(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Last night I posted the link to and excerpts from General Zaluzhnyi’s recently published treatise on modern positional warfare. What I didn’t do was post excerpts from his interview in The Economist that provided the context to his thinking because the link I had was paywalled. YY Sima_Qian posted a gift link (thanks!) in the comments after I’d racked out last night, so we now have excerpts for context. Those will be after President Zelenskyy’s address/after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
I am confident Ukraine will definitely win; be confident in yourselves – address by the President of Ukraine
2 November 2023 – 20:39
I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!
A brief report for this day.
First – a video conference. The military, intelligence, our security forces, government officials. Special attention, of course, to the front. And a report on the work of our maritime export corridor – I am grateful to all who are fighting and working to ensure Ukraine’s access to the global market. The results are good. Russia is gradually losing control of the Black Sea and retreating to the eastern part of the waters… We will reach them there as well.
Second – an extended meeting with our government officials. Regarding the steps Ukraine needs to take, both in the context of our transformation and in our work with partners. Specific reforms. In various areas. We are preparing bills and government decisions. Some of them will be adopted in the coming weeks.
Third – a conversation with President of the European Council Charles Michel. Our progress in moving towards the European Union. The decision we expect this year regarding the start of membership negotiations. This decision will be significant, a very symbolic step that reflects how much Ukraine has achieved. We also discussed the situation in the Middle East – the threat of escalation, a tragic scenario. It is important to protect as many lives as possible. I invited Charles, Mr. President, to visit Ukraine.
Fourth – I had a meeting with the Minister of Defence of the Netherlands, who visited Ukraine. The minister visited Kharkiv – and I am grateful for this, for the attention to one of our largest cities, which suffers from practically daily Russian terror. We discussed in detail the defense support that the Netherlands provides, and this is vital. Our agreements with Mark, Mr. Prime Minister Rutte, are being fully implemented. I am grateful to the entire political class of the Netherlands and the entire society for their belief in Ukraine, for their belief in our people.
Fifth – I am grateful to the United States for the new and very powerful sanctions decision. More than 220 Russian – and not only Russian – entities that work on aggression are now under U.S. sanctions. This is what is needed. Critical sectors of the aggressor’s economy. Sensitive schemes for terrorists. And every sanctions decision must work in full – so that there is no chance for Russia to circumvent the sanctions. The power of sanctions is the power of the world. We are constantly communicating with our partners for this purpose – a united world must only become stronger.
Two more things.
I had a very substantive meeting with government officials. Various directions of government work. We discussed the steps needed for the transformation of our state, our work with partners, with donors. About government decisions, the necessary bills, strengthening institutions. We set priorities and are preparing new steps – in the coming weeks, by the end of the year, and on an annual basis.
And what I do every day is a great honor for me. Our warriors. Our gratitude. Those who distinguished themselves on this day. The Vuhredar direction – our strong 72nd separate mechanized brigade. Thank you, guys! Maryinka – the paratroopers of the 79th brigade, well done! Avdiyivka direction – the 31st, 47th, 53rd, and 110th separate mechanized brigades. I thank every soldier!
And Kupiansk direction – the 14th and 32nd separate mechanized brigades, the 57th separate motorized infantry brigade – I’m proud of you, guys! And I have confidence in you – just like on February 24th. I am confident that Ukraine will definitely win. Be confident in yourselves.
I am proud of everyone who fights for Ukraine, who destroys occupiers, who restores our positions. Those who are in the trenches right now. Those who are at combat posts. Those who train our soldiers. Those who produce weapons, ammunition, and equipment for Ukraine. Those who teach our children. Those who treat and save after strikes. Those who provide a normal life in our cities. Those who give us light. Everyone who gives us confidence – our parents, our children… Those who love us. Those who pray for us, for victory. Those who help us from all corners of the world. Those who endured basements and occupation – and did not break. Everyone who does everything every day to liberate Ukraine and Ukrainians from Russian captivity.
I am proud of you, Ukrainian people! I am proud of you, Ukrainian soldier!
Glory to Ukraine!
