(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The Ukrainian National Command Authority has decided to reinforce and continue to contest for Bakhmut. Here’s the relevant bit as a pull quote from President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Followed by the video of that address and the full English transcript after the jump. (emphasis mine)
I started the day with a meeting of the Staff. A detailed meeting.
We reviewed the situation in the operational directions, at each key point of hostilities. The Commander-in-Chief, commanders, and intelligence delivered reports. There was a special report on the situation in Bakhmut, around the city, and more than an hour-long conversation. In fact, it was the topic of Bakhmut that became the main topic for this meeting.
I want to be honest about such topics.
Unfortunately, there are many different disinformation messages. From those who don’t even have access to absolutely confidential discussions about defense, but claim something about some alleged decisions on defense issues.
Society must understand the meaning of our defense operations, the true meaning.
Today at the Staff meeting, I directly asked both Khortytsia commander, General Syrskyi, and Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny about their view of the further defense operation in the Bakhmut sector.
Either withdrawal or continuation of defense and reinforcement of the city.
Both generals replied: do not withdraw and reinforce. And this opinion was unanimously backed by the Staff.
There were no other opinions.
I told the Commander-in-Chief to find the appropriate forces to help the guys in Bakhmut.
There is no part of Ukraine about which one can say that it can be abandoned. There is no Ukrainian trench in which the resilience and heroism of our warriors would be disregarded.
The occupier kills for the very fact that we are Ukrainians. For the mere word about Ukraine. For our dream of Ukraine. For our lives – the lives of Ukrainians.
And we are destroying the occupier everywhere – wherever it yields results for Ukraine.
Bakhmut has yielded and is yielding one of the greatest results during this war, during the entire battle for Donbas.
And I thank every soldier who is fighting in this most difficult area. Who is fighting for all parts of our country, in all directions.
Here’s the video:
The occupier is killing for the very fact that we are Ukrainians, for the mere word about Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
6 March 2023 – 22:26
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
I started the day with a meeting of the Staff. A detailed meeting.
We reviewed the situation in the operational directions, at each key point of hostilities. The Commander-in-Chief, commanders, and intelligence delivered reports. There was a special report on the situation in Bakhmut, around the city, and more than an hour-long conversation. In fact, it was the topic of Bakhmut that became the main topic for this meeting.
I want to be honest about such topics.
Unfortunately, there are many different disinformation messages. From those who don’t even have access to absolutely confidential discussions about defense, but claim something about some alleged decisions on defense issues.
Society must understand the meaning of our defense operations, the true meaning.
Today at the Staff meeting, I directly asked both Khortytsia commander, General Syrskyi, and Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny about their view of the further defense operation in the Bakhmut sector.
Either withdrawal or continuation of defense and reinforcement of the city.
Both generals replied: do not withdraw and reinforce. And this opinion was unanimously backed by the Staff.
There were no other opinions.
I told the Commander-in-Chief to find the appropriate forces to help the guys in Bakhmut.
There is no part of Ukraine about which one can say that it can be abandoned. There is no Ukrainian trench in which the resilience and heroism of our warriors would be disregarded.
The occupier kills for the very fact that we are Ukrainians. For the mere word about Ukraine. For our dream of Ukraine. For our lives – the lives of Ukrainians.
And we are destroying the occupier everywhere – wherever it yields results for Ukraine.
Bakhmut has yielded and is yielding one of the greatest results during this war, during the entire battle for Donbas.
And I thank every soldier who is fighting in this most difficult area. Who is fighting for all parts of our country, in all directions.
We are defending and will continue to defend every part of Ukraine. When the time comes, we will liberate every city and village of our country. And we will hold the occupier accountable for every shot against Ukraine, for every meanness against Ukrainians.
If we can do it legally, then we will do it legally. If we can do it with weapons, then we will do it with weapons.
Due to our unity, due to our determination, due to the fact that we value the whole of Ukraine and every Ukrainian, we know exactly the outcome of this war.
We have known it since the first days of the war.
In Ukraine, we will always hear: “Glory to Ukraine!”. And millions will always respond: “Glory to the Heroes!”. It will always be like that.
Ukraine will not forget the feat of each and every one whose lives gave freedom to Ukraine forever.
Today, a video has emerged of the occupiers brutally killing a warrior who bravely said to their faces: “Glory to Ukraine!”.
I want us all to respond to his words together, in unity: “Glory to the Hero! Glory to the Heroes! Glory to Ukraine!”
And we will find the murderers.
I thank everyone who is now fighting for Ukraine! I thank everyone who helps Ukraine!
Eternal memory and honor to all those who gave lives for freedom for our people!
Eternal memory and honor to all Ukrainian heroes of different times who dreamed and fought for freedom for Ukraine!
Ukraine will emerge victorious!
Glory to Ukraine!
Until or unless we get more clarity regarding what is going on in, around, and near Bakhmut through open sources we have to accept that the Ukrainian National Command Authority has a far better common operating picture than we do. We won’t know for a while if this is effective operational art bordering on strategic genius or strategic malpractice. However, I think by now the Ukrainian leadership has earned the benefit of the doubt.
I want to highlight this part:
The occupier kills for the very fact that we are Ukrainians. For the mere word about Ukraine. For our dream of Ukraine. For our lives – the lives of Ukrainians.
Today, a video has emerged of the occupiers brutally killing a warrior who bravely said to their faces: “Glory to Ukraine!”.
