Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” is supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

This fight is for everything.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

ha ha ha! Nice try weird people.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

The Supreme Court is corrupt. Democrats must win in November and force court reform.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

No Justins, No Peace

We won’t go back.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

In my day, never was longer.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 543: Chernihiv One Day On

War for Ukraine Day 543: Chernihiv One Day On

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

President Zelesnskyi is traveling again today. I expect that his address will come in very late again. Yesterday’s came in after it had become today in Ukraine. As such, I’m going to go ahead and post this now.

Condemnation of Russia’s strike on civilian targets in Chernihiv yesterday are being made:

The international community has strongly condemned this violent attack. Estonian President Alar Karis expressed his hope that all Russian military criminals would face a tribunal, “Russian terror is endless. Shocking cruelty in Chernihiv. Bombing civilian buildings is not only inhumane, but also a war crime.” He added that Estonia will continue to support Ukraine.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu also emphasized that the Russian Federation’s blatant aggression against civilians should not go unpunished, saying, “Russia must be held accountable for its atrocities in Ukraine.”

Bridget Brink, the United States ambassador to Ukraine, commented on the “horrible news of the shelling of the historical center of Chernihiv.” She wrote on Twitter, “Horrified by news of today’s daytime attack on the historic center of Chernihiv. Innocent men, women, and children enjoying a beautiful Saturday – a holiday in Ukraine – should never end up killed or wounded.” Brink condemned Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, ports, and the population, stating that it reflects the depths to which Russia has sunk and must be stopped. She also expressed her condolences, saying, “Together with the people of Ukraine, we mourn this tragedy.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Russia to immediately end its “cruel war.” He strongly condemned the recent missile strike on the innocent civilians of Chernihiv, stating on Twitter, “We condemn in the strongest terms yet another horrific missile attack on innocent civilians in Chernihiv. We mourn this tragic loss of life, and our hearts are with the families of victims. The U.S. will always stand by the people of Ukraine. Russia must end its brutal war now.”

More at the link!

Max Galkin, a Ukrainian-Israeli comedian, dedicated this post to her (machine translated):

weekends, city, center, theatre, children, death. The little girl smiled, lived, hoped, laughed, no matter what, we do not choose the time of childhood, rockets fly and fly, sirens howl, and childhood goes on, a little man lives on the threshold of a new big life, and this little fragile man has adult uncles in medals say, they say, you won’t have this great life, we have other plans, today is your last day, accompanying losses. Our big minister said that this is what it is called, he says, we did not come up with it. And he, in our largest country, is responsible for all our affairs that do not concern us. Associated losses. Why won’t the girl smile anymore? I don’t have the strength to look at her smile. I can’t even show a photo of the girl. Is this someone’s favorite girl? I think that here they are, her loved ones, relatives, accidentally open the phone, and from someone else’s phone she looks at them, and it’s already hard for them. Why is their girl in thousands of other people’s phones? Because she’s now a collateral loss. Related. What kind of path is this, on which such losses? Where we are going? Uncle minister knows better. Or maybe he doesn’t know what the path is either. He soothes himself. But this adult uncle who pressed the button, can he look at the smile that is no longer there? Or does he not use the Internet? Or uses, but does not tell anyone, so calmer. And then there are individual adult aunts with cats, loving mothers and grandmothers with geraniums on the windowsill, who will now write that I did not remember the girl in Palestine, or they will grumble right there that I am quarreling people. This calms them down… A beautiful theatre, still standing after the blow, I once performed in it, joked, people laughed, every theater is a living soul, I feel that way. Like a wall, a stone, but a living soul. So many people walk the earth, they press the buttons, and the souls are dead. And this theater has a living soul and will live on. Condolences to the residents of Chernihiv

Much, much more after the jump:

Chernihiv. A day has passed since the russian missile attack. Seven people were killed, and doctors are fighting to save the lives of the injured. Although the theater was destroyed, we only have grown stronger, more determined, and more certain of our victory. Evil will be dealt with. No amount of terror can prevent this punishment.
📷 Efrem Lukatsky, Paula Bronstein, Oleg Petrasyuk, Suspilne

Here’s a better look at one of the Russian missiles as it hit the Chernihiv theater:

Absolutely horrific strike by the Russian invaders in Chernihiv.

This Made-in-Russia garbage missile with its low quality aiming system ricocheted on the street and smashed into this building, across the Shevchenko Drama Theatre. You can even see children and presumably the father carrying one of the kids away from that carnage.

At least one 6-year old girl has been killed by this heinous terrorist attack.

Source: https://t.me/uniannet/108624

#Ukraine #Chernihiv

 

Very productive, focused, and concrete talks with @Statsmin Mette Frederiksen.

Our pilots and engineers have already began their training in Denmark.

Denmark will provide Ukraine with 19 F-16s. We are working on the speed of preparations.

During the talks we also discussed the possibility of expanding training missions — the algorithm is clear.

Our F-16 coalition is proving its efficiency.

Thank you, Denmark!

