Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

If you are in line to indict donald trump, stay in line.

We’re not going back!

Democrats have delivered the Square Deal, the New Deal, the Fair Deal, and now… the Big Joe Biden Deal.

Found liable for massive fraud, is required to post a massive bond, gets a break, then files a *fraudulent* bond!

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. don’t touch it.”

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Second rate reporter says what?

“And when the Committee says to “report your income,” that could mean anything!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 612: A Brief Saturday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 612: A Brief Saturday Night Update

by | 24 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

Graphic by NEIVANMADE of a Russian bomb with a "Z" symbol on it crashing through the roof of the Ukrainian Postal Service delivery hub. "Everyone Is a Target" and "Stop Russia" are written in the space between the destroyed roof and the fins of the bomb.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note in regard to a point of contention from my earlier post: To clarify, the simple child, as I explained in describing its role in the ritual, is actually a complement. In the recounting of the four sons it is the simple child – the one that knows they need to learn – that begins the actual process of learning, of becoming enlightened on the topic. The wise son (thinks he) already has all the answers and therefore needs to learn nothing. The wicked son is contrary for the sake of contrarianism. The son who is to young to even formulate a question is just that. It is the simple son – the one that knows that he does not know and needs to learn – that allows for the tale of the Exodus and the Passover to properly be recounted and for its true meaning to be learned.

President Zelenskyy made to addresses today. The first was to the implementation of the peace process forum in Malta. The video isbelow, English transcript after the jump. This is a bit different, President Zelenskyy is speaking in English with Ukrainian subtitles.

Our joint efforts are laying a new global tradition of unity helping us learn how to end all wars – the speech of the President of Ukraine at the third meeting of advisors on the implementation of the Peace Formula in Malta

28 October 2023 – 18:26

Dear ladies and gentlemen!

Dear co-authors and co-workers of peace!

All nations on earth have gone through war. Men and women who returned from battles and did not forget what they had gone-through until their last breath… Children who were maimed by war… Families who were left with only pain and ashes and gravestones instead of their loved-ones.

There is no place in the world that has not seen the human blood shed in battles.

It is said in different languages that the history of mankind is the history of wars. But I want us all to be able to say one day that from now on, the history of people is a history of peace only. We see this aspiration in many sacred books. And most hearts respond to this. We see this aspiration stipulated in the international law and in the UN Charter. But does the UN Charter work?

Here in Ukraine, and in the Middle East, and in African countries, the answer to this question is the cries of mothers burying their sons and daughters killed in wars, and the despair of children orphaned by wars…

We can and must give a different answer. The world has seen too much blood.

Last year, I proposed a Peace Formula. 10 points that cover all aspects of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and are based on the principles of the UN Charter and the UN General Assembly resolutions approved by the world. Over the year, our Peace Formula has gradually become global – because all of you have supported it or at least shown an active interest in working on it. This Formula has truly become a common one.

What are the main things the Peace Formula can do? Very important things.

First, the Peace Formula ensures the full force of the UN Charter to stop the aggression against our country and eliminate all its consequences, and thus can later become a model when the full power of international law can prevent other aggressions. Secondly, the Peace Formula enables each country to become a leader in its part and of its kind to restore peace and play an independent role in making peace.

And the third, our joint efforts are laying the foundation for a new global tradition of unity – when helping one country end a war, it helps us learn how to end all wars.

There are no two wars alike, but the Peace Formula can and should be universal. The plan for its implementation needs to be joint – to reflect not a particular national position, but the position of people, of all mankind. We shall prepare a joint action plan and then submit it to the Global Peace Summit – at the level of leaders – to approve and implement it for the sake of peace, for the sake of the protection of every nation from wars. And let this result be our common legacy for humanity!

And I am grateful to every nation and international organization represented here in Malta. In total, almost 70 global actors have already joined the Peace Formula process. I thank everyone!

I am grateful to Malta, to the Government of Malta and every Maltese for hosting this Summit. I am grateful to Denmark for the first meeting in this format – in Copenhagen. I am grateful to Saudi Arabia and Jeddah for developing this format. I am grateful to all the leaders who addressed the participants of the meeting, either personally or by sending messages… Mr. President Niinistö of Finland, Mr. President Ramaphosa of South Africa, Mr. Prime Minister Kishida of Japan, Mr. Prime Minister Denkov of Bulgaria, Cardinal Parolin of the Vatican and Grands Chancellor Montecupo.