I’m not going to link the video. I’ve watched it. There is no doubt it is a war crime. This is the Soldier before they executed him:
He smoked his cigarette and calmly, in their faces said to his captors: “Slava Ukrainy”. And then cursing Russians shot him, unarmed, with multiple rounds. They recorded execution and put online, it immediately became viral. Just a regular Ukrainian soldier. Unknown hero. RIP. pic.twitter.com/wGSJeYOWsv
— Andriy P. Zagorodnyuk (@Andriypzag) March 6, 2023
From the Georgian Legion:
There will be statues of him in liberated cities, mark our words. And they will represent EVERYONE who said Slava Ukraini to rashists pic.twitter.com/O93WaBxzHo
— Georgian Legion (@georgian_legion) March 6, 2023
And a haunting image:
— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) March 6, 2023
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut. Most recent first:
BAKHMUT/2215 UTC 6 MAR/ RU continues incremental advances in the N urban areas. UKR has established a defensive line conforming to the west bank of the Bakhmutka River. UKR forces maintain defensive positions and Lines of Communication & Supply (LOCS). #Bakhmut #BakhmutHolds pic.twitter.com/HpYxSNRoMn
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 6, 2023
BAKHMUT/2215 UTC 6 MAR/ RU continues incremental advances in the N urban areas. UKR has established a defensive line conforming to the west bank of the Bakhmutka River. UKR forces maintain defensive positions and Lines of Communication & Supply (LOCS). #Bakhmut #BakhmutHolds pic.twitter.com/HpYxSNRoMn
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 6, 2023
Bakhmut:
More @SecDef on #Bakhmut: “The fall of Bakhmut won't necessarily mean that the Russians have changed the tide of this fight. It will continue to be contested."
— Felicia Schwartz (@felschwartz) March 6, 2023
Border guards in Bakhmut this morning pic.twitter.com/MOQByzFQzd
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 6, 2023
Update on Bakhmut from the Ukrainian correspondent Yuriy Butusov (https://t.co/0ILhY32A6A):
"The situation in Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces hold most of the city, including the center. Although some of our units were withdrawn from the city, this is more a matter of rotation and not… https://t.co/2TTrqqDkH2
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 6, 2023
The Kyiv Independent has multiple reports regarding Bakhmut that they have published over the past couple of days.
Here’s some of their reporting from an embed with the 24th Mechanized Brigade:
DONETSK OBLAST – At a cottage-turned-base some two kilometers from the front lines in Donetsk Oblast, soldiers from Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Brigade lay in sleeping bags or armchair sofa beds, hoping to get some rest in between rotations.
The 24th Mechanized Brigade took part in the Kherson counteroffensive, battles in Luhansk Oblast, and spent over two months in Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, the hottest spot of Russia’s war.
The platoon, part of the 24th, was deployed to Bakhmut with barely any break. The Kyiv Independent spent five days with the platoon after it was withdrawn from the city.
For several weeks, now out of Bakhmut, the soldiers say their front line north of the city has been rather stable. But with the Russian forces advancing in the Bakhmut area, they say the dynamic of the war could shift at any moment.
Platoon commander Oleh, 57, says it’s vital not to underestimate the enemy.
“This direction is more or less calm for now, but I don’t think for long,” Oleh said. “I think the Russians will attack further and further.”
Russia has amassed troops for months to capture Bakhmut, a city nearly emptied of its 70,000 residents.
Despite heavy casualties, Russian forces, aided by the Kremlin-backed private mercenary Wagner Group, are inching toward encircling the city, posing threats to the surrounding areas – like the one where Oleh’s platoon is deployed – in Donetsk Oblast.
“I wouldn’t say that Russia is seeing the results it claims, but its tactics are still working,” Oleh said.
The two and a half months in Bakhmut seemed like a survival challenge for the platoon.
Oleh says he barely slept while in Bakhmut.
“I slept there without undressing at all, I just took off my shoes,” Oleh said, explaining that he slept in his helmet and bulletproof vest because he could be called up at any moment.
He says his platoon had less work at night because Russia unleashed fewer drones in the dark – likely because it was harder to conduct air reconnaissance. But they were always on alert, with soldiers on duty observing the screen with thermal surveillance cameras to detect aerial targets.
Russian forces attacked in small groups again and again, composed of some 10 people, Ukrainian soldiers said, adding that their tactics have changed from attacking in larger groups twice or three times that size.
Oleh always thought something was off with the Russian soldiers assaulting the city. He said they stormed Ukrainian positions like “zombies,” not afraid to die as if they had been drugged.
“It was very similar to what I saw in the Terminator,” Oleh said, referring to an American film about a cyborg assassin sent on a mission to kill.
Ukrainian soldiers from a different platoon, currently fighting in Bakhmut, described a similar scene.
Oleh’s soldiers used anti-drone guns to take down Russian drones. They release radio signals to down the drones without destroying them, allowing Ukraine to collect intelligence from them later.
Soldiers from Oleh’s platoon said Russian drones would fly as high as two kilometers above the ground. They often don’t know which ones carry grenades, so their task was to down as many of them as possible to protect infantry units from aerial targets.
“It became harder each week,” Oleh said as he recalled his time in the city. “When drones fly into the city, it means that they are going to soon fire with long-range artillery.”
“It was difficult to stay alive,” he added.
Much more at the link!
Here’s their reporting from this evening about the situation in Bakhmut:
The tensions surrounding the embattled city of Bakhmut have reached their all-time high as Russia throws even more Wagner mercenary forces onto the battlefield, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a statement published on March 6.
The commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, who visited Bakhmut on March 5, said that Ukrainian forces are “courageously” defending their positions north of the city. He claimed that Ukraine inflicted “significant losses” on the regular Russian army and the Wagner mercenaries.
Russia is inching closer to encircling Bakhmut, a city in Donetsk Oblast that nearly emptied of its 70,000 residents. Logistics into Bakhmut are becoming increasingly difficult as the Russian forces slowly capture settlements near the city.
As the tough situation continues in Bakhmut, the Ukrainian military leadership said that withdrawal from the city is on the table, but such a decision has not been made yet.
Ukraine’s next step in Bakhmut is reportedly being discussed at the top level. The German Bild magazine reported on March 6, citing unnamed sources in the Ukrainian government, that President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi disagree on how the military should handle the situation in Bakhmut.
