Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Consistently wrong since 2002

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

The words do not have to be perfect.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 338: Russia Unloads on Ukraine Again

War for Ukraine Day 338: Russia Unloads on Ukraine Again

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Ukrainians! Ukrainians! And all our partners!

Today, at 9:15 a.m., the Russian army fired a missile at our town of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk region. The enemy used S-300 missiles. They hit the residential sector. As of now, 17 names are on the list of victims. 14 are wounded. Three people were killed. My condolences to the families and friends…

These Russian missiles hit Konstantinovka, in particular, four residential buildings. Unfortunately, such shelling is a daily occurrence in our territories, which the Russian army reaches with such missiles. Donbas, Kharkiv region, the south of the country…

It would be possible to stop this Russian terror if we could provide our military with adequate missile forces. So that the terrorists would not have a sense of impunity.

Ukraine needs long-range missiles, in particular, to remove the possibility for the occupier to set up its missile launchers far from the front line and destroy Ukrainian cities with them.

I am grateful to everyone in the world: politicians, public figures, journalists and ordinary people who insist with us that there can be no taboos in the supply of weapons to protect against Russian terror.

We will do everything we can to ensure that our partners open up this vital supply of ATACMS and other similar weapons.

Because it is necessary to protect lives. To protect cities like Kostiantynivka or Kharkiv, for example.

Today, I continued our marathon of honesty, which should bring international sports organizations back to true Olympic principles.

I sent a letter to the presidents of the leading international sports federations. The call is simple and fair: to make a decision on the decision of the International Olympic Committee, which, unfortunately, wants to open sport to the propaganda influence of a terrorist state.

If Russian athletes appear at international competitions, it will only be a matter of time before they start justifying Russia’s aggression and using terror symbols. And it is also only a matter of time before the Kremlin starts using the existing unprincipled “flexibility” of the International Olympic Committee to say that the world agrees to make concessions to the aggressor.

We cannot ignore the fact that every day Russia continues its terror.

Today, I signed a decree to implement the NSDC decision on sanctions against legal entities and individuals used by the aggressor state to transport military equipment and soldiers by rail. We are talking about 185 companies and individuals. Their assets in Ukraine will be blocked, and their property will be used for our defense. And we will work to ensure that similar blocking is applied by other countries.

I am grateful to everyone who helps us to strengthen sanctions against Russia! And, by the way, I thank all the investigators who expose the ways that the terrorist state uses to circumvent sanctions!

I am grateful to each and every one of you who are eliminating the consequences of Russian shelling and rescuing the wounded! And, of course, I thank each and every one of our soldiers at the front who are defending our positions and destroying the occupiers!

Today I would like to especially mention the units that are most effectively defending Donetsk region.

This is the 21st separate battalion of the 56th separate motorized infantry brigade – thank you for your resilience and repulsion of Russian attacks!

The soldiers of the 26th and 55th separate artillery brigades – thank you for your accuracy!

92nd separate mechanized brigade – thank you guys!

Thank you to everyone who gives Ukraine the necessary results every day and every night! And we will respond to every Russian attack. We will.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut, Kremenna, Soledar, and Vulhedar:

Mariupol:

This is an interesting analysis, by tweet thread, from the Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the Marshall Center:

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:

  • Time to set aside our double standard whereby when it comes to #Russia, we don’t enforce the rules, but instead hope for a good tsar (Gorbachev, Yeltsin) with whom we can (to quote Lady Thatcher) “do business.” We should also set aside the nonsense about Russian high culture. 2/
  • Russian culture must be seen in its totality — it’s not just Dostoyevsky, Tolstoy or ballet; it’s first and foremost the Gulag, prisons, firing squads, rape and torture. It’s the culture of violence and theft as a mode of governance. It’s an empire awash in blood. 3/
  • Watch how the Russians behave in #Ukraine, where premeditated destruction and murder is the rule, and ask yourself if that this someone you would like to invite to dinner, or even live next door to. Bottom line: Europe will know no peace until Russia is expelled from Europe. 4/
  • Listen to Finns, Poles, or Balts. They have lived next door to Russia for centuries and paid an awful price while the West often looked the other way. It’s time “realists” among Western policy elites grow up and end the “what-about-ism” nonsense when it comes to Russia. 5/
  • Democracies are not perfect, but we certainly are better than the Russian and Chinese alternatives. And the Ukrainians are fighting on our behalf, they want to be a part of us. They deserve our respect and all the material and political support we can muster. #ArmUkraineNow

Politico has new details on the push to send F-16s to Ukraine:

A contingent of military officials is quietly pushing the Pentagon to approve sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to help the country defend itself from Russian missile and drone attacks, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.

Ukraine has kept American-made F-16s on its weapons wish list since the Russian invasion last year. But Washington and Kyiv have viewed artillery, armor and ground-based air defense systems as more urgent needs as Ukraine seeks to protect civilian infrastructure and claw back ground occupied by Russian forces.

As Ukraine prepares to launch a new offensive to retake territory in the spring, the campaign inside the Defense Department for fighter jets is gaining momentum, according to a DoD official and two other people involved in the discussions. Those people, along with others interviewed for this story, asked not to be named in order to discuss internal matters.

Spurred in part by the rapid approval of tanks and Patriot air defense systems — which not long ago were off-limits for export to Ukraine — there is renewed optimism in Kyiv that U.S. jets could be next up.

“I don’t think we are opposed,” said a senior DoD official about the F-16s, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive debate. The person stressed that there has been no final decision.

However, Ukraine has yet to declare that fighter jets are its top priority, the official stressed, noting that the Pentagon is focused on sending Kyiv the capabilities it needs for the immediate fight.

But fighter jets may be moving to the top spot soon. Kyiv has renewed its request for modern fighters in recent days, with a top adviser to the country’s defense minister telling media outlets that officials will push for jets from the U.S. and European countries.

A top Ukrainian official said Saturday that Ukraine and its Western allies are engaged in “fast-track” talks on possibly sending both long-range missiles and military aircraft.

One adviser to the Ukrainian government said the subject has been raised with Washington, but there has been “nothing too serious” on the table yet. Another person familiar with the conversations between Washington and Kyiv said it could take “weeks” for the U.S. to make a decision on shipments of its own jets and approve the re-export of the F-16s from other countries.

