(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The Russians did not just blow the Kakhovka dam, they are also destroying smaller dams in Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
2/ Satellite images show the change in the water level in the village of Petrivka, 30 km west of Melitopol. pic.twitter.com/YL2ETjmCHr
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) June 9, 2023
In the video, Russian invaders destroyed small dams in Petrivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast to prevent Ukrainian advance. Just to note, yesterday, Ukrainian defenders made territorial gains in Lobkove and Luhove pic.twitter.com/l3ta5CoVVp
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) June 9, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukrainian sense of international relations is that we should always take care of each other – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10 June 2023 – 18:53
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!
A summary of this day. The first is negotiations with Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau.
Weapons and ammunition. There is a defense package, in particular, the important 155mm. The coalition of modern fighters and the training of our pilots have the visible progress. The movement towards NATO – in this regard, there is also a result today.
I am personally grateful to the Prime Minister and to all Canadians for their unwavering and unequivocal support for our freedom.
The consequences of the Russian terrorist attack on the Kakhovka HPP were discussed in detail. Canada is among those who can help us recover from this disaster. We understand each other in the steps that are needed. And they are needed very quickly.
Of course, we will not stay away from the disaster Canada is facing now.
Massive wildfires, colossal environmental losses, and threats to people… Ukraine is ready to help extinguish fires if Canada needs such international assistance.
Our Ukrainian sense of international relations is precisely in the fact that we should always take care of each other when support is needed. And really help.
I am sure it will become global principles. Mutual action, mutual support, mutual strength.
Now, unfortunately, we see that at some levels in the world, there is simply a shameful indifference to the ecocide and human tragedy caused by the Russian terrorist attack on the Kakhovka HPP.
When international organizations that are supposed to protect life on a global scale do not have time to organize and send a rescue mission to the occupied territory even in a week when some world players do not dare to come out even with clear and strong statements that would condemn this new Russian war crime, terrorists are simply fueled by this weakness of the world, this indifference – it encourages them. And we have to overcome this. And we will overcome.
We are pressing and encouraging so that international organizations and international support come to the part of Kherson region where the occupiers are now.
As of now, over 3,000 people have already been evacuated in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. But again, it is only a free territory under our control.
In the occupied territory, it is only possible to help people in some areas – Russian terrorists are doing everything to make the victims of the disaster as many as possible. Russian shelling continues – even at evacuation points. Russia does not provide any real help to the people in the flooded areas – not for the sake of propaganda, but for the sake of the people…
The Russian state and the Russian leadership should bear separate, fair and strict responsibility for all this.
And international organizations should operate in our areas, which we have not yet de-occupied. Every life is important – all of Kherson region, all of the south. Every city and village. We will do everything possible and impossible so that help comes to all our people.
I thank each of our rescuers, military and police, local communities, and international organizations currently operating in Kherson region and Mykolaiv region, all our volunteers – each and every one who helps save people, animals, and life in general in the disaster zone… I thank the journalists, who spread the truth and tell the world the stories of people who have suffered.
I’m thankful to everyone who helps people after the strikes of Russian missiles and Iranian Shahed drones. Odesa… My condolences to the relatives of those whose lives were taken last night by Russian terror… More than 20 were wounded. Everyone gets help.
As every day, thanks go to our soldiers. To everyone who is on the front line, in positions, at combat posts, and on combat missions. Who destroys the enemy on land and protects our sky. I thank everyone who is taking a stand and who is moving forward. Khortytsia, Tavria – thank you to each of our heroes!
Every effort to quickly restore peace to our entire state, every city, every village, every corner of Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is the video, with English subtitles, of the joint press conference with President Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Trudeau:
Kherson:
Look closely into her eyes.
Maria, 84 y.o., is suffering from the second full-scale war of her life.
The russia-caused flood submerged her house in #Kherson.
She is one of the lucky ones. Unlike so many others, she was rescued.