According to the unnamed sources cited by Bild, Zaluzhnyi suggested a tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut weeks ago over concerns for the wellbeing of his troops. A military analyst, who spoke anonymously with Bild, said that “the vast majority of soldiers in Bakhmut do not understand why the city is being held.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on March 6 that Bakhmut had more “symbolic” value than a “strategic one” for the Ukrainian military, and he predicted that Ukraine’s potential withdrawal from the city would not cause any major setbacks in the war.
NATO intelligence estimates that Russia has lost five times more soldiers than Ukraine in the battle of Bakhmut, CNN reported, citing an unnamed military official with the alliance.
More at the link!
And a bit more from another of their reports from earlier this evening:
Russian troops struck Ukrainian positions near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast about 130 times on March 6, according to Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesman for the eastern grouping of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
Russia has thrown its best units at Ukraine’s eastern city of Bakhmut and is conducting the most intensive artillery fire on that area, Cherevatyi said on national television, commenting on a recent statement by Ukraine’s Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi that the battle for Bakhmut has reached its peak.
In its evening update, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that Russia continued storming Bakhmut and its surroundings “regardless of its losses.”
Russian troops also tried to advance in the areas of Zaliznianske, Dubovo-Vasylivka, and Ivanivske north and west from Bakhmut, but didn’t succeed, according to the General Staff.
The battle for Bakhmut, a city in Donetsk Oblast, has been raging for the past seven months. The Russian military is attempting to increase its grip over the entirety of the oblast, around half of which it currently occupies.
Ukrainian infantrymen recently told the Kyiv Independent of unprepared, poorly-trained battalions being sent to the front line to survive as best they could with little support from armored vehicles, mortars, artillery, drones, and tactical information.
More at the link!
Finally, some excerpts from their reporting from yesterday:
KOSTIANTYNIVKA, Donetsk Oblast – Russia’s relentless assault on Bakhmut is sacrificing waves and waves of unprepared men being sent to their deaths.
But multiple defenders of this embattled city in Donetsk Oblast feel that they are in a similar boat, according to interviews with more than a dozen soldiers currently fighting in or around Bakhmut.
During their brief visits to the nearby town of Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian infantrymen told the Kyiv Independent of unprepared, poorly-trained battalions being thrown into the front line meat grinder to survive as best they could with little support from armored vehicles, mortars, artillery, drones and tactical information.
“We don’t get any support,” says a soldier named Serhiy, who has been fighting on the front lines in Bakhmut, sitting down with his friend, also named Serhiy, for a conversation in a small cafe in the Kostiantynivka market. Both men are in their 40s but one of them is a bit older than the other.
All soldiers in this article have been identified only by first name or callsign because they spoke to a publication without authorization by a press officer.
They say that Russian artillery, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers are often allowed to strike Ukrainian positions for hours or days without being shut down by Ukrainian heavy weapons. Some complained of poor coordination and situational awareness, allowing this to happen or making it even worse.
Mortarmen spoke of extreme ammunition scarcity and having to use weapons dating back to World War II. Drones that are supposed to provide critical reconnaissance information are also scarce and are being lost at very high rates in some parts of the battlefield.
All this leads to terrifying casualties of both dead and wounded. “The battalion came in in the middle of December… between all the different platoons, there were 500 of us,” says Borys, a combat medic from Odesa Oblast fighting around Bakhmut. “A month ago, there were literally 150 of us.”
“When you go out to the position, it’s not even a 50/50 chance that you’ll come out of there (alive),” says the older Serhiy. “It’s more like 30/70.”
The Office of the President of Ukraine has claimed that Russia may have lost tens of thousands of men during the Battle of Bakhmut as of mid-January. Fighting has since only intensified, with Ukraine repeatedly claiming close to a thousand Russians dead in its daily updates. As Bakhmut is seeing the heaviest fighting, most of these casualties are likely in that area. Authorities haven’t revealed any information on Ukrainian losses in the Battle of Bakhmut.
Based on the soldiers’ testimonies, Ukrainian losses appear to be high as well.
Worse by the day
Bakhmut has been the site of very heavy fighting for months, but in the past few weeks, Russian attacks have intensified to an insane degree according to most interviewees.
Multiple soldiers say that they are under massive assault from both Wagner Group mercenaries and regular Russian forces.
“There’s Wagner and there’s two brigades of airborne assault,” says Oleksandr, an infantryman from Sumy, who is part of a Ukrainian assault battalion in Bakhmut. “It’s rough. Constant waves, nonstop.”
Some have characterized the Russian attacks as huge waves of cannon fodder, while others say that the invaders’ tactics have evolved to keep up with the battlefield.
The older Serhiy says that the enemy likes to send a team of three or four expendable foot soldiers to attack and make the Ukrainians expose themselves by shooting at them. At that point, the more elite forces zero in on the defenders’ position.
Once they begin exchanging fire, the Ukrainians are struck with heavier weapons like Russian mortars and rockets from Grad multiple launch rocket systems or BMP infantry fighting vehicles and BTR armored personnel carriers with machine guns.
“They get the positions where we are, establish the coordinates, then they hit us from seven to nine kilometers out with mortars,” as well as from closer by with grenade launchers, says the older Serhiy. “They wait for the house to fall so we have to jump out. The building catches fire and then they try to finish us off.”
“Their birds come out and they chase us with fire,” adds the younger Serhiy, referring to Russian UAVs, like quadcopters and Orlan-10 fixed wing drones that spot distant heavy weapons. “They hit accurately.”
As Russians destroy more and more buildings, Ukrainians keep losing more places where they can reliably take cover. Borys the medic says people have been lost when their entrenched positions collapsed from heavy Russian fire, suffocating them.
“I’ll put it like this, we should get our people out because if we don’t take off, then in the next few weeks, it’s going to be bad,” says Oleksandr. A mortarman named Illia agrees that Bakhmut is “practically encircled.”
On March 3, a key bridge connecting Bakhmut with the village of Khromove on its edge was destroyed. This was a vital artery for evacuating civilians and transporting supplies from the town of Chasiv Yar. CNN reported and soldiers confirmed that the bridge was destroyed by a Russian attack.
