Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

This really is a full service blog.

Not all heroes wear capes.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

I was promised a recession.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 551: Another Day Another Russian Bombardment

War for Ukraine Day 551: Another Day Another Russian Bombardment

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: Everything that can be prepped to get the house ready is done. I’ve got some cooking to do tonight. Tomorrow by noon I’ll make the call to stay or evacuate down to my brother and sister in laws depending on how the models firm up over night. They’ve been tracking farther west all day. Which is good for us. However, I’m pooped from working outside all day to get things prepped, so tonight’s update is going to be brief.

The Russians opened up on the Ukrainians again overnight.

On the night of August 28, russian terrorists attacked Ukraine with 4 Kalibr cruise missiles and two Kh-59 guided aviation missiles. The air defense systems destroyed 4 out of 6 targets. Unfortunately, there was a direct hit on an oil refinery in the town of Hoholeve in the Poltava region, which was operating during the night shift. Currently, there are reports of 2 casualties and 5 injured.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Our defense industry will yield better results – address by the President of Ukraine

28 August 2023 – 21:31

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today was a long and meaningful day of discussions and meetings. International events, our communication, the Ukrainian agenda.

A brief report.

The key thing, of course, is the Staff. It concerned what we’re doing now and what we need to be prepared for. First of all, the frontline. First of all, the Kupyansk direction, the key spots in Donetsk region – Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka, and the southern directions, in particular, Orikhiv. Reports by Generals Zaluzhny, Syrskyi, and Tarnavskyi.

A report by the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate on the plans of the occupiers. We will respond to their intentions. We will. And in a way they do not expect.

There were several reports from government officials and the military on reinforcing our border regions, and the issue of finances for this has been resolved.

There was a separate meeting on our Ukrainian arms production. The Ministry of Strategic Industries, Ukroboronprom, and heads of domestic production facilities. Artillery made in Ukraine. Shells made in Ukraine. Drones, missiles, armored vehicles. We are maximizing production capacity. Ukraine can do it. Funding is available. Our defense industry will yield better results.

We have two tasks for the next meeting of the Staff. The first is a report on preparations for the winter. Various aspects, including security. Second: a program of preparation for the use of new combat aircraft. Politically, everything has already been done. Agreements have been reached. The key thing now is to prepare the infrastructure efficiently and quickly. This is already a military task.

And one more thing. There was a report by law enforcers on the inspection of the military medical commissions across the country. We are bringing this issue for consideration by the National Security and Defense Council. We will present the report and decision to the public.

I thank everyone who works for Ukraine! Glory to each of our warriors!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

“I want to show you that being beautiful and happy is possible, regardless of anything!”

Ruslana Danilkina. Unbreakable.

At the age of 18, she left her native Odesa and volunteered to go to war. She became a communications operator. On February 10, 2023, a russian cluster bomb hit her car in the Kherson region. Ruslana lost her leg.

She underwent several difficult surgeries. Prosthetics. Rehabilitation.

She lives a full life. She travels. She helps other wounded people return to normal life.

“I want our country to have no pity for people whom war has left its mark on. People who have been injured remain the same people they were. Only each of them has their own story of struggle, a story of fear and victory. I want every person who has sacrificed themselves to not be afraid to return into society and interact with people.”

Robotyne:

The Ukrainian flag over Robotyne.

The liberation of the village of Robotyne was only officially confirmed today. However, the video of the Ukrainian flag flying over Robotyne went round the world 5 days ago.

Soldiers of the 47th Mechanized Brigade, famed for their battles in Zaporizhzhia, are talking about this operation:

Here’s a rundown of the units involved in Robotyne. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App followed by the remainder of the thread that didn’t get picked up by the app:

I think it’s fair to say he general consensus has been the UA advance during this offensive have been slow. But most analysts also agree there is a big unknown factor and that is the attrition ratio of the two forces fighting. 
Over the last few months, RuAF have gradually allocated reserves for the defense of the Robotyne axis. A few weeks ago (a month?), they moved 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division from Kherson oblast towards Robotyne . 
During the last week or so, they also decided to move the 76th Guards Air Assault Division which was kept in reserve in Luhansk Oblast. This unit is considered to be the best they have.Image
Before the offensive, I believed RuAF had plenty of reserves in the area, and I still believe that was true. I think RuAF moving two VDV divisions to defend against the UA advance is a sign of high attrition among the regular RU forces. 
It seems RuAF have decided to keep counter attacking instead of falling back to their prepared defenses, I think this along with the arrival of DPICM is part of the reason for the high attrition of RuAF. 
It’s also worth pointing out RuAF have committed 2 VDV divisions and one brigade in the Bakhmut area to stop the AFU advances. 
Since VDV and Naval Infantry is what RuAF rely on for offensive maneuvers, they are most likely degrading their over all future offensive potential using them defensively. 
It remains to be seen how RuAF will utilize the 76th GAAD in the area. This fight is far from done, but I predict we will keep seeing a slow grind well in to the fall/winter. 

