(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Just a brief(ish) update tonight.
Before we get started, I have no idea what is going to happen with Secretary Austen. I will say I doubt that he’s going anywhere largely because there is no way to get a replacement through the Senate nomination process. The nominee for Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, which is the #3 position at the Department of Defense, was nominated in July 2023. He’s not getting confirmed any time soon. Not because there’s a hold, but because the Senate GOP minority is just grinding the gears on the nomination. Austen’s replacement would, most likely, have a hold put on him or her by Tubberville or Vance or Cotton – and I expect it would be a her – until the Biden administration reverses the female reproductive healthcare policy and other policies that the GOP believe are “woke.” Ultimately it isn’t going to make a difference, because it is unlikely the US government, including the DOD, is going to be open five weeks from now.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
I held a meeting on our plans for this year in relations with partners in the European Union and NATO; we are clearly formulating our tasks – address by the President of Ukraine
7 January 2024 – 18:34
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
A few summaries of the day.
First. Today, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan is paying a visit to Ukraine. Our very important, very strong partner. I am grateful for the level of relations achieved between our countries – a true partnership, a strategic partnership. I am grateful for the support that Japan has provided to our country. This includes security assistance, strong leadership in the Group of Seven and in the international arena in general, economic support – we appreciate it – and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. One of our best international results is our relations with Japan. Now there is a new large package of energy support for Ukraine. I am grateful for the financial support to our country. Today we discussed our further cooperation, in particular the Ukraine Recovery Conference scheduled for February, as well as our further joint security steps, work on the Peace Formula and on strengthening sanctions against Russia. I am confident that this year will also be quite meaningful for our relations.
Second. Sweden. Today I took part in the opening of the security conference organized annually by the Swedish association “People and Defense.” It is one of the most important events in Northern Europe and the most influential in Sweden. The conference will continue throughout the week – today is the first day. I outlined our country’s vision of the challenges and opportunities for our countries – Ukraine and Sweden – and for Europe as a whole. The key is solidarity and joint action. We have already shown that our consolidation – of everyone in Europe and the free world – can overcome even the most large-scale manifestations of aggression. And this year we must accomplish even more. We must also boost cooperation in defense production – in joint projects, particularly in Ukraine. Swedish CV-90 combat vehicles and Swedish artillery – “Archers” – have already proven themselves in the hands of our warriors at the front. And our entire Europe has sufficient potential to guarantee security under any circumstances and sentiments in global politics.
Third. I held a thorough meeting on our plans for this year in relations with our partners in the European Union and NATO. Our communication, our internal changes, and the steps we expect in our relations. This also includes non-public work with partners. We are clearly formulating our tasks. The meeting was attended by the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, the Prime Minister and the relevant Deputy Prime Minister, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Defense and his first deputy, international relations officials from the Presidential Office, and the Head of the Office. Our priorities are clear: to fully implement the decision on opening negotiations, to prepare our negotiation framework with the European Union, and to develop a system of relations and communication with the Alliance members so that every state and every leader feels one hundred percent that NATO will become much stronger together with Ukraine.
One more thing. Today, emergency rescue operations are still ongoing in Pokrovsk and the surrounding villages. This is Donetsk region. The consequences of the Russian missile strike, which took place yesterday. The search for people under the rubble continues. All the necessary services are working at the scene, including our rescuers from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and police officers. And I am grateful to each and every person involved in this work. I would especially like to mention Sergeant Vitaliy But, Chief Master Sergeant Volodymyr Dolzhenko, Senior Lieutenant Bohdan Machulnyi and Major Serhiy Pyshnohraiev. I am grateful for your dedication. I would also like to commend the police officers in Donetsk region: Police Sergeant Illia Petrenko, Police Lieutenant Yaroslav Yaresko and Police Captain Serhiy Levchenko. Thank you, guys.
I would also like to mention the police officers of Kharkiv region – those involved in dealing with the consequences of Russian terrorists’ strikes, those who help people, communicate with the relatives of those who died, establish the truth and record evidence of Russian war crimes. In particular, I would like to praise the police officers who worked at the scene after the Russian strike on the village of Hroza in Kupyansk district: Police Major Yulia Brazho, Major Nataliia Matviienko, and Colonel Oksana Oliynyk. I am grateful to you and all your colleagues who work for the sake of people and Ukraine.
