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If you’re pissed about Biden’s speech, he was talking about you.

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The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 490: Da Fuq De Doin Ova Der Part IV

War for Ukraine Day 490: Da Fuq De Doin Ova Der Part IV

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Before anyone asks, I DO NOT KNOW what the hell is going on! I’ve been offline most of the day, but seen the same reports and reporting you all have that GEN Surovikin has not been seen since Saturday AM and, according to The Moscow Times, been arrested. That Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister went to Syria and personally told Assad – read that as ordered – that Wagner could no longer operate there independently. Etc, etc, etc. I expect more and more aftershocks as this plays out.

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Russia and its accomplices must feel that the price of their terror will only increase for them – address by the President of Ukraine

28 June 2023 – 22:49

Dear Ukrainians!

First of all, regarding yesterday’s Russian attack on Kramatorsk. Today, work continued all day at the site of the attack. Unfortunately, the death toll has increased. Russian missiles claimed the lives of 11 of our people, including three children. My condolences to the families. More than 60 people were injured and wounded.

Today, the Security Service of Ukraine together with the police special forces detained the person who coordinated this terrorist attack. They hit an ordinary cafe in Kramatorsk, a popular pizzeria. Neighboring houses, shops, and a gas station were damaged. An ordinary city, an ordinary life. There may still be people under the rubble.

Everyone who helps Russian terrorists destroy life deserves the maximum punishment. And this applies not only to some collaborators. Everything is clear about them. These are people without humanity. Anyone in the world who does not understand that one cannot be an accomplice of a terrorist state must be held accountable by the entire international community. The spotter is being charged with treason. The possible punishment is life imprisonment. Accomplices of a terrorist state must be treated as betrayers of humanity.

We will continue our work to strengthen international sanctions against Russia and its accomplices. They must feel that the price of their terror will only increase for them. And we will continue our global legal work to ensure that international instruments work in one way or another to punish all Russian terrorists and the aggressor state itself.

Today, in my address to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the occasion of Constitution Day, I spoke, in particular, about justice. I spoke about internal justice, which is about accountability for violations of law in Ukraine. And about justice in relation to the Russian-Ukrainian war – about Russia’s accountability for war crimes. The policy of justice will be one of the foundations of the Ukrainian Doctrine, a fundamental document that will determine the course of our country for decades.

We need such a document. Everyone in Ukraine, all our neighbors, everyone in the world should know what our national goal is, what we consider to be the end of this war, and how we are going to live after this war. No matter what the occupiers try to do against us and no matter what kind of terror they use, they will not be able to break Ukraine. They will not succeed in knocking us off the path that leads the occupiers to accountability for everything they have done against us and that leads us to our guaranteed security and lasting freedom.

Ukraine and everyone in the world who stands with us in defense of freedom will also stand in defense of justice. Justice for all those whose lives were taken by Russian terror, whose fate was broken by the Russian war. Eternal memory to all our people, to all Ukrainian children who were killed by Russian savages!

I would like to briefly report on the day.

The Presidents of Lithuania and Poland, Gitanas Nausėda and Andrzej Duda, paid a visit.

A very timely and useful visit on the eve of Vilnius. The format of the talks was both joint and bilateral. Weapons for Ukraine. By the way, thank you, Gitanas, Mr. President, for the decision to purchase and transfer NASAMS systems to Ukraine, as it is very much needed. We discussed common political challenges in the entire region and between our countries. Of course, we also talked about the launch of negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union, which we expect to happen this year.

I met with Chief Master Sergeant of the 47th separate mechanized brigade “Magura” Valerii Markus. We talked about the war, our warriors, and our defense.

We also discussed the reform of record keeping in military structures. Less paperwork and bureaucracy, more digitalization. We discussed the reform of the sergeant corps. It was a good conversation. Thank you for the chevrons!