President @ZelenskyyUa:
«It's important to never forget how many people – different people – put their efforts into protecting our state and Ukrainians, preserving Ukraine, the resilience of our state, our society, and each and every one of us.Thank you to everyone who cares… pic.twitter.com/o4lkIPcPHi
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 2, 2023
President @ZelenskyyUa:
«It’s important to never forget how many people – different people – put their efforts into protecting our state and Ukrainians, preserving Ukraine, the resilience of our state, our society, and each and every one of us.Thank you to everyone who cares about the interests of Ukraine and Ukrainians! »
Was pleased to welcome to Kyiv Kajsa Ollongren, @DefensieMin of the Netherlands.
Grateful to Ms Ollongren and her country for their leadership in the F16 Coalition, including their willingness to provide aircraft and pilot training.
Briefed my colleague on the priorities of the… pic.twitter.com/8oY40px1xh
— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) November 2, 2023
Was pleased to welcome to Kyiv Kajsa Ollongren, @DefensieMin of the Netherlands.
Grateful to Ms Ollongren and her country for their leadership in the F16 Coalition, including their willingness to provide aircraft and pilot training.
Briefed my colleague on the priorities of the ministry’s activity and the situation at the frontline.
F16: Next year in Ukraine.
We're getting ready.📹: Haci Production pic.twitter.com/tzVXbiosDk
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 2, 2023
We are grateful to our German partners for another important military aid package, which includes:
◾️12 Armoured Personnel Carriers
◾️2 air surveillance radar TRML-4D
◾️7 reconnaissance drones Primoco ONE
◾️2 AMPS self-protection systems for helicopters
◾️5 unmanned surface…— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 2, 2023
We are grateful to our German partners for another important military aid package, which includes:
◾️12 Armoured Personnel Carriers
◾️2 air surveillance radar TRML-4D
◾️7 reconnaissance drones Primoco ONE
◾️2 AMPS self-protection systems for helicopters
◾️5 unmanned surface vessels
◾️10000 safety glasses
◾️32 SatCom terminals
◾️1 PCB printer
◾️4 truck tractor trains 8×8 HX81 and 4 semi-trailers*
◾️12 trucks MAN TGS
◾️30,000 winter clothing sets
Here are some excerpts from The Economist‘s interview with General Zaluzhnyi: (emphasis mine)
FIVE MONTHS into its counter-offensive, Ukraine has managed to advance by just 17 kilometres. Russia fought for ten months around Bakhmut in the east “to take a town six by six kilometres”. Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign with The Economist in an interview this week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable, forcing Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are the first and second world wars, in which Russia lost tens of millions.
An army of Ukraine’s standard ought to have been able to move at a speed of 30km a day as it breached Russian lines. “If you look at NATO’s text books and at the maths which we did, four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” General Zaluzhny says sardonically. Instead he watched his troops get stuck in minefields on the approaches to Bakhmut in the east, his Western-supplied equipment getting pummelled by Russian artillery and drones. The same story unfolded on the offensive’s main thrust in the south, where inexperienced brigades immediately ran into trouble.
“First I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades,” says General Zaluzhny. When those changes failed to make a difference, the general told his staff to dig out a book he once saw as a student. Its title was “Breaching Fortified Defence Lines”. It was published in 1941 by a Soviet major-general, P.S. Smirnov, who analysed the battles of the first world war. “And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”
General Zaluzhny describes a battlefield in which modern sensors can identify any concentration of forces, and modern precision weapons can destroy it. “The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other,” he says.
This time, however, the decisive factor will be not a single new invention, but will come from combining all the technical solutions that already exist, he says. In a By Invitation article written for The Economist by General Zaluzhny, as well as in an essay shared with the newspaper, he urges innovation in drones, electronic warfare, anti-artillery capabilities and demining equipment, as well as in the use of robotics.
Western allies have been overly cautious in supplying Ukraine with their latest technology and more powerful weapons. Joe Biden, America’s president, set objectives at the start of Russia’s invasion: to ensure that Ukraine was not defeated and that America was not dragged into confrontation with Russia. This means that arms supplied by the West have been sufficient in sustaining Ukraine in the war, but not enough to allow it to win. General Zaluzhny is not complaining: “They are not obliged to give us anything, and we are grateful for what we have got, but I am simply stating the facts.”
Yet by holding back the supply of long-range missile systems and tanks, the West allowed Russia to regroup and build up its defences in the aftermath of a sudden breakthrough in Kharkiv region in the north and in Kherson in the south late in 2022. “These systems were most relevant to us last year, but they only arrived this year,” he says. Similarly, F-16 jets, due next year, are now less helpful, suggests the general, in part because Russia has improved its air defences: an experimental version of the S-400 missile system can reach beyond the city of Dnipro, he warns.