Kherson:

Hunting exotic beasts.

The latest proud development by russia’s military-industrial complex, a sophisticated mobile coastal radar station for over-the-horizon detection called PREDEL-E, unveiled only last June, has been destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the Kherson region. The Leer-2 electronic warfare system shielding the radar was also eliminated.

🎥 Operational Command South

Kharkiv:

Korenevo, Moscow Oblast:

Schetnovka, Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Unidentified drone killed a Russian Police Lt. Colonel while he was mowing grass on his lawn on his day off in the village of Schetinovka, Belgorod Oblast. This is reported by local news. He died as a result of an explosion from munitions dropped by said unidentified drone.

He was the deputy head of one of the departments of the regional Main Department of Economic Security and Anti-Corruption.

If nothing is true, anything is possible!

Trying to observe Prigozhin’s Telegram network of channels in the past two days. There are a few dozen of these, each of various different sizes, from fairly small to large with hundreds of thousands. Complicating the situation is that there are a lot of fake ones.

Most went dead quiet since the mutiny but got more active with time and shut again when Pringles passed. A few big channels share the same message that came from the “main” one:

“Dear friends. Once again, we draw your attention to the fact that a huge number of fakes and throw-ins have appeared in the media and blogs that have nothing to do with reality. Please do not distribute unverified information.” – this was shared yesterday.

Hard to say if they’re hinting at Pringles’s death being fake, but someone’s still in control of these channels. Highly doubt that Pringles is still alive, but curious to see how his influence remains present even after his death.

That’s enough for tonight!

Your daily Patron!

There is a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those won’t embed here, so click across and give it a look.

Open thread!

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  • Adam L Silverman
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  • Hallmark
  • japa21
  • Jay
  • Jinchi
  • Omnes Omnibus
  • Prescott Cactus
  • Priest
  • Roger Moore
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    49Comments

    3. 3.

      Alison Rose

      Jeez, the picture in that first tweet…it looks like a gateway to hell. Terrifying enough to see it on a screen, I can’t imagine being faced with this shit day after day in real life.

      I trust and believe that this kitten will grow up to kill orcs, even if right now it is tiny enough to nap inside a boot. (If any of our translators feel so inclined, I’d love to know what is being said to the little fluffball.)

      Thank you as always, Adam. Best wishes for safety to you and others in the potential path.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      cain

      Such resilience and on the attack – I hope they continue to grind their way to victory. The attrition is a bit worrisome but hopefully the RU folks are forced to be resourced starved in terms of men and munitions.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      gene108

      A random thing I noticed, in the converting metro stations to classrooms @ 0:16 second mark the restroom has a squat toilet.

      I didn’t realize they are used in parts of Europe.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      dr. luba

      @Alison Rose: It’s in surzhyk, the russian-Ukrainian creole, and the woman is calling the kitten a little soldier, saying he’s getting ready to leave/move out, tonight perhaps.  Jokingly, of course.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      dr. luba

      @gene108: Squat toilets are a very Soviet era thing.  The subways are Soviet era, so……  Most newer construction has western unitazes (toilets).

      Reply
    9. 9.

      gene108

      @cain:

      From what little bits I know of Russian history, they never seem to be starved for men to throw into the meat grinder during a war. The Russian population is larger than the European countries they attack or are attacking them.

      The amount of Ukrainian losses will be important to how Ukraine does. Russia, relative to its opponents, has always had a seemingly limitless supply of people to throw into their army.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      Roger Moore

      @gene108:

      From what little bits I know of Russian history, they never seem to be starved for men to throw into the meat grinder during a war.

      “Seem” is doing a lot of work there.  Russia has always had more men of military age than its neighbors, but that hasn’t meant they weren’t starved for troops.  It takes training and experience to turn a civilian into a soldier, and the time it takes for that to happen can be enough to lose the war.  If you send them into combat before they’re properly trained, you’ll just increase your casualties without achieving much.  It also takes people working in war industries to keep the war effort going, and drafting people to send off to war depletes those industries.

