Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Infrastructure week. at last.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

A last alliance of elves and men. also pet photos.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

This fight is for everything.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 377: Just a Quick Update Tonight

War for Ukraine Day 377: Just a Quick Update Tonight

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

It’s been a long week and a long day, so just a quick update tonight.

First, we now have a positive confirmed identification of the Ukrainian Soldier who was executed in a Russian war crime:

Meduza has the details:

Representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have confirmed that the soldier, who was shot in a video that appeared on social networks on March 6, was a fighter from the 163rd battalion of the 119th separate brigade of the Territorial Defense Forces of the Chernihiv region, Oleksandr Matsiyevsky.

According to the Regional Directorate of the “North” Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine, on December 30, 2022, Matsiyevsky along with four of his comrades, was engaged in combat with superior Russian forces near Soledar. Communication was eventually lost, and reinforcements could not come due to heavy fire.

Much is still unknown, as his comrades are either still missing or dead. However, Matsievsky’s mother recognized him, as did his son and his fellow servicemembers. TV channel Suspilne published an interview with his mother.

Before the Russian invasion, Matsiyevsky worked as an electrician in Kyiv. After the war began, he volunteered for the territorial defense of Nizhyn in the Chernihiv region. Matsiyevsky’s body was handed over to his family as part of a casualty exchange between Russia and Ukraine. His relatives identified him in a Kyiv morgue.

Earlier, Ukrainian officials stated that the man in the video was a different prisoner of war, Timofey Shadura, a soldier of the 30th separate mechanized brigade named after Prince Konstantin Ostrozhsky, who went missing on February 3, 2023. At the same time, journalist Yury Butusov said that the video depicts exactly Oleksandr Matsiyevsky.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

No matter how treacherous Russia’s actions are, our state and people will not be in chains – address by President of Ukraine

9 March 2023 – 22:54

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today I held several meetings on the consequences of a massive attack on our infrastructure.

Another attempt by the terrorist state to wage war against civilization has led to temporary power, heat and water outages in some of our regions and cities.

Russian missiles have claimed the lives of six Ukrainians today. My condolences to the families…

Restoration work at power facilities has been ongoing all day. Kharkiv and the Zhytomyr region have the most difficult situation. Odesa, the Dnipropetrovsk region, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia are also facing difficulties.

Repair crews, power engineers, local authorities and the central government – everyone will work for as long as necessary to restore power supply to the cities and districts where there are problems. I thank everyone who is working for this.

We have already shown what Ukraine is capable of. And no matter how treacherous Russia’s actions are, our state and people will not be in chains. Neither missiles nor Russian atrocities will help them.

I want to thank all the warriors of our Air Forces today. And especially the 138th Dnipro, 160th Odesa and 208th Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigades, which distinguished themselves in the defense against this Russian attack. Thank you, warriors!

I am also grateful to everyone in the world who realizes how important it is to give full protection to the Ukrainian sky, and to everyone who is ready to help us guarantee normal life for people.

Today I spoke with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, in particular, about energy support for Ukraine. I informed her about the consequences of the attack by the terrorist state. I am grateful to Mrs. Ursula for the relevant assistance provided.

Of course, we also discussed the issue of putting pressure on Russia for terror. Sanctions pressure. Ways to expand sanctions.

By the way, as a result of this strike, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was disconnected from the power grid again. This is a critical situation. And Russia is deliberately creating such critical situations at our nuclear facilities. This simply means, by definition, that Russia cannot be a bona fide participant in any relations in the nuclear sphere.

This means that the sooner the Russian nuclear industry is subjected to sanctions, the safer the world will be. A terrorist state cannot be allowed to use any nuclear facilities anywhere in the world for terror.

Mrs. President of the European Commission also positively assessed the progress of our country in the anticorruption area. In particular, the approval of the Anticorruption Strategy and the appointment of a new NABU Director. This is important in the context of our further progress in European integration before the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.

Today I also had a rather long meeting with representatives of our cultural community. Theater, cinematography, music, literature, state cultural institutions, public initiatives. The Shevchenko Committee and Ukrainian journalists were represented.

We discussed ways to strengthen the capacity of Ukrainian culture to communicate with the world to ensure support for Ukraine. Diplomacy, journalism, and culture are the three areas that do the most to make the world understand our struggle and help us.

Of course, we also talked about our own national needs.