The delay in arms deliveries, though frustrating, is not the main cause of Ukraine’s predicament, according to General Zaluzhny. “It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods,” he insists. “They will inevitably lead to delay and, as a consequence, defeat.” It is, instead, technology that will be decisive, he argues.
Crimea, the general believes, remains Mr Putin’s greatest vulnerability. His legitimacy rests on having brought it back to Russia in 2014. Over the past few months, Ukraine has taken the war into the peninsula, which remains critical to the logistics of the conflict. “It must know that it is part of Ukraine and that this war is happening there.” On October 30th Ukraine struck Crimea with American-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles for the first time.
General Zaluzhny is desperately trying to prevent the war from settling into the trenches. “The biggest risk of an attritional trench war is that it can drag on for years and wear down the Ukrainian state,” he says. In the first world war, politics interfered before technology could make a difference. Four empires collapsed and a revolution broke out in Russia.
Mr Putin is counting on a collapse in Ukrainian morale and Western support. There is no question in General Zaluzhny’s mind that a long war favours Russia, which has a population three times and an economy ten times the size of Ukraine. “Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people,” he says. For now he has enough soldiers. But the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to sustain. “We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”
In all seriousness, we in Ukraine are blessed by heaven to have a top military leader who is talented enough to have achieved outstanding, historically remarkable victories against an overwhelmingly stronger adversary despite a dire lack of resources – and also who is capable of…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 2, 2023
In all seriousness, we in Ukraine are blessed by heaven to have a top military leader who is talented enough to have achieved outstanding, historically remarkable victories against an overwhelmingly stronger adversary despite a dire lack of resources – and also who is capable of admitting his mistakes, talking about complicated truths, and laying out proper plans of how to move on.
Zaluzhny’s military is far from perfect, his war is brutal and bloodletting, and his burden is heavy. That’s for sure.
And from his article for the Economist, it gives me hope that we have Zaluzhny against Russia’s “seizig Kyiv in three days,” and “18,000 Ukrainian vehicles destroyed” and Shoigu’s “37 Ukrainian aircraft downed this month alone”.
For those of you who have been reading along for the past 616 days you know that my major criticism of the Biden administration’s approach to Ukraine is that it has been too risk averse, too slow, and unable to actually recognize the reality that we are in a world war and have been since Putin declared one at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 while blaming it on the US, our EU, and our NATO allies. As a result our defense industrial base is still not on a way footing and now we have two theaters of operations to worry about and no way to properly provision our allies and partners in either one. The result is that Putin has solidified his position and functionally frozen the conflict. At every single decision point, Putin has gotten what he wanted from the US: risk aversion, indecision, and a too slow by (at least) half response from the administration. From Congress he’s gotten gridlock now that the GOP controls the House and there is a sufficient nationalist-populist/isolationist/anti-Ukrainian rump among the Senate GOP to ensure that any further legislation to provide aid to Ukraine are unlikely to pass.
“The cold-eyed men in Moscow and Beijing must be as delighted as they are astounded by the spectacle of U.S. populists cultivating war weariness in a nation that is shedding no blood and is spending a pittance of its wealth.” https://t.co/d4rBvgxzzn
— John Sipher (@john_sipher) November 2, 2023
Gallup poll published on Thursday suggests US public growing increasingly skeptical of Ukraine funding. 41% of Americans believe US doing “too much” to support Ukraine, compared with 29% in June. Americans who think US backing for Kyiv “not enough” edged down to 25%; 28% in June. pic.twitter.com/uS1amXQL4t
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 2, 2023
What this leaves is the last $5 billion already appropriated and presidential drawdown authority under a declared emergency. Reuters has the details on that:
WASHINGTON, Nov 2 (Reuters) – The Biden administration plans to announce a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine on Friday including counter drone rockets and munitions, two U.S. officials said on Thursday.
The package is not expected to include additional ATACMS missiles. Senior congressional Republicans have urged President Joe Biden to send longer-range missiles to Ukraine, despite pushback from some conservative lawmakers against more aid.
The planned aid package for Ukraine includes about $300 million worth of laser-guided munitions to shoot down Russian drones, according to a document seen by Reuters and one of the officials. The funds for those munitions come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program, which allows the Biden administration to buy weapons from industry rather than pull from U.S. weapons stocks.