“If we get them, the advantages on the battlefield will be just immense. … It’s not just F-16s: fourth generation aircraft, this is what we want,” Yuriy Sak, who advises Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, told Reuters.

A White House spokesperson declined to comment for this story, but pointed to remarks by deputy national security adviser Jon Finer. He said the U.S. would be discussing fighter jets “very carefully” with Kyiv and its allies.

“We have not ruled in or out any specific systems,” Finer said on MSNBC Thursday.

“We have nothing to announce regarding F-16s,” said a DOD spokesperson. “As always, we’ll continue to consult closely with the Ukrainians and our international Allies and partners on Ukraine’s security assistance needs to enable them to defend their country.”

Ukraine wants modern fighters — U.S. Air Force F-16s or F-15s, or their European equivalents the German Tornado or Swedish Gripen — to replace its fleet of Soviet-era jets. Dozens of the more modern planes will become available over the next year as countries such as Finland, Germany and the Netherlands upgrade to U.S. F-35 fighters.

Despite the age of Ukraine’s jets, Kyiv’s integrated air defenses have kept Russia from dominating its skies since the Feb. 24 invasion.

But now, officials are concerned that Ukraine is running out of missiles to protect its skies. Once its arsenal is depleted, Russia’s advanced fighter jets will be able to move in and Kyiv “will not be able to compete,” said the DoD official involved in the discussions.

Modern fighter jets could be one solution to this problem, argues a group of military officials in the Pentagon and elsewhere. F-16s carry air-to-air missiles that can shoot down incoming missiles and drones. And unlike the Patriots and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems the West is currently sending, fighter jets can move around an area quickly to protect different targets.

“If they get [F-16] Vipers and they have an active air-to-air missile with the radar the F-16 currently has with some electronic protection, now it’s an even game,” the DoD official said.

Even if the U.S. decided not to send the Air Force’s F-16s, other Western nations have American-made fighters they could supply. For example, Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister Wopke Hoekstra told the Dutch parliament last week that his Cabinet would look at supplying F-16s, if Kyiv requests them. But the U.S. must approve the transfer.

Senior Pentagon officials acknowledge that Ukraine needs new aircraft for the long term. But for now, some argue that Ukraine has a greater need for more traditional air defenses, such as the Patriots and NASAMs that the U.S. and other countries are supplying, because jets may take months to arrive.

Sending Ukraine F-16s “does not solve the cruise missile or drone problem right now,” the senior DoD official said.

Much, much more at the link!

Christopher Miller at The Financial Times has new details on the recent anti-corruption efforts in Ukraine:

When Ukrainian investigative reporter and anti-corruption activist Yuriy Nikolov was tipped off about an overpriced catering contract for the defence ministry, he knew the story could land him in trouble.

By publishing it, not only would Nikolov break a taboo on criticising the Ukrainian government during wartime. He knew it could also cast a shadow over his embattled country and tarnish the reputation of one of the most prominent figures of the war: defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov.

Nikolov reached out to the ministry, but was brushed off, he told the Financial Times. On Monday he published his findings, which showed the ministry had signed a $350mn deal with a catering company to pay wildly inflated prices for food going to Ukrainian troops.

The story of overpriced eggs and gherkins set off alarm bells for Ukrainians, who, according to the country’s central bank, have donated about $500mn of their own money to the army. Many recognised it as a classic scheme used by powerful officials to line their pockets. That it was money meant to help feed their defenders made it all the more scandalous.

The army food scandal broke as Ukraine was pleading with its western partners to supply it with tanks and other critical arms supplies for the fight against Russia’s invasion forces. The country’s bid to become an EU member state will depend on credible rule of law and anti-corruption reforms.

It was the first domino in a cascade of stories that would lead to resignations and sackings of senior government officials, as well as the biggest government shake-up since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

In a matter of days, one of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s deputy chiefs of staff, five governors of frontline provinces, four deputy ministers and two members of the president’s ruling Servant of the People party in parliament would resign or be fired because of scandalous or allegedly corrupt behaviour.

“Corruption is a negative in any case but in our circumstances, at our level of development in our democracy and fighting against Russia, the cost is very high, it’s people dying every day,” said lawmaker Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, first deputy head of the parliamentary committee on anti-corruption policy.

Ukrainians are focused on defeating Russia, Nikolov said, “but it turned out that, in fact, [Ukrainians] really don’t like corruption and want justice, too”.

“Soldiers in the trenches,” he added, were among the many readers who had written to thank him for exposing the deal and stopping it before payment was made.

Reznikov denied any wrongdoing in a fiery Facebook post and passed the blame to his deputy, Vyacheslav Shapovalov, who oversaw procurements and who quit when the scandal broke.

Ukraine’s top military commander, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, called for a thorough investigation of the corruption allegations, adding that the military had “zero tolerance for corruption”.

Yurchyshyn, who sits on a parliamentary committee dealing with anti-graft policies, told the FT that the shake-up proved that ongoing anti-corruption reforms were working. “We created NABU, an anti-corruption court, a special anti-corruption prosecutor and ProZorro” — a digital procurement system to increase transparency and competition, Yurchyshyn said.

“It is fair, it is needed for our defence, and it helps our rapprochement with European institutions,” Zelenskyy said of his government shake-up on Tuesday. “We need a strong state, and Ukraine will be just that.”

Ana Pisonero, a spokesperson for the European Commission, said leaders in Brussels, who say Ukraine’s potential future accession into the 27-member bloc is conditional on it cleaning up corruption, were pleased with Zelenskyy’s response and “welcome the fact that the Ukrainian authorities are taking these issues seriously”. But more progress on reforms was still needed, she added.

Much, much more at the link!

We interrupt this update to let you know that a whole lot of Iran has gone kaboom!

I don’t know why that thread isn’t actually set up to thread.

Now we wait and see if anyone takes credit. Israel is, of course, the obvious choice. But Iran is also now supplying Russia’s drones, so…

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open threads!

Reader Interactions

96Comments

  1. 1.

    Philbert

    USGS reports 5.8 and 5.9 earthquakles about 2 miles paart near Khowy, Iran.  Way in NE Iran near Azeri. Way big to be a nuke test but I’m mixing a stiff drink!

  2. 2.