Much, much more at the link!
Kherson; reporting from Ukrainska Pravda:
efence Forces of Ukraine’s south killed 18 soldiers of a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group (SRG) moving on motorboats near the city of Kherson on 5-6 March.
Source: Operational Command Pivden (South) on Facebook
Quote: “3 civilian motor boats converted by the occupiers, along with a SRG, were sent along a course known to the whole world [i.e., killed – ed.] in the area of the Velykyi Potomkin Island [near Kherson]. 18 Ruscists were demilitarised [i.e., killed].”
In addition, the report says, Ukraine’s Rocket Forces and Artillery units, performing firing missions at carefully verified coordinates, destroyed three anti-aircraft missile systems, two units of engineering equipment used by Russian troops to set up defences on the left bank part of Kherson Oblast, two observation posts and a storage point.
Kramatorsk:
The ruins of Kramatorsk School No. 1, destroyed in an overnight Russian attack… pic.twitter.com/ZzUMrQ5vb3
— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) March 6, 2023
Huliapole:
This series is not about heroic defenders. These are the stories of ordinary Ukrainians who, one February day a year ago, found themselves caught in the midst of an unprovoked 🇷🇺 invasion. «Huliaipole», the 6th episode of the «Kids of Bomb Shelters» series by @ulybinyulian
1/3 pic.twitter.com/t31Rk5CrAq— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 6, 2023
Huliaipole, a town in the middle of the 🇺🇦 steppe. It became a fiery border, which the invaders had been unable to cross for a year. Children, women, elderly people who passed through this fire are in the 6th episode of the «Kids of Bomb Shelters» series by @ulybinyulian
2/3 pic.twitter.com/F86MAHJu6P— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 6, 2023
They can destroy our houses, steal our grain. But russians do not have the power to make our people renounce their ancestors, their language, and their land. Unconquered Huliaipole and its residents in the 6th episode of the «Kids of Bomb Shelters» series by @ulybinyulian
3/3 pic.twitter.com/BwOhI0hbUz— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 6, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Героям Слава! Glory to heroes. Dedicated to a soldier who was shot in captivity. pic.twitter.com/hkB5yPIBXq
— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 6, 2023
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Лайк, якщо усміхнулись😊 #песпатрон
The caption machine translates as:
Like if you smiled 😊 #песпатрон
Open thread!
Carlo Graziani
Good update, Adam. Thanks again.
I would guess that the UA judges the casualty and materiel exchange ratios to still favor them, and wish to prep for an offensive at the end of mud season by killing as many Russians, and destroying as much of their stuff beforehand as they can induce them to sacrifice for this strategic idiocy.
A secondary motive would be to mislead the Russians into the belief that Bakhmut is a principled “hold at any cost” stand for them, which isn’t hard, because that’s how the Russians think. That would cause them to increase the feed rate into the meat grinder.
cain
Thanks for the update – glad you didn’t post the video of the Ukrainian soldier getting shot – but damn. Yeah, that’s one hell of a war crime. They will only harden the resolve of the UKRs.
ETA #2!
Alison Rose
Fucking monsters. Good God. May that soldier’s memory be a blessing and may his ghost haunt his killers for the rest of their hopefully few days.
Also: He said they stormed Ukrainian positions like “zombies,” not afraid to die as if they had been drugged. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if they had been. If it makes them easier to defeat, so be it.
All this because one sad, crazy, pathetic old man refuses to stop living in his twisted fantasy world and too many people have coddled him for far too long. Jews don’t really believe in Hell but when that miserable bastard finally dies, I hope his room in Olam Ha-Ba has him strapped to a chair, eyes held open Clockwork Orange style, in front of a massive TV showing Ukrainian parades and celebrations and victory speeches on a loop.
Thank you as always, Adam. (Also Chag Purim Sameach to you and yours.)
japa21
Bahkmut will go down in history. However it ends up, the stories will all point to Ukraine’s glory.
Adam, reports of a couple Ukrainian pilots in the US being tested on F-16 simulators. The official word is its no big deal and the no F-16 rule is still in effect, but it does make one wonder.
japa21
@Alison Rose: I love the way you think.
Alison Rose
@japa21: I swear I am generally all about non-violence.
Sometimes, one must make an exception.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@japa21: I live in Madison WI, and last summer when my neighbor and I looked up at some unfamiliar planes–T-38 Talons–we both thought, “Damn, I bet those are Ukranian pilots in training.” Maybe wishful thinking, but may it be true if not in that instance but within the bigger picture!
EZSmirkzz
It would appear that President Zelenskyy has said “Nuts!”
My first thought was Valley Forge, then the Battle of the Bulge. I have urged this community not to underestimate the Russians, and now I urge you not to underestimate the Ukrainians either.
Col. Lang reminded of the difference between advocacy and analysis, which is easier said than done.
Thanks for the free labor Adam!
ETA I couldn’t edit the email typo, mea culpa.
Anoniminous
5:1 casualty ratio is unsustainable for the Russians. Especially when the fact that at best the Russian casualty ratio is 2:3 KIA/WIA and more likely 3:2 or even 4:2 since Wagner doesn’t believe in things like combat medics and medvac.
In other things ………
Russia has started supplying BTR-50s to their troops. That was a piece of
shitequipment designed in 1952, first issued in 1954 and retired in 1970. It has homogeneous, cold rolled, welded steel armor, 13 mm front, 10 mm sides, 10 mm top, 7 mm rear which means a .50 cal machine gun can punch holes in it within combat range and if the rounds don’t penetrate there will be little pieces of metal flying around the turret (spalling) turning various body parts into hamburger. They are also issuing WW 2 personal, e.g. Mosin–Nagant bolt action rifles, and support, e.g., mortars, weapons to the newly mobilized. T-62MsT-62Ms are now ‘standard issue’ for armor units.While they didn’t go into it these are some of the reasons the Institute for the Study of War thinks:
“Russia’s offensive to capture Bakhmut will likely culminate whether its forces capture the city or not. The Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months, giving Ukraine a chance to seize the initiative.”