Today, on the Constitution Day of Ukraine, I had the honor to award our warriors and hand over state awards to the families of our heroes. It was very emotional, very honorable. I am proud of our warriors! I am grateful for everything and for the saved life of Ukraine!

Congratulations to everyone on Constitution Day and, most importantly, I wish us all, each and every one in our country, to multiply freedom, glory and independence of Ukraine! And so it will be!

I also congratulate all Muslims of Ukraine and the world on the beginning of Kurban Bayram. May we all achieve peace for our country, for our countries, for our children. A fair and just peace.

I thank everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine! I am grateful to each and every one who is now in combat, at combat posts and in positions. Thank you, warriors, for your new advancement!

Glory to Ukraine!

Full text of the tweet:

On this Constitution Day, let’s honor those who are sacrificing their lives to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. This war has demonstrated that this cause is truly a matter of concern for all the Ukrainian people. We will defend our land! We will defend our Constitution! We will win!

The butcher’s bill part too many to count!

The Swiss are on my last nerve! From The Financial Times:

Switzerland has vetoed a plan to export nearly 100 mothballed Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine, citing neutrality laws for a decision made just as Kyiv’s counteroffensive enters a decisive phase.

Bern’s veto is likely to spark anger among Switzerland’s European allies, who for months have been pressing the government to relax its restrictive interpretation of a long-cherished neutrality policy.

The tanks have never been in service in Switzerland, were never intended for use by the Swiss military and are not based in the country. All 96 are stored in Italy, having been acquired in 2016 from the Italian military in a private transaction by the Swiss arms manufacturer Ruag.

“The Federal Council has concluded that the sale of the 96 tanks is not possible under [Swiss] law as it stands. In particular, such a sale would contravene the War Materiel Act and would result in a shift from Switzerland’s policy of neutrality,” the Federal Council — the seven-person executive arm of the Swiss government — said on Wednesday afternoon.

The move is consistent with the Swiss government’s previous decisions, but nevertheless represents the single most consequential veto, in terms of lost military potential for Ukraine, that Bern has wielded.

The decision deepens the wealthy alpine country’s diplomatic isolation in Europe, as it tries to steer a path that protects one of its most venerated national political principles, while also seeking to maintain economic ties with the west and cast itself as a moral critic of Russian aggression.

In March, the US ambassador to Switzerland, Scott Miller, warned the country was facing its gravest geopolitical crisis since the second world war as a result of its intractable position over military aid to Ukraine.

France’s ambassador has said Switzerland’s stance makes the country “a problem for Europe”. Germany, meanwhile, has become increasingly critical of its neighbour, not least because Switzerland’s stubbornness stands in stark contrast to Berlin’s own dramatic Zeitenwende, or turning point, on military spending and lethal support for Kyiv.

Switzerland last October refused to allow Germany to donate antiquated Swiss-made anti-aircraft rounds held in German stockpiles to Ukraine, citing a clause requiring permission from Bern for their onward use.

For critics, the most recent veto again highlights the absurdity of Switzerland’s policy on arms exports when it comes to practical reality: the 96 tanks in question have never even been on Swiss soil, and were acquired from Italy’s military seven years ago as part of a commercial enterprise by Ruag. The company planned to sell them on to third countries anyway, after it had refurbished them.

Earlier this year Ruag requested a licence for their export to Germany’s Rheinmetall, on the understanding the company would then refurbish them and sell them on, with German government support, to Ukraine.

More at the link!