    Jay

    Twitter chief Elon Musk and two men with hundreds of thousands of followers ranting about a completely made up "report" about Ukraine tweeted by some random account without even bothering to check if the tweet they're reacting to is actually true or not. pic.twitter.com/XeOFJoEV8W— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) January 28, 2023

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    It is — or it ought to be — to our collective shame that we’re nearing one year since the start of the full-scale war and Ukraine is still having to beg and plead and offer reasons and explanations for the weapons and such that they need to defend their land and people. The fucking hemming and hawing and mealy-mouthed objections make me want to scream. How many Ukrainian lives are we comfortable sacrificing to that russian shithead’s demonic ego?

    I’ll just say, it’s a good thing I’m not in the White House press pool. (Also because there’s no way I’d be able to keep myself from cursing. It’s my native language.)

    This post from the In Ukraine FB page made me choke up earlier:

    94-year-old Volodymyr from Ivano-Frankivsk region donated his savings to help the Ukrainian Army.

    For Volodymyr, Russian war against Ukraine is the second war in his life. The man survived World War II as a teenager.

    Has a nice photo. This is the kind of person Western governments should be thinking of when they wring their hands over missiles and jets.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Kelly

    I wonder if the Air Force will finagle a way to donate the A-10’s to Ukraine. I’m not an expert but I’ve been reading for years that the Air Force brass wants to be rid of them. Ukraine could be good cover to clear A10’s from the inventory.

  6. 6.

    Jay

    Prigozhyn continues humiliating Girkin: after several days of heated exchanges between two terrorists, today Prigozhyn gave an idea of how Girkin's service in the PMC will look like – he will go through hell and fire to prove his bravery, or else Prigozhyn will piss on his face. pic.twitter.com/M4dUAN0Uvn— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 28, 2023

  8. 8.

    trollhattan

    “Own the night.” Excerpt from BBC on how mainline western battle tanks can change Ukraine’s capabilities.

    Mr de Bretton Gordon, who commanded a squadron of British Challenger tanks, says one of the big advantages of Western-made tanks is their ability to fight at night.

    Night sights and thermal imaging camera are standard. Only Russia’s more advanced tanks – like the T-90 – are fitted to fight at night. Attacks under the cover of darkness also add to the element of shock and surprise.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64422568

    Turbine-engine M-1s also said to be surprisingly quiet and thus, stealthy.

  9. 9.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Kelly: ​
     

    I know next to nothing about military (or civilian) aircraft, but Wikipedia says the A-10 Warthog is designed to provide close air support of ground troops, and that would seem like a useful kind of aircraft to have in a hoped-for spring offensive.

    From all I’ve heard, its pilots are the biggest advocates for keeping it, which is certainly what you’d like to hear.

  10. 10.

    Alison Rose

    @WaterGirl: The Elon one? Works fine for me. To give a description: An account called The_Real_Fly tweeted: “REPORT: UKRAINE REQUESTS IMMEDIATE EXTRADITION OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY AGED MEN IN EUROPE”. Someone quote-RT’d it saying “How many more lives have to be lost?” Elon replied with just “!!” and then Ian Miles Cheong replied with “It’s absolutely insane. I hope the EU denies the request. These men should not have to die for Zelensky.”

    So, you know. A whole bunch of stupid bullshit.

  18. 18.

    Martin

    Three killed and three wounded – these are the consequences of a russian missile hitting the residential quarter of Kostiantynivka. Russian army continues to terrorize the civilians of Ukraine.

    Again, not to diminish, but last nights mass shooting in LA racked up higher numbers.

    Maybe that’s the deal to make with the GOP – ban light arms but every conservative can have a cruise missile.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Personally, I have little patience for rhetoric such as Andrew Michta’s. It is no longer enough to assert that “democracies” offer better alternatives to Russia or China. Better for whom? Is there actually consensus among democracies on this point? Are we including the illiberal democracies among the “democracies”? (I know, by “democracies” he actually means the Western alliance.)

    The proof of the pudding is whether countries outside of the West agree. In terms of soft power, it is really no contest between the “West” & Russia or China, so why then there is in fact a contest for influence in the Global South, one that the West is at all on track to win? It is not enough to imply that the Global South countries have no agency of their own & are simply being hoodwinked by Russia or China, or are themselves corrupt authoritarians. Some introspection has to be made to understand the failure of the West’s historical interaction w/ the Global South, introspection that is entirely absent from Michta’s. Every charge he lays at Russia can & have been laid by Global South countries at the feet of the U.S. & other western powers (including their post-colonial behavior). Yes, there is a significant difference in degree that is important, but it is not black & white as his polemics assert, either.

    As a polemic to rally Western support to Ukraine, that is fine. As a foundation to build a more sustainable international order, his is dangerously arrogant and/or naive.

  20. 20.

    Kent

    Since Israel seems unwilling to help Ukraine directly, maybe the US can pass on the technology to take out the drone and missile manufacturing capacity inside Iran.  Or hell, just do it ourselves.  What are the Iranians going to do about it?  They have chosen their side.

    On the other hand, that would be step one in turning this into a wider world war.  So probably not going to happen.

  21. 21.

    Adam L Silverman

    @hrprogressive: At one level making sure your subordinates have everything ready makes sense. On another, when nothing happens in 2025 rather than admit he was wrong, he’ll say his actions deterred Xi. Which is completely unprovable and highly unlikely.

  25. 25.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @YY_Sima Qian: As a polemic to rally Western support to Ukraine, that is fine. As a foundation to build a more sustainable international order, his is dangerously arrogant and/or naive.

    And which do you think it was?  I tend to think that a twitter thread is unlikely to be the spot where the foundation for a new sustainable international order is debuted.

  26. 26.

    Gin & Tonic

    I’m happy to see Yurchyshyn getting due credit in that Chris Miller piece. He’s been working the anti-corruption angle for years now, usually under the radar, but he is a man of uncompromising integrity.

  27. 27.

    Kent

    @YY_Sima Qian: That is true as as far as it goes.  No one is really a “friend” of the Global South.  Not the west, not Russia, and not China.  Everyone operates out of their own self interest.

    On the other hand, who do people from the Global South really want closer ties with?  Look at immigration.  How many people from Latin America or Africa are seeking to immigrate to Russia or China compared to North America or western Europe?  For that matter, what is the average small city in Africa or Latin America going to prefer see built.   A factory built by an American, German, or British company?  Or one built by a Russian or Chinese company?