Today, we took another step to strengthen Ukraine’s air shield. F-16s.

These jets will be used to keep Russian terrorists away from Ukrainian cities and towns. @MinPres
Mark Rutte and I reached an agreement on the number of F-16s to be transferred to Ukraine once our pilots and engineers have completed their training.

42 jets. And this is just the beginning.

Thank you, Netherlands!

The Ukrainians will at some point receive 61 F-16s once all the training is completed for the pilots, the flight crews, the engineers, and the mechanics.

Here are some details on where things stand with the training program:

Currently, a certain number of 🇺🇦 pilots, engineers and technicians have started training on F-16 aircraft. The training program also includes English language training, because the basic level of a foreign language is not enough. The minimum term for pilot training is 6 months – the Minister of Defense of 🇺🇦 in an interview
https://24tv.ua/f-16-rozpochali-vzhe-navchannya-ukrayinski-piloti_n2375551?utm_source=webpush

 

Bellingcat’s Christo Grozev has an interesting and excellent thread on what is going on with Wagner. First tweet from the thread, the rest of the thread from the Thread Reader App.

First, a reminder of the context: at the start of the war, Wagner was not invited to the table. On the assumption of a quick victory for 🇷🇺, generals at MoD and GRU set up their own PMC, both to seize control away from Prigozhin, but also to dip into the (corrupt) funding flows. 
The top general who in late 2021 was put in charge of creating the new PMC (variously called Reduta or Zvezda) was Gen. Vladimir Alexeev (yes, the same one who famously sat down to negotiate with Prigozhin on the day of the abortive coup attempt)
Image
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Alexeev had recruited Wagner’s former “Intelligence chief” and used him as the recruiter for the new, competing PMC. This was Anatoly Karzai, a former Spetznaz lt. colonel who was big in the Russia’s bikers’ circles.Image
Naturally, Prigozhin found out about the competing operation and (as reported by two former mercenaries) went to the GRU HQ to confront Alexeev, and threatened his ex-employee Karаziy (typo in name previous tweet) with physical violence . 
Karaziy and Alexeev won that battle, but lost the war (literally), as their PMC was decimated in the first days of the war and Prigozhin had to be begged to bring the original Wagner into the war as of end of March 2022. 
Back to modern day.. After the final fall-out with Wagner this past June, MoD and GRU tried to recruit as many of Wagner’s top commanders and mercenaries into Redut/Zvezda/MoD. However, not a whole lot responded. 
The only commander that Alexeev/Karaziy were able to steal away from Wagner after the failed coup was a colonel with callsign Seriy (the grey-ing one). @bellingcat wrote about his role in Wagner, especially in Syria, in 2020: To the (mirror) left of Putin. bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…
Image

Troshev is now “the Utkin”, or the mil. commander, of Redut. And he is now the target of a character assassination campaign by his former Wagner buddies, bringing back a 2017 incident when he was found passed out in the street with secret Syria maps)

However, rather than recruiting mercenaries for fighting in Ukraine, the GRU-controlled Redut is reported to be hiring now primarily for overseals/Africa postings. Wagner-aligned channels are accusing MoD of trying to divert resources to replace Prigozhin in lucrative markets. 
So the main conflict between Prigozhin and the MoD appears to mostly on the future of “kuratorstvo” of African/middle-east client states (and resource markets), rather than “how to win the war in Ukraine”. 
Prigozhin (who offered full-service assistance to his “client states”, including spin-doctors, psyops and electoral interference as needed) has created some strong local allegiances in Africa, and won’t give them up without a fight.Image
One thing appears certain: insofar as MoD/GRU need to allocate resources – both focus and 000’s of mercenaries – to win over Africa from Prigozhin, this is focus and resources unavailable to them on the ground in Ukraine. 
(а correction to Troshev’s call sign – Sedoy, not Seriy – the gray-ing one, not the “gray” one). 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Reposting this from last night.

There is also a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click across to see it.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

81Comments

  1. 1.

    TeezySkeezy

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Would you say you are less pessimistic about the F-16 situation than you were say even a week ago?

  2. 2.

    Jay

    Mats Marcusson
    @gubbdjavel
    Aug 17
    This has failed state written all over it. Why the hell did the little person in the kremlin allow the Wagners so much independence? And why is Prigozhin not arrested. What’s his leverage on p?

    understandingwar.org/backgro…

    https://nitter.net/gubbdjavel/status/1692074787550769352#m

    The Russian MoD may be using the Army-2023 Forum in Moscow to coerce countries into refusing to cooperate with the Wagner Group and to advertise Russian MoD-controlled private military companies (PMCs). Wagner-affiliated sources amplified claims on August 16 that the Russian MoD is using the Army-2023 Forum to request that countries refuse all cooperation with Wagner and is offering the services of Russian MoD-controlled PMCs instead.[27] The Russian MoD is also reportedly threatening to end military-technical support and support at the United Nations if countries continue to leverage existing ties with Wagner.[28] Wagner-affiliated sources claimed that the Russian MoD already issued Burkina Faso an ultimatum by threatening to end Russian support if Burkina Faso continues to use Wagner forces.[29] These claims are unconfirmed and primarily come from Wagner-affiliated sources, but track with ISW’s previous assessments that the Kremlin seeks to destroy or restructure Wagner in favor of Russian MoD-controlled PMCs.[30]

  8. 8.