The remainder of the $125 million worth of weapons pledges include additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) air defenses, munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 105 and 155 millimeter artillery, TOW anti-tank weapons, Claymore anti-personnel mines, small arms, and a dozen trucks, according to the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Those weapons pledges are made possible by utilizing Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which authorizes Biden to transfer articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval during an emergency. The material will come from excess U.S. inventory.
The Biden administration still has about $5 billion of congressionally granted presidential drawdown authority, after the Pentagon found in June it had overestimated the value of arms shipped to Ukraine due to a $6.2 billion accounting error.
The Ukrainians are not going to stop, but if they fail to liberate all of their people and territory from Russian occupation, which amounts to a victory for Putin and Russia, that failure will not have been the result of any decision made in Kyiv or action taken on the battlefield in Ukraine. That failure will be the result of what was and was not done in the White House and in Congress.
Avdiivka:
Unbelievable.
The Battle of Avdiivka documented by Ukraine's 47th Mechanized. pic.twitter.com/BgGslMzEEj— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 2, 2023
47th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attacks on Avdiivka.https://t.co/5mOtKuwzRJ pic.twitter.com/YxUy42HV2k
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
Ukrainian journalist Butusov with a fairly detailed overview of the Avdiivka battlefield, saying that mistakes were made by the military command that led to the current crisis, but Ukrainian forces remain in a favourable position if they manage to organise defence of the flanks… pic.twitter.com/WG3PtbvQO1
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 2, 2023
Here’s the four screen grabs of Dmitri’s translation of the reporting:
53rd Brigade drones dropping anti-tank mines on Russians in Vodyane, southern flank of the Avdiivka battle.https://t.co/tcGcxkw5Jy pic.twitter.com/BDFqrFx7sR
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 2, 2023
Vuhledar:
It's been almost exactly a year when Russians tried to storm Vuhledar for the first time and even a year later the results are the same: disastrous.#Ukraine #Donetsk #Vuhledar https://t.co/Iy3gHh3VaV
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 2, 2023
72nd Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attack on Vuhledar front. Video by Deepstate.
“There is no full understanding of the circumstances of the battle yet. According to preliminary information, a column with a considerable amount of tanks and infantry tried to attack east of… https://t.co/iHNBopTaYU pic.twitter.com/BK5xvB2iWf
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
72nd Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attack on Vuhledar front. Video by Deepstate.
“There is no full understanding of the circumstances of the battle yet. According to preliminary information, a column with a considerable amount of tanks and infantry tried to attack east of the village Mykilske. As a result, at least 18 AFVs were destroyed/damaged, some of them can be seen in the video.
Excellent work 72nd Brigade.”
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17975
Deepstate about todays Russian attack attempt on Vuhledar front.
«Another column of the enemy has been defeated. This time in the Mykilske area.
⚔️As a result of heavy fighting, the enemy failed. A total of 18 AFVs were lost byRussians. Among them, at least 8 tanks and 3 MT-LB… pic.twitter.com/2120upMJtF
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
Deepstate about todays Russian attack attempt on Vuhledar front.
«Another column of the enemy has been defeated. This time in the Mykilske area.
⚔️As a result of heavy fighting, the enemy failed. A total of 18 AFVs were lost byRussians. Among them, at least 8 tanks and 3 MT-LB were preliminary identified. Russians tried to advance from the eastern outskirts of Mykilske.
📹 The video of the defeat will be coming soon.»
The first videos of Russian morning attack on the Vugledar front began to appear. Preliminarily, Russian losses shown in the video are identified as: 1xT-80BV with the KMT-7 mine trawl; 2xT-72B3 obr.2022; 1xBMP-1 or 2.https://t.co/KpPrjtUjbL https://t.co/UrEbD8yvm9 pic.twitter.com/MLfrSPSoj2
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
This morning Russians made attempts to attack on the Vugledar front. It is said that at least 10 pieces of Russian equipment were destroyed.