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Army is rapidly becoming a 2023 NATO equipped and qualified army.
Dan B
It’s hard to read the soldier’s accounts of being in the battles in Bahkmut. The statistics are also awful. 350 dead out of 500 is horrifying.
Anoniminous
@Alison Rose:
I think most people here are “all about non-violence” when it is possible. When not, speaking strictly for me, I hold with Uncle Billy, “War is the remedy that our enemies have chosen, and I say let us give them all they want.”
Omnes Omnibus
@Anoniminous: BTR-50s? Holy fuck, that would be sad if it wasn’t so great.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: It’s horrific. But (and I’m sorry to have to do this) I think we should remember Bucha, and the many well-documented proofs of outright murders of Ukrainians (esp males) in Bucha. I will not even describe them, but it wasn’t only mass graves. And there are even worse crimes we have all read about, perpetrated upon women and children.
This courageous and honorable Ukrainian soldier deserves our respect and admiration, but I just feel that, well, his murder isn’t the worst of the war crimes we’ve all been witness to: far, far, far worse have already been perpetrated, and we’ve seen the results.
Another Scott
Oryx and others had tweets today with the “musicians” arriving at the Bakhmut tank monument in the eastern part of the city.
I’m confused by lots of the reporting. Too many of the headlines seem to be wanting to predict what is going to happen over reporting what is actually happening. The “musicians” whining/whinging about lack of supplies; the Ukrainian ministers talking about the russians running out of materiel soon; etc., do not seem consistent with reports of Bakhmut falling any hour now…
Dunno.
Agreed that the Ukrainians know better than anyone outside what is actually happening. They have earned the benefit of the doubt and some peace and quiet from the backseat drivers.
Thanks.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
trollhattan
@japa21: Maybe the training is investment in case they’re supplied some time down the road?
Am dubious western planes will be supplied anytime soon but I also believe it will in no way be signaled in advance should it happen.
Teaching tank drivers is a whole different thing. Looks like Challengers, Leopards and Abrams will be ready to go by spring, if not sooner. Russia is digging deeper into their Cold War stores, in the meantime.
Scamp Dog
The casualty ratio is the number I’ve been wondering about. Russia’s population is about 3 times Ukraine’s, so a 5:1 ratio sounds good-ish, but 150 left from 500 in the Ukrainian unit is sobering.
Alison Rose
@Chetan Murthy: No one said it was the worst.
Lums Better Half
Were there supposed to be two different Pfarrer tweets? I am seeing the same one repeated.
Geminid
@Dan B: Thats’s not neccesarily 350 dead. The figure would include the wounded, and maybe some soldiers who broke down physically or mentally. It’s still a terrible toll.
Ruckus
@Alison Rose:
I won’t tell you what I’d like to see, first because we were asked not to, and second because I doubt anyone in Russia would be able to do that as he very likely has a ton of personal bodyguards that are being watched by another group and so on likely 4 or 5 deep. They get paid very well and are very likely under constant watch to make sure they die before he does. Because you know he thinks his poop doesn’t stink and he’s going to live forever. Amazing how wrong an utter asshole can be….
BruceFromOhio
Good hunting.
Anoniminous
@Omnes Omnibus:
Oh it gets better.
Desperate Russian Forces Are Sticking 80-Year-Old Naval Guns On 70-Year-Old Armored Tractors
“The Russian army is welding 80-year-old gun mounts, originally built to arm patrol boats, onto 70-year-old armored tractors—and sending them to Ukraine to get captured by the Ukrainian army.
The first of these weirdo MT-LBs started showing up in Ukraine last month. On or before Feb. 3, Ukrainian forces in Vuhledar captured from hapless Russian brigades a 13-ton, two-crew MT-LB sporting a 2M-7 gunboat turret.
The 2M-7 is an over-under pair of 14.5-millimeter machine guns behind a steel shield. It entered service with Soviet forces in 1945.
In early March, photos circulated online depicting MT-LBs with 2M-3 naval turrets welded to their roofs. The 2M-3 is two 25-millimeter auto-cannons, one atop the other in an enclosed casing. The 2M-3 made its debut in 1953.”
How’d you like to go to war in one of them things?
“Second Army in the world” my ass.
Mallard Filmore
For some unusual drone operation …
Omnes Omnibus
Um, no, but thank you for asking. Dear god.
Alison Rose
@Ruckus: I honestly would not be surprised if he thinks he’s immortal. Although…the whole NO ONE COME CLOSER THAN A QUARTER MILE AWAY FROM ME thing with that ridiculous conference table might indicate otherwise.
Alison Rose
@Anoniminous: So they’re like MacGyver, if MacGyver was stupid and crazy.
Chetan Murthy
@Anoniminous: when these popped-up on twitter, I read the replies to a thread about ’em. Apparently the idea is, they’re for anti-drone work. And at least some people thought that wasn’t a stupid use. Obvs. better if it were computer-controlled (like Gepards) but OTOH the UAF are also fielding AA guns bolted to the back of pickups for the same use-case.
Anoniminous
@Mallard Filmore:
I’m always up for some hot drone-on-tank action.
Ruckus
@Geminid:
As this is all out warfare, if the count of dead bodies of the attackers is quite a bit higher that of Ukraine casualties, on the order of 3-5 or higher, to 1, that is unfortunately the cost of war. And no I don’t want one person other than vlad to go bye bye. But I rarely to never get what I want. I often have to settle for a lot less.
But, because vlad gives not one rat’s ass about any of his citizens, or all of them together, there are only two likely scenarios: Ukraine kills of all the Russians sent to steal their country, or someone inside knocks off vlad. I’m not holding my breath for #2.
This all in for no realistic reasoning is warfare that Russia is used to through out it’s history and is likely the only concept of war that vlad has any capability to think is possible. Russian citizens have for centuries always had to die for the leader’s concept of his greatness and often insane concept of warfare of any era. The only thing that has ever caused a break in that is someone knocks off the supreme being.