    Alison Rose

    ‘We are ready to exchange Belgorod for Ukraine’s NATO membership’

    Love it. He always finds the perfect way to essentially say “fuck that noise”.

    I hope the F-16 training goes smoothly and those jets are in the air as soon as possible, even if “as soon as possible” should have been a year ago.

    The photo of little Sofia is absolutely heartwrenching. Someone ask putin-loving GOPers why they care so much about children when it comes to drag queens reading picture books but not this poor girl and all the others like her who have been murdered by the Repubs’ soviet daddy.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  9. 9.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Frank Wilhoit: The Biden administration seems to be exceedingly concerned with two things. The first is Russia’s ongoing rhetoric regarding the tactical use of a nuclear weapon. The second is that the Russian government will collapse leaving all of Russia’s nuclear weapons unsecured.

    I think that both of these are being used as excuses because the senior political appointees are exceedingly risk averse to begin with. These two things provide them with a justification for their risk aversion. The Soviet Union came apart and the nukes did not go missing. I guarantee you we have a plan for working with allies and partners and even competitors like the PRC to ensure they would be secured. As for the rhetoric about the tactical use of nukes, as I’ve written repeatedly, this is Russian psychological operations as part of their information warfare doctrine to freeze their adversaries and prevent them from doing what is necessary to stop Russia doing whatever Putin wants to do.

  10. 10.

    wjca

    Given the (massive) ineptitude displayed the Russian generals, why would any mercenary elect to sign on with a Russian MoD-controlled PMC?  High as Wagner’s casualty rates have been, the regular army has done worse.  And for less gain.

  11. 11.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Alison Rose: it’s all depressing.  By August 2022 we knew that Ukraine was in this to win it.  We could have had pilots being trained on F-16s in the US or in Western Europe starting then.  If it takes 6 months to train a pilot, we could have had the second batch of them coming out of training by now.  So that by the time We got around to approving the planes, The pilots would be ready.  and ditto for the maintainers.  They say amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.  training pipelines are part of logistics.

    We’ve been fighting this war to the last Ukrainian.  Meanwhile, ukrainian birth rates have dropped, and there’s good reason to think that most of the Ukrainians who fled — women and children — won’t be returning to Ukraine.  We’re fucking this up and for no good reason.

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TeezySkeezy: To give a fuller answer: It is great that Denmark and Holland have pledged to supply these aircraft. And it is wonderful to know that even though the training program hasn’t been finalized, Ukrainian personnel are getting training. But they are at least six months away from completing that training, which means they are at least six months away from receiving the planes and using them. That would be right around the beginning of the second year of Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. While it is impossible that the Ukrainians will meet and exceed standard ahead of time, we’re still several months away from Ukraine getting the F-16s and using them against the Russians. Had the training been set up in mid 2022 just in case the US decided to approve the transfer at some point, then the Ukrainians would be ready to receive them and use them right now. But one of the red lines that Putin and other Russian officials declared would lead to the tactical use of nukes was the US and NATO training Ukrainians on F-16s and then supplying them to them. That red line wasn’t worth the paper it was printed on. Just like all the other red lines.

  13. 13.

    Anonymous At Work

    How much would Poland “ignoring” a drone matter for the attack on the Russian airbase? (EDIT: By that, I mean, Poland allowing an attack drone to use Polish airspace) I’m trying to walk through the “Russia blames Poland, Poland moons Putin and blows him a kiss, Russia bitches and moans, etc.” tit-for-tat words but I’m getting stuck on what Russia can *do*.  Russia doesn’t care about words except so far as they make NATO, US, etc. *do* something as a result.

  19. 19.

    Ksmiami

    @Adam L Silverman: we could tell Putin that if he wants to rattle his saber, we will end his world. There can be no negotiation or fear 😨 f Russia. The country deserves utter decimation for all the strife they cause.

  20. 20.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ksmiami: There’s that old Biblical saying about motes and beams.  We don’t need to threaten military confrontation with Russia: all we need to do (as the collective “West”) is effectively embargo all trade with Russia.  We could do it if we wanted to, but let’s face it: in this war, all  our captains of industry are at best Henry Ford, Prescott Bush, and the Koch Bros’ father Fred.  They’re all busy making money selling to Russia (sure/sure/sure thru cutouts: like that changes things).

    And our governments (again, all over the West) goes right along with it.

    It doesn’t require that we confront Russia militarily: their economy cannot function without the West, their military machine can’t either.  But hey, give ’em a few years, and between them and the goddamn PRC, they’ll manage it.  Then we’ll really have a bad situation on our hands.

