Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Consistently wrong since 2002

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

The frogs are rarely mistaken.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

I was promised a recession.

Not all heroes wear capes.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” is supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 687: Slow News Day Update

War for Ukraine Day 687: Slow News Day Update

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Slow news day, huh?

I want to make a quick point about something that has nothing to do with Ukraine. I know by now everyone has seen the video of Bibi’s statement from last night in English regarding Israeli objectives in Gaza. The statement isn’t worth the breath he used to make it. Bibi has for decades said one thing in English when pressured by the US or attempting to get ahead of a US response. He does it very publicly and everyone in the US pats themselves on their backs. Then the next day or a few days later he gives a statement in Hebrew. It isn’t widely promoted by Bibi, his trusted aides, surrogates, supporters, and friendly to him Israeli media. It always contradicts the English statement and the reason for that is the statement in Hebrew is the real statement. The statement in English is bullshit. It can and should always be ignored. Bibi does this because he thinks American journalists, politicians, and Americans in general are stupid. And every time he does this his belief in American stupidity is almost always rewarded. Here’s the real statement in Hebrew:

The historic irony here is this was Yasser Arafat’s communications strategy for decades. He’d say whatever he though the US wanted to hear in English and then make the real statement in Arabic knowing that no one in the US news media would cover the latter, largely because they had no idea what he was saying in Arabic.

There is nothing new under the sun.

Now on to Ukraine.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. It was to a special session of the Riigikogu, the unicameral legislative assembly of Estonia. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We must win this battle, as it determines the global attitude toward freedom – speech by the President of Ukraine at a special plenary session of the Riigikogu

11 January 2024 – 15:43

Mr. Speaker!

Ladies and gentlemen, members of the Parliament! 

Mr. President! 

Madam Prime Minister! 

Members of the Government!

Thank you for the cordial reception and for your unwavering attention to Ukraine.

Dear ladies and gentlemen!

Dear Estonian people!

I am pleased to have the opportunity to thank you personally today for being on the side of freedom. And not just on the side of Ukraine’s freedom.

t is very symbolic, from the perspective of both Estonian and Ukrainian history, how the day of February 24 is now filled with meanings. It is on this day that Estonia celebrates and will always celebrate the restoration of its state independence. And it was on February 24 that the current rulers of Russia attempted to restore their old empire, whether Soviet or Russian, or some hybrid empire. Attempted – by attacking Ukraine. We did not falter on February 24. All of us. Our people. Our friends. The entire free world.

Ukraine decided then that we would fight. Kaitsetahe. The free nations of the world backed us up. Some did it immediately, like Estonia, and I am grateful to you for that, others joined in later, and we appreciate that too. Now, the majority of the world is one way or another on the side of Ukraine, international law, and against Russian genocidal aggression.

February 24 could have changed the history of our Ukrainian nation, our region, and our entire Europe into a new enslavement. But history took a turn toward far greater freedom than we all had, toward far greater independence than we could have expected at the time, toward far greater European strength than anyone could have predicted. It happened due to courage. Due to solidarity. Due to the choice in favor of freedom – our common choice.

And I thank you, Estonia, I thank every single one of you personally for making that choice. The choice in favor of freedom.

We must win the battle that is now underway. We must win it not only because it is a battle for our lives – the lives of the Ukrainian people, our cities, our communities, which Russia is turning into ruins. We must win this battle not only because it decides the fate of our state and all the countries and nations that have to border Russia. This battle determines the global attitude toward freedom now, after us, and after our children and grandchildren.

Freedom must be able to prevail in confrontations unleashed by tyranny. That is why this war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine matters not only for us and not only for our continent, but for all nations that value their freedom or dream of becoming free. Tyranny must lose. Tyranny must be the loser. Always. Always. This is what we must leave as our main political legacy – we, all the states that value independence, all the nations that do not want their children to be the property of dictators, all the leaders who want to be on the bright side of history. And that is why everyone is important in this battle. Not only those with extensive military experience or large arsenals. Not only those who are among the world’s top leaders in terms of various indicators of their power. Every nation is important. Every brave soul, every sincere heart, every bright mind is important. Everyone who can mobilize their humanity. Not because it yields immediate benefits, but because it’s the right thing to do. It is right when freedom and humanity prevail. They must prevail!

Ladies and gentlemen! 

Dear Estonia!

I thank you all for standing with us. Thank you for each package of support for our warriors and all Ukrainian people. Thank you for the weapons you have provided. Thank you for your initiatives that really influence the overall European course. Thank you for your determination in putting pressure on Russia – and in making the aggressor really feel that it is he who will suffer the most from the aggression – this criminal, this murderer, this terrorist, and not those whose lives Putin has decided to destroy. We must continue to put pressure on him. Everyone in Europe. Everyone in the free world. Every sanctions circumvention scheme that Russia uses must be blocked. Every asset that Moscow or those associated with it have tried to conceal in global jurisdictions must be frozen and used to defend against Russian aggression and help rebuild after this war.