I would like to specifically mention the international institutions that supported the Peace Formula – the UN, the Council of Europe, the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament, which, by the way, is headed by a Maltese woman, Roberta Metsola, a defender of international law and a brave person, who was among the first to visit Ukraine after the start of full-scale aggression and has consistently helped to defend lives. Thank you all who works for peace!

I wish you a fruitful summit!

Слава Україні!

And here is his daily address. Video below, followed by the English transcript.

Our Peace Formula gradually, step by step, is becoming global – address by the President of Ukraine

28 October 2023 – 20:31

I wish you all good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today is the first day of the summit in Malta – a meeting of advisors and diplomatic representatives regarding our Peace Formula, which gradually, step by step, is becoming global.

Sixty six countries are represented at the summit, and it is a good result. All continents are represented. Many countries, different political traditions. I thank all the leaders and countries that have already supported our common vision for peace. And there is potential to expand the representation of states. The points of our Formula are created in such a way that everyone in the world who truly values international law can express themselves and their values and support global efforts against aggression.

Right now at the Malta summit, work is underway on five of the ten points of the Formula. These are “Radiation and nuclear safety,” “Food security,” “Energy security,” “Release of all prisoners and deported persons,” and “Restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the world order.” For each point of the Formula, groups of states, focusing on implementation, have been created. The work on the Formula is led by Andriy Yermak, with teams from the Office of the President, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, government officials, and representatives of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. I am grateful to everyone who adds such diplomatic strength to Ukraine.

Last year, when I first introduced the Formula, the world was still discussing various visions and fairly different approaches to restoring our state border and achieving a fair peace. The global majority is gradually uniting around a common and fair vision reflected in the Peace Formula. Unity of the world is what is truly needed for aggressors to be defeated.

And it is very symbolic that such a strong display of international unity we have today, on October 28, the day when in Ukraine we commemorate the Second World War and the anniversary of the expulsion of the Nazis from our territory. Back then, the Ukrainian people, along with many nations, fought to defeat evil. Unity gave the peoples the necessary strength. Not only to defeat Nazism and punish the Nazis for their crimes against humanity – for the Holocaust, for the destruction of nations, but also to establish an architecture of security and peace that would protect against a new global war. We can see now that the architecture created then did not work. But unity will certainly work effectively. The unity of all who help Ukraine defeat ruscism. And we will defeat it. For sure. And the unity of everyone in the world who works together with us, together with all our partners, to restore the strength of international law and the real weight of the principles and norms of the UN Charter.

The world is not a place for aggression. Humanity will come to this understanding. This is the only way to protect life.

And one more thing.

Today, I want to particularly commend the Ukrainian border guards. There will come a time – we are doing everything to bring it closer – when the Ukrainian border guards will work peacefully on all sections of our sovereign state border. Right now, many of them, along with all the defense and security forces, are fighting on the front lines to bring the time of peace closer for Ukraine. I thank the entire personnel of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. And special gratitude from us deserve… The warriors of the Kramatorsk Border Guard Unit, especially Senior Sergeant Roman Malysh and Major Vadym Kostenko. They are fighting near Bahmut. Thank you for your strength!

Also in Donetsk region, soldiers from the Kharkiv Border Guard Unit are performing their tasks – Senior Soldier Oleksandr Kovalenko and Senior Lieutenant Serhiy Sydorsky. Thank you, warriors!

The Lyman direction, the Mohyliv-Podilsky Border Guard Unit, Senior Sergeant Oleksandr Leus. Thank you for your courage!

Kupiansk direction, the ‘Steel Border’ brigade – Sergeants Anatoliy Pavlovsky, Valeriy Pokrytiuk, Mykola Bilyk, and Senior Sergeant Maksym Bazarov. Thank you, warriors, for destroying Russian equipment and artillery!

Glory to all who fight and work for our state and the liberation of all of Ukraine from the occupiers! Thank you to everyone around the world who is helping!

Glory to Ukraine!

Avdiivka:

Just a quick note here, there’s a lot more imagery coming out of Avdiivka. A good chunk of it is somewhere between grim to exceedingly disturbing. I’m being selective about not posting those images or videos.

AVDIIVKA AXIS /2030 UTC 28 OCT/ Despite heavy and increasing losses, RU renewed unsuccessful attacks in the vicinities of Keramik, Avdiivka, Stepove, Tonenke, & Opytne.
UKR forces broke up more than ten attacks in the Avdiivka area of operations, inflicting losses of at least 9 main battle tanks, 8 Infantry fighting vehicles, 6 artillery systems and 400 Russian troops killed in action.

Michael Clarke of the Royal United Services Institute has a column on what he thinks will be Russia’s winter offensive at The Sunday Times:

It has been a good three weeks for President Putin in Ukraine. A lot has been happening on the ground while the eyes of the world have been directed elsewhere. These are tough weeks for Kyiv. They are, as Macer Gifford, one ex-British soldier fighting for Ukraine, put it on social media on Friday, “dark and difficult times”.

In response to Kyiv’s summer offensive, Putin ordered Russian forces more than a month ago to launch local counterattacks at multiple points along the 1,000km front. The Kremlin hoped to wrest back the initiative before winter sets in.

With American weapons and western attention suddenly swinging towards the Middle East, Russia has poured more men and equipment into some ferocious assaults in northeast Donbas, towards Kupiansk; in southeast Donbas, at Avdiivka; and in Zaporizhzhia, north of Tokmak, to halt Ukrainian progress southwards.

What’s more, last week Moscow seemed to be digging into the stockpile of missiles it has been conserving. It looks as if Russia’s winter air offensive is under way, targeting civilian infrastructure for the second year running.

The new Bakhmut

Russia’s renewed attack at Avdiivka, which began on the weekend of October 7, is particularly significant. The Russians have diverted scarce resources to try, yet again, to surround the city, bringing in about six brigades and a great deal of air power and artillery from other units, bombarding the two Ukrainian brigades holding the city. So far, Ukrainian forces have defended the town fiercely and the Russians have not completed an encirclement — though they will keep trying.

Avdiivka is becoming another Bakhmut. Except that Bakhmut had no real strategic importance. It was a symbol the Wagner mercenaries wanted to create for themselves. But Avdiivka does have genuine strategic value: it is on a key route into the city of Donetsk, as close to the airport as it is to the northern suburbs of the city.

The road system makes Avdiivka the gateway to southern Donbas. The Ukrainians have held it against Russian pressure since last year. It is Kyiv’s route to victory in that sector. If they lose Avdiivka now, they will be locked out of the south, and most of what they have achieved in the Donbas further north will count for little. Ukraine’s 1st Tank Brigade has been brought in to defend Avdiivka, while parts of the hard-fighting 47th Mechanised Brigade have been pulled out of the main southerly thrust from Zaporizhzhia and sent east to help defend the city. Fierce battles have been going on for control of the coke and chemicals plant on Avdiivka’s northern flank and the sand quarry at the village of Opytne on the southern flank. These two miserable industrial sites really matter.

Risk of stalemate

No wonder Kyiv appears to be deeply worried. According to rumours among security sources in Ukraine, the military commander Valery Zaluzhny argues that the Ukrainian offensive is almost over, that they must hold what they have got and prepare for operations next year. But President Zelensky does not agree, or will not admit it, because of the perception in the West that his war for Ukraine’s survival seems to have reached a stalemate. He knows that western patience is limited for his maximalist demands that Ukraine must recover all territory invaded by Russia since 2014, and Kyiv is deeply frustrated not to show more progress in its much-vaunted summer offensive. Kyiv well understands the political impact in the West of any appearance of stalemate. In truth, the events of the summer are both better and worse than that, but Ukrainian leaders are far from certain that western politicians or their public will grasp that.

Ukraine’s situation is better than stalemate because they are inflicting heavy losses on Russian forces in their recent attacks. In ten days from October 10, Russia’s visually verified vehicle losses in Avdiivka were 109 — comprising tanks, fighting vehicles and support units, more than a full brigade’s worth. In the past week its losses have not diminished, and Russian personnel losses are running at several hundred a day. The Russians are still operating human-wave attacks with their convicts or inexperienced troops.

Ukraine is also inflicting heavy losses south of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukraine has been trying to break through to Tokmak and open the route to the coast, splitting Russian forces in two. That now looks unlikely, but the Russians have used up their reserves in holding on north of Tokmak. They are certainly stretched and Kyiv may still be hoping that Russian defences will prove brittle in the rear areas if only they can break through more of the forward defence lines. Ukraine has also been very successful in degrading Russian forces in the rear areas with its western-supplied “deep-strike” precision missiles and artillery. They have created conditions that will make it difficult for Russian forces to settle safely into winter quarters.

War of attrition: the toughest test

That also makes the current situation worse than a stalemate for the Ukrainians: this is now a war of attrition, of the sort western powers have not seen since the world wars of the last century. Wars of attrition are ultimately won by the side that can best gear up its industries and apply its productive capacity directly to the battlefield — from high-tech cyber systems down to bullets, boots and “meals ready to eat”.

The Russians can — eventually — do this for themselves. The Ukrainians can do some of this for themselves and are gearing up for a high-production arms industry in the future. But they can only match Russia in any real war of attrition with western support, particularly next year when Russia will be heavily dependent on what it can squeeze from North Korea, Iran and China.

Western leaders naturally recoil from the idea that the struggle between crude Russian imperialism and liberal democracy can be won only in an attritional way. They want to see Ukrainian forces achieve the sort of battlefield victories western forces enjoyed at times over the past 70 years, such as in the Falklands or the first Gulf War in 1991. But this summer indicates that it is unlikely to go that way. Kyiv is fearful that what happens at a coke and chemical plant or a sand quarry near Avdiivka may convince western observers, when they glance back from the Middle East, that an attritional war has begun. They fear that the West’s nerve will fail and 2024 will become Ukraine’s toughest test yet.

There is more at the link!

Kyiv:

Kharkiv:

When they talk about resilience, it’s this. Valeriy Onul lost a leg near Kherson, and Andriy Ilkiv stepped on a mine in Dementiivka. They didn’t hesitate to return to service in National Police. With prosthetic limbs and unwavering determination, they’re back in the field in Kharkiv.

📷 Ukrinform

Donetsk:

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

Russia says a nuclear facility in Kursk was hit by a Ukrainian drone. There is said to be damage to the wall, the state news agency TASS writes.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said: “The Russian Federation calls on all governments to strongly condemn Kyiv’s attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant.”

Voice of American News has the details:

Russia accused Ukraine of damaging a nuclear waste storage warehouse in a drone attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant and claimed its air defenses shot down eight Ukrainian drones.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Saturday that three explosive-laden drones targeted the power plant on Thursday night, striking its administration building and a facility storing nuclear waste. The press service for the Kursk nuclear power plant confirmed the strike Friday, but told journalists there was no significant damage or casualties and that operations were continuing as normal.

For you fans of Russian military equipment going kaboom, we’ve got several options this evening for your viewing pleasure:

 

If you were wondering about the “OSINT” account that the Starlink Snowflake has been promoting, it turns out it is a Soldier from the state of Georgia who promotes Russian misinformation and agitprop.

From Molfar:

OSINTdefender is a user of the social network X, which was previously known as Twitter. His posts often contain pro-Russian propaganda or blatant lies. Some of his publications have been a concern for many readers. For example, the story about Ukrainians being accused of a war crime for throwing a grenade at Russians or his praise of Russia’s power and its geopolitical influence,

Elon Musk endorsed this “analyst”. In social network X, misinformation spreads like wildfire. The fact that Musk supports such propagandist accounts is particularly alarming. Analysts at the “Molfar” agency decided to investigate OSINTdefender’s activities. They uncovered his intriguing details, including his name, workplace, and interests. We’ll delve deeper into this shortly.

The account we’ll discuss in this article hints at its intent right in its name, claiming to be an analytical expert specializing in open-source intelligence. Currently, it boasts over 800k followers on Twitter, with its posts reaching millions and garnering thousands of likes. Such platforms often earn users’ trust by presenting themselves as independent analytical sources, unveiling “hidden” truths.

OSINTdefender received an endorsement from Elon Musk. Yet, the content and activity of this account raise eyebrows. Predominantly, its posts support Russia while criticizing Ukraine. The immense influence and trust placed in OSINT practitioners might be exploited in this case.

Simon Anderson owns the “OSINTdefender” account, which he registered in December 2021. On Discord, the administrator of the OSINTdefender server goes by the name Leanandice.

Simon Anderson was born on October 19, 1999. As per his LinkedIn profile, he resided in Georgia, USA, until May 2022. However, according to True People Search, only one Simon Anderson in that state was born in November. In 2015, he worked as a cafe manager in Fayetteville, Georgia. It seems that from 2016 to 2019, he underwent training to become a military officer. In 2019, he joined the US Army, where he served as a radio frequency technician. Still, curiously, his profile mentions the US Air Force, also based in Fayetteville. His LinkedIn indicates that he started studying at Georgia Military College in 2020. In May 2020, he began identifying as an advanced electronics and computer sciences specialist with the US Naval Forces stationed in Great Lakes, Illinois.

There is much, much more at the link including a full breakdown and analysis of what he posts.

Jade McGlynn, PhD has an interesting piece at The Moscow Times on the purposes of Russian propaganda in occupied Ukraine.