Ukrainian officer Tatarigami has a long thread regarding mines and what they mean for the counteroffensive. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

2/ The mine problem encountered in this counter-offensive would pose a formidable challenge even for NATO or Western militaries if given the same resources. With thousands of heavily mined square kilometers, it is a complex and protracted issue that cannot be easily resolved.
3/ Providing us with more anti-mine means would improve the situation, but it doesn’t solve all the challenges. Russians use various methods to lay mines, including manual, mechanized, and remote approaches, adding complexity as different types of mines require various clearance
4/ While the possibility of bombarding the mined areas to create safe passages theoretically exists, it would necessitate an extensive quantity of ammunition and resources that Ukraine currently lacks and realistically cannot acquire to clear dozens of kilometers that way 
5/ What about mine plows? While this option may appear viable, it is vulnerable to ATGM fire or loitering munitions, effectively blocking the passage and exposing personnel to potential artillery engagements as they struggle to retreat or dislodge the stuck vehicle.
6/ Does the use of mine-clearing line charges prove effective? Yes, it does. However, there are two crucial caveats to consider: a single M58 or UR-77 charge clears only a relatively small area, whereas our objective is to address areas kilometers in depth, not merely meters.
7/ In previous wars, it was easier to approach the enemy at close proximity without being easily detected. However, the element of surprise has diminished significantly due to the constant presence of drones, which easily detect any approaching mine-clearing vehicles. 
8/ While the ultimate goal is to suppress the enemy before the mine-clearing vehicles arrive, it remains a difficult challenge to contend with covert and mobile ATGM teams, helicopters, and loitering munitions that cannot be easily neutralized.
9/ This necessitates an extraordinary level of coordination among anti-air defense, electronic warfare (EW) units, sappers, engineers, artillery, and reconnaissance elements on a scale not encountered by many modern armies in recent large-scale operations. 
10/ The chaining effect of mines is often overlooked but significantly hampers maneuverability in battle. Even after minefields are supposedly cleared, residual mines create lingering doubts, discouraging swift movements and maneuvers by military units
11/ In conclusion, it is crucial to acknowledge the gravity of this issue and allocate the requisite resources to bolster Ukraine’s anti-mine capabilities. To overcome it, we must prioritize the development of innovative solutions and foster exceptional unit cooperation. 

Bakhmut:

Full text of the tweet:

A mobilised Russian soldier from the 1486th Regiment complains about his commanders who threw them like cannon fodder into the Battle of Bakhmut. The regiment replaced the “Wagner” PMC fighters that withdrew from Bakhmut at the end of May. It appears that things are not going smoothly for the Russian forces in Bakhmut as Russia continues throwing mobilised men into suicidal missions with no support.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is a new video at Patron’s official TikTok, but it is one of those that won’t embed. Which I’ve deduced happens only with the videos that quickly cycle through a batch of still images. So click across and take a look!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

95Comments

  2. 2.

    trollhattan

    Thread on mines is a tough read WRT how they bog down progress and remain a threat even after being “cleared.”

    Lord knows in that faraway time when civilians again live in the now-occupied parts of Ukraine, how long it will take for it to be safe for them, considering all the UXO.

    Onward.

  5. 5.

    zhena gogolia

    It’s Bozhe, not Boizhe 😄

    I was offline and didn’t hear about Surovikin. Things are too interesting lately.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    To the homophobic troll who is sitting in moderation. I’m trashing your comment and banning you. If you come back you will receive a less pleasant response.

  8. 8.

    Alison Rose

    Man, fuck the Swiss and their pompous neutrality garbage. If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor. Or as Zelenskyy put it:

    Accomplices of a terrorist state must be treated as betrayers of humanity.

    To my mind, refusing to help Ukraine is not much different from giving actual aid to russia. So the Swiss can take their chocolate and watches and piss off.

    Rawr.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  12. 12.

    Dangerman

    I read someplace that Wagner Mercs wouldn’t be arrested if they diasarmed.

    Uh-huh. Worked fine for Ukraine and Nukes.

    They really can’t be that stupid, can they?

    Notice I didn’t define the “they” here.

  13. 13.

    Alison Rose

    @Adam L Silverman: Part of me is morbidly curious how someone could be homophobic over this post, but I have a theory and also I don’t want to get any more irritated than I already am. Thank you for taking out the trash.

  22. 22.