It is very important that the experience of a full-scale war, our soldiers, what they are going through at the front, the experience of Ukrainian trenches, the experience of our people who are actually defending European freedom, that all this experience be described by Ukrainians.

So that our culture, its figures, its institutions, could fill the need for a Ukrainian cultural product, for an understanding of the Ukrainian situation.

Ukraine has achieved the greatest national unity in its history. Ukraine has united the world. Ukrainians inspire hundreds of other nations with the way they defend their country and freedom. And it would be right that all this is reflected by Ukrainian culture, our institutions, and our people. Ukrainian cinematography, Ukrainian theater, Ukrainian literature, Ukrainian music, Ukrainian museums, Ukrainian visual art. So that all of this preserves the true experience of those who are going through the war, who are on the frontline, who are really experiencing what “Keep fighting – you are sure to win!” means.

Many ideas were voiced today. There are things that the state can and should do. There is something that depends on the cultural community itself.

I thank the participants of the meeting once again. And I thank all the Ukrainian cultural figures for this year and for all the years of Ukrainian independence, when we have grown stronger.

Glory to all those who are now fighting for Ukraine! Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Kupyansk, Lyman and the entire Donbas! Our Zaporizhzhia, Nikopol, Kherson region! Glory to all those who are defending our Sumy, our Chernihiv region, our Kharkiv region, all our cities and communities, and our border!

Glory to every Ukrainian soldier whose courage means the life of Ukraine!

Eternal and blessed memory to all those whom this war and Russia have taken from us!

There is no other choice but to win.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

Bakhmut:

The Russians opened up on the Ukrainians today with a cruise missile and drone barrage:

Yes, yes Ukraine does!

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that Slovakia is considering providing Ukraine with their old MiGs, which they’re transitioning away from:

Slovakia must make a decision on sending MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said on March 9, referring to a fleet of 11 that were retired last summer, not all of them in operational condition. Nad said he had spoken to Poland’s defense minister at a European Union meeting a day earlier and was told that Warsaw would agree to a joint process to hand over MiG-29 jets to Ukraine. Western countries that have provided Ukraine with arms have so far declined to send fighter jets. Poland has said it would be willing to send war planes in a coalition of countries.

For you art history fans, here’s a thread on Taras Schevenko. First tweet below, followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:

He was born in the village of Moryntsy, Cherkasy region, in a family of serf peasants (kripaky). He had a very poor and hard life. From a very young age, he served to a deacon and studied. Unable to endure bullying and feeling a great desire for painting, he ran away.Image
In 1828, Shevchenko was hired as a serving boy to a lord’s court in Vilshana and obtained permission to study with a local artist. When Taras was 14, Vasily Engelhardt died, and the village of Kyrylivka and all its people became the property of his son, Pavlo Engelhardt 
Shevchenko was turned into a court servant of his new master. From 1828 to 1831, Shevchenko stayed with his master in Vilnius. From those times, Shevchenko’s painting “Bust of a Woman” survived. In 1831, Engelgardt moved to Saint Petersburg.Image
To benefit from the artworks (since it was prestigious to have one’s own “chamber artist”), Engelgardt sent Shevchenko to painter Vasiliy Shiriayev for a four-year study. He met 🇺🇦artist Ivan Soshenko, who introduced him to other Ukrainians. Then they tried to ‘buy’ him a freedomImage
Painter and professor Karl Briullov donated a portrait of russian poet Vasily Zhukovsky as a lottery prize. Its proceeds were used to buy Shevchenko’s freedom on 5 May 1838. He was accepted as a student into the Academy of Arts in the workshop of Karl Briullov in the same year.Image
While residing in Saint Petersburg, Shevchenko made three trips to Ukraine in 1843, 1845, and 1846. The difficult conditions 🇺🇦 had made a profound impact on him, in 1844 decided to capture historical ruins and cultural monuments in an album of etchings – Picturesque Ukraine.ImageImageImageImage
In Ukraine, he met with historian Mykola Kostomarov and other members of the Brotherhood of Saints Cyril and Methodius, a society dedicated to the political liberalization of the Empire. He was arrested together with the members of the society on 5 April 1847.Image
In the official report, Shevchenko was accused of composing poetry in 🇺🇦language of outrageous content. In the report, Orlov listed the crimes as advocating and inspiring Ukrainian nationalists, alleging enslavement and misfortune of Ukraine, glorified Cossack liberties.Image
After being convicted, he was exiled to Orenburg at Orsk, near the Ural Mountains. Tsar Nicholas I personally confirmed his sentence, added to it, “Under the strictest surveillance, without the right to write or paint. But he did it secretly.ImageImageImageImage
In 1857 Shevchenko finally returned from exile after receiving amnesty from a new emperor. In May 1859, Shevchenko got permission to return to Ukraine. In July, he was again arrested on a charge of blasphemy but then released and ordered to return to St. Petersburg.Image
Shevchenko died on 10 March 1861. Fulfilling his wish, expressed in his poem “Testament”, to be buried in Ukraine, his friends arranged the transfer of his remains to his homeland. Shevchenko was re-buried on Monk’s Hill (today Taras Hill) near the Dnipro River in Kaniv.Image
Tomorrow I will tell you more about his impact on Ukrainian culture, his poetry, and Shevchenko as a symbol in art.