📷 Pavlo Petrov pic.twitter.com/MzL6PcgYUA— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 10, 2023
A team of rescuers and volunteers in Kherson who received a NAFO boat thanks to your help. – https://t.co/tVmFpZckH5
Also a short video about the conditions in which this team has to work. pic.twitter.com/DV8l0EgEWZ— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 10, 2023
And a Ukrainian strike on the Arabat Spit:
Reportedly, this night strikes were carried out on recreation centres in Kherson region:
– Arabat Spit (1-2 photos)
(45.9904660, 34.8479778)
– Zhelezny Port (3-4 photos)
(46.1206061, 32.2827680)@GeoConfirmed pic.twitter.com/wEw2o3nPP7— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 10, 2023
Kharkiv, Poltava, and Odesa:
Last night, russians attacked Kharkiv, Poltava, and Odesa regions with cruise missiles, Iskander ballistic missiles, and Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 drones.
Our air defenders shot down 2 cruise missiles and 20 Shaheds.
Unfortunately, fragments of the destroyed drone hit an… pic.twitter.com/cwOcvDAJ46— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 10, 2023
Here’s the full text of the tweet:
Last night, russians attacked Kharkiv, Poltava, and Odesa regions with cruise missiles, Iskander ballistic missiles, and Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 drones.
Our air defenders shot down 2 cruise missiles and 20 Shaheds.
Unfortunately, fragments of the destroyed drone hit an apartment building in Odesa. Three civilians were killed, and 27 others, including a pregnant woman and two kids, were injured.
Three people killed and 26 wounded including three children in Odesa as a result of drone attack. Can't believe Russia kills civilians every night, and someone is still talking about negotiations. pic.twitter.com/BfSH8jVaJ2
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 10, 2023
Kherson and Khakhovka:
Saving cats, dogs, and humans in Kherson and Kakhovka 1/ pic.twitter.com/3VOyk4KwV5
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) June 10, 2023
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) June 10, 2023
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) June 10, 2023
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) June 10, 2023
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) June 10, 2023
11/ pic.twitter.com/BcmnfhFOeQ
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) June 10, 2023
13X pic.twitter.com/9oT16tP8Pa
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) June 10, 2023
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 10 June 2023.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/Sr1VlSp8Hy
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/lBSwEVN2pH
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) June 10, 2023
I know everyone is seeing a few videos or a couple of pictures on social media of Ukrainian armor and other vehicles after they hit a few mines. This has resulted in a lot of gloom and doom. Everyone needs to chill out and realize a few important things. The first is that this is the first time the Ukrainians are really attempting combined arms maneuver. The senior leadership has and is working very hard to shed the Soviet and post-Soviet Russian system of land warfare they came up in early in their careers. The younger Soldiers – those from 2014 on – have learned their own way of war the hard way and it isn’t based on the Soviet legacy model. There’s a layer in between, however, that will have to work hard to overcome the indoctrination they received as their careers progressed. So this is going to be a work in progress. The second is that the Ukrainians DO NOT HAVE AIR SUPERIORITY! And the Russians, if they could get their shit together, have the ability TO HAVE AIR SUPERIORITY! The United States Army is really the only professional military that can do combined arms maneuver at scale and we ALWAYS HAVE AIR SUPERIORITY! We wouldn’t even attempt to do what the Ukrainians are doing without air superiority. The third thing to keep in mind is that this is not going to be the 1st Armored Division making a speed run to Baghdad. The axes of combat is long and winding and runs through multiple different types of terrain. That alone would make whatever the Ukrainians are really doing now and are going to be doing throughout the summer and Fall difficult. It will be a long, grinding campaign. There will be clear advances, clear setbacks, and a lot of the time the conflict may and will look frozen as each side grapples with the other. Clausewitz’s statements about fog and friction need to be kept foremost in mind at all times. The Ukrainians are in this for the long haul. The least those of us watching from safety can do is not to freak out with every tweet.
As I just wrote, the Ukrainians are in this for the long haul. The one thing that should not be in doubt is that the vast, vast majority of Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions even if it prolongs the war. From The New Voice of Ukraine:
The vast majority of Ukrainians – 84% – continue to believe that no territorial concessions are acceptable, even if that means the war will last longer and they will have to live under further threats, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) survey released on June 9.
Only 10% believe that Ukraine should give up some territories to achieve peace and preserve independence.
In every region of Ukraine, the absolute majority of the population is against any territorial concessions, KIIS said.
In Eastern Ukraine 75% are against concessions (only 13% are ready to make concessions), while 86% are against concessions (only 8% are ready) in Southern Ukraine.
