Gonna be a short(er) update tonight. I’m feeling much better – not so run down – but it’s another busy week.
I want to start tonight and, frankly, focus on this reporting from Ellen Barry and Antoine d’Agata of The New York Times on Ukrainian Soldiers and Post Traumatic Stress. I’m going to put a few excerpts above the jump, but I highly recommend you click across and read the whole thing.
The soldier cannot speak about what happened to him.
It’s been a month since “the tragedy,” as he calls it. When the subject arises, he freezes and looks at the floor. He gulps for air. He cannot say it.
His doctor, a motherly woman, speaks for him: There were four of them. They were stationed near the front line, in eastern Ukraine, and on that night they shot a Russian drone from the sky. A small victory. Then its wreckage hurtled down, hunks of ragged metal slicing into the men below. He was the only one left standing.
In the numb hours that followed, someone came to collect the others — one dead, two wounded — and he was left to hold the position alone through that freezing night and into the next day.
The soldier cannot speak about what happened to him.
It’s been a month since “the tragedy,” as he calls it. When the subject arises, he freezes and looks at the floor. He gulps for air. He cannot say it.
His doctor, a motherly woman, speaks for him: There were four of them. They were stationed near the front line, in eastern Ukraine, and on that night they shot a Russian drone from the sky. A small victory. Then its wreckage hurtled down, hunks of ragged metal slicing into the men below. He was the only one left standing.
In the numb hours that followed, someone came to collect the others — one dead, two wounded — and he was left to hold the position alone through that freezing night and into the next day.
Each war teaches us something new about trauma. In World War I, hospitals overflowed with soldiers who screamed or froze or wept, described in medical texts as “moral invalids.” By the end of World War II, a more sympathetic view had emerged, that even the hardiest soldier would suffer a psychological collapse after sufficient time in combat — somewhere, two experts from the surgeon general’s office concluded, between 200 and 240 days on average.
Russia’s war in Ukraine stands out among modern wars for its extreme violence. Its front lines are close together and barraged with heavy artillery, and rotations from the front line are infrequent. Ukraine’s forces are largely made up of men and women who, until a year ago, had no experience of combat.
“We are looking at a war that is basically a repetition of the First World War,” says Robert van Voren, who heads the Federation Global Initiative on Psychiatry, which provides mental-health support in Ukraine. “People just cannot fight anymore for psychological reasons. People are at the front line too long, and at a certain point, they crack. That’s the reality we have to deal with.”
I’ll put some of the quotes specifically from the patients and their care givers after the jump. But before we get there I think it is important to remember that war is corrosive. Even a just one in defense of one’s home, family, and fellow citizens against a brutal, genocidal re-invasion. We often celebrate the resilience and fortitude and determination and ingenuity of Ukrainians in general and the Ukrainian military in specific here in these updates. But all of that resilience, fortitude, determination, and ingenuity comes at an exceedingly high price. And that price is not just being paid now, it will be paid well into the future. We need to realize and not forget that the price being paid and the debt being accumulated to be paid later is higher than it would be because of the decisions of our, our allies, and our partners senior leaders in how to respond to the re-invasion. Our, our allies’, and our partners’ strategic choices are being paid for with Ukrainian blood and treasure.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s update from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Today, Ukraine began to mark the first anniversary of the first victorious battles of the full-scale war that made the occupier flee – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
21 March 2023 – 22:29
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
I have just spoken with the President of Chile, it was a good conversation. We updated our countries’ vision of the current situation in international relations.
I briefed Mr. President on how Russia continues its aggression. I also informed him about how we can counteract Russian terror and do so successfully.
And the best proof of this is our experience. The experience Ukrainians have already gained in expelling the Russian occupiers. Thanks to the bravery of our warriors, thanks to the support of our partners who will never accept Russia’s desire to break the international legal order.
Today, Ukraine began to mark the first anniversary of the first victorious battles of the full-scale war – the battles in the north of our country that made the occupier flee.
It was on March 21 last year that the Battle of Moshchun, a small village in the Kyiv region, ended, and it was the first major step of our country towards victory in this war.
There were other such steps… The Battle of Hostomel. The Battle of Irpin. Fighting in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. The Battle of Zmiinyi. A fierce confrontation in the south of Ukraine and our unique defense operation that returned freedom to the Kharkiv region.
We will achieve the same result in other active actions. In the heroic battle for Donbas, which will inevitably be dominated by the Ukrainian flag. In the subsequent confrontation in the south, which will restore normal Ukrainian life in the Azov region. In the return of our Crimea, from where the migration of the most far-sighted rats of the terrorist state has already begun.