“Taras Hryhorovych Shevchenko Arrives From His Exile to Flowering Ukraine” (1968) by Maria PrimachenkoImage

This’ll get your attention:

That’s enough for tonight.

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    50Comments

    1. 1.

      Anonymous At Work

      The missiles Russian used in the latest, and most successful at evading UA’s air defenses, were Kh-47 hypersonics.  Solid fuel booster and precision guidance.  Google doesn’t list a price at a depth I care to search but looks like over $1 million easily, with $3 million not being out of the question.  Why is Putin wasting what might be some of the most expensive rounds in his arsenal like that?  Why use it on civilian targets when you know you’ll need them against Abrams/Leopards?

      Reply
    2. 2.

      Alison Rose

      Shevchenko’s art is gorgeous, thank you for sharing that thread.

      Question: If, God forbid and I hate to even type it, the worst comes to pass at Zaporizhzhia, what would be the response from the international community, if any? An explosion, meltdown, whatever it would be called…if that happens as a result of orc fuckery, what would happen after? And how far would the ripple effects of such an event spread? How many lives would it endanger?

      I wonder how many times Ukraine and others have to say “give them the weapons they need” before people actually do it.

      Thank you as always, Adam.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Anonymous At Work

      @Alison Rose: I’d guess it’d be an international disaster requiring international aid, UN monitors, etc. pour into the region and oversee the clean-up and distribute humanitarian aid.  And Putin would be hard-pressed or unable to keep them out.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Anonymous At Work

      @Anoniminous: Not always clear when you don’t know something vs. someone else is being really stupid.  I say this as someone who successfully plays poker for fun.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Andrya

      @Anonymous At Work: In 1940, Hitler redirected German bombers from bombing RAF facilities to indiscriminate bombing of civilians.  It was basically a temper tantrum because the British had bombed Berlin- but it gave the RAF much needed respite, without which Britain might have lost the Battle of Britain.

      This seems like a very similar decision.  I’d say the possibilities are:

      1. putin temper tantrum.
      2. Subordinate generals told “dramatic results NOW OR ELSE!”

      Either way, not rational thinking.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Anoniminous

      @Alison Rose: ​
       
      If the Russian commanders weren’t sociopathic murdering butchers they’d have shut down their winter offensive weeks ago. It’s achieved nothing but turning the Russian Army into a mutinous badly armed rabble almost without hope of being able to withstand the coming Ukrainian counter-offensive.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Bill Arnold

      @Anoniminous:
      Absolutely F-in stupid.
      If Ukrainians had such missiles, they would be used on high-value military targets.
      The parts of the Russian Black Sea surface fleet that launch cruise missiles against civilian targets in Ukraine would not long remain above the surface.
      Railroad bridges and other bridges used for military supply lines supporting Russian invaders/occupiers would be destroyed.
      Then Russian military targets in Russia would be attacked.
      Russian military air bases in Russia would be destroyed if involved in attacks on Ukraine.
      Russian supply depots in Russia would be destroyed if supplying forces invading/occupying Ukraine.
      Russian terror weapon factories might be destroyed, if in range.
      Russian civilian infrastructure, while quite vulnerable, would not be attacked, because such attacks are war crimes.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Alison Rose

      @Omnes Omnibus: I know, and I realize it’s not as easy as I might wish. It just feels like they’ve been pleading for months now for things it’s obvious they need, and it breaks my heart every time there are events that could possibly have been mitigated if they had better/more equipment.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      Anoniminous

      @Buskertype: ​
       
      Japan was being strangled by a US blockade, the people were starving, the 1945 harvest was disastrous, and the Japanese were already looking for a way out short of Unconditional Surrender.
      How much did the atomic bombs contribute to the Emperor’s decision to surrender?
      Have to ask someone more knowledgeable than I

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Anoniminous

      @Carlo Graziani: ​
       

      Why Did Milosevic Give Up?

