Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

All hail the time of the bunny!

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

the 10% who apparently lack object permanence

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty. ~Thomas Jefferson

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Innocent people do not delay justice.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

Mediocre white men think RFK Jr’s pathetic midlife crisis is inspirational. The bar is set so low for them, it’s subterranean.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 330: Just a Brief Update Tonight

War for Ukraine Day 330: Just a Brief Update Tonight

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It has been a very, very, very long short week. Not necessarily a bad one, but a very, very, very long one. So I’m just going to hit the basics because I need to go and crash.

Before we go any farther, Another Scott managed to track down NEIVANMADE’s store and posted the link in a comment last night. He also posted an interview with NEIVANMADE. Here’s an excerpt:

The world will remember February 24, 2022 as the day when Ukrainian lives changed forever. Russia’s large-scale military invasion of Ukraine has led to horrific outcomes for citizens, leaving families without homes and taking thousands of innocent lives. In the face of unthinkable violence, the brave people of Ukraine have shown incredible resilience. Many have joined the fight by either enlisting in the armed forces or finding ways to use their unique skills to help their native Ukraine. In the city of Lviv, Hiatus Games art director Mykhailo Skop is one of many artists creating posters, stickers, and cards protesting the war.

Popping up all over the city, these pieces of art have been a rallying cry for the resistance and a way of documenting the history that’s unfolding. In collaboration with fellow Ukrainian artists, Skop launched the Help Ukraine shop and made their poster designs available for the world to purchase, with 100% of earnings going to humanitarian aid in Ukraine. Their designs raise funds for nonprofit organizations including the Voices of Children Foundation and UNICEF, which are actively delivering relief to those in the crossfire of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

As the war wages on, one of Skop’s biggest concerns is the media losing focus on Ukraine’s struggles. Russia’s aggression continues and Ukrainian families still need support, so it’s important for the world to keep its eye on this ongoing conflict. We recently caught up with Skop to get his perspective on the war and to learn how we can all help Ukraine.

Tell us about the concept behind your Artist Shop. How did it come together?
Mykhailo Skop: I’m an Art Director at a Ukrainian board game developers studio, Hiatus Games. You might remember our last game, Deus Lo Vult, or, more likely, the medieval memes that people made out of it. Those memes became more popular than the game itself. They appeared in places like Bored Panda, EL PAÍS, etc. Eventually, we opened our merchandise store on Threadless. Why Threadless? Because we’ve been buying stuff from there since 2013. (I can’t help but mention that many of those t-shirts from 2013 are still in decent shape!)

Then, the Russian invasion broke out and things changed. All our team went volunteering. I started making posters to support our people in their struggles. These posters became popular and we decided to launch a new nonprofit initiative on Threadless called Help Ukraine, so people of the world could have an opportunity to buy original prints and support Ukrainian war victims.

You are donating proceeds from your shop to the Voices of Children Foundation. Why did you choose this particular charity and what are they doing to help the people of Ukraine?
MS: Try to remember your own childhood. Did a real tragedy happen to you? What did it feel like back then? How did this affect you? Imagine thousands of kids in Ukraine lucky enough to stay alive. Many of those had their parents killed right before them. Some have been brutally raped and tortured. Hundreds of thousands of children lost their families, homes, friends, and dreams. Their lives were flooded by darkness, and I doubt this harm could ever be undone. We’re fighting for the future for these kids. And we have to make every effort to give them all the help and support they need now to cope with these horrors somehow.

What role does art play in times of conflict like these?
MS: I believe that visuals have immense power. The meaning and significance they carry can speak much clearer and more impressively than text or even a documentary. Visual artists have many communicative tools and methods to address every spectator. Thus, they can use their art to raise soldiers’ morale, power up volunteers’ enthusiasm, and build up support for those who need it. But the main problem with delivering messages through art these days is that it’s tough to get through the media’s white noise, grab the viewer’s attention, and stay in their minds.

Photographs of Russian crimes on Ukrainian land are appalling. Razed cities, mutilated bodies of civilians, thousands of graves… but no matter how terrible these photos are, the audience will get used to this war sooner or later. Just as they got used to the same images from Syria, Georgia, and many other warzones. That’s why the artist’s role in a modern war is primarily to use the most potent images and symbols to overcome the media noise and not let people become lukewarm and indifferent. Because war is not “somewhere over there,” it’s right here, close to you, next to everyone, ready to spread around further.

Much, much, much more at the link!

And remember to click through to his store and do some shopping!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today is the day of Ramstein – and defense news for Ukraine, which our diplomatic marathon brings week after week.

Not everything can be announced in public – what is being talked about in Ramstein. It is a closed-door discussion – and it should be.

But in general, we can conclude that today’s Ramstein will strengthen our resilience.

The partners are firm in their attitude – they will support Ukraine as much as necessary for our victory.

Yes, we will still have to fight for the supply of modern tanks, but every day we make it more obvious there is no alternative to making the decision on tanks.

I addressed the participants in the Ramstein meeting today, our Defense Contact Group. And I thank all the partners who firmly supported the Ukrainian position in the discussions that took place.

