Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

You can’t love your country only when you win.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Second rate reporter says what?

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Let’s finish the job.

Don’t expect peaches from an apple tree.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Not all heroes wear capes.

I was confident that someone would point it out and thought why not me.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself.

“Why isn’t this Snickers bar only a nickle?”

This blog will pay for itself.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

“Squeaker” McCarthy

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

T R E 4 5 O N

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 516: Odesa and Her Granaries Remain Russia’s Targets of Choice

War for Ukraine Day 516: Odesa and Her Granaries Remain Russia’s Targets of Choice

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: I’m going to cover a bit of what is going on in Israel at the end of this post. The Bottom Line Up Front from a nat-sec is that imagine if the majority of JSOC, the US Navy, US Marine Corps, and US Army Aviators all resigned effective immediately and significant portions of the Intelligence Community, both ops and analysis, were threatening to do so as well. Right now Israel couldn’t deter a girl scout troupe. While I hope it does not happen, I expect Iran to attack sooner rather than later.

Russia continues to bombard civilian targets in Odesa. Including the granaries and food warehouses.

russian terrorists continue their war on grain. Last night, they attacked the grain infrastructure on the Danube River with Shaheds. Three drones were shot down by air defense. Unfortunately, as a result of the attack, six people were injured and a grain hangar and cargo storage tanks were destroyed.

The solution to this problem is actually quite simple: a couple of well placed Patriot batteries.

The simple math of war. The issue of protecting the key grain export port of Reni on the border with Romania (NATO) is one additional Patriot or SAMP/T system that will immediately go into operation, as the Ukrainian military knows how to work with these systems. The issue of protecting the historic center of Odesa and the Black Sea ports, which are strategically important for the Global South, is virtually the same. The value to global markets of losing these ports is thousands of times greater than the cost of just two missile defense systems. Conclusions? They are obvious.

Of course the issue here is getting the US or one of our allies to send a couple of more Patriot batteries and the ammo for them into theater ASAP.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Russia must lose every day – that’s fair – address by the President of Ukraine

24 July 2023 – 21:22

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report on this day.

I held a special format of the Staff meeting. We focused mostly on frontline issues.

There were reports from the Commander-in-Chief, the commanders of the main directions, and the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Maximum attention is paid to those areas where we are moving forward and those where Ukrainian forces are on the defensive. In all areas, the first task is to destroy the occupiers, their equipment, supplies, warehouses, and headquarters as much as possible. Russia must lose every day – that’s fair. And I thank all our warriors who ensure this: all our soldiers, sailors, petty officers, sergeants, officers and generals. It is very important that our defense and security forces, our entire state, work as a single team for the sake of defense.

At the Staff meeting, of course, we also thoroughly discuss all issues related to protection against Russian missile and drone terror. Protection of our people, our cities, our ports, the Black Sea grain corridor. We are preparing powerful responses to Russian terrorists’ attacks.

I also held several political meetings, in particular on the European Union and our integration. This year we are to start negotiations on membership. Ukraine is fully prepared for this – we are doing what is necessary on our part. And we are doing everything possible to ensure that the EU is also fully prepared. Exactly this year.

I also held a major meeting with government officials and our experts on international relations on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products through the territory of European countries. There is a very important agreement with the European Commission regarding September 15, which is the last day of restrictions on our grain exports, and we believe that the European side will fulfill its obligations on this date, when the temporary restrictions will cease to be in effect. Any extension of the restrictions is absolutely unacceptable and outright non-European. Europe has the institutional capacity to act more rationally than to close a border for a particular product. We are working very actively with everyone to find a solution that is in line with the spirit of our Europe.

And one more thing.

Occasionally, once a month, I send a special letter of gratitude to those warriors who have distinguished themselves on the frontline. Last week, I sent such a written gratitude to our glorious 56th Mariupol separate motorized infantry brigade. To all its warriors and brigade commanders. And today I received the chevron of the 56th brigade – it is already here in my office, on the board with other chevrons. And a flag signed by the guys.

Thank you very much, warriors! Thank you very much, heroes!

Glory to all who fight for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who makes Ukraine stronger!

Glory to Ukraine!

Odesa:

Bakhmut:

Vuhledar Axis:

 

Khakovka Reservoir:

Russian Occupied Donbas:

RELEASE THE BABUSHKAS!!!!

Or it could have been one of these:

Vilne, Russian Occupied Crimea:

Moscow:

Well this would explain some of the logistics issues that have slowed down the attempts to arm and resupply Ukraine:

I’m going to leave the Ukraine update there for tonight for a couple of items on Israel.

First, my go to reporters and analysts are Noga Tarnopolsky, Anshel Pfeffer, Ronan Bergman, and Barak Ravid.

Earlier today Bibi’s coalition rammed through on a 64-0 vote – the opposition all walked out in protest once the negotiations on a compromise broke down – the first of the judicial reform laws. Israel does not have a written/formal constitution, which, quite frankly, is a good thing. Instead they have the Basic Laws, which function as a de facto Bill of Rights and constitution. The Israeli Supreme Court is a High Court of Justice. It is both the last court of appeal for criminal and civil matters and it is also the final say over whether something is constitutional. And constitutional means in line with the Basic Laws.

That blue water coming out of the water cannons is skunk water. It isn’t just colored, it is liquid that has been treated with a chemical to produce a putrid, foul smell. It was invented by an Israeli company and, up till now, used on the Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank. The BBC has a description:

Police departments in the United States are reported to have bought a foul-smelling liquid developed in Israel to repel protesters. What is “skunk” and how is it used, asks Yolande Knell.