Compared to May 2022, there is a distinct dominance of the opinion in all regions that Ukraine should not cede any of its territories, sociologists said.
KIIS noted there were only 19 respondents in the sample who continue to identify themselves by nationality as Russian. This amount is not enough for statistically reliable calculations. However, it is indicative that among them only two respondents are in favor of concessions, and 15, on the contrary, reject any concessions.
The survey was conducted from May 26 to June 5.
1,029 people were interviewed by phone in all regions of Ukraine, with the exception of the Russian-occupied territories. Those who went abroad after Feb. 24 were also not interviewed.
Since last May, the indicator of Ukrainians’ unwillingness to make territorial concessions to end the war has remained at almost the same level, despite regular Russian attacks on critical and civilian infrastructure.
The nighttime missile strikes at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, which have been going on almost every day for over a month, has not affected the opinion of the respondents. Russia also began to actively use ballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defense, however, intercepts almost all enemy targets.
More at the link!
Here is Michael Kofman’s take on the past week’s events. Kofman is the Director of Russian Studies at the Center for Naval Analysis.
My comment here is not meant to paint a rosy picture. Early impression is this looks much closer to Kherson than Kharkiv. Those who thought it would be difficult, with high levels of attrition, are therefore not surprised. But this is based on very fragmentary visual evidence.
— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) June 9, 2023
And Franz-Stefan Gady’s:
And all of these combined arms operations are being conducted without Ukraine having achieved air superiority, something no Western-style military, including the United States, has any experience in.
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) June 10, 2023
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 10, 2023
Olaf Scholz:
"… and that part of🇺🇦territory is simply turned into🇷🇺. That, in all honesty, is President Putin's plan. (…) He wants to build another🇷🇺empire. He thinks his country is not large enough. To him, 🇺🇦+🇧🇾are part of Russia, as he has told us time and again." /2
— Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff (@KleineBrockhoff) June 10, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
@patron__dsns Ранкові афірмації 🥰😌
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Morning affirmations 🥰😌
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Short Twitter thread here on why people are so reluctant to leave their homes even in the face of flooding and shelling:
Wasserman is an American living in Ukraine, and a good observer. Worth a follow if you’re on Twitter.
Alison Rose
This is one reason why pretty much the only posts I read about the war are yours, because you help me restrain myself from freaking out! Especially since I don’t have any military experience or knowledge, so unless I see something literally go kaboom, I don’t have a solid frame of reference to know if it’s worthy of mild celebration or abject horror.
The animal rescue videos are a mix of both.
I don’t know if the dude from the UN is still out there somewhere babbling about what an amazing job they’re doing, but someone should ask him point-blank if he thus thinks that Zelenskyy and others in Ukraine are lying about not getting the assistance from humanitarian orgs that they need. Because both sides can’t be telling the truth, and I sure as hell know which one I trust.
Thank you as always, Adam.
japa21
@Gin & Tonic: That’s a pretty universal feeling, specially in places where generations live and occupy the same land. It’s hard for people in a more mobile society, such as ours, to understand the emotional ties to a small plot of earth when that is all a person knows.
japa21
What is interesting about the videos that have come out where Ukraine is shown on the, let’s say, not winning side, is that there are very few of them, and some of them are repeated or shown from different angles.
Yes, it is understood that this is going to be a costly campaign for Ukraine, but doing nothing would cost them more. And if they are really being beaten up, you can be sure that Russia would be dumping video after video from different incidents, and so far they aren’t.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: It’s worse:
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: JFC. How absolutely pathetic.
MomSense
@Adam L Silverman:
Why is the UN being so conciliatory to Russia?
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: This is very important:
One of the points I kept making to tamp down enthusiasm that the various events across the Maghreb and the Levant in 2011-2013 lumped together as the Arab Spring, as well as Iran’s Jasmine Revolution were going to lead to anything was the exceedingly large and obvious amounts of imagery manipulation on social media – specifically Twitter – in an attempt to make what was happening look larger, more widespread, and more heavily supported by the populace. This was done in the hope of generating international support, including donations, to a variety of legitimate and illegitimate causes. It wasn’t that the grievances weren’t real, they were. It’s that those who took to the streets never had a broad and deep enough amount of support to achieve the positive changes they were both hoping for and attempting.