In general, several things were achieved during the week. It’s what our diplomatic marathon, which has been going on since my visit to Washington, has brought.

Daily calls and negotiations. Public and non-public.

We’ve managed to significantly strengthen our artillery fist. It’s extremely strong – both guns and rounds.

We have good results with armored vehicles – several hundred combat vehicles have been added to our arsenal.

Significant results concerning rockets for multiple launch rocket systems and our anti-aircraft guns.

One of the biggest defense packages has been announced by the United States. And I thank President Biden, all the congressmen, all Americans who KNOW that freedom cannot lose.

Thanks to our European allies – all the countries that this week took another step in supporting our common defense. Denmark, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, the UK, Finland, Netherlands and others – thank you!

Thanks to Canada – and personally to Prime Minister Trudeau!

The only thing worth emphasizing is the time, the delivery time. Each agreement must be implemented as quickly as possible – for our defense.

The next week, for which we are already preparing, should also bring its defensive fruits.

Today, I met with the US senators who arrived in Kyiv – Messrs. Graham, Blumenthal and Whitehouse. Thank you for meaningful negotiations.

This year, it’s extremely important not to slow down the pace of our cooperation – between Ukraine and the United States – in all spheres. I’m sure it will be so.

The main topic is, of course, defense. Protection of our sky, tanks for Ukraine, we need long-range missiles to liberate our territory. I heard understanding of our needs.

I spoke with President of Türkiye Erdoğan. About the general situation on the battlefield in Ukraine and in our Black Sea region. About how to implement specific points of our Peace Formula – useful for absolutely everyone in the world. I thank Mr. President for supporting our security vision.

Today, the ceremony of receiving credentials from the new ambassadors of the partner states that arrived in Ukraine took place. These are Finland, Cyprus, Austria and Libya.

I signed the decree to award our soldiers – 153 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Fighters of the 30th, 53rd, 92nd, 93rd and 110th mechanized brigades, 56th motorized infantry brigade, 60th infantry brigade and 102nd ground defense brigade.

I thank everyone who fights for Ukraine!

And one more thing.

Today is the Day of Remembrance of Defenders of Donetsk Airport. It was one of the hardest and important battles for Ukraine. It was the battle in which modern Ukrainians found our eternal strength. It’s that strength that saved Ukraine, it’s that strength that demonstrates our steel spirit in the extraordinary resilience and bravery of Ukrainians on the battlefield.

I thank everyone who withstood then. I thank everyone who helped then.

Great tribute to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine – after February 24, after 2014 and always when our people defended themselves!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s remarks to the meeting of allied defense officials at Ramstein Air Force Base earlier today:

The following statement from Secretary Austin can be read two different way. I’m not sure which one is the right way, so keep that in mind when you read it and when you see others respond/react to it:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

Here’s an interesting and provocative thread by SAIS Hopkins Professor Sergey Radchenko:

Nothing to see here. Or worry about.

I think the real question is whether this air defense battery was installed because Putin is worried about Ukraine targeting him or Prigozhin?

Speaking of Prigozhin, a Tanzanian student who went to Moscow for college committed a crime, was convicted, and was in a Russian prison. Until he accepted Prigozhin’s offer to fight for Wagner in Ukraine in exchange for a pardon. Several month’s ago he was killed in action. His family was only recently notified. And Wagner/Prigozhin has been holding on to his body at an undisclosed location. Which is in the video in the two tweet thread below. I want you to focus on where Wagner was displaying his remains, how it is set up, the decorations. I’ll have the machine translations of both tweets below the thread:

A citizen of Tanzania Tarimo Nemes Raymond went to Moscow to study and this stupid idea ended for him in prison, PMC Wagner and a stupid death on 10/24/22 as a result of shelling near the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut

After his death, his body lay in an unknown place for more than two months

The BBC has more:

Nemes Tarimo’s family in Tanzania warned him against agreeing to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine, but the 33-year-old had a big incentive to sign up.

It is now three weeks since his relatives learnt of the news that confirmed their worst fears. He had died in combat.

Everyone at the family home in the city of Dar es Salaam looks exhausted as they wait for news about when his body might come back.

The waiting is taking its toll.

There are about 15 people in the compound, and relatives are coming in and out all day wanting to hear if there are any updates.

One says they last heard from him in October when he had said he had agreed to sign up with the Russian mercenary group Wagner.

“Nemes informed me and some other family members about joining Wagner, and we advised him not to,” the family member, who did not want to give their name, tells the BBC.

But for the young man, who relatives describe as polite, God-fearing and supportive, there was an offer that was hard to resist.

The family says that Tarimo, who had ambitions to be an MP with the opposition Chadema party, had been in Moscow as an ICT master’s student at the Russian Technological University. But he was then imprisoned some time after January 2021 for what were described as drugs-related offences.

Last year, he was enticed with a deal: sign up and be pardoned or stay in prison.

“He said he would join to free himself,” the relative says.

This case echoes that of 23-year-old Zambian student Lemekhani Nyirenda, who had also been in prison in Russia and died last year fighting with Wagner.

Zambian Foreign Minister Stanley Kakubo told parliament that he had been informed about how prisoners could be pardoned if they agreed to fight.