Our confidence in Ukraine’s victory, our vision of a free future for our country, Ukrainian heroism that has amazed the world – all of this was born there… In the heroic cities of the Ukrainian north, Ukrainian east, and Ukrainian south.
In the cities of heroes whose character did not submit to the occupier for a second, even when the occupier came to their homes.
Together, we are returning Ukraine to Ukraine. Together, we are protecting our future, our dignity, our freedom, and our history.
Today, I honored the heroes of the Battle for Moshchun – for Kyiv – in the very place where a memorial will be built in honor of our warriors and ordinary Moshchun residents whose lives were taken by this brutal war.
Today, the guest of our country, Prime Minister of Japan Kishida, began his visit to Ukraine with a visit to Bucha. To honor the memory of all those whose lives were taken by Russian terror. Mr. Kishida visited the Wall of Remembrance in Kyiv, near St. Michael’s Cathedral, and honored our warriors who died for Ukraine.
And it is very important when global leaders show courage by visiting Ukraine despite all the risks and show respect – respect for our people who are fighting not only for their country, for Ukrainian independence, but also for the preservation and functioning of civilized rules and civilized life in the world.
Our talks with Mr. Kishida were quite productive. It should be borne in mind that this visit is taking place at a time of Japan’s G7 Presidency – the Group of Seven democratic states. So, given Japan’s strength, its leadership in Asia in defending peace and the rules-based international order, and Japan’s responsibility as the G7 chair, our talks today can truly yield a global result.
We discussed security, political, sanctions, economic and humanitarian issues. Japan is ready to join our reconstruction, to be a leader in these economic and infrastructural processes.
But today I also heard Japan’s very concrete willingness to work together with us to mobilize the world even more actively for international order, for the protection against aggression, against Russian terror.
Thank you, Japan!
Thank you to everyone who helps us defend freedom and liberate our land!
Glory to each and every one who is now in combat! Glory to each and every one who is fighting for Ukraine near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar and all other hot spots of the frontline!
Today, I held a meeting of the Staff. The main topic is the frontline. Our warriors, our positions, our reinforcement. The commanders, the Commander-in-Chief and the intelligence delivered reports. One of the issues that always receives maximum attention is the supply of ammunition and support from our partners. We expect an increase in supplies of exactly what we need right now.
And one more thing. Today I would like to especially mention the 10th separate mountain assault brigade, the 54th and 92nd separate mechanized brigades, which are fighting in Donbas. Steadfastly, courageously and effectively. Well done, guys!
Glory to our heroes!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s is today’s operational update from the Ukrainian MOD machine translated from their Telegram channel:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Avdiivka and Bakhmut:
ANDIIVKA AXIS /2245 UTC 21 MAR/ UKR forces report contact north of Avdiivka. Krasbohorivka & Novobakhmutivka; plotted contacts indicate that UKR forces have advanced in these locations. UKR reports Russian Air-Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCM) strikes in the Avdiivka area. pic.twitter.com/6poeJ016rI
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 21, 2023
AVDIIVKA AXIS /1500 UTC 21 MAR/ RU forces unsuccessfully tried to advance in the vicinities of Berdchi, Avdiivka, Severna, Pervomaiske & Novomykhailivka. RU continues widespread shelling in the Avdiivka Area of Operations (AO). pic.twitter.com/GJ1kEFyhRx
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 21, 2023
BAKHMUT CITY: UKR reports heavy fighting in northern urban area. The 1800 (Kyiv) briefing of the UKR Gen’l Staff noted heavy RU losses and ‘diminished combat potential’ of RU units. UKR Lines of Communication and Supply (LOCS) into Bakhmut remain secure. pic.twitter.com/Fo2yygYso7
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 21, 2023
BAKHMUT AXIS /1430 UTC 21 MAR/ RU shelling accompanied failed attacks at Hyrhorivka, Bohdanivka & Ivanivske. A Russian VDV assault on Predtechyne was broken up by UKR forces and artillery. Wagner attacks along the North [M-03] axis thwarted. pic.twitter.com/HhG596Mn7T
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 21, 2023
Bakhmut:
From Ukrainska Pravda:
Yevgeny Prigozhin, financier of the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC), has told Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu about the plans of the Ukrainian army to launch a large-scale offensive near Bakhmut and asked for help.
Source: Prigozhin’s letter to Shoigu dated 20 March, posted on his Telegram channel
Quote: “According to the available information, the enemy plans to launch a large-scale offensive at the end of March or beginning of April and carry out flanking cutting attacks, with the aim of cutting off the units of the Wagner Group PMC from the main forces of the Russian Armed Forces.
I ask you to take all necessary measures to prevent the Wagner PMC from being cut off from the main forces of the Russian Armed Forces, which will have negative effects for the ‘special military operation’ [the official term used by Russians to describe the ongoing war with Ukraine – ed.].”