So what you’ve identified is always something to keep a weather eye out for.
Freemark
Not sure all those animal rescues were pets. The first one looks more like bobcat…lol.
It is pretty telling that, even in their own propaganda, Russia doesn’t show any care for animals. While for Ukraine saving all lives are so very important.
This has been proven demonstrably true. https://youtu.be/64hqMUo4ROY
Gin & Tonic
@MomSense: Because they are one of the Permanent Members of the Security Council.
Adam L Silverman
@MomSense: The short answer is that because of the Red Scare in the US, especially among the Beltway class, the US officially broke the Secretariat. Once the Soviets found out they demanded their own concessions. As a result, the UN is not what it was supposed to be and has never functioned properly. Shirley Hazzard’s The Countenance of Truth documents this extensively.
NutmegAgain
@Freemark: I figured it was some variety of Norwegian Forest Cat or Maine Coon sort of breed. There’s more video of that specific rescue, and you can see more of the cat– it would challenge Steve, that’s for sure!
Chetan Murthy
Denys Davydov is a bad, bad man. Bad Denys, bad Denys! *grin*. He made a pretty funny joke in his daily update: https://youtu.be/lC6g3of7MVo?t=990
ROFL (wait for it, wait for it)
TW: ok, so there’s nothing grisly, nothing blowing up. Seriously, nothing bad happens in the video. But by implication, something bad happened.
Omnes Omnibus
@MomSense: Because Russia is on the Security Council and has a veto over UN actions.
trollhattan
@Freemark: Mentioned this morning that’s basically Ukraine Steve. Very Maine coonish. :-)
Lyrebird
@Alison Rose:
These posts are so informative, agreed. I don’t know if reading DKos is your cup of tea or not, but that’s the only other place I go for Ukraine news, and I was relieved to read “New video from the Ukrainian side shows that the Western gear did their job—the crews were saved.”
There’s a vid with smoke bombs being deployed and a lot of “Davai, davai, bistra bistra” which I think is roughly go on, quick… you can see crewmen run over to the rear vehicle.
ETA: Not that I assume that any real wartime manouver will lead to everyone coming back.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
Best way/route to donate for flood relief? Also, is dam repair and detox/decontamination the sort of job for ACE?
Chetan Murthy
@Anonymous At Work: WaterGirl set up the thermometer to the right with World Central Kitchen and Razom for Ukraine. Both do relief work (WCK does that solely). Razom has been involved in flood relief, too.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: I posted the United24 appeal in last night’s post. That’s always a safe way to go.
My professional opinion is that yes, US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) would be exceedingly useful. Don’t hold your breath on them being made avaible.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
My doctor: I think it would be good for your mental health if you didn’t follow the Ukrainian war news so closely. Just 1 or 2 days a week away from it should do it.
Me: Sounds like a plan.
Russians: We should slow the Ukrainian counter offensive by throwing a full blown ecocide! Yeah, that should do it!
Me: 🤦
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Sorry!
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Adam L Silverman: Not your fault! 😂
That said, my disgust with the concept of realpolitik has reached new depths. I realise that, when dealing with a nuclear armed country, especially one whose leadership has, shall we say, a questionable connection to reality, caution is a necessity. But FFS! The Black Sea is now a contamination zone & some of that contamination is active, potentially lethal mines. I mean, even Olaf Scholz is getting blunt.
Just the same, thank you for these updates. You are the cold clear voice of reason & experience. Thank you.
Chetan Murthy
If you read this, prepare for your blood pressure to rise significantly: https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/10/press-conference-by-ukrainian-pows-in-hungary-to-denounce-ukraine-praise-russian-orthodox-church/?swcfpc=1&__cf_chl_rt_tk=4OPQMFIceZfODWMKqS_a829wcEkIBcXfopNgaHOcuVc-1686450061-0-gaNycGzNDJA
Jesus, if Orban is conniving in holding these POWs captive *on Hungarian soil*, I …. I ….. I don’t know what to say, but I know that I want him feet-first in a woodchipper.
Once Ukraine has won, we need to deal with Orban: if the Hungarians cannot extirpate this filth, then we need to kick HU out of NATO, and the EU needs to kick ’em out for good measure.