      I fully expect Russia to start encountering both these problems.  Yes, Russia has a large population, but their birth rate has been low for a long time.  That means they don’t have nearly as many young men ready for military service as you might expect.  They’ve already started to have high casualty rates among mobiks because they’ve been thrown into combat without enough training.  And they’re definitely having trouble providing enough equipment.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Geminid

      @gene108: Some observers say that while Russia may have plenty of raw human material, its means of training and equipping new soldiers could constrain the effectiveness of Russia’s forces going forward. But this question, llike the question of Russian morale, can only be answered by results on the battlefield.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Jay

      @gene108:

      In both 1917 and 1945, Ruzzia and the Soviet Union ran into manpower shortages.

      Even though they massed more soldiers than all the other allies combined, they relied on raw manpower and arty, rather than skilled manpower, tactics and strategy.

      To solve the problem in both cases, like now, they introduced greater conscription, lower the age to 16 and raising it to 70, along with street sweeps grabbing any male regardless if they were “protected*” or not.

      *Eg, critical to war production.

      Technically, you have to sign a contract volentarily to wind up in the SMO, that’s not happening.

      Reply
    20. 20.

      Carlo Graziani

      Defmon’s comments on Russian forces “attacking” in the Robotyne area are extremely interesting, and his perception that they do so for political reasons strikes me as likely correct. There’s an echo here of Hitler’s pointless “stand fast” orders to the Wermacht and Waffen SS in 1944-45, which cost the Germans huge casualties to defend territory they were inevitably going to abandon anyway.

      In this case, the Russians seem to be pissing away the advantage of entrenched defense over offense by conducting offensive ops of their own, courting losses that they can ill-afford. My best guess is that Gerasimov and Shoigu, who hate Surovikhin, have had it up to here hearing about the marvelous “Surovikhin Line”, and want to show that the line is secondary or even unnecessary to their purposes. Idiots.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      dr. luba

      @Gin & Tonic: That may be Soviet era…….most outhouses I’ve used are bench types, often with nice toilet seats in place.  But public vs. private does make a difference.

      OTOH, my uncle in Zolotonosha had one of those, and never upgraded.  He was old and used to it.  Also pined for the Soviet era, to the consternation of the rest of the family. He was too young to actually remember the Holodomor or WWII, though.

      Even in villages, indoor plumbing is becoming a thing, along with Eurostyle windows and other fixtures.  Village houses can be quite comfortable.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Prescott Cactus

      @Alison Rose:

      Jeez, the picture in that first tweet…it looks like a gateway to hell.

      One “nice” thing about refineries is that they are built in indivdual units that operate independently from each other. Depending on the product produced, which can be changed in a couple of weeks (think winter / summer gas grades) they are segregated from each other by distance and back flow and explosive restrictors so that calamity doesn’t spread (too much).

      Under the watchful eye of EPA / OSHA and insurance adjusters I got a year and a half of my apprenticeship knocked out.  Manpower ramped up to around 500 workers doing OT for 6 months or so.

      Thank you Adam !  Keep yourself and the family safe ! ! !

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Hallmark

      Adam thanks for continuing to help us non-military folks keep up with what is going on.  It is hard enough to watch in ignorance, I imagine it is even harder for you.  Can you comment on the KilledInUkraine Twitter list?  I have now way to judge the reliability of the list or how to put the numbers in perspective.  For instance, it says 71 colonel have been killed.  Approximately how many would you guess are in Ukraine?  How many years does it take to get that rank?  How many troops would they command?

      It certainly seems like a lot of dead officers and a lot of lost experience and knowledge, but I just don’t know.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Hallmark: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.

      If that list is the one I think it is, which is being run by a social scientist somewhere in Sweden or Norway or FInland or the Baltics, then yes, I think it is reliable.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      Andrya

      @Gin & Tonic:  @Adam L Silverman:   As BJ’s token Catholic, I feel I should apologize.  I suspect- though I don’t know- that Francis simply doesn’t know much about the history of russian imperialism, and Peter’s and Catherine’s role therein.  Up until now,  Francis has been very much pro-Ukraine.  (And in Sept. 2022, a Vatican bus, marked with the Red Cross, delivering humanitarian supplies, was fired on by russian soldiers- you’d think that would clarify his thinking.)

      Reply
    30. 30.

      The Pale Scot

      @Adam L Silverman:

      I went to a Jesuit high school.