Every defense enterprise that is currently in place or that can be established in Europe to help Europe defend its freedom must operate at full capacity. This is a common, vital interest of every European nation. Europe needs its own defense capabilities for its security. Guaranteed security. Ukraine has already reached dozens of agreements with various countries and companies on joint defense production – I invite you to join this cooperation. Estonia has already made significant progress in the development of digital technologies and advanced systems of governance and corporate work – we must share this experience with others in Europe and the world. And we must always keep in mind and always uphold the fundamental European truth – Europe will only endure if it is a continent of unity. Unity, not strife. Unity, not national egoism. Unity, not clashing ambitions. Over these two years, we have all demonstrated the highest level of unity. And I am grateful to you for the way you defend this unity. The way you defend common interests. And the way you help our European and Euro-Atlantic integration in particular. And the way you help our people, Ukrainians – this is also a manifestation of unity, a manifestation of true Europeanness –  our people who sought refuge from the war and found it in Estonia. I am grateful to you for this warmth, for your solidarity with us and, of course, for choosing independence on February 24. Thank you.

When I was on my way to your parliament today, Madam Prime Minister presented me with this sweatshirt. She said that the meaning of this word – kaitsetahe – united you all, many Estonians. And what is written here is what is engraved in the hearts of many Ukrainians – the will to defend. Kaitsetahe. And I’m sure that the day will come when we will all be united by another meaning – võidutahe – the will to win.

And we will congratulate each other on the victory. On winning this war against Russia. Together. Always together.

Glory to Ukraine!

The Estonians get it!

The cost:

Machine translation of the tweet above:

Pain🥺

Recently, in my hometown of Konotop, this boy asked for a drone for his father, not the barnacles that the authorities were installing en masse along with the pavement.

The authorities did not listen and the boy met his father “ON THE SHIELD”. Today his father was buried…..

You may be asking how those sanctions on Russia are working.

The Financial Times has the details:

Russia obtained at least one-third of its foreign-sourced critical battlefield components from companies based in the US and its allies last year — in large part because of outsourced production facilities in states that apply weaker export controls.

These goods — worth a total of $7.3bn — were mainly manufactured in countries that are not part of the US-led export-control coalition, according to an analysis by the Kyiv School of Economics. The largest share of these goods — worth around $1.9bn — were produced in China.

The 485 types of component in the analysis include semiconductors, computer parts, electronics, automotive components and bearings. The list relies on analysis of components found by Ukrainian officials in Russian equipment on the battlefield.

The analysis accounts for $22bn of Russian imports over the first nine months of 2023 and highlights how outsourced production can make it easier for Russia to buy controlled goods from countries whose customs officers will not apply checks at the border.

The data also shows the critical role of China in Russia’s supply networks, including goods made by non-coalition companies. A majority of the goods on the list were made in the country, which has been joining an ever-deepening partnership with Moscow.

Olena Bilousova, a senior researcher at KSE, said: “It’s been a normal business strategy for years for western technology companies to have manufacturing facilities across Asia. But these factories need to be made to comply with the same strength of export controls as they would at home.”

The US is the only country to insist that goods made in a third country may potentially be covered by domestic controls. The “foreign-direct product regulations” (FDPR) are extraterritorial and can cover goods made in third countries if content, software or technology originating in the US has been involved in their production.

FDPR provisions apply even if the producer is not American. The US dominance of semiconductor technology means the FDPR has particular impact on this sector.

However, Emily Kilcrease, a sanctions expert at the Centre for a New American Security, said that applying the FDPR is difficult. It “is necessarily one of the tougher mechanisms to use just because the activity is, by definition, not happening at home. China is one of our more difficult enforcement environments”.

Data reviewed by the Financial Times shows the goods were sold to Russia via distributors and intermediaries. Kevin Wolf, a partner at Akin law firm in Washington and a former assistant commerce secretary, said that if the US companies had no knowledge of the eventual export to Russia and did not cause it, they would not contravene American law.

But the US adding “distributors and other middlemen” to its sanctions list would be “a very effective way of addressing diversion of semiconductors and other items”, he said. “This would prohibit shipments to the listed entities by any company — even if the whole transaction happens outside the US.”

Much more at the link!

Remember, just 8 more shopping days till the first part of the government shutdown!

Bucha:

Kupyansk & Bakhmut:

Kharkiv:

Russia:

In Russia, entire city districts throughout the country, even in Moscow and the capital region, suffer from prolonged and severe power & heating breakdowns.

And that’s in the dead of the Russian winter. Hundreds of thousands are affected. All due to a severe lack of proper maintenance and financing (and systemic corruption, of course).

We in Ukraine did not have things like that at such a scale, even last winter, when Russia was spending hundreds of missiles and drones to wipe out our heating and power infrastructure and freeze Ukraine to death.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin is to spend at least $112 billion (30% of the 2024 annual budget) on its war to exterminate Ukraine, Putin is obsessed with his idiotic crusade against homosexuality, and tens of thousands of ordinary Russians go to slaughter for ruins of a Ukrainian city they would never find on a map.

Their greatest arch-enemy is somehow Ukrainians who only want to be left alone and to survive as a nation.

Just think about this.

Russia is so sick to the bone, good lord.

Winter 2022-23 – Russia bombs Ukraine into oblivion to plunge it into cold and dark, Europe is to freeze to death without Russian gas.

Winter 2023-24 – Russia itself ends up suffering from widespread power and heating failures amid severe freeze without any military attacks on its critical infrastructure.

Gods indeed have the sense of dark humor.

There seems to be some positive movement on the frozen Russian assets front:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

З вас 1 гривня за перегляд цього відео🤨 Та жартую!🤭 Просто вирішив показати вам, як я смішно бігаю в цій куртці :)) #песпатрон

♬ eyes without a face – 🍸

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

You owe me 1 hryvnia for watching this video 🤨 Just kidding! 🤭 I just decided to show you how funny I run in this jacket :)) #песпатрон

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

19Comments

  1. 1.

    Anonymous At Work

    Bad times kept me away when I read this but EU Parliament is considering a Section 7 sanction of Hungary over repeatedly carrying Putin’s water.  Any cause for optimism that the EU Parliament might actual smack Putin’s pawn out of Ukraine’s path to accession?

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    I really want to hope this REPO Act thing will happen, because that would be great. But sometimes I find it hard to dredge up any optimism.

    However, if this girl can do it, I should too. From the In Ukraine FB page:

    A blind girl Anna-Mariya Herman from Lviv region fundraised UAH 2 mln for Ukrainian defenders by singing in the streets

    If I did the currency conversion right, two million hryvnias is almost $53,000 USD, which is wild.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Tazj

    I hate to admit that I thought Bibi was feeling some pressure. Oh well, now I know.

    I’m glad that the Biden administration is backing the REPO act.

  5. 5.

    teezyskeezy

    @Adam L Silverman: Holy cow, Adam expressed an optimism.

    (look, man, I know you’ll say you aren’t that optimistic and I need to cool my jets, i know…but it’s more optimism from you than we’ve seen before.)

  12. 12.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic: But, hopefully, die comically! I’m trying to think how to have my funeral procession create an insoluble traffic jam by ejecting my coffin from the back of the hearse at a major intersection. Unfortunately, my wife is unlikely to consent to any such plan, but I have hopes of locating a loyal confederate to manage matters.

    Plan B is wearing vampire costume (including fake fangs) while I lie in the coffin at my wake.

    ETA: Benny Hill Show theme music to be looped on the funeral home speakers during the wake.

  13. 13.

    Bill Arnold

    Nick Cave, via a thread this morning, bold mine:
    ‘It took devastation to find hope’: How Nick Cave was transformed by grief (Michael Dwyer, May 10, 2022)

    “Hopefulness is not a neutral position” he wrote to that fan named Valerio last month. “It is adversarial. It is the warrior emotion that can lay waste to cynicism. Each redemptive or loving act, as small as you like, Valerio, such as reading to your little boy, or showing him a thing you love, or singing him a song, or putting on his shoes, keeps the devil down in the hole. It says the world and its inhabitants have value and are worth defending. It says the world is worth believing in. In time, we come to find that it is so.”

    Crossed with Illia Ponomarenko above: “Gods indeed have the sense of dark humor.”

  14. 14.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Re the FT article, I think here is where the US strategic incoherence & lack if holistic perspective come through:

    1. Semiconductors used for military (& space) applications are mature nodes nearly two decades behind the current state of the art, & can generally use commoditized chips that are as difficult to regulate the flow of as other commodities (oil, gas, grains, etc.)
    2. Chinese firms are either emerging or dominant players in mature/commoditized semiconductors & other commoditized medium tech products w/ potential dual uses (we have talked about CNCs before)
    3. Many of these firms started w/ high degree of state support, & achieved initial critical mass by selling to the Chinese military, government & SOEs, since they were nurtured to prevent foreign powers from having a strangle hold over Chinese MIC & strategic industries to begin w/
    4. Many of these firms are already under US FDPR restrictions/sanctions either due to perceived ties w/ the Chinese MIC or government, or under the tech restrictions imposed by Trump & Biden Administrations, the rest expect that they will inevitably be placed under restrictions sooner or later
    5. The semiconductor restrictions emplaced by Trump & Biden Administrations, & the perceived attempts by the USG to kill Chinese tech champions such as Huawei, have led to an all out all of society effort in the PRC to 1st de-Americanize, then de-Westernize, then fully indigenize their supply chains (or at least as much as possible)
    6. Enormous resources are being invested into leading & near leading edge semiconductors, but the PRC government & companies see mature node semiconductors (for autos, household appliances & industrial applications, military/space being a very small fraction) as low hanging fruits to rapidly expand market share, increase revenue streams, achieve scale & optimize operations, develop customer trust, & disrupt long standing Western incumbents w/ their fatter margins (even if some of them are manufacturing in the PRC), & they now have captive markets in the PRC & other countries under US sanction (or do not actively align w/ the US) to grow & mature
    7. As of today, the PRC economy is dependent on imports for the majority of its mature semiconductor needs (from TW & the EU), but that will likely change in the next 3 years; US$ 1.9B is a rounding error of current PRC domestic production, let alone future production or overall demand

    In summary, many Chinese manufacturers of commoditized medium/high tech goods are furiously indigenizing their supply chains, are already under US restrictions or operating under the assumption that they will be soon, are attempting to conduct transaction in currencies other than the USD, the flow of their exports are nearly impossible to regulate or even monitor, & operate under a government in no mood to cooperate w/ the US vis-a-vis Russia. The USG has virtually no leverage here, because the enormous leverage it used to have had already been expended for the trade & tech wars.

    A specific example that demonstrate both sides of the equation is Huawei. Why did Huawei exit the Russian market as soon as Western sanctions were imposed (unexpected for many), despite Huawei itself being under some of the most severe restrictions imposed by the US, & Western markets increasingly hostile to its products? Because there are still European markets open to Huawei, which outweigh the size of the Russian market, & because Huawei still conducts transactions in USD in Global South markets. However, USG through 2 administrations have been working hard to convince allies/partners/non-aligned parties to ditch Huawei products, & there have been steady & vocal calls from parts of Congress to shut off Huawei’s access to USD transactions (similar to the sanctions currently in place over Russian state entities). If that actually happens, what Huawei will jump back into the Russian market w/ both feet, as it would have nothing to lose.

    Sometimes it feels as if the US policymakers prefer to will their desired end state into being, rather than carefully create the delicate incentive structures to promote that end state. There are no priorities because everything is a priority. There is not a willingness to recognize the trade offs or 2nd & 3rd order consequence, even fairly obvious ones.

    Of course, there are parts of the US foreign policy “Blob” (more apparent in the think tank world, especially the GOP aligned ones, & Congress) that do prioritize geopolitical competition w/ the PRC over all else, & the world divided into completely decoupled & inimically opposed Cold War blocks is the outcome they are trying to engineer. To them, having the PRC completely align w/ & unrestrained in support of Russia is a positive development, because that means the EU & Japan will be in complete lockstep w/ & beholden to the US. If the unrestrained PRC support tilts the balance on the battlefield decisively toward Russia & against Ukraine, that is just collateral damage to their geopolitical maneuvering. At least the Biden Administration has been working to prevent that outcome at the diplomatic level, but its tech war policies vis-a-vis the PRC is promoting that outcome at the ground level. Hence, strategic incoherence.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    In other news, the US & the UK just launched strikes against Houthi targets. It was inevitable given the escalating Houthi attacks against civilian shipping in the Red Sea, ostensibly to put pressure on Israel over its war in Gaza. However, not sure how the US/UK can suppress the Houthis’ anti-shipping threat just via sea & air power. Ultimately, this requires a diplomatic solution (unless the US is willing to put boots on the ground), but the US has no leverage over either the Houthis or Iran (because all of the leverage had already been expended in sanctions & steadfast support of KSA).

    Some of the container ships that are still braving the transit through the Red Sea. the Suez Canal are claiming Chinese connection to avoid being targeted by the Houthis. So far, the Houthis have studious avoided targeting Chinese owned/operated/flagged vessels. Thus, vessels are starting to claim “CHINESE COMPANY” as in the destination field on AIS. At the same time, the Chinese anti-Somali piracy naval task force has refused to participate in the US led coalition to safeguard civilian shipping in the Bab-el-Mandeb & the Red Sea. The Chinese government has asserted that Houthis’ hostile actions are targeted acts of war & not indiscriminate piracy, thus outside of the mandate of its naval task force.

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