Details: Prigozhin also wrote that the secret appendix to the letter contained details of the “enemy’s plan” and “proposal for countermeasures”.
Putin’s chef [Prigozhin – ed.] also boasted that Wagner’s units allegedly control about 70% of Bakhmut and “continue the offensive for its complete liberation”.
Background: Hanna Maliar, Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defence, has said that the defence forces of Ukraine are destroying the most professional Russian units in the city of Bakhmut, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are making progress in certain areas, but Russians’ advance also took place.
Kyiv:
This is what #Kyiv, the capital of #Ukraine, looks like now. Due to #Russian missile strikes, there was a shortage of electricity for 4 months. There are no more power outages in the capital city and the region, and enough energy is available.
Video: Eugene Zhulai pic.twitter.com/5e3DoHKBOQ
— zaborona_media (@zaborona_media) March 21, 2023
And since the seat of the Ukrainian government is in Kyiv, I guess we’ll put this here too:
Twitter knows @FedorovMykhailo well. He is a rock star of the Ukrainian cabinet! Starlinks for UA military, the electronic govt services portal Diia, now adopted by other countries, the Army of Drones, United24 are just some of his projects. The re-appointment is technical 2/
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 21, 2023
@AKamyshin is another star who you know very well. Until recently he was the CEO of the renown Ukrainian Railroads. He made the trains run on time during the war, helped evacuate millions of people, deliver supplies to front line regions, and kept economy going. A hero! 4/
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 21, 2023
Oksen Lysovyy is our new minister of education and science. He is back from the frontlines where he served in the military. Oksen is a self made person, who was the leader of the Small Academy of Science of Ukraine, a very exciting & state of the art edu project for children 6/6
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 21, 2023
Odesa:
This evening Russia attacked Odesa with four Kh-59 missiles. Air defense forces managed to shoot down two missiles, two others hit the city. pic.twitter.com/j7qGLPiGMA
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 21, 2023
The Ukrainian Air Force was on air defense:
I’m going to finish off with a bit more from the NY Times reporting on Ukrainian Soldiers with post traumatic stress:
Yulia, 47
Occupation: Soldier; combat medic, independent forensic expert
“I’m a combat medic. I can’t stand the things I’ve seen. In Irpin, there was a basement where people gathered. They didn’t leave the basement for three or four days. But the children couldn’t stand the pressure. I’m a grandmother, so it’s very hard for me to see that kids can’t run around, walk, cry, talk. Like everyone else, I ask myself, “What are the people guilty of? Why do they have to live like this?” When you don’t find many answers, the questions accumulate. When you start seeing answers, and the answers don’t correspond to reality, you lose your marbles.”
There is much, much, much more at the link. Again, I highly recommend that you click across and read it.
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Alison Rose
I read the NYT piece earlier and it was heart-wrenching, but I think it is incumbent upon all of us who are able to do so safely mentally to read it. The term martyr is mostly used today in a different sense, but I think of it now in terms of its root, which meant “witness”. Listening to the truth of the horrors Ukrainians have been subjected to is one small way those of us in safety can fulfill that role. And we should.
I wish there was some way to break through the isolationist, putin-loving, indifferent cruelty of some of our elected officials, to get them to understand this. I honestly think the only thing that might work is making them all spend a few days on the front lines. And even then, I worry they are so heartless their only concern would remain their own asses.
Thank you as always, Adam. Your work is invaluable.
trollhattan
Some day, Nadiya Medvedska, some fine day.
NutmegAgain
Adam, you said, “that price is not just being paid now, it will be paid well into the future.” It’s also true that, to grab a useful cliche, the effects of trauma radiate outward through family and others. My grandparents were all WWI generation, and the European ones talked about life in a very clear before, and after. The world was safe, and then everything changed. Whole groups of friends died. The social fabric had been ripped apart in a way that would not, could not be repaired. I have no doubt that Ukrainian society will be dealing with similar issues for a couple of generations to come. So much loss and heartache.
Another Scott
Good reminders, Adam. Too many good people are being killed and damaged for VVP’s cult.
:-(
I came across this RFERL.org piece today:
Just imagine, getting shelled by your own side…
Here’s to a quick and successful Ukrainian spring offensive!
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@NutmegAgain: Ukraine has been suffering at the hands of russia for centuries. There is a whole body of poetry, literature and music around that. Not to minimize what is happening this year and last, but it didn’t come out of nowhere and it is far from unprecedented. Russia has been — sometimes more, sometimes less actively — attempting to erase Ukrainian nationhood, culture and language for a very, very long time.
