Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Today’s GOP: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Let’s finish the job.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

In my day, never was longer.

The cruelty is the point; the law be damned.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 393: Zelenskyy Goes to Kherson!

War for Ukraine Day 393: Zelenskyy Goes to Kherson!

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President Zelenskyy went to Kherson today:

This also happened in Kherson this morning:

While I’m sure they do everything possible to keep him safe, it is important to keep in mind the risks President Zelenskyy is willing to take to get out and be among both Ukrainian military personnel and Ukrainians in general.

Here is his address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

In the free territory of the Kherson region, more than 50 villages were almost completely destroyed by the occupier, but people are returning even to such villages – address by the President of Ukraine

23 March 2023 – 21:34

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

I have returned from the Kherson region – my day was devoted primarily to this region of ours.

The security situation: our responses to the enemy shelling of the Kherson region, counter-battery fighting and everything else that our soldiers do so that the occupier knows that we will not forgive or forget terror.

Today, the Russian army struck again at the Kherson region, hit Beryslav – the local administration, houses, the museum… Even the historical museum in Beryslav is a threat to Russia for some reason… An absolutely mindless state, purely a terrorist state. Which we will neutralize.

I held a long meeting in Kherson with all those responsible for the region: for defense, for the social situation. We separately and carefully considered the energy situation, the issue of recovery.

In the free territory of the Kherson region, more than 50 villages were almost completely destroyed by the occupier. In some places, more than 90% of the buildings in the villages are ruined. But even in such villages, people return, and this is proof that life still prevails.

Today I was in one of the largest such villages – Posad-Pokrovske. Once one of the largest, before the invasion of Russia. And we will do everything to make this village one of the largest again – we will do everything to rebuild our territories.

I am grateful to everyone who helps restore the normality of life after the Russian evil. To everyone who, even in such difficult areas, continues to work and give work, to everyone who helps our soldiers.

I especially want to thank everyone involved in demining. It is nice to see when the fields of the Kherson region, cleared of Russian mines and shells, are cultivated again, live again.

Of course, there are still few such lands, and there is still enough work for our sappers and pyrotechnicians… But I am sure that we will cleanse our land of all the deadly manifestations of Russia. All of Ukraine will live.

I am grateful to Finland, which today announced a new package of security support. Among other things, these are demining machines. Plus, of course, important things for our military on the frontline.

I had the honor to present state awards today to our soldiers who distinguished themselves in the defense of the Kherson region and the whole of Ukraine.

On the train of our “Ukrzaliznytsia” – by the way, I thank the entire team of our strong railway – I took part online in the meeting of the European Council, which took place in Brussels with the participation of the leaders of all EU states and the President of the European Council Charles Michel. I was very specific in this address.

I pointed out the strong steps taken by the partners. But I also noted things that, unfortunately, do not allow us to speed up the liberation of the territories, do not allow us to speed up the end of the war.

First of all, it is the supply of more effective weapons to our warriors – long-range weapons and modern aircraft, regarding which we still see a certain delay in the decisions of our partners. It is also important to move more actively in the direction of new and stronger sanctions against Russia for terror and new steps in our Ukrainian integration with the structures of the European Union.

I am sure: the partners have heard Ukraine’s position.

And one more thing. Today we have a result which we have been working on for some time.

An agreement was signed on the opening of a representative office of the International Criminal Court in Ukraine.

This step will allow international justice to be even more active in investigating the crimes of the Russian military on our Ukrainian soil.

I am thankful to the entire team of the International Criminal Court, the Office of the Prosecutor General, our partners, everyone who helps the work of international justice – the investigation of Russian crimes against Ukraine and Ukrainians.

Glory to all who are now fighting for freedom!

Glory to each and every one who defends our Kherson region, our Mykolaiv region, Odesa region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Zaporizhzhia, Donbas, Kharkiv region, Sumy region, Chernihiv region and all of our Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

A Ramadan message from President Zelenskyy:

Here’s an update from Ukraine’s GUR/Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense and one from Colonel-General Syrksyi posted at the Ukrainian MOD’s Telegram channel:

 

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Bakhmut:

Bakhmut:

Despite the loss of their commander, DaVinci’s Wolves are on the prowl!

Like I’m not going to include a video about a Ukrainian unit named Adam hunting Wagner in Bakhmut?

Avdiivka and Kreminna:

Odesa:

 

Nova Kakhovka, Kherson:

The cost!

The tweet being quote tweeted machine translates as:

The video shows children deported by the Russian occupiers from Kherson region who were returned to Ukraine.

They say that they were threatened with a Pskov boarding school, told that their parents had abandoned them, beaten with metal sticks, and taken away for shouting “Glory to Ukraine.” In addition, the Russians told the children that the liberation of Kherson was not true and that they would forever remain “children of Russia.”

Video: Tatiana Popova.

This guy…

Slovakia:

The Associated Press has the details on what Slovakia is getting to backfill the MiGs:

BRATISLAVA, Slovakia (AP) — The United States has offered Slovakia 12 new military helicopters as compensation for the MiG-29 fighter jets the European country is giving to Ukraine, Slovakia’s defense minister said Wednesday.

Under the offer, Slovakia would pay $340 million for the Bell AH-1Z attack choppers in a deal worth about $1 billion that also includes 500 AGM-114 Hellfire II missiles and training, Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said.

U.S. foreign military financing would cover the other $660 million, he said. The European Union also would send Slovakia 200 million euros ($213 million) in additional compensation, Nad said.

The Slovak government still needs to accept the offer.

Nad said his country’s armed forces currently don’t have any combat helicopters and that the deal would “significantly increase the defense capability of Slovakia.”