  22. 22.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ksmiami: it’s not up to the US.  Many of our allies are in bed with Russia when it comes to trade in dual use goods.  Many of our allies continue to do business with Russia in things like metallurgy machining and other parts of manufacturing.  All that stuff is necessary for Russia’s war machine.   What’s the US going to do?  Cut off Germany?  Cut off Turkey?  I mean, it’s not just the PRC that’s trading with Russia, selling them weapons And all the precursors for weapons.

  24. 24.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Anonymous At Work: so you’re saying that ukraine would send a drone the long way around through Poland and the Baltics to attack a Russian air base?  From what I understand Typically air defenses will be close to the air baseSo that doesn’t gain you much,  no?  But more importantly I would think that that would be something that Ukraine would not do simply because They don’t put their allies in danger And nobody knows whether Russia is going to treat that as an attack from Poland or not.  I would think that Poland wouldn’t like that at all.

  25. 25.

    wjca

    @Ksmiami:

    I want Russia to not exist too.

    Do we go with Siberia as an independent country?  Or taken over by Mongolia (thus providing some national governmental infrastructure already in place)?  Or just let China take over?  Which a Siberian observing China’s trearment of the Uyghurs and the Tibetans would probably be seriously unenthused about.  Albeit incapable of stopping.

  26. 26.

    Another Scott

    @Chetan Murthy: This may be in one of Adam’s links above, but I saw this at Reuters:

    Denmark will deliver 19 jets in total, with the first six due to be shipped to Ukraine around New Year, followed by eight in 2024 and five the following year, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said.

    What’s determining those numbers and the timeline? No idea. I ass-u-me that it’s not just training. Maybe it’s the usual problem of not 100% of the equipment actually being in an operational state (e.g. some planes are periodically cannibalized for parts to keep others flying)? Maybe they’re waiting for F/A-18s, or F-35s, or who knows what, to replace them.

    Dunno.

    Like everyone here, I wish that they had the planes (and more) 6 months ago. I continue to ass-u-me that the USA and NATO are giving Ukraine as much as they can, as quickly as they can, given all the real-world constraints.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  27. 27.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Another Scott:

    I continue to ass-u-me that the USA and NATO are giving Ukraine as much as they can, as quickly as they can, given all the real-world constraints.

    If, by “real-world constraints” you mean that we and our allies are assholes, yeah, I agree.  Turkey and Greece have large F16 fleets, only they’re pointed *at each other* so they can’t spare any.  Ditto Leopards.  Egypt and Israel, ditto.  And it goes on and on.

  28. 28.

    Jay

    @Another Scott:

    F-35 deliveries.

    As new aircraft and pilots become operational, the older aircraft can be serviced and then donated.

    After decades of stagnation, right now NATO countries are trying to balance aid for Ukraine, with not stripping out their arsenals.

    Canada has no M-777’s anymore, Canadian Arty now trains at home on 1950’s 105’s, then flies to Germany to train on Belgian M-777’s, and will do until 2025 when our M-777 orders are delivered.

  29. 29.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Another Scott: i saw a chart showing defense expenditures as a percentage of GDP for NATO nations, comparing before and after the start of the full scale invasion.  Poland had dramatically increased defense expenditures — dramatically.  The Baltics had increased defense expenditures a bit.  And everybody else?  Pretty much unchanged.  Some NATO countries even decreased their expenditures.

  31. 31.

    NutmegAgain

    @Alison Rose: I’m sure you already know that GOP members don’t really love children. That is, they profess love for “pre-born” ones, but “post-born”? they don’t care if they starve or have violent deaths here or in Ukraine, or anywhere else.

  32. 32.

    Another Scott

    @Chetan Murthy:

    by “real-world constraints”

    I mostly mean things like ATACMS production rate (supposedly) being ~ 500 per year and all the scheduled production committed to other allied customers. And the post-ATACMS missile not scheduled to be in production for a year or two or more.

    But I also mean things like keeping NATO together. E.g. Hungary still hasn’t voted to let Sweden join. They undoubtedly want their pound of flesh. Germany’s government is very unpopular according to the polls, and leaders can only get so far ahead of the public on things like foreign assistance when RWNJ parties are screaming and rising in the polls. Stuff like that.

    It’s really easy to say, “everyone could see this coming, work should have started a year ago”. But politics is always slow and what’s obvious to us isn’t obvious to others who have to be on-board.

    And one can’t just throw money at a problem and have widgets come out 6-12 months later. Things are really slow there, too. E.g. ArsTechnica – Decades of deferred maintenance issues at NASA.

    These are big, complicated problems that cost a lot of money and time and people willing to get half-a-loaf even when the other guys are obviously being unreasonable…

    My $0.02.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  33. 33.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Another Scott: it doesn’t explain why we waited a whole year to start training pilots.  It doesn’t explain why we have nearly 400,000 M26 cluster munitions rockets in stockpile that arguably we’ll never use, and we haven’t started sending them to Ukraine.  IIUC they’re even stockpiled in Europe.

  36. 36.