Photos by soldiers of the 72nd Brigade of Ukraine.https://t.co/PUWy1eXK3Ohttps://t.co/5BmiuZViB3 pic.twitter.com/ekw8ukkA1j— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
Kupyansk:
Part 2
14th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attacks on Kupyansk front. https://t.co/pmfdwJlcVJ https://t.co/AJSeaKRHbj pic.twitter.com/I3ybM4yp35— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
Bakhmut:
Strike on Russian command and staff vehicle R-149AKSh-1. Bakhmut direction. ~22km from the front. https://t.co/z9z8gmwgcb pic.twitter.com/40jEFl6qh9
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian Occupied Kherson Oblast:
Four more Russian BTR-82A destroyed in the left bank Kherson region. Video by the Birds of Magyar unit. https://t.co/D4ddlLd0uV pic.twitter.com/qqZUybWyAo
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
Svitlodarsk, Donetsk Oblast:
Strike on the Zala 421-16E during preparations for the flight. By the 3rd Separate Special Purpose Regiment of Ukraine. Near Svitlodarsk, Donetsk region.
P.S: The video is also a good reminder that shrapnel exists.https://t.co/ahGFPzPkIP pic.twitter.com/nFfZeupmdb— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
For you logistics and acquisitions enthusiasts:
Piranha AVD 360 electronic warfare complex, designed for protection of armoured vehicles and personnel against Russian UAVs, currently under development in Ukraine
“The complex creates a protective dome up to 600 meters around itself. Under the influence of the system, the… pic.twitter.com/1pexQIBhcA
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2023
Piranha AVD 360 electronic warfare complex, designed for protection of armoured vehicles and personnel against Russian UAVs, currently under development in Ukraine
“The complex creates a protective dome up to 600 meters around itself. Under the influence of the system, the copter or kamikaze drone cannot receive commands and transmit data. As a result, the “bird” either hangs in the air, makes an emergency landing, or falls uncontrollably.
Piranha also suppresses satellite navigation systems, for example, the Russian GLONASS. Now the system has successfully passed field tests and is ready for serial production.” – Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov.
Russian military wives after dark:
Fascinating story about the wives of Russian soldiers who have turned against the war – not because of the dead Ukrainian children but because their husbands left them for women they met in the occupied territorieshttps://t.co/NVPTLpYkV0
— Jade McGlynn (@DrJadeMcGlynn) November 2, 2023
Here’s some machine translated excerpts:
Since February 2022, Russian authorities have been cultivating the image of a war hero who, risking his life, protects his homeland and family from an external threat in Ukraine. But the wives of the military are increasingly recognized: the husband met another in the war and demands a divorce.
For some of them, it was the crisis in the family, and not thousands of reports of killed Ukrainians, that was an occasion to overestimate what was happening in Ukraine.On September 25, 2023, two women met in one of the courts of the Yaroslavl region: Veronika, a local resident, and Svetlana, who came to a meeting from Voronezh. Both appeared in court for the sake of one divorce proceedings, in which mobilized Mikhail could not personally participate.
« Husband on the SVO, so he wrote a power of attorney on her, and she came to divorce me, — Veronica tells the journalist „ Turns “ voice message and crying. — Received mean — and my husband, and volunteer. The blow was good, unpleasant in the back. But the court postponed the divorce for three months. I immediately said that I want to keep the family ».
Since the fall of 2022, Svetlana has been purchasing humanitarian aid and military equipment for Russian soldiers and is transporting through frontline areas. So she met Veronica’s husband.
To file for divorce, they came to the Yaroslavl region together when the mobilized had a vacation in August. A few weeks before that, the volunteer wrote to Veronica in a snap.
« Say, I’m sorry, please, we fell in love with each other, God brought us together, — she retells her message. — And I replied: I brought you down, and I was saved ».
Veronica wrote about the fact that her marriage is crumbling in the comments of one of the largest communities in « VKontakte », where for more than a year the wives of Russian mobilized and contractors have been discussing their problems and supporting each other.
Anonymous reports of a crisis in the family alternate in groups with tips on how to encourage military personnel, what equipment to buy at the front, and what if the spouse came on vacation « the wrong person ». By posting on treason in a war or on the desire to divorce a fighting husband, many women admit that they are ashamed.
— Please, without judgment, and so enough. My husband turned out to be a traitor. We need a divorce from the mobilized, there is a child, he will be three years old soon. What documents are needed and how to do it without problems, then to live in peace and without tears?
— Anonymous because it is embarrassing. I cry every night in the pillow, put candles in the church for him, and he? But she faced condemnation. Mom is terrified of what I’m doing. How I will be alone with children, I must forgive and wait. In addition, no one canceled the money.
— My husband also found a Ukrainian with a child, and he no longer needs his own family. Even the photo posted them in « Classmates ». The son, when he saw, cried badly. Do not forgive them just for being at war.
— Mine also found another. Waited, cried, prayed that she would survive. And when he said « not needed », spat. He married and died.
— Lovely ladies, do not squish your nose! Grow spiritually! Of course, he did a bad job, but karma is smacking worse. We are waiting for the answer of the universe.
— Let it bring down. Do not spare, do not give a divorce. Will die — get paid. If he survives, he will remain naked and whores will not need it. That’s all the advice.
Community subscribers often ask administrators not to publish posts about military changes. Like, they increase the level of anxiety in readers and provoke new fears. Some women even claim that similar stories — « TAG1> are invented to » destroy the morale of « the Russian military and their families.
Those who really face treason reassure each other in personal messages, calculate alimony, turn to psychologists and energy practitioners to « forgive » spouse, or try to get him back from the war and keep his marriage at home.
Much, much more at the link!
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There’s a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those won’t embed here, so if you want to see it click through.
Here’s some Patron adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
This cat predicts that your day will be nice. Just believe it!
📸: 241st @TDF_UA Brigade pic.twitter.com/j404D95bWu
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 2, 2023
Alison Rose
Yeppppp. Unfortunately, too many people in this country WANT to see a victory for putin. Pathetic, traitorous, and disgusting. You can even see bits of this in that poll. Idiotic voters who probably barely know a thing about the situation, but also don’t care if russia wins because they’ve been gobbling up the kremlin propaganda helpfully distributed to them by Fox. Bah. A pox on all their houses.
On a lighter note, this line:
gave me Oregon Trail nostalgia.
Regarding the General’s name — like other Ukrainian names, I’ve seen numerous forms of it. Is it similar to Zelensky/Zelenskyy/Zelenskiy in that all the spellings are basically equal and acceptable? Or would there be one that is more, like…”correct”?
Thank you as always, Adam.
Joseph Patrick Lurker
Adam,
Can you recommend any blog, website, or other online resource that provides a detailed, daily roundup of major developments in the Israel Hamas war that’s comparable to what you’re providing here about the Ukraine Russia war?
sab
@Joseph Patrick Lurker: I am not Adam, but I don’t think it can be done because communications are so spotty in Gaza. Collecting information, and then broadcasting it out of Gaza
But also we need to be careful to not stop coverimg Ukraine.
VeniceRiley
Pissed at Biden over this. Or Jake effing Sullivan or what ever. Buck does stop at top.
Every time I read a curated list of pleas at r/ukraine I wonder why we haven’t flooded the zone with everything they need, ffs.
Thanks Adam.
sab
I could not understand Republicans hostility to Ukraine funding when most of the various Slavic-Americans I know are Republican, Right wing, anti-Putin.
Then I remembered most Republicans are not Slavic. And MAGA Republicans are still pissed about impeachments one and two. Impeachment One was Zalenskyys fault.
Does this make sense?
MattF
SBF convicted on all counts.
Mike in DC
Since the US sent ATACMS, shouldn’t Germany be sending Taurus missiles now, since they made it contingent on that?
Princess
@Joseph Patrick Lurker: I find the Haaretz live blog useful.
Another Scott
I heard a bit of Blinken and Austin’s testimony about the Supplemental on Halloween. Here’s the video.
At around 1:01:50 Austin starts to talk about the numbers:
$10.6 B to Israel defense
$44.4 B to Ukraine defense
$3.3 B for submarine industrial base and AKUS
$50 B for the US defense industrial base (including sales of new items to Israel and Ukraine, apparently)
I’m sure things will be changed, maybe more for Israel; we’ll see what finally comes out.
Like everyone else, I wish things happened faster in supporting Ukraine, but I understand why they don’t (especially given US and NATO politics). (Insert link to 1950s article at TheAtlantic (IIRC) that complains about slow ramp of US industrial output for the Korean War.)
Thanks Adam.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Joseph Patrick Lurker: @sab: I can’t because I haven’t been looking for any. Also, I quickly decided that doing updates for two wars each day was just too much, which is why I’m not doing it. If you can access their accounts via Twitter or Nitter instead of Twitter, I recommend Noga Tarnopolsky, Amir Tibon, Anshel Pfeffer, Daniel Seidman, and Barak Ravid’s accounts.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, …
Their touted “unity” after electing him doesn’t seem to actually be there in practice.