It is a truly putrid stench. Palestinians who have been sprayed describe it as “worse than raw sewage” and “like a mixture of excrement, noxious gas and a decomposing donkey”.

Invented by Israeli firm Odortec, skunk water was first used by the Israeli military against demonstrators in the occupied West Bank in 2008. Since then armoured vehicles equipped with water cannon spraying jets of the stinky liquid have become a regular sight.

Although it may induce a gagging reflex, the company says skunk is made from “100% food-grade ingredients” and is “100% eco-friendly – harmless to both nature and people”.

The secret recipe includes yeast, baking powder and water, which sounds innocent enough. But the scent can linger on skin and in the environment for days, sometimes longer.

“Once I was trapped against a wall and covered head to toe in skunk,” a Palestinian photographer says.

“Afterwards my car stank and my wife made me undress outside the house. One of my cameras was destroyed and the rest of my kit still smells.”

A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told the BBC that skunk is “an effective, non-lethal, riot dispersal means” that can reduce the risk of casualties. The police, too, describe it as a “humane” option.

Tear gas and rubber bullets are regularly used against angry crowds, and sometimes even live ammunition.

Lovely.

FIRE! Ready. Aim!

Here’s some analysis from Barak Ravid explaining exactly what is going:

What we’re seeing now is the same tactics, techniques, and procedures that Israel’s security forces first developed to deal with the Palestinians and then refined under the exceedingly long rule of Netanyahu in ever more extreme governments turned onto Israelis. Specifically and including Jewish Israelis, who are the representative average Israeli.

Barhano Tagnia claims that the demonstrators in Tel Aviv are confronting the police even though they see live images from the demonstration in Tel Aviv in which no confrontation is seen. What is up?

Ravid’s tweet machine translates as:

Perhaps it was these confrontations that Brahanu Tagnia was talking about

And Neira Kraus’s machine translates as:

Crazy documentation of police violence: Taking aside a protester. catch with the legs. When he is lying on the floor and helpless they start punching. And to hide from the cameras – the policemen stand in a wall that will hide the violence. Everything is live. @Meir_Marciano

I’ve seen dozens and dozens of videos of demonstrations and of the Israeli police and security forces trying to brutally suppress them. Don’t let anyone fool you, these demonstrations are not a sign or indicator of a healthy democracy. Rather, they are an indicator of a state that has been and is still being dragged into authoritarianism; in this case Jewish theocratic extremism in exchange for keeping Bibi’s tuchas out of prison. There is no going back to what Israel was this morning or a month ago or last year. That Israel no longer exists. What remains to be seen is what Israel actually emerges from this. Or if Israel can even survive its now weakened state in terms of its hostile neighbors.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Well played!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

79Comments

  2. 2.

    Captain C

    @Yutsano:

    *boops Patron’s snoot*

    Also too, fuck Bibi.

    Both seconded.

    And thanks Adam, both for the 500+ Ukraine updates (one of my go-tos for what’s happening there) and today’s Israel update (is there any way to pull Bibi back or is he, like Trump, willing to sacrifice everyone else to stay out of [richly deserved] jail?).

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    Just a quick note: in order to ensure that I can see Bluesky for when more and more of the sources I use for these updates migrate there, I asked BettyC if she’d give me one of her invites. Which she graciously did. This is my account: @silvermansecurity.bsky.social, the nym/handle is, of course, Silverman on Security, and the image is the Spy V Spy logo Watergirl did up for me for my posts here. I do NOT have a twitter account, did not want one, and do not want one. I have no idea how much or little I’ll post on Bluesky, but that’s my account.

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    While I hope it does not happen, I expect Iran to attack sooner rather than later.

    EVERYTHING IS GREAT. Oy. Israel is already basically the last topic I ever want to discuss, and now even more so. This is all kind of scary and upsetting for about a dozen reasons. But also, fuck Bibi and every POS in his coterie.

    Ukrainian grannies continue to rule. As do all Ukrainian women.

    Thank you as always, Adam. I wish it weren’t your lot in life to keep us informed about terrible things, but I’m grateful you’re here to do it.

  5. 5.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Captain C: At this point Bibi has no control. His extremist coalition partners threatened to not just bring down the coalition government, but destroy the country this morning if the compromise negotiations continued, resulted in a compromise, and/or led to another delay. Bibi is now Dr. Frankenstein being chased across the ice floes by the monster of his own creation!

  6. 6.

    Jerzy Russian

    Skunk water.  Lord Jesus Christ in a Crosswalk.   If you think about it, literal shit at some point is made from food-grade material.  Even though shit can be “all natural” and made from safe ingredients, I wouldn’t want to be covered in shit.

  7. 7.

    BR

    It seems like we’re at the point in the global story where the authoritarian forces are making their move. In Europe, despite a worse than expected showing, the right won the election in Spain, has been in charge in the UK for a while, is rising in Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland, France, and elsewhere. Here we’ve got our own mess, and are exporting it to Canada and other parts of the anglosphere.
    The only part of the story that confuses me is what happens when the authoritarians who are in charge in one country butt heads with others rather than working together as they have for the last decade. Poland is butting heads with Russia — they’re both right wing and anti-pluralist governments, but also seem to be opposed. Same with UK and Russia. Even within the old Soviet bloc there’s inter-country tension.
    It seems there’s no way out but through. What I’m wondering is which country will turn a corner first. My guess is that countries that most recently had authoritarian governments / dictatorships but have since had stable democracies will not go for it. But others will because their last experience of dictatorship has fallen out of living memory.​

  8. 8.