      Even at the end of a war filled with surprises, Slobodan Milosevic found a way to catch NATO off guard. On June 3, 1999 the Serbian president suddenly accepted NATO’s demands for ending the conflict over Kosovo. Milosevic’s turnabout, coming after more than ten weeks of uneven bombing, was as unexpected as it was welcome. President Clinton and his advisors greeted the announcement cautiously; for almost a week, dubious NATO commanders continued to bomb until they hammered out the last details of the Serb withdrawal. Even now, the enigmatic Milosevic’s precise reasons for folding remains a puzzle.

      [emphasis added]

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Anonymous At Work: The fact that these missiles are unstoppable does not mean that they are accurate. Not much is officially know about these things. There are speculative claims of 10-20m CEP, but those are guesses. The fact that the Russians are pissing them away in this manner may be telling us what they think about their accuracy.

      Reply
    20. 20.

      Bill Arnold

      @Anoniminous:
      Also, mining was seriously disrupting logistics:
      Operation Starvation

      LeMay assigned one group of about 160 aircraft of the 313th Bombardment Wing to the task, with orders to plant 2,000 mines in April 1945. The mining runs were made by individual B-29 Superfortresses at night at moderately low altitudes.[2] Radar provided mine release information.[2]
      …
      Beginning on March 27, 1945, 1,000 parachute-retarded influence mines with magnetic and acoustic exploders were initially dropped, followed by many more, including models with water pressure displacement exploders. This mining proved the most efficient means of destroying Japanese shipping during World War II.[3] In terms of damage per unit of cost, it surpassed strategic bombing and the United States submarine campaign.[3]
      Eventually most of the major ports and straits of Japan were repeatedly mined, severely disrupting Japanese logistics and troop movements for the remainder of the war with 35 of 47 essential convoy routes having to be abandoned.

      Also (RAND?) Lessons From an Aerial Mining Campaign (Operation “Starvation”) (April 1974, Frederick M. Sallagar)

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Anoniminous: There’s not much of a puzzle. Milosevic was interviewed in captivity, and gave very lucid, rational accounts of his decision process. You may read about them in this RAND report from 2001.

      Serbia surrendered because the bombing:

      While several interrelated factors, including Moscow’s eventual endorsement of NATO’s terms, helped shape Milosevic’s decision to yield, it was the cumulative effect of NATO air power that proved most decisive.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Chetan Murthy

      @Alison Rose:

      If, God forbid and I hate to even type it, the worst comes to pass at Zaporizhzhia, what would be the response from the international community, if any?

      My memory is that if Russia precipitates a nuclear accident, NATO will view it as an attack on NATO (since the fallout would spread) and take appropriate action.  My memory is that NATO and the US have made this clear to Russia.  So in addition to the obvious international rescue response, I’m guessing that NATO would, y’know, destroy Russia’s army in Ukraine.  If for no other reason than to get them out the damn way.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Alison Rose

      @Chetan Murthy: See, that’s what I was wondering, because — with the caveat that I don’t know anything about how far this kind of thing could spread — for example, Romania is in NATO and is not terribly far from the plant. But I suppose there would also be a lot of he said/he said about whose fault it was, because putin is incapable of being anything but a maniacal sleazeball.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      Chetan Murthy

      @Alison Rose: I think NATO has made it clear that he-said/she-said won’t be accepted, b/c Russia controls the plant.  If they want to absolve themselves of responsibility, they can leave the area of the plant and not attack it.  At least, that’s what I remember reading.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Carlo Graziani

      I posted here a couple of updates ago this WarZone story concerning the Vilkha-M guided rocket—110km range (37% more than HIMARS/M-31), air-launched, 485lb payload (2.4 times HIMARS/M31), actually in service (unlike the vaporware munitions that have  sometimes been attributed to the Ukrainian armaments industry), has “great” (but undisclosed) accuracy, and the kicker: it’s Ukraine-produced, so not subject to US use restrictions.

      Since it is air-launched, and actually slung from Mig-29s, the range is, in fact, the range from release point. So depending on the ability of the UAF to develop good intrusion tactics (want to bet?) these are much deeper threats than anything else that Ukraine has, or is likely to receive soon. They are probably not abundant, though, and so need to be reserved for high-value targets, and opportunities.