Rather than a doubling down on propaganda narratives that hadn’t worked to date, this shift was an admission of defeat. The Kremlin understood that after 2014, it could not simultaneously produce effective propaganda for both Russians and Ukrainians in the occupied regions. So, it decided to create a new two-tier propaganda system.

The first tier, aimed at Russian audiences, comprises statements from collaborator officials, the output of newly established regional outlets of Russian federal media, and official collaborator Telegram channels. They produce narratives similar to those inside Russia itself: that Russia is fighting a special military operation against Western-backed Nazis to liberate Russian speakers from genocide and defend itself from Western attack. In so doing, it has made life better and will inevitably win.

As this narrative is primarily aimed at Russians and their proxies, the tendency to ignore residents’ continued daily experience of war makes sense. It is better not to remind Russians that it used to be Ukraine. It is far better to ignore the war entirely, as they don’t like hearing about it. Explaining that Russia is defending itself makes it easier to mobilize people for what they think is a defensive war.

Propaganda narratives are about creating a reality, or story, out of selectively picked facts in a way that avoids dissonance with what is actually happening. Clearly, these narratives are hard for Ukrainians living in occupied regions to believe. But they can still work for Russians watching at home.

The second tier, comprises newspapers, television and Telegram channels specially created for regions under occupation since 2014. The Russian occupation authorities introduced a free satellite package, “Russian World,” that is sometimes directly imposed on residents by installation brigades overseen by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko. As Ukrainian satellite terminals were dismantled by official edict, some families chose to install the Russian package so their children could watch television.

“Russian World” provides access to 20 Russian channels and to 10 local channels across the regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. These channels are mostly unavailable outside the occupied territories, with the package encrypted so that others in Russia, Ukraine, or abroad cannot find out what they are telling viewers.

While the main topics of the regional channels and the federal Russian television channels are broadly similar, to minimize dissonance, the framing differs. If federally available coverage proclaims Russia’s greatness, the local channels instead seek to demoralize and disorient residents by focusing on Russia’s invincibility and the impossibility of a Ukrainian victory.

The local channel Tavriya, which serves occupied Kherson region, focuses on the theme that Ukraine has become totally unliveable and faces a hopeless future. A recent segment in September 2023 asserted that Ukraine was almost entirely depopulated as everyone had fled from persecution from the Nazi authorities and/or saw no point in defending the country. Silently, a question is posed to viewers: why side with a country that nobody else is defending?

The local channels also feature the destruction of the war, though it is always inflicted by Ukraine, for no reason beyond “insane Kyiv Nazis” seeking to hunt and harm ordinary civilians. The fantastic claims of Ukrainian cruelty use fear to coerce residents into associating with the occupiers. For example, Russia has forcibly issued Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens, even threatening to remove children, access to food provisions, and healthcare for those who refuse to accept one. Now, propagandists tell the occupied territories that Kyiv will treat anyone who took a passport as a collaborator and punish them. On unofficial pro-Moscow Telegram channels, this narrative is bolstered by the argument that Ukraine has betrayed its people in the occupied territories by leaving them to the Russians. Kyiv did not come back for them, and now everything will be just as Russia planned.

If you believe that your country betrayed you, it becomes much easier to justify betraying your country. Especially if you are starting to think that it is pointless to wait for a liberation that will never come. And even if the Ukrainian army does come back, they may see you as a collaborator because you took a Russian passport. Why not just make life for yourself and your family by integrating into the new Russian order? What other options are there?

For those mentally strong enough to live through the traumas of war and occupation and still resist the power of the arguments above, the Russians have other methods besides propaganda. The occupying forces do not try to hide their brutal torture chambers, kidnappings of Ukrainian children, and summary executions from their new constituents. Everybody knows the cost of resistance. The television channels’ intense focus on the exposure and punishment of “Ukrainian terrorists” (who are in fact anti-Russian partisans, including children) means nobody is likely to forget it.

The difference between general Russian propaganda and its localized counterparts in the occupied regions was initially a story of failure: A failure to understand Ukrainians, a failure to sell them the Russian story. But by recognizing that failure, Russian narratives have become more effective. Residents are left with two options. They can deny reality and become the audience of Moscow’s fiction. Or they can accept the reality of living under occupation and act out this fiction for everyone else.

More at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

This new video at Patron’s official TikTok explains why he’s so tired:

@patron__dsns

🤪

♬ Benjamins Deli – JRitt

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

24Comments

  1. 1.

    Another Scott

    Reuters via VOANews.com:

    Qatar-mediated negotiations between Israel and Hamas aimed at de-escalating fighting in Gaza continued Saturday, a source briefed on the negotiations said, even as Israel intensified its assault on the enclave.