Last September, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin was seen in leaked footage outlining the rules of fighting, such as no deserting or sexual contact with Ukrainian women, and then giving the prisoners five minutes to decide if they want to sign up.

Tarimo’s family has learnt that he died at the end of October while on a combat mission in Ukraine with Wagner.

“We last communicated with him on 17 October, when he was already a member of Wagner.

“We then got information in December from his friends over his death,” which according to media reports, was a result of Ukrainian artillery fire.

The Federal News Agency, a Russian broadcaster used by Mr Prigozhin to boost his group’s reputation, has published a video of what it said was Tarimo’s memorial service in a chapel in the town of Goryachiy Klyuch. It reported that he had died on 24 October near Bakhmut, the scene of intense fighting in recent months.

Russia’s state-owned domestic news agency, Ria Novosti, interviewed someone who said he had fought alongside Tarimo. He said the Tanzanian had died while trying to help a wounded soldier.

The Federal News Agency says that Tarimo was awarded a posthumous medal “for courage” by the Wagner Group.

More at the link!

There’s a “they saw the light” joke in here somewhere:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here’s some adjacent material:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

63Comments

  1. 1.

    Martin

    This diplomacy over the tanks is interesting. Kinda frustrating.

    The US votes for German Leopard-2 tanks to be exported, but Germany votes no because they want to force the US to unlock Abrams for export. That way if Russia gets pissed, Germany has bought the US into the pool that Putin plans on pissing in. Yeah, I’d do that too if I were Germany. If we’re gonna do tanks, we *all* do tanks.

    Austen’s statement is encouraging. I know the US thinks the Abrams is too logistically complex for Ukraine. Okay. That’s not Germany’s point, though. Germany just wants to know the US is as committed here to whatever escalation Putin might offer up and I think one tank does that. That said, how complex really can the Abrams be if Iraq can operate them?

  3. 3.

    Geminid

    I found this item in this morning’s Politico Playbook:

         CIA Director Bill Burns met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy secretly in Kyiv last week, Wapo’s Jon Hudson scooped (link). Burns wanted to lay out what the U.S. expects Russia to do in the next weeks and months. Zelenskyy and Ukrainian officials pressed Burns on whether the Republican takeover of the House will dampen U.S. aid to Ukraine.

    It being a secret meeting, the U.S. official briefing Hudson on the meeting was not too specific about the discussions. I found this part of Hudson’s article interesting:

        Burns is a respected figure among Zelenskyy’s inner circle because of his accurate warning in January that Russian forces would seek to capture Antonov Airport (link) in the opening stages of the Feb. 24 invasion. His message, delivered in person, is credited with helping Ukraine prepare to defend the airport and deny Russia a foothold needed to capture Ukraine (link).

    Hopefully the following is a good link to Hudson’s “scoop”:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/01/19/cia-william-burns-zelensky-ukraine-russia/

  4. 4.

    Anonymous At Work

    What would it take to get Germany moving?  Is it a question of X:1 matching donations by the US, or, more darkly a question of rubles?  It’s not like Germany has a hostile power on its borders or has committed to holding a border against aggression, besides Russia’s aggression as a reason to hold back military aid.

  5. 5.

    Betty

    @Martin: A spokesperson said the Abrams uses jet fuel while the Leopard uses diesel and is more suitable to the terrain. Maintenance is also more complex for the Abrams. There seem to be legitimate reasions for Ukraine to get a few of the 2,000 Leopards in Europe if Germany would give permission to those who want to send them.

  6. 6.

    Another Scott

    Radchenko’s thread sounds to me like he thinks he’s got the One Weird Trick.

    I don’t think it will work, and more than that, I think if he thinks it will work he hasn’t been paying attention.

    1) Erdogan is vetoing membership for Finland and Sweden unless they do what he wants against the Kurds he doesn’t like and other political opponents. What would his price be for Ukraine??

    2) NATO has a new-member process, for good reasons. Article 5 really is A Thing. Is Orban going to be willing to go to war for Ukraine??

    3) The US nuclear umbrella applies outside of NATO. Ukraine is already a major partner as outlined in the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership (from November 2021):

    The United States and Ukraine share a vital national interest in a strong, independent, and democratic Ukraine. Bolstering Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against threats to its territorial integrity and deepening Ukraine’s integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions are concurrent priorities.

    The United States recognizes Ukraine’s unique contribution to nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament and reaffirms its commitments under the “Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons” (the Budapest Memorandum) of December 5, 1994.

    Guided by the April 3, 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration of the NATO North Atlantic Council and as reaffirmed in the June 14, 2021 Brussels Summit Communique of the NATO North Atlantic Council, the United States supports Ukraine’s right to decide its own future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO.

    Many nations have made it clear that a nuclear attack on Ukraine would be catastrophic for VVP.

    4) If things get bad enough that VVP decides to use nuclear weapons, how would having US or NATO personnel officially there change that calculus? No US-NATO:
    “Oh woe! I’m losing! I have to use nuclear weapons even though I will lose anyway!!” With US-NATO: “Oh woe! I’m losing! I’ve threatened to use nuclear weapons if I’m losing, so I will lose if I don’t use them, even though I will lose anyway!!”