      Oy Vey, that explains a lot

      (I’ve been trying to rescue the children of my dopehead neighbor.)

      In another reality Antony would be taking the train with me into Manhattan to go to Xavier. His sister Ray Ray has to be a surfer girl. I recognize the need to be in the ocean. It’s elemental. If I can’t make that happen, I suck

      Reply
    36. 36.

      Adam L Silverman

      @StringOnAStick: I have a masters in comparative religion. And the person who supervised the political science portion of my PhD is considered the father of the study of religion and politics.

      Reply
    37. 37.

      Adam L Silverman

      @YY_Sima Qian: That and I studied with a very unique Orthodox rabbi beginning when I was seven. He was very different than just about every other rabbi, Orthodox or otherwise, in his understanding of the religion. Also, my view is basically my late father’s view washed through the Taoism I picked up doing martial arts since I was a kid and then pushed a bit farther.

      Reply
    38. 38.

      Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

      Can I just say that discovering the late (maybe), Prighozin was nicknamed “Pringles” just made my day? LMAO!😂😂

      Stay safe Adam, & thanks as always for these invaluable updates. Oh, & if you have to miss a couple because of the hurricane, don’t give it a first thought, let alone a second one.😌

      Reply
    40. 40.

      Priest

      Adam, I wish you could have known my dad. He was raised Methodist, and was a missionary in India from 49-52. Then into academy, PhD Drew, after being a Fulbright at Manchester 56-57, dissertation on Dead Sea Scrolls. In the 60s one of the early members of the American Academy of Religion, bringing religious studies into the general academic setting. I think he would have appreciated and have had a jovial take on your multi-faceted upbringing.

      Reply
    43. 43.

      Carlo Graziani

      @YY_Sima Qian:  I read your very detailed response to the question that I raised concerning China’s economic position and prospects. It’s a lot to think about. I think I will start in on Tooze’s substack that you pointed to. Thanks.

      Reply
    47. 47.

      Torrey

      @Sister Golden Bear: ​  I think you’re right that Russian history probably wasn’t covered in Argentina to any significant degree, but it seems sort of obvious that, if you’re going to make a statement citing historical figures from a country you’re not familiar with, you should do some checking. The references in this case are so specific, and so specifically awful and unwise, that I kind of wonder if someone in the Vatican has raschist sympathies and gave the Pope some bad advice about who to refer to.​​

      Reply
    48. 48.

      Andrya

      @Jinchi:  Kind of a stereotype, no?  I didn’t say that I felt guilty, just that I felt someone should apologize for the Catholic community as Francis’ comments were really, really bad.  As it happens, I was raised a Protestant, went to public schools (including college) and converted to Catholicism at age 24.  I never once had a nun as a teacher, and the nuns I personally know are all social justice firebrands.

      Reply
    49. 49.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Carlo Graziani: Tooze 1st, then Luk, is my recommendation.

      I think Luk’s analysis is important because he is the only one I have read that attempts to dig one or two layers deeper, or at least sets up the terms of any such exercise, which is necessary to actually grapple with any issue. Almost all of the other commentators base their analysis on top line aggregates (as in Macro Econ 101), supported by anecdotes (which needs to be done very carefully w/ a country as large & diverse as China).

      Tooze is also great this way, plus an amazing ability to pull disparate, seemingly unrelated, strands together to form a complex, nuanced & yet coherent picture. A historian’s sensibility, so to speak. However, he cannot provide the same depth of analyses on every topic out there, it is humanly impossible for any individual.

      A few more good resources: Lauri Myllyvirta & David Fishman on anything related to China’s energy & power sectors (coal, hydro, nuclear, renewable, grids, etc.). Fishman also regularly provides a ground level view (largely sympathetic & always empathetic) of the implementation of Xi’s signature poverty reduction & rural revitalization programs, which often involve ethnic minority regions.

      For China’s engagement w/ the Global South, I recommend the China-Global South Project, & especially its daily news letter & podcast, as well as the the immense series of papers at the China Local/Global project at the Carnegie Endowment, plus scholarly research by Deborah Brautigam & the China Africa Research Initiative at JHU, Brad Parks & AidData at College of William & Mary, Kevin Gallagher & the Global Development Policy Center at BU.

      For China in all of its varied aspects (elite politics, economics, society, international relations, business, S&T, arts & entertainment, sports, history, etc.), all of is incredible diversity, & all of the goods/bads/uglies, see the China Project, & especially its Sinica Podcast.

      Of course, all of the people I have cited, could be wrong, too.

      Reply

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