Jay
Perun has a new you tube out on “Russia’s Winter Offensive”, for those interested.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPhycuLAtaw
Dan B
I had an employee, a big, broad shouldered, guy. One morning I got a call from him. He was in jail for drunken driving and didn’t have anyone yo bail him out so I did. He’d been in elder Bush’s war in Iraq. He didn’t work very long for me and it wasn’t until years later that he showed all the signs of PTSD. He needed help, more than being bailed out, and I didn’t understand. The trauma radiates outward. I feel it to this day.
Gin & Tonic
Here’s a thought-provoking thread on Xi’s visit to russia:
jackmac
Adam, thank you for sharing the NYT’s reporting on the immense human toll of this war as well as your own daily efforts on these pages.
Anoniminous
@Gin & Tonic:
Only the beginning of the long term costs of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Nelle
@NutmegAgain: The ripples continue outward. As I’ve said, my father’s village, now occupied by Russians (just southeast of Tokmak), was, during his childhood, occupied by the Germans in WWI and where some of the fighting between the Whites and the Reds lasted the longest during the Civil War. Occasionally, both sides would retreat and Nestor Mahkno and his gangs would roam in between, taking revenge on Mennonite colonists (a friend had over 30 members of her family killed in one night). My grandfather (writer and journalist) escaped and in revenge, my uncle was taken prisoner and Russian soldiers were quartered in their house. My father would have been nine or ten at the time. There was one, sickly brother of about 14. Then there was my grandmother and four aunts.
My father wouldn’t give any details about what happened with the soldiers there except to say, “I’ve seen what war does to women and children.” In the daytime, he was resolutely cheerful, kind, and generous. At night, he would scream in terrifying nightmares. I would hear the screaming, without syllables or words, then my mother waking him and comforting him, saying, “John, John, it is over, it was a nightmare, you are safe.” This was a very familiar sound through my whole childhood.
Bucha brought the sounds of my father, voice choked on strangled screams, back to me.
Fake Irishman
@Dan B:
The good news about this is that the VA has poured a lot of resources and time into this over the last 20 years. We have a of knowledge and considerable numbers of practical tools to effectively treat PTSD and a variety of other mental illness linked to service-related issues. Tucking a $50 million rider into a spending bill to help Ukraine get a mental health treatment system in place for its Vets with some assistance from American VA clinicians might go a long way toward winning the peace.
NutmegAgain
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you. I always appreciate your comments, painfully informed as they are.
Bill Arnold
Just for the record. Authors appear to be mostly or all economists. They are way more polite than Sachs deserves, IMO.
Open letter to Jeffrey Sachs on his position regarding Russian war on Ukraine (20 March 2023, Group of authors)
It ends thus:
NutmegAgain
@Nelle: Ach. So close to home. This and all these stories make me think about what really constitutes a “bad day”.
Carlo Graziani
Here’s the gift link to the NYT article.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@NutmegAgain: Seconded: Thank you G & T.
Manyakitty
@Carlo Graziani: thanks
Another Scott
@Jay: Thanks for the pointer. I found that informative.
Cheers,
Scott.
CCL
Posting before reading…Remind me again who created the art work at the top of the post?
Thanks as always, Adam, for these posts. Now going back up to read tonight’s.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
thank you.
patrick II
@Gin & Tonic:
Read the link. How ironic. This all started with Putin’s dreams of empire — and now it turns out it’s not his empire that’s being restored — but China’s. Giving up partial control of the far eastern part of Russia to China is China’s first hopeful step toward’s regaining sovereignty over lands China considers “lost” to them in the eighteenth century.
If I had a big enough megaphone into Russia, Russian people would be learning about the control they have ceded.
Gin & Tonic
@patrick II: I’ll be interested in YY’s take on it, but if there is one, I’ll have to read it with my coffee in the morning.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: The asymmetry in power dynamics & optionality between Russia & China is becoming increasingly stark. That has been the long term trend, but the recent rapid acceleration of that trend is entirely Putin’s doing in launching his invasion of Ukraine.
Simply put, Russia does not have any other options. China is an increasingly large manufacturing of commodity semiconductors, as well as more advanced ones of mature nodes, India/Türkiye/Gulf States are not. Chinese companies are leading players in 5G telecom, automotives, consumer electronics, consumer items, heavy/industrial machinery, Indian/Turkish/Gulf State companies are not. (In fact, it is not even Huawei or ZTE building Russia’s 5G networks, but 2nd/3rd tier no name Chinese players, & the result is more like 4G+ but still better than nothing.) Russian can build a pipeline to ship natural gas from the Yamal Peninsula to China, it is not possible to build one to India. No one wants to settle their trade w/ Russia in rubles, which has huge associated uncertainties. However, India will insist on settling in rupees & Türkiye in liras.