    El Cruzado

    @BR: You can check most of world history before the XXth century for your answers. It’s not pretty.

  9. 9.

    Captain C

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Bibi is now Dr. Frankenstein being chased across the ice floes by the monster of his own creation!

    This article by Anshel Pfeffer says he’s made himself the weakest Israeli PM ever.  It wasn’t clear on what Bibi’s partners threatened; how exactly would they destroy Israel?  I won’t ask why; it’s as pointless as asking why Republicans ally with Putin beyond the fact that they’re selfish, racist @$$holes.

  10. 10.

    cain

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Fuck around and Find out. Unfortunately, this is bad for global politics. So I’m not sure what is going to happen. I don’t understand your Iran comment – why would Iran attack at this point given these new judicial rules.

    Also what is the new judicial rules? From what I gather, they are going to treat Israelis like they treat Palestinians. So the gun is now pointing at themselves.

    This timeline continues to produce incredulity in spades.

  11. 11.

    cain

    I don’t think skunk water is going to work well here in the U.S. There are too many bystanders, but as well it could easily hit other cops and so on. Never mind, nobody wants their public spaces smelling like shit – the local businesses will have a shit fit.

  12. 12.

    trollhattan

    Just saw this.

    MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA
    56m

    BREAKING 👀👀👀 The IAEA found anti-personnel mines at the ZNPP, which are located in the buffer zone between the internal and external perimeter of the plant. The IAEA still requires access to the roofs of the ZNPP, including units 3 and 4, “which are of special interest.”
    Jul 24, 2023 · 9:27 PM UTC

    Had not realized IAEA was on site.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    @cain:

    Also what is the new judicial rules? From what I gather, they are going to treat Israelis like they treat Palestinians. So the gun is now pointing at themselves.

    The Supreme Court was the the final arbiter of what was and was not “legal” based on precedent and The Basic Law.

    Now it’s not, The Knesset is.

  14. 14.

    Commenting at Balloon Juice since 1937

    You reap what you sow. Why aren’t there new Israeli politicians? I’ve been hearing the same names for decades.  The rot seems to be baked in.

  15. 15.

    Roger Moore

    @cain: ​
     
    I don’t think the police will worry about bystanders or businesses; they don’t seem to have worried too much about those in previous riots. The risk of hitting each other might give them second thoughts.

  16. 16.

    cain

    @Jay: oh shit! So they’ve basically defunded the Supreme Court – that’s going to go off the rails.

  18. 18.

    cain

    @Roger Moore: The blowback is going to be pretty bad – I’m not sure even the police union is going to be able to deal. I suppose when the police chief gets it.

    I see them using it against minorities in minority dominated neighborhoods.

  19. 19.

    coin operated

    @cain:

    I don’t understand your Iran comment – why would Iran attack at this point given these new judicial rules.

    Because hundreds of reserve IDF officers, many of them the most senior and experienced in their respective units, threatened to resign en-masse if this bill was passed and they are doing exactly that.  Going to leave a large hole in readiness if Iran decided to get frisky…

    punctuation edit…

  21. 21.

    Gin & Tonic

    “Vilne “ (see Crimea Tweets) means “free” – as in liberty, not price.

  22. 22.

    Chetan Murthy

    What we’re seeing now is the same tactics, techniques, and procedures that Israel’s security forces first developed to deal with the Palestinians and then refined under the exceedingly long rule of Netanyahu in ever more extreme governments turned onto Israelis. Specifically and including Jewish Israelis, who are the representative average Israeli.

    Hannah Arendt (IIRC) wrote that “Fascism is the methods and tools of Imperialism, brought back and applied in the metropole.”  Israel is enduring the beginnings of Fascism.

  24. 24.

    BR

    Also, thinking about this new more, this adds to the list of unstable/formerly-democratic, authoritarian states with nuclear weapons. India, Pakistan, Russia, and now Israel.

  25. 25.

    JaySinWA

    @coin operated: I would expect that would end, reverse or invalidate the resignations. The window of disunity would probably close fairly quickly if Israel is attacked from outside. If Iran has restraint, the longer this holds out the better for their interests, I would think.

  27. 27.

    oldster

    Among students of 20th century fascism, there is general agreement that many of the countries in Europe show a common pattern:

    Troops who were sent out to police the colonies by brutal and inhuman violence on the colonized people then come home and form the shock-troops of the new fascist movement at home.

    It played out this way with Germany, Spain, France, Italy, and so on. The same troops who were deployed to Southwest Africa or to Ethiopia or where have you, came back and formed the core of the fascist movement, inflicting the same kind of violence. On their fellow-citizens, only these fellow Germans, Spaniards, and so on were now denounced as communists, anarchists, atheists and any other name that would justify colonial violence.

    Any student of this phenomenon, looking at Israel’s treatment of Palestine, would predict the same evolution of affairs. The very same troops and tactics that were developed for oppressing the Palestinians are now turned on Israelis themselves.

    The only surprise, actually, and the only optimistic spot in the picture, is the fact that many of the regular military forces are saying “no” to the authoritarian take-over. I hope they will succeed in bringing it to a halt

    ETA:  …and while I was typing, Chetan Murthy said it better than I did, and with the classic quote to illustrate it.

  28. 28.

    Andrya

    @JaySinWA:   I hope you’re right, but this is my thinking-  restraint would be in the best interests of the Iranian people and state, but not necessarily in the best interests of the Iranian regime.  At this point the regime must know that a large majority of Iranians, especially young people, have had it up to here with the regime.  I fear the regime might think they can generate a “rally round the flag” response by attacking Israel.   I think they would be mistaken- I think the Iranian citizens’ revulsion at the regime is beyond fixing at this point- but they might try.