  28. 28.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Kent: Or maybe a mine operated by Wagner?

    I can see the idea that playing off one of these powers against another might be good, and that on that basis, a country like South Africa might want Russia to not be thoroughly defeated.  But the idea that either Russia or China would be any *better* than the US is …. such bullshit.  We’ve already seen what Russia does overseas.  And I’ve read enough articles about what China’s overseas love-hugs do to some poorer countries to see that it ain’t all wine and roses.

    Yeah, the US and the West aren’t great.  They’re a damn sight better than Russia or China, when it comes to obeying international law.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Omnes Omnibus: He is the head of a major think tank, the framing he presented in the Twitter thread is in fact the conventional wisdom in DC, Brussels & London. There are western think tanks & academics who are doing great nuanced work on this topic, but they do not seem to penetrate into the policy making circles, or the MSMs. The Carnegie Endowment is a major mainstream think tank in DC, it has done tremendous work studying the nuances of China’s engagement ew/ the world, & how countries outside of N. America/the EU (such as South Korea & India) are responding to common challenges (such as digital governance) in ways different from the U.S.’, the EU’s & China’s approaches.  Still, their work do not seem to have penetrated into the policymaking circles of the Biden Administration.

  31. 31.

    Jay

    A small Ukrainian village under russian occupation. 364 civilian hostages. A cramped, airless basement of a school. 26 days of hell, from which not everyone got out. «Hostages». The first part of the documentary series «Children of Bomb Shelters» by @ulybinyulian.1/4 pic.twitter.com/Su4WXMHZpn— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 23, 2023

    The story of the residents of the village of Yahidne, 12 km south of Chernihiv, was covered by the world’s media in April. But even the most vivid photos cannot truly tell the story of those who have gone through it. Women, elderly people, children with eyes full of sadness.2/4 pic.twitter.com/Asjq2QqWqU— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 23, 2023

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @Jay:

    The story of the residents of the village of Yahidne, 12 km south of Chernihiv, was covered by the world’s media in April. But even the most vivid photos cannot truly tell the story of those who have gone through it. Women, elderly people, children with eyes full of sadness.2/4 pic.twitter.com/Asjq2QqWqU— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 23, 2023

    They lived here. In half a square meter per person. They died here. Not even because of hunger or disease. They were suffocating there. For 26 days. They left this place only to be shot dead.3/4 pic.twitter.com/wPHaN6bScV— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 23, 2023

    «We came to liberate you» was the first thing the occupiers said to them. The residents of Yahidne learned what «liberation» means in russian. A documentary about a brutal war crime, the perpetrators of which have not yet been punished. Still in Ukraine, still doing evil.4/4 pic.twitter.com/mTARc21mL6— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 23, 2023

  33. 33.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: The Marshall Center isn’t a think tank. It is a U.S. professional military education school and center in Garmisch, Germany. It provides joint professional military education to US personnel, allies, and partners. It does have a research component.

  34. 34.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: Subtract Michta’s reference to China (which, in this thread, was *one* reference, a throwaway at the end).  What else did he write, that you could take exception to?

    Russia *is* an imperial power, *does* imprison many nations and oppress them, and *is* on the warpath to conquer new nations.  And everything else he wrote about Russia is *still* true: the rapes, the torture-as-policy, the ethnic-cleansing-as-policy, and on and on.  And it’s been true for well over a century.

    Oh, and that tweet-thread is *clearly* not being directed at Modi (spit) or South Africa.  It’s being directed at the leaders of the West, and their citizens.

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Kent: When was the last time Western companies have built infrastructure or factories in the Global South? They cannot justify taking on the risk. Therein lies the problem. Chinese, Indian & Turkish companies are doing that, w/ their greater risk tolerance (& sometimes paying for it).

  36. 36.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Chetan Murthy: I mean,  ffs, did you see this a while back?

    A leading Kazakh commentator says that if Russia invades Kazakhstan, there will be corpses of conscripts on the steppes

    He accuses propagandists calling for nukes on Almaty and annexing northern/eastern Kazakhstan of bringing Russophobia on themselveshttps://t.co/72Z6gmWegc
    — Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) December 9, 2022

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Omnes Omnibus: I understand your point, that one should not expect such nuance or complexity from a twitter thread (but plenty of other people do manage it w/ ease). However, the long form research products coming out of most western think tanks, or western governments & parliaments aren’t much more nuanced, either. The framing Michta adopts is pervasive, & that is what I was responding to.

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: The WB & the IMF have not funded infrastructure development or financed industrial capacity building in the developing world for decades. That is why the Global South countries have turned to China (& India, Türkiye & the UAE) over the past decade & half, & so many signed up to China’s Belt & Road Initiative so quickly.

    As for China’s industrial capacity, Western companies brought much needed technology (even if never bleeding edge, still much more advanced than what China had in the 80s & 90s) & management expertise. The capital came from domestic sources, as unlocking of domestic growth potential through ending of planned economy rapidly increased the tax revenues that the government could leverage to fund investments, as well as savings in state owned banks that the government could leverage to finance capital investment. As for non-domestic sources of finance (& technology/managerial expertise), Hong Kong, Taiwanese & Chinese diaspora in SE Asia were greater factors than Western countries.

  43. 43.

    Geminid

    I guess we’ll find out more about those explosions in Iran tomorrow when daylight satellite pictures come in. Judging from the size of the explosions it seems like munitions stockpiles of some sort are involved.

    There was an Iranian missile attack last Spring on a compound in Erbil, capital of Iraqi Kurdestan. Reporting afterwards said this was retaliation for an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian drone base, carried out from Iraqi Kurdestan. Israel and Iran have not acknowledged that strike, but Iran did claim the Erbil attack and warned the Kurdish government against assisting “the Zionists.”

    Israel and the US are the only countries who could or would launch airstrikes like the ones that apparently caused these explosions. The less likely alternative would be coordinated sabotage by the Iranian MEK. This group has a deep hatred for the Islamic Republic, and they seem to have made common cause with Israel’s Mossad spy agency.

    Adding the collapse of the JCPOA talks to Iran’s promise to provide ballistic missiles to Russia, the possibility of a war with Iran is much greater than a few months ago.