I have posted articles by Evan Feigenbaum & Alexander Gabuev yesterday, here are a couple of FT articles that dives into the dynamic:
Sounds like China is still trying to drive a harder bargain on the price of natural gas piped from Yamal Peninsula.
YY_Sima Qian
@patrick II: The populations in the 3 Northeastern Chinese Provinces (a.k.a, Manchuria) – Liaoning, Jilin & Heilongjiang, have been steadily declining, suffering from some of the lowest birth rates in the country (which is already low overall) as well as flight of the younger generation to the southern regions. It has been known as China’s “Rust Belt” since the massive wave of privatization of state owned enterprises in the late 90s. I don’t think many people will be enticed to rush to the even harsher climes (economically, socially & weather-wise) of Far Eastern Siberia, which makes cities in Manchuria appear to be boomtowns.
I could see China cajoling Russia to open a duty/customs-free land corridor to Vladivostok, as well as privileged access to the port there (not even necessarily naval access), so that the Northeastern Chinese provinces can have better transportation for imports/exports & boost the region’s global competitiveness.
Gvg
Russia would have been far better off it it’s dreams of empire had been in the head of someone who understood a little about manufacturing or industry. Rooting out corruption and fixing some things would have given him more power than conquest but he was trained not to know that. Henry Ford was a racist but an idealized Ford was a better hero for us than Ivan or Stalin is for Russia. Their screwed. China is doing better by choices. I still think they are making mistakes too but…look at us. Still Russia is really messed up. And an example why even important crooks need to go to jail.
Ruckus
@NutmegAgain:
Most of the family males in my parents generation served in WWII and none of them would talk about it. My father wouldn’t talk about his time even after I joined. I was just thinking about it again as I was at the VA again today, talking to my doc and having and scheduling more tests. I didn’t serve in a combat zone but I spent enough time watching a Russian destroyer pace us when we sailed in the far North Atlantic. About a quarter mile back and about 150 yards off our stern. We turned, they turned. We sped up or slow down, they matched our speed. Days on end. I also spent 2 months in a navy hospital (remember the Marines are part of the Navy) and saw both the physical and mental side of warfare. It was not at all pretty in any way shape or form. And there were guys in there that I’m pretty sure took years to get anywhere approaching normal – if they ever actually did. As I said I was at the VA today and it always reminds me that no matter what, I made a good decision to join, because they announced the draft lottery 2 days after I enlisted, and when they held that lottery, my birthday was drawn #18. I’d already passed my draft “physical” and had a 33-50% chance of being drafted into the Marines. My chances of seeing 70+ yrs old like I am now would have been dramatically worse. And I see people every time I go to the VA who weren’t anywhere near as lucky as I was. And those are the ones that lived. The 20 yrs of war we ended not long ago have a whole new crop of men missing limbs, and having psychological issues that you can’t imagine. A hell I can’t imagine and I was a mental health counselor for 4 yrs and have heard way too many stories at the VA that sometimes I still have a hard time sleeping. And I never saw a second of combat. I’ve been exposed to those that have and I don’t see how anyone does it.
Jay
@Ruckus:
thank you for your testimony. Always.
patrick II
@YY_Sima Qian:
This is from Sam Greene’s twitter feed linked to by Gin &Tonic:
Of course, the devil’s in the details, but I would not be granting the reorientation of Alaska’s agricultural trade toward China as official policy, nor would I grant China a strategic role in developing Alaska. China doesn’t have to move people there to create a colony they only need to have increased control and economic dominance, especially given Russia’s subservient position.
Carlo Graziani
@Ruckus: My Dad was a teenager in Florence in 1944, came of age to by drafted by the Italian Army (taken over by the Germans by then), at which point he promptly hid out in the woods, provisioned by his sister at huge risk to herself. When the Allies came up from Rome, he joined up with the British 8th Army.
Thinking about his war stories now, years after he passed away, gives me the oddest feeling. He made it sound like an adventure, full of humorous anecdotes. He learned to drive by going to a US Army truck park, getting in the next available truck, driving it around Italian mountain roads until he crashed it, then walking back and getting another truck. His descriptions of Allied rations—their plentiful-yet-unappetizing-yet-irresistibly-hunger-satiating character—were hilarious.
And yet, now that I’m not a kid anymore, and have educated myself about war, I am utterly certain that he protected us from knowledge of other awful things that he experienced, and from the loss and grief that were dull universals to that front. I know that he was in a combat unit. He never spoke of actions, though. Who could he have spoken to? How could he have explained any of it to his family?
I wish that I could ask him now what happened, and just listen.