    Dangerman

    @Jay: I’ll be hurting Missy’s feelings, but, on a cold Bay Area Night (meaning, almost all of them), Ghirardelli (sp?) Hot Chocolate goes down well.

    ETA: I shouldn’t diss the Bay Area; went to a waterfront show in Seattle, July 2nd, Nanci Griffith (RIP), backed by a symphony, and it was so cold and wet the symphony had to leave for fear of harming their instruments. I was pondering hypothermia on July 2nd.  Last summer living in Seattle (left soon thereafter). That and 5 hours stuck in an ice storm on I5 in downtown Seattle had me fleeing ASAP.

    ETA2: Nanci tossed the setlist and put on one of her best shows I saw of hers (saw her around 10 times).

  24. 24.

    Geminid

    A Reuters/Ipso poll released today shows increasing American popular support for Ukraine:

        The two-day poll that was concluded on Tuesday showed a sharp rise in backing for arming Ukraine, with 65% of respondents approving of the shipments compared with 46% in a May poll.

    Eighty-one per cent of Democrats, 56% of Republicans  and 57% of independents favor supplying U.S weapons to Ukraine, according to the latest poll.

  25. 25.

    bbleh

    @zhena gogolia: Re Surovikin, he’s reputed to be one of the more effective (and brutal) Russian commanders, yes?  One wonders whether, perhaps, all the US press about him maybe having been informed ahead of time about Progozhin, maybe being sympathetic, yada yada, might include a soupçon of dezinformatsiya?  I can certainly imagine the web-spinners of the US IC rubbing their hands over the chance to misinform, misdirect, undermine, and generally scare the Putin regime, given the latter’s blatant interference in our domestic politics.

    @Roger Moore: same thought occurred.

  28. 28.

    bbleh

    @Omnes Omnibus: and don’t even get me started about their pathetic attempts at lederhosen!

    adding: oddly (though not surprising when considered historically) they make great “oriental” rugs.

  29. 29.

    Jay

    @Dangerman:

    Wimp,

    worked in the Bay area in the late 70’s as a bicycle messenger on a single speed Schwinn, in a t-shirt and shorts, even in winter.

    If you are going to diss the Bay area, stick to the fact that everything is uphill. Even Berkeley.

  30. 30.

    Roger Moore

    @Dangerman:

    Swiss are amoral pieces of shit bankers (redundant?).

    Not redundant.  Banks can fulfill important functions in our communities, and bankers who do that kind of work are doing something important and beneficial.  They’re very different from the kind who help criminals launder their ill-gotten gains.

  32. 32.

    Another Scott

    Perhaps unsurprisingly russia is still a 16th century society/economy in some ways…

    Long (20+ post) thread:

    1/ THREAD on the bureaucratic and logistical issues encountered by Russian drone developers, especially those who wish to build their UAVs for the military – from a Russian-language Telegram channel. Main points below. https://t.co/H7Wq2irBAG pic.twitter.com/fS1q20kz2A

    — Samuel Bendett (@sambendett) June 28, 2023

    Just amazing.

    (via OSINTtechnical)

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    @bbleh:

    for me, the key to a good hot chocolate or mociatto, is the surroundings. Snow falling, fire in the woodstove, back in the day, cats and dogs on my lap,

    Day 8 of steady rain, on the Marimachi, canoe trip, so instead of the stew pot cooking fenel over a wood fire, a huge pot of hot chocolate,

    Or sitting on a log, on the banks of the Chehalis,  sipping hocho out of a thermos, watching a 2lb mink just under my feet, try to steal the 12lb coho salmon I had just caught.

  36. 36.

    oldster

    One thing that puzzles me a bit about Surovikin’s reported arrest:

    He was the head of the Air Force. And the Air Force was the only part of the ruzzian state military that put up a any meaningful resistance to the Wagner incursion/dash/mutiny.

