Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

“Squeaker” McCarthy

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 403: A Quick Sunday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 403: A Quick Sunday Night Update

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A cafe in St. Petersberg went kaboom today!

From the video, it is clear that a bomb or IED was emplaced inside the cafe.

More on this after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Rashism must face a total defeat: military, economic, political, legal – address by the President of Ukraine

2 April 2023 – 19:57

Ukrainians!

Today, Russian terrorists again struck at Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region. At ordinary residential blocks. Six people were killed by this Russian shelling. Three women, three men. Ordinary people of an ordinary town in Donbas. My condolences to the family and friends of the deceased…

Another 11 people were wounded. Russia used S-300 missiles and the Uragan MLRS against Kostiantynivka.

This morning, Russian terrorists also attacked the Konotop district of the Sumy region. Mortar fire. Two people were killed. My condolences to all relatives, friends, all families…

These are just a few examples of dozens of hits per day. There is only one way to stop Russian terror, to restore security to all our cities and communities – from Sumy region to Donbas, from Kharkiv region to Kherson region, from Kyiv region to Yalta. And this is Ukraine’s military victory. There is no other way and there will be no other way.

The evil state for which it has become the norm to hit residential buildings with “Uragan” like this, to launch S-300 missiles at cities, to shell ordinary villages, people… The evil state must be defeated. In every sense of the word. Rashism must face a total defeat: military, economic, political, legal. The first point is military. And it will face it.

I thank everyone who brings this time closer! I am grateful to our warriors who are fighting near Avdiivka, Maryinka, near Bakhmut… Especially Bakhmut! It’s especially hot there today! Near Bilohorivka, near Kreminna and all our other cities, towns and villages of Donbas! The resilience of everyone is the resilience of the whole of Ukraine, helping everyone in a position nearby is helping the whole of Ukraine!

And I would especially like to mention the 77th separate airmobile brigade, the 67th and 92nd separate mechanized brigades, our paratroopers of the “Eightieth”, the 5th separate assault brigade… Thank you, guys!

Marines of the 35th and 36th brigades, gunners of the 55th separate brigade, the 64th and 66th separate gun divisions of the 406th artillery brigade… Thank you, warriors!

Thank you to everyone who protects Zaporizhzhia, Kherson region, the direction of the Dnipropetrovsk region and Kharkiv, Sumy region and Chernihiv region… To everyone who protects our border. Who saves our people from injuries, from pain.

Of course I would like to separately thank everyone who trains our warriors, as it is on powerful training that a successful combat result is based.

Today, April 2, we celebrate the anniversary of the liberation of our Kyiv region from the rashist army. On April 2, the last occupier fled from the territory of the Kyiv region.

There will be a day when we will say: the last occupier has fled or been killed in the Donetsk region, Luhansk region, Kherson region and in our entire south. Crimea will be free and safe again. Ukraine will return all its territories.

Next week will be especially important for our defense, for our advancement towards victory. We are already preparing for scheduled events and decisions.

The key thing now is to cherish our unity, take care of our defenders, help each other and the state.

Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

There was no operational update today from the Ukrainian MOD posted on their Telegram channel. They did, however, post an announcement from Deputy Defense Minister Malar regarding the training of Ukrainian military chaplains:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut:

Bakhmut:

Kostyantynivka:

Here’s more on the guy who got blowed up:

WARNING!!!! WARNING!!!! The Video in this Tweet Is GRAPHIC!!!!!!!

Dmitri from War Translated has been following this guy’s Telegram channel and posts for a while now. Here’s his description of him:

Here’s the full text from Dmitri’s tweet:

A lot of people aren’t really familiar with Tatarskiy. Unfortunately, I know quite a bit about him since I’ve been following his channel for a while now. But a quick rundown of what he was doing during the war:

– Participated in the Donbas war since 2014.
– A criminal, was in prison for bank robbery.
– A self-proclaimed “writer” (I haven’t read anything).
– Since Feb 2022, been on and off in the Donbas, often traveling back to Russia.
– Definitely felt very comfortable in the war.
– Had a sizeable TG following, was posting “Evening Vladlen” summaries to his channel every night, in addition to opinions and suggestions.
– Close associate with a number of Rascists, including RSOTM admin (Wagner group). He was indeed very close with Wagner.
– In recent months, began hosting an irregular show on Solovyev’s channel together with the creator of Rybar.
– Essentially, he was a minor superstar in the z-world, everyone knows him. While his death may not trigger a physical response, it will have a massive effect on the Russians. It already does.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

@patron__dsns

Усім іграшковий лизь!👅 #песпатрон

♬ som original – Modelscut

I’m going to need one of those Patron’s for my office! So if someone figures out the link, please put it in the comments.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

78Comments

  2. 2.