    ???

    IOW, the calculation is the same whether there are officially US-NATO troops in Ukraine at the time or not, it seems to me. VVP using nuclear weapons would be a threat to the world, and would be treated as such.

    Why? How? Because it won’t change Ukraine’s determination to keep fighting, it won’t achieve any sensible military or terror objectives, and it will tell the world that he is too dangerous to permit to stay in power because he refuses to abide by the rules of deterrence and staying within the norms of the international order. If he can set-off nukes in Ukraine, then he can do so anywhere else, and no treaty or agreement or norm or law would constrain him. And then so could Kim or Khamenei or Netanyahu or …

    All that said, Ukraine joining NATO should happen as soon as they have demonstrated they’re ready (by meeting all the requirements within their power to meet). The requirement about “no border disputes” should be ignored because it was clearly VVP’s intent that it act as a veto on her membership.

    My $0.02.

    Thanks Adam.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  7. 7.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Another Scott: I don’t know Radchenko, so I won’t speculate on what he thinks, but it seems he’s just laying out a case for Ukraine to be in NATO. Which others are doing as well – Henry Fucking Kissinger did so the other day.

  8. 8.

    Roger Moore

    @Betty:

    A spokesperson said the Abrams uses jet fuel while the Leopard uses diesel and is more suitable to the terrain.

    As I understand it, the turbine engine in the Abrams can work just fine on regular diesel, though in US use it normally uses JP-8.  It’s possible that fuel without the right additives might encounter build-ups or something similar that would require extra maintenance.  The bigger issues, and I understand it are the terrain- the Abrams is heavy, and I think it is more likely to sink into the mud than Russian designs like the T-72- and general maintenance.  The Abrams is a wonderfully capable tank, but it depends on the incredible logistical capabilities of the US military to work.  That’s not just being able to provide enough fuel for its very thirsty engine but also being able to have the mechanics to keep it working.  That said, the Abrams is used by other countries, including Egypt and Iraq, so Ukraine probably ought to be able to make it work.

  10. 10.

    Another Scott

    @Mallard Filmore: “Rail repairs are scheduled to be completed in September”

    “I’ll see you next time when the bridge is certainly targeted again.”

    Ha!

    But another reason to try to win the war ASAP – we don’t want VVP trying to move more stuff across that bridge into Ukraine.

    Thanks for the pointer.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  11. 11.

    Another Scott

    @Mike in NC:

    Reuters (from October 24):

    WHERE ARE THE REPLACEMENTS COMING FROM?
    Germany is sourcing more gas from Benelux countries, Norway, and France.

    Germany imported 37.6% of gas from Norway in September compared with 19.2% in the same month last year, while Dutch deliveries climbed to 29.6% of imports from 13.7%, data from utility industry group BDEW showed.

    Russian volumes were zero in September, having accounted for 60% in September 2021, BDEW said.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  12. 12.

    Bill Arnold

    @Mike in NC:

    Scholz clearly cares more about that sweet Russian gas than he does about Ukraine.

    Maybe, but at the moment Germany is importing either zero or very very little Russian natural gas.

  13. 13.

    lowtechcyclist

    Skop: “no matter how terrible these photos are, the audience will get used to this war sooner or later. Just as they got used to the same images from Syria, Georgia, and many other warzones.”

    It may be that the world gets used to the images coming from Ukraine, but did we ever “get used to” similar images from Syria or Georgia? I was reading the dead-trees WaPo into mid-2009, and don’t recall seeing much if anything in the way of pictures from Georgia.

    And I doubt that Americans saw many pictures of the destruction in Syria because 98% of Americans don’t give a damn about Syria, and the people running the media know this. I know I’ve heard more about Syria since February 24th than I’d heard in the previous decade, even including the whole bit about Obama’s ‘red line.’ And the reason I’ve heard about Syria since then is that Putin’s doing the same thing to Ukraine as he’s done to whatever parts of Syria he doesn’t like, and people are pointing that out.

  14. 14.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Martin: ​
     

    Germany just wants to know the US is as committed here to whatever escalation Putin might offer up and I think one tank does that

    And what is this one tank going to do? We are already providing Bradleys (which are not tanks and no one other than Michal Tracey says they are) and they are damned good combined arms tools.

    .

  15. 15.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott: Turkiye and Ukraine had good political, economic, and security relations before this war, and I expect they will after. And when Russia suspended the Black Sea grain shipments, Erdogan backed them down. I don’t think Turkiye will stand in the way of Ukraine’s accession to NATO any more than would say, France.

    Erdogan is trying drive as hard a bargain as he can over Finland’s and Sweden’s membership, but he knows he’s not going to get what he wants from Sweden regarding that country’s large population of Kurdish immigrants.  Erdogan wants to appear tough to his countrymen because there is an election in June.

    Erdogan is stubborn man but he is a a realist. He knows he’s not going to get extradited Kurdish dissidents out of Sweden. He will settle for the Swedes cracking down on financial aid to Kurdish guerrilla groups, I think.