    Somebody sent a few dozen planes up into the air with orders to use helicopters and bombs against the convoy. Somebody sent up a rare command/sig-int fixed wing plane to monitor their progress.  We know this, because the Wagner thugs shot down a lot of equipment and killed nearly a dozen pilots.

    If Surovikin was in cahoots with Prigozhin, then who was giving the orders here?

    I don’t raise this as an objection to anything — given the variety of reports, I am willing to believe that Surovikin really has been arrested. It’s just a general puzzle to me about who was in command and how the command structure worked.

  37. 37.

    bbleh

    @Jay: gotta watch those minks! All beautiful and sleek they are, but really they’re just a bunch of well-dressed weasels!

  38. 38.

    Andrya

    @bbleh:

     Re Surovikin, he’s reputed to be one of the more effective (and brutal) Russian commanders, yes?  One wonders whether, perhaps, all the US press about him maybe having been informed ahead of time about Progozhin, maybe being sympathetic, yada yada, might include a soupçon of dezinformatsiya?  I can certainly imagine the web-spinners of the US IC rubbing their hands over the chance to misinform, misdirect, undermine, and generally scare the Putin regime, given the latter’s blatant interference in our domestic politics.

    When I read about Surovikin, I immediately thought of the US shooting down Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto’s plane in 1943.  This was partly revenge for Pearl Harbor, but even more because the US Navy thought (correctly) that Yamamoto was much more strategically gifted/competent than the other Japanese admirals- they wanted him removed from the war.

  40. 40.

    The Moar You Know

    I suspect Switzerland believes the Russians will be grateful for their neutrality when they invade Europe and will simply detour around their fine nation and punish everyone else.

    Good luck with that.

  42. 42.

    Dangerman

    @Jay: Wimp

    Guilty. Though I prefer Wuss (Wimpy Wuss?).

    3rd Generation SoCal person. I used to have “races” at blood donations. Undefeated. My blood is thin (now, on blood thinners, it’s ridiculous).

  45. 45.

    oldster

    Speaking of JFK jr, that loathsome toad —

    I have been amused at the fanbois raving over his physique, when I have also seen him attempting to do 10 pushups and stalling out at 8 and a half.

    He is clearly using a lot of gender-affirming care, i.e. testosterone shots. Any 70 y.o. who had those muscles by honest means would be able to do 10 pushups with ease. But if you get your pecs out of a syringe, and don’t put the real work in at the gym, then you’re going to wind up like him — a facade with no functional strength behind it.

  50. 50.

    Roger Moore

    @Jay: ​
     
    My personal favorite hot chocolate memory is getting to Mesa Arch an hour and a half before dawn to take pictures, only to find a whole photography workshop parked out at all the best spots. I squeezed in at the very end of their line because that was the only spot left. It was bitterly cold, as you might expect of predawn Utah in late October, but my traveling companion had brought hot chocolate, so I was able to enjoy something hot to drink while all the other photographers who had claimed “better” spots complained about the cold. Once the sun started to come up, I was able to get this picture.

  52. 52.

    HumboldtBlue

    Peter Tesch on Putin’s current political standing in Russia.

    Despite the perils of political forecasting in relation to Russia, some early outlines are evident.

    First, Russia’s political landscape has changed fundamentally, with Putin’s uncontested reign over. His hitherto unquestioned authority is compromised, perhaps fatally. Facing the constitutional requirement to declare in November if he is running for re-election as president in March 2024, he now is damaged goods, and badly damaged at that.

    As the capo di tutti i capi—‘boss of all bosses’—Putin has ruled for 23 years without challenge. The ultimate bestower of largesse, the man who both giveth and taketh away, he has refined an inherited system of patronage and persecution, ensuring that no member of the elite (each anointed by him) could gain power and influence in more than one area. The siloviki—those sprung from Putin’s own intelligence and security background—were played off against the uber-wealthy business elite oligarchs, in turn being balanced by those with their technocratic hands on the levers of government. Putin has been the final arbiter of all decisions of any note in a system that has become completely personalised around him.