      Oh, and Belgorod is 45 miles from Kharkiv, and is the site of the main Russian logistic depot serving the Eastern theatre. Kerch is more than 150 miles from the front lines, but a good intrusion plan should bring a few attacking planes in range.

      So that’s the setup. Here’s the scenario: having rehearsed tactics and accumulated a sufficient stock, the Ukrainian government waits for a significant Russian missile strike on civilian infrastructure. Within 24 hours it launches a strike that puts several 485lb HE bombs on the Kerch bridge, putting it permanently out of commission, and announcing that this is retaliation for the Russian strike. Naturally the Russians are inflamed, and launch a second strike at civilians. Within 24 hours, the Belgorod depot is destroyed in a rain of HE bombs. The Ukrainian government points out that unlike the Russians, it strikes strictly military targets, and implies that it’s ready for another round, thankyouverymuch.

      Now the Russians have a real problem. All their logistics are fucked, except the thinnest straw from Rostov-on-Don to Donetsk, and maybe Luhansk. They could escalate, but their nuclear threat is clearly countered and deterred by NATO, and in any event they could certainly not prevent a third strike on Rostov, which would end all supply into Ukraine at a time when the UA counteroffensive is expected to drop on them like the Hammer of God. How do they lie their way out of this one?

      They bluster like maniacs, but I think they start looking for the exits.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Alison Rose: The Chernobyl radioactive plume showed up in Sweden with a day or two. If anything comparable happened, NATO would certainly intervene in the war, as Chethan said.

      It’s not super-likely, since reactor cores are some of the most hard-contained structures on Earth, and it would require a deliberate, concentrated bombardment to cause a Chernobyl-grade release—at Chernobyl itself, this feat was accomplished by idiot Soviet nuclear engineers, working on the inside.

      But the small risk keeps everyone awake at night.

      Reply
    28. 28.

      Ruckus

      @Carlo Graziani:

      Likely more a case of stupid shit vlad can not even think of stopping til the last man is standing and his entire military is wiped out, down to the last dishwasher and all that is left is to throw damp sponges.

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Another Scott

      @Carlo Graziani: Yup.

      The FAS has collections of Congressional Research Service reports, like this one (36 page .pdf) from February 13:

      In addition, Russia has fielded Kinzhal, a maneuvering air-launched ballistic missile modified from the Iskander missile. Russia reportedly fired Kinzhal from a MiG-31 interceptor aircraft in Ukraine101 and additionally plans to deploy the missile on the Su-34 long-range strike fighter102 and the Tu-22M3 strategic bomber, although the slower-moving bomber may face challenges in “accelerating the weapon into the correct launch parameters.” 103 Russian media has reported Kinzhal’s top speed as Mach 10, with a range of up to 1,200 miles when launched from the MiG-31. The Kinzhal is reportedly capable of maneuverable flight, as well as of striking both ground and naval targets, and could eventually be fitted with a nuclear warhead. However, such claims regarding Kinzhal’s performance characteristics have not been publicly verified by U.S. intelligence agencies, and have been met with skepticism by a number of analysts.104

      It sounds kinda like those weird V8-engined motorcycles in Florida – lots of power! But unlikely to live up to the hype.

      I’m reminded that the US was doing hypersonics research in the 1950s-1960s with the X-15. We know a lot about this stuff. Arms control agreements meant that we didn’t have to think about deploying ever faster weapons; maybe VVP is going to make us crank up the Military-Industrial-(Congressional) Complex again. :-/

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Kent

      @Anoniminous:@Buskertype: ​

      Japan was being strangled by a US blockade, the people were starving, the 1945 harvest was disastrous, and the Japanese were already looking for a way out short of Unconditional Surrender.
      How much did the atomic bombs contribute to the Emperor’s decision to surrender?
      Have to ask someone more knowledgeable than I

      Plus the Russians had just entered the war against Japan weeks earlier.  Who do you want to surrender to, Russians or Americans?

      Reply
    31. 31.