  30. 30.

    Andrya

    @Chetan Murthy:  @oldster:   Even the Holocaust had its colonial predecessor, in the genocide of the Herrero (by Germany) in the first decade of the 20th century.  Hermann Goering’s father played a part in setting up the conditions for the genocide, though he had left Africa by the time the genocide occurred.

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: If Iran takes advantage & attack Israel (perhaps via a proxy), wouldn’t that just cause a circling of the wagons w/in Israel, to the benefit of Bibi & his right wing Fascist allies?

    Reactionaries everywhere really are each other’s best allies, even among mortal enemies.

  32. 32.

    oldster

    @Andrya:

    Yup. Case in point.

    And when the Israeli riot police are taking Israeli protesters out of the crowd and beating them to a pulp, they are only doing what they have done for decades with the Palestinians.

    It is such a tragedy. The Israel of Golda Meir, the second great beacon of hope in my youth, turned to this.

  33. 33.

    JaySinWA

    @Andrya: Perhaps, but Iran’s past seems more covert action with deniability. Do they have a viable military to make an overt strike or threat of one?

    OTOH Netanyahu could use a boogeyman right now so a real or fabricated external attack could bolster his (or his cohort’s) control. Anything that could be construed as an attack on the state from outside could be used to defang the protesters and rally around the flag. So I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised if something happens that is blamed on an external force.

  34. 34.

    cain

    @BR: Right wingers always need enemies. So yeah, there is going to be a lot of stupid shit that is going to be produced. In the meanwhile, there will be all kinds of disruptive technologies like AI coming in.

    I suppose media will be well paid to cover this stuff.

  35. 35.

    cain

    @coin operated: Because hundreds of reserve IDF officers, many of them the most senior and experienced in their respective units, threatened to resign en-masse if this bill was passed and they are doing exactly that. Going to leave a large hole in readiness if Iran decided to get frisky…

     

    That would be a dumb move on their part. When your enemy is going through shit – they wont’ have time to focus on you – so that means you can be doing other things. Attacking Israel would at the bottom of the things.

    You’d unite the entire country against a common enemy – and with their new laws it would turn it into a pretty feral place with little to hold it back.

  36. 36.

    cain

    @JaySinWA:

    @coin operated: I would expect that would end, reverse or invalidate the resignations. The window of disunity would probably close fairly quickly if Israel is attacked from outside. If Iran has restraint, the longer this holds out the better for their interests, I would think.

    Hell this would be a good time to fuck with them and do some good will gestures.

  38. 38.

    Subsole

    Two very small thoughts:

    1. I imagine stinking to high heaven makes it very, very easy for the plainclothes men to pick you out a few days after the protests.

    2. First they do it for you, then they do it to you. Amazing how easily and consistently we forget that little lesson.

  40. 40.

    Andrya

    @JaySinWA:  If the Iranian regime’s goal was simply to destroy Israel (as “enemies of G-d” or whatever) then a covert attack with deniability would make sense.   I do not give them that much credit.  I think, if given a choice between a) what’s best for the Iranian people  b) what’s best for the Iranian state  c) what’s best for worldwide Islam or d) what’s best for their political power and Swiss bank accounts, they would pick d) every time.  And a covert attack on Israel, then denied, would not help them consolidate power in Iran.

    Full disclosure:  although I am a (Christian) Islamophile, I hate the Iranian regime almost as much as I hate putin.  They have harmed Muslims far more than American Islamophobes ever did.

  42. 42.

    Bill Arnold

    @JaySinWA:

    OTOH Netanyahu could use a boogeyman right now so a real or fabricated external attack could bolster his (or his cohort’s) control.

    There is a pattern of attacks by Palestinian militants when Mr. B. Netanyahu is in political trouble.
    Speculation that there is an arrangement would be crass. (Either direct, or maybe with Iran! :-)

  43. 43.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Andrya: I have never met an Iranian who was not a truly lovely and decent person.  Uniformly so.  My last car’s mechanic is Iranian, and what a lovely man he is.  The current Iranian regime (like the last) has failed them unutterably.

  44. 44.

    Subsole

    @cain: I know nothing of Israel. But I know enough of conservatives to know that minority, alas, is a very flexible concept for conservapukes.

    My read from the far outside is that Netanyahu has finally achieved the hard right’s dream:

    “Never again.” now means “Never again. Offer valid only for True Patriotic Jews who live in Israel. Some terms and conditions may apply. Consult your Israel-based, Likud-approved hypertraditionalist Rabbi for details.

     

    Oh.

     

    You don’t have an Israel-based, Likud-approved, hypertrad Rabbi?

    Huh.

    How unfortunate.”

  45. 45.

    Andrya

    @Chetan Murthy:   Full disclosure:  my family is religiously eclectic, comprising atheists, Baha’is, Jews, Muslims, and one Christian (me).  Through my Baha’i relatives, I have met and connected with many Iranian Baha’is.  I could not agree more.

    Under Khomeini, being a Baha’i was in itself a capital offense- you could be executed just for being a Baha’i.  Khamenei has backed off just a little- no execution, but ferocious discrimination, including exclusion from the national educational system.

  46. 46.

    Chetan Murthy

    This was an interesting Geopol Decanted podcast episode.  Two things that stood out for me:

    1. the importance of jailbreaks, and that the most-recent quadcopter drones have not been jailbroken
    2. the reasons why Western governments (esp. the US) are not supplying COTS drones (which are, by Andrey’s estimation, far and away the best) to UA.  And hence, why almost all the supply is coming via NGOs and the soldiers themselves buying them.