    Now, one of his own—albeit an outsider he brought into his sanctum—has turned on him, exposing the brittleness of the Kremlin’s Byzantine system. That will reinforce the misgivings that others clearly feel about Putin’s ability to steer Russia into the future by seeking to recreate its long-lost, and unrecoverable, imperial past. The incontestable failure of Putin’s personal war in Ukraine underscores these doubts.

  53. 53.

    James E Powell

    @oldster:

    RFK Jr. JFK Jr is the QAnon Messiah.

    Speaking of which. I watched the RFK documentary that is on Netflix. I do not know if it just showed up there or if it’s been there a while. There was quite a bit of video I had never seen before.

    Anyway, brought back memories. I was 13 when RFK was murdered. He was the first politician I thought of as a hero. Watching the documentary brought back memories of myself & the country in 1968. I remember watching the funeral train on TV with my family, all of us crying.

    I know that there are some who do not think well of him & he was not as liberal as his posthumous reputation. But he was a stronger candidate than Humphrey and I believe he would have beat Nixon. (It’s speculation, so it can work out however I want!)

    He would have been a much better president than Nixon.

  54. 54.

    Andrya

    @oldster:  Don’t you mean RFK Jr.?   JFK Jr. died young (in 1999- age 38) in a plane crash.  He certainly never reached the age of 70, or anything close to that.  I’m not aware of any reason anyone should call him a “loathsome toad”.

    I have been baffled by the way Q-Anon types seem to believe that he returned from the dead to support Trump, but there is nothing in his life to support that.

    And, toads are not loathsome.  Like all animals, they have their place.

  55. 55.

    Another Scott

    @Adam L Silverman:

    RFK Jr deleted this tweet ad because it turns out he photoshopped his logo on a stock photo of a Russian woman on a Russian street. Why is it always Russia? They never use stock photos of Iowa or Idaho or Utah. pic.twitter.com/m84pEl4BeH

    — Helen Kennedy (@HelenKennedy) June 28, 2023

    It is kinda funny, isn’t it?

    (Dunno if she’s closely related (she’s the newspaper reporter, not the Canadian politician).)

    (via CherylRofer)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  56. 56.

    bbleh

    @Adam L Silverman: ?!??! Of course it has.  Entirely open-source, and probably within minutes!

    It does raise the question, what’s gonna replace Twitter.

    Whatever, it’s all getting too Robert Ludlum for me.  I’m gonna go hide under my bed …

  57. 57.

    Chetan Murthy

    @HumboldtBlue: This is why I simply reject any theories of Prigo setting up a sizable Wagner force in Belarus.  Like Putin would permit that shit,  *manical giggle*  Prigo should be counting his days and moving his family to the West (the only (albeit not enough) safe place for them).  Putin doesn’t forgive and he doesn’t forget, and he’ll be out for blood,  to show anybody else who might take a run at the King that it’s a suicidal move.

    And hey, I’m here for all of it.  Got my organic popcorn kernels all ready.

  58. 58.

    oldster

    @Andrya:

    I do indeed mean RFK jr, not JFK — my mistake, which I’ll correct above.

    I do not generally loathe toads, and I have had some pleasant interactions with them, tête-a-tête and toad-a-toad. But many people do loathe them, and they are a traditional object of loathing. That’s how turns of phrase work.

    [drat — I am too late to edit the earlier comment. Ah well, my mistake will have to stand, and I am grateful to Andrya for correcting it.]

  64. 64.

    bbleh

    @Steeplejack: I fantasize about one detailing how much is parked in American real estate, itemized by seller/developer, very much including TFG.

  66. 66.