Freemark
@Adam L Silverman:
Thank you for all you do Adam. Almost all my Ukraine war info comes from you and the GOS, with some The Drive / Warzone thrown in. Without coverage from you and Kos I feel a great many people would be far less aware of this war and its importance. The quality of your updates have been outstanding.
You have done yeoman’s work and should be recognized for it.
OverTwistWillie
“Well, it’s like this. I was on a hill as a battery commander with six 88 mm anti-tank guns, and the Americans kept sending tanks down this road. We kept knocking them out. Every time they sent a tank we knocked it out. Finally, we ran out of ammunition and the Americans didn’t run out of tanks.”
Freemark
@Chetan Murthy:
The Geneva Convention does allow for a ‘neutral’ country to inter POWs. I would hope Hungary would also treat them better than the Russians. But if it’s to help Russian propaganda fuck Hungary and Orban. It is time to consider kicking them out of NATO. They obviously can’t be trusted to not trade dangerous info to the Russians.
Chetan Murthy
@Freemark: A NATO member that thinks it’s a “neutral country”. Ffufufufufu………
Andrya
@Freemark: The Geneva Conventions forbid subjecting prisoners or war to insults or public curiosity. If the Hungarians just did what Turkiye has done- taken custody of Ukrainian POWs who are then housed safely and privately- that would be fine. It’s hard to believe that Hungary is not continuing russian pressure on these POWs to denounce Ukraine, and the POWs are clearly being subjected to public curiosity.
Anonymous At Work
@Anonymous At Work: I want the Russians to hold their breath until ACE shows up. Literally.
Also, tried writing to Congress but since I am not in any useful district, I am begging friends to write to (bleh) French Hill.
Andrya
My take is that, in game theory terms, Hungary is a free rider on NATO. Orban thinks he can reap the benefits of being a putin client, but he also doesn’t trust putin (who would?) so he has NATO as a backup in case putin turns on him. A pact like NATO- which is literally “I will die to protect you, and you will die to protect me”- absolutely cannot tolerate free riders. Orban’s concept of the NATO pact is “I’ll do what I want, I will undercut you whenever it’s to my advantage, and you will die to protect me”. No country wants to send its soldiers to die on behalf of a two-timing, double dealing snake.
Damn, I wish John McCain was alive today.
Sebastian
Excellent reference thread on Russian defense lines:
Sebastian
AN here is another good one about the effects of the broken dam. It could be rebuilt in three years (once there is peace) and the reservoir needs one year to refill:
Carlo Graziani
This is very good advice that everyone should take to heart. It is of a piece with the general wisdom concerning braking crisis/war news: 90% of all early reports are bullshit. They represent the resonant amplification of rumor-noise by signal-starved journalists on daily deadline.
The other thing to keep in mind is the rather extreme mismatch between the timescales characteristic of war and those characteristic of the news cycle. It can take many days, if not a week, for even well-informed commanders to obtain a clear picture of the shape of a battle (let alone a coordinated series of battles across multiple theatres) from the extremely confused, haphazard flow of information that comes back from the field. It can easily take weeks/months for even part of that picture to become available to the public. When it makes it, it will have to be discerned through the confounding noise generated by the 24-hour news cycle in the meantime, driven by the “Dead Air: Bad” effect.
Which is not to say that one can know nothing as events unfold. Only that one needs to be well-supplied with salt, and not take the councils of one’s optimistic hopes too seriously.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Absolutely right that we need to keep things in perspective as we get glimpses (edited photos & videos from both sides aimed at advancing their respective narratives) from the front lines as the Ukrainian offensive gets moving.
I would note a few things from these glimpses:
1) Many of the videos show the Ukrainian Army columns advancing in daylight, when they should enjoy greater advantage at night w/ their western equipment; we know the Ukrainian Army is also attack at night, but why push so hard in daytime at all; perhaps clearing minefields & breaching fortifications is easier in daylight?