    On the train ride back to Poland from Kyiv, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (President of Ukraine Defense Fund, a charity that provides non-lethal aid to the Ukrainian military) about how various types of drones are used for artillery correction, target identification and strike missions in Ukraine. They discuss why Chinese drones such as DJI Mavic and Matrice are superior to Western commercial alternatives, why Starlink is irreplaceable, why friendly fire is responsible for over half of commercial drone losses, and how electronic warfare is affecting drone navigation and communication and what countermeasures are being employed. Also, why developing jailbreaks for the latest DJI drone models is a critical need for the Ukrainian military.

    https://podcast.silverado.org/episodes/how-drones-are-changing-the-nature-of-warfare-in-ukraine

  47. 47.

    Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride

    @oldster: Unfortunately, Golda Meir deserves a major share of the blame for what Israel has become.  To the end of her life, she refused to recognize the existence of the Palestinian people, let alone the idea that they might have any rights within Israel.

  48. 48.

    Geminid

    @Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride: I am not sure if you are talking here about the Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank and blockaded Gaza, or the nearly 2 million Arab citizens of Israel proper. Your assertion is accurate with regard to the first group, but not true when it comes to the second.

  49. 49.

    sdhays

    @cain: They are still in negotiations to reestablish the nuclear deal. Russia isn’t in a position to back them up. Striking Israel would be extremely counterproductive for them.

    That doesn’t mean they won’t do it, but hopefully cooler heads prevail.

  50. 50.

    Andrya

    @Geminid:   In terms of the literal letter of Israeli law, your comment is true-  Arab citizens of Israel have the legal right to vote and other rights of citizenship.  However, in practice, Israel is a parliamentary democracy with a multitude of parties- and the only way for a minority party to affect political outcomes is to join a coalition.  Until 2021, there was an unwritten rule that no non-Arab Israeli political party would ever let an Arab party into their coalition (“better defeat than cooperating with the Arabs”).  In 2021  one Arab party, the Ra’am party, was allowed into a coalition.  Ra’am’s demand was more spending on Israeli Arabs (up till then very much neglected).  It remains to be seen if this makes a difference.

  51. 51.

    Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride

    @Geminid: Do you think she would ever have approved allowing Israeli Arabs to have any real say in how the country was run?  In her time, Labor would never have dreamed of letting Arab parties into a government coalition.

  52. 52.

    Geminid

    @Andrya: There were Arab parties in governing coalitions in the 1960s and 1970s, including Golda Meir’s. Ra’am’s participation in the recent Bennett-Lapid government was the first in decades, though.

    Interestingly, Ra’am increased its Knesset representation from 4 to 5MKs in the last election, which may indicate that its policy of participation was approved by some Israeli Arabs.

    And Wikipedia tells me that 20-30% of Israeli Arabs vote for Zionist parties like Labor. That is, of those who vote at all. Arab election participation lags behind that of Jewish Israelis, and may have been lower than usual in the last election.

    I was questioning the commenter because it seemed he might have been making a categorical statement about Israeli Arabs that was not well founded.

  53. 53.

    Geminid

    @Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride: Well, you said Meir did not believe that Arabs should have any rights. Now you are talking about political power which is a different thing. There were two Arab parties in Meir’s governing coalition, for what that’s worth.

  54. 54.

    Bill Arnold

    Gotta say, the ones (reportedly, Ukrainians) who delivered a loud hello to Fancy Bear made me smile.

    The headquarters of Fancy Bear and the entire military unit, which reportedly specializes in state-sponsored cyberattacks and decryption of hacked data[, were targeted by Ukrainian drones on July 24, 2023, the rooftop on one of the buildings collapsed as a result of the explosion.

    And a hat tip to whoever used that Portugal IP address to add that to the Wikipedia entry today,

  55. 55.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Yeah, I highly doubt the Chinese government will ever devote any energy to slow the sale of non-lethal supplies by Chinese companies to Russian entities.

    However, I think Ukraine has got far more than US$ 5M’s worth of commercial drones from China, given the ubiquity of DJI units in Ukrainian hands. Chinese vendors make up ~ 90% of the world’s commercial drone supply, DJI alone ~ 70%. Even the Ukrainian developed & built drones probably rely upon Chinese made components. It’s just that the commercial drones & drone parts are not being directly exported to Ukraine, but bought by NGOs in Europe & then donated to Ukraine.

    Likewise w/ body armor. China produces ~ 70% of the world’s ballistic vests/helmets. I am willing to bet that a lot of the body armor worn by Ukrainian troops were made in China, too. They offer the best value in terms of cheap price & decent performance. Again, likely bought by NGOs in Europe.

  56. 56.

    Carlo Graziani

    There is an alternative framing to “onset of Fascism” that can be used to read today’s news from Israel.

    In Part 4 of The Resumption of History, I wrote about the January 6 insurrection’s lessons concerning the health of democracy in the US. My point there was basically that we saw a very robust rejection of Trumpist Fascism from within the system, driven by attitudes of people—inside the government, including Administration political appointees—who revulsed at the corruption of the process attempted by “Team Insane.” I speculated (and much of this has been confirmed in subsequent testimony and memoirs) that if the farcical efforts on January 6 itself had succeeded in their objective of stalling the Constitutional process, the next act would have been a massive revolt by the civil service and the military, who irrespective of their political leanings would have been sickened by the pantomime-level corruption of the democratic norms into which they had been socialized since childhood, in a socio-political tradition unbroken for over two centuries.