I thank everyone in Ukraine who contributes to the strength of our country, who strengthens our positions, our warriors and the entire Ukrainian people.
Glory to Ukraine!
The cost:
"Where are your poets, Ukrainians?"
Young poet Maksym Kryvtsov was killed by Russian forces today. Russia has been deliberately killing Ukrainian intelligentsia from the 17th century and now on… pic.twitter.com/Qts6AlQfNp— Yarema Dukh 🇺🇦 (@yarko) January 7, 2024
Today Russia silenced Maksym Kryvtsov – a soldier and a brilliant poet. I lost count of how many talents we lost in this war. But then they claim Ukrainian culture doesn’t exist. The least we can do is not to forget
Translation by Kateryna Khinkulova pic.twitter.com/4lEroGFyXL
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 7, 2024
Tokyo:
Taiwan has vocally backed Ukraine, Japanese leaders keep turning up in Kyiv & South Korea underwrote last year’s offensive with shells. Sure seems like US’ Asian allies don’t see Ukraine as a grave distraction from Indo-Pac. https://t.co/jHZCfjN9Ly
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 7, 2024
Japan has decided to contribute $37 million to a NATO trust fund to provide a drone detection systems to Ukrainehttps://t.co/x2lI24LHoU pic.twitter.com/zkG6vQZrg3
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 7, 2024
Chernihiv Oblast:
Russian pontoon bridge drawn by the flow of the Desna River from the territory of Russia to Ukrainehttps://t.co/dXC8PpypAG pic.twitter.com/kdQ6y1N5by
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 7, 2024
I think the pontoon bridge is planning to defect.
Novomikhailivka, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:
“Perun Group” of the 79th Brigade strikes on Russian targets and makes sure that Russians will not be able to evacuate any of their AFVs, abandoned during the unsuccessful attempts to attack Novomikhailivka. Donetsk region
https://t.co/1v9v94mARr pic.twitter.com/3JVPc99lbU— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 7, 2024
An update on the Shagol air field in Chelyabinsk, Russia:
In reference to the attack against the Shagol Airfield in Chelyabinsk, Russia, which occurred 3 days ago (see repost) and of which Pro-Russian social media users denied that it happened, a 16-year old from Dagestan has been put into pre-trial detention in Chelyabinsk. He is… https://t.co/BPpH53X33N pic.twitter.com/gozavEpFE4
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 7, 2024
In reference to the attack against the Shagol Airfield in Chelyabinsk, Russia, which occurred 3 days ago (see repost) and of which Pro-Russian social media users denied that it happened, a 16-year old from Dagestan has been put into pre-trial detention in Chelyabinsk. He is accused to set fire on the very same airfield.
Source: https://t.me/astrapress/45579
Moscow Oblast, Russia:
In the Moscow Region, people were forced to make a bonefire to keep themselves warm.
Reason is that in many houses the heating systems have stopped working. While this is hardly uncommon in crumbling Russia, what is new that companies who made sure for replacement parts are… pic.twitter.com/gNS3dVahk2
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 7, 2024
In the Moscow Region, people were forced to make a bonefire to keep themselves warm. Reason is that in many houses the heating systems have stopped working. While this is hardly uncommon in crumbling Russia, what is new that companies who made sure for replacement parts are working for the war industry and are crippled by “accidents”.
For you Electronic Warfare (EW) enthusiasts, here are some excerpts from The Financial Times reporting on Ukrainian and Russian EW capabilities.
Russia’s record number of aerial attacks on Ukraine over the New Year period has highlighted Kyiv’s struggle to bolster its electronic warfare technology aimed at jamming and diverting enemy drones and guided missiles.
Both sides have invested heavily in systems that can neutralise each other’s drone armies, but Moscow maintains the upper hand as it had already focused on these capabilities before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago.
Ukrainian forces are however trying to catch up.
Mykola Kolesnyk, commander of a Ukrainian drone unit, said electronic warfare (EW) duels with the Russian forces were fierce and relentless. He described them as “invisible scissors that cut off the connection . . . of a device that is remotely controlled”.
Ukraine and Russia are both using tens of thousands of drones a month. Both have this year increasingly turned to cheap, commercially available first-person view drones controlled by operators using a head-mounted camera.
“The Russians have been producing so many lately that it’s becoming a huge threat,” said Col Ivan Pavlenko, chief of EW and cyber warfare at Ukraine’s general staff. “What’s happening here, the massive use of drones, is new . . . So EW becomes increasingly important.”
Pavlenko called on allies to deliver more capabilities that can “suppress or spoof” the satellite guidance system (GNSS) of Russia’s guided missiles and drones.
“Delivery to Ukraine of a sufficient number of powerful GNSS jammers or at least signal amplifiers could also help counteract enemy air attacks.”
Also, with Russia’s EW systems requiring high-tech components such as amplifiers, synthesisers and software, it was important for western allies to impose sanctions on those components, he said.
The ubiquity of drones on the battlefield is one reason why Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive this year failed to make any significant territorial gains and why the land war is now largely static. Any grouping of tanks or armoured vehicles can be spotted and destroyed within minutes.
Russia has increasingly deployed EW to push off-course Ukraine’s western-supplied, precision-guided munitions, such as Himars rockets and Excalibur artillery shells. Moscow has also used its EW capabilities to mimic missile and drone launches in order to confuse Ukraine’s air defences and identify their locations, Pavlenko said.
Without EW protection, Ukrainian troops are easy prey for drone-guided artillery strikes, drones dropping bombs and kamikaze strikes by exploding unmanned aerial vehicles.
One Ukrainian soldier bemoaned the lack of EW protection for his unit, which was largely wiped out during weeks of intense bombardment on the eastern front, with Russian drones “hitting us like mosquitoes”.
“What radio-electronic warfare? . . . We had none. I don’t even want to recall those days in the trenches. Our boys were falling like flies,” he added.
Gen Valeriy Zaluzhny, commander-in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, warned in November that EW was “the key to victory in the drone war” — and in breaking the deadlock along the frontline.
Much more at the link!
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Nukular Biskits
Just a quick commentary about EW and drones:
Without getting into specifics, the US Navy has a portable unit for commanding commercial drones getting a little too close to either RTB or to splash.
Another Scott
@Nukular Biskits: I’m reminded of the RQ-170 incident with Iran.
Anything without a pilot on board can potentially be taken over by adversaries. It’s a never-ending battle (like the rest of technology development for warfare).
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
WhiteHouse.gov:
The GQP usually shuts down the government in non-election years, so that is another reason to be optimistic that this particular drama is winding down.
The RollCall story reads to me like the GQP got rolled again.
But it’s not over until it’s over. We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: The House GOP didn’t get rolled. This is the nut graph:
Until or unless the House GOP brings any appropriations bills to the floor for a vote – individuals or omnibus – then nothing has or will move forward and the government will shut down.
Before you reply with I don’t do well forecasting, I’ll remind you that I accurately forecast that Youngkin would win and that the GOP would retake the House because, in the latter case, you cannot out organize extreme gerrymanders.
Alison Rose
I do wonder wtf Austin was thinking. Like, my dude, did you think no one would notice? Not only are you very important, you are also the size of a small mountain. I mean that as a compliment.
Here is the video of Zelenskyy’s address to the Swedish association, if anyone is interested. The intro is dubbed over with Ukrainian, but he speaks in English for his main remarks with Ukrainian subtitles. (At the end is a brief Q&A portion which is not in English.)
Fuck yeah, Japan 🇯🇵🤝🇺🇦
Puck the Tactical Cat doing some intelligence reconnaissance.
Thank you as always, Adam.
MobiusKlein
I am continually disappointed that the Senate is a roadblock in governance, for things that should be normal straightforward things. Like approving or rejecting important positions in the US Government.
Time for up or down votes on nominations, within a reasonable timeframe.
Jazz Bass
Hi Adam, yesterday you mentioned that it seems unlikely that the $300 billion in Russian assets are going to be used to support Ukraine. When you have chance could you, please, elaborate why that’s the case?
Thanks!
YY_Sima Qian
Chasing the “Credibility” fairy (alongside “Deterrence” über alles) are some of the worst tendencies of “Blob” foreign policy, & has historically led to numerous debacles for the US in history (Domino Theory anyone?). I don’t think the US abandoning Ukraine will make it more likely that the PRC will in invade Taiwan, because the CPC leadership has always priced in direct US (& now possibly Japanese) intervention in any decision to invade (something US officials & think tankers have consistently heard from their Chinese interlocutors for decades, & what the PLA is clearly trained & equipped for).
However, the US effectively abandoning Ukraine due to collapse in material aid would greatly damage the US’ credibility in the eyes of its Asian (one might even say Indo-Pacific) allies & partners, & they would question the US’ staying power if it cannot sustain an effort at only moderate cost to itself, & no cost in American blood. They will likely pursue a combination of banding together to count balance the PRC, develop nuclear deterrent, reach accommodations w/ the PRC, & generally defer far less to the US’ preferences & interests.
The US’ credibility in the Indo-Pacific (uhh I hate the term) is on the line because the US has prominently & vocally placed its overall credibility on the line in Ukraine.
YY_Sima Qian
@Nukular Biskits: Aren’t there already many commercially available device that force commercial drones to RTB or crash?
Gin & Tonic
” Russia has been deliberately killing Ukrainian intelligentsia from the 17th century and now on…”
Yarko brings the truth.
Dagaetch
I agree that Austin isn’t resigning or getting canned right now. But if I was Biden, I would now be planning to look for a new SecDef after I win reelection. Not telling the president that you’re going in for surgery and may not be available to do your job, is kind of a big no no.
Another Scott
@Dagaetch: 4 years is a fairly long run for SecDef.
It’s one of those hugely consequential jobs if one wants to do it well, and takes a lot out of a body.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Jazz Bass:
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/legal-challenges-presented-seizing-frozen-russian-assets
and that is just in the US.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: If you have a moment, could you say what’s written on the artwork this unbelievably tenacious solder is holding up?
(Nitter link)
ETA:
Another Scott
@Lyrebird:
Google finds the text is Ukrainian and says:
“God bless you and your life”
I wonder how close it is?
Cheers,
Scott.
Villago Delenda Est
I don’t know what the living fuck Austin was thinking. Back in his Army days, he would have been incensed if one of his subordinate commanders pulled this shit.
Lyrebird
Thanks @Another Scott:!
Of course I hope ALL of them make it through, but for tonight I am going to pray double for him to make it through. Above all for him to get to know his family is around him.
Dusty in here again!!!
Another Scott
@Villago Delenda Est:
There’s a tiny bit more about his status today – Defense.gov – he’s still at Walter-Reed, working there (working since Friday evening).
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: It’s a variation on a fairly popular patriotic/nationalistic saying. The original is roughly: Your soul – to God; your life – to Ukraine; your honor – to yourself. It works because each half of each one can be one word. The drawing you link is captioned: Your soul – to God; your life – to you (yourself). Another Scott’s Google translation shows the weakness of machine translation that lacks cultural context.
You can get the original on a coffee cup.
Another Scott
@Another Scott:
APNews.com:
This handoff fumbling excuse makes sense to me (as opposed to it being some attempt to hide anything).
As I said in an earlier thread, this time of year has lots of people using up their accumulated leave for the year (2023 had an extra pay period so the leave year doesn’t end until Saturday January 13). If someone gets sick, and the next person is on leave, then it’s not unreasonable to expect that there can and will be delays.
I expect that procedures will be clarified going forward.
I’m ass-u-ming that that’s all there is to this. But we’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
It seems to me this is not so much a Lloyd Austin problem as a system problem. When I had responsibilities for a 24/7 production line at an aerospace manufacturing plant, I had a pager that I wore 24/7, and kept on my bedside table when sleeping. I wore it on weekends off (not too many of these), holidays, and vacation. And I was a lowly reliability engineer. For someone as important as the SecDef, the continuous check to monitor availability should be much more stringent.