Dan B
@Geminid: I wondered if casualties included wounded or otherwise unable to fight.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: An AA gun mounted on a truck is a mobile platform that can move all over the place and take shelter when it needs to. These things look like they will probably kill their operators and will have the mobile of a stranded barge. Smells of desperation and not creativity to me.
ronno2018
Thanks for these posts — these and https://www.youtube.com/c/JakeBroe have been super helpful to follow this damn stupid insane and frickin why are humans so evil war.
Omnes Omnibus
@Dan B:
That is the usual way of calculating casualties.
Geminid
What Ukraine needs now are more MIGs and Sukhois, fighter jets that their pilots can step into and fly efficiently and that ground crews are experienced at servicing. Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria have them and may have supplied Ukraine with some already, without either country announcing it.
And fighter jets are a means to an end, and in this war the ends are delivering ordnance onto targets and defending Ukraine from missiles, drones and fighter bombers. The former can be done with ground launched rockets and artillery shells, especially precision Excalibur rounds and the like. Air defence can be enhanced with more and better anti-air missile systems.
Anoniminous
@Alison Rose:
Can’t fight 21st Century Combined Arms* battles with that garbage. Those thing, plus what else we’re hearing about the Russian Army’s logistics and combat expertise, means the Russians have lost the war. The only real question is the final butcher’s bill. Which is contingent on how many non-Russians are willing to die for Putin’s & Etc. dream of Greater Russia. Because it ain’t the Russians who are dying in this war.
* not that the Orcs have demonstrated an ability to conduct Combined Arms battles since 1945 — and they weren’t so hot even then.
Omnes Omnibus
That’s also my take.
Carlo Graziani
You know, I remember very similar quotes given “unofficially” to reporters by Territorial soldiers during the Battle of Severodonetsk. They bitched about how bad their lot was, how poorly-supported and abandoned they felt, and about how they weren’t really any better off than the Russians who were taking devastating casualties clearing the city street-by-street. And yet, instead of breaking and getting routed (as one might expect if those troops had really been in such dire straits), the UA executed an orderly retreat over the Siverskyi Donets river using what was left of the highway bridge, to neighboring Lysichansk, ready to greet some more Russian sacrificial offerings.
It looked like a great information op to me, and I wrote as much here at the time. So insofar as the above reporting is concerned, it looks like an encore to me. There are already many echoes of the Severodonetsk battle at Bakhmut, and now it looks as if the UA is replaying the same ruse, counting on the undeniable fact that the Russian military is not a Learning Organization. Good for them.
Ruckus
@Alison Rose:
He knows deep down he’s not immortal. He might not be willing to admit it but he knows. He is taking precautions, or acting like a spoiled fucking brat because he is and doesn’t give a damn. I’m going with #2.
The likelihood of anyone trying to knock him off is very slim because he takes those precautions of staying away from others and only allows, likely under penalty of instant death by his goon squad, very few people to get near enough to him to do anything to him. He likely makes his goon squad taste his food. He knows what he’s doing and he knows no one in Russia likes it, the part that counts is that first, he’s likely being lied to on a massive scale, and second, he KNOWS that he has to win or someone will take that chance that they can take him out, one way or another. What do you think would happen if we gave Ukraine long range weapons? Because Kiev is only 469 miles from Moscow.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani: Not to make light of soldiers in a tough place, but, if they were perky and upbeat, I would be worried about them. The one universal right of a soldier is to bitch and complain and, by god, they exercise it.
Carlo Graziani
@Ruckus:
Oh go on, you know you want to. Here, I’ll go first: I’d like to see Putin’s teeth erupt from the front of his face at roughly the speed of sound, escorted by some metal and portions of the back of his skull, and festively trailing reddish, slimy gobbets of brain matter struggling to keep up due to air friction.
Our civility rule, observed more scrupolously of late, is to refrain from exterminationism. Wishing Putin a spectacular ejection from the mortal coil is totally in bounds.
Carlo Graziani
@Ruckus:
Do you think he makes them try his underwear on before he wears it himself?
The thing about Capos is that their iron control is a function of their perceived success and invincibility. A Capo who fucks up a lot starts to create doubt, disloyalty, and conspiracy among underlings who are getting fucked worse than he is.
Anoniminous
@Chetan Murthy:
My prediction: the Ukrainians will have a lot of fun blowing them to smithereens.
NutmegAgain
@Anoniminous: Clearly “second army” is mistranslated. It should be “Second WW army” ::cough, sputter:: /s
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: You’re absolutely correct. But I did, and do, find it odd that the UA’s lapses in its usual iron information and media control (remember Kherson?) follow a distinct pattern. I’d bet a modest stake at 3:1 odds that those soldiers were planted
pat
I see these pictures of all these cities totally destroyed and I have to think, what if russia wins and takes over these areas. Does anyone believe they will actually rebuild anything?
The whole sorry thing is insane.
Thanks, Adam. I come here every night. I wish one of the MSM would devote more time to this sort of thing.
Chetan Murthy
@pat: From what I have read, outside the cities of Muscovy and the most important regional capitals, they don’t rebuild, no. They don’t invest at all.
Alison Rose
@Carlo Graziani: We could also go with one of my favorite movie quotes:
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: ending to Fargo, only feet-first
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose: Good one. Alternatively, if death is too good for him, he could always be assigned a prison job like, say, Veterinary Suppository Administrator, Skunk Division, for the local zoo inmate outplacement program.
Geminid
@Geminid: The US may be also hesitant to supply F-16s because of cost. We are working with the $44 billion appropriated for the purpose in the Omnibus Bill passed last December. It’s possible that Congress will appropriate more money later this year, but it’s not a certainty. That prospect may hinge upon Ukraine’s battlefield success in the next 4-5 months.