YY_Sima Qian
@patrick II: Agriculture is severely underdeveloped in Far Eastern Siberia, there is a lot of potential there, & China is the massive market next door. The orientation would make sense even if Russia is not under sanctions & isolated from the West, & there is no Sino-Russian entente.
At the end of the day, though, agricultural products are relatively fungible commodities. The reorientation might mean actually building the physical infrastructure & easing of the regulatory hurdles to make exporting agricultural products to China easier. Foodstuff grown there could just as easily be exported to Japan or South Korea (though both of the agricultural product markets in these two countries are pretty closed). The more sensitive question is if Russia will invite Chinese agribusinesses in to develop agriculture in Far Eastern Siberia.
NutmegAgain
@Ruckus: So thoughtful, thank you. My dad (and uncles but everyone was spread out by the time I existed, so no stories) signed up & served in WWII right away. In the Pacific Theater–under the infamous Curtis LeMay. He wasn’t in actual combat, that I am aware of. But he bounced all over Asia & SE Asia; he must have had some close calls and things that made him swallow hard and say a prayer. Besides snakes under his tent in Burma (as it was). And the plane crash in the foothills of the Himalayas. But yeah–that whole generation who came back and said not much. I often watched the Patriot’s Day parades* (which is a required civic ritual where I come from — the land of Paul Revere & John Adams! ) but by the last time I remember going, the last handful of WWII vets were riding, not walking.
*And truly, after working for many years at Am Rev War sites and really paying attention, I came to realize how face to face, how literally bloody, how terrified the civilians were, and how many atrocities we’ve never heard of, all of it, comprised the revolution.
Ruckus
@Carlo Graziani:
I sat in a group once, with a man who had been in Vietnam and was flown to Guam, which was stopped at to refuel planes and give some time to come down from the terror of combat. He grabbed an M16 and a box of ammo and went up into the hills and would shoot at anyone that he saw. He thought he was still in Vietnam and everyone was trying to kill him. And this was in a locked ward that one had to go through 2 locked doors to get in or out of. They had him so drugged up so that he wouldn’t hurt anyone, including himself that he’d wake up every so often and babble incoherently for 30 seconds or so and then pass back out. I can not imagine anyone ever fully recovering from that level of insanity.
YY_Sima Qian
@NutmegAgain: Flying the “Hump” to bring war materiel to China was much more dangerous than firebombing Japanese cities late in the war.
YY_Sima Qian
@Ruckus: Damn! That is as much a loss to family & society as physical disablement. Perhaps worse, as the mind is gone.
Ruckus
@YY_Sima Qian:
I’d say far worse. He was at most in his early 20s. Unless a lot changed for him I can’t see that he could be out in society. And of course this was 50 yrs ago and mental health was not all that well understood. It is better today and some of the drugs used are not as severe on the body and personality. Still he had a very long road to travel to get anywhere near what might be considered normal or even just acceptable. He wasn’t the only one either, just that I saw him very early after he was hospitalized, while he was still drowning in whatever hell he’d fallen into. There were two of us who walked into and out of that locked ward every day. There were an easy 25 – 30 men living on that ward.
Chetan Murthy
Well, this is troubling: it sure looks like Taiwan is both not prepared, and not in the mindset to *get* prepared to defend themselves against the PRC. Sigh. To his credit, Councilor Chao was open about these problems. But OTOH, it sure seems that there’s a real failure to understand the gravity of the situation, and that unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is so small that they really won’t have a chance to do anything other than resort to an insurgency, if they cannot sink and shoot down an invasion fleet. Sigh.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-decanted-by-silverado/id1614010500?i=1000605091430
NotoriousJRT
The impact of fighting so long, so intensely, and in the presence of unspeakable brutality on Ukrainian soldiers and citizen witnesses has long been on my mind. “When they finally win, what will they have lost (beyond the obvious deaths and physical wounds), perhaps forever?” It breaks me to think about it. The NYT article sheds light on this. That’s why -even when their domestic political reporting is stupid or harmful, I still don’t say F them. We have to stay with them.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: There are many different forces at play in Taiwan. It has been facing the threat of invasion from across the TW Strait for 7+ decades now, so there is a high degree of numbness in the population & among the elites. For 5+ of those 7+ decades the ROC enjoyed clear technological superiority to the PLA, & even enjoyed numerical superiority over the PLAN & the PLAAF in terms of modern platforms, assuring superiority in the air & at the sea, a lot of people in Taiwan have not updated their threat perceptions in light of the dramatic shift in military balance across the Strait over the past 2 decades.
