Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It looks like winning debates is a black job!

Cole, when it comes to calico cats, restraint is overrated.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

I desperately hope that, yet again, I am wrong.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

I was confident that someone would point it out and thought why not me.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

If you are in line to indict donald trump, stay in line.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

In short, I come down firmly on all sides of the issue.

Republicans don’t trust women.

President Biden is doing good where he can, and getting it done.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 604: What Does a Ceasefire Mean?

War for Ukraine Day 604: What Does a Ceasefire Mean?

by | 83 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

Art by NEIVANMADE of a Ukrainian painted black and outlined in blood red kneeling in grief with hands covering the face surrounded by the bodies of Ukrainians killed by Russians on a grey background. "Russia Is Committing Genocide Right Now" is across the top center of the image.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I want to return to a topic that pops up every so often in regard to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, but that is in the news again because of the Israel-Hamas war: ceasfire. Specifically, what does a ceasefire actually mean in reality and practice.

A couple of days ago several hundred congressional staffers, including both Jewish and Muslim staffers, called for the US to impose a ceasefire on on Israel and Hamas. Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez was pressed on this issue on CNN’s Newsnight two days ago as well. That video is below and it should be queued up to play at the beginning of that segment.

I’m not including it to make fun of Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez or use her as a strawwoman, but as you can see in the interview she spends about three minutes trying to externally process an answer. It is not surprising that she was unable to do so. This is not her area of expertise as a legislator. However, I would have expected her staff to have had better prepped her.

A ceasefire is defined as:

A cease-fire is an agreement that regulates the cessation of all military activity for a given length of time in a given area. It may be declared unilaterally, or it may be negotiated between parties to a conflict.

I think the first thing we need to identify is that a lot of people are using ceasefire and armistice interchangeably. From the same source:

The term armistice is sometimes used, although it has a slightly different meaning: an armistice is a military convention, the primary purpose of which is to suspend hostilities over the whole theater of war, usually for an indefinite period of time. An armistice or a cease-fire does not represent an end to hostilities, only a truce (a temporary suspension of hostilities). Furthermore, they do not reflect a juridical end to the state of war.

Regardless of which one is meant, the question, whether for Ukraine or Israel or the Gazans, is what does a ceasefire actually mean in practice. We have discussed several times that a ceasefire or armistice in the Ukraine-Russia war only rewards Putin. It freezes the conflict allowing Russia to maintain control over the parts of Ukraine that it is already illegally occupying while providing it with strategic time to refresh, refit, and rearm. In the case of the Israel-Hamas war it does not really do anything in regard to the fact that Israel is the internationally recognized occupation authority/occupier of the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, despite having pulled out of Gaza in 2005.

It would, however, freeze the conflict. And in this case that means that Hamas will sill be holding an officially indeterminate number of Israelis and non-Israelis hostage. I’ve seen reporting from reliable sources that the total number could be between 200 and 400 and that’s not including the corpses of those they killed that they also brought back to Gaza. It also rewards Hamas for the attack. Specifically, it teaches Hamas, and similar violent extremist organizations – what we used to call terrorist groups – both foreign and domestic, that if they undertake a large enough and successful enough operation that they can get away with it because everyone is afraid the response will be so out of proportion that it is better to just stop any response.

This is not a call for Israel to flatten Gaza and bounce the rubble. Rather it is the realization that in war, whether interstate or low intensity, prematurely imposing a ceasefire or armistice may actually be adding further harm and injury to the aggrieved party. This is certainly the case in regard to trying to force a ceasefire onto Ukraine and get them to the negotiating table ASAP. It is also the case in regard to the Israel-Hamas war. Yair Rosenberg asks the right questions in regard to this issue:

Ceasefires and armistices sound great in practice. No one of good conscience on either side of any war want civilian populations not party to the conflict to be harmed. But prematurely imposing a ceasefire or armistice simply rewards the initiator of the specific conflict. And yes, the Palestinians have lots of reasons to revolt, but that’s not what the 7 OCT 2023 attack was. This is not the third intifadeh. Rather, it was an attack by Hamas on both military and civilian targets. Just watch this interview of Khaled Mashal, Hamas’s external leader, by an excellent al Arabiya anchor and it will tell you everything you need to know about the attack from Hamas’s perspective:

And keep this bit of context in mind: Hamas pumped their fighters up with captagon, an amphetamine type of stimulant, allowed the extremists to carry out their attacks on civilians calmly and indifferently.

The civilians targeted by Hamas are as unjustifiable targets as when the Israelis bulldoze a Palestinians home. And that is why if you’re going to call for a ceasefire or an armistice you have to be able to clearly articulate what it means in practice and application and why it isn’t rewarding one party to the conflict disproportionately to the other in a way that rewards the aggression and teaches others that they too can undertake something like this and get away with it.

President Zelenskyy’s daily address and the English transcript will both be after the jump.

These days, Russian losses are really impressive, and it is exactly the kind of losses of the occupier that Ukraine needs – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

20 October 2023 – 16:50

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today my team and I are in Kherson region, in Mykolaiv. There are a lot of tasks.

A meeting with the military – Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, Chief of the General Staff Shaptala, Commander of the Odesa operational-strategic grouping of troops Hnatov and Commander of the Marines Sodol, Head of the State Border Guard Service, General Deyneko. A special format, a narrow circle. Regarding the situation in Kherson and the region, in the south in general, as well as in Donetsk region – first of all, Avdiivka. I am grateful to all our guys who are holding their ground and destroying the occupier day after day. These days, Russian losses are really impressive, and it is exactly the kind of losses of the occupier that Ukraine needs. We also discussed the Kupyansk direction in Kharkiv region.

I held a meeting in Mykolaiv with the leadership of the region and the city, the military, the law enforcers to discuss the protection of the region, our infrastructure, our ports, corridors in the Black Sea. We also analyzed social issues that are important for Mykolaiv and the cities and villages of the region: energy, heat supply, water supply to Mykolaiv and the region, the quality of water supplied to the city, social services, economic activity. All the things that really need attention at all levels of government.

I am especially grateful to Denmark for their effective support of Mykolaiv, for their sincere assistance to the city, just as we agreed with Prime Minister Frederiksen.

I visited our warriors in Mykolaiv hospital who are undergoing treatment after being wounded in battles. I thanked them for their strength and thanked the doctors for their dedication to their work.

An important report by the regional head of the Security Service of Ukraine on the protection of Mykolaiv and the region from subversive activities of Russia and collaborators. Thank you for your work, guys!

Special attention is paid to protecting the sky from Russian bombs and missiles. We are working to bolster air defense. I thank everyone in the world who helps us with this.

In particular, I spoke with Olaf Scholz – regarding air defense as well. We are working together to ensure that Patriots in the hands of Ukrainian warriors can do more – already this winter. I invited Germany to take part in a meeting of advisors on the Peace Formula, which we are preparing for late October. We also discussed the situation in the Middle East with the Chancellor. I thank Olaf that our agreements are being strictly implemented.

President Biden delivered a very important, indeed historic speech. Yesterday we spoke with him – it was a good conversation, and now there is his address – powerful, timely, one that really adds to our confidence. Thank you for your unwavering support for Ukraine. The democratic world understands how important Ukraine’s resilience is for the freedom of all free nations – and not only in Europe. We can overcome all threats.

The speech by President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen the day before is also inspiring. I am grateful to Madam President for her clear call to speed up Ukraine’s path to victory. A call to everyone in Europe and the free world to be as united as possible, as long as it takes to defeat the terrorists who seek to destroy our states and our lives. Europe must prevail, not those who are trying to turn our lives into ruins.

And one more thing.

Today is the 20th anniversary of the intelligence of the Border Guard Service of Ukraine. They are heroic warriors. I had the honor to congratulate them today, to recognize them with state awards. I held a separate meeting with the border guards on the tasks they perform – they perform them effectively. And I am proud that the Border Guard Service of Ukraine and its units are only getting stronger. Glory to all of you, warriors! Glory to our strong nation! And thank you – Kherson, Mykolaiv – for today.

Glory to Ukraine!

I put this in a comment last night, but it needs to be in the actual post. As I feared and predicted:

Axios‘s Barak Ravid has the details:

The Pentagon plans to send Israel tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells that had been destined for Ukraine from U.S. emergency stocks several months ago, three Israeli officials with knowledge of the situation tell Axios.

Why it matters: The Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli Ministry of Defense told their U.S. counterparts they urgently need artillery shells to prepare for a ground invasion in Gaza — and a potential escalation of the war by Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border, Israeli officials say.

  • U.S. officials have suggested that diverting the shells from Ukraine to Israel would have no immediate impact on Ukraine’s ability to fight against Russian troops.
  • Less clear is whether U.S. military supplies to Ukraine could be stretched if the Israel-Hamas war becomes a broader regional conflict, but the Pentagon played down such concerns Thursday.
  • “We are confident we can support both Ukraine and Israel in terms of their defensive needs,” Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesperson, told reporters.

Flashback: Starting in early 2023, the U.S. began drawing down 155mm artillery shells from its considerable ammunition stockpiles in Israel to send to Ukraine.

  • At the time, the Israeli military told then-Prime Minister Yair Lapid and then-Minister of Defense Benny Gantz that there was no immediate scenario in which Israel would need an emergency supply of shells.
  • That all changed on Oct. 7, Israeli officials said.

Between the lines: The ammunition that had been destined for Ukraine was part of a U.S. weapons stockpile that is kept in Israel as part of an agreement between the countries.

  • Only U.S. military personnel have access to the weapons storage sites. But according to the agreement between the countries, Israel can use the ammunition in a war scenario in short order, with U.S. approval.
  • Israel was granted access to the ammunition during its war with Lebanon in 2006 and also during the 2014 Gaza conflict.

Driving the news: After the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, the IDF conducted an initial assessment of its urgent weapons needs and gave it to the Pentagon.

  • One of the requests was to get tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells back to fill the depleted U.S. emergency stocks in Israel, in case the Israeli military needed to use the shells on short notice, the Israeli officials said.
  • The Israeli officials said the U.S. agreed and will be sending the artillery shells to Israel in the coming weeks.

Avdiivka:

It’s like the drone gave the tank the finger at the 5 second mark.

I don’t know why the tweet above says show more as there isn’t anything else to actually show.

Russian channels continue commenting on Avdiivka with some fascinating levels of doom:

“Judging by the enemy’s video recordings, we have ALREADY lost no less equipment than they did during the entire summer campaign near Rabotino. And if they initially did not intend to hit with all their might, but only imposed local activity all summer, then the plan is quite workable.”

https://t.me/Dead_heads/519

More from Tatarigami on the ATACMS strikes in Berdiansk and Luhansk:

Recently, there has been some debate surrounding the extent of damage to Russian helicopters on Berdians’k and Luhansk airfields, sparked by @GeoConfirmed statement that at least 21 Russian helicopters were either destroyed or damaged.

While their number slightly exceeds our team’s public estimate, it’s important to note that their estimate is based on solid grounds. The challenge arises from the limitations of commercially available imagery, which do not provide the resolution needed to detect hundreds of small scorch marks around helicopters in Berdiansk.

In the case of Luhansk airport, it’s much easier since you can clearly see it from our higher-resolution imagery purchased from Planet Labs.

However, we can independently verify that multiple scorch marks from explosions are clearly visible around Mi-8 helicopters on imagery for non-commercial distribution. Unlike most Ka-52 helicopters, which were burned and destroyed, the Mi-8s likely didn’t carry ammunition that would cause explosions. Consequently, the damage might not be easily visible from the satellite or visible at all.

We opted not to incorporate these helicopters into our report because, while we recognize the possibility of their damage, there are no publicly available means to definitively substantiate it. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that even based on images from the Russian Telegram channel (link included in the image description), one can observe multiple holes on the affected helicopter, suggesting that many helicopters sustained damage, even if they did not catch fire.

It’s also worth noting that these helicopters are not in flyable condition. To transport them, the Russians had to remove their rotor blades, a process typically done to prepare helicopters for ground transportation. This observation makes the claim of damage highly plausible, which is why GeoConfirmed likely included them and reached a total number of 21

Link to their investigation, which was also based on our materials:

Kherson Oblast:

Lyman direction.

Touch not the cat bot a glove!

Little Odesa:

For those web head aficionados, that’s the Advanced Suit from the 2018 Marvel Spider-Man video game. Excelsior!

Rostov on Don:

Ukraine is making advances on its judicial reforms despite the war. Reuters has the details:

KYIV, Oct 19 (Reuters) – Vira Levko, a judge in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, typically handles dozens of administrative cases and several criminal hearings every day. And she says there are others who are far busier than her.

When Levko tells colleagues abroad about her workload, they find it hard to believe.

“They don’t understand how a judge can hold so much information in their head,” she told Reuters at the Dniprovskyi district court.

Ukraine is desperately short of judges, and is kick-starting a long-delayed nationwide hiring spree to fill more than 2,000 vacancies and vet around as many sitting judges for potential malfeasance.

The ambitious effort, undertaken during the country’s war with Russia, is key to clearing a backlog of cases that has delayed justice for many Ukrainians.

It is also central to cementing the rule of law, a condition for Ukraine to one day join the European Union.

Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had signalled his desire for Ukraine to join the EU, meaning that the fight against corruption and embracing good governance became priorities.

A poll released this month by the Razumkov Centre think-tank in Kyiv suggested only 18% of Ukrainians trust the courts, the legacy of a judicial system long eroded by corruption.

The European Commission, in a 2022 memo, said “the judiciary continues to be regarded as one of the least trusted and credible institutions”.

‘CATASTROPHE’

Attempts to reform the courts after the 2014 Maidan Revolution, which toppled a pro-Russian president and set Kyiv on a pro-Western course, were only partly successful and ran into systemic resistance, watchdogs say.

Two judicial governance bodies responsible for hiring and disciplining judges were effectively frozen for years, resulting in some 2,600 vacancies, or roughly one third of the judiciary, as judges retired or were dismissed.

Court cases have piled up across Ukraine as a result. Some courtrooms have been turned into storage spaces stacked high with case files.

The regional appeals court in northeastern Ukraine’s Sumy has only four judges left out of a full staff of 35. It faces total deadlock if just two judges retire, as they currently have the right to do.

“There is not a single court in Ukraine whose workload is normal,” said Ruslan Sydorovych, deputy head of the High Qualification Commission of Judges (HQCJ), which oversees the selection of judges.

“It’s just that in some places it’s big, and in others it’s simply a catastrophe,” he said.

The war adds an additional burden, as around 100,000 alleged Russian crimes are already being investigated.

The two governance bodies were recently relaunched under EU pressure, and around 1,100 appeals and local court vacancies will be filled in the coming months.

Sydorovych described it as the first step in a “super marathon” of hiring that could take several years and likely involve up to 7,000 interviews.

Selecting judges is only part of the challenge. Some 2,000 sitting judges also require integrity checks, part of the judicial house-cleaning launched, but never finished, after Maidan.

Halyna Chyzhyk, who served on a civic advisory council that monitors judges, said the entire process was manageable but that authorities shouldn’t try to rush it.

“If the priority is on (ensuring) quality, then you’ll need to sacrifice a bit of speed, and I think Ukrainian society understands that,” she said.

POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE

Ensuring that Ukraine’s top courts, long plagued by scandal, do not become instruments for wielding political influence could prove an even tougher task.

“We have judges who helped raid billions in property, who massively violated human rights, who hold Russian citizenship and actively helped Russia in the first days of the war,” said Mykhailo Zhernakov, of the DEJURE Foundation, an NGO in Kyiv.

The Constitutional Court, in particular, drew the ire of the EU and democracy campaigners by attempting to dismantle anti-corruption reforms before the war, and its former head is wanted in connection with several criminal cases, including bribing a witness.

Oleksandr Tupytskyi, now living in Vienna according to Ukrainian media reports, has denied wrongdoing and said the cases against him are political.

The EU recommended that Kyiv pass legislation giving international experts greater say over the make-up of the Constitutional Court, which currently has five vacancies.

But that is not an instant fix, said Zhernakov.

According to DEJURE, which tracks judicial reforms, at least two recent Ukrainian appointees to the court’s selection committee were “politically affiliated individuals with questionable reputations”.

“The biggest political difficulty is to build institutions that would be independent enough,” Zhernakov said.

The overhaul of the judiciary coincides with a broader bid to crack down on corruption, as tolerance among Ukrainians for official abuse wears thin at a time when tens of thousands have died defending Ukraine’s fragile democracy.

More at the link.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Ось як насправді відбувається процес озвучки героїв мультсеріалу!😍🎤

♬ Pes Patron – KARTA FAN

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Here’s how the process of voicing the characters of the animated series actually works! 😍🎤

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

83Comments

  1. 1.

    Mike in NC

    My wife’s cousin was planning on a visit to Beirut next month to see his brother (retired State Dept official) who lives there. Not happening now.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    I really appreciate your explanation of ceasefire, not just what it means but how it would function and why it isn’t necessarily the simple panacea some think it to be. And some people seem to have a rather…unbalanced idea of what it should mean between Israel and Hamas. It’s very helpful to have your perspective on this. However: “Just watch this interview of Khaled Mashal, Hamas’s external leader” — I hope you’ll forgive me if I take a pass. I don’t have the stomach for that.

    Video of Zelenskyy at a hospital in Mykolaiv, meeting and chatting with folks, giving out awards, taking photos. I always like watching these, even if I don’t know what’s being said.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Suzanne

    And that is why if you’re going to call for a ceasefire or an armistice you have to be able to clearly articulate what it means in practice and application and why it isn’t rewarding one party to the conflict disproportionately to the other in a way that rewards the aggression and teaches others that they too can undertake something like this and get away with it.

    A valid concern.

    For me and my very limited knowledge, I have always leaned toward no military response if there is not a good chance of success. I do not see how there is a good chance of success for a military to smoke out a terror cell. Am I mistaken? How can the IDF successfully attack Hamas?

  5. 5.

    NobodySpecial

    I find it difficult to believe that if Hamas’s external leader can give public interviews that Israel can’t find a way to reach out and touch him rather than flatten Gaza. I realize that Bibi and the fanatic wing of the government are eager to get rid of every Palestinian they can, but it’s still depressing to see how little changes over the decades.

  6. 6.

    CarolPW

    @Mike in NC: My niece is there now (working, not visiting) and it’s yet another thing to worry about.

    On the main post, it isn’t the bulldozing of the Palestinian’s houses that destroys me, it is the bulldozing of the generations-old olive trees and the tainting of the wells.

  7. 7.

    Dan B

    The desire of Bibi to drive the Palestinians  into Egypt is extremely cruel and the fact that Egypt has not opened the border may be connected.

  8. 8.

    Chetan Murthy

    @NobodySpecial: I’m certainly not qualified to judge, so you might be right in your suspicion.  I’ll just note, though, that some years back (>10yr) Israel assassinated a leader of one of the Palestinian extremist orgs in one of the Emirates (IIRC, Dubai).  It was a classic operation, and all the Israeli operatives got out.  But within …. 48hr (?) the host country’s law enforcement had cracked the entire team’s identities, got them all on videotape, and basically enough information about them to burn their careers for good.  Basically CCTV and big data is your friend.

    Again, I just don’t know enough to really judge, but it’s possible that it’s just a lot harder to pull off these assassinations than it used-to-be.  OTOH, it seems like Putin gets away with it a shit-ton, so maybe Israel is just trying to stay legal where it can.

  9. 9.

    ira

    @NobodySpecial: Fwiw, it’s unlikely that the political leadership of Hamas — living in luxury in Doha and Istanbul — knew the details of the attack, if only because that would compromise operational security. These guys are under constant surveillance by Mossad and other intelligence agencies.

    They may have known that ‘something big’ was going to happen, but not what nor when. It’s the ‘hard men’ of the military wing that call the shots. The job of the political wing is then to fit these actions into the ‘narrative’ they try to tell the world.

    Regardless, the Israelis should eliminate all the leaders — military or political — of this mass-murdering fascistic cult.

  10. 10.

    ira

    @Chetan Murthy: That’s when in 2010 Mossad killed Mahmoud al-Mabhouh un Dubai. He was wanted by the Israeli government for the kidnapping and murder of two Israeli soldiers in 1989 as well as purchasing arms from Iran for use in Gaza.

    The operation was carried out sloppily, which led to to the identities of the agents involved being divulged. Mossad is usually much more careful.

  11. 11.

    Alison Rose

    @Suzanne:

    I have always leaned toward no military response if there is not a good chance of success.

    But what would that have meant here? Hamas can roll through, killing children and raping women, and nothing happens? I’m not defending the majority of Israel’s tactics or decisions here, but the idea of no response whatsoever makes no sense.

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @NobodySpecial: He’s protected by the Emir of Qatar. We have major military basing in Qatar despite the Emir’s constant funding and use of the Muslim Brotherhood – and Hamas is the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood – to stir up trouble in the region for his own benefit. So we protect Qatar and Qatar funds and protects Hamas.

  14. 14.

    Chetan Murthy

    There’s a statement that is made over-and-over: “The vast majority of Gazans do not support Hamas as their government, and hence should not be made to suffer for Hamas’ decisions.”  If we take that as true, then those Gazans will not want to remain in Hamas-controlled territory.  I wonder about the following scenario:

    1. Israel orders all Gazans to move to the Southern half of Gaza (already done)
    2. This depends also on adequate aid being supplied to the Southern half of Gaza
    3. As Gazans move, Israel sets up a cordon sanitarie along the Wadi Gaza
    4. This allows them to effectively blockade all of the northern end of Gaza
    5. Anybody who wants to leave, can leave.  But without weapons, and any identified Hamas/PIJ militants get picked-out and detained
    6. And the rest?  Starve ’em out.
    7. And once that’s accomplished, Israel returns to their own territory

    I’m sure there are ton of things wrong with this scenario.  But for starters, I think there’s two things that are right: Israel isn’t responsible for Hamas’ actions: if Hamas forces (or convinces) Gazans to stay in the North, that’s their lookout, not Israel’s.  And this entails no significant destruction of North Gazan infrastructure.  Just use ground-penetrating radar to find tunnels under Wadi Gaza, under the Israeli border, and ….. wait until they starve.

    And if Hamas has already managed to move their hostages to Southern Gaza?  Well, once you’ve starved out the people in North Gaza, move the entire population back North, again thru the cordon sanitaire.

    Now, I don’t expect this to “work” in the sense that Hamas will attack the Israel troops at that barrier.  But surely that’ll be less of a battle than fierce urban combat ?  And surely there’ll be far, far fewer dead Palestinians this way, than if Israel goes in and flattens Gaza ?

  15. 15.

    Kent

    @NobodySpecial:I find it difficult to believe that if Hamas’s external leader can give public interviews that Israel can’t find a way to reach out and touch him rather than flatten Gaza. I realize that Bibi and the fanatic wing of the government are eager to get rid of every Palestinian they can, but it’s still depressing to see how little changes over the decades.

    His is in Qatar not Gaza.  Israel has no interest in starting a war with Qatar and the other gulf states.

  16. 16.

    Nukular Biskits

    Adam, I appreciate the insight, analysis and explanation. Seldom, if ever, do I agree with your conclusions.

    Having said that, though, what would constitute an acceptable (in your opinion) ceasefire implementation in each conflict, respectively?

    My personal opinion is that such a thing is not possible in the Israeli/Hamas conflict; i.e., as long as one side exists, there will continue to be violence.  Likewise, I don’t see that anything short of pushing Russia back in Ukraine to the pre-2014 borders meeting the criteria.

    v/r

  19. 19.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Adam L Silverman: I assume you mean the Gazans ?  Move the entire population from the North, to the South end of the Strip.  Yes, they’ll be packed-in, yes they’ll be in tents.  But that’s gotta be better (with *sufficient* aid supplied) than being bombed.  And it’s gotta be *cheaper* than bombing, too [not that that’s a reason to do it; the reason should be that a lot fewer Gazans will be dying].

  20. 20.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Nukular Biskits: There is not one at this time. What there are, at least for Israel, are ways to ensure that international humanitarian law and the laws of land warfare are followed and civilian harm mitigation response is properly implemented through the planning, decision making, and operational cycles. Hamas, of course, does not believe any of those things apply to it.

  22. 22.

    Brachiator

    everyone is afraid the response will be so out of proportion that it is better to just stop any response.

    The response is already out of proportion.

    And that is why if you’re going to call for a ceasefire or an armistice you have to be able to clearly articulate what it means in practice and application and why it isn’t rewarding one party to the conflict disproportionately to the other in a way that rewards the aggression and teaches others that they too can undertake something like this and get away with it.

    The framing of “what it rewards” and what it “teaches others” is insufficient. You are focusing on the possible effect on Hamas and ignoring or downplaying the harm that is being inflicted on innocent Palestinians.

    NEW TV interview with Khaled Mashal, Hamas’s external leader. Mashal is based in Qatar.

    Summary of interview: Says Hamas’s terrorism is “legitimate resistance” Says sacrifices have to be made by nations when trying to liberate themselves.

    This is absolute bullshit. He is callously, deliberately calling on Israel to hurt innocent Palestinians so that they will always feel aggrieved and can be radicalized.

    He is not playing by the rules of”rewards” and “lessons learned.”

    BTW. I assume that no matter what is said in public and for the official record, Israel is rightfully doing everything they can to locate the hostages and to insure their release, even if it means paying ransom or letting some of the terrorists go free.

  24. 24.

    Nukular Biskits

    @Adam L Silverman:

    No disagreement from me on any of that.

    Given the Israeli gov’t’s history of, uh, less than stellar human rights observances w/ respect to Palestinians, I initially feared the worst. But, given the Information Age (with cell phones providing almost instantaneous video), I suspect the IDF will be far more judicious in the application of military force now than they were in the past.  And kudos to POTUS for personally traveling to Israel to both express support for the Israeli people AND remind the Netanyahu gov’t that Palestinians civilians are not Hamas.

    W/ respect to Ukraine, restating what I said above, I don’t see Ukraine stopping until they’ve pushed Russian forces outside the pre-2014 borders.

    Somewhat related:  Did you see the reports of the USS Carney intercepting Israel-bound missiles?

  25. 25.

    BeautifulPlumage

    Hi all. Can anyone give me a clue about the tunnels in Gaza? I know nothing about underground building an am wondering how extensive it is there. I was amazed by the underground drone factories in Iran.and how large their tunnels are. Doesn’t this affect surface buildings? Thanks.

  26. 26.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Nukular Biskits:

    W/ respect to Ukraine, restating what I said above, I don’t see Ukraine stopping until they’ve pushed Russian forces outside the pre-2014 borders.

    Why should they? There’s an international agreement, to which russia is a signatory, clearly delineating the national borders.

  28. 28.

    Damien

    I badly wish that Hamas were as easy to identify and fight as it seems the Russians are.

    Adam, if you were advising the Israeli leadership as to the best path forward, what would be your thoughts? Even assuming the level best outcome where Hamas is destroyed with absolutely no loss of civilian life whatsoever (I said best outcome, not best realistic outcome) what is Israel’s move? Even with all of their blockades and control Hamas was able to plan and execute this attack, so how can they possibly retract all of that? Wouldn’t it just make it easier for the next attack and the next?

    I truly wish I could envision a scenario where Gaza’s fortunes turn around, but I only see misery. I hope perhaps your expertise gives you a different perspective?

  33. 33.

    Lyrebird

    @Chetan Murthy: I don’t know whether it was a reliable source, but I have seen reports that the IDF shelled a southern village even after saying it would be left alone.  But beyond all that, one question I have about your scenario is whether anyone in Gaza would trust the Israeli government to allow them to come back after any ground operation?  They may mistrust Hamas, but even before the past week, I doubt Yusuf and Laila Q. Public in Gaza held much trust in Israel’s actions.

    The situation was so awful before, it is hard for me to get my head around how much WORSE it is now.

     

     

    @Adam L Silverman: Thank you once again!  I was wishing we could ask your view of the ceasefire question (I/P not Ukr) and not wanting to add to your workload at the same time.

  34. 34.

    Damien

    @Adam L Silverman: None taken, it’s probably the most complex political problem on earth and obviously way outside the scope of what’s even plausible to discuss on a blog. I’m just so tired of and frustrated by people with no real expertise but plenty of simple, straightforward and impossible solutions; you’ve always presented what seem like relatively nuanced explanations of complex issues, so I thought perhaps you might have a similar take on this.

    But I’m absolutely not offended that you don’t want to wade into the muck.

  35. 35.

    suzanne

    @Alison Rose:

    But what would that have meant here? Hamas can roll through, killing children and raping women, and nothing happens? I’m not defending the majority of Israel’s tactics or decisions here, but the idea of no response whatsoever makes no sense. 

    Sometimes there are only bad options in front of you. The Israel-Palestine conflict doesn’t really have a military solution that I can see. Maybe there is a military solution against Hamas. But if a military solution existed for the overall situation, it would have been completed by now, by someone.

    That doesn’t mean that I don’t think the Israelis don’t have a right to respond. I just don’t know that their response will actually help them live in peace and stability.

  36. 36.

    Andrya

    @Chetan Murthy:   The problem is, the Gazan Palestinians will not believe that the Netanyahu government will ever allow them to return to the north.  Frankly, I highly doubt it myself.  Israel has a history of telling Palestinians “If you leave, even due to fear of violence, you cannot come back”.  I find it understandable that people will take extreme risks to avoid permanently losing their homes.

  37. 37.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: If you would like a precedent for this plan, check out the Briggs Plan.

    The historical consensus seems to be that this sort of thing can be effective, but contravenes International law. During the Cold War, the downside didn’t really matter. Nowadays one could argue that the real alternatives are worse. But it’s still illegal.

  38. 38.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Many of the practices necessary for the Briggs Plan are now prohibited under Article 17 of Additional Protocol II to the Geneva Conventions which forbids civilian deportations and internment of civilian populations beyond actual civilian security and military necessity in non-international conflicts.

    And yet, it would seem that all the discussion is about how rooting out Hamas without killing 10/20/100-fold more civilians, is impossible without getting the civilians to move out of the war zone.

  40. 40.

    Carlo Graziani

    The Avdiivka front has turned into a perfect cauldron for attrition of Russian reserves and resources.

    I swear, every time I think these guys cannot make war more stupidly, they outdo themselves. Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov are Ukraine’s greatest assets in this war.

  41. 41.

    Lyrebird

    @suzanne: ​
    Sometimes there are only bad options in front of you. The Israel-Palestine conflict doesn’t really have a military solution that I can see. Maybe there is a military solution against Hamas. But if a military solution existed for the overall situation, it would have been completed by now, by someone.
    That doesn’t mean that I don’t think the Israelis don’t have a right to respond. I just don’t know that their response will actually help them live in peace and stability.

    Thanks, you and
    @Andrya: ​
      said what I was thinking but could not put to words so well.

  42. 42.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: That’s a pragmatic argument. It would not necessarily (read, “likely”) stand up in an International court.

    Which is not in itself a reason not to do a Briggs-like thing. International Law is in perpetual tension with National sovereignty. But one needs to be willing to accept the downstream consequences. Mismanaged (and with Bibi in charge, how could it not be?) such a plan could turn into an even larger disaster.

  43. 43.

    Martin

    @Alison Rose: The phrase ‘nothing happens’ is doing a lot of work here. What are the actual objectives of the operation? Can they identify the people who committed the acts and bring them to justice? Because that doesn’t sound like the job of 155mm artillery. Hamas unfortunately is not an identified military, and a confirmed military target might be the 3rd floor of a 10 story apartment block, with the other 9 floors being collateral damage.

    And that’s the problem. Israel has already killed more children since the 7th than Hamas did on the 7th. That’s a lot of ‘something happening’ and it might be resulting in the deaths of some of those Hamas fighters, but is it actually solving Israels problem with Hamas or is it just radicalizing a new generation of Palestinians to join Hamas?

    The issue here, and Adam can knock this down, is that the thing Hamas wanted is the thing that Israel is doing. Hamas wanted a security clampdown, because that’s how insurgents build support for their organizations which Israel seems entirely too eager to oblige. So yes, Israel is ‘doing something’ – the thing Hamas wants. It might feel emotionally good to be doing that thing, but it’s counterproductive.

    Israel seems to be doing the thing that the US always fails at – we punish the civilians who aren’t part of the organization we are after, and ultimately drive them into that organization because we don’t have the political will to be generous (as the vastly more powerful and wealth nation) with the civilians and approach the response in a more precise manner. That will ultimately be slower and less emotionally gratifying, but we did in the end get bin Laden, and we did it without artillery and without pissing off very many of his neighbors. The civilians have legitimate grievances that should be listened to, but we are too eager to bomb something that we instead add to the pile.

    Stopping large scale bombing of quasi-military/quasi-civilian infrastructure doesn’t mean not doing anything. It just means doing something different. The problem is that it’s pretty apparent Bibi and his coalition don’t want to do anything different. They want to do this, because it favors his political position. GWB didn’t need to invade Iraq, he chose to, because the US does not like to get rid of a wartime president, even if that asshole started the war. It was a political decision, which is super obvious from how it was handled. Bibi wants to annex Palestine, and there’s some concern that’s what he’s preparing to do. Up until now the plan was to do it slowly through settlements, building security zones around those settlements that would slowly become defacto Israeli territory, but now he can do it militarily, taking control of say, everything north of Wadi Gaza and simply never handing it back over ‘security concerns’.

    That too is ‘doing something’. Is it helpful? Depends on who you ask, I guess. Would it lead to a wider regional conflict? I think almost certainly. Whose interests is that in? The victims of what happened earlier this month? I don’t think so. I don’t see how it helps them at all. How much did the invasion of Iraq help the victims of 9/11? I think not at all. But boy did we do something.

    This is why people say that Russia has lost a war that isn’t yet over because the perceived goals of initiating that war have all failed. It didn’t drive NATO apart, but instead added two new members. It drove Ukraine closer to the EU and NATO. It put NATO directly on Russias border – something it said it was trying to prevent. And regardless of how this conflict ends, those things won’t get undone. Winning the war, bombing Kyiv or occupying it or ousting Zelensky are all irrelevant to the presented goals.

    What are Israels presented goals here? So far it’s retribution. It’s not increased security. It’s not a reduction of attacks, or reduced support for Hamas, because if the US thinking on insurgencies is to be believed, it looks like Israel is in the process of making that all worse. It’s not really even holding Hamas accountable because much of Hamas leadership isn’t where these actions are taking place. Sure, they’ll kill a bunch of foot soldiers, but if that’s your military goal, you’re pretty fucked. And that’s the problem – the last 15 years of crackdowns didn’t prevent Oct 7 from happening. The border fence didn’t stop it. The restrictions on the movements of Palestinians didn’t prevent it. The interference in Palestinian elections didn’t prevent it. The settlements didn’t prevent it. I think the conventional thinking is that while they were all ‘doing something’ actions, they all probably contributed to Oct 7 happening in some way, which is why Hamas wants Israel to do this crackdown.

  44. 44.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: I see your point.  And yet, I cannot see that a Bibi-run ground invasion would be less deadly to Gazans.  To @suzanne: ‘s point, I think there’s only one way that Israelis and Palestinians can live together with peace and stability: and that’s for Israel to relinquish the Occupied Territories  — all of them including the settlements (in good working condition).  But this is a long-term thing, not a short-term thing.  B/c right now …..

    No nation, howsoever unjustly it treats its neighbor, is going to stand for the sort of bloodbath that Hamas produced on 7 October.  No country.  So it’s really a question of how Hamas is “got”.  If for lack of anything better, Israel goes with a ground invasion, it will be ….. well, as the sad old joke goes:

    “We must do something; this is something; OK, let’s do it!”

    Sigh.

  45. 45.

    Jay

    @BeautifulPlumage:

    So Gaza is mostly sand and dirt.

    The earliest tunnels were several kilometers long, used to smuggle goods in to Gaza from Egypt. They would run from a building in Egypt to a building in Gaza. The smuggling was highly profitable.

    As fast as the Israeli’s or Egyptians found a tunnel and destroyed it, the smugglers built a new one. Over time, they developed techniques to avoid detection by the sensors used by both Israel and Egypt to detect the digging and operation of a tunnel.

    During WWI, Canadian Sappers figured out how to use coffer dams, to dig down below the “blue clay” layer in Belgium and France in the north. Above the blue clay were alluvial layers, and the blue clay trapped water, so German attempts to dig deep, were flooded. Canadian Sappers also figured out the push method, where a sharp shovel was pushed in and debris moved, almost silently. Germans were up top in the alluvial soil using picks and drills, which were easily detected.

    When Hamas got control of Gaza, they also got the tunnels and the tech. They used this tech and probably some of the experienced tunnel crews to dig “raid” tunnels into Israel, storage tunnels for weapons storage, other tunnels to use as fighting bunkers, and undermine “protected” buildings like hospitals and schools for HQ’s and fighting bunkers.

  46. 46.

    Geminid

    @Chetan Murthy: One problem here is that a number of Palestinians and even more of their “allies” consider Israel itself to be the largest component of the Occupied Territories.

  47. 47.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Geminid: At some level, they even have right on their side: it wasn’t the Palestinians who murdered most of European Jewry, after all.  But the thing is, it doesn’t matter: what matters is what the internationally-agreed-upon borders are.  And the Palestinians cannot at the same time clamor for the regard, concern, and assistance of “the international community”, while simultaneously standing for abrogating that international agreement on borders.

    Again, I think that the only way this can end peacefully, is for Israel to return *all* the pre-1967 territory, including all settlements.  But the idea that somehow anybody is going to undo the agreed-upon borders …. that’s fantasy.

  48. 48.

    Andrya

    @Geminid:  Fatah (authority on the West Bank) has recognized Israel in the Oslo Accord (1993).  The problem is, that ever since, the Israeli government has totally screwed Fatah by enabling West Bank settlements- including violent West Bank settlements whose members destroy Palestinian property (again, olive trees) and sometimes violently attack Palestinians without provocation.  In my opinionated opinion, this has been a grave error on the Israeli government’s part.  Fatah tried to work with the Israeli government, and they got nothing, absolutely nothing, in return.  Hamas provided total opposition, and they at least were able to keep the settlers out.

  49. 49.

    Martin

    @BeautifulPlumage: Tunnels are pretty easy to build, especially if you have modern infrastructure atop them. Tunnels for travel and defensive purposes have been around since medieval times and even earlier. Modern tools and engineering make them even easier to implement. And they’re hard to identify since theres no way to differentiate a sewer from a tunnel with a rocket factory in it.

    I don’t know how extensive they are, but if you’re willing to get by with less than say, US building standards, you can make them pretty fucking fast. Keeping them ventilated is one of the bigger challenges but if you can tie into the surface infrastructure, that too gets pretty easy, and pretty easy to hide.  Modern urban infrastructure provides for a lot of places to hide tunnel entrances, and can make it pretty difficult to detect tunnels unless you can operate equipment directly over them, which Israel obviously cannot do especially near the Egyptian border. By comparison, US/Mexico drug tunnels are a lot easier to detect because the US does control the land at the border and can scan for underground passages.

    To give an example of size, Nazi Germany operated Mittelwerk, a large central factory in Germany that was underground. There were two main parallel tunnels with around 50 cross tunnels. The main tunnels were around over a mile long. These tunnels were about 20′ high and 30′ wide (roughly a double-track train tunnel), and the cross tunnels somewhat smaller. These were dug out by slave labor over the course of a year. All told, about a million square feet – pretty damn big. This was 75 years ago.

    Digging tunnels is now easier to do, easier to conceal. Hamas certainly doesn’t have the kind of manpower that the Nazis did – particularly slave labor that could be worked until they died, and Germany had a pretty big industrialized base to support this construction (steelworks, concrete plants, etc.) while Hamas has do this under concealment, often using equipment it smuggles in, but it can get quite expansive quite quickly if their goals are fairly modest.

    We had a student rocket club building a suborbital rocket in a space that was 45′ by 10′ by 8′ high (a converted exterior walkway under a plaza). That’s the size of a tunnel a couple of guys could dig out in a week or two with some power tools, ready access to support materials, a nearby location for tailings and favorable digging conditions (I have no idea how favorable digging in that area is – but presume it’s pretty good given there are extensive tunnel networks dating back to antiquity). Run a vent up to the surface and hook it into an existing building ventilation system, while also pulling a circuit down to power your work, and you’re all set.

    There’s quite an interesting example of what can be done over in Fresno, CA.

  50. 50.

    Jay

    @Andrya:

    Hamas provided total opposition, and they at least were able to keep the settlers out.

    Israel had settlements in Gaza.

    Hamas forced Israel to withdraw, as the constant security costs and attacks were too high.

  51. 51.

    Andrya

    @Jay:   My point is that Fatah tried to work with Israel, and got absolutely nothing back.  Hamas tried military opposition including terrorism, and got the settlers out.  What are ordinary Palestinians supposed to conclude from that?

    ETA to correct typo.

  52. 52.

    tobie

    @Chetan Murthy: in some ways I feel like the solution to the conflict in the West Bank is easier to imagine than in Gaza. Dismantle the settlements, retreat to 1967 boundaries on that side, negotiate water rights and the division of Jerusalem. Granted, all this is a tall order and will require a courageous leadeship in Israel as well as the West Bank.

    How a stable relation can be developed with Gaza at this point is beyond me

    I saw an interview with 4 residents who did security detail on their kibbutz. The maps Hamas brought when they attacked the kibbutz had everything marked–power stations, shelters and so on. The interviewees concluded the info came from the Gazans who worked as day laborers at the kibbutz.

    Up until Oct 7 Israel allowed 20K Gazan workers in every day, mostly men between 25 and 35. If you do the math, that’s not an insignificant portion of the adult male population in Gaza. How do you restore trust at this point? I really don’t know. And that’s what’s frightening. The stalemate is one of mutual mistrust, hurt, and grievance.

  53. 53.

    Chetan Murthy

    @tobie: In Tony Judt’s _Postwar_ there was a section about the “unmixing of nations” that happened after WWII.  Deliberate transfers (ethnic cleansing for sure) of minority populations to produce cohesive nations without significant minorities of other nationalities.  It was just necessary, in order to get busy with peace.

    In this context, Israel and Palestine will build high walls and not deal with each other for a few (or many) decades.  Maybe the grandchildren of people alive today will be able to start thinking of tearing those walls down.  I mean, as Brad Delong put it, since 111BCE until 1945 CE an army crossed the Rhine river on average every 37 years to wreak havoc, loot, rape, and pillage.  But today?  France and Germany are really well-intertwined, both economically and culturally.

  54. 54.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Instead of calling for immediate ceasefire in Gaza, every world power should be publicly admonishing Israel to follow the Laws of Armed Conflict (addition to affirming its right to self-defense), hold it accountable, & privately pressure Israel to articulate its end game.

  55. 55.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @tobie: If Israel made that deal with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, the Gazans will see it & agitate for Hamas to change or overthrow its rule. Things do not happen in isolation.

    However, even the most accommodating Israeli government had not been willing to make that deal.

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: I don’t think such clean separation is possible between Israel & Palestine, not of Israel insists on maintaining chokehold over water resources for Palestinian communities. The only way such de-mixing really works is if the de-mixed communities live in self-sufficient environs.

  57. 57.

    tobie

    @Chetan Murthy: Good point about France and Germany. I remember taking a road trip down the Rhine. We started on the German side and crossed over to the French side in Strasbourg and continued south to Basel. I remember looking at the flat land on either side of the Rhine and thinking to myself that this must be a graveyard for soldiers over many centures.

    The one complication with Gaza and the West Bank is that they are not contiguous. Non-contiguous (and culturally distinct) countries don’t hold up well. Pakistan/Bangladesh is the only example I can think of right now but I’m sure there are others in history.

  58. 58.

    Andrya

    @tobie:   Under apartheid South Africa, black families were forced to move to “Bantustans” while working age men (but not their families) were issued work permits to enter South Africa proper.  This was not a decent solution- and was a major flash point of black grievance.  For a man who would like to start his own business, or be a professional, a work permit allowing him to enter alien territory to work a low paid/low status job, which requires him to live apart from his family, is not, and is not perceived to be, a good thing.  The work permits issued for Palestinians in Gaza to work in Israel had a similar dynamic.

    Israel has a legitimate interest in preventing weapons delivery to the West Bank, but has far extended this to preventing Gaza from developing an economy capable of supporting its people.  (No fishing in the Mediterranean more than 3.5 miles offshore?  Not a legitimate Israeli security interest.). This is, as I said last night, zero-sum thinking:  Netanyahu believes Israeli security requires Palestinians to be as crushed, poor, and desperate as possible.  He is dead wrong about this:  Israeli security (which I care about) needs Palestinians to be prosperous and hopeful for their future.

  59. 59.

    Chetan Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: Last I remember, Israel was purposely stealing water from the Occupied Territories.  That also would have to stop.  As would Gazans’ right to use their offshore waters for commerce, fishing, and mineral exploitation — that who have to be restored.

    Which, sure, it’s a fantasy, b/c you’re right that no Israeli administration[1] was ever serious about returning control over the Occupied Territories: they all built more settlements, including Ehud Barak’s administration.

    [1] I excepting Rabin, b/c while I don’t actually know whether he was serious, I at least hope he was.

  60. 60.

    tobie

    @YY_Sima Qian: Rabin came as close as any PM to doing it. I don’t see any figure in Israel of his stature.

    Sometimes I wonder if the age of bold and brave leaders. Biden aspires to call the US to its values, and it makes me wistful because it is such a steep climb in our digital age.

  61. 61.

    tobie

    @Andrya: My understanding is that most of the 20K workers worked in south Israel. Going there daily from Gaza would not require you to live apart from your family. The distance is not great.

    ETA: I don’t have a crystal ball but I’m not sure how long Netanyahu stays in power. He’s a diminished figure, Israelis are angry at his simultaneous bluster and incompetence that left the southern part of the country undefended. One cousin of mine said about Netanyahu, “We’re putting the matter aside for now, not away.”

  62. 62.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @tobie: I think Rabin was quite serious, which was why he was assassinated, but I think he (or his government) wanted to keep the settlements in East Jerusalem.

    I remember the Obama team that came in in 2009 wanted to push the peace process forward, but things seemed intractable then. Now it just seems hopeless, unless something finally drives both sides to total exhaustion.

  63. 63.

    Andrya

    I don’t know if Gaza men with work permits can go home to their families at night- my comment was about the parallels to apartheid South Africa.  However, my main point holds.  The Israeli government justifies their blockade of Gaza due to security concerns- Gaza might be exporting weapons to the West Bank!- but in practice they have extended it to prevent the development of a viable Gaza economy.  This is zero-sum thinking:  “the more crushed my adversary is, the better for me”.  The exact opposite is true:  if young people in Gaza were planning to start businesses or become film producers, rather than deciding whether to do manual labor in Israel with a work permit, Israel would be infinitely safer.

  64. 64.

    tobie

    @Andrya: In broad terms, yes, a prosperous Gaza where people had hope for the future would generally be a less war-like one. That said, I don’t think Israel is fully responsible for the conditions in Gaza. Hamas has run the place for years, funneled aid into a war machine, managed the schools, all govt agencies and so on. Israel’s fear wasn’t that Hamas would send weapons to the West Bank. It’s that it would bring in weapons via its Mediterranean port to wage war on Israel. I believe that fear was legitimate.

  65. 65.

    Chetan Murthy

    @tobie: What you write is certainly true today.  But I remember during the Oslo years, people like Mohammad Dahlan worked hand-in-glove with Israeli police and secret services to throttle violence in the Occupied Territories.  They really believed that peace would come, that they’d get their nation. I don’t know how to rewind this clock, except to wait a few generations with high walls between the two peoples.  But before Oslo broke down, there was hope on both sides.

  66. 66.

    Andrya

    @tobie:  If Israel was only concerned about Hamas importing weapons into Gaza, there would be no reason to police/stifle stuff being exported from Gaza.  In fact, if the concern was weapons being imported into Gaza, then the more self-sufficient Gaza is, the less dependent on imports, thus the fewer imports, the better.  The policy of the Israeli government has been to keep Gaza desperate, to prevent the development of a viable economy.  Severe limitations on fishing in the Mediterranean- exactly how does that make Israel more secure?

  68. 68.

    Lynn Dee

    I heard a snippet of a news report out of the corner of my ear that brought me up short: something the IDF was doing or planning was described as “escalating the conflict.”

    That left me scratching my head.

  69. 69.

    NobodySpecial

    @Lynn Dee: The Israeli government is a mirror image of the Palestinian Authority: They never fail to miss an opportunity and they’re more worried about lining their coffers (especially Prime Minister Pickpocket) and staying in power than making things better for everyone in the region.

  72. 72.

    tobie

    @Jay: @Andrya: This thread is long since dead but I’ll only say my feelings about Gaza (and I emphasize Gaza in particular) are at the other end of the spectrum of most of the posters on this blog. Gaza is IMO a semi-autonomous region. It had every opportunity after Israel pulled out and ended the occupation in 2005 to develop some kind of detente with Israel that would lead to economic growth over time. Border crossings were open; the development of ports was possible. Hamas chose to turn the strip into a de facto military base making the civilian population vulnerable to reprisals and to tighter and painful border controls. The lobbing of rockets from Gaza into Israel didn’t decrease after 2005. It continued unabated and even increased dramatically.

    This is not to say that the Likud-led govt in Israel from 2009 on didn’t make matters worse with frequent aerial raids. (Raz Sanchez of NBC reported that calls are made in Arabic to residents to let them know their building will be targeted and this article by a Gazan journalist confirms it even while talking about the unspeakable toll the war is taking on civilians.)

    There are two actors in this conflict, and while one is definitely more powerful than the other, it doesn’t help the cause of peace to treat this as a one-sided conflict. At some point the parties will need to negotiate and we will have to assume they are empowered to settle.

  73. 73.

    Marcus

    Just a question: Should i be surprised by a Likud MP (Amir Weitzman) calling out Russia DIRECTLY and not going through the usual Iran proxy….Bibi’s coalition is made up of of Russians…I thought that was the reason he was often on the fence when it came to Ukraine

    Greatly appreciate the free time you put in these posts…for me they are insightful reads

  74. 74.

    Andrya

    @Marcus:   I am not treating it as a one sided conflict.  I take it for granted that Hamas is radically evil.  I’m saying Israeli policy for the last 20+ years has involved zero-sum thinking and collective punishment, and no successes allowed for Fatah ever.  The hopeful period you describe occurred under the premiership of Itzhak Rabin, who was assassinated after only two years.

    The fact that Netanyahu and Hamas benefit each other at the expense of Fatah, and at the expense of any prospect of peace, is so obvious that Haaretz recently ran an editorial about it (link– paywalled but you can read the first few paragraphs).

  75. 75.

    Bill Arnold

    Thanks all for keeping this thread relatively free of propaganda talking points, crafted over many decades to amplify biases and inflame.

  76. 76.

    Bill Arnold

    @Andrya:
    I managed to get to that interesting Haaretz opionion piece by copying the URL, going to archive.ph, pasting the URL and selecting one of the archive links. (The oldest.) (Too tedious except for occasional use.)
    Here’s the resulting URL.
    Opinion | A Brief History of the Netanyahu-Hamas Alliance – For 14 years, Netanyahu’s policy was to keep Hamas in power; the pogrom of October 7, 2023, helps the Israeli prime minister preserve his own rule (Adam Raz, Oct 20, 2023 )

  77. 77.

    tobie

    @Andrya: I think you were responding to me here but Marcus was the next to post.

    Likud’s policies vis-a-vis Arabs in Israel and the West Bank have been nothing short of appalling and hopefully the Israeli public is waking up to the damage done. No question there.

    Hamas isn’t attacking Israel because of settlements in the West Bank. It doesn’t ever mention them because as far as Hamas is concerned all of Israeli land is occupied territory.

    As I said at the outset, I can envision the terms of negotiated peace in the West Bank. The settlements will have to go; water rights and the division of Jerusalem will have to be handled. Gaza for me is the intractable problem. I really don’t know what can be done and non-contiguous nations have not fared well in the past. May wiser heads than mine prevail.

  78. 78.

    tobie

    @Bill Arnold: Even the more conservative Times of Israel published a similar opinion piece on October 8. Israel won’t have a vote of no confidence during a conflict but I can’t imagine the country forgetting the regime’s failure.

     

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/

    P.S. Thanks for the link to the Ha’aretz piece on archive. The paywall on the site is up and I’ve been meaning to take out a subscription but haven’t done so yet.

  79. 79.

    Lynn Dee

    @NobodySpecial:  They never fail to miss an opportunity to … what?

    I’m not someone who thinks everything Israel does is justifiable or beyond reproach, and one of my hopes is that Netanyahu is finally ousted from power when this is over. What’s going on in Gaza now is incredibly painful to see. It’s unbearable. But the notion that a military response by Israel at this point can be described as “escalating the conflict” is just baffling to me. There must be a way to talk about this without lapsing into meaningless assertions that only add to the confusion.

    I don’t know what the answer is. I get the sense Biden thinks, by repeatedly expressing his unwavering support for Israel (which I do think comes from a genuine well of feeling), he will be in a position to pressure Netanyahu to temper his bloodthirstiness. (Not that he’d necessarily put it that way.) But it also seems entirely possible that he (Biden) has a little too much faith in his ability to do that. Or maybe even he thinks/knows(?) it’s more hope than faith. I don’t know. I guess we’ll see.

  80. 80.

    ira

    In the interests of accuracy, Khaled Mashal stepped down from the leadership of Hamas in 2017. The current political head is Ismail Haniyeh.

  81. 81.

    Paul in KY

    @NobodySpecial: Hamas has been murderous ‘useful idiots’ for Likud Israel and the leaders that have them perform such counter=productive shit they might just want to keep around.

  82. 82.

    Paul in KY

    @Chetan Murthy: People literally starving to death (presumed non-combatants who have stayed behind for whatever reason) make very bad optics. Would engender sympathy for a foe who’s very short on sympathy right now.

    Henry V got alot of tarnish on his halo when he allowed thousands of non-combatants to starve to death in the no-man’s land between his fortifications and the town of Harfleur way back in the day. Horrible scenes were seen and written about (and this was in the early 15th Century).

  83. 83.

    Paul in KY

    @bookworm1398: They are trying to keep a lid on their religious whabbist nutwads, so they fund Hamas and such to say ‘hey, we’re good, conservative muslims. Trying to overthrow the Zionist Entity, etc. etc.’

Comments are closed.