Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

No one could have predicted…

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

The words do not have to be perfect.

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

Republicans in disarray!

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Usually wrong but never in doubt

Not all heroes wear capes.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 684: (Some of) You Have Questions I (May) Have Answers

War for Ukraine Day 684: (Some of) You Have Questions I (May) Have Answers

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Russia once again opened up on Ukrainian civilian targets overnight:

Ukraine continues to resist russian missile terror.

This morning, 🇺🇦 air defenders shot down 18 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles and 8 “Shahed” kamikaze drones in our sky.

The aggressor attacked our country with 59 drones and missiles, including Kh-47 Kindzhal missiles and Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

We are grateful to our air defenders for saving Ukrainian cities.
We urge our partners to continue supporting Ukrainian air defense.

Last night in comments Jazz Bass asked:

Hi Adam, yesterday you mentioned that it seems unlikely that the $300 billion in Russian assets are going to be used to support Ukraine. When you have chance could you, please, elaborate why that’s the case?

Thanks!

There are several reasons why. The first is that no one is sure if this is legal under anyone’s laws, whether that’s American, Canadian, EU, any of the individual EU member states, and/or international law. The second is that there is a lot of concern, especially in the US, but also in the EU, that if the US or the EU were to go forward with this it would make both individual, organizational/corporate, and state investors leery of holding dollars or euros as investments, keeping said dollars or euros in US, EU, and/or individual EU member state banks, and owning tangible assets in the US, the EU, and/or individual EU member states.

I understand why President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainians want this done. I don’t necessarily think it is a bad idea, but given how risk averse the Biden administration, the Scholz government in Germany, Macron in France, and a number of other leaders of EU and/or NATO member states have been, I don’t see it happening.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Terrorist must pay the most for the damage caused by terror, and Russia will pay – address by the President of Ukraine

8 January 2024 – 19:47

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report on this day.

Three international conversations today. First, the Amir of Kuwait. I thanked him for supporting the independence and territorial integrity of our country. I spoke about the situation in the wake of Russian terror – constant missile and drone attacks on our cities and villages. I assured him that despite everything, Ukraine will remain one of the donors of global food security and stability in general. We consistently maintain international law and appreciate all the efforts of our partners who help us and thus contribute to their own security.

Today I also spoke with the King of Bahrain. Of course, considerable attention was paid to the protection of the basic principles of international relations and to the issues of stability. I thanked him for the participation of the Bahraini representative in previous Peace Formula meetings and invited to take part in the new meeting that will take place in Davos shortly.

This evening I also spoke with the Amir of Qatar, and the issue of the release of our captives was particularly important to me. Qatar’s mediation and leadership has already proven to be effective, and I am grateful for their willingness to continue to cooperate to bring home more Ukrainians, adults and children, from Russian captivity. Of course, we also discussed the work on the Peace Formula and the organization of the upcoming Peace Summit with the participation of the world majority. I thanked Qatar for supporting our humanitarian initiative “Grain from Ukraine” and our efforts to safeguard peaceful navigation in the Black Sea in general. The fact that we have resumed the navigation of civilian vessels in the Black Sea – despite all Russia’s attempts to block this water area – proves that we can defend ourselves against all other manifestations of Russian aggression against our country, against the normal life of all countries that value life and people.

Today, I held a meeting on our further international agenda – this month will be eventful in terms of our foreign policy. Many steps will be taken, and I am confident that we will be able to strengthen our state. Our air defense system. Our work with partners on drones. As well as on sanctions against Russia, those that have already been imposed… It is vital to eliminate any possible schemes to circumvent sanctions. We are also working on new sanctions: the architecture of pressure on Russia must be strengthened. And another priority is to expedite practical decisions for the use of Russian assets in the interests of Ukraine and their subsequent confiscation to restore justice. The terrorist must pay the most for the damage caused by terror, and Russia will pay.

Emergency and rescue operations are still ongoing in three regions of Ukraine after the Russian army’s strikes: Donetsk, Kherson and Khmelnytskyi regions. I am grateful to all the rescuers, police officers, and utility workers who are involved.

This morning, unfortunately, began with a massive missile attack once again. Kharkiv and the region, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, Khmelnytskyi region. 45 people were injured, and as of this time, four people have been reported dead. My condolences to the families and friends! The terrorist state will definitely feel our response.

I thank everyone in the world who helps Ukraine! I thank everyone in Ukraine who cares about their fellow countrymen and our entire country! Glory to our warriors!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost, continued from last night:

I do not know what to say. I do not know.