    What I would like to suggest here is that we are now seeing a more extreme test of the same thesis. Irrespective of individual attitudes towards Israeli religious, civil, and security policy, Israelis are accultured to democratic process in a Western style, and have been for 75 years. The notion of a party, or a political figure, seizing power by upsetting the rules is disquieting to a majority of the public, and repulsive to a substantial part of governance and the military. The next stage, if this goes forwards, is almost certainly an internal revolt, and a terrified retreat by the movers of these cretinous reforms.

    This is a falsifiable prediction. But I believe that we will see a demonstration of the resilience of Israeli democracy, rather than the sealing of its doom.

    [And none of this should be construed as approval of Israeli annexationist policy.  I’m concerned here with reverence for process, not approval of policy.]

  57. 57.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    I highly doubt the Chinese government will ever devote any energy to slow the sale of non-lethal supplies by Chinese companies to Russian entities.

    And since the PRC is a totalitarian state, that’s the same as saying that China is Russia’s ally, just as the US is Ukraine’s.

  59. 59.

    Manyakitty

    @Carlo Graziani: here’s hoping. My grandmother was born in occupied Palestine (in 1917?). That side of our family lived in Safed for 7 or 8 generations and some are still there. She swore the Jews and Arabs lived in relative peace with each other until the English (I think?) came along with their arbitrary boundaries.

    I just don’t know. 😞

  60. 60.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: That would depend on the percentage of Israelis “acculturated” to the democratic process. Clearly, there is at least a significant minority that have no respect whatsoever for democratic norms.

    The “democratic process” is also a large & complex set of rules & norms, & often there have only been strong & widespread “immune response” at the very edge of the precipice, but much of the less prominent breaking of norm & rules & violations of values that make liberal democracy function do not see as vigorous a reaction. Just look at how quickly the GOP has been able to turn the states they control into increasingly illiberal democracies, & how largely ineffectual the states’ institutions & opposition have been to slow them down. The reactionaries’ control of the SCOTUS gives the GOP states Constitutional cover in their illiberalization efforts.

    Just because an attempt to push things over the precipice fails, does not change the corrosion already present, to mix metaphors. Support for annexationist & apartheid policies in the West Bank will simply continue to corrode Israel’s liberal democracy (can we still call it liberal?), even if processes are upheld for the time being.

  61. 61.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: I would be the last person to minimize the damage inflicted by the GOP or its SCOTUS agents on our democracy. I do believe that this is a transient phenomenon, which represents extremism born of desperation, as a tribally self-identified rump of the U.S. population mourns its loss of societal control. I also believe that its last, best hope of re-establishing that control was embodied in the person of Donald Trump, who by virtue of his popular familiarity bred of pre-existing television celebrity, and of his instinctive connection with the worst instincts of that grievance-addled tribe, became one of those accidental, irreproducible historic  figures, analogous to Ronald Reagan.

    The larger trends in U.S. politics seem to be moving in a decidedly anti-Fascist direction that generates ever more anxiety-driven spectacle by the white-power tribe, with spectacle increasing in proportion to the diminution of its power. None of it really speaks to American acculturation into democratic norms. This might not necessarily be easily perceptible on the basis of a diet of news distilled from the news media, but that spectacle is driven by entertainment imperatives rather than by political reality, in my opinion.

  62. 62.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Undoubtedly, the Chinese government can be relied upon to act selfishly, amorally & cynically. By the same token, it has not made much effort to slow the flow of Chinese made drones (& probably body armor) that end up in Ukraine, either.

    When it comes to sales of lethal & non-lethal military supplies, the Chinese government does not really care to interfere w/ the revenue maximization activities of state owned or private companies overseas. Chinese MIC sold weapons to both sides of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80s. China sold large armed drones to Saudi Arabia (which frequently were used in Yemen), the UAE (which were used in Libya) & Nigeria (used against the Boko Haram).

    Attempts by the West to push China to slow the export of non-lethal military supplies to Russia may also see China clamp down on indirect export of such supplies to Ukraine. Then again, it is pretty much impossible to regulate the flow of commoditized civilian/dual use ware, especially when routed through 3rd parties such as Europe, Central Asia States, Türkiye or the UAE. The US, which has decades of experience extraterritorially enforcing sanction regimes & track end users, has established a massive bureaucracy to do so. Even then, it is only for high tech items w/ specific/niche uses, the US cannot regulate the flow of commodity items, or regulate the use of civilian ware (such as consumer drones) in warfare, either.

  63. 63.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Manyakitty: The discrediting and abandonment of the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians is a continuing scandal, and one of the most dispiriting political facts of my adult life. Many individuals would deserve afterlives of eternal suffering for this, if I only believed in afterlives.

    With that said, I also believe that an eventual political accomodation is more likely under a democratic Israel than under an Israel modeled on oligarchic despotism.

  64. 64.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: the shipments in that article are clearly described as going to directly to Russia, not through some third country.  Again, in a totalitarian state like the PRC that requires the connivance of the state apparatus.  By contrast Shipments of drones to Ukraine Have had to go via third countries And have to be bought in small quantities Because large quantities are blocked.  Also, the idea that DJI and the PRC would somehow not sell DJI drones to the west Is ludicrous because of course they want to make money from the West.

    So again it comes down to the simple fact that the Chinese government is 100% fine with Russia buying all sorts of non-lethal military products from China.

  65. 65.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I guess my concern is that your argument could mean the preservation of the trappings of democratic process, at least for a time, but cannot prevent a democracy from turning illiberal (as have happened in Hungary, Poland, Türkiye, Israel, India, even Japan under Abe to an extent). Once illiberal democracy is entrenched, it can more easily slide toward authoritarianism, too. In every polity, there is a significant percentage of the population that have strong illiberal leanings, they don’t need to be “acculturated” into illiberalism.