The ROC military (still called the National Revolutionary Army) has traditionally been seen by the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party as an instrument of the hard authoritarian Kuomingtang regime, & held in strong distrust/contempt. The NRA was underfunded during the two DPP presidencies (2000 – 2008 & 2016 – now), & consistently disparaged by DPP leaning media (which has been dominating the media landscape since the late aughts), leading to terrible morale, poor training/maintenance, & low readiness. The KMT administration from 2008 – 2016 also underfunded the military due to the cross-Strait detente (even a degree of entente) greatly easing tensions, Taiwan Strait was in no one’s list of global hot spots during those years.
The NRA’s ethos & mythos (unit traditions, battle honors, pantheon of heroes) is still that of the revolutionary army from the Mainland, the one that overthrew the Qing Empire, defeated the warlords to unify China, defended the nation agains the invading Japanese, & fought the Chinese Communists. It is entirely at odds w/ the dominant self-conception of the Taiwanese polity – messy dynamics of identity. In fact, many of the leaders in the DPP or the pro-independence parties are descendants from families that had collaborated w/ the Japanese colonial regime, whose privileged positions were overturned when the KMT took over, have the strongest tendency to whitewash Japanese colonial atrocities, maintain the strongest ties w/ the Japanese revanchist right wing, & tend to view the KMT as a foreign colonial regime (& thus the NRA as the iron fist of said regime).
Taiwanese defense spending had traditionally favored big ticket items meant to sustain air/sea superiority & defeat an invasion attempt in the Strait, or at worst on the beaches. The U.S. had favored such sales because it benefitted American weapons manufacturers. The NRA’s middle to upper ranks still conceive a potential battle across the Taiwan Strait as a conventional battle, & is unaccustomed to thinking asymmetrically & unconventionally. The NRA, & more importantly the reserves, are still organized, equipped & trained to fight conventionally to defeat an invasion attempt, rather than unconventionally to increase the cost to the PLA after a successful landing. The popular & elite mindset is still that, if the PLA manages to secure a foothold (& ROCAF & the ROCN having likely already been decimated before then), the war is surely lost, & unconventional warfare merely increases the cost in Taiwanese blood & materials w/o changing the ultimate outcome.
Few people in Taiwan appreciate the alarmist talk in the U.S. that suggest firm timelines for invasion, which only serve to drive down business sentiments & ultimately hurt the economy. The majority of people still want to maintain a version of status quo, unwilling to be subsumed under CCP rule, maintain its de facto independence, but not wanting to incur the immense cost for the uncertain fight for de jure independence.
Finally, there is a the strong sentiment in Taiwan that whether an invasion from the Mainland can be defeated depends on whether the U.S. will intervene directly, whatever Taiwan does is only a delaying action. So, why invest in the military & incur the socioeconomic costs when Taiwan’s fate depends the actions of others?
The fact remains that effective deterrence against an invasion requires credible threats & credible reassurances, or as one formulation I have seen in Taiwanese media: don’t give the CCP hope for a successful forced unification, but don’t let the CCP lose hope for the possibility of a peaceful unification. There is no military solution to Taiwan, only a political one, though there is an important military component to any political solution. Policies by successive DPP governments have weakened both components of deterrence. Policies by Trump & Biden Administrations have attempted to shore up the former component while ignoring the latter, & that leads to a dangerous dynamic. A tendency by some US politicians & think tankers that frames Taiwan as a U.S. asset to be denied to the PRC is also extremely unhelpful, as is the constant drumbeat about the possibility of imminent invasion coming from parts of the U.S. military.
Taiwan being an island cuts both ways. An amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait is an extraordinarily challenging proposition for the PLA, even in face of moderately effective resistance. There is little evidence that the PLA has been conducting the necessary training at the scale needed. OTOH, the increasingly unfavorable military balance means supplying Taiwan is nearly impossible once hostilities start. It is commonly assessed that the PLA can sustain an effective blockade (not necessarily an airtight one) even in face of determined U.S./Japanese opposition. The PLA can shut down operations of the airports & ports along Taiwan’s west cost (which is where the vast majority are located) just by using long range rocket artillery sited along the Mainland coast. That’s before we get to ballistic/cruise missiles, strike aircraft, surface warships & submarines.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gvg: Putin was a spook, & post-USSR Russia has been a world of oligarchs & gangsters. Since Deng Xiaoping, CCP leaders have been those w/ technocratic backgrounds, including Xi Jinping. Even those who did not have degrees in Science & Engineering still had to climb the organizational ladder from the township level, through county/district, city/prefecture & provincial leadership posts, as well as postings in the central party-state bureaucracy &/or major state owned enterprises. Not unlike climbing the corporate ladder in a large MNC. Yes, internal party politics is unsentimental & cut-throat, but it has also been the world of KPIs, data/statistics (however distorted they may be), org. charts, & balancing the myriad demands on governance (economic growth/competitiveness, mass employment, attracting domestic/foreign investment, infrastructure construction, provide/improve social services, containing/suppressing/addressing social unrest whatever the cause).