    Geminid

    Thank you, Dr. Silverman. These updates are excellent individually; as a whole, they are invaluable.

  5. 5.

    Yutsano

    Amazon has a few different options all made in Ukraine. I personally didn’t see a Patron I liked but there’s options out there!

  6. 6.

    zhena gogolia

    Everyone who comes in my office is envious of my Patron square made by QuiltingFool.

  7. 7.

    Alison Rose

    As I said in the earlier thread about the fuckhead what got himself blowed up: BYE BITCH. I’d say tots and pears to anyone who cared, with all the requisite sarcasm, but then I doubt a single person gave a single shit about him.

    I wonder if one day, russians will learn the wisdom of the phrase “don’t start none, won’t be none”. Probably not.

    If you need a bit of a palate-cleanser, here’s a short video of a soldier with a double armload of kittens. You are welcome.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  8. 8.

    West of the Rockies

    Dead guy had an ugly, smug mug.  Adios,  dipshit.

    Was anyone else killed in the blast?

  20. 20.

    Another Scott

    AlJazeera:

    Tatarsky is the pen name for Maxim Fomin, who had accumulated more than 560,000 followers on Telegram and was one of the most prominent of the influential military bloggers who have provided an often critical running commentary on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    He was among hundreds of attendees at a lavish Kremlin ceremony last September to proclaim Russia’s annexation of four partly occupied regions of Ukraine, a move that most countries at the United Nations condemned as illegal.

    […]

    Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari, reporting from Moscow, said there were at least 100 people in and around the cafe for the event organised by the “Cyber Front Z Movement”, where Tatarsky was speaking.

    […]

    After the Kremlin’s annexation of four regions of Ukraine last year, Tatarsky posted a video in which he vowed: “That’s it. We’ll defeat everybody, kill everybody, rob everybody we need to. It will all be the way we like it. God be with you.”

    Russia’s foreign ministry paid tribute to Tatarsky, lashing out at Western governments for failing to react to the attack.

    Bloggers like Tatarsky “are defenders of the truth”, ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Telegram, adding that the lack of reaction from Western governments “despite their concerns for the welfare of journalists and the free press speaks for itself”.

    […]

    He was part of VVP’s war machine.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  23. 23.

    dmsilev

    Blowing someone up at a cafe in the middle of St. Petersburg also sends a bit of a message to all those residents of the core Russian cities who thought that the war was Someone Else’s Problem and that they themselves never had to really worry about it.

  25. 25.

    Jay

    ❗️❗️ Update on the Ukrainian soldier that was beaten up today by the ProRussian Clergy-FSB-Agents in the Khmelnytskyi Church in 🇺🇦:⭐️ The cathedral in Khmelnytskyi was taken over by its righteous owners: the Ukrainian Church! ⭐️ The keys have already been taken, the… pic.twitter.com/eAC1xghHvz— Ukraine War Now ✙ (@uarealitynow) April 2, 2023

  26. 26.

    Jay

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    there is infighting amongst the sliovi, they are breaking up into factions and alliances.

    Most of the origional gangs took each other out in turf wars or were “cleaned” by the FSB because they were disruptive.

  28. 28.

    oldster

    The woman who walked into that cafe and gave him the statue.

    I hope she is safe now.

    But even if she had the best escape plan in the world, that is one brave woman.

    Like, unbelievably courageous, to walk that bomb in there, knowing who those people are.

    I do not know whether she is a hero of Ukraine, or perhaps a horrible person on the Wagner payroll — after all, this genuinely may be a fratricidal hit among the rushian mafia. But she certainly has nerves of steel.

  29. 29.

    Chetan Murthy

    @oldster: You remind me of the discussion of the 9/11 hijackers.  I remember people saying they were “cowards”.  But they weren’t cowards at all: quite the opposite, incredibly brave.  Still our enemies, still supporting something evil, but that doesn’t mean they weren’t brave.  And again: still our sworn enemies.

  31. 31.

    Quiltingfool

    @zhena gogolia:  It’s about time to raise some more money for Ukraine…I’ve got one quilt ready to go, and another ready to quilt.  Quilting on the big machine will have to wait until my new knee gets better!  However, small blocks can be done on my regular sewing machine.