    The US and Israel staged a major joint training exercise last week called “Juniper Oak.” A report noted that it had been organized fairly quickly, and it was big- 150 Navy, Air Force and IDF warplanes, plus refueling tankers. The theme was “interoperability.”

    So tonight’s explosions may presage something bigger, although I have no way of knowing. I’m  just glad they happened and I hope missile factories were destroyed.

  44. 44.

    CaseyL

    I’d be very interested to know if Israel did do the bombing runs in Iran; talk about twisty, twisty politics!

    Israel has opposed Iran for ages, and helped sabotage/scuttle the JCPOA.

    Israel has also refused to help Ukraine in any meaningful way.

    Meanwhile, Iran has been pursuing rogue state status like there are cash prizes to be had: allying with Russia, brutalizing Iranian women and anyone who supports them.

    I can see the US doing a wink-wink nudge-nudge to Israel’s bombing Iran’s military infrastructure, particularly the drone factories.  It would be a masterful example of addressing multiple priorities while agreeing to “let” Israel do what they were gonna do anyway, and keep the US officially blameless.

  46. 46.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The WB & the IMF have not funded infrastructure development or financed industrial capacity building in the developing world for decades.

    https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/infrastructure/overview#3

    Liberia Southeast Corridor Road Asset Management Project: The first road public-private partnership in an IDA/FCV country, the project aims to enhance road connectivity for residents living along the Ganta-to-Zwedru Road Corridor.

    Kosovo Digital Economy: The project aims to deepen Kosovo’s connections to the global economy by improving access to better quality and high‐speed broadband services and online knowledge sources, services and labor markets.

    Digital CASA (Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan): In Central Asia and parts of South Asia, the Bank is providing analytic and advisory services to support the development of a regionally integrated digital infrastructure.

    Morocco Railway Restructuring Project: This programmatic ASA will provide technical assistance and analytical support to the National Railways Agency of Morocco (ONCF) in defining and operationalizing a new institutional model for the management of railways services and infrastructure.

    Also: China’s BRI isn’t charity: it’s specifically in pursuit of China’s foreign policy agenda, to project and cement China’s power.  So pretending that it’s some selfless thing, is …. well, poppycock.

  47. 47.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The capital came from domestic sources, as unlocking of domestic growth potential through ending of planned economy rapidly increased the tax revenues that the government could leverage to fund investments, as well as savings in state owned banks that the government could leverage to finance capital investment.

    I’m not an economist and this isn’t my area, but to put it lightly, the above statement is pretty controversial.  China’s SOEs ate much much of domestic savings, and much of the big growth was due to foreign direct investment — not just tech, but *money*.

  48. 48.

    frosty

    @Kelly: ​<br To hell with the USAF brass – the Warthog is the best ground attack plane ever designed. It can fly home on one engine, one rudder, and with half a wing gone. Give them to the Army and let the junior birdmen flit about the sky.​​

  50. 50.

    frosty

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
     My FIL who served in the Navy in the Pacific called called back during Korea. He was on a DE in the Mediterranean and considered his service a success. Neither North Korea nor China invaded the area he defended.

  51. 51.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @frosty: The Cold War ended within a year of my being stationed in Germany.  Don’t come at me with that janky correlation not equaling causation shit.  I know what I know.

  52. 52.

    Kent

    @Geminid:Israel and the US are the only countries who could or would launch airstrikes like the ones that apparently caused these explosions. The less likely alternative would be coordinated sabotage by the Iranian MEK. This group has a deep hatred for the Islamic Republic, and they seem to have made common cause with Israel’s Mossad spy agency.

    Also Turkey who is no friend of Iran.  But has no history (that I know of) of making military strikes on Iran.  But they certainly have the drone and missile capability.

  53. 53.

    Kent

    @YY_Sima Qian:@Kent: When was the last time Western companies have built infrastructure or factories in the Global South? They cannot justify taking on the risk. Therein lies the problem. Chinese, Indian & Turkish companies are doing that, w/ their greater risk tolerance (& sometimes paying for it).

    There are American and European companies investing all over Latin America.  I’m less familiar with Africa and Asia.  I travel frequently to Latin America (my wife is Chilean) and there are American companies all over the place.

    For example, just in the pharma sector alone there are Roche Pharma, AstraZenica, Bristol Meyers Squbb, Glaxo Smith Kline, Merck, and Novartis plants in Chile alone.  All the major US and Euro banks are there.  My brother-in-law works for BNP Paribas in Santiago and they have massive investments all across Latin America.

  55. 55.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Subtract Michta’s reference to China (which, in this thread, was *one* reference, a throwaway at the end).  What else did he write, that you could take exception to?

    I take exception to his myopia. He is not a random dude on Twitter. Everything he writes offer a window into his worldview. By all rights the West should be more attractive to the Global South countries, but it is not. Yes, people in the Global South prefer to migrate to the West, but that does not mean they (even those who have migrated) prefer the West’s engagement in their home countries. Understanding why there is such a gulf between what should be & what is is the prerequisite to closing that gap. I assume Michta believes that the West is in competition w/ Russia (& China) in the Global South, & that Russian (& Chinese) influence in the GLobal South needs to be curtailed to preserve the “liberal international order”. Can’t win that competition if one does not understand the problem, or is not even aware that there is a problem.

    Furthermore, the challenge Russia presents in the Global South is very different from China’s (or India’s, Türkiye’s or the UAE’s, for that matter). Conflating them is pervasive in mainstream Western discourse, but particularly in the US. There have been greater push back against the dangers of conflating the two challenges from analysts & commentators across the spectrum even in the US, but large parts of the US executive & legislative branches seem to be really determined to conflate them.

    Having said all that, Russia brings very little positive to the Global South. Many (but not all) Global South countries are receptive to Russia because there is a deep reservoir of skepticism to the “liberal international order” led by the West. Instead of writing off these Global South countries as suckers who don’t know what’s good for themselves, perhaps the Western governments need to work to break this dynamic. It should be much easier to accomplish wrt Russia than China.

    The recent summits the US has held w/ the Pacific Island nations & African nations offer some tentatively positive signs, in that these engagements are the 1st attempts to center the agency of Global South countries (for a change), but these are just the very 1st steps very late into the game.

  58. 58.

    Kent

    @Geminid: Turkey has clashed with Iran in both Syria and Azerbaijan where it has found itself on opposite sides with Iran in both fights.  Not in the sense of Turkish and Iranian troops fighting each other directly, but in the sense that they are supporting opposite sides.