    Andrya

    @Chetan Murthy:  If the Baltic states are only increasing their expenditures “a bit” they are making a massive mistake.  If and when putin decides to take on NATO (and I think that is entirely possible- I have serious doubts about his sanity) the Baltic states are right in his crosshairs.

  37. 37.

    Another Scott

    @Chetan Murthy: Devil’s advocate:

    Who should be trained to fly F-16s?  Presumably Ukraine’s best pilots, yes?  Because they already know how to fly fighters?  But, can Ukraine spare such pilots now?  If not them, won’t less experienced pilots require more training?

    This AF general says F-16 proficiency takes 4-5 years.

    This stuff isn’t easy. I think that Biden deserves the benefit of the doubt here.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  38. 38.

    TeezySkeezy

    @Adam L Silverman: So does that mean you aren’t 100% pessimistic on the F-16 talk, or do you doubt the current promising *sounding* rhetoric? Because even though talk is far from action, that NATO is willing to even just talk big is a step forward for them on this issue.

  44. 44.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Chetan Murthy: Sorry, got into another browser window intensely.  “That Poland doesn’t want to risk it” is a decent reason.  I was hoping for more down the line of “What would Poland risk by doing it?” because I think Russia is more scared of NATO than NATO is of Russia, despite Russian bluster to the contrary.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    6 mos. is to be able to conduct relatively basic operation. If Ukraine is really sending the greenest trainees that require time on propeller trainers 1st (because more experienced ones are needed on the front), then it might take longer. To be able to truly exploit the full capabilities of the F-16s take years.

    Rush these pilots from training to the battlefield & we may see the same less than hoped for effect as the NATO trained brigades on the ground in Jun. Furthermore, training the Ukrainian brigades to NATO doctrine proved problematic because NATO way of war was based on assumptions that did not align w/ Soviet era inertia & current Ukrainian realities. The way NATO employs air power & inter-service joint operations is very different from the Soviet doctrine or current Ukrainian practice, the same risk of misalignment is there. Using green Ukrainian trainees reduced the need to deprogram Soviet era habits, but pilots trained on NATO air tactics & doctrine still answer to Ukrainian commanders who are not yet indoctrinated in the NATO way of air war, still need to work w/ Ukrainian forward air controllers who are trained on Soviet doctrine, & still have to coordinate w/ Ukrainian AD units (to reduce risk of friendly fire).

    I think we need to manage our expectations when Ukrainian F-16s show up on the battlefield next year. All the more reason this process should have started a year ago.

  50. 50.

    Gin & Tonic

    “Children’s shoes for sale. Never worn.”

    Russian Telegram channel mocks the death of six-year-old Sophia Holynska who was killed in Russia’s missile strike on Chernihiv yesterday.

    The post has nearly 47,000 “laughing” reactions from Russian social media users. pic.twitter.com/GnfJmDDZwX
    — Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) August 20, 2023

    This is who russia is.

  51. 51.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: Recent reports that Sweden may provide Gripen fighter jets are interesting in that Gripens could provide an interim reinforcement for Ukraine’s air force. I’ve read that the Gripens are equipped with an anti-air missile that can be be be fired at a low altitude and still climb to hit fighters at higher altitudes, which would help the Gripen survive in that battlefield environment. Gripens are also more flexible as to landing strips than are F-16s.

    If there is in fact a prospect of Gripen deliveries, Ukraine might send experienced pilots to train on them. Just 12 of these fighters could have a positive impact on Ukrainian air defense. I think Gripens can also carry cruise missiles such Storm Shadows, and Ukraine may need them for that purpose also.

  53. 53.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: We will have to see if Poland’s armament programs is actually sustainable, given the poor state of Polish economy & government finances, as Polish economy is intricate linked to Germany economy & the larger EU economy. The EU is teetering in the cusp of recession, Germany is already in recession.

    Some of the heady announcements coming out of Warsaw may be pre-election posturing by the illiberal religio-nationalist ruling party. The Polish government just announced an intention to purchase 8 frigates. Poland does not need that many surface combatants of that size, & it is unclear how they will be paid for. Polish ruling party’s position in the next election is precarious due to the economic weakness, & the voters blame them as the incumbent establishment. The same dynamic is at play in Germany, only there the far right AfD is benefitting.

    The EU economy is reeling from an energy shock due to the sudden withdrawal from cheap Russian hydrocarbons, as well as long term doubt over its manufacturing competitiveness. European countries are buying Russian gas 2nd hand from China & Russian oil 2nd hand from India to partially cushion this shock. The auto industry is the largest industry in the EU, & critical to the economies of Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia & Hungary. Right now it is on the path to collapse due to the German auto companies missing the boat on EV transition. They face life threatening competition from Tesla, the Koreans & the Chinese (starting from European marques owned by Chinese companies, followed by Chinese marques). EU trade deficit w/ China exploded in the past 3 years, driven by auto imports.