So there could be trade-off between fighter jets and ordnance for other systems already provided, and new platforms like Bradley fighting vehicles. Fiighter jets are expensive, and it’s probably easier to shoot an F-16 down than it is to destroy a HIMARS launcher.
Alison Rose
@Carlo Graziani: LOLOL. Nice. He would certainly deserve to stink like that permanently.
(One time our dog got skunked, and holy hell. He smelled so bad, and my parents tried every remedy in the book and he still stunk for days.)
BeautifulPlumage
Hi Adam, thank you for the always thoughtful updates. I hope they end soon.
On another note, @wartranslated had this tweet yesterday from the semi-regular livestream by Oleksiy Arestovych.
“Putin’s response to sanctions In response to Western sanctions and the struggling Russian economy, Putin has signed a law allowing the confiscation and nationalization of Russian businesses that cannot fulfil their contractual obligations to the Russian military.”
Is that not the definition of communism? I hope a journalist picks up on that & asks Pooties minions in the US about that move (I also hope I win the lottery some day).
Anyway, wanted to get this out there. Link:
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1632167530809663492?cxt=HHwWiICx_Zfuz6YtAAAA
Peke Daddy
@Carlo Graziani:
@Carlo Graziani:
Make them think Bakhmut is to Ukraine as Verdun was to the French. But in reality, it is the reverse.
Ruckus
@Carlo Graziani:
I always hate to say it but this is a shooting war and people will die on both sides. We had 58,208 dead from Vietnam. And yes that was over 10 yrs and no it doesn’t count the damaged humans that I see at the VA every single time I go. I know a number of people that did go and I saw a lot of them when I was in a Navy hospital in 73 and have talked to men my age who haven’t fully recovered in 45-55 yrs.
Ruckus
@Carlo Graziani:
I do like your style…
However I was thinking a bit more graphic and a bit of adjusting certain body parts while he was still alive, to give him an idea of what should be done to him over a few days/weeks before he lost the battle of breathing. Then what you described, just to insure that no horrible mistakes happen. I suggest a .44 magnum hollow point for the best effect….
kalakal
@Anoniminous:
That’s what it looks like to me. Their main tank is now the T-62M? What’s next, raiding museums for T-55s?
@Peke Daddy:
It’s making me think more and more of Stalingrad. The UA seems to be feeding in troops at a level sufficient to hold while the RUA is committing more and more resources to the meat grinder. Are we going to see the Russians engulfed in a 21st century version of Operation Uranus when Ukraine commits it’s newly equipped and trained units? Or will they render the whole Russian assault on Bakhmut moot by a fast moving assault on an area denuded of forces by the quagmire that is Bakhmut? The disparity in weaponry is now spanning decades.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I would not use the word “bitching”, or that the hardship as info op., since meat grinding attritional warfare exact a heavy toll even on the favorable side of exchange rate. After the Ukrainian Army withdrew to Lysychansk, we expected them to hold the even more favorable grounds to attrition the Russian Army that much. It did not happen, the Russian Army outflanked the Ukrainian position at Lysychansk, & the Ukrainian Army had to withdraw quickly (but in relative good order) to escape encirclement. To me, that signaled the Ukrainian formations in the area had also been worn out from the battle over Severodonetsk. I was concerned about reports of TDFs from out of region being thrown into the meat grinder there, whether that mean Ukraine was running out of better troops. That turned out not to be the case, & the Ukrainian command was husbanding forces for surprise counterattacks at Kharkiv & Kherson.
I think we can trust that it is the case at Bakhmut, as well. In fact, I would be more concerned if the new Ukrainian brigades that we know are being trained in NATO countries are being thrown in there. Bakhmut is not worth exchanging NATO trained battalions for Wagner convicts, no matter the ratio. TDFs & 2nd line troops can serve that purpose well, if highly motivated (which the Ukrainians do not lack), decently supplied, & fighting from strong prepared positions, which they are. That does not mean such forces are not in terrible predicaments, though in service of what we all hope & believe to be larger objectives.
Aussie Sheila
@kalakal: I know literally nothing about battle or war tactics, except at the level of morale and industrial base being important.
But I hold by breath all the time as I read Adam’s updates, and console myself with the knowledge that the UA commanders, officers and soldiers know what they are doing, and will do it well.
I also know enough about other kinds of more peaceful conflict to know that those who have a clear eyed notion of victory and who are invested in their cause, will win against a bunch of low morale crims and conscripts, every time.
Now just give the UA army every thing they need, now, not in a months time after interminable wrangling with a bunch of German bureaucrats and their like. Ukraine will win.
The issue must be to ensure that their losses are kept to the minimum possible consistent with sending the Russians back across the border. It is terrible. I can’t believe we are seeing all this again.
Afterwards, Russia must never be allowed to be within cooee of the Ukrainian border again. Even if joining NATO might be a stretch for a while, there should be some arrangement between nations to guarantee their sovereignty.
Carlo Graziani
The WarZone ha a report about a new capability furnished to and probably already fielded in Ukraine: JDAM-ER guided bombs fitted to Ukrainian AF warplanes. 45 mile range, and a 2000lb explosive payload (10x the HIMARS M-31 munition payload). Major ouch, because the range counts from the aircraft release point, and nap-of-the-earth intrusion tactics could bring those large, GPS-guided payloads to much deeper targets than is possible with HIMARS strikes, even GLSDB ones. Kerch may suddenly be in danger again, unless the Russians can keep Ukrainian Mig-29s more than 45 miles away. And I bet that an intrusion plan with a reasonable likelihood of success can be concocted based on the Russians’ measured AD radar emissions.
Aussie Sheila
@Carlo Graziani: Make it so. I firmly believe that victory for Ukraine must include regaining Crimea. Apart from any other consideration I believe that the loss of the only viable warm water port available to Russia might be the one thing that rubs their noses in it enough to ensure that they either toss Putin, because of the humiliation, or, less likely, that Russian elites understand that dreams of Peter and Catherine (their Greats) are over.
Forever.