    Another Scott

    @Steeplejack: There was some information in the 2016 Panama Papers. Swissinfo.ch:

    One of the people exposed in the fallout is Sergei Roldugin, a close friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin. As reported by the Swiss newspaper Tages-Anzeiger, Roldugin stashed millions at the Zurich branch of Russian financial institution Gazprombank – money that he’s unlikely to have earned as a professional cellist and conductor.

    “The records show Roldugin is a behind-the-scenes player in a clandestine network operated by Putin associates that has shuffled at least $2 billion through banks and offshore companies,” according to the ICIJ, German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung and other media partners.

    Roldugin is listed as the owner of offshore companies that have obtained payments from other companies worth tens of millions of dollars.

    “A company linked to the cellist also grabbed secret influence over Russia’s largest truck maker, another snagged a big slice of Russia’s TV advertising industry. It’s possible Roldugin, who has publicly claimed not to be a businessman, is not the true beneficiary of these riches. Instead, the evidence in the files suggests Roldugin is acting as a front man for a network of Putin loyalists – and perhaps for Putin himself.”

    I’m sure YoYo has a few hundred billion stashed away, just like Beyonce…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  67. 67.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Another Scott: I think Ken had it right in a downstairs thread. If they used a photo from an American stock agency they’d have to pay for it, or get a cease-and-desist pretty quickly. Use a russian stock photo without paying, and you’re good to go.

  68. 68.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: One would like to think that … RFK Jr: he’s rich enough to pay decent graphic artists who would, y’know, at least use some AI to remove the Cyrillic and replace it with English?  I mean, how hard would that be? [right: one would be wrong, b/c the rich didn’t get that way by paying people decent wages]

  69. 69.

    oldster

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Non-zero chance that his comms and PR shop simply *is* staffed by ruzzian nationals? Or that ruzzian comms shop is sending him promotional material that his team is not smart enough to vet and proofread?

  71. 71.

    Ruckus

    @oldster:

    As someone a bit older than that POS who no one believes is as old as I am I agree with you 1000%. That much would be rather difficult to build at 70 yrs old. Someone who has had them at a younger age  and worked hard to keep them maybe. Otherwise it’s just not the way a normal human body works. And sure there are always exceptions. But muscles to that level and then to watch him do a few pushups and he looks tired?

  77. 77.

    Sebastian

    @The Moar You Know:

    The Russians couldn’t take Kyiv and if by some miracle they succeed in the future they’d have to face the Poles, who are eager to pay back Russia.

    “Theoretically”, Russians could take a shortcut through Hungary and Austria but that would be hell of a logistics line.

  79. 79.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Sebastian: I saw a Polish government official (forget who, which post) interviewed on TV,  saying that if Ukraine did not prevail in this war, Poland would be forced to enter on their side.  There is no way, no way Poland is going to give Russia time to digest Ukraine and rearm, if by some horrific happenstance they win.  No way.

  81. 81.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Another Scott: This was my thought exactly. Nothing that the Swiss government does is mysterious, at the end of the day, if one only Follows The Money.

    The way to change their behavior is to poison the bad money, by making it repel good money. Which is to say, Switzerland needs to start being treated as a financial bad actor by Western finance ministries. As in, subjected to penalties bordering (and perhaps even encroaching on) financial sanctions for providing sanctuary to criminal funds under the fig leaf of “banking secrecy.” When they perceive the side that their bread is buttered on, they will certainly come around.

  82. 82.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Zelenskyy:

    I met with Chief Master Sergeant of the 47th separate mechanized brigade “Magura” Valerii Markus. We talked about the war, our warriors, and our defense.

    We also discussed the reform of record keeping in military structures. Less paperwork and bureaucracy, more digitalization. We discussed the reform of the sergeant corps. It was a good conversation. Thank you for the chevrons!

    The development of the UA Western-style NCO Corps is potentially a force multiplier comparable to provision of any advanced weapons system. Adam, if you should happen to find some good information on how that is going, I’d love to read about it.

  85. 85.