    If the West truly considered the conflict w/ Putin to be a global war, & intends to confront it in a unified manner, the U.S. could subsidize the prices of oil/gas exports to the EU to cushion the energy shock. However, apparently it is more important to maximize shareholder value of the oil companies. Furthermore, US & EU industries are more competitive than complementary, & CHIPS/IRA have intensified that competition into a subsidies war, subsidies that still need to come from the coffers of European governments. Where are German companies making new investments? The U.S. (where IRA subsidies & huge market make project economics attractive) & China (where the subsidies & the market have been there for years), not Germany.

    You can call out the Germans & other Europeans for reaping what they sow, but you cannot ignore the political economy if you want them to adopt the policies you advocate for. Aside from Poland & Hungary, the far right is already in power in Sweden & Italy, economic turmoil will given them a major boost across the continent. Some of these far right parties might be anti-Putin for nationalistic or cynical reasons, but the reactionaries taking power across the EU will do wonders for the EU, & any prospect of a “liberal international order”.

  54. 54.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: Hi G&T, may I ask an unrelated question?  I see there are some organizations set up to offer free English lessons to Ukrainians.  May I ask if you have heard of this or have any opinions on whether it’s useful?  I have more teaching skills than dollars to shhare just now.

    My family is not ready yet, but we have also considered whether our guest room would be good enough accommodations for a refugee for a year.  That is a big commitment though.

    Thank you for sharing that disgusting tweet or whatever even though it is beyond horrible.

    Sofia’s memory will shine bright, but it is so wrong that her life was cut short so cruelly.  Little Sasha Yakhno was another, his photo looks so much like one of my kids…

  57. 57.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, … RFERL.org:

    Crimea is facing a shortage of gasoline after Ukraine last month bombed the only bridge connecting the Russian-controlled peninsula to Russia.

    Gasoline stations in Crimea have at times run out of the oil product over the past month, residents have told RFE/RL.

    One of the leading gasoline chains in Criema sent clients a text message last week urging them to stock up on the product amid concerns about a shortfall, residents said.

    Russia, one of the world’s largest produces of oil products, has been supplying the peninsula with gasoline and other oil products via rail across the $4 billion Crimean bridge opened in 2018.

    Ukraine’s armed forces on July 17 struck the bridge for the second time since Russia launched its full-scale invasion last year. The strike forced Russia to halt oil product shipments by rail.

    […]

    Kyiv has stepped up its targeting of Crimea in recent months and is also trying to cut off the land bridge from Russia to Crimea through the Donesk region with its latest counteroffensive. Ukraine has recently hit two bridges connecting Crimea to Ukrainian territory under Russian control.

    Ukrainian military officials say the situation with supplies for residents will only get worse as Russia will need to prioritize deliveries to its military on Crimea.

    Oleksandr Khmelevskiy, an independent expert, told RFE/RL that this could lead to social unrest, putting pressure on Moscow.

    “If the economic situation deteriorates significantly, support for the war from the population will decrease significantly. The further it goes, the more difficult it will be to explain to the population what Russia is fighting for, what this war was required for,” he said.

    Inshallah.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  59. 59.

    bookworm1398

    @ Andrya. The Baltic countries could be making the rational calculation that in case of invasion they will receive weapons for free from other NATO countries. No need to spend money of them now, even if they could afford it which they really cant

  61. 61.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: I’ve seen a number of articles on this subject at the Kyiv Independent and Post.  Also interview with  woman who runs the UA demographics agency for the government.  She said that she had no hope that most Ukrainian refugees would return home, unless they had a better life to return to.  Yesterday I saw a video at Kyiv Independent (IIRC) interviewing Ukrainians on the street, and asking them (1) what percentage of refugees abroad would return home, and (2) what Ukraine could do to increase the number.

    The uniform answer was around 30% would return home, and the biggest reasons they would not were (a) war (no surprise) and (b) corruption.  And they said that this meant people had hard, poor lives, so why would people return?

    It was depressing: I want Ukraine to thrive, and to do so, it needs its people.  I’d be happy to be told that these articles/video were mistaken — really happy.

  62. 62.

    Andrya

    @bookworm1398:  I’m not saying that your explanation is wrong, but, if it’s right, the Baltic countries are (in my opinionated opinion) making a huge mistake.  Two reasons:

    a.  Ukraine didn’t get serious weapons aid until they had successfully fought off the first assault.  I’d expect it would be the same for the Baltic countries.  And Ukraine is a much larger country, with almost 7 times the population of the three Baltic states combined.  It would be much harder for the Baltic states to fight off the first wave russian assault.

    b.  My expectation is that putin will wait (on attacking any NATO country) until TIFG or a similar Republican is president.  (He’s probably kicking himself that he didn’t attack Ukraine in 2018.)  If any Republican (other than Pence or Christie) becomes president, NATO becomes toothless, and aid from the US will not come.

  63. 63.

    Jinchi

    Question on the potential deliveries of F-16’s: I’ve heard varying numbers pledged, but have no idea whether these numbers are significant.

    Are 42 jets enough to control the skies over a battle zone, or just a nice addition to the defense of the skies. I was under the impression Russia’s air force in the region numbered around 2,000.