  59. 59.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Taiwan was not considered Western 80s – 90s, when the bulk of those investments were made. Unlike Japan, & like South Korea, it is still not considered Western. Few Taiwanese view themselves as Western.

  60. 60.

    divF

    @Adam L Silverman: I spent two years of my childhood (1959-1960) at the site that now houses the Marshall Center, back when it was a housing area for US Army personnel (and their families) stationed in Bavaria. We had a stunning view of the Zugspitze from the balcony of our third-floor apartment.

  61. 61.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @divF: I’ve stayed there in both summer and winter when it was an army playground.  Preferred skiing in Austria though.

  62. 62.

    Geminid

    @Kent: Turkiye and Iran have a cooperative relationship in Syria, in the west. They both want to see the US out and its Kurdish allies neutralized. There has  been plenty of reporting on this.

    In the east, they support different sides in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Iran supports Armenia, and in particular has warned Azerbaijan away from taking the corridor of land connecting the rest of Armenia with Iran. That would connect Azerbaiajan with an autonomous region of Azeris that in turn borders Turkiye.

    So I guess you could say their relationship is ambivalent. But their tensions are nothing to stage bombing raids or missile attacks over.

  63. 63.

    Adam L Silverman

    @divF: @Omnes Omnibus: I keep applying for the same position there over and over every time they post it. The announcement states relocation is authorized, but the reality is they’ll only fill it with someone already in Europe.

  65. 65.

    Aziz, light!

    @frosty: The counter argument against the A-10 is that it’s a sitting duck for modern shoulder-fired weapons, and Ukraine cannot afford to sacrifice its pilots.

  67. 67.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Kent: You might be correct about Chile (& certainly Mexico, but how recent are those investments), but I think foreign (& domestic) investment into manufacturing in most of Latin American have stagnated since the early 90s, which is why many of the them are threatened by deindustrialization (Brazil & Argentina come to mind), or failed to industrialize at all. The benefits from selling commodities are not widely shared. To be fair, China has not made much investment into local manufacturing in Latin America, either. Most of it has been infrastructure aimed to smooth resource extraction, or infrastructure at the behest of national/regional governments to fulfill their election pledges.

    The main players investing into manufacturing (& infrastructure) in Africa are China, India, Türkiye, & the Gulf States, & even then far from adequate to really kick start industrialization on the continent.

    Outside of Vietnam, the largest historical & current investors of infrastructure & manufacturing into SE Asia are Japan, South Korea & Taiwan. Chinese firms has been gaining quickly, & I think Chinese investment are on par or exceeded Japanese ones in the region in the last few years. US firms hold a huge stock of foreign direct investment in the region, accumulated in the decades past, but had really dropped off (which did not change until the last couple of years, as mot MNCs shift toward a “China+1” supply chain strategy).

    (I know Chetan will say Japan is Western. However, the positive sentiments in region that result from Japanese investment do not rub off on the US or the EU. Just as the Global South is not a solid block, neither is the West.)

  70. 70.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: You continue to refuse to answer what’s wrong with Michta’s thread, other than his offhand remark about China.  As if somehow, his thread were *mostly* about the BRI, and not about Russia’s, y’know, brutal and completely lawless, uncivilized imperial war of conquest.

  71. 71.

    Jay

    @Aziz, light!:

    on paper, A-10’s are more survivable, have a longer loitering time, better targetting, a heavier payload, better gun, and smarter weapons than the SU-25’s and SU-27’s Ukraine currently use in the role.

    Both the RUSAF and the Ukraine AF fly ground support at “nape of the earth” because at “nape of the earth”, other than “horizon shots”, (long view across open ground from horizon to horizon), a MANPAD operator has a few seconds to note, identify, track and target, before the aircraft is “gone”. It’s a rare shot.

    The other reason for “nape of the earth” is if you arn’t hidden in the ground clutter, you are on radar, lot’s and lot’s of radars.

    The A-10 would do a fine job in Ukraine.

  72. 72.

    Kent

    @YY_Sima Qian:@Kent: You might be correct about Chile (& certainly Mexico, but how recent are those investments), but I think foreign (& domestic) investment into manufacturing in most of Latin American have stagnated since the early 90s, which is why many of the them are threatened by deindustrialization (Brazil & Argentina come to mind), or failed to industrialize at all. The benefits from selling commodities are not widely shared. To be fair, China has not made much investment into local manufacturing in Latin America, either. Most of it has been infrastructure aimed to smooth resource extraction, or infrastructure at the behest of national/regional governments to fulfill their election pledges.

    Like I said, my experience is limited to Latin America.  I have lived, worked, and taught in Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, NE Brazil, and Chile  And have visited nearly every other country in the region at one time or the other.  I have never encountered anyone outside of say the odd lefty college student, who would prefer Russian or Chinese investment to Western.   Who would rather go to a Russian or Chinese university than one in the North America or Europe.  Or who would seek to work for a Chinese or Russian firm in Latin America over an American or European one.

    As for investments?  Without looking up statistics I can promise you that nothing flatlined in the 90s.  They are ongoing.  All the big American and Euro multi-nationals are all over Latin America.  To the detriment of local firms often.  But that is the global marketplace.  Pretty much the only major Asian firms you see are Japanese and Korean (Toyota, Samsung, etc.).

    That does not mean that national governments aren’t taking Chinese money for major infrastructure projects like dams and highways.  But some are also coming to regret that and it is becoming politically unpopular to incur massive debt to China.  The Russians honestly aren’t players at all in Latin America.  No one wants what they are selling.

  73. 73.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Also: China’s BRI isn’t charity: it’s specifically in pursuit of China’s foreign policy agenda, to project and cement China’s power.  So pretending that it’s some selfless thing, is …. well, poppycock.

    That is entirely correct, but the Global South countries that engage w/ China are well aware of that. They simply feel they can (or have higher probability to) extract more benefit from that engagement. The problem is that many African governments in particular have failed to maximize their benefits from engagement w/ China. Chinese entities can afford the best lawyers in New York, London & Paris to write their contracts, African countries generally cannot. For all of their deepening engagement w/ & dependence on China, China expertise in Africa is extraordinarily thin.