On Friday, the Slovak government approved a plan to give Ukraine its fleet of 13 Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, becoming the second NATO member country to heed the Ukrainian government’s pleas for warplanes to help defend against Russia’s invasion.

Slovakia grounded its MiGs in the summer due to a lack of spare parts and expertise to help maintain them. Fellow NATO members Poland and the Czech Republic stepped in to monitor Slovak air space.

Slovakia also has an order in for fourteen new F-16s, but they won’t be delivered until sometime next year.

Despite our NATO partners who are transitioning away from their legacy Soviet/Russian platforms and sending htem to Ukraine, I don’t see the F-16 discussion/debate going away any time soon:

The discussion has now evolved to include request for FA-18s! Machine translated from reporting at Helsingin Sanomat:

Paavo Teittinen HS, Teemu Luukka HS
22.3. 23:09 | Updated 7:17

According to the information obtained by Sanomat, Ukraine has submitted a request to Finland for tripartite discussions between Finland, Ukraine and the United States on Hornet fighters.

The request has come shortly after the Prime Minister Sanna Marin ( sd ) discussed the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyin the possibility of extraditing Hornet fighters leaving the country.

According to the HS, the request has been received by the Ministry of Defense for non-very high-level military officials providing assistance to Ukraine, not directly to ministers or the Finnish government.

REQUEST joins a fact-finding team set up by Ukraine to find out the possibility of obtaining American-based machines from different countries in Ukraine.

According to the HS, Ukraine has visited, or at least expressed its wish, discussions with other EU countries with fighters.

The issue of fighters is extremely sensitive and important to Ukraine, which is defending itself from the Russian war of aggression.

Ukraine’s request for discussions is a reaction to the fact that earlier in March, during his visit to Kiev, Marin opened up the possibility of handing over to Ukraine Hornet fighters leaving Finland. Marin met with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Kiev.

According to HS data, Ukraine was well aware of the fighter situation in Finland. Several sources of the HS say that the fighters first raised Zelenskyi.

HORNETS are coming to an end of their service life and are being replaced by new U.S. F-35 fighters. The first batch of Hornets will be phased out in two or three years at the earliest.

President of the Republic Sauli Niinistö said earlier in an interview with MTV on Wednesday that Ukraine has not been in contact, at least with him, with the Hornets.

UKRAINE Finland’s request for a debate on fighters also applies to the United States. The divestiture would require US approval because the US company has manufactured the Hornets.

The fighter issue is difficult for the United States because it does not want to hand over fighters to Ukraine.

To the President of the United States Joe Biden there has been pressure in the country’s Congress to hand over fighters, but Biden has stated that Ukraine does not currently need fighters. The United States fears the escalation of war.

Also the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has rejected the dispatch of fighters. The President of France Emmanuel Macron and the Prime Minister of Britain Rishi Sunak have stated that sending fighters ” is not excluded ”, but they have not given the fighters the green light either.

MARIN fighter comments emerged earlier in March during a trip to Kiev when a reporter asked about it.

On Tuesday at the Ilta-Sanomat election exam, Marin confirmed that he had spoken to Zelensky before the fighters came up at the press conference.

No promises have been made. But I’m told that we have such a situation, that we are acquiring new fighters and we know their schedule. And that this is a debate that can be held in Finland ”, Marin said.

HS asked Marin on Wednesday evening for a comment on Ukraine’s request for tripartite discussions on fighters.

Marin did not respond to the interview request but forwarded the written comment through his special assistant. The comment does not comment on Ukraine’s request for a debate on fighters, but states that Zelenskyi ” has highlighted the need for confirmation of air defense and the supply of fighters to Ukraine ” on various occasions.

” I told President Zelensky that we can discuss the matter, but promises have not been given. I also told the acquisition of new fighters that Finland has made the decision and that we can discuss the use of the outgoing equipment together with the state management, taking into account the geopolitical location ”, the message conveyed by Marin’s assistant is written.

More at the link!

Release the Super Bugs!

While Ukraine waits to find out what other aviation assets it might get, The Economist reports it is not just sitting around twiddling its thumbs.

On february 28th the skies above Russia buzzed with the sound of hostile drones. St Petersburg, the country’s second city, imposed a 200km no-fly zone around its airports. In Krasnodar in the south, an oil depot went up in flames. Drones reached Belgorod and Bryansk regions, which share a border with Ukraine. One even came close to Moscow—downed after reportedly clipping trees less than 100km from the capital. The incursion was not the first time that Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (uavs) had found a way past Russian defences, but it was the first concerted attack of its kind. It had many Ukrainians wondering if they had found a key to overturning Russia’s long-range strike advantage—even in the absence of long-range Western munitions like atacms missiles, which may never come.

Only a few military systems can perform well. “The Russians are very, very good at what they do,” the industry source says. “They are performing black magic in electromagnetic defence. They can jam frequencies, spoof GPS, send a drone to the wrong altitude so that it simply drops out of the sky.” The threat from ground-based air defences means that Ukrainian reconnaissance drones struggle to see more than 15km behind Russian lines, says one expert with recent experience of observing drone operations.
At an early stage the Ukrainians appeared to pin hopes for controlling drones behind Russian lines on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites, which work at frequencies and in numbers that Russian systems struggle to jam. A naval-drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea fleet in October reportedly made good use of this gap. But Mr Musk, apparently worried about the escalatory effect of such moves, has stepped in where Russian technology proved unable to. Starlink now uses geofencing to block the use of its terminals—not only above Russian-occupied territory inside Ukraine, but also, according to a Ukrainian military intelligence source, over water and when the receiver is moving at speeds above 100km per hour. “You put it on a boat at sea and it will simply stop working,” he says. So Ukraine’s drone developers now use a range of other, more expensive communication systems, with multiple systems often on the same vehicle. The success of the attack on February 28th in getting so close to Moscow suggests that Ukraine may be getting close to a solution that works.
But though Ukraine may have proved the concept, it is another thing to scale it up. Ukraine’s strike-drone programme still appears some way from achieving the production volumes it needs to rival Russia’s long-range strike capacity, says Seth Frantzman, the author of “Drone Wars”, which traces the use of UAVs in combat. One problem is access to air-launched munitions, with America reluctant to provide weapons that could reach deep inside Russia. Improvised devices and ingenuity can only go so far, though the Ukrainians are certainly trying.
Another major bottleneck is engine production, especially the petrol engines (as opposed to electric motors) needed to power strike drones over large distances. Only a limited number of manufacturers in the world can produce them and Ukraine is competing to buy from the same markets as its enemy. “We really sense the presence of the other party here,” says Mr Fedorov, the deputy prime minister