  65. 65.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jinchi: In a recent Geopol Decanted episode, Justin Bronk (RUSI) said RU flies 8 CAPs of 2 fighters each, pretty much continuously on their side of the line of control.  16 fighters, and each patrol is for 2hr.  He discussed how this is really piling up the hours on RU airframes.  Obvs. there’s no way UA can match that with only 42 jets, but it’s a start for seeing the size of the obstacle to be surmounted.

  66. 66.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: In a vacuum, the Gripen has always been the fighter that best suited Ukraine’s needs. However, the problem is the small number of airframes across a small number of operators (amongst whom Hungary, South Africa & Thailand are highly unlikely to offer up their airframes or provide training) & less mature service/maintenance capacity. The countries offering up F-16s anticipate imminent replacements in the F-35s, less so w/ countries operating Gripens (& they tend to be small AFs to begin w/).

    The issue of NATO training’s compatibility w/ Ukrainian realities is still relevant w/ the Gripens.

  67. 67.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Chetan Murthy: In the video, several respondents pointed out that these refugees (women w/children) had already been out-of-country for 1.5yr, and so they’d have had to get jobs, housing, settled lives for their kids (schools), etc.  So when the war ends, why wouldn’t their husbands join them?  Again, not what I want to hear, and I’d be happy to learn different.

  69. 69.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Another Scott:  The discussion about providing F16s—and, now, Gripens—to Ukraine has acquired an almost fetishistic aspect, both in the press and in this forum.

    There is, according to military aviation experts, absolutely no reason to believe that any fighter system provided to Ukraine would have a significant impact on the progress of this war, even if aircraft, pilots, airfields, logistical trains, etc. were to magically appear today. The reason being that air defense dominates air power in this conflict, on both sides, and the chances of up-gunning Ukraine’s air capabilities to the point that they could change this fact are zero, to many significant figures. It’s not clear that NATO air forces could themselves establish air superiority—let alone air dominance—in such a battle environment. Certainly if NATO is forced into air intervention against Russia in Ukraine, we may expect to see substantial losses to Western air forces. And the UAF is not going to play in that league for many years to come. ‘Starting training a year ago” would have made absolutely no difference whatever to that calculus.

    We talk about F16s because the Ukrainians ask for them. But they ask for everything, because “don’t ask, don’t get.” That is understandable, but it doesn’t mean we need to accord equal priority to all the asks. The fighter jet ask is absurdly wasteful in the context of war-relevance. It is sensible in the context of eventual integration of Ukraine into NATO. In that context, however, the delays in training, sustainment, etc. are expected and necessary, and not at all crises brought on by lack of foresight. That framing is just, well, let’s just say it’s wrong.

  70. 70.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: I’m going to cite Justin Bronk, who argues that YES, western fighters could have an impact.  He notes that RU fighter-bombers cannot safely fight over UA-controlled terrain, but they *can* fight over the line-of-control, b/c they have overwatch from modern RU air superiority fighters on CAP far above, who keep UA fighters away.  UA fighter-bombers, by contrast, cannot approach the line-of-control as safely, b/c, again, those RU CAP fighters will target them.  This is an asymmetric advantage to RU fighter-bombers.

    If UA had modern western fighters and missiles that could take out those RU CAP fighters, then UA fighter-bombers could approach the line-of-control more safely, could be more effective.

    For instance, they cannot today approach at medium-altitude, b/c of RU CAP.  At low-altitude, they’re vulnerable to MANPADS.  If UA had western fighters to get rid of that CAP, they could approach the LOC at medium-altitude.

    None of what he was describing was about attacking into Russia’s backfield — it was all about being able to attack at the LOC.

  72. 72.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: There is not a single Wunderwaffen that will tilt the balance decisively in Ukraine’s favor. Tilting the balance has to be the accumulation of a hundred different nudges, of which F-16s/Gripens are one out of many possible nudges

    The prowess of Russian IADS seems to depend on the theater. It appears to have a strong system around the war zone, but there appear to be major gaps for the rest of the country, given how consistently Ukrainian attack drones (which do not appear to be that sophisticated & are non-stealthy) reach Moscow or airbases far from Ukraine

    A NATO SEAD & air strike campaign against Russian military formations in & near Ukraine may incur some losses to SAMs (much higher it weren’t for F-22s doing fighter sweeps/CAPs & F-35s doing SEAD), but one targeted against the rest of Russia could face far less effective opposition (though may have Putin looking at tactical nukes).

  73. 73.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy:  This is not a cost-benefit analysis. It is a benefit statement. The former is a useful decision-making framework. The latter is not.

    The issue is: in a resource-constrained environment, how does one spend the next 0.4B-1.2B dollars (typical drawdown or assistance appropriation amount) on assistance that has the greatest impact on the war. This is not a “yes, and” question. Even the US does not operate in the infinite-resource approximation. There are always choices among alternatives.