    Erdogan has obviously played a double game in this war. Turkiye still trades with Russia even as it build warships for Ukraine, and backs up the grain shipments with its naval and air power. Erdogan is a Turkish nationalist, not a Russian sympathizer. He’s pursuing his country’s interests, and a strong Russia has never been in Turkiye interests. I think he’ll deal on Sweden’s and Finland’s entry into NATO, even as he plays hard to get.

  16. 16.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Martin: It’d be nice if that were what was really going on.  But I don’t think so.  What does Scholz mean by “we’re gonna all be on the hook for this (or no tanks)” ?  I can imagine two competing theories (maybe there are more):

    (1) When and if Russia gets angry and starts lobbing weapons at us, I want them to be be angry at the US, and to either attack both of us, or neither (collective responsibility and defense)
    (2) When and if this war is over, I want to be able to tell Vova that it wasn’t my fault, I tried to do everything to not get heavily involved, but I was forced by the bad old US (so please Vova, give us that sweet, sweet sweeeeet gas)

    And I think the answer is that it’s #2.  B/c #1, FFS, the US has been on the hook since 1949 to protect Germany.  Scholz is FUCKING SMOKING SOMETHING if he thinks that he needs fucking security assurances from THE US: we’ve been backing up his security for his entire fucking life.  So what’s really going on is that Scholz is trying to set himself (and Germany) up for the postwar, when they want to be as cozy with Russia as they can fucking be.

    It’s disgusting.

  17. 17.

    tobie

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen Ukrainians this angry at Germany. Germany has set several benchmarks for delivering Leopards. When these benchmarks are met, it sets new ones. I think the latest — hey, US, you send Abrams first, and then we’ll follow with Leopards — is a smokescreen. Germany doesn’t want to be too aligned with Ukraine in case Ukraine loses. This is their cold political calculus.

    @Chetan Murthy: I agree…this sucks.

  18. 18.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @tobie: I still think that Germany doesn’t have enough tanks in ready-to-go condition and, being German, would rather look like assholes than incompetent.

  21. 21.

    HinTN

    @Martin: I agree with your analysis but point you to what Adam has repeatedly said about fueling the engines in the Abrams. It’s another logistic challenge, not a technical one. That said, the word “issue” is very specific and Sec. Austin’s use of it in this way is encouraging and supports your argument.

  22. 22.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Omnes Omnibus: And something else, too: we’ve read a few times that the Poles haven’t even submitted the paperwork to *ask* for permission to transfer Leopards.  As if that lockstep bureaucracy should be necessary and inevitable.  As if it’s *impossible* for Scholz to say on the record “When our NATO allies ask for permission to export Leopards to Ukraine, we will be saying “yes” instanter”.

    This also is a bullshit smokescreen.  Scholz doesn’t want to say “yes”, it’s that simple.  It’s.  That.  Simple.

  23. 23.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Chetan Murthy: ​
      Yes, in fact, it does. If the Poles, for example, have working Leopards that they can donate, it makes the Germans, who do not, look bad in a way that matters to them.

  24. 24.

    Chetan Murthy

    @tobie: Ain’t no “trying” about it, eh?  They’re flat-out saying “no”.  Gonna be some broken crockery pretty soon between the CEE countries (and NL and Spain) and Germany.

  26. 26.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Omnes Omnibus: You’re proposing a third theory:

    (3) the state of Germany’s defense stocks is so parlous, that they literally  cannot afford to part with even a few Leopards.  And they’re so *embarrassed* by that, this they’re willing to block anybody else from giving Ukraine Leopards, just so nobody can find out that Germany has no pants on.

    That’s …. well, I guess that’s possible.  But it’s actually even *worse* than “we’re doing it b/c we want to be well-positioned for the postwar, when we want Russia’s gas again”.  It’s “we’re fucking cowards”.  And if that were really true, I’d think that a well-placed leak from the CIA (or DGSE (of France)) should expose it to the world, so we could get past it.

    I don’t think this third theory is anywhere near as compelling as the money motive: we already know that Russia compromised Schroeder, why wouldn’t they have compromised large numbers of Germany politicians and businessmen with their gas money?

  27. 27.

    tobie

    @Chetan Murthy: Germany’s reluctance to help Ukraine in this crisis is unconscionable. And it goes back a long way. Merkel herself pushed Ukraine to accept territorial losses in 2014 in exchange for peace. She should have known better. Appeasement in the face of a dictator doesn’t work.

    I found this article balanced regarding Ukraine-German relations prior to the current war.

  28. 28.

    HinTN

    @Omnes Omnibus: It’s not their tanks. It’s their permission for others to send those Leopards that’s at issue.

    ETA: All of the above about Germany is probably true and at play.

  31. 31.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Omnes Omnibus: Regardless, both your theory and my “money” theory predict that absent some really severe arm-twisting, Scholz will refuse to permit others to deliver Leopards.  Let’s see what happens.

  33. 33.

    Geminid

    @HinTN: Germany says it wants the US to contribute a number of tanks comparable to their number of tanks they would contribute. One Abrams would not cut it.

  34. 34.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: Tanks require a logistics tail, spare parts, etc.  I worry that when Poland needs those from Germany, Scholz says “no”.  B/c fucking venal sonofabitch.