      Anoniminous

      @Carlo Graziani:

      From your source:

      HE REALIZED THAT HIS HOPED-FOR LEVERAGE ON
      NATO HAD EVAPORATED ………………….. 37

      BOMBING PRODUCED A POPULAR CLIMATE
      CONDUCIVE TO CONCESSIONS ………………. 49

      DAMAGE TO “DUAL-USE” INFRASTRUCTURE
      GENERATED GROWING PRESSURE ……………. 65

      Chapter Seven
      DAMAGE TO MILITARY FORCES AND KLA
      “RESURGENCE” GENERATED LITTLE PRESSURE …… 77

      HE EXPECTED UNCONSTRAINED BOMBING IF NATO’S
      TERMS WERE REJECTED …………………… 91

      HE PROBABLY ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THREAT OF
      FUTURE INVASION ………………………. 109

      Chapter Ten
      HE BELIEVED NATO’S TERMS PROVIDED HIM WITH
      SOME POLITICAL COVER …………………… 115

      Now look up the meaning of the word “solely”

      Reply
    32. 32.

      Origuy

      Remember that Zaporizhzhia isn’t far from the apple of Putin’s eye, Crimea, and his palace on the Black Sea. They might not be nice places to be if there’s a nuclear incident.

      Reply
    34. 34.

      Prescott Cactus

      @Carlo Graziani: #26

      USA Reactor cores are hardened to withstand a large commercial airliner crash. Reactor building breech / serious damage would indeed create serious environmental consequences.

      There are other areas of a plant that if damaged would destablise / damage the reactor and would create grim results for the public at large.

      The Chernobyl and Three Mile Island accident were not caused by exterior damage to the reactor  building. Both caused damage to the reactor itself by stupidity (Chernobyl) and at TMI, equipment failures, then stupidity.

      It’s not just the reactor building.

      THANKS for all you do Adam !

      Reply
    35. 35.

      Chetan Murthy

      @Chetan Murthy: Some highlights

      1. artillery, artillery, artillery.  UA is suffering real shell hunger.
      2. Also even mortar shell hunger.  Ugh.
      3. the training rates in the West are a trickle, and the people coming thru them aren’t suddenly much better.
      4. Many/most of the well-trained/experienced troops have been killed or otherwise out of combat.  This is now a war of the mobilized on *both* sides.
      5. Getting the troops trained as much as possible is a big challenge
      6. HIMARS didn’t show much; it was all about arty
      7. And Kofman was pretty conclusive that the key enabling technology for this war has been Starlink.  That hasn’t changed.
      8. Morale is *high*.  That’s good.
      9. They really need APCs and IFVs for their mechanized infantry.  They’ve grown their army massively; now they need to be able to *move*.  Need a shit-ton of IFVs.

      I’m sure there was lots of other stuff.  But overall, I came away a bit dismayed.  This is going to be a far tougher fight that the propaganda makes out, for our friend in Ukraine.  We gotta get a handle on the arty ammo situation.  Ditto mortar shells.  Jesus.

      He was really plain: something like “you can have all the tanks you want, but if you don’t have arty, then they’re not going anywhere.  UA’s army is an artillery army.  Period.”

      Reply
    36. 36.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Anonymous At Work: The Kinzhal is an air launched ballistic missile (hypersonic on reentry almost by definition), with maneuverable reentry, the air launched version the Iskander short range ballistic missile. Its targets should be theater command posts, air bases, large ammo depots, munitions factories, logistics nodes, etc. Morality of targeting civilian infrastructure aside, it is the correct weapon to use against civilian power infrastructure. Using it on apartment blocks is both immoral and an utter waste of scarce resources. The Russians claim ~ 1 m CEP, but I find it highly doubtful. On inertial navigation only, may be it can achieve CEP of ~ 100 – 300 m. Using civilian GPS, CEP of < 50 m. Assuming the GLONASS is as accurate as the military grade GPS (highly questionable), may be it can achieve a CEP of ~ 5 – 15 m. The claimed Mach 10 – 12 terminal speed is also highly doubtful, given that the Iskander SRBM it is based off of only has range of 500 kms & terminal velocity of Mach 6 – 7. (For ballistic missiles, terminal velocities scale w/ range, w/ inter-continental ballistic missiles having the highest terminal velocity.)

      The hypersonic cruise missile in Russian service (or close to it) is the Tsirkon. Again, the claimed Mach 9 speed & ~ 1500 km range need to be taken w/ a huge grain of salt.

      Reply
    37. 37.

      Aziz, light!

      @Chetan Murthy: Apropos not of what Ukraine needs now or soon, the DOD has informed us that American production of 155 mm shells will reach 90,000 a month only two years from now.