    Photo of the quilt top (not quilted yet)…it features cats…but I have a dog pattern by the same designer that I will make in blues and yellows.

    https://pin.it/v0mPw0p

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    there is video of him being given the statue, (in celebration of him robbing a bank)

    He was just receiving an award for his attempt to rob a bank back in 2011, which is common among the so-called Donbas liberators. Needless to say, he was blown away 🙏🏻 pic.twitter.com/WOAxpiziAq— Dmitri (@wartranslated) April 2, 2023

    It wasn’t a girl who gave it to him.

  33. 33.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: Watching stuff come past on Josh Marshall’s twitter lists, it seems that while she’s ostensibly been arrested, the arrest video has a woman with a face covering: so maybe her, maybe not.  There is talk that it’s her mother.  Some ex-Duma member’s Russian resistance group has claimed responsibility.  Who knows.  I think all we can do is watch for the next few days and see how things shake out.  It could be a resistance op.   It could be a lone wolf.  It could be inter-silovik fratricide.  Maybe something else.

  36. 36.

    Adam L Silverman

    @oldster: She’s been identified and arrested. Provided they got the ID correct. I’ve seen the pictures of her handing him the package and walking away down the street before the explosion.

  37. 37.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: From what I’ve read she and her husband are both anti-war activists. Not sure what that means in the context of Russia in 2023 beyond they opposed the re-invasion. But you are correct, it does not make sense.

  38. 38.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: She delivered the statue that was then handed to him later as the award for the attempted bank robbery. I’ve seen the pictures of her bringing the box with the statue to the cafe, leaving, and then walking away down the street. Unless she was set up to be the patsy by having her deliver it, which I wouldn’t put past any of this crowd, G&T is correct, the hit makes no sense.

  39. 39.

    ReadWrite

    A long-time lurker here. Adam, thank you so much for these nightly digests. Between your posts and the informed comments I think I have a much clearer picture of what is happening in and about Ukraine than I could get from just about any other source.

    I do have two questions. The first is about the ethnic makeup of the RA casualties. Everything I have read (including here) says that the bulk of the soldiers are from the ethnic regions and not from the “privileged” big cities east of the Urals. I’m sure that’s true for the conscripts and the contract grunts, but does it apply to the officers? Before the war, I was under the impression that the officers were more likely to be from privileged places (or near them) and not from the hinterlands. If so, I would think that their losses would be noticed by family members and that knowledge would spread.

    My second question is about Bakmut. I’ve watched the slow development of the salients around the city center. At some point, the UA is either going to have to withdraw or push back. Are they just biding time before mud season is over? Every day those maps make their position look a little more precarious…

  40. 40.

    oldster

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Hard to interpret. If she were FSB, they might make sure that she did not get arrested. If she were Ukrainian, they might make sure she died resisting arrest. If she were someone they really wanted to interrogate, they might bundle her away and not let her associates know she was captured.

    The months to come may tell us more, or perhaps they will not.

    On balance, I would rather that this is a rushian-on-rushian fratricidal hit. I suppose it would be a coup for the Ukrainians if they did it, but it would not be worth the cost. And as I understand it, the US rebuked them in private after the Dugina hit.

  42. 42.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    Tatarsky was a real sweetie of Z land: “We will defeat everyone, we will kill everyone, we will rob everyone we need, everything will be as we like.”

    Good riddance! What a rotten pos!

  43. 43.

    Gin & Tonic

    @oldster: Tatarsky has no value for the Ukrainians.

    The NKVD did a similar hit in Rotterdam in 1938, taking out the head of the OUN (it was a box of chocolates) but that had clear strategic value and did, in fact, cause the OUN to splinter and become ineffective. Tatarsky is nothing close to that, just a loudmouth.

  45. 45.

    Jay

    Prigozhin claims Bakhmut is 'legally' taken, and shows a Wagner flag with a message "good memory to Tatarsky". This footage is near the city administration of Bakhmut if we have to believe Prigozhin. He says that Ukrainian units have moved to the western part of Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/QfikLEuBs4— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) April 2, 2023

  48. 48.

    RaflW

    @dmsilev: If something like this repeats (and even from this one event), one may also expect increased domestic security which increasingly inconveniences the elite in Russia. Of course the elite in Russia should be more than inconvenienced, but each ratchet of the domestic cost of this horror has some impact.

    eta: Not as sure as I read more comments. This hit, as it were, does look weird. I was previously assuming it was a bomb planted because this was a known gathering. Delivering the explosive, wow.

  51. 51.