  36. 36.

    tobie

    @Omnes Omnibus: @Chetan Murthy: Germany’s defense minister had to resign last week after a series of embarrassments, one of which is that the country’s lighter and more versatile tank, the Puma, ended up not being ready to be deployed as planned. According to this article in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the Puma was supposed to replace the Leopard. Does this explain Germany’s reluctance to give Ukraine Leopard tanks??? I don’t know. But you do get the sense that the country is struggling with a series of mishaps that have called into question its self-conception as a model of efficiency.

  37. 37.

    Another Scott

    @Chetan Murthy: I think another element of this is that Germany just fired their defense minister.  It’s also important to remember that Germany’s government is a 3-way coalition that is unpopular (something like 30% support with the public) – they have to find a way to keep the wheels on while they rebuild public support.

    Some Leopard numbers from a Bloomberg interactive graph:

    Spain: 327
    Portugal: 37
    Greece: 353
    Turkey: 316
    Germany: 321 + estimated 200 in storage
    Poland: 247
    Norway: 36
    Sweden: 120
    Finland: 200
    Denmark: 44

    And some others:

    Switzerland: 134
    Austria: 56

    (The world would have to turn upside down for neutral Switzerland and neutral Austria to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine.)

    Maybe Germany wants unanimity among the non-neutral Leopard 2 operators before making an announcement. Maybe Scholz wants to figure out a way to get his coalition partners on the same page. Maybe Pistorius feels he has to get an understanding of the state of the Leopard 2 inventory and supply chains before getting out over his skis promising Leopard 2s in the war before he knows they can be supported with required spares and maintenance items.

    I assume all of these people are of good will and are trying to help Ukraine as quickly and efficiently as possible, because they know VVP is a threat to all of them (and all of us). I assume we’ll know more soon.

    We’ll see!

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  38. 38.

    Geminid

    @Gin & Tonic: Scholz can say, “That’s does it! You’ll never get another Leopard from us again!”

    And the Poles can say, “Leopards? We don’t need no stinking Leopards! The South Korean Black Panthers are better tanks, they cost less, and Hyundai Heavy Industries can produce a hundred tanks in the same amount of time it takes you slowpokes to produce ten.”

  39. 39.

    Gin & Tonic

    At the risk of kicking what on a few previous nights has been a hornet’s nest, I refer readers to this interesting Twitter thread by a Kazakh-American (he prefers to spell it “Qazaq”) which starts out about those “Yurts of Invincibility” but goes on to attitudes toward russian imperialism. If you want some idea of how Ukrainians (or Georgians, or Moldovans, or Kazakhs, or Estonians…) came to their feelings about “good russians” this thread is a good starting point.

  40. 40.

    Another Scott

    @tobie: There was a story on NPR a few days ago about Germany’s horrible bureaucracy when it comes to many things in their military.  E.g. they’re still using analog radios for communications (rather than secure digital radios). It’s well worth a listen, or a read of the transcript.

    SCHMITZ: Back in his office, Peters says Chancellor Scholtz’s pledge of $100 billion for Germany’s military ignited a process within KMW.

    PETERS: It took us only days, like with other companies, to present a whole list of products that we might be able to deliver to the German government.

    SCHMITZ: On KMW’s list were Leopard tanks, self-propelled howitzers and the Boxer, a modular vehicle that within minutes can be changed from an artillery weapon to a medevac vehicle. That list was delivered to Berlin last March.

    PETERS: Regrettably, the 100 billion special budget takes time to become effective. So we haven’t seen a single euro yet this year from that budget. As of today, there has been no payments out of that yet.

    SCHMITZ: In other words, weapons manufacturers like KMW are waiting for the German government to order weapons, just like German troops are waiting for their government to change their outdated radio communication system or like Kyiv is waiting for Berlin to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine.

    Germany is trying to quickly change decades of policies and procedures and there are understandable difficulties in doing so.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  41. 41.

    Shalimar

    @Gin & Tonic: Can the Polish army provide ammunition and maintenance for the Leopards without Germany?  That seems like a key issue, in addition to violating the pruchase/lease agreements.

  42. 42.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Shalimar: I don’t know about the logistics chain, but are you suggesting that Poland has (as Another Scott cites) 247 Leopards and no ammunition?

  43. 43.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: One would hope the Leopard’s main gun uses NATO-standard shells.  But the real problem is spare parts, right?  Tanks break down.  You need spare parts to fix ’em.  And like every other NATO country, I’ll bet Poland didn’t overstock on spare parts.  So when UA uses those Leopards like crazy, they’ll need a *ton* of spare parts.  Hence the problem.

  45. 45.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: Yes, thank you for this pointer.  I’m unsurprised by any of this.  Wasn’t it that well-respected Kazakh journalist who tore Putin a new one a few weeks back ?  It ain’t like the FSU states like Russia: up until now, they’ve just had to *tolerate* it.  They know what Russia did, and more importantly, [ok, I’ll leave the rest out, b/c too many people wanna believe three impossible things before breakfast]

  46. 46.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott: I don’t think Turkiye is going to give up any of their Leopards either.