Maybe it will assist in Russian elites adjusting their appetites. But I don’t care about that.
Justice demands that they are relinquish their stolen goods or have them taken from them.
Mallard Filmore
@YY_Sima Qian:
I remember a lot of reporting on TV about the body count in the VietNam war. Good for [the pentagon’s] morale, did bugger all for the war.
Chetan Murthy
@Aussie Sheila: They’ll still have Novorossisk. But yeah, it’ll make ’em butthurt as all get out.
Omnes Omnibus
@YY_Sima Qian: I used the word “bitching” because that is a word soldiers use. It’s also a word officers use to describe what soldiers are doing. And it is, in fact, one of most soldiers favorite activities. It’s not a criticism coming from me. It’s me recognizing the authentic sound of soldiers throughout time.
Aussie Sheila
@Chetan Murthy: It will make a cause célèbre for right wingers opposing Putin within Russia. But I trust that their defeat will be so ineffably obvious that their appetite for careless imperial wars will choke them off for generations.
I fully expect any successor to Putin to be even worse. But the Ukrainian peoples’ sacrifice will have made their ability to do anything about it, moot. And I don’t think even the most deluded Russian nationalist would have the appetite to try something like this to their East. 1905 would be calling again.
Aussie Sheila
@Ruckus: I read your posts every time. I am so sorry for what you went through during Vietnam. And I am ashamed that my country also joined in and assisted in that god forsaken waste of peoples’ lives , limbs and happiness. I remember being 19. It is so criminal what young men were put through. I am truly sorry.
But I did do my bit to oppose it at home. Not that that helps at this time.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: Carlo, your comment didn’t make it completely obvious (until I, y’know, clicked-thru on the link you provided) that (haha) a USAF official has stated publicly that UA already has these JDAM-ER suckers, and also hinted that maybe they can already use ’em on their existing airframes. Heh. Just … heh.
Boy howdy, ain’t it great? I get that was carefully-choreographed info ops: first blow up some things but good (surprise surprise, Vova!) and then let ’em know to put the fear of JDAM in ’em to boot!
Frankensteinbeck
@Aussie Sheila:
I don’t, for one specific reason: If Putin is overthrown, it will be because his killers want to stop the war. “Putin isn’t trying hard enough” will cause grumbling and even less efficient operation of the Russian government, but not coups. Only “This war needs to stop and Putin is too crazy to do it” or “I’m not waiting to catch Windowitis” are going to make people in a position take such a big step.
I guess the latter is more of a crapshoot for his replacement? But it’s still based on “Putin will kill us all before admitting he’s lost” type logic, so it leans against an even crazier killer replacing him.
Aussie Sheila
@Frankensteinbeck: I understand your point, but I disagree. The best shot at turning him over is the one that says that ‘he didn’t even try!’ I don’t have a real fix on just how gung ho ordinary Russians are about this war. But I bet most of them consider themselves patriots. Like most people faced with a war they have no real control over or understanding of. You know, like the US circa Vietnam and Gulf Wars 1&2.
In those circumstances, it is usually the clique that promises to do the job better that wins. In the first instance.
YY_Sima Qian
@Omnes Omnibus: Understood.
Frankensteinbeck
@Aussie Sheila:
I’m trying to remember any even vaguely modern examples in these circumstances. Generally coups have been non-war-related. I recall failed attempts against Hitler. There hasn’t been a lot of ‘will not stop an offensive war that they’re losing.’ Even Vietnam, stubborn as we were, we gave up eventually. It wasn’t causing nearly as much suffering in the US as this in Russia, and all the serious threats to power were attempts to force peace. They weren’t anywhere near coups, either.
Aussie Sheila
@Frankensteinbeck: Nixon promised an end to the war on Vietnam then doubled down. He was re-elected in a landslide. It wasn’t a coup, sure, but it points to the way a patriotic public can be moved to ‘double down’.
Chetan Murthy
@Aussie Sheila: One of the things they say about Putin (and that, arguably, we can see) is that he’s excellent at one thing above all: eliminating alternatives to his rule. He’s been especially good at doing so to his “left” (toward moderation), and so what’s left are people more extreme than himself. And furthermore, the people most suffering from this war are ethnically non-Russian: and completely powerless to effect change, b/c out in the provinces.
Many commentators have pointed out that if Putin is deposed, it’s quite possible that it’ll be by somebody even more rabid than himself, somebody who really wants to “take the gloves off” in Ukraine (yes, we can think that they’ve already done so, but they haven’t — they haven’t, for instance, used nukes, as insane as that would be). Another thing I’ve read is that Putin cultivates the more-rabid elements in Russia’s elites, b/c their presence makes his dictatorship more essential: after all, without him, things could get worse, not better. So it forces any moderate opposition to be circumspect in opposing him — things could get worse, after all.
The one way that seems clear that Putin’s demise could help, is simply that his successor would need military power to cement their rule, to squash all the other pretenders to the throne, and that might divert resources from the war.
evodevo
@Alison Rose: Yeah lol – ours got skunked a few times over the years and NONE of the suggested remedies ever did the job…AND trying to wash it off just spreads it everywhere.
Frankensteinbeck
@Aussie Sheila:
My point. Nixon promised to make peace. All the change government sentiment was towards peace. In a Democracy where leadership change is a regular event, that was manipulatable by someone who wanted more war. In a coup, the plotters will know which side Putin’s successor is on.
Bill Arnold
I have not poked to see how Seymour “Sy” Hersh is handling this. Would be especially amusing if it turned out to be an operation by Russian commercial interests, with financial gain if the pipeline failed. Or Russian eco-activists using kinetic means. Or some holy combination. The shallow water always meant that it was possible that it was a non-nation-state actor. Civilian diving tech / explosives tech can be pretty good.
New intelligence points to pro-Ukraine group in Nord Stream attack, NYT reports (Reuters, March 7, 2023)(Reuters because no paywall, if you delete your cookies.)
This is also in the piece; the piece does not make it clear how it is related: