(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Housekeeping note: It has been quite the day here at the bunker! Nothing bad, something actually quite good, but it has made today very hectic. Tomorrow and Saturday will be as well. I’m hoping to get an Israel-Hamas war update in for you all sometime over the weekend, but for now just some by the numbers Ukraine war updates.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The immediate priority is to digitize the entire supply accounting for the defense forces – address of the President of Ukraine
12 October 2023 – 20:23
I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!
The main points of today:
I held a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff.
As always, the commanders reported on the situation at the front – the main directions and the most contested areas. What the occupiers are trying to do, and our rebuff.
Special attention is currently being paid to both Kharkiv region and the South, as well as Donetsk region, especially the battles near Avdiivka. I am grateful to every warrior and every unit for their resilience.
In general, we have reason to commend the 53rd and 110th Separate Mechanized Brigades, the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade, and our powerful 79th Airborne Assault Brigade. Only these days, and only the warriors of these brigades have already destroyed hundreds of occupier’s armored vehicles.
Of course, I cannot but mention the results of the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade, which is fighting in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Thank you, warriors! Traditionally accurate.
Today at the Staff meeting, we discussed, among other things, how to provide our warriors with more of our own Ukrainian weapons capabilities. We are grateful to every leader, every country that helps us with weapons, equipment, and ammunition. And we are doing everything to increase the supplies. By the way, yesterday’s “Ramstein” meeting helped with this. But it is evident that the state’s fundamental course is our own production, our own weapons, equipment, our own ammunition for all positions needed for the defense forces. Everything – from missiles and drones to armored vehicles and ammunition of the required calibers.
The Minister of Strategic Industries has already presented reports to me on several fronts: “armor,” missiles, and ATGMs. Today, at the Staff meeting, the Deputy Prime Minister for Innovations presented a report on EW – electronic warfare. We are developing a comprehensive program for all these directions with clear timelines and volumes.
Another immediate priority is to digitize the entire supply accounting for the defense forces. Digitalization will provide a clear understanding of how our warriosr are being supplied and where deficits are occurring and how they are being filled. This is crucial so that we can promptly show every one of our partners information about each unit of weaponry supplied. It’s essential that the reports here in Kyiv match the actual facts on the front lines.
I also received a report from the Foreign Intelligence Service on the situation around Israel and the Middle East region in general at the Staff meeting. We are monitoring all the information and maintaining contacts with partners to prevent destabilization. We clearly understand that the only one interested in the worst-case scenario is our enemy. I’m grateful to everyone worldwide who is making efforts to prevent an explosion in the Middle East and to hold terrorists accountable for their actions against Israel – against children, women, and ordinary people. We also remember the citizens of other countries who have been taken hostage or killed by terrorists. There are Ukrainians among the casualties. My condolences to all who have lost their loved ones!
This is extremely important – and important for everyone in the world, even for those who may not yet understand it – that terrorists always be held accountable for the evil they inflict.
A few more points.
There are the first sanctions from the United States against companies that have violated the globally established price caps for Russian oil. Thank you for taking such a sanctions step. It is important to continue the pressure and deprive Russia of the ability to finance aggression through any energy resources.
There is a decision by the International Olympic Committee, which suspended the membership of the Russian Olympic Committee. Everyone in the world should respect the territorial integrity of nations and the UN Charter. And if someone in Russia thinks they can use sports and the Olympic movement as a weapon, that will definitely not work. Thank you to everyone who defends the principles of Olympism.
And a long-awaited step for historical truth. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe recognized the Holodomor of 1932-33 as the genocide of the Ukrainian people. Grateful to all the members of the PACE who voted for such recognition. Justice is always stronger.
Thank you to everyone who defends Ukraine! Glory to our strong people!
Glory to Ukraine!
The Russians appear to have decided to throw a whole lot of whatever they’ve got at Avdiivka.
Avdiivka. We are holding our ground. It is Ukrainian courage and unity that will determine how this war will end. We must all remember this. @ZelenskyyUA
📷 Oleg Palchyk pic.twitter.com/pt6qSEHCr3
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 12, 2023
I have thoroughly reviewed a video recorded on the morning of October 12th, which includes aerial footage of the Avdiivka area and its immediate surroundings.
After comparing the video with satellite imagery from the previous week, I have identified a total of 58 new vehicles… pic.twitter.com/3OFhq6yQHg
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 13, 2023
I have thoroughly reviewed a video recorded on the morning of October 12th, which includes aerial footage of the Avdiivka area and its immediate surroundings.
After comparing the video with satellite imagery from the previous week, I have identified a total of 58 new vehicles that appear to be destroyed, disabled, or stationary.
Among these, it is highly probable that at least 45 vehicles belong to Russian forces, while the remaining vehicles fall into categories with varying levels of confidence.
The total number of vehicles identified is 58, with the distribution as follows:
High Confidence: 45
Medium Confidence: 6
Low Confidence: 7To have a better understanding, I have organized these vehicles into three distinct groups: High Confidence, Medium Confidence, and Low Confidence categories.
High Confidence: These vehicles almost certainly belong to the Russian forces and are either destroyed, damaged, or abandoned.
Medium Confidence: The vehicles in this category are damaged or destroyed and likely belong to Russia. However, their shape or location may introduce some reasonable doubt as to whether they are Ukrainian or Russian vehicles.
Low Confidence: In this group, it remains unclear whether the vehicle is destroyed, damaged, or still active but was static at the moment of filming. Vehicles that could be Ukrainian or Russian with equal chance also fall into this category.
The video coverage was not comprehensive in the southern area and the southwestern part, where Russian forces attempted to advance as well. Consequently, the losses in these areas are likely to be significantly higher, as they have been documented and published:
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1712579164157448350
Taking the most conservative estimate, we are discussing a minimum of 45 destroyed Russian vehicles, out of which 42 are Armored Fighting Vehicles (such as Tanks, APCs, and IFVs), and 3 are transportation vehicles (small and large trucks). The count does not include motorcyclesI have documented the vehicle locations and will prepare a comprehensive report with visual confirmations as soon as high-resolution commercial satellite imagery covering the area becomes available for purchase.
More from Tatarigami. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
In recent days, Avdiivka, an operationally vital settlement near Donetsk, emerged as a frontline hotspot. Our team has prepared this brief follow-up report to offer an overview of recent developments that took place between October 10th and 11th. 🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/rI8HKzN0Ko
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 12, 2023
2/ On October 10th, Russian forces launched a ground offensive from Krasnohorivka and Vodiane, aiming to encircle Avdiivka. This assault featured an unusual use of armored vehicles, departing from their prior reluctance in large-scale armored attacks.3/ The significant number of tanks and APCs highlights the Russian forces’ intention for swift and overwhelming offensives on the flank and rear. They used artillery, air support, and their armored units to suppress, overrun, and at times, capture Ukrainian positions.4/ Yet, Russian forces’ advance decelerated. Despite reaching the northeast of Stepove, a rear area of Avdiivka, they faced minefields, anti-tank resistance, and artillery fire, resulting in significant losses and hindering their ability to exploit their initial success.5/ Our most conservative estimate suggests that the Russian side suffered a minimum of 36 vehicle losses, which include abandoned, damaged, or destroyed vehicles. These losses predominantly consist of APCs, tanks of various configurations, and transportation vehicles.6/ It is premature to say whether Russian forces will achieve substantial advances in the upcoming days, given the challenging situation for both sides. However, it is already clear that the assault has proven to be highly costly for the attackers7/ We conclude that our prior concerns about the Russian reserves were justified, as they were able to allocate resources for this operation, despite their concurrent operations in Kupiansk and in the South. However, their offensive capabilities appear to be still limited.8/ This update was compiled using a blend of satellite imagery and OSINT sources.Geolocation: @EjShahid @blinzka @GeoConfirmed @AndrewPerpetua @Deepstate_UA
Photos and videos: @NOELreports @bayraktar_1love
The video links are provided in the image descriptions.
9/ I kindly ask you to like and share the initial message in this thread. The ‘Frontelligence Insight’ project will release a significant update next week, so don’t forget to follow. These materials and imagery are available thanks to the support received through Buy Me A Coffee
Source: https://t.co/gaZ4BW9ONd
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 12, 2023
DeepState latest update on Avdiivka and Bakhmut engagements.https://t.co/vhJnDT5Aji pic.twitter.com/2g1EzgBTud
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 12, 2023
The 59th brigade of Ukraine fighting Russians on one of the flanks on Avdiivka front. Video by @vkrainets https://t.co/m1C1c17Rv8 pic.twitter.com/drDELe3eri
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 12, 2023
Repelling one of Russian attacks on Avdiivka front. https://t.co/R4RLQ7LoAN pic.twitter.com/WhxyTdhOST
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 12, 2023
As said, Javelin strike on Russian BMP, Avdiivka fronthttps://t.co/r5kezSSjJI pic.twitter.com/abGwUai0f4
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 12, 2023
Hroza:
Police identified all those killed in missile attack on cafe in Hroza. Russia is responsible for death of 59 local residents. All victims are local residents. Entire families of several generations are gone.
19 people were identified using mobile DNA laboratories. One victim, a… pic.twitter.com/Mz0iU2Rq1L
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 12, 2023
Police identified all those killed in missile attack on cafe in Hroza. Russia is responsible for death of 59 local residents. All victims are local residents. Entire families of several generations are gone.
19 people were identified using mobile DNA laboratories. One victim, a 60-year-old man, was identified by forensic experts as having 20 body parts.
We remember. We will not forgive.
We talked to the survivors from Hroza after one of the bloodiest Russian attacks and tried to tell their stories.#DecodingUkraine
https://t.co/cUOYUXuNbB pic.twitter.com/vI5zmCrNKb
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 12, 2023
Police identified all those killed in missile attack on cafe in Hroza. Russia is responsible for death of 59 local residents. All victims are local residents. Entire families of several generations are gone.
19 people were identified using mobile DNA laboratories. One victim, a 60-year-old man, was identified by forensic experts as having 20 body parts.
We remember. We will not forgive.
Between Horlivka and Yasynuvata:
A bridge between Horlivka and Yasynuvata was destroyed. Also Russian 3-STS "Akhmat" armored vehicle can be seen destroyed under the bridge.
Judging by the fact that the bridge was destroyed during the large scale Russian attack on Avdiivka, one can assume that the idea behind… pic.twitter.com/7Jm9g1b1L2— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 12, 2023
I did not see this coming!
IOC Executive Board suspends Russian Olympic Committee with immediate effect.
IOC statement: pic.twitter.com/vS7YoT1MLx
— IOC MEDIA (@iocmedia) October 12, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Met with the new Ambassador of Great Britain to 🇺🇦@MartinHarrisOBE ☺️ pic.twitter.com/0sKqxmnwI9
— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 12, 2023
And there’s a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click across and give it a look if you like.
Open thread!
Alison Rose
About damn time. It couldn’t possibly be seen as anything but, at least not by people with souls.
Good to see the IOC do something right. I really hope they don’t allow any of this “neutral flag” shit to happen.
I shared this on an earlier post, but it belongs here too, of course!
Thank you as always, Adam.
cain
Thank you, Adam – with all the other stuff going on – it’s great to continue to get the news on Ukraine.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to be scarce in the comments too. I’ll try to check in though.
Dan B
OT re Gaza, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett admitted that Israel is carpet bombing Gaza. And he doesn’t believe that preemies in incubators are an issue if there is no power that someone will sneak in supplies.
Feathers
Good news on the IOC. From the Twitter account Base of Ukrainian Sport:
This account keeps track of Russian athletes who are actively supporting the invasion of Ukraine, as well as Ukrainian athletes competing in international sport They do post in Ukrainian, but Twitter’s google translation seems to handle it easily (above quote is from the machine translation)
However, they do point out that the IOC has not kicked the Russians from the Russian Olympic Committee out of their positions on the Board of the IOC:
https://x.com/ukrsportbase/status/1712510633583710659?s=46&t=mG9oWY_sUs8FMjuoMPDDQQ
ETA translation noted
Martin
@Dan B: Worth noting that the headlines are increasingly of the tone ‘humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza’ suggesting that politically, Hamas is succeeding here because they are successfully goading Israel to overstep.
The Israeli people deserve nothing but sympathy from what happened the other day, and Hamas is deserving of whatever scorn can be heaped on them, but the Israeli government is determined to throw whatever political goodwill they were afforded in the garbage by committing similar acts against Palestinian civilians.
oldster
I’m glad that the rascists are having as much difficulty moving fast as the Ukrainians have had. Between the mines, the drones, the artillery, and the wide-open fields, it is a difficult environment for fast conquest of acreage.
So, it slows down to a static slog. But Ukraine is being smarter about attriting the opposition and not wasting their own resources. And, they have the armory of the West behind them. They make progress slowly, but they make it. I give them the better odds in the long run
Interesting about that bridge being dropped. Looks like a big bridge, dropped by a big bomb of some kind. Could that be the first sign of an ATACMS? Alternatively, is that evidence that the Ukrainian Air Force managed to get a jet close enough to use a few substantial JDAMs bombs? I suppose it could also be saboteurs on foot?
YY_Sima Qian
The Russian assault at Avdiivka shows that they still have sizable reserves they can utilize, & can still execute a surprise attack w/ minimal warning to the Ukrainians. OTOH, the attack also shows that the Russian military are still incapable of utilizing combat power effectively, except via brutal force w/ high losses. After the meat grinder of Bakhmut, & the Ukrainian experience in the summer, what makes the Russian Army command think they can successfully launch a blitzkrieg against dug in defenses?
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: WP confirmed that the IDF fired at least two white phosphorus rounds into urban Gaza on 10/11. Not the kind of massive WP barrage that the Russian Army employed in Ukraine in the past winter, but still likely violations of laws of armed conflict.
Jay
@Dan B:
@Martin:
We have long known that there are Genocidal Eliminationists
on both sides.
Yarrow
Thank you, Adam. I love how everyone wants to meet Patron. The ambassador must have cheese, as keen as Patron looks.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: I would say that the Russians are using their reserves in the worst possible way, engaging in offensive actions which, as you write, and as has been clear since last year, is completely beyond their meager abilities.
A realistic appreciation of those abilities would lead them to employ those reserves in defensive actions, from prepared defensive positions, against the Ukrainians south of Orkhiv, where the progress of Ukrainian arms on the offensive has far outmatched any accomplishment of the Russians to-date.
But Gerasimov is a doctrinaire practitioner of “active defense,,” Shoigu is a clerk, and Putin handed Gerasimov his command authority on the promise that he could put the Russians back on the offensive. In my view, this is the meaning of the Avdviikva attack: it is yet another politically-inspired, strategically vacuous, operationally doomed Russian effort to support their latest Theory of Victory.
oldster
@Carlo Graziani:
That’s my analysis too, but you expressed it more convincingly.
cain
@Dan B: They are using phosphorous. I’ve started to use Al Jazeera to get my news because I need some level of balance.
I haven’t been reading many palestinian journalists and I should.
cain
@Martin:
I’m of two minds – the govt was elected by the people. So, tactically they were ok with the kind of crap going on in Gaza and West Bank. While nobody deserves to have acts of terror forced upon them – they should realize that this basically a prison break.
Hamas does indeed deserve all the scorn since they are willing to use their people’s suffering as shields. They knew that Israel would over step – but they are also Bibi’s tool – and why it continues to be a prison.
Anonymous At Work
The IOC did something right and righteous and for the right reasons. How long until the meteor hits?
cain
@Carlo Graziani:
Perhaps they think they can get more ammunition from Iran? Otherwise why deplete their reserves without a possible supply chain?
YY_Sima Qian
It is important to remember that, if the “rules based international order” (such as it is) is to be preserved, then the rules have to be applied to every country, & not just employed as a cudgel against one’s geopolitical rivals. Otherwise, at least the “rules based” part of the international order is a sham.
Threats to any “rules based international order” do not just come in the form of Russian imperialism in its “near abroad”, Iranian support for regional militancy & terrorism, North Korean disregard for nuclear non-proliferation, or Chinese coercion in the South China Sea or against Taiwan. The “rules based international order” is also undermined at a fundamental level by persistent willful ignorance of Israeli war crimes & crimes against humanity in Gaza & the West Bank, or Azerbaijan creating the conditions for ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to “voluntarily” cleanse themselves being “out of sight & out of mind”, Saudi border guards gunning down thousands of Ethiopian refugees w/o international opprobrium (& the Biden team came in vowing to ostracize MBS), & India assassinating critics among its diaspora in foreign countries & paying little meaningful price w/ the West, all of which happened just in 2023 to date. Such double standards may not register much in DC, Brussels & London, but it is blindingly obvious in the ROW, & has been for decades. Any kind of “rules based international order” needs the buy-in of most of the world, including most of the Global South. A group of self-satisfied industrialized Western democracies dictating terms while patting themselves on the back does not an order make, especially when liberal democracy itself is under threat in so much of the West.
Anonymous At Work
@cain: Gerasimov doesn’t accept that kind of talk and you will lead the next charge! </sarcasm>.
Seriously, I think Gerasimov promised Putin an offensive and is delivering on the promise. It’s not like the people dying are “real” Russians, ethnic white Russians, nor are they related to the generals ordering the attacks.
The major frustration is the mobiks not realizing the reality of their situation.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Pretty much, to at least hold the mechanized units in reserve to counterattack the shoulders of any breach in defenses.
Cameron
@YY_Sima Qian: The clearest explanation of the rules-based order was made by George W. Bush: “You’re either with us or against us.”
Traveller
@Martin: I am going to ask the difficult question: “Just who is a Civilian?” If you shout and parade and are joyous at the murdering of others…are you a Civilian? Clearly a child carrying ammunition to fighters is not a Civilian…what is a child that is observing and marking the advance of opposition forces…are they a Civilian? May you kill them…sorry to say, rip flesh from their bodies and bones until they are dead?
This is not an Academic question to planners or especially soldiers in the field.
It is difficult to kill follow human beings…there is a good and natural hesitation, and it is this truth that I think led to the overrunning of the Israeli military bases near the border…and infuriates me…I entirely sympathetic to soldiers at 6:30 in the morning going…What the Hell? Some seemed to fight back, some were slaughtered where the stood in their natural confusion at what was happening around them.
Seeing these solders bodies and in at least one video their head being cut off makes me crazy. The families dead and even their children laying in a pools of blood does not bother me as much as dead, half dressed, soldiers.
But back to the main question, is the cutting off fuel, electricity and water to Gaza unwarranted or the only possible strategy?
Take some control of Gaza City…ask a Gazan, where are the hostages? Receive a reply, “I don’t know…” where are the tunnels? I don’t know, they answer. You insist, ask your friends…everyone continues to deny any knowledge….At what point does the population become complicit?
I will end with noting that we did not leave Hitler’s government in power…the were scrubbed out; likewise the Japanese Government was not left to Rule Japan…that was left to MacArthur.
Hamas must be removed from Gaza…entirely. Best Wishes, Traveller….and I of course don’t mind being attacked on this posting. I will think on any responses….the issue is important to me.
Jay
@Traveller:
Hamas will not be removed from Gaza. They are too important to Israel.
And the question you asked about Gazan’s has long been asked by the other sides about Israel.
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
I used to know human rights activists who’d done a lot of work lobbying especially in the seventies and eighties when that cause became big in Washington. They very much believed in this kind of universal morality, and they were also very cynical about how standing up for it meant you had to be ready to work with every faction in politics, but also be ready to be backstabbed by every faction in politics as soon as you started advocating for the “wrong” people.
So they’d be working with hard-right Republicans on human rights promotion and refugee admissions for Cubans, Chinese, Southeast Asians, and East Europeans, and the next day they’d be working with New Left and civil rights activists to do the exact same thing for Central Americans, South Africans, and Palestinians. Everybody had their very specific causes they cared about, few actually cared about universalizing it and many would get offended it you tried.
And that’s just navigating political factions within one government.
Geminid
The ship Eneida is reported to have reached the port of Malaga, Spain. The Eneida is one of 3 ships that sailed from ports near Odesa and made their way to the Bosphorus Strait by way of the coastal route opened by the Ukrainian Navy. It is delivering a large load of wheat.
bookworm1398
@18. Don’t forget Guantanamo. And I believe India specifically said their targeted assasination was the same as US drone strikes.
I want to note this because while the US can criticize and influence other countries, there is only one army whose behavior it can control – the US.
way2blue
The thought that’s been haunting me lately is… if/when Trump becomes the Republican candidate for President—what sort of national security briefings will he get? Will it depend on whether or not he’s been convicted in the classified documents case? Or the Jan 6th insurrection case? Or the Georgia election case? Will he be briefed on anything actionable. Ack.
oldster
“Seeing these solders bodies and in at least one video their head being cut off makes me crazy. ”
Terrorists want to terrorize you. Watching their videos is assisting them in their aims.
Don’t let the jargon of “bearing witness” fool you into thinking you are doing something noble and necessary by watching the propaganda that terrorists produce. It is not noble to help the terrorists to terrorize anyone, even yourself.
Refusing to watch terrorist propaganda does not mean turning a blind eye or a deaf ear to what happened. There is no lack of factual information about what happened. For the purposes of anyone who wishes to see clearly and act wisely, no gruesome details are necessary: we know that terrorists committed atrocities, and that is the information we must act on.
But watching torture porn produced by fanatics is not healthy for anyone. It’s not meant to be: they filmed it in order to make you crazy. Why help them accomplish their aims?
Don’t watch it, don’t share it, don’t spread it.
Steeplejack
@oldster:
Well said.
Chris
@Traveller:
Civilians aren’t required to help an army achieve its objective in order to be considered civilians. That would, in fact, make them the opposite of civilians, and forcing them to do this would mean rejecting the very concept of civilian status for anybody in a war zone. Yes, even if you like the army and the objectives it’s trying to achieve are worthwhile.
Jay
@oldster:
more so these days, because a lot of “it” is fakes.
Gin & Tonic
@oldster: Good advice.
cain
@Anonymous At Work:
True – and in a way they are liquidating the ‘sub-Russians” – it’s like reverse genocide.
cain
@Jay:
Exactly – it allows Israel to continue keeping Gaza as an open air prison.
Jay
@cain:
More importantly, it keeps Palestine as a unified country off the table.
Chris
@cain:
There’s something very stark about the way the West Bank/Gaza equation has turned out over the last twenty years.
Fatah tried to negotiate with Israel. Many doubt that the negotiations were ever sincere or more exactly whether they were ever realistic in what they were willing to give up, but they still sat down and negotiated for much of the nineties. To the best of my knowledge, Hamas has never done that. The most they’ve ever done is observe truces.
Fatah controls (insofar as any Palestinians do) the West Bank. Hamas controls Gaza.
The West Bank has continued to be steadily colonized by Israel for the last two decades. Gaza, they’ve mostly stayed out of.
Put yourself in the Palestinian average joe’s shoes and draw your own conclusions about who, between the “negotiate” crowd and the “armed resistance” crowd, has been more successful outcome.
Adam L Silverman
@oldster: Exactly this. Trust me, I’m reviewing this stuff to make sure I’m not posting snuff films here in the updates. If I’m not posting it, you don’t need to traumatize and terrorize yourself with it.
oldster
@Adam L Silverman:
Adam, we count on you to terrorize us *just* the right amount!
Traveller
@Chris: Oldster makes a good point…very good.
But Chris was more what I was looking for.
Yet, I fear Chris in his answer to Cain misses the closeness of…a deal in 2000.
Unforgivable.
Bill Clinton hosted an Israeli/Palestinian summit at Camp David in July 2000. In many ways that summit was premature. But as the chief U.S. negotiator at the time, Dennis Ross, told me this week, Barak led “the most forthcoming government in Israel’s history,” and Clinton seized the opportunity.
The summit failed to reach an agreement and the enemies of peace struck back. Ariel Sharon took a stroll on the Temple Mount — where Haram al-Sharif stands and non-Muslim entry is restricted — that provoked Palestinian rage. The Palestinian leadership launched the second intifada, bringing a reign of terror to Israeli streets.
Still, Clinton and negotiators persisted with meetings at Sharm al-Sheik. By the end of the year, Clinton brought the two sides to the White House. At the pivotal meeting in December, he slowly read aloud the peace plan that would come to be known as the Clinton Parameters. It called for uncomfortable sacrifices from both parties but gave each side what the U.S. negotiators believed they needed.
A few days later, the Israeli cabinet voted to accept the plan. Yasir Arafat did what he generally did. He never said no, but he never said yes.
The chances were there… Hamas delenda est
Best Wishes, Traveller
wjca
Why are you assuming that they think the blitzkrieg will be successful? Most likely, they are launching an attack because Putin demanded it. Not because they think it will work. If it keeps Putin happy, and them in their positions . . . well, what’s a bunch of sldiers and equipment?
Jay
@Chris:
so, back in the day, when the PLO was a “Government in Exile”,
there were a bunch of elected Palestinian “moderate” politicians who wanted an agreement with Israel, who all wound up dying at various Israeli hands.
The “67 gave Israel the opportunity to exchange “land for peace”, but they still want both.
Imposed agreements allowed the PLO return to the Occupied Territories and become the political party “Fatah”.
In the 1980’s, as was the trend at the time, the Mossad came up with the brilliant idea to fund and support a Radical Islamic Mullah, (as was the trend at the time), to create a political party, to split support for Fatah.
Thus, Hamas.
As Fatah dominated the PLA, and became more corrupt, Hamas gained ground in Gaza. Then, there was a Fatah/Hamas war, where the PLA “won” the West Bank and Hamas “won” Gaza.
Classical divide tactics with a huge number of self owns on all sides.
Gen. Moshe Dayan famously said to journalists when Israel took Gaza, “look at this place, what a wonderous garden we will make out of it!”
Jay
@wjca:
word is, the RuZZian MOD has been able to recruit a bunch of ex-Wagner fighters, and they have been deployed as “blocking forces” at Avdiivka.
In RuZZian military tactics, “blocking forces” shoot their own retreating troops.
wjca
There is a reason that our criminal law distinguishes between adults and children. Adults are properly held responsible for their actions. With children, the amount of responsibility is rather different.
To take one obvious example, if an adult is involved in the commission of a felony, and someone dies, that’s considered murder in the 1sr degree. Even if the adult is merely the getaway driver, and was blocks away from where the crime was committed. But a child who is involved will never face that charge. Some charges, sure (depending on the age of the child). But not top end felonies.
Seems like a similar distinction should apply to combat situations, and who does and does not qualify as a civilian.
Jay
https://nitter.net/RabbiUkraine/status/1712527992205857050#m
wjca
The opportunities for a disinformation campaign are simply awesome!
Adam L Silverman
@Traveller: I know Arafat’s senior advisor from those negotiations. He has related very clear that Arafat knew this was the best deal possible and that would ever be offered. But Arafat was afraid that if he agreed to it he and his entire family and those of his key aides and lieutenants would all be killed. Fear won that day. Specifically the fear created by the religious extremists like Hamas.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Not just religious extremists like Hamas. There were Israeli’s who would have killed them, other Palestinian groups in exile, etc.
cain
@Adam L Silverman:
That’s really good to know. Because for a long time I blamed Arafat for walking away from that deal – now things have become much worse.
Orgs like Hamas whose mission is so rigid that they are willing to kill anyone who stands in their way is why we don’t have peace.
Traveller
@Adam L Silverman: Yes, Arafat’s biography specifically noted this himself…there was, of course, for him the very real memory and sight of Sadat being assassinated as well as Rabin.
It is almost like being a competent leader is being weeded out of the gene pool….or maybe better put, being a good leader can be dangerous to your health, (eg JFK, RFK, MLK…and even Malcolm X, like him or no, he follows this mold).
This all so terrible…as is the Israeli Order, (request?) that Gazans move South…rocky ground, little infrastructure or even shade…I am not terribly sympathetic…but Palestinians were very good to me when I was in the West Bank, (for a little while…but still…) I can only sigh. Best Wishes, Travelle
TheMightyTrowel
I found this piece from Jewish Currents spoke to me as pretty far left jew (ethnic, not religious) whose instinct is to reach for peace and possibility not guns and vengeance, especially the poem from which it draws its title and which is quoted at the end
cain
@Chris: Excellent points. But Israel uses the divide and conquer method that the British/colonizer uses. Give the crazy people the money and resources so that they are constantly causing trouble and then point to them as the reason why they have to keep Palestinians under control.
I agree, it seems like if Gaza also did West Bank they would be constantly be pushed out. I don’t know what the situation is other than satyagraha.
Redshift
@way2blue:
Any briefings a candidate (or even a president-elect) gets are at the discretion of the current president. Their purpose is to help the winning candidate be up to speed well before Inauguration Day.
Even without the security concerns, the last time around TFG’s “transition” people took the carefully prepared briefings from various departments and agencies and threw them in the trash, or didn’t show up to transition meetings at all. So there’s really no good reason to provide them with anything in advance.
Anyway
@Cameron:
You’re either with us or you’re with the terrorists…
Nobody in particular
@Adam L Silverman:
Good to hear. I sent some gals here to lurk.
Before your time, maybe?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yonatan_Netanyahu
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: The best deal Israel could ever muster for the Palestinians was not particularly just for the Palestinians.
Israel understandably wants absolutely security, given the historical experience of Jews in exile. However, absolute security for one one inevitably comes at the expense of security/dignity/livelihood of others, & thus unsustainable. That is something Israel & its supporters need to come to grip w/ in search of lasting peace.
eversor
@Jay:
Those other groups are religious and extremist as well though. This is a religious conflict. And just like our own internal political problems here it’s all about religion.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: Interesting, & I think such tactical alliances still define the nitty gritty of advocacy today, & there remains the trade off of scoring tactical gains versus undermining the advancement toward universal acceptance of universal values.
karen marie
@cain: Really? It wouldn’t be the history that led to Hamas having control of half of what remains of Palestine territory?
Huh.
karen marie
@eversor: I think having their homes, land and water stolen, and being displaced by occupiers are also a factor.
YY_Sima Qian
@bookworm1398: I was only listing the breaches in 2023 that have not attracted any sustained attention in DC/Brussels/London. You are absolutely right about contraventions of the “rules based international order” by the U.S. & others. Anybody ever tried to make the U.S. pay a price for indefinite imprisonment Guantanamo, extraordinary rendition, torture, invading Iraq under false pretenses, assassinating Qassem Suleimani? The perpetrators have not been held to account under US domestic law, either. Suleimani was a cold blooded bastard w/ a lot of blood on his hands, but if Iran had assassinated Mike Pompeo or Donald Rumsfeld while one of them was visiting Iraq, how would American politicians across the spectrum react?
I am quite cynical as to the past & current state of the “rules based international order”, and any prospect for one to be birthed from current conventional wisdom prevalent in the West. However, a truly just & sustainable rules based international order, w/ most of the world’s buy-in, where transparent rules are consistently enforced wrt powers great & small, is what the world really needs.
The US is still well positioned to help bring such a vision into reality, because it is still the strongest pole by dar even in an increasingly multipolar world. Small states & middle powers everywhere, whether they are part of the Global South or the West, are likely to be quite willing to support such an enterprise that will constrain the whims & hubris of the great powers. They are not strongly invested in US primacy, & US primacy is not necessary to prevent Chinese primacy. The PRC is extremely unlikely to be ever strong enough to shape the world solely to its preference, & its neighbors are naturally inclined to balance against its rise (not to be confused w/ enthusiasm for containment). Putin’s Russia can only ever be a spoiler & an arsonist. Alas, the overwhelming majority of the natsec establishment in the US & many parts of the West are incapable of imagining any framework for international order other than US primacy.
Should the GOP ever win the WH again, whatever semblance of international order we still have will collapse, w/ the U.S. as an active destroyer/arsonist.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: As Carlo stated, I think Gerasimov expected the blitzkrieg to succeed.
Martin
@Chris: Actually, Israel did have settlements in Gaza until 2005. Israel withdrew them because of intensified attacks from Gaza.
The problem here is pretty simple – the people of Gaza do not have agency – not in the larger sense. This is obvious right now when Israel can decide to turn off the water, turn off the food, turn off the power – and do so immediately.
So you have 2 million people, in a pretty small area, with no real agency. And the people with the ability to turn off the water and the power kept sending settlers into the area to take the land of the people who lived there. I mean, what result did they think was going to happen? If you take away a persons agency, they act through what agency they do have, even if the last bit of agency is to strap a bomb to their chest and walk into a cafe.
The US knows exactly how this dynamic works. Adam knows the academics who study these power systems and how they are used, and after the last set of foreign adventures by the US into regions of lower wealth and power, which resulted in military victories and strategic defeats, those lessons should be pretty obvious.
We know what works by insurgents, and we know what leads to failure by greater powers, and this effort by Israel may be politically necessary, and it may indeed ‘defeat’ Hamas as an organization of that name, but I look at these images of the destruction in Gaza and see no alternative but that there will be ever more radicalized people in that region.
I kind of have to assume at this point that Israeli leadership wants that outcome.
AlaskaReader
Exponentials in blowback don’t follow any set formula other than they seldom become reduced values.
In any case, the current traumas will gain in mass and well as effect.
Geminid
@Geminid: The Ying Hao 01, a ship that sailed with the Eneida about two weeks ago, is reported to be transiting the Red Sea. Hamburg-based vesseltracker.com describes the Ying Hao 01 as “Chinese owned.”
Princess
@cain: I assume you feel the same way about Bush and Iraq, that all of us here are equally responsible as he for the tens of thousands of civilians deaths because of the war he started after 9/11. Not to speak of Afghanistan.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: The PRC can be relied upon to take the PRC’s side. It is not in the PRC’s interest to help Russia blockade Ukrainian grains exports & ferment a global food crisis. The PRC may not publicly reprimand Russian actions or embarrass Russia or punish Russia, but will also not actively support or magnify Russian efforts here.
WaterGirl
@Martin: Absolutely! Every word you wrote.