    Talks have not broken down, but they are taking place at a “much slower pace” than before the escalation Friday evening, the source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of negotiations.

    Gaza’s besieged people had barely any communications with the outside world on Saturday as Israeli jets dropped more bombs on the Hamas-ruled Palestinian enclave and military chiefs said a long-threatened ground offensive was gearing up.

    Qatar has been conducting behind-the-scenes diplomacy for more than three weeks, speaking to Hamas officials and Israel to promote peace and secure the release of hostages.

    […]

    Here’s hoping something good comes from the talks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  3. 3.

    Yutsano

    I see nothing in that video that a standard Jack Russell Terrorist couldn’t handle without energy to burn after. :P

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    I’m being selective about not posting those images or videos.

    As always, I appreciate your caution with this. Obviously, seeing photos on a screen from thousands of miles away is absolutely nothing compared to people who are seeing it in real life, right in front of their eyes. And there is an argument to be made about bearing witness. At the same time, sometimes the wide sharing of graphic images can feel potentially exploitative, especially since we often have no way to know how the people in the images or their loved ones feel about it being disseminated around the world. Plus, I’m sure I’m not alone in graphic images playing on random loops in your mind’s eye sporadically for the rest of your life.

    I always find it interesting to listen to people speak English when it’s not their first language and their natural accent is very present, hearing how their accent shapes certain words and vowel sounds and such. Often I think it sounds better from them than from native speakers.

    Duck family on a stroll in Kyiv. I would watch this for a solid hour, no joke.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  7. 7.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Thanks for highlighting the piece by Michael Clarke at RUSI, I think it is the most objective take I have read in recent weeks. If the assault agains Avdiivka has forced the Ukrainian Army to shift formations from the Zaporizhzhia sector to the Donetsk sector, thus partially relieving the pressure on defenses there, then it makes some strategic sense. The assault on Avdiivka also makes more strategic sense if it is seen less as a stepping stone toward the Dnipro & more as an attempt to consolidate Russian control of Donetsk.

    Of course, the Russia Army probably hoped for a surprise Blitzkrieg, rather than another meat grinder, not that the Russian high command seem to give a damn.

    ”Common sense” suggests that Russia would win a war of attrition. However, having to dig into neglected Cold War era stockpiles, & rely upon munitions from NK & drones from Iran, lay bare the sorry state of Russian military industrial capacity (& industrial capacity in general), so that particular “common sense” certainly should be challenged. OTOH, Western military industrial capacity has been shown to be inadequate for even a medium sized peer level conventional war, & rebuilding that capacity is taking much longer than anticipated. The Ukrainian arms industry seems to remain jury rigged. Then there is the matter of the large population loss that Ukraine has suffered before & especially after the invasion, due to refuge seeking & emigration.

    Forcing at least a stalemate via attributional warfare, then secure his current gains via Armistice, may actually be a rational & at least feasible strategy on Putin’s part. Ukrainian resistance will remain steadfast, but Western aid less so. Slovakia, hitherto a committed member of the anti-Russian coalition in CEE, just voted in a right wing government that intends to stop military aid to Ukraine. The EU is in economic recession, its civilian industrial competitiveness is being squeezed by Chinese & US industrial policy, while EU industrial policy is slow to take shape due to internal divisions, bureaucratic lethargy & lack of strategic vision (w/ a few exceptions such as regulating the internet platform monopolies/oligopolies). Not an environment conducive to costly long term support to Ukraine, vulnerable to populist backlash, exploitable by Russian influencing operations.

    Every rational analysis would conclude that aid to Ukraine is an exceptionally cost effective way to contain & diminish the Russian threat. However, when times are hard, people tend to become irrational & parochial.

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: BTW, it might be helpful if you state at the top that OSINTdefender is an ex-solder from Georgia the state, & not Georgia the nation. In the Russia-Ukraine context, both are equally plausible. I know the article clarifies it, but while I was reading your post my concentration was broken for a brief moment pondering if “Georgia” referred to the state or the country, & why would an ex-Georgian (the country) soldier be a pro-Russian propagandist. :-0

  10. 10.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Why is Israel even negotiating w/ Hamas right now? How could a deal be acceptable politically w/in Israel, or be credible & upheld by either side?

    Is the putative deal, leaving aside for the moment either party acting in good faith, Hamas releasing all hostages still alive & Israel halting military actions? Will Hamas turn over the commanders that planned & executed the 10/7 assault, and destroy most of its rocket arsenal? Will Israel release more convicted Palestinian prisoners, as well as thousands of Gazan “guest workers” caught in Israel during the assault & currently imprisoned w/o due process?