Drones have been flying above war zones for more than a century. The Israelis flew reconnaissance craft in the 1970s; an American precision-strike drone was deployed for the first time in the early 2000s. But current usage is evolving fast. Ukraine is deploying drones in at least five different ways: as small, commercially available reconnaissance vehicles that can feed video footage back over a short range; as small-scale improvised loitering munitions, often designed to disturb more than destroy; as more sophisticated reconnaissance or electronic-warfare drones; as larger loitering munitions designed to destroy heavy armour; and finally as strike drones, whether airborne or naval, able to deliver bombs and missiles over distances of hundreds or even thousands of kilometres.

If the hardware for the former categories comes in many different forms and is mostly produced abroad, strike drones are produced in much smaller quantities and are almost exclusively Ukrainian. It is here that military inventors are hoping to make their breakthrough.

Mykhailo Fedorov, the 32-year-old deputy prime minister responsible for both Ukraine’s drone programme and its digital transformation, says the turning-point may be coming faster than people think. A number of changes are about to make a big impact, he says. The army has completed a big restructuring, establishing 60 new attack-drone squadrons, at least one in every brigade, with separate staff and commanders. This is the first reform of its kind anywhere in the world. Ukraine’s military doctrine has been updated to include (classified) guidelines on drone use. The defence ministry has created a new board to co-ordinate the work of drone producers. There has been a drive to deregulate: removing import and certification barriers. And this month is marked by the launch of a new military “cluster” venture designed to link Ukrainian military tech with international companies and capital.

A defence-industry insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirms that the army is due to gain “significant and high-tech capacity” in the coming weeks and months. That said, it will still struggle against the Russians, he cautions. Their own Iranian-designed drones have tormented Ukrainian cities since the start of winter. The war is also testing drone technologies as never before: over a large, contested airspace and against sophisticated electronic-warfare systems.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

71Comments

  1. 1.

    PaulB

    Thanks, Adam, but you broke something with the comment block after “The discussion has now evolved to include request for FA-18s! Machine translated from reporting at Helsingin Sanomat:”

  3. 3.

    Mallard Filmore

    I do not understand the motive of Russia’s leadership in returning Ukrainian children. Surely they knew that stories would be told ???

    Maybe it was the ICC arrest warrant that changed someone’s mind.

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    While I’m sure they do everything possible to keep him safe, it is important to keep in mind the risks President Zelenskyy is willing to take to get out and be among both Ukrainian military personnel and Ukrainians in general.

    Like I commented on last night’s update, I think about these risks probably more than I should. Every time he’s made a visit to the front lines or any risky area, I’m simultaneously filled with admiration and terror. But I am so glad he does it. It must mean a lot to the troops and the civilians there to be reminded that he truly cares about them and never stops thinking about them.

    (If G&T or any of our other Ukrainian speakers/understanders could translate the bit at the end of the video at the top, when he’s back outside and the woman is laughing a bit, I’d appreciate it :) )

    If anyone wants to see it, here’s the video he made on the train for the European Council (with English subtitles).

    I think I’ve come to hate prigozhin as much as putin. Two absolute monsters who can both fuck off into the sun. The tweet about the children being returned and the things they were told…my God. Repugnant doesn’t even begin to describe it.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  9. 9.

    Adam L Silverman

    @schrodingers_cat: Our immigration system –  including the portions dealing with those seeking asylum and refuge – is broken. It was permanently broken and while I’m sure the Biden administration would like to fix it they don’t have the votes in the Senate, don’t hold the House, and have a bunch of other stuff to deal with.

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @schrodingers_cat: I only know what’s been reported in the news. My understanding from the reporting is that the “grave fear of harm” if one is sent back determination that is required to make it through the first set off hoops is solely dependent on which immigration officials you get. And that the timelines to appeal and the notifications are haphazard at best.

  15. 15.

    Andrew Abshier

    The F/A-18s in Finland are the earlier model “Legacy Bugs”, not the newer E/F models.  Still, they would give Ukraine very enhanced capability if the transfer were to be done.

  16. 16.

    Ryan

    I still don’t get the debate over F-16s given how wide an export market we’ve created for it.  I mean, I get the months of training, but beyond that?  We’ve tried to reinforce that we don’t want HIMARS used against Belgorod, can’t the same approach word.

     

    Incidentally, the F-16 was the platform featured in a movie I saw about 35 years ago called Iron Eagle.

  17. 17.

    patrick II

    The other night we were talking about Xi’s Russia visit and the deal he made with a reduced Putin that in some ways turns Russia’s Eastern section into a Chinese colony. Nine years ago Boris Nemstov gave a precocious speech outlining exactly this result as a result of the Ukraine invasion. He was among the first assassinated for, in part, his criticism of the Ukraine invasion in 2015.