  67. 67.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy:

    So again it comes down to the simple fact that the Chinese government is 100% fine with Russia buying all sorts of non-lethal military products from China.

    Undoubtedly true. The Chinese government is blocking large direct exports of non-lethal or dual-use ware to Ukraine to preserve its éntente w/ Russia. However, China & Russia are not allies. China will not expend Chinese blood/treasure for Russian causes, no more than Russia will expend Russian blood/treasure for Chinese causes. The Western countries are donating vast quantities of money & materiel to Ukraine, Russia has to buy Chinese supplies w/ hard currency (& probably not rubles), at market rates.

  68. 68.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: States under Jim Crow were clearly illiberal democracies, if they could have been called democracies at all. One could argue that the northern states/cities dominated by Dem machine politics were illiberal democracies, too.

  69. 69.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    However, China & Russia are not allies

    surely you can see that from the point of view of someone who views Russia as a mortal enemy, that is a distinction without a difference.

  70. 70.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: haha you say under Jim Crow, but in truth places like Alabama still are illiberal democracies.  They still are.  Or haha Mississippi.

  71. 71.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Ukraine is certainly drawing a distinction, because Chinese purchase of Ukrainian grains at market rates helps to fund the Ukrainian war effort, as much as its purchase of Russian oil at discount rates helps to fund the Russian war effort. Ukraine (& the West) are also strongly motivated to disincentivize China from selling large quantities of lethal (artillery & shells, including precision guided munitions) & non-lethal (EW, C4ISR, large military drones) weapons to Russia, which China can supply in huge quantities, quantities that can tilt the attritional battlefield in Russia’s favor. Chinese gear are approaching (or matching, in some instances) the capabilities of western gear, & Chinese industrial capacity means it can out-manufacture the West combined. That is why Zelenskyy has always treaded carefully w/ China (& India), as a skilled leader should in order to maximize his country’s interests.

  72. 72.

    Andrya

    @Geminid:   I apologize for the late reply, but I had to do a lot of research into the history of Israeli governments.  And they seem to get a new government averaging about every two years!

    You are correct that there were Arab parties in governing coalitions from 1949 through  1974, and my statement was incorrect.  I’m not going to address the 1950s under Ben-Gurion, though I get the impression that he was significantly more inclusive than later Israeli leaders.

    Between 1959 and 1974 one of two Arab parties were included in all  governing coalitions-  Cooperation & Brotherhood, and Progress & Development.  According to Wikipedia, both got  between 1% to 2.1% of the vote, despite Israeli Arabs being 20% of the population.  That suggests that most Israeli Arabs did not think either party effectively represented them.  Also problematic, both parties were to some extent dependent on the Druze vote, and Israeli Druze, though they are Arabs, are not subjected to the discrimination that other Israeli Arabs face.

    From 1974 to 2021 Arab parties were completely excluded from Israeli governing coalitions.  It remains to be seen if Ra’am can get anything out of Netanyahu to justify their participation in his coalition.

    Again, I apologize for my inaccurate statement, but I still think there is a problem here.

  73. 73.

    Cazador

    @Chetan Murthy: a couple years ago I watched the hbo special Exterminate the Brutes and arrived at a similar conclusion; namely,ww2 was the natural end result of European imperialism coming home to roost.

  74. 74.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: yes, it’s precisely that Zelensky must act to not anger China and India which can both act to harm Ukraine.  In precisely the same way a skilled leader of the United States must act to counter China’s dominance In large parts of the supply chain that our military depends on.  What we can see is the China has no interest in supporting the West, and so whether or not in any particular instance China supports the West it’s completely up to them and not related to the importance of that issue to the west.

    in matters such as chips, drones, and ships, It’s an important strategic interest that the United States not be dependent on China.  Otherwise one day the United States will be stuck the same way Ukraine is today.

  75. 75.

    Geminid

     

     

    @Andrya: The status of Arabs in Israel is problematic om many levels They have long been discriminated against in employment government services and in political advancement. That has improved some and more Arabs are involved in the tech and other sectors, but there is a long way to go still.

    Ironically, Israeli labor economists warn that Arab Israelis must be incorporated unto Israel’s modern economy in order to make up for the many Ultra-Orthodox who refrain from participation.

    During the 11 day war of May, 2021, between the IDF and Hamas in Gaza, attention in the West was fixed on the exchange of Hamas rockets and Israeli bombs. Israelis found the intercommunal violence in mixed Jewish-Arab towns even more significant and disturbing. Itimar Ben-Gvir, who is now the coalition’s Justice Minister, played a very destabilizing role here. The head of the national police complained that every time he was able to calm a city down, Ben-Gvir would come and throw gasoline on the fire, exploiting his immunity as an MK.

    Now Ben-Gvir is Justice Minister, and yesterday’s use of “skunk water” on demonstrators is almost certainly his doing.

    One of the complaints dissident IDF reservists make is that they are being attacked by “a government of draft dodgers.” They are referencing Ben-Gvir’s and Finance Minister Smotrich’s lack of military service. Ben-Gvir was exempted from induction because as a teenager his Kahanist activities were too radical for the IDF. And very few of the Ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, party MKs served un the IDF either.

    Smotrich’s and Ben-Gvir’s won high positions in the current government after hard bargaining last December. Their leverage was the 14 MKs their toxic party had won, and that Netanyahu needed to form a Knesset majority. Had Netanyahu not won them over, instead there would likely be a government formed with then-Defense Minister Benny Gantz as PM, with a coalition similar to the last one but with the addition of the two Haredi parties.