      Reply
    38. 38.

      Chetan Murthy

      @Aziz, light!: Kofman touched on that, too.  That all these countries that are contemplating starting how to increase arty shell production are thinking “it won’t make a difference until 2025 — and the war will be over by then, riiiight?”  And so they have a strong incentive to *not* increase production -now-.  Ugh.

      And yeah, meanwhile Ukraine hungers for shells.

      Reply
    40. 40.

      Marc

      @YY_Sima Qian: Using civilian GPS, CEP of < 50 m.

      Civilian GPS has not been subject to degraded accuracy since the 90s.  CEPs in the 3 to 5m range are routinely demonstrated  by  consumer receivers.  With a dual frequency receiver (there is now a second civilian frequency) 1m CEPs are possible.  Consumer receivers are not usable at ballistic missile speeds. They are likely using custom hardware with more sophisticated sensor fusion of multiple GNSS signals (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, etc.) plus IMU, airspeed, and altimeter. Whether the missile system is actually capable of achieving that level of accuracy is another question entirely.

      The claimed Mach 10 – 12 terminal speed is also highly doubtful, given that the Iskander SRBM it is based off of only has range of 500 kms & terminal velocity of Mach 6 – 7.

      A Kinzhal is apparently launched by a MiG-31 in a Mach 2+ zoom climb from upwards of 60 000 feet.  That is similar to adding an extra stage to the Iskander, increased range and terminal velocity would be the expected result.

      Reply
    41. 41.

      frosty

      @Anoniminous: This is the anniversary of the firebombing of Tokyo that killed as many civilians as Hiroshima. The rivers boiled as people sought any shelter they could find.

      Bombing civilians in England and Germany (to some extent) made them more resistant to surrender. I think your case of Japan may be the only one that had the opposite effect.

      Reply
    42. 42.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Marc: There is the precision of the signal, & then there is the accuracy of the missile, & there are many more factors that drive the latter beyond the precision of the signal.

      The Kinzhal is also missing the booster stage of the Iskander, the launching aircraft is taking the place of the booster. That typically adds to the speed & effective range, but a doubling of either.

      Reply
    43. 43.

      kalakal

      @Anoniminous: You could make a case for the Netherlands in WW2. They surrendered after Rotterdam was bombed and the Nazis ultimatum was surrender or Utrecht is next

      Reply
    44. 44.

      Marc

      @frosty: This is the anniversary of the firebombing of Tokyo that killed as many civilians as Hiroshima.

      Which should also remind us that the destruction caused by this and other firebombing raids on Japan was the result of research conducted by a number of US universities.  Many model and full-size Japanese homes were constructed and burned in a an effort to come up with the most effective incendiary devices.  Regular bombs with time delayed fuses were also dropped to eliminate firefighters and rescue workers.  It’s not just Russians.  All war sucks.

      Reply
    45. 45.

      Geminid

      The Kinzhal clearly is a very dangerous weapon. I’m not sure Russia has enough of them to make much of a difference in a strategic sense.  One story I read said they had less than one hundred.

      Russia recently announced an increase in production (according to a Jerusalem Post article 3 weeks ago), but that probably won’t be enough to make a difference in this war beyond more inflicting more suffering amongst civilians.

      I read that the Patriot anti-air missile might be able to intercept the Kinzhal. That system will be operational in Ukraine soon, so I guess we’ll see if it can.

      Reply
    46. 46.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Geminid: Not that much more dangerous than the Islanders, which Russia seems to have been running short months ago. Ballistic missiles capable of maneuverable reentry are challenging for Patriot PAC3s to intercept. Need something like the THAAD.

      Reply
    47. 47.

      Geminid

      @YY_Sima Qian: Yes, this would be a challenge for the Patriot missiles.

      Mark Hertling said the Patriot system is best suited for point defense, so they’ll likely be deployed near Kyiv, maybe Odesa too if there are enough.

      Reply
    48. 48.

      Geminid

      @Geminid: Speaking of Odesa, the current extension of the Black Sea grain export deal expires March 18. I haven’t seen much about it, although I believe it was discussed by President Zelenskyy and UN Chaiman Gutierrez recently.

      I expect that Turkiye will make sure the deal continues. It’s a tangible expression of that country’s power in the region, and Erdogan needs this if he is to win reelection this May. Turkiye’s economy is still doing poorly, and I think Erdogan has to appeal to Turkish nationalism.

      Reply

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