    The focus of pressure inside & outside of Israel should be to ensure that the IDF follows LOAC in its military operations, that Israeli military operations are proportional & justifiable, that humanitarian aid consistently reach the besieged Gazans, that the order to evacuate northern Gaza does not turn into an ethnic cleansing in disguise, & insist that Israel’ end game does not perpetuate the unsustainable status quo.

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: Israel has 230, as of the last update, of its citizens being held hostage and they need to get them back. I suspect any potential way to get them back will be tried.

  14. 14.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Yet, the way IDF has razed large parts of northern Gaza from the air, does not suggest that much concern for the fate of the hostages. Perhaps Bibi is performing at talks as well. & letting it leak to the media, to shore up his home front flank?

  16. 16.

    Chetan Murthy

    this was interesting and troubling.  1h22m, but really worth watching.  It reminded me a little of growing up in small-town TX, with lots of military families, and adulation of the military and military careers was common among the young (including my cohort).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=AyOAb7wxl3c
    “Inside Rural Russia: When Military and Patriotism Are Your Life | ENDEVR Documentary”

  17. 17.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Michael Clarke mentioned that Russia is now dipping into a reserve of missiles to strike at Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure ahead of winter again. I haven’t seen you post Ukrainian MOD’s daily AD tallies against Russian ballistic/cruise missiles & drones. Has the Ukrainian MOD stopped such tweets? Is Ukraine running out of interceptors? Or is Ukrainian AD becoming less effective in intercepting these missiles & drones (which seems hard to believe)?

  18. 18.

    wjca

    @Adam L Silverman: Bibi’s decision making, apart from doing whatever is best for Bibi, is opaque.

    It’s not particularly obvious that Bibi’s decision making, any of Bibi’s decision making, has any other basis.

  19. 19.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: In my opinion, Clarke’s analysis is problematic in many respects, the idea of a missile “reserve” to be dipped into being only one such.

    The Russians fire their missiles at a sustainable rate, determined by their procurement rate. If they slow down their firing rate temporatily to build up a reserve to be fired at greater effect later, this is not the same thing as dipping into an existing, depletable stockpile. There is no such remaining legacy stockpile, they fired it already. Averaged over a period of months, their firing rate is pretty much their acquisition rate.

    The other thing that I found really annoying about Clarke’s analysis is the justification of Avdiivka’s strategic importance to the Russians:

    Avdiivka is becoming another Bakhmut. Except that Bakhmut had no real strategic importance. It was a symbol the Wagner mercenaries wanted to create for themselves. But Avdiivka does have genuine strategic value: it is on a key route into the city of Donetsk, as close to the airport as it is to the northern suburbs of the city.

    That is horseshit. It attributes Russian strategic importance to this flyspeck suburb of Donetsk City in terms of the hypothetical importance that it might have in denying to the Ukrainians a hypothetical offensive thrust that they might attempt through Donetsk. An offensive that the Ukrainians have shown no interest in whatsoever, and that indeed would make no strategic sense for them to engage in, having made the decision to commit to the Southern thrust towards Tokmak and Melitopol/Berdiansk.

    Avdiivka has no strategic importance to the Russians. It is, in fact, exactly the same type of strategically meaningless politically symbolic objective as Bakhmut was. The only difference is that the political beneficiary is Gerasimov rather than Prigozhin.

    For the Russians to choose Avdiivka over Kupiansk as a place to commit reserve strength is simply imbecilic. Not that I’m complaining, mind you…

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Per Jim Sciutto of CNN:

    Note the distance US is putting between itself and Israel Gaza ops as US Gen returns home: “Make no mistake – what is, has or will unfold in Gaza is purely an Israeli decision…He was over, he’s back now and he provided his experience to be taken, not taken.” -Marine Commandant

    …

    Maj. Gen Glynn, who commanded the Marines in Fallujah, was sent to Israel to share the dangers & challenges of a land invasion & clearing of major urban areas, applicable to Gaza, although Gaza is likely to be far worse than Fallujah. Israel should have some experience from Southern Lebanon, as well.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: If Avdiivka is of such low importance, why has the Ukrainian Army shifted a battled hardened brigade from the Zaporizhzhia sector to that area of the front, reducing the force concentration in the far more strategically important sector? All the more so if Zaluzhny really believes that the Ukrainian Army is nearing the end of its offensive potential for this year in the South. The Ukrainians could have simply bled the Russia as much as possible w/ TDF units supported by some regulars, before withdrawing in good order.