Apparently SecDef Austin was expecting a minor medical procedure which he didn’t think was a big deal, so he didn’t report it- and then it went south, and he was unconscious and unable to report. This problem isn’t limited to “minor” medical procedures- any of us could have an accident, stroke, heart attack, assassination attempt etc. at any time. I’m actually surprised that this risk has not been addressed on a system wide basis. And not just for the SecDef- for POTUS, VPOTUS, Sec State, National Security Advisor, Attorney General- probably all the cabinet. And, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Probably a lot of high level military people too.
This carries me back to when President Reagan was shot, and Alexander Haig outrageously claimed that he was in charge (of course, VP George HW Bush was in charge under the 25th Amendment). Our country- any country- cannot afford to have confusion about lines of authority in an emergency.
Jazz Bass
@Jay: Thanks for the link!
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Gin & Tonic: One of the reasons I couldn’t finish Red Famine the excellent book on the Holodomor by Anne Applebaum is the sheer amount of death.
Going to take another crack at it the next time my local library has it available. There’s quite the wait list.😌
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you G&T!!!
I appreciate the context. Language geek in me didn’t think I’d seen the “bless” cognate, but I only know a little of another uh neighboring language. We don’t know if he made the art or has particularly talented young relatives or friends who made him those to cheer him on. Given his health situation, I wish him lots of cheering.
…and on a mens, womens, or kids tshirt, apparently!
Timill
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: $8.99 + tax on Kindle, if you can use that?
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Carlo Graziani
@Another Scott:
No. “Nothing to see here” cannot be how this story ends.
The Federal government invests an eye-watering amount of resources and effort in continuity, for the specific purpose of ensuring that there is never a chain-of-command hiccup no matter how remotely far-fetched the circumstances. This is 100% the correct approach to managing an apparatus that can potentially kill hundreds of millions of people and catastrophically degrade the planet’s habitability in a matter of hours.
The fact that this continuity was interrupted is a major scandal, full stop. Even if conceding this fact yields political ammunition to the craven opposition, no principled alternative exists. Austin must resign, immediately, if only for the sake of affirming the seriousness with which the US government regards its responsibilities to its own public and to the world.
What happens to him after his resignation is a hostage to our pathological politics, as Adam points out. But his resignation is a rock-hard moral necessity. If Austin himself doesn’t understand his duty in this matter, then he is not the officer that I have come to believe him to be.
Alex
@Another Scott: @lyrebird
It says “Soul – God’s. But life – yours.” as in “My soul belongs to god, but my life belongs to you [Ukraine].”
YY_Sima Qian
Article in the FT on the EW contest between Russia & Ukraine, specifically to suppress the ubiquitous drones on the battlefield. Russia was always assumed by Western analysts to have had fearsome battlefield EW capabilities before the current invasion, but which did not seem to have made a significant impact from the outset, through 2022 or large parts of 2023. Perhaps it is more effective than realized. Another reminder that the video footages we see from the Ukrainian battlefield, mostly posted by accounts sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause, do not represent the full picture.
YY_Sima Qian
Sam Cranny-Evans at RUSI has a Twitter thread on possibly the latest development of Russia drones/loitering munitions using AI to improve accuracy & defeat EW countermeasures, click through the link to see the Telegram claim referenced:
“AI” here is really just real time image recognition & tracking, a capability that has been available on DJI’s consumer drones for quite a few years already, & now developed to be quite capable. Unfortunately, not a surprise to see its use expanded to warfare. The countries w/ the initial advantage in this brave new world will be the 1st movers (Ukraine & Russia, possibly Israel), & the countries w/ the broadest, deepest, & cheapest consumer electronics ecosystems/supply chains/human resources (the PRC, South Korea, the US & Taiwan).
SteverinoCT
I think this was overblown. When I was in the Navy, the senior man upon arriving at a casualty would announce, “This is Petty Officer SteverinoCT, and I am in charge.” This was to establish control for organizing the response to the immediate casualty. It did not mean “I am taking command of the ship.”
What Haig was doing, IMO, was saying he was immediately responsible in the room, so that there was no confusion. “Come to me and we will organize a response.”
Another Scott
@SteverinoCT: +1
He could have used a different word or two, but it’s clear that he wasn’t saying he was President or something.
Cheers,
Scott.