Max carried so much light and warmth. Always twisted the soul with his texts. I dreamed of a collection, published it, did not have time to present it properly. Loved red cats and red poppy candy.

“Smiled more often
than said
died…”

Sleep tight, my friend. Sleep tight…

I blame myself because I didn’t fulfill what I promised him a few days ago. I kept putting it off, thinking I would have time. But I didn’t…

Some of you may have been wondering what Major General Budanov’s merry band of mayhem makers at Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence have been up to. Well wonder no more: Interfax Ukraine has your answers:

The Main Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine received 100 GB of secret data from the Russian enterprise Special Technology Center (STC) with a total value of $1.5 billion.

“The specified Russian enterprise has been under sanctions since 2016. Its facilities produce military equipment and equipment used by the Russian army in the war against Ukraine. In particular, STC produces Orlan UAVs of various modifications, a whole range of electronic warfare and reconnaissance equipment, and other military products,” the press service of the Main Intelligence Agency states in a statement.

The array of information transferred to the Main Intelligence Agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine contains documentation for 194 nomenclature units: drawings, technical specifications, patents, software, etc. – we are talking about both existing and promising military developments. According to preliminary estimates, the value of the data obtained could be $1.5 billion.

“This is a significant blow to terrorist Moscow: this archive is already being used to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capability and weaken the aggressor state,” the agency emphasizes.

It is noted that it was possible to obtain classified information from one of the critically important enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex thanks to effective interaction with patriotic representatives of civil society and the media community.

Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Today, the Russians made another attempt to attack Krynky, Kherson region. (various sources claim that a total of 5 Russian tanks and several BTRs were destroyed/damaged) The video shows the detonation of one of the attacking Russian tanks.
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/18533

P.S: For some reason, lately I often see comments that my videos are not loading for some users. For some reason X/Twitter doesn’t show them. While I’m trying to figure out the reasons, write if you see this video and if it works properly.

/2. Test of the same video in the same format but uploaded from the different account. Is it available for viewing for those who had problems viewing it before?
I’m trying to understand whether the problem is in the video format, the device from which the video is downloaded, or the fact that X/Twitter blocks viewing videos uploaded by my profile

The video blocking is not just happening to her account, I’ve seen it on other accounts posting pro-Ukrainian material. Your guess is as good as mine as to whether this is just more of what’s left of Twitter’s legacy code failing every time the Starlink Snowflake has something new added or tweaked or if he’s got his nose out of joint about Ukraine again. Or both.

Zaporizhzhia front:

 

 

For you drone enthusiasts:

The Ukrainian assault on Belgorod, Russia continues:

And the Russian assault on Volgograd Oblast, Russia also continues:

We have new news about Rudy Giuliani’s buddy Andrei Derkach.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

❤️❤️❤️

♬ original sound – zuzik ⸆⸉

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

41Comments

  1. 1.

    Chetan Murthy

    there is a lot of concern, especially in the US, but also in the EU, that if the US or the EU were to go forward with this it would make both individual, organizational/corporate, and state investors leery of holding dollars or euros as investments, keeping said dollars or euros in US, EU, and/or individual EU member state banks, and owning tangible assets in the US, the EU, and/or individual EU member states.

    [Adam, thank you for this: and I don’t mean my below text to to be directed at you, obviously.]

    I’m sure that this is one of their paramount concerns.  It’s like Western governments’ concern for the stability of the Middle Eastern oil kingdoms (and all their oil).  But …. as wiser heads have pointed out, even if KSA gets deposed and replaced, the replacement government is gonna have to sell their oil to *eat*: and that’s true in every one of those oil kingdoms.  Whoever replaces the current rulers, is gonna need to sell oil to us. Period.

    And in the same way, the people who would be leery of putting their money in Western banks …. gosh, where the hell else are they gonna put it?  China?  B/c if they *could*, don’t you think they *would* already?

    Sigh.

  3. 3.

    Jay

    Thank you Adam, and specially for the heads up on the Vatnik slime lies coming down the pipe from the Orc’s.

  4. 4.

    ColoradoGuy

    It’s enraging to think the Western democracies have to follow the letter of the law while Russia breaks every treaty it has signed … and has done so for centuries. It’s something the modern GOP has in common … laws are for the little people, not the Masters of the Universe.

  5. 5.

    Alison Rose

    Your guess is as good as mine as to whether this is just more of what’s left of Twitter’s legacy code failing every time the Starlink Snowflake has something new added or tweaked or if he’s got his nose out of joint about Ukraine again. Or both.