We’ll see what happens, but I’m still not suspecting much until the week of November 17.
Cheers,
Scott.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@sab: I’ve wondered that, also. The Republican reaction feels like an irrational response to a perceived grievance.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
This isn’t WW2. Germany attacked Russia. They were defending their land. I don’t believe Putin could maintain a stable Russia and have losses in the millions. Having so many drunks, prisoners, and restive minorities die doesn’t seem to bother greater Russian society much, but those aren’t the only soldiers they are losing or will lose. If they continue to bleed like this, they are going to have to call up more troops. At some point, people with influence start losing their friends and neighbors. Because this is a war of choice, not defense, the amount of loss people are willing to accept is lower. Even in a feudal state like Russia, there is a limit.
YY_Sima Qian
@Joseph Patrick Lurker: Shashank Joshi at the Economist has been doing daily Twitter threads that summarizes the resource from a variety of sources, adding his own commentary.
Carlo Graziani
“War footing” is not the right frame for adjustments required to US military procurement. The phrase conveys national war mobilization on WWII scale, which is obviously unnecessary. The US did not put its economy on a “war footing” at any time during the Cold War. It would be absurd to think that such an extreme measure might be necessary now.
The problem that the US has is what we’ve learned to call a “supply-chain constraint.” It’s similar to disappearing toilet paper at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, when sudden, massive shifts in demand from institutional dispenser-compatible rolls to home dispenser rolls meant that wood pulp resources were suddenly being routed to the wrong product.
Similarly, we were procuring weapons for decades according to war scenarios that envisioned Iraq- or Afghanistan-scale efforts, not major conflicts with Russia in Europe. Suddenly, the demand shifted, and supply (of artillery shells, for example) is having trouble keeping up.
But note that a little more than a year ago, well-informed personages such as Gen. Hertling were warning about the Ukrainian firing rate of M31 missiles from HIMARS units were likely to deplete the entire US planned 5-year production schedule in a few months, and many analysts were warning that the M31 manufacturing chain might take years to receive a throughput upgrade. Yet here we are, a year later, with the UA happily firing the damn things at any worthy target, and the supply issue appears to have faded away.
That’s the thing about the US government that always takes everyone by surprise: when it gets going, it really gets there in a hurry. The artillery shell issue is being corrected, have no doubt about that. It requires nothing in the nature of a war mobilization to accomplish that, just contract incentives to correct supply-chain issues.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Gen. Zalushnui himself deliberately underplayed the impact of delays in Western aid, although I am not sure if he is simply being polite to his Western interlocutor & the Western audience. I agree that, while no single weapons system could have been decisive, releasing HIMARS, HARM, SCALP-NG/Stormshadows, Taurus, ATACMS more quickly & more decisively (I.e., emptying Western arsenals in so doing), would have made a material difference. Attacking prepared defenses is always slow & costly, but sufficiently disrupt C&C & logistics, the opposing force might not be able to sustain a determined defense, & might rout if the line is breached anywhere (as opposed to an organized retreat falling back to the next line of defense).
I am not sure of the decision to wait for the NATO trained brigades to be ready before commencing the summer offensive, affording the Russians the opportunity to construct the Surovikhin Lines, was made in Kyiv or if Kyiv was talked into it by DC/Brussels/London, but it seems a fateful one in hindsight.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: I think he was being polite and circumspect.
Another Scott
@Mike in DC:
TheWarZone has a story on this at the top of the page:
Much more at the link.
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
Yep.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose:
Many Ukrainian surnames, including that of the President and the General, end in “ий.” The first of those two letters is a vowel, which is pronounced kind of like the “i” in “win.” The second letter is in all instances pronounced like the Amerenglish letter “y.” The combination of the two, though, is a diphthong that I can’t easily come up with an example of in Amerenglish. So romanizing/transliterating it has always been a challenge. Without going into a multi-thousand word essay on romanization of Cyrillic, suffice it to say that the romanization of that ending has varied quite a bit over the years. As in electronics/computer science, you can say “I love standards – there are so many to choose from.”