    Courtesy of Jake Broe:

    Does he have a plan to hold on to power? He has such a plan. Where is he leading the country? I can tell you. He leads it into a resource colony of China. Because we are cut off from the West, from Europe, our main trade partners by the way. Just so you understand he is leading the country into a commodity dependence of China. China only needs three things. First, oil and gas and raw materials in general, second territories, and third, weapons. That is, his actions are turning Russia into a colony. Because the social situation In the country is deteriorating as the standard of living declines.

  19. 19.

    trollhattan

    Finland’s petition and eventual entry into NATO is already bearing benefits, such as USAF surveillance flights looking (duh-duh-duh) east.

    U.S. Air Force RC-135V/W Rivet Joint has conducted a sortie inside Finnish airspace for the first time, at least in recent memory, flying opposite the border with Russia. These flights look set to become routine as Finland continues to move through the process of joining NATO, something the country’s leadership decided to pursue following the Russian military’s all-out invasion of Ukraine last year. Today’s sortie highlights how the Finnish ascension to the alliance will allow for expanding already robust efforts to surveil Russia from the air.

    Online flight tracking websites caught the RC-135W Rivet Joint aircraft, which has the serial number 62-4131 and was using the callsign Jake 11 at the time, departing RAF Mildenhall in the United Kingdom earlier today. The aircraft then flew east over the English Channel, the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland, before turning north.

    A statement today from the Finnish Defense Forces, or Puolustusvoimat, strongly suggests that this is the first time that a U.S. Air Force RC-135V/W Rivet Joint, or any other U.S. military crewed or uncrewed intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft, has conducted a routine mission inside Finnish airspace in coordination with that country’s government.

    “The Finnish Defence Forces carries out surveillance flights in Finnish airspace together with key international partners,” the statement says. “The first flight will be conducted in cooperation with the United States on Thursday 23 March 2023.”

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-s-rc-135-surveillance-jet-has-flown-unprecedented-mission-over-finland

    Now if Erdrogan would just get over his eternal hardon for killing Kurds and stop blocking their and Norwary’s entry….

  24. 24.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Alison Rose: The woman says “I just have one question – when will victory come?” Several others chime in, and Zelensky says “it will come.”

  27. 27.

    Gin & Tonic

    On a lighter note – not sure if it was posted here (apologies if it was), but there was some training of UAF members at Fort Sill, on Patriot systems. Reports indicated that they were very quick studies, but the only comment from an unnamed US official was that they asked for more soup with their meals (not surprising to anyone who’s spent time in Ukraine.) The official referred to them as “soup-centric.” So here’s a thread on the topic from a Ukrainian chef who has also lived and trained in the US. Important cross-cultural knowledge.

    1/ Soup centric? SOUP CENTRIC?!! You wanna see real soup centric ?! Oh yeah?! I’LL SHOW YOU HOW SERIOUS WE ARE ABOUT SOUP! :) pic.twitter.com/0dcyZEqkdP
    — Chef Zhenya (@chefzhenya) March 23, 2023

  29. 29.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    a bunch of the kidnapped children, have been kidnapped in violation of Rucist laws, and using bureaucratic loopholes in the laws. There are groups in Russia who help parents find the children, get legal custody, and return the children to Ukraine, ususally through Western Europe.

  30. 30.

    Alison Rose

    @Gin & Tonic: There was a time in my life when the majority of my dinners were various veggie soups. Maybe it was my Ukrainian heritage coming through. (No borscht though, sorry — I tried it and just couldn’t do it.)

  32. 32.

    trollhattan

    @Gin & Tonic: “NOSOUP for you!!!” Holy moly that vat is immense. (Calculating at 8.3 pounds/gallon, carry the 2, multiply by 6.6…) Is big man lift vat, only.

  33. 33.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    I really do not understand Prigozhin not only revealing that he knows Ukraine’s offensive plans but also revealing the details of those plans. It goes against all the rules of poker and war. Am I wrong in thinking that this is just charade or deliberate misdirection?

  36. 36.

    oldster

    I saw a tweet earlier today about Prigozhin winding down Wagner in Ukraine in order to concentrate on Africa. A joke? Confusion? Psy-op?

    Thanks as always, Adam.

  38. 38.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @patrick II: China does not need territories in Far Eastern Siberia, this is the Yellow Peril hysteria that is pervasive in among Russians across the political spectrum.

    10 years ago, China had greater need for Russian weapons. Now, the only things China might be interested in are nuclear submarine tech. & high thrust rocket engines, & even then only to aid & accelerate Chinese development rather than purchasing complete kits from Russia. China still does need an abundant & steady supply for hydrocarbons & farm products, via a channel not vulnerable to interdiction by the US Navy, & Russia is still best fills that imperative by far.

    The thing is, before the take over of Crimea, the Russian economy was essentially the EU’s resource appendage, a market largely conquered by European companies. Even after 2014, Russia was not cut off from the West. It did start to pivot to China to diversify its options. Diversification was/is in Russia’s (would be in anyone’s) interest, regardless of the geopolitical dynamic that drove it. Indeed it should have started to diversify earlier, since being the EU’s resource appendage was not healthy, either. What transformed Russia into China’s resource appendage & closing off most other options was Putin’s decision to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022, just one of a large number of geopolitical & economic disasters for Russia as the result of the decision.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: I wonder what Ukraine had to give up in exchange for the returned children, & whether that would encourage Putin to take more hostages.

  41. 41.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Lyrebird: Goddamn!  I need a cigarette after that!  She tore those M5S fuckers several new assholes!  Good on Prime Minister Meloni!

  42. 42.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Lyrebird: AAAAAnd yet another in a unbroken series of female leaders telling it like it and pulling no goddamn punches!

    [I know she’s associated with some fascist elements in Italy, and I worry about that; still, sufficient unto the day and all that.]