    When it comes to Muskrat, the answer to “stupid or evil” is always чому не обидва? (If Google Translate got that even close to correct.)

    The best kind of doggie bag.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: It is not a binary issue. The risk is not that the ROW completely pivots away from USD & the Euro to the Chinese Yuan or something else. That will not happen for the foreseeable future, & the Chinese Yuan (for example) is not freely convertible, so the likes of KSA cannot put all of their reserves into the Yuan even if they wanted to. The risk is that the ROW will reduce the USD/Euro allocation of their reserve holdings & assets, or reduce their transactions in USD/Euro. For example, the KSA can sell their oil exports to the PRC in Yuans, & use those Yuans to purchase Chinese solar farms, wind farms, nuclear power plants, 5G networks, data centers, high speed rail lines, green hydrogen/methane plants, EVs, & weapons, & avoid the USD or the Euro as financial intermediaries. Qatar can do the same w/ natural gas. the Gulf States can even choose to price their oils & natural gas in Chinese Yuan for all customers, as opposed to the USD. Russia is already doing this w/ its energy & agricultural exports to the PRC.

    This will likely cause USD & Euro depreciate, which is not a bad thing for the industrial competitiveness of the US & the Eurozone, or for the highly indebted Global South countries that have most of their external loans denominated in USD/Euros. However, the US & the Eurozone will likely have to raise interest rates to entice prospective buyers of their debt to return, increase the financing costs of their budget & trade deficits (which are not changing any time soon), increase inflation (since the strong need for imports are not going away), suppress needed investment into capacity for industries of the future & renew physical infrastructure, not to mention increased interest payment crowding out needed domestic spending (social welfare & military).

    Finally, the changing of the guard in global reserve currencies tends to happen very slowly, & then very suddenly.

  7. 7.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT, Jake Tapper shared this shocking comment from an unnamed Biden Administration official, a disgusting appearance by Smotrich on Israeli TV thought the YT link in the Tweet:

    A Biden administration official said to me “at some point, Netanyahu is going to have to choose between governing in a way that pleases Ben Gvir and Smotrich, and governing in a way that pleases President Biden and the US.” Unless he’s already chosen. http://tinyurl.com/2s448vx5

    & a response by Barak Ravid:

    He made this choice a year ago

    Leaving aside that the specific phrasing is guaranteed to piss off more than just the far right in Israel, & gives Bibi a free shot to humiliate Biden to shore up his domestic weakness, can the Biden Administration really be that naive? Is Biden’s view of Israel really stuck in 1973, as recent reporting is claiming?

  9. 9.

    Bill Arnold

    Here’s a threadreader unroll of that Wendy Siegelman@WendySiegelman thread with an early warning of an incoming Andrii Derkach op.
    Thanks for all the embeds!
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1743673320619315676.html

    Musk’s pro-Russian-influence-ops Twitter/X will be used (among other means) to spread it; another reason to work towards its destruction, and also, for those still using the service, to be ready with Twitter/X Community Notes.

  10. 10.

    Carlo Graziani

    It seems as if recent Russian air raids have been getting better penetration of Ukrainian air defense. At the same time, they do not (yet) appear to be focusing on power infrastructure, as they did last year.

    A possible explanation is that temperatures are not consistently freezing yet, and in the meantime, the Russians can use general attacks against civilian targets to draw AD assets away from electrical infrastructure, while experimenting with raid weapon mixes and timings to achieve better penetration.

    I expect the Ukrainians to adapt, and continue adapting, to these tactics.

  12. 12.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: 

    Finally, the changing of the guard in global reserve currencies tends to happen very slowly, & then very suddenly.

    There aren’t a lot of historical examples of such changes. The principal—perhaps unique—case is the fall from grace of the pound sterling after 1945, in consequence of Britain’s debilitation by the war and of the US’s accession to global superpower status. If that is the sort of world event that heralds a change in reserve currency, I don’t think that anyone need worry about changing their stacks of Ben Franklins into something safer any time soon.

    The risks that you point out aren’t wrong, but they lean quite heavily on the speculative side. They require both governments and millions of firms to weigh political risk very heavily in their trading account management, and to accept potential losses due to trading in limited-horizon currencies for the uncertain benefit of shielding themselves from speculative political risk. Honestly, it all seems rather far-fetched to me.