    Jay

    🧵Thread 1/ Yesterday, a public announcement was made regarding the formation of a group called the "Club of Angry Patriots." To gain insight into the gravity of this group, I recommend briefly examining their backgrounds and reviewing the summary of their "manifesto." pic.twitter.com/JwMvOYOWzy— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) April 2, 2023

  59. 59.

    Anoniminous

    Now rumors are circulating she was not arrested, she and her husband are on the run, and it was her mother and sister that were arrested.

  61. 61.

    Medicine Man

    Re: Tatarskiy.

    In my best Kyrylo Budanov dispassionate monotone: “I am happy to see it.”

  63. 63.

    Trollhattan

    Oh man, first Jacinda and now Sanna. [Sadface]

    Finnish conservative leader Petteri Orpo has won a nail-biting three-way election race, defeating Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s centre left.

    “We got the biggest mandate,” said the leader of the National Coalition Party, after a dramatic night in which the result gradually swung away from Ms Marin’s Social Democrats.

    Mr Orpo secured 20.8% of the vote, ahead of the right-wing populist Finns Party and the centre left.

    The populists won a record 20.1%.

    It is a bitter defeat for Ms Marin, who increased her party’s seats and secured 19.9% of the vote.

    Well, she delivered NATO membership so legacy cemented.

  65. 65.

    Carlo Graziani

    A 200g TNT bomb makes little sense on its own. Here is a blast damage calculator. Enter TNT, 0.2 Kg, 5 meters away, and you get almost no structure damage. The “fatal distance” is 1.35m from the bomb, much beyond that you are at worst at risk of eardrum rupture. If the deliverer left, how would they be sure of setting it off before he put it down?

    They may have packed the thing with ball bearings. That would be a different story, and explain the damage pictures, including that blown-out window.

    Still, in that case, how is he the only fatality? Had Prigozhin been in the room, he would presumably be among the merely injured.

    This story makes no more technical sense than it does political sense.

  66. 66.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Carlo Graziani: Incidentally, a 1 Kg TNT bomb would have resulted in a fatality radius of 2.3 m, yielding a tripling of the killing area—and of the probability of killing someone. A 2 Kg payload would have yielded nearly a 3 m range, and 5 times the killing zone area. Neither weights would be particularly noteworthy in a trophy statuette.

    Maybe they coated the part of the statuette that Tatarskiy grabbed with superglue, and he couldn’t put it down before it detonated. Now that would be funny. Especially if they arranged for it to tick.

  67. 67.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Japan just announced that, due to energy security needs, it will purchase oil from Sakhalin at US$ 70 / barrel, higher than the G7 agreed cap. It supposed win an exemption from the G7. Something to keep an eye on to see if it turns into a trend.

  71. 71.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: I watched that vid.  Perun credits RUSI well.  I watched an interview with Justin Bronk of RUSI, talking about UA’s need for modern fighters …. months ago.  Bronk said the same thing Perun is saying: RU has better air superiority fighters, better missiles, better radars, and can slowly chew up UA’s fighters.  UA can only hold the line and slowly fall back.  They need better fighters, so they can shoot better missiles, so they can take down those RU fighters.

    Sigh.  It’s all been so clear for so long.

  75. 75.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: RuAF’s air to air missiles and fighter avionics are interior to current NATO state of the art, but definitely better than what the UAF has to make do w/. F-16s upgraded with the active electrically scanned array radars, firing AIM-120 AMRAAM C5s (or later) would be a potent combo against RuAF bombers that are lobbing cruise missiles at Ukraine.

  76. 76.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: Right.  Both Bronk and Perun pointed out that we can deliver fire-and-forget missiles that are faster and with greater range, but without upgraded NATO-standard fighters, UA can’t shoot the damn things.  In my dreams, some wizard is figuring out how to retrofit MIG-29s to carry these missiles, replace the radars, replace the control apparatus.  But I know that this is not in the realm of the possible: UA needs NATO-standard fighters.

  77. 77.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: Perun is very comprehensive, and persuasive. I completely buy his argument for provision of some Western aircraft platform, be it Gripens, Vipers, or Eurofighters, just for the sake of doing the back-end logistical homework that will eventually furnish a vast range of rapid escalation capabilities. As a glass-half-full-and-rising sort of person, I’m going to assume that this set-up work has been secretly underway for some months, since USAF analysts can add nearly as well as Perun can, and have much better data to work with.

  78. 78.

    Ruckus

    @Quiltingfool:

    I really, really like my quilts and am starting the process of making frames for them. I’ll send pics when I get done. No one should hold their breaths though. I’ve gotten as far as purchasing the maple for the frames….

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