    Calouste

    @Another Scott: A friend of mine who knows a lot of Russians told me that a lot about that country can be explained by Russia going more or less straight from serfdom to communism and skipping the Enlightenment.

  88. 88.

    Ruckus

    @Another Scott:

    And Jack LaLanne did look and was even more muscular when he was younger. As I am on the verge of 74 yrs old, worked physical jobs (not that physical but still) my entire 60+ yr working life, still walk regular but not as much as I used to do, and no one that sees me thinks I’m as old as I am, you don’t get to look like he does when you are this old. Your body just doesn’t make muscle like that any longer.

  89. 89.

    Ruckus

    @Carlo Graziani:

    As someone who was an NCO while in the USN I can say that having that structure was one of the things that made it work. Not one of the officers had a clue about doing the scut work of keeping a ship running. I was on a ship that was less than 10 yrs old, we had equipment that I’d been trained to operate and repair and that equipment was transistorized, the school I attended didn’t have any – did tell us we might see it if the ship was new enough. Today? It has to be a hell of lot different than half a century ago. Technology is what makes the USN work and I just visited one at fleet week here in LA harbor within the last month or so, and the technology is a hell of a lot more than it was in my day. The structure of the US military is one thing that makes it work because it is not technology backasswards and a big deal in making that work is NCOs.

  90. 90.

    Matt McIrvin

    @Calouste: The odd thing about Communism is that Marx imagined it as succeeding the rich industrialized capitalist societies of the West– that was the whole idea– but it seemed to be most attractive in places that never really went through that phase, as a successor to something like feudal autocracy.

  92. 92.

    OverTwistWillie

    Surovikin was done when he let the units on the right bank try and get out before the bridges got blown.

    Master Strategist wants all to be sacrificed for the greater glory of Master Strategist.

  93. 93.

    charon

    Just posted:

    https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1674422450585731074

    There’s a lot of speculation around the situation with Prigozhin and Wagner, so let’s clarify what we know so far:

    1️⃣ Prigozhin has been exiled to Belarus. The specifics of his future are currently under Putin’s consideration. Lukashenko has hinted at the temporary nature of Prigozhin’s stay, indicating a lack of interest to permanently host such individuals, but it’s likely that there will be no choice and he will have to. Without diving into speculation about the exact arrangements, the apparent aim is to neutralise Prigozhin, ‘lock him up’ outside of Russia, and the next steps will unfold with time.

    2️⃣ Wagner is being separated from Prigozhin, signaling an end to Wagner as it was previously known. There will be a dissection of the organisation: some parts will be removed, some taken, and others dismantled. This concerns Africa and Syria too. The Foreign Ministry is already actively participating in this. Wagner’s involvement varied widely, so the Kremlin (read MFA, SVR and GRU) will vet Wagner’s operatives, their resources, and audit their presence, seeking whether a presence is necessary at all. We won’t see a Wagner 2.0, at least the way it was.

    3️⃣ I don’t expect a purge in the style of Stalin; that’s not Putin’s approach. His perspective splits individuals into heroes, traitors (who face severe consequences), or lost souls who may be pardoned if they repent in time. Arrests are possible within this framework, but figures like Surovikin are less likely to be targeted. The challenge here is that Putin isn’t the same as before, and there are influential figures with their own agendas, like Sergei Shoigu, who may be interested in eliminating internal opposition. So final fate of Surovikin is unclear.

    More at linky.

  94. 94.

    The Pale Scot

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Switzerland needs to start being treated as a financial bad actor by Western finance ministries.

    SW and RU need to be declared terrorist states, which will make all their enterprises verboten for the rest of the world.

  95. 95.

    Chetan Murthy

    @The Pale Scot: s/SW/CH/ I think.  But in any case, it’ll never happen, and part of why, is that the US is a massive bad actor in this regard, too.  There are so many places that protect offshore wealth, and they’re all bad actors. [substitute “UK” for US in the above, and it’s still true.]

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