    This whole discussion got me wondering about how many tanks Ukraine has now. A quick search led to an article on Forbes that said they started the war with 1000 Russian model tanks and have lost 400. Since the war began they’ve received Russian model tanks from former East Bloc NATO countries and have captured a number of usable tanks.

    Understandably, Ukraine is keeping its own force levels to itself. But they want those Leopards, and they need them to help run the Russian Army out of occupied Ukraine this year.

    Ukraine cannot let this war drag on, for many reasons. One , I think, is that a continued statemate will degrade public support in the countries that now back Ukraine.

  47. 47.

    Ksmiami

    @Geminid: part of the reason Germany lost Ww2 was the complexity of their weapons and tanks etc… so, yeah Europe can find other suppliers…

  48. 48.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, …

    While Germany still doesn't want to deliver any tanks to Ukraine, the Netherlands already moved on to speak openly about delivering fighter aircraft.https://t.co/aVHpm3sAhp

    — Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) January 20, 2023

    Interesting.

    Discussions, and leaks about discussions, are a necessary first step.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  49. 49.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: Not just spare parts. Tanks need specialized recovery vehicles or else some statistically-regular attrition rate due to just driving them around, over hill, over dale, results in their being abandoned in ditches. Plus maintainer training, including mechanical, electronics/comms/nav, weapons, without which they also rot away. It’s Hertling-Kos, all the way down…

  52. 52.

    Chetan Murthy

    @coin operated: Carlo’s talking about big-ass trailers for hauling away tanks that have lost treads, etc.  Recovery vehicles are very specialized when  the tank is all kinds of incapacitated.  And as I read a few days ago,  NATO countries are noticeably poor in these support vehicles (they skimped when it came to buying ’em) so it’s gonna hurt any way you slice it.

  53. 53.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic: Good thread, and IMO not at all an off-limits or risky topic.

    It does seem to me, without reading the rest of Khodorkovsky’s thread, that the singled-out tweet doesn’t really bear all the weight attributed to it. Quite aside from the fact that absent more context it is not clear how Khodorkovsky himself feels about Russia “losing central Asia,” even if he does feel a loss, it is easy to find analogous comments by US politicians of the past few decades speaking of Latin America as “our back yard” in a manner that is perfectly infuriating to citizens of Central and South American nations.

    Which is not at all to say that the situations are comparable. But the sensitivities certainly are. Yanquis often have difficulty getting the benefit of the doubt in Latin America even today, because of a history of abuses that most modern Americans would just as soon decry and disavow. Going back to the British Imperial period and its post-1945 hangover, it is hilariously easy to find even more tone-deaf patronizing quotations concerning former or soon-to-be-former colonies. It is at least possible that the attitude revealed by Khodorkovsky’s remarks merely represent attitudes as unexamined as those of many Americans fifty years ago, rather than a positive will to empire.

    I go back and forth on the medium-term outlook for Russian political development. Near-term, it seems clear that the country needs to go into a cage behind some kind of cordon sanitaire. I can’t accept fatalistic teleologisms based on The Russian Immutable Character, however. Modernity has had its erosive way with multiple toxic imperialisms the world over. I have some faith that it can corrode Russian imperialism as well, given time.

  54. 54.

    Geminid

    @Ksmiami: I had not realized that South Korea had such a productive armaments industry until I read a Washington Post article last month, about Poland’s first delivery of South Korean K-2 main battle tanks* and K-9 self propelled 155mm howitzers. The Polish president was at the port and made a speech praising South Korea’s ability to deliver large orders quickly. These were the first installment of orders for 1000 K-2s and 600 K-9s.

    The story said that when the U.S. reduced its force presence in South Korea towards the end of the last century, that nation decided to establish a strong domestic arms industry. Hyundai Heavy Industries was tapped to be a principal manufacturer. Americans know Hyundai for its automobiles, but it was already the world’s largest shipbuilder when the first Hyundai SUV rolled onto an American highway.

    There is a sticking point, though. Careful of its bilateral relations with Russia, South Korea will not provide weapons to Ukraine. The Post article did cite a Wall Street Journal report from October that described a deal between the US and South Korea whereby the US would purchase a large amount of 155mm artillery shells that would then be forwarded to Ukraine. A South Korean official denied that Ukraine was the end-user but it sounded like a pro-forma denial.

     

    * I took a quick glance at the Wikipedia article on the K-2 “Black Panther.” They have 12 cylinder diesel engines that weigh over a ton. The dimensions section listed a height and an “extended” height. It sounded like the tank can rise, I guess to take a shot, and then lower itself. That made me think of those “low rider” jalopies that used to be favored by custom car fans, and maybe still are.

  55. 55.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Geminid: Hilarious!