    That would have included the 5 member Arab Ra’am party, which was a member of the last government but not the current one. The inclusion of an Arab party in the last government indirectly led to its breakup, as MKs in Bennett’s party were conflicted about serving with Arabs. Defections from Bennett’s party led to the coalition’s fall. Now Bennet has stepped back from politics and his party is no more.

    If elections were held in the near future, the result would likely be a Left-Center Right government that included Ra’am again, with former IDF chief Gantz as PM.

    But Netanyahu’s fractious coalition stands for now, despite internal stresses.Threats of defection from the hard right components led Netanyahu to proceed with yesterday’s “judicial reform.” Characteristically, he chose preserving his own political power over the interests of the nation.

    As you pointed out, Arab political participation was low during Golda Meir’s tenure. It still is, and the number of Arab MKs has declined from 15 a few elections ago to 11. Some of this may be due to apathy and alienation within a mostly marginalized community. And I expect that some Arabs will not participate in a nation they still deem illegitimate.

    That last dynamic was probably an even bigger factor during Meir’s tenure, and that of the Labor-dominated governments before hers. I was aware of the low votes her Arab coalition partners recieved. But the commenter was telling us that she never would have countenance an Arab party in her government and that was clealy not so.

    There is a phenomenon here that I have observed generally in political discussions: people can care deeply about an issue, but still not be interested enough to inform themselves of facts available literally at their fingertips. I think this allows cynicism and prejudice to take hold, and impedes any kind of constructive debate.

  76. 76.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: Like I mentioned before, it is eminently rational for countries, especially great powers, to seek to reduce their dependency on sources of supply that they do not control or trust (especially, but not exclusively, competitors & adversaries). It is also not in the interest of the world economy for China alone to dominate the vertical supply chains for solar, batteries, EVs, pharmaceutical intermediaries, consumer drones, LCD/OLED displays, & shipbuilding (South Korea, the only other major competitor, has been losing out on orders this year), etc. In the same vein, it is not in the interest of the world economy for Taiwan (really just TSMC) to dominate the manufacture of advanced logic chips, for South Korea (really just Samsung & SK Hynix) to dominate in advanced memories, the Netherlands to dominate in EUV scanners (just ASML), of the US to dominate in EDAs & commercial space launches (really just SpaceX), & for the US/EU to dominate civilian aviation (just Boeing & Airbus).

    The US & the EU are both dependent on Taiwan (not China) for advanced logic chips & South Korea (not China) for advanced memories. The US’ CHIPS Act is as much an attempt to force diversification of advanced semiconductors away from Taiwan/South Korea to the US, as it is an attempt to limit foreign investment into Chinese semiconductor manufacturing capacity. We’ll see to what degree it is actually successful in these aims. The EU is working on is own version. One could argue that China kicked off the race to “de-risk” w/ its Made in China 2025, but both the US & the EU have now full bought into industrial policy, after being in thrall of Neoliberalism for decades.

    Nevertheless, there is a difference between establishing trusted options (preferably domestic, if economically sustainable) as fall back, or “de-risking”, & eliminating any dependence at all, or “de-coupling”. Significant degree of interdependence can serve as a brake (albeit not an absolute one) on great power conflict, & great powers do have accept a degree of mutual vulnerability to each other if they are to avoid a security dilemma dynamic that inexorably leads to conflict. The high inflationary effect of even a “successful” decoupling effort will cause economic chaos around the world, & it will be the reactionaries everywhere that are most likely to benefit from such chaos.

  77. 77.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: BTW,

    A three-star Air Force general said the U.S. military’s approach to artificial intelligence is more ethical than adversaries’ because it is a “Judeo-Christian society,” an assessment that drew scrutiny from experts.

    Link to WaPo article. At an event organized by the Hudson Institute, of course.

    In the battle against authoritarianism & illiberal democracy in the US, I am not sure we can count on portions of the USAF brass. The branch seems to be particularly infiltrated by Christo-fascists.

  78. 78.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Another reminder that nation-states ultimately are selfish players, are deeply compromised morally, & best not to put any of them on pedestals.

    Poland demands import ban on Ukrainian strawberries

    …
    Back in April, the five countries agreed to lift unilateral import bans in exchange for guarantees that Ukrainian grain shipments would only transit through the five countries en route to other destinations.
    Those measures expire on September 15, and the five want them to be prolonged and expanded to other crops. Polish agriculture minister Robert Telus yesterday said that Poland wanted new measures to restrict soft fruit shipments, in particular frozen raspberries and strawberries.
    “We also want the scope of preventive measures to be flexible and subject to modifications in consultation with the European Commission,” Telus said.
    The Polish-led request for an extension of import restrictions comes after Russia this month pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal, which has added to concerns in Poland and other EU border countries about neighbouring Ukraine seeking to send more farm exports their way instead.
    Still, the atmosphere in the Brussels meeting room is expected to be pretty chilly, diplomats say. Poland has harangued other EU member states into backing ever tighter sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, at considerable cost to their own economies.
    “Poland claims to be Ukraine’s best friend, but in the meantime is more concerned with protecting its own interests — particularly those of the ruling party — by catering to the rural electorate,” said a diplomat from another member state. The nationalist government in Warsaw faces a tight election in autumn.
    …

    The Eastern European countries do have some valid concerns, since their agricultural sectors have to operate under EU regulations, while Ukraine’s does not & thus can undercut them on price. Still…

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