    The Ukrainian political & military leadership have consistently maintained that their objective is a return to pre-2014 borders, & rightly so. (Western analysts calling such objectives “maximalist” is not helpful, even if such objectives may not be fully realistic in the end game.) That means they will eventually have to take Donetsk, too,  & I don’t think any foresees Russia giving up the DNR/LNR w/o a fight. Avdiivka could have served as the springboard for such an offensive, & it appears that the Ukrainian Army is willing to pay high costs to try to hold it.

    I recall that during the 1st phase of the Battle for Bakhmut the exchange ratio was very favorable to the Ukrainian side. However, as the Russians eventually captured the higher ground on the flanks (at enormous cost), the exchange ratios became far less favorable, & the Ukrainian Army tried to hold on to the city for longer than necessary, paying higher cost than necessary, in part for political reasons (because Bakhmut became a symbol for both sides). Now, the Ukrainian leadership avoided the Hitlerian/Stalinist mistake of ordering the defenders to defend & die in place for political prestige, and the Ukrainian units eventually did withdraw in good order, as at Severodonetsk/Lychychansk. However, in a war of attrition, such decisions have to be weighed carefully & constantly reassessed, so that it is the opposition that is being attrited more quickly.

    Avdiivka does not appear to be at that stage, yet, so we will have to see how many more units the Russian & Ukrainian armies throw into the cauldron there.

    I also think the stunning Ukrainian Blitzkrieg at Kupiansk last year, as well as the push to the river in Kherson, executed w/ such limited resources, set the expectations for Ukraine’s summer offensive to unrealistic levels.

  22. 22.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian:  If Avdiivka is of such low importance, why has the Ukrainian Army shifted a battled hardened brigade from the Zaporizhzhia sector to that area of the front, reducing the force concentration in the far more strategically important sector?

    …

    it appears that the Ukrainian Army is willing to pay high costs to try to hold it.

    A lot depends on just how high those costs.  In particular, how high they are relative to the costs to the Russians.   Especially in terms of equipment if, as it appears, the Russians are primarily expending their less trained and capable troops.

    If the ratio is 1:1 then it would definitely make sense for the Ukrainians to withdraw.  On the other hand, if the ratio were, say, 20:1 it might be entirely reasonable to keep going as long as the Russians are willing to bleed themselves.  That is, other sectors may be more strategically important as a matter of geography.  But reducing their enemy’s inventory of fighting vehicles may be of higher importance.

  23. 23.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: We don’t know. That is all part of the fog of war that we in the open source world are trying to penetrate, & no one involved in the war wants to make it easy for us. We know from Ukrainian & Western sources that Avdiivka has been tough for the Ukrainian side, too. We have seen footage early on of VDV assets being deployed (& chewed up) there, so some “quality” Russian formations were initially involved, although force composition may indeed have shifted to convicts & mobiks once it became another meat grinder, withholding the more valuable units to exploit potential breakthroughs.

    Now, I don’t think the offensive at Avdiivka was/is an effective employment of Russian reserves, given the high cost incurred to date while still being short of the objective, & the fact that the Ukrainian Army probably is not capable of nor desire to engage in the kind of urban meat grinder it would require to try to retake the city of Donetsk, and won’t any time soon. That is more of an operation for closer to the end game.

    I just think that Michael Clarke’s analysis allows for slightly more strategic rationale to the operation (to shore up Russian position around the city of Donetsk) than I thought a week ago. We think the exchange ratio is favorable to the Ukrainian side at Avdiivka right now, but that could change as we had seen at Bakhmut. Our speculations should take into account both the dense fog of war & its fluid nature.

  24. 24.

    Geminid

    @wjca: There is an assumption that Netanyahu is in charge of decision making that I am not sure is well-founded. The coalitition agreement Benny Gantz made with Netanyahu as a condition for bringing his National Unity party into the government was ratified by the Knesset and has the force of law.

    Under the agreement, a War Cabinet is in charge of major decisions. It consists of PM Netanyahu, Defense Minister Gallant, and Gantz. There are also two “Observers,” Ron Dermer and Gadi Eisenkot,* who apparently have advisory roles but no vote. Until I hear otherwise I am assuming that major decisions about this war are being made by the War Cabinet.

    * Dermer is a Netanyayu ally from his Likud party. Eisenkot is a member of Gantz’s party, and like Gantz is a former IDF Chief of Staff.

Comments are closed.