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    Sebastian, if you’re reading tonight, I think you’ve misread Evacide on BlueSky. She runs the information security portfolio for the Electronic Frontier Foundation and is doing righteous work. I sincerely think you’ve gotten yourself wrong footed on this one.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Read on Twitter last night (that I now can’t find again) that Russia is focusing on Ukraine’s defense industrial complex in this winter’s campaign, in addition to the usual terror strikes. I recall that Ukrainian AD only shot down 18 of 31 cruise/ballistic missiles, although intercepted all 8 Shahed drones. The Russian AF also launched 2 anti-radian missiles targeting Ukrainian AD radars. Apparently Russian strikes yesterday were concentrated in areas where AD is thin. I hope this is not a sign that Ukraine is running short of the modern Western SAM missiles that are most effective against Russian cruise/ballistic missiles, & that Ukraine now has to prioritize areas to defend.

    If Russia has not continued to terrorize the Ukrainian civilian population w/ missile attacks, not to mention its entire enterprise an act of naked aggression, I would even consider the most recent missile volley campaign rational expenditure of resources. Degrade Ukrainian MIC at a time when material aid from the West is slowing dramatically, will likely have an impact come Spring.

  20. 20.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: One option that seems workable to me, but which I have not seen a legal evaluation of, would be for Western governments to forgo seizure of frozen Russian sovereign assets, but rather to transfer control of those assets to the Ukrainian government, who would then be responsible and accountable for the seizure decision.

    I know that this would be a mere fig leaf, and that the life expectancy of Russian ownership of those assets would be measured in microseconds after the transfer of control occurred. But it seems to me that there are several advantages to this procedure. One is that it would take years for the various court jurisdictions to sort out the consequences, whereas the fait would be, as they say, accomplit long before, and in time to bring aid to the Ukrainian war effort. Another would be that the circumstance would be so strange and sui generis that it would be hard to cast it as a generalized risk for dollar- (or Euro)-denominated assets not otherwise owned by a state carrying out unprovoked aggression against another major state capable of asserting control over those assets.

    And, of course, it would provide a lovely “fuck you” opportunity for the world to relish, as the Ukrainians went on happy weapons shopping sprees subsidized by Russia, largely to the profit of Western firms. That would be extremely satisfying and entertaining, and worth tuning in to Russian TV for.

  22. 22.

    Gin & Tonic

    Simona Mangiante Papadapoulos is an interesting case. Supposedly Italian, she (reportedly) speaks Italian well, but speaks English with an obvious, pronounced Russian accent, yet insists on a Russian interpreter when dealing in public with Russians (wonder hw she talks privately with Derkach.) Married to George Papadapoulos, who called himself a “foreign-policy adviser” to the Trump campaign. Some speculate she’s the daughter of Russian “illegals” based in Italy. More questions than answers with her.

  24. 24.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: EU countries have also seized/nationalized local subsidiaries of Russian state owned firms shortly after the invasion. Sovereign reserves are different, & is thought to be conferred sovereign immunity. Although there has also been exceptions in the past, they have not been targeted great powers.

  26. 26.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani:

    If we are still in 2015, & the debacle of the GWB terms seen by the world as an aberration, I might agree. However, we are now in 2024, & I think you are discounting the prospect of what Trump or another GOPer in the WH might do w/ such precedents. I guarantee every country not named the US, including its allies & partners, are keenly aware of that possibility.

  27. 27.

    Carlo Graziani

    @planetjanet: Thanks.

    That title, “T’ho aspettata da una vita” is ungrammatical, since “Ti ho” (“I have”) is not properly contracted to “T’ho”. In any event, it wasn’t clear to me how to access a clip of Mangiante actually speaking from that IMDB entry.

  28. 28.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Twitter thread by Timofiy Mylovanov (former Ukrainian Minister of Economy) on the challenges of additional mobilization(s) in Ukraine:

    Ukraine society has become polarized by mobilization. Almost no one is covering this in English speaking social media, but that’s topic # 1 in Ukraine. The implication are huge: Ukrainians will either unify even more or there will be polarization This is what’s happening 1/

    The army has asked for 400-500K new recruits. The reason – many people mobilized in the beginning of the invasion have been serving non-stop, but they need a break, at least a rotation. 2/

    There are also losses – killed and wounded, but they are much smaller than those of the Russian military and also the numbers generally believed by the public 3/

    President Zelensky, has made this number public in a press conference in the late December. 4/

    In addition to the press conferences by Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, Ukrainian media published one idea how a draft can go and that caused a social media storm 5/

    The idea is attributed to the government, but no one admitted on record. It is that the government will mobilize whoever is needed for the army, but companies and people who provide high value and pay taxes might be fast tracked to be exempt 6/