2) Videos show advancing Ukrainian mechanized columns (toward areas sure to be mined) w/o engineering vehicles (especially those that are efficient in mine clearing) close at hand; as soon as the lead vehicle hit a mine, the column has to stop & becomes vulnerable to pre-sighted artillery strikes and ATGM sniping
3) As mentioned in the comments, NATO grade gear is often doing the job keeping the crew & occupants alive; in a war of attrition, the mathematics of reducing crew casualties & chance of catastrophic losses add up to an overall advantage; OTOH, Ukraine still does not have that many NATO equipment, each Leopard or Bradley lost will not be easily replaced
4) A lot of the Ukrainian MBT/IFV losses are mobility kills, so if the Ukrainian Army can continue to push forward, they can be recovered, repaired & returned to the fight; the Russians would be smart to target these immobilized/abandoned heavy equipment to ensure they are completely destroyed, but Russian artillery and Air Force probably lack the precision munitions for the job
5) The Ukrainian Army needs more tactical AD against drones & attack helicopters; their AAAs & MANPADS are not that effective or efficient against the Russian Lancet drones, & Russian attack helicopters can snipe at Ukrainian columns from > 5 KM away, outside the range of Ukrainian point AD; the Ukrainian Army had S300s & Buks for theater & strategic AD, it seems to be missing something like the Tor-M1/2s that can advance w/ the mechanized columns & outrange the ATGMs launched from attack helicopters; NATO has always assumed air superiority/dominance. & so had not adequately invested in tactical AD until relatively recently; the US Army is also inducting drone focused AD equipment w/ some pretty advanced capabilities, but I don’t think any has been donated to Ukraine (likely out of fear of being captured by the Russians
I think the Ukrainian Army should have marched to Belgorod, w/ the aim of seizing & perhaps holding the area (at least for a while). While the Russians have constructed a nominal line of defense alone the Russo-Ukrainian border, it has not seemed to bother the Russian volunteer groups in their raids. A brigade (using non-NATO equipment) sized raid there would have severely disrupted the Russian plans for defense. Vetoed by the U.S./NATO?
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Two thoughts:
After all, the point is to get RU to commit serious units in Belgorod, right? If they don’t then sure, go attack the railhead in Belgorod city. Sure. But if there are serious troops there, then you don’t want to do that: you want to attack the railhead in Starobilsk, right? B/c that both cuts the line, and gains territory you want to gain and *keep*, yes?
At least, it would seem. But also, surely UA’s Western partners told them “look, sure, harrass the fuck out of the RU bastards, but don’t go holding territory up there and make us look bad, yeah?”
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: I think the Ukrainian Army had trained & equipment 9 maneuver brigades for this years offensives. It could have spared 1 for raid to Belgorod. Given the apparent lack of defenses, the Ukrainian Army could have conducted the raid in force using a medium mechanized force consisting of AMX-10RCs, Strikers & technicals.
The way Putin & company have justified & conducted this war, it could not allow the Ukrainian Army to attack & seize Russian territory, on a number of levels. Every intelligence assessment has estimated that Russian has thrown almost all of its land forces into Ukraine, so it likely has to respond to such incursion by drawing from the reserves situated behind the defensive lines at Luhansk & Donetsk. That allows the Ukrainian Army to better able to exploit any breakthroughs there. That is the point of such an effort, the purpose of temporarily holding territory is to force the Russian Army to divert reserves from elsewhere, digging in is to force the Russians to commit more reserves. Destroying/damaging the rail yards at Belgorod & Starobilsk are bonus stretch goals.
What the Russian volunteer groups accomplished are PR victories akin to Kadyrov’s Chechens.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Isn’t there the problem of the VKS bombing that brigade? And since RU has AD protecting their territory, UA’s airforce can’t assist ?
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: The VKS has done jack & sh*t in close air support & interdiction in the invasion so far. If it was capable of more than attacking Ukrainian infrastructure or terrorizing Ukrainian civilians, it would have played some role in slowing the Ukrainian blitzkrieg through Kupyansk last year. In any case, the Ukrainian Army could push forward some of their S300 & Buk units to provide AD cover. The RuAG has been very risk averse around Ukrainian AD since their losses early in the invasion.
The Russian response tot he raids by the Russian volunteer groups have been to evacuate the residents and then pound their own villages w/ heavy artillery. Not a viable response if the Ukrainian Army had arrived in force and took much more territory.
Sally
@Chetan Murthy: Rhetorical question – where is the ICRC ?!!!! They are supposed to have access to, and demand access to, POW’s. ICRC – even more Useless.
kalakal
Regarding the deliberate destruction of dams I think Russian commanders should be reminded of the fate of Seyss-Inquart.