    Honestly, I am not sure what Global South countries can expect from engagements w/ Russia, but I take issue w/ Michta’s assertion that engagement w/ the West is self-evidently superior. By all rights that should be the case, but isn’t.

    He is right that Russian culture is more than Dostoyevsky or Tolstoy, so is the Gulags & the violence. I have a problem when he passes summary judgment that Russian culture is “first & foremost” the Gulags & the violence. I have a problem of Otherizing one’s enemies as uniquely evil. (I am not looking to rehash the arguments here, many bits have already been sent on that subject here, discussions derailed & feelings bruised.) One could easily write a similar indictment against the US (gun culture run amok, turning prisons into a for profit racket leading to high incarceration rates, highly militarized foreign policy, etc.), but I doubt Michta would ever author such a missive. That’s why his assertion of engagements w/ “democracies” being self-evidently better really rubs me the wrong way. Such superiority needs to be proven by actions, not asserted as words.

  74. 74.

    Jay

    @Geminid:

    A-10’s would help by knocking down Russian air defenses in occupied Ukraine, but F-16’s and other modern Western Fighters can take on drones and some cruise missiles.

    They would put another dent in Russian terrorism.

  75. 75.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Kent: Thanks for sharing. I am more familiar w/ China’s engagement in Africa, Central Asia & SE Asia.

    & yet commodities exports are taking up increasing share of many Latin American economies, virtually none of the manufacturing exports from Latin American countries are competitive internationally in the way E/SE Asian countries are (other than Mexico to the US), there is no integrated pan-Latin American supply chain analogous to the one in E/SE Asia. Companies that do manufacture in region often because of high protectionist barriers against imports. Such protectionist barriers can serve to protect domestic industry, allowing it space to eventually become competitive internationally & capture more of the value added, which is what has happened in E/SE Asia. Only the former has happened in most of Latin America, not nearly enough of the latter.

  76. 76.

    joel hanes

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    I was drafted in early November, 1972.

    Within six months, the US withdrew from Viet Nam

    Using  the same sort of reasoning, my contributions drove one medium-sized computer company into bankrupcy, subsequently caused a startup company to fail, tanked a wholly owned subsidiary of a big company, and crippled a major product of yet another big company.

  77. 77.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The problem is that many African governments in particular have failed to maximize their benefits from engagement w/ China. Chinese entities can afford the best lawyers in New York, London & Paris to write their contracts, African countries generally cannot.

    Many 2nd and 3rd world nations could afford the “best Corporate” lawyers, but want to steal the money instead.

    There is what I call the “Greek Disease”. When things turn bad in the global economy, the IMF and the Paris Group and others, are quick to “austerity”.

  78. 78.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy:

    I’m not an economist and this isn’t my area, but to put it lightly, the above statement is pretty controversial.  China’s SOEs ate much much of domestic savings, and much of the big growth was due to foreign direct investment — not just tech, but *money*.

    It is not controversial at all. The total stock of fix asset investment in China from 1979 to 2022 is at least an order of magnitude higher than the total stock of foreign direct investment (fixed assets, as opposed to portfolio) into China, & the majority of the latter came from Hong Kong, Taiwan & Chinese diaspora in SE Asia.

    The advanced physical infrastructure that is a key ingredient to China’s manufacturing prowess is almost entirely funded domestically (which alone far outstrips FDI), as is the massive investment into education & health care over the decades. Same w/ properties, but w/ far more mixed impact. The SOEs’ raison d’être is not to maximize efficiency & profit making, but to be instruments for the Chinese government’s industrial policy & serve as buffer against economic shocks. In that they are at least partially successful. Many Chinese SOEs are resources sinks (oil companies come to mind), others have world class technical capabilities (power transmission & high speed rail, built from the massive domestic build out). Even the state owned automobile companies are becoming more competitive, riding the EV wave, which could not have happened w/ ICEs.

  79. 79.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay:

    Many 2nd and 3rd world nations could afford the “best Corporate” lawyers, but want to steal the money instead.

    That too.

    There is what I call the “Greek Disease”. When things turn bad in the global economy, the IMF and the Paris Group and others, are quick to “austerity”.

    Except it’s austerity for thee but not for me.

  80. 80.

    Kent

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Thanks for sharing. I am more familiar w/ China’s engagement in Africa, Central Asia & SE Asia.

    & yet commodities exports are taking up increasing share of many Latin American economies, virtually none of the manufacturing exports from Latin American countries are competitive internationally in the way E/SE Asian countries are (other than Mexico to the US), there is no integrated pan-Latin American supply chain analogous to the one in E/SE Asia. Companies that do manufacture in region often because of high protectionist barriers against imports

    Yes, and that isn’t likely to change any time soon.  Latin America isn’t competitive on low end manufacturing like textiles because they can’t compete on wages with places like Bangladesh.  And they aren’t competitive on the high end for making things like iPhones, LDC TVs, etc. because they lack the technology and knowledge base.  So in Chile’s case it is copper, salmon, and produce taking advantage of the opposite seasons with the north.  Honestly I appreciate the more local economies.  They more resemble the US before globalization which wasn’t a bad thing.  Lots more smaller local companies.  I like that I have 50 choices of local Chilean cheeses at the supermarket across the street from my mother-in-laws house in Santiago.  And that there is a small bakery on every street corner.

    Latin America does have the Mercosur which is more or less their attempt to create the EU in South America but it is nowhere there yet because of the protectionism of which you speak.  It also doesn’t have the population of Asia or Africa.  Total population of South America is only about 430 million, half of which live in Brazil which is pretty cut off from the rest of South America for a lot of geographical and cultural reasons.

  82. 82.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Kent:

    So in Chile’s case it is copper, salmon, and produce taking advantage of the opposite seasons with the north.

    Chilean Cherrys have been a fixture on Chinese tables during Spring Festival time for the last few years. Chilean wines are also booming in China, along w/ Argentinian & South African offerings.

  83. 83.

    Another Scott

    @CaseyL: It seems to be more of the same, but nobody has published any evidence yet.

    AlJazeera:

    […]

    There have been several explosions and fires around Iranian military, nuclear and industrial facilities in the past few years.

    They come amid a long-running shadow war between Iran and Israel.

    The two countries are at loggerheads over Tehran’s nuclear programme.

    Israel says Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, an allegation Tehran denies.