So while a couple of decades ago “yj” was widely accepted, now you will variously see “yy” or “yi” or “iy.” Some people will make an issue of the choice, but generally any native speaker will know what’s being represented and skim past. Some may have noted that I will try to correct people on “Kyiv” or “Dnipro” or “Kharkiv” but will not make an issue of this name ending; the reason for that is that in the cases of the place names, the “old” romanizations are of russian transliterations of the Ukrainian names, which Ukrainians find objectionable. The “ий” ending is uniquely Ukrainian, so less fraught.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
I think this take is far too sanguine, & inconsistent w/ what Ukrainian & Western analysts are reporting. Perhaps the bottlenecks associated w/ M31 guided rockets have eased, but there are still significant impending shortages of 155 mm howitzers rounds, & the US/France/UK aren’t making a lot more ATACMS/SCALP-NGs/Stormshadows. I think the Ukrainians are firing M31s at any worthy target because the Russians are learning & adapting, dispersing ammo dumps, logistical nodes, command posts & troop staging areas. There simply aren’t the kind of juicy targets that might have an immediate operational impact, as when the HIMARS was initially introduced to the battlefield, at leasts not w/in M31 range.
The initial introduction ATACMS had an immediate & significant impact at the operational level, severely degrading Russian rotary wing assets in the Zaporizhzhia sector, at least for a time. However, the Russians will respond by pulling back its aviation assets out of ATACMS range, increase dispersion/spacing so that fewer assets can be destroyed/damaged by a single ATACMS strike, but at the expense of slower response time to front line requests for support/shorter loitering time near the front lines, as well as greater friction in operations.
wjca
That need to tolerate casualties in enormous numbers is why Putin has been trying so hard to make it WW II.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Also, supply of M31 rockets may have eased, 20 mos. after the start of the invasion & more than a year after HIMARS was 1st introduced to Ukraine. However, that is far too slow if the goal is to enable Ukrainian victory & removal of Russian occupation over pre-Feb. 2022 territories (let alone pre-2014 territories) as soon as possible. That is hardly an accomplishment for US defense industry worth touting. IIRC, Robert Gates ramped up MRAP production for the Iraqi Surge more quickly, & that included contract tender, design & evaluation of new designs, as opposed to expanding production of fixed & mature designs.
The US economy does not need to go on a war footing, nor does all of the US defense industry, just the small subset most relevant to the Ukrainian war effort.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Many thanks.
Sally
@Joseph Patrick Lurker: The UK Telegraph have a (free) daily Ukraine: The Latest podcast, which they are supplementing with specials on Israel/Gaza podcasts. I have found Francis Dearnley’s interviews to be excellent on geopolitics and the UA war in particular. I have not followed the Israel/Gaza podcasts as yet, which I think are called Battle Lines: Israel-Gaza. They are embedded with the other pods.
Geminid
@Sally: Middle East Eye correspondent Ragip Soylu is also covering breaking news on this war in his Twitter feed (@ragopsoylu). Mr. Soylu is based in Istanbul.
bookworm1398
I understand the people who want to pursue an isolationist policy atleast. I don’t understand the ones who have switched to saying stop funding Ukraine- why? It’s baffling
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: What do you think of the Middle East Eye? I am seeing wildly varying appraisal.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I first stated looking at the Middle East Eye for its civerage of the Turkish elections in May. Since then, I have appreciated its coverage of African news, especially the role of the Wagner Force. I think its reporting on the Israel/Gaza war is basically sound, with the some exceptions. I might describe it as slanted towards the Palestinian side, but that’s just my opinion.
I like Ragip Soylu’s reporting, including articles in September about the warming of relations between Greece and Turkiye. Poor Soylu is often berated for writing “Turkey” instead of Turkiye. My guess is that he’s conforming to the MEE‘s editorial policy.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Thanks for the explanation! I think MEE reporting adds useful perspective, in addition to the Western & Israeli MSM ones (even ones that are liberal/left wing/pro-peace/pro-2 state solution). However, some instances of seeming trafficking conspiracy theories, falling for fakes & producing polemics (which I am allergic to) have given me pause.
Mart
@sab: I tuned into AM hate talk radio while driving in the countryside, before Gaza. It was non-stop time to dump Ukraine and defend OUR border. Suppose now it is drop Ukraine and defend Israel. The fact that for 5% of our defense budget Ukraine has demolished half of Russia’s capabilities with no US soldiers harmed is never mentioned. I don’t get it either, other than if a Dem is handling it, it is bad
ETA – Thanks Adam.