  43. 43.

    Jay

    @Grumpy Old Railroader:

    since the continuation of the Rucist invasion of Ukraine, both Girkin and Prigozhin, spend about 1/4 of their online time trying to push the Rucist MOD to take serious actions. Eg. pointing out what a joke the “Concrete Bunkers” are in the new defensive lines, the “dragons teeth” that can be pushed aside with a Lada, or the new trench lines, dug on the cheap, that ignore terrain, shored up with 1″ x 6″ planks and 2″ x 4″ shoring.

    We all know that once General Mud leaves, there will be a Ukrainian offensive, and probably where it will go.

  44. 44.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Alison Rose: Aww, I’m sorry you didn’t like borscht!  Was it reckoned to be the good stuff?  B/c there’s a lotta watery, bland borscht out there ….  That said, sure, I have a sister who doesn’t like it either: just means I get her beets from her CSA box!  I’ve made borscht a few times now, both from Ukrainian recipes and from the B&H Dairy winter borscht recipe.  Both were excellent.

    I wanna learn about other Ukrainian soups now!

  45. 45.

    Alison Rose

    @Chetan Murthy: It was at a deli in New York, so I’m assuming it was of decent quality. It’s just that the beet flavor is not for me. I’d also tried beets in salad and such, and they do not get along with my taste buds.

  46. 46.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Chetan Murthy: If you want to learn more about Ukrainian cooking, I recommend any of the books by Olia Hercules – the most recent, and best (IMO) is Summer Kitchens. The Veselka cookbook is very good too.

  47. 47.

    Jay

    @Alison Rose:

    the quality of the beets, and the terroir they are grown in, makes a huge difference. Sadly, most of the beets one can get outside of a Farmers Market, are not even close to “the best”. Aside from a few places in North America, beets are not grown well, treated well, handled well.

  48. 48.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Some rather bizarre reporting from Bloomberg: After Xi’s Russia Visit, US Fears World May Embrace China’s Ukraine Peace Bid. I don’t have a Bloomberg subscription to access the article, but Mike Mazarr of RAND has a Twitter thread that summarizes & responds to it:

    This risk has been hanging out there for many months–seemingly avoided b/o Putin’s larger ambitions. But *if* Xi could convince Putin to cut his losses and offer a cease-fire at roughly current lines, it would put Ukraine + supporters in a bind

    Per Bloomberg: “The US is worried about being backed into a corner over the Chinese proposal. … [D]ismissing it outright could let China argue to other nations that are weary of the war — and of the economic damage it’s wreaking — that Washington isn’t interested in peace” /2

    Such an offer combined w/unilateral Russian cease-fire would allow Putin to say, “We got the Donbas back [he’ll claim] and taught the West a lesson, now we go back to peace.” Xi will claim a victory for Chinese statecraft. Much of Global South rejoices + urges all to accept /3

    Of course, accepting current lines validates Russian aggression–but if Ukraine keeps fighting + we aid them, we’ll be painted as the warmongers, and many countries will sympathize w/the argument. China would then be free to aid Russia more directly. NATO unity could falter /4

    There are options if cease-fire arrives. Refuse to accept current lines, demand RU withdrawal. Begin reconstruction (w/China’s help). Offer non-NATO security pledges including aid to Ukraine’s military. Demand that China support assurance that Russia won’t attack again /5

    Push toward EU accession for Ukraine, using it to encourage reform. Publicize war crimes. Leave many sanctions in place to hamstring RU industry. Follow through w/NATO defense pledges. Result = stronger, safer, rapidly developing Ukraine and West + weakened Russia /6

    The cost is awful: Indefinite delay in the liberation of areas seized by Russia. A powerful consideration, and one for which Ukraine might understandably refuse to stop fighting. But the strategic + moral position of Ukraine + its supporters will be substantially changed /7

    Would Putin agree to a cease-fire that would set the stage for the West (+ others) to rebuild the free parts of Ukraine into a military powerhouse + bastion of liberal values, abandoning his goal of seizing the whole country? Hard to see. But we need to be ready if he does /8

    I think Mazarr’s concerns are valid wrt to the Global South countries. The other “straddlers” like India, Brazil & Türkiye will likely come out supporting such a ceasefire that freezes the conflict at current Line of Actual Control (& thus legitimizes Russian aggression). However, I have a hard time believing any attempt to freeze the conflict at current LAC could fracture the Western alliance, it will have to be at least a return to pre-Feb. 2022 LAC before there could be dissension in NATO/EU. I very much doubt there is any possibility of Ukraine entertaining any of his recommendations until at least after the offensives in the Spring through Fall. I think he also underestimates the ability by Putin to spoil any attempt to reconstruct a stronger, safer & rapidly developing Ukraine post-“ceasefire”, through greyzone tactics and constant provocations. The current LAC is much longer than the pre-Feb. 2022 LAC or the internationally recognized borders, giving Putin many more avenues to exploit. I also highly doubt China will provide Russia w/ direct [military] support regardless of the scenario. What is deterring China from such a course of action is the risk of ramifications w/ the US & the EU, not so much risk of ramifications w/ the Global South.

    I am befuddled by the Biden Administration’s tendency to “wonder out loud” to Western MSM when it comes to diplomacy. Not sure whether it is deliberate or poor internal discipline. We have seen it repeatedly wrt Ukraine (public agonizing over which weapons systems to supply, public speculation whether the war is headed toward stalemate, at times reported distrust of the Ukrainian government). We have seen it repeatedly wrt to China (whether China will sell lethal weapons to Russia, whether Xi has a timetable for invading Taiwan). If the former, I think they are far too focused on tactical maneuvering over coherent strategy. If the latter, then Sullivan & Blinken needs to run a tighter ship. Either way, the results can be counterproductive.