    So, would Bronk’s observations about contesting Russian CAP really constitute decisive advantage in the war? Please. Compared to ammo, mine-clearing, protected mobility, artillery tubes etc—all things that a huge effort to put competent UAF pilots in F16 cockpits by, say, 2024 would compete with—the fighter debate is a complete and utter waste of time.

    It’s properly understood as a maneuver to speed/promote NATO integration. Casting F16s as even comparable in importance to the war as, say, the introduction of HIMARS, or even of cluster munitions, is simply ridiculous.

  74. 74.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Even the US does not operate in the infinite-resource approximation. There are always choices among alternatives.

    I’ve been pretty consistent in arguing that the EU isn’t doing enough, and they need to get on the stick.  This is something the EU could have started on a year ago, had in place in a few months.  Instead, it’ll be at least a year, maybe even two more.  And I’d argue that in fact “The West” does operate in the infinite-resource approximation, only we’re too goddam greedy and parochial to be able to do anything with it.  I mean, both Greece and Turkey (BOTH NATO allies) have sizable F16 fleets and Leopard parks, *aimed at each other* of all the stupid goddamn idiocies.

    But sure, if you take for granted all the ways in which The West are a buncha assholes, yeah, the cost-benefit analysis says Western jets aren’t high on the list.  I mean, when fucking GERMANY can’t be arsed to send Taurus cruise missiles which are so *obviously* needed, why bother arguing about Western jets?

  75. 75.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani:

    So, would Bronk’s observations about contesting Russian CAP really constitute decisive advantage in the war?

    He didn’t say “decisive advantage”.  He argued they would have a significant impact and enable UA airforce to do a much better job of close air support.

  76. 76.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: he also pointed out that without western fighters, When eventually Ukraine runs low on air defense missiles ( because NATO doesn’t make them in the quantities that Russia does), then Russian bombers can start attacking Ukrainian cities.  This is somewhat longer term, but it’s a real big problem that Ukraine needs to avoid.

  77. 77.

    way2blue

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The energy Ukraine must expend daily to push the U.S. to relent on providing weapon systems—whose need is obvious even to me—hammers the sense that Ukraine is not yet considered a peer.  Even so.  In those F-16 photos, Zelenskyy looks the happiest I’ve seen him in a long long while.

  78. 78.

    YY_Sima Qian

    A few dozen F-35s supported by a few E-2D AWACS would give the Ukrainian Air Force a pretty decisive advantage in the air, but that is not a realistic option. It would take the Ukrainian Air Force much longer to be able exploit the capabilities they offer, & the US would not want to risk losing one over Russian held territory, & have the Russians & Chinese pore over the wreckage for secrets.

    However, I think the RuAF is very badly outmatched by NATO in the air. While Soviet/Russian fights have had outstanding aerodynamics since the MiG-29 & the Su-27, & their engines are still competitive, they have since fallen pretty far behind the West & China on stealth (the Su-57 is still largely missing from the battlefield), avionics (still no AESAs on Russian fighters), & air to air weaponry (the R-73 IR homing & R-77 active radar homing missiles are now outclassed by their Western, Israeli & Chinese counterparts in range, kinetic performance & seeker performance). Russian AWACS are far fewer in number & less capable than Western (& Chinese) platforms. This is to say nothing of training, tactics & doctrine. The reason Russia retains an advantage over Ukraine in the air is because the Ukrainian AF is much smaller & its airframes are even older & even more obsolescent/obsolete. Even so, the Russian military has not been able to fully exploit this advantage for fear of sustaining high losses.

  79. 79.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I would agree that artillery systems & munitions, as well as air dropped long range stand off PGMs, should be prioritized over new fighters if there is resource constraint, for more immediate impact. However, I see no over evidence that NATO countries are so resource constrained right now that one stream will crowd out the other.

  81. 81.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Germany is not utilizing its constrained defense spending resources in the most efficient/effective manner, either:

    An Expensive Bet: Making Sense of Germany’s Acquisition of Arrow 3
    Background of the deal
    In response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Germany is bolstering its air defense capabilities. This commitment is exemplified through the establishment of the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) in collaboration with partner nations, complemented by the procurement of multiple air defense systems. Central to this strategic shift is the aspiration to deploy long-range missile defense systems within the Luftwaffe’s arsenal.
    In response to this new requirement, the German Ministry of Defense is currently closing in on a final contract signature with the Israeli government and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) for the procurement of the Arrow 3 missile defense system. As a result, there has been an ongoing dialogue surrounding the advantages and disadvantages of this potential acquisition. This article seeks to offer a thorough examination of the Arrow 3’s capabilities, its potential applications, and the associated benefits and drawbacks linked to this proposed agreement.

    …

    Russia does not currently field any IRBMs that require exo-atmospheric interception. The Iskander has a quasi-ballistic flight profile that does not quite leave the atmosphere, so the Arrow 3 would not be able to intercept it. The Kinzhal flies a higher trajectory & has proven to be vulnerable to interception by the Patriot PAC3. € 4B is a lot of money to be spent on addressing a threat that does not currently exist.

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