    In-arm Suspension Unit (ISU)[edit]

    K2 demonstrating attitude control function

    The Black Panther fields an advanced semi-active suspension system, called the in-arm suspension unit (ISU), which allows for individual control of every bogie on the tracks. This attitude control function can tilt the chassis or lower the overall height by 40 cm (16 in).[57] This allows the K2 to “sit”, “stand” and “kneel”, as well as “lean” towards one side or a corner. “Sitting” gives the tank a lower profile and offers superior handling over roads. “Standing” gives the vehicle higher ground clearance for maneuverability over rough terrain.[14]

    “Kneeling” augments the angular range in which the tank’s gun barrel can elevate and depress, allowing the vehicle to fire its main gun downhill as well as engage low-flying aircraft more effectively. Using the suspension system, K2 is able to elevate its main gun up to 24 degrees, which allows a curved trajectory attack at a hovering helicopter target 5 km (3.1 mi) away.[70] The suspension unit also cushions the chassis from vibrations when travelling over uneven terrain, as the bogies can be adjusted individually on-the-fly.

  56. 56.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Carlo Graziani: Khodorkovsky is just one example. It is damned difficult to find a high-profile russian, even among those living outside the country, who even acknowledge russian imperialism, let alone oppose it.

  57. 57.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: I’ve read that most of the power elite come from Muscovy (Moscow/St Pete), and the same is true of the “liberal opposition”.  So at some level, they’re all from the same social milieu.  Some of the liberals were mourning when Dugin’s (filthy) daughter got assassinated for example.  And so this means that they all come up in a world that accepts Russian imperialism as the default.

    I also remember several long-term foreign policy types (including McFaul) who pointed out that a number of the current Kremlin sockpuppets (like Solovyov) got their start as “liberal journalists” who even had a reputation for independence and holding officials accountable.  But …. well, at the end of the day, they were all bought off.  It’s also been noted that there really isn’t any bona fide opposition in Russia: the “opposition parties” are managed by Putin to give the appearance of pluralism without the reality.  Yet another reason that imperialism isn’t questioned.

    By contrast, when one goes out to the provinces, one can find bona fide anti-imperial movements — ethnic  movements fighting for regional or ethnic autonomy and rights.  They’re all over Russia.  Just, y’know, stomped-on by the authorities every chance they get.  Ukraine has started reaching out to these groups and trying to provide at least moral support.

  58. 58.

    Geminid

    @Chetan Murthy: In “sitting” position the K-2 is 2 meters tall. “Standing” position makes it 2.4 meters tall.

    The K-2 also has a watertight turret and engine compartment, and a snorkel attachment that enables it to cross rivers up to 13 feet  deep.

    Corrections to earlier comments: At $8,6 million, the K-2 is the world’s most expensive tank. The 1500 horsepower, 12 cylinder engine weighs 2500 kilograms.

  59. 59.

    patrick II

    The last I looked the Abrams had about 30,000 parts — and none of them in metric which means the majority of standard tools the Ukrainians have will be useless.   Keeping them running will not be an easy task.  They all come with a standard repair kit and some parts for most common field problems, but the rest of the logistics will be a problem.

  60. 60.

    Geminid

    @Chetan Murthy:

     

    @Geminid: I read that the South Koreans originally incorporate these features into the K-2 because of the countries hilly terrain. The tanks needed to be able to fire at targets higher or lower than the tank.

    These features are interesting but are not very relevant to the war in Ukraine since the South Koreans will not allow K-2s to be used there. Their high rate of production is an important factor though, because it will enable Poland to free its Leopards sooner, if Germany will countenance that tank’s transfer to Ukraine.

    I read that South Korea has a deal with Turkiye whereby that country will be licensed to produce the Black Panther, similar to the way Turkiye has produced the F-16.

    South Korea’s unwillingness to sell arms to Russia stems from its fraught security environment. They feel they cannot afford to make an enemy of Russia, which was a major power in the region. Now that Russia has been exposed as weaker than expected, South Korea may be recalculating this problem. That could be why, if the WSG story I refer to at #54 is correct, South Korea decided last Fall to send artillery shells to Ukraine by way of the U.S.

  61. 61.

    Geminid

    I read in an Asia Times article from last October that the new “Abrams X” tank will ditch the turbine engineis favor of a hybrid diesel power train. It will be able to move short distances quietly under battery power. The new design features an “unmanned turret” with an autoloader which reduces the crew from 4 to 3, and lowers the tanks profile. There is also a 30mm chain gun. It appears the U.S. canceled its “Future Battle Tank” program and instead incorporated more modern features into the Abrams platform.

  62. 62.

    Another Scott

    @patrick II: Google found this for me:

    The M1 series of tanks, I crewed everything up to the M1A1, had both. We carried 13, 15 and 18mm 1/2″ drive and 24 and 30mm 3/4″ drive sockets. Also there were 13/15mm and 7/16-1/2″ open end wrenches. I recall using the metric wrenches most. The track components were all 30mm.

    They are just tools and parts. It’s only an issue if you have to mix threads (or plumbing. Have I mentioned how much I hate plumbing??!).

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  63. 63.

    Chetan Murthy

    It’s Sushko, so who knows if it’s for real, but:

    🚨 BREAKTHROUGH: After #Netherlands announced they can supply F-16s to #Ukraine, we now have the following statement from US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter:
    US will support the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by allies. pic.twitter.com/Pk7Li0o5Fj
    — Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) January 21, 2023

    I’ll look for confirmation that Carpenter actually said this.

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