    Ryan Hass at Brookings had some good recommendations as to how the US should respond to any potential peace proposal from China that attempts to give Putin cover:

    1/ This feels like an instance when @SecBlinken is right on the merits but wrong on the message. China wants to frame itself as committed to peace and the US as supporting prolongation of war. Better to frame in affirmative that US…https://barrons.com/articles/us-world-should-not-be-fooled-by-xi-proposals-in-moscow-ea04092a… via @Barronsonline

    2/…US wants to see rapid termination of fighting, end of suffering, and arrival of a just peace. US welcomes China contributing to that objective. To play such a role, China needs to understand requirements of Russia and Ukraine, engage both sides, be willing to use leverage…

    3/…to restrain Russian aggression, commit to protecting principle of territorial integrity, etc. US could draw more support and have greater effect by making affirmative case for what constructive PRC role would look like than by warning others not to be duped by PRC. END

  49. 49.

    Jay

    It’s been reported that russia has recruited Steven Seagal to teach martial arts to its soldiers.Rumor has it that the Seagal-style running technique will be included in the training.russian soldiers will now be able to run away from their positions with weird hand motions. pic.twitter.com/rEGr2xfwuf— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 23, 2023

  50. 50.

    S Cerevisiae

    Late at night but I read a rumor that Ukrainian pilots are training in A-10s as well as F-16s, I really hope we give them some Warthogs.

    thanks again Adam for keeping us informed.

    Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦

  52. 52.

    patrick II

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​ I guess I didn’t make it clear enough. Boris was talking in the context of the Ukraine invasion which cut off economic ties to Europe. Nemstov saw the resultant dependence on China coming as a direct result of the Ukraine war, the specifics of the weapons desired are not as important as his prescience of the dependency. It isn’t some amorphous yellow peril paranoia but a specific cause and result.​​​​​​
    ​
    ​
    ​
    ​

  53. 53.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @patrick II: Yes, that direction was clear as soon as the Western coalition stood united in sanctioning Russia in Feb. 2022. Did Nemstov foresee that Putin would try to invade the rest of Ukraine?

    However, the fear of China taking over territories in the Russian Far East has been a part of the undercurrent of Russian Sinophobia, despite having zero evidence that this is something China is even thinking about, & despite Russia having a large nuclear arsenal.

    ETA: There is also a tendency among some Russia liberals that seems to believe being the EU’s resource appendage is a good state of affairs for Russia. In fact, being anyone’s resource appendage is decidedly unhealthy. Russia should have diversified markets & a diversified economy, as should any large country/economy.

  54. 54.

    patrick II

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​
     
    “Taking over ” seems binary to me. Nuclear weapons are irrelevant in softpower economic leverage that exists on a spectrum. China’s leverage has moved mp more than I would be comfortable with in their position.

  55. 55.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: Idunno: this seems relatively easy to counter: even if UA’s supporters demand that UA agree to a ceasefire and peace, UA could:

    1. demand NATO peacekeepers for the LOC, concurrent with the cease-fire.  That’s NATO tanks, planes, etc.
    2. demand that RU repatriate all UA civilians kidnapped to RU as a condition of *entering* negotiations
    3. demand that all UA civilians in RU-occupied areas be given the choice of evacuation to UA-controlled territory, and be given that choice by NATO peacekeepers who would personally travel to find those people and bring them out

    In short, even if UA is forced to give up *land*, they make sure to get out their *people*.  And truthfully, I think that the sight of NATO peacekeepers on the LOC would be enough to make RU demur.

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: I didn’t think it would be hard to counter to preserve Western unity, just put Ukrainian agency front & center as you say (though it might not be all that effective w/ much of the Global South who just want the fighting & the disruption to end). I just don’t get the fretting to MSM that elements of the Biden Administration have a tendency to do, & why Biden, Sullivan & Blinken do not keep a lid on it. (Honestly, it seems Blinken himself does this quite a bit.)

  57. 57.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @patrick II: I am responding to the Nemstov comment that you quoted. I have not seen any Russian commentary on supposed Chinese designs on territories in the Russian Far East that does not suggest outright seizure of these territories. There is also a common false narrative of economic colonization (in Central Asia & Sub-Saharan Africa as well, & now apparently in GOP led states in the US, too), whereby Chinese individuals or companies buy up all the prime agricultural land, contrary to all available evidence.

    China can purchase the commodities extracted or produced by Russia, or purchase the right to extract or produce said commodities in Russia, just like any country in any other country. These activities will give China immense leverage, including potentially to bully, but that’s just how the world works. The US is not above bullying its partners (including staunch allies such as Canada) when it comes to trade. OTOH, any assets purchased by Chinese concerns in Russia can be nationalized on a dime if relations ever deteriorate again. See how quickly the Germany subsidiaries of Gazprom & Lukoil were nationalized after Russia invaded Ukraine.

  58. 58.

    patrick II

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Putin missed his chance to diversify his economy from the beginning. So, as Biden put it, they were going to be a gas station with nukes for somebody.
    Was it clear that they would be forced to switch to China?

    Yes, that direction was clear as soon as the Western coalition stood united in sanctioning Russia in Feb. 2022. Did Nemstov foresee that Putin would try to invade the rest of Ukraine?