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: That’s an interesting viewpoint. If the population and the DPP views the military as a tool of repression, and not of defense of the nation, they’re in a really bad way. B/c they need a military that everybody sees as primarily about the defense of the nation.
Alperovitch asked Chou about things like antiship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc. Stuff to take down the invasion fleet. And training the population so that there would be a mass of reservists with skills, and with armories of weapons to use in resistance. Chou agreed that these were lacking, and that it was a problem.
I have to say, if the Taiwanese people don’t get their shit in gear, I fear they’re going to find that US will arrive with too little, too late. If the PRC manages to establish a beachhead, there’s no way the US is going to dislodge them: you don’t mount amphibious landings across the Pacific Ocean.
YY_Sima Qian
The Sino-Russian joint statement at the end of Xi’s visit does not mention the “limitless friendship” & “no forbidden zones for cooperation” that were found in the Feb. 4, 2022 joint statement. I always thought the language was diplomatic fluff meant to give Putin face, rather than something to be taken literally. It was clear as soon as the invasion happened that there are indeed limits to the Sino-Russian entente. Putin really did get very little from the visit. I can’t imagine China selling massive stores of munitions & weapons to Russia, despite what some Russian commentators are saying on Solovyov’s show (which sounds like wishful thinking).
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: The Tsai government is just now starting to move to implement some military reforms in the past year, at incessant & increasingly urgent insistence from the US (Administration, members of Congress, the DOD, the US military, think tank world, etc.). The plan is to increase defense spending from 2% of GDP to 3% & lengthen term of conscription from the symbolic 4 mo. to 1 yr (which is very unpopular among the youths that has traditionally been a bastion of DPP support). There is still a question of the quality of training the conscripts will receive during 1 year of service. During the prior 4 mos. of compulsory service there had been little meaningful training, nor could there be in such a short time. There is also a dire shortage of junior officers & NCOs needed to staff the expected expansion in ranks from lengthened conscription, even as a mostly volunteer forces there has been a dire shortage, & issues w/ poor quality. Taiwanese w/ ambitions don’t join the military, certainly not the Army, & don’t stay for long even if they do join.
To build the kind of effective reserves, Taiwan needs to return to 2 years of compulsory military service, similar to South Korea, Singapore, Israel & Finland. However, that would be a major resource drain on defense budget, a major burden on the economy (taking so many productive members of society away from productive activity), & probably political suicide for any that promote it.
There is something like a US$ 19B of backlog of military sales to Taiwan – announced sales over the years but not yet delivered. A lot of the backlog are big ticket items (such as fighter planes, attack helicopters & main battle tanks) that are no longer the most effective/efficient investments for Taiwan’s limited resources. Some of that probably should be cancelled, so that the money can be spent on anti-ship missiles, air defense, & anti-tank weaponry, as well as upgrading the C4ISR to provide targeting for these weapons, not to mention improved maintenance, training & retention. There is also the problem that US arms are now exorbitantly expensive to procure, for everyone.
By the way, the reason Dmitri Alperovitch is interviewing Vincent Chao, a councilor in Taipei’s municipal legislature (normally not where one would find sophisticated views on national security, international relations, or cross-Strait relations), is because Chao is very close to President Tsai. He did a stint as the head of the Political Department (a position charged w/ interfacing w/ Congress & administration officials) in Taiwan’s de facto embassy in DC. There was quite a bit of controversy at the time because Chao was seen as extremely green & unqualified for such an important posting, one that normally should have gone to a much more senior career diplomat. However, it was clear that Chao had Tsai’s trust. I can’t say how effective he was in that role.
Chao, as a mere city councilor, speaking to a major US foreign policy commentator, should probably be read as outreach by the Tsai Administration to the US think tank world to deliver the message that Taiwan is indeed taking its defense seriously. That is probably the intended messaging, anyway. The message had to acknowledge the blindingly obvious shortcomings, or it would not be credible to US audiences.
I personally find the DPP to be very effective in domestic & international messaging, but decidedly lackluster when it comes to actual governance, especially in terms of developing & executing strategies (for cross-Strait relations, international relations, national defense, energy transition, infrastructure development, & industrial policy, etc.)
LiminalOwl
@Nelle: oh, I am so sorry. That your parents had this experience and (if I’m understanding correctly) for your own experience of vicarious trauma. I hope you’ve got good support now.
LiminalOwl
Thank you, Adam. For this, and for all your work to inform us.
If you (or anyone else here) knows of a way to provide the Ukrainian survivors with therapy remotely, I’d like to know how to get in touch. (If I weren’t a coward, I’d try to go there. But I am.)