    In July last year, Iran said it had arrested a sabotage team made up of Kurdish fighters working for Israel who planned to blow up a “sensitive” defence industry centre in Isfahan.

    Iran also blamed Israel for the assassination of its top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in 2020, as well as an attack on its underground Natanz nuclear facility in April 2021 that damaged its centrifuges.

    Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attacks.

    Israeli officials rarely acknowledge operations carried out by the country’s secret military units or its Mossad intelligence agency.

    They’re also reporting that Bibi wants it to be easier for Israelis to get gun permits, because guns make everyone safer…

    Grrr…,
    Scott.

  86. 86.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: Now it looks like coordinated attacks by Iranian resistance forces are the more likely cause of the explosions across Iran last night. The likely mode: short range armed drones. There are many as yet unverified reports of seven or more different attacks, on munitions facilities and in one case an oil refinery in the north.

    Iran’s official news sites have acknowledged an usuccessful drone attack on a “workshop” near the central city of Isfahan. They said there was some minor roof damage but judging from video of the explosion, the “roof damage” was probably caused when the roof landed half a mile away.

    This is somewhat of a relief, because an attack by Israel or the US would have been a major escalation that Iran would have answered, and things could escalate quickly from there.

  87. 87.

    Princess

    @Another Scott: the silence so far about what happened does feel like Israel’s signature. I guess there are three main sites: the factory in Isfahan, the refinery, and whatever caused the earthquake.

  88. 88.

    Dirk Reinecke

    The US and EU are far more important to teh economy of South Africa than China and especially Russia.

    The only reason the government of South Africa (The ANC) supports Russia is because of Russia support of corruption in SA and also because of perceived support given to “anti apartheid” fighters.

    https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-01-23-simplistic-and-infantile-to-demand-russias-withdrawal-from-ukraine-says-pandor-after-meeting-lavrov/

    A key way to understand South Africa is to realise the ANC is the equivalent of the GOP. Nonsensical ideology that supports the abuse of power for corrupt reasons.

  89. 89.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: What is the nature of the Iranian resistance groups, if they are not the MEK? If they are not the MEK & are not operating at the behest of Israeli or US intelligence, then it is interesting they are targeting the Iranian arms industry, as opposed to edifice of the regime.

  90. 90.

    Geminid

    @Princess: This would be a major escalation on Israel’s part. They’ve bombed Iranian assets in Syria plenty in the last 5 years, but the attacks they’ve carried out in Iran proper have been more limited in scope and means, and directed at Iran’s nuclear program.

    Israel seems to have an alliance with Iranian resistance groups like the MEK, so they might have given material support to the attackers. But aside from the drone attack I refer to at #43- which probably was retaliation for a one-drone attack on Israel- as far as I know Israel has not attacked Iran by air.

    The Israeli air force does train for  airstrikes on Iran and and are very open about that. But if they launch a strike it will involve dozens of warplanes and Iran’s nuclear facilities will be the prime targets.

  91. 91.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Dirk Reinecke: As of 2021 (& up to Nov. 2022), China is the top destination of South African exports (at ~ 11.5% share) & top source of imports into South Africa (at ~ 20% share). The bulk of import/export w/ China for much of Southern Africa also go through South African ports. China typically accounts for 10 – 15% of greenfield FDI into South Africa since 2015. South Africa is one of the most diversified economies on the continent in terms of domestic makeup, trade relationships & investment partnerships. Other countries in Southern Africa, such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique & Angola have much higher dependence on Chinese trade, investment & funding for infrastructure.

    That said, China has seen significant retrenchment in lending to African nations since 2019, as Chinese actors discover again the risk profile of the African countries, & is now focusing on smaller deals on telecommunications & digital infrastructure, health, renewable energy, instead of mega deals that could turn out as white elephants (such as the Standard Gage Railway in Kenya) & incur losses to Chinese financial institutions.

  92. 92.

    trnc

    OK, late to the party as usual, but I haz question if anyone happens to still be around. I don’t get why the “kaboom” stories are accompanied by the Marvin meme in which there is explicitly no kaboom. It’s probably been explained before and I missed it. Can someone enlighten me?

    Tx.

  93. 93.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: There are Kurdish resistance groups that may be acquiring weapons. Baluchi resistance groups in the Southeast have fought an armed insurgency against the Islamic Republic for years, and the regime’s repression there has been even more brutal than in the Kurdish regions of the northwest.

    The MEK is the most dangerous group. They helped topple the Shah but soon fell out with the mullahs and were outlawed by the regime. Mr. Raisi, Iran’s current President, earned the nickname “the Hangman” for his role in the execution of thousands of MEK adherents during the 1980s.

    They are still present in Iran, but are totally underground. They have not shown their hand in the protest movement that erupted last September but instead have bided their time, at least until last night.

    The Israelis may fear the Islamic Republic because of the100,000+ rockets* they sent to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and most of all because of Iran’s nuclear program. The MEK hates the regime, and they will do anything to help destroy it.

     

    *An article in Aljazeera, a fairly neutral source, said that Hezbolloh controls 130,000 rockets in southern Lebanon. Other sources agree. While the Israelis will attack rockets in transit across Syria, even at the Damascus airport, they don’t attack the rockets in Lebanon because Hezbollah stores them in villages. That would change if Hezbollah were to start firing them.

  94. 94.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: Thanks. So you think the MEK is the party responsible for the strikes last night, possibly w/ aid of Israeli and/or American intelligence?

    I too am glad that it is not Israel striking directly into Iran. Assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists is already escalatory enough.

  95. 95.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: I can’t be sure, but i think the MEK is the likely actor. The Iranian regime will probably blame the attacks on “Zionist” agents, but they will not retaliate against Israel like they would if this were a direct attack from that country.

  96. 96.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: The Israeli newspaper Haaretz has good military reporting and their article today pointed out that these attacks are similar to one Israel made on a drone base in Khoramsheh(sp?) Province, Iran last February with six drones carrying sizable warheads.

    A month later Iran hit a compound in Erbil, Iraq with ballistic missiles. Reports were that this was retalation for the drone base attack, that the Israeli drones were launched from Iraqi Kurdestan and that the ballistic missile strike was a warning to the Iraqi Kurdish government not to let it happen again.

    So it seems likely (but not certain) that Israel provided drones that were launched from inside Iran, by Iranian allies trained in a third country. Perhaps Azerbaijan.

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