    The idea is to balance off the needs of the army, the economy, and the government budget that has to finance the army. So, in the jargon of the economist, the problem is the allocation of the labor force between the army and the civil economy 7/

    There is also an additional objective – provide incentive for people and companies to pay taxes and minimize evasion. So, those who pay taxes are less likely, other things being equal, to be mobilized. 8/

    This policy proposal offended many people. They say it is equivalent to discrimination of the poor – those who are rich won’t serve, those who are poor will. 9/

    The alternative – a lottery draft that gives everyone an equal chance – has also not been received well in the discussion. People say it is too arbitrary 10/

    The third alternative – an increase in salaries in the army so that there are volunteers – is liked by many. It keeps freedom of choice and solves the problem. Its cost however appears to be prohibitive for Ukraine at the moment given that the economy is hurt already 11/

    This discussion also attracted attention to two related topics: the efficiency of allocation people recruited into the military to specific positions. Many people think there are many areas for improvement 12/

    The second topic is that of whether a proportion of politicians, government officials, and others very visible people should also be forcefully mobilized and whether their rate of mobilization should be at least as high as that of the general population 13/

    Some economists have calculated how many years more people could be mobilized until the economy collapses irreversibly. There are still ways to go. Several waves of mobilization of this degree are possible. Ukraine can double or triple its military but can’t increase it 10X 14/

    But now of this works if Ukrainian economy is not in decent shape. So, the Western financial support remains a critical element of the survival and defense of Ukraine. And at the moment there are questions how solid this support is. 15X

    @Gin & Tonic: What is your take of Mylovanov’s comments?

  29. 29.

    Gin & Tonic

    @planetjanet: Biographically, yes, that’s her. I’m looking for links to her speaking Italian but no luck yet

    ETA: But hey, I had forgotten about her connection to Joseph Mifsud.

  32. 32.

    Gin & Tonic

    @YY_Sima Qian: Mylovanov is a smart guy in general. Is it topic #1? I’m not there, so can’t say for sure, and I’m probably not an objective judge anyway, since all of my family, friends and acquaintances are, if not on active duty or in the TDF, active supporters of same.

  34. 34.

    Gin & Tonic

    Incidentally, that machine translation of the three-line poem by Maks Kryvtsov isn’t optimal. I’d write it as

    “Smiled more often

    than spoke

    was killed…”

    Ukrainian has different words for “died (due to illness or age)” vs “died (due to violence/trauma)” – as it has different words for “died” depending on whether the subject was a person or an animal.

  36. 36.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: Translation of art is definitely an art.

    Thank you for helping the rest of us see Kryvstov’s art more clearly.

    Heartbreak upon heartbreak.

  37. 37.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: Thanks for the response! I am surprised that Ukraine has not implemented conscription, yet.

    Wish your families, friends & acquaintances the best of luck.

  38. 38.

    YY_Sima Qian

    A legal analysis of South Africa’s genocide case filed at the ICJ against Israel.

    The Promise and Risk of South Africa’s Case Against Israel
    by Alaa Hachem and Oona A. Hathaway
    January 4, 2024

    I think it is notable that Jordan, Türkiye & Malaysia have endorsed South Africa’s case.

    Of course, there is hypocrisy all around. South Africa has been decidedly un exercised by Russian war crimes & crimes against humanity in Ukraine, & indeed considered hosting Putin last year for the BRICS summit despite being State Party to the Rome Statute. NSC Spokesman John Kirby had immediately dismissed the South Africa case as “meritless”, which was not well received around the world.

  40. 40.

    Origuy

    @Carlo Graziani: It’s ungrammatical in standard Italian, but the director is Neapolitan. From what I’ve been able to find, Neapolitan does contractions (is that what they’re called in Italian?) differently. I couldn’t find T’ho specifically.

    I’m certainly no expert, with just 2 years studying Italian.

  41. 41.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Origuy: The trouble is that while that contraction exists in spoken dialect, there exists no such thing as a Neapolitan dialect standard written grammar. It’s spoken, and occasionally transliterated for fictional dialogue, but it has no formal grammar. So putting “T’ho” instead of “Ti ho” in a movie title is weird-looking and off-putting. It is definitely not the same as the standard article contraction (e.g. “l’albero” for what would otherwise be “lo albero” (“the tree”)).

    That IMDB entry has many hallmarks of being a low-budget production by a small group of ignorant, provincial hicks. The opposite of what one might think of as “Italian Cinema” (Neapolitan exemplars of which abound).

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