    I don’t agree with your assertion that everyone knew the sanctions were going to be as successful as they were a year and a half ago, forcing a turn to China. It was particularly unknown whether Western Europe would be able to weather this past winter without Russian natural gas. Putin, at least, thought they wouldn’t. It certainly wouldn’t have been known nine years ago when Nemstov gave his speech.
    So, to answer your question, I think Nemstov knew Putin and his ambitions very well, so I think the answer to your question — did Nemstov’s invasion of the rest of Ukraine nine years ago? — is yes. I don’t think generally, with the exception of Adam and a few others, western experts appreciated how aggressive Putin would be in restoring the Russian empire. They do now. Nemstov did then.
    Anyhow, YY_Sima Qian, thank you for your thoughtful responses. We may not entirely agree, but I feel I have learned from an expert.
    Regards,
    Patrick

  59. 59.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @patrick II: Thank you for the kind words. I am definitely not an expert outside of my profession (perhaps not w/in it, either), just another anonymous poster on internet.

    I am not even disputing Nemstov’s perspicacity. Just wanted to clarify what I think China is actually seeking from the relationship, & the likely means through which to achieve those objectives, contra Nemstov’s characterization. The idea of China grabbing a piece Far Eastern Siberia in Russia’s moment of weakness is one of those zombie ideas that just refuses to die, resurfaces every so often in Western MSM, think tank products, these comments, & Russian discourse. There are simply much cheaper & less risky ways for China to obtain its objectives securing resources & assets. Chinese leaders, perhaps more than most, are intimately familiar w/ how a humbled/humiliated/wounded great power (or a country that conceives itself as a great power) can nurse a deep grudge, and nurse it for a long time. That is why, despite the increasingly lopsided disparity in power & optionality, Chinese leaderships continue to bend over backwards to give their Russian counterparts face in their direct interactions, however full of exasperation & contempt they may feel in private.

  60. 60.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The idea of China grabbing a piece Far Eastern Siberia in Russia’s moment of weakness is one of those zombie ideas that just refuses to die

    There’s a moment at the end of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy where the Russian mole Bill Haydon says to George Smiley “we were already America’s streetwalkers”.  I think it is in that sense, that Russia will become a colony of China: that is, having little-to-no independent foreign policy, b/c so completely tied to China economically.  And soon enough, technologically too, b/c what this war is demonstrating is that Russia’s capacity for indigenous technological innovation is almost gone.

  61. 61.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy:

    As long as Putin has thousands of nukes, his foreign policy will not be dictated by Beijing. Hell, the North Korean economy is completely dependent on China, but the Kim Dynast has remained a fiercely independent player throughout, even before becoming a nuclear state. The heightening Sino-US rivalry also makes China less inclined to try to rein in Kim or Putin.

    Also, I fear you underestimate Putin. He will try to every which way to egg on the Sino-US rivalry & the deepening Cold War. The more intense the rivalry, & the more closely the US & the EU are aligned, the more Xi will lean into the entente w/ Putin. (Evan Feigenbaum has been arguing this point for years now.) Furthermore, the best way to completely get out from under being China’s junior partner is if China & the US come to blows over Taiwan (even better if there is a limited nuclear exchange), then take advantage of the resulting ruination. He can help create the conditions for that nightmare via the GOP.

  62. 62.

    Hangö Kex

    I don’t think there is much change of FA-18s from Finland. This was just a careless comment by Marin; strictly speaking she said just that giving the FA-18s could/should be discussed, but even mentioning this sort of thing is easily taken as a promise (which seems to have happened). Also, these are close to end-of-life (which is why they are being replaced with F-35s) so there really isn’t much to give, and, at best these would be available only some time after 2025 and then only piecemeal (as that’s the way the replacements come in).

    Marin, btw, is facing a parliamentary election (02APR) and her changes of continuing as PM are not looking great; this is not so much about how her Social Democrat Party is polling, but more about the other parties that’d be likely coalition partners.

  63. 63.

    bjacques

    @Jay: I’m impressed that Ukraine in wartime still has resources to devote to its space program—at least a dozen volunteers sent into orbit in the last year alone. Not to mention Alexander Dugin’s daughter who unexpectedly volunteered at the last minute…

  64. 64.

    Traveller

    @YY_Sima Qian: Well some people may call it Sinophobia, others might look at China’s recent order to rename Russian cities in the Far East to their previous Chinese names as…a legitimate concern.

    “China’s Ministry of Natural Resources has just issued new regulations on map content, which require the addition of old Chinese names to the current Russian-pronounced geographical names of eight places along the Russian-Chinese border,” Radio France International in Chinese reported on Feb. 23.   

    The eight Russian place names, comprise six cities, including Vladivostok and Khabarovsk, one island and one mountain.

    https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/13560

    And as noted on the Chinese Translation Blog

    Reminds me of the article circulating on some Chinese websites discussing and then gently opposing a view circulating in China “2022: Weibo: We Got Hong Kong Back, Why Not Vladivostok?”

    ^^^^^^^^^^

    Maybe not in our lifetimes, but map place names last for a long  time.

    Best Wishes, Traveller

  65. 65.

    lowtechcyclist

    We tried borscht the last time we were in Russia and were unimpressed.  TBF it was room-service borscht at the hotel we were staying at in Samara, and the hotel was one of the Western chains. But still, one would think they’d have people who could tell good beets from bad.

  66. 66.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Traveller: Your own link to the David Cowhig’s blog gives the explanation – it was an order to standardize the naming of several cities/locales in the Russian Far East, specifically in unofficial publications.

    To use Vladivostok as an example:

    Official Chinese maps have been using 符拉迪沃斯托克 (海参崴) for Vladivostok since at least the early aughts, after the Sino-Russian border disputes (involving a few islands in the middle of Ussuri & Amur Rivers, not the entire Outer Manchuria) had been settled. 符拉迪沃斯托克 (or Fuladiwosituoke in the Pinyin romanization system) is the phonetic transliteration of Vladivostok (or Владивосто́к in Russian) into Standard Mandarin Chinese. 海参崴 (or Haishenwei in Pinyin) was the name of the Chinese settlement at Vladivostok, before the Russian Empire seized Outer Manchuria after the Treaties of Aigun & Peking in 1858/1860. Until the recent government edict, unofficial Chinese maps & documents (such as news reports) typically referred to Vladivostok as only 海参崴 .

    I can confirmed that even official Chinese maps dated from the 80s & 90s would show only 海参崴 for Vladivostok, not 符拉迪沃斯托克. I just checked the Chinese map APP on my phone, it shows Vladivostok-Владивосто́к-符拉迪沃斯托克 (海参崴) for the city.

    Why old Chinese names for only 6 cities (& 2 geographical features – Sakhalin Island & Stanovaya Ridge), & not all of the others? These were the places that had significant Chinese settlements before the Russians took over, & people in China might see referenced in Chinese history books by their old Chinese names. All of the other settlements in the region were created by the Russian Empire or the fUSSR. For example, Komsomolsk-on-Amur, or Комсомольск-на-Амуре, is translated as 阿穆尔河畔共青城市 in Chinese (literally meaning “Communist Youth City on the Bank of the Amur River”). There is no attempt to assign old Chinese or Tungusic names (of necessarily obscure origins) to these dozens of cities & towns in the Russian Far East.

    The government edict only applies to the Chinese translations, & the old Chinese names only in parentheses after the official Chinese translations (which are typically phonetic transliterations from Russian). In all English or Russian documents, official or otherwise, there is only Vladivostok or Владивосто́к, no Haishenwei.

    One could have made a slightly more serious claim that China had been nursing a latent desire to recover Outer Manchuria back in the 80s & 90s, when even the official maps only used 海参崴 for Vladivostok.

    The PRC’s territorial claims are inherited from the ROC’s, but less expansive (such as the PRC recognizing the independence of Mongolia while the ROC did not). Although both the ROC & the PRC maintain that the Treaties of Aigun & Peking were unequal treaties (among others, such as the Treaty of Nanking that ceded Hong Kong Island to the British Empire, & the Treaty of Shimonoseki that ceded Taiwan & Penghu Islands to Imperial Japan) forced onto the Qing Empire under duress, & thus unjust & illegitimate, the ROC ended up relinquishing its claims to Outer Manchuria, & the PRC followed suit.

    But, it is pretty much par for the course for discourse on internet that a nugget of random information is taken entirely from its context & is distorted as evidence of some grand conspiracy or world-historical development.

  68. 68.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @Tom Levenson: I think I’ve mentioned this before, but FWIW: in Prague in summer 1990 I had a meal at a “Russian” fast-food joint called the Arbat (up Revoluční ulice from Náměstí republiky, not far from the Kotva department store, IIRC) consisting of borshch and a couple of what later became known as “sliders”. The borshch in its stainless-steel bowl looked distressingly like Pepto-Bismol, but when I dipped in the spoon I discovered that the veggies lurked on the bottom, and it was quite tasty. (Sliderooskies weren’t bad either. :^D)

  69. 69.

    KenK

    Adam, much thanks for your coverage and commentary. I have a question; when this war is over and Ukraine emerges victorious, how does this destroyed war matériels get cleaned up? Specifically, who cleans up, who pays for it and where does it go? Thanks.

  70. 70.

    Traveller

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​  Yes, I knew that this would be your response but our brief conversations have forced me to consider whether or not I am Sinophobic?I think not, but I am kind of China concerned , and rightfully so, especially if you look out over the years.
    One sees the conquest of Tibet, its border clashes with Russia and Vietnam, the ridiculous 9 dash line in the South China Sea as well of course as dangers to Taiwan.
    There is reason for concern.
    The Great Glory of Balloon Juice is that the content is rich, varied and continually arriving. However, none of these issues can be properly delved into. Properly is probably the incorrect word there, it simply means that any of my above topics could lead to an extensive discussion themselves.
    Therefore, just be said that I very much appreciate what you have to say here.Best wishes, Traveller gotta run​​

  71. 71.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Traveller: Of course there are reasons to be concerned w/ China. It is a rising great power increasingly behaving like a rising great power throwing its weight around. It is entirely natural that its neighbors would seek ways to balance its rising power, & the current global hegemon would fear for its position. The CCP regime’s domestic policies clearly have reprehensible aspects (some rising to the level of likely crimes against humanity) as the result of its unrestrained hard authoritarian nature. It is entirely legitimate to censure inhumane domestic Chinese practices, check against bad behavior by the Chinese government internationally, & hedge against potential future Chinese aggression. (BTW, the PRC inherited the preposterous dashed lines in the South China Sea from the ROC, only the ROC was never strong enough to enforce its claims, other than for a brief moment between the end of the WW II & the beginning of the 2nd Chinese Civil War. Likewise w/ Tibet.)

    However, the example you give here is nonsense. The China discourse in the U.S. is dangerously unhinged & getting worse, chasing after phantoms menaces, unchecked threat inflation, speaking of conflict (hot or cold) as inevitable (making it a self-fulfilling prophecy). A lot of the polemics against at China are aimed at imagined crimes rather than real ones. We seem to have hurtled into a Sino-US Cold War w/ tightening technological containments that is bleeding into the broader economic/financial/academic arenas, framing nearly every foreign policy engagement in nearly every part of the world on nearly every topic into a battleground for Sino-US rivalry, all w/o any public debate whether this is the right strategy to confront the China challenge or the inevitable costs to the world, its most dynamic region in the Asia-Pacific, & the US’s domestic liberal democracy (especially the impact on its East Asian American community). Worse, the U.S. is dragging its allies & partners down this path.

    Both dynamics can & are at play concurrently.

    Meeting the China challenge requires correct & nuanced analysis, otherwise the policy prescriptions are garbage in garbage out.

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