There was a robust discussion regarding Norwegian doctoral fellow RF Hoffman’s thread on the risk Putin and Russia poses to Europe and the world. And by robust I mean both interesting and good. Which I read when I got up this morning. I wanted to make a couple of points. The first is that Carlo is, indeed, correct that the international relations theory concept of rational versus irrational actors is hollow. Putin isn’t irrational. Rather, a la Weber, he operates within bounded rationality. Which means within his specific context, his decision making – from process to actual decision – is rational. As in it makes sense given what he believes about the world, the global system, Russian history, etc. The problem, of course, is that what Putin believes, and what those around him, working for him, most likely to replace him one day believe, is inaccurate, ahistorical, etc.

The second is that Putin and contemporary Russia are not the Soviet Union. The USSR, for all it being officially big C Communist, was inherently small c conservative. Putin and the Russia that has evolved, or perhaps devolved, under his long rule, is reactionary, revanchist, and irredentist. Russia’s neighbors who were subjected to Soviet rule look at what he’d done, what he’s doing, and what he threatens to do and draw very different conclusions than we do. Finland and Sweden didn’t decide to join NATO in the past 2 years for shits and giggles.

Third, we need to remember that NATO Article V does not compel a member state to come to the self defense of another that has been attacked. As former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder explains:

Legally, the U.S. (or any other NATO member, for that matter) is merely obliged to take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” In other words, each member is left to decide for itself whether and how to act in case of an armed attack on an ally. And even that provision, in Article 5, is only binding after all NATO members agree to invoke the commitment.

Putin knows this. And he thinks, based on observation over the past two years, that he’s taken the measure of the US, the EU, and NATO and found them lacking in resolve. Which leads to my fourth and final point: our EU partners, in or out of NATO, do not have the means to actually fight a war. Max Bergmann from CSIS explains:

Europe’s approach to supporting Ukraine’s war effort is no longer fit for purpose. There is a desperate need for Europe to ramp up its defense industrial production. But despite a clear consensus behind this urgent need, European production lines are not yet maxing out their capacity. The root of the issue is not so much a lack of political will but, as is frequently the case with European defense, a failure to cooperate and a lack of funding.

Time is of the utmost urgency. Russian defense production is accelerating, with Russia gearing up for a winter offensive and bombarding Ukrainian cities in the December at the highest rate since the conflict began. It is clear that Putin is not seeking an off-ramp or negotiated settlement to this war but to reverse Russia’s humiliation and subjugate Ukraine. However, Europe has not yet shifted to the new reality that Ukraine faces a long war. Should the U.S. Congress fail to pass more funding for Ukraine, the transfer of U.S. weapons, most worryingly munitions, will slow to a trickle. With U.S. support for Ukraine on thin ice in Congress, former president Donald Trump leading the polls, and Russia ramping up its war machine, Europe needs to act urgently to both support Ukraine and restock its warehouses to improve its own military readiness.

Over the past two years, Europeans have supported Ukraine by emptying their warehouses of aging equipment and munitions. The European Union’s European Peace Facility (EPF) has incentivized its member states to give military equipment to Ukraine by reimbursing them for some of the costs.  However, there is now little left to give, as most of the old equipment has been divested. As such, European military support to Kyiv is lagging. The problem is that there is a tension between rebuilding European militaries and supporting Ukraine. Thus, European countries are much more reluctant to give Ukraine newer, more expensive equipment, which is vital for national defense and meeting NATO targets.

Much more at the link.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The social situation in Ukraine today is largely based on the quality of implementation of international agreements – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

25 January 2024 – 19:19

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about the day.

In the morning I held a conference call. Reports from the military and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, intelligence information, reports from the regions on the elimination of the consequences of Russian strikes. Odesa, Donetsk region… A separate topic is preparations for the UN Security Council meeting in New York that are currently underway. The Minister of Foreign Affairs reported on our work and contacts with partners in this regard.

In the afternoon, I had a conversation with the President of Slovenia. We discussed both bilateral issues and international cooperation. Slovenia has become a member of the UN Security Council and is an active participant in the processes in European institutions. We discussed our cooperation at all levels. Of course, I provided information on the battlefield situation and our current needs. First of all, it is very important to maintain confidence in relations with our partners, in particular in the European Union. I am grateful for the understanding of the macro-financial situation and the necessity of further unwavering support for Ukraine. This is the key signal the enemy must see. Russia must feel that Europe maintains readiness to defend its values and unity at all levels. We also discussed cooperation on the Peace Formula with Mrs. President of Slovenia.

Of all the meetings today, I would like to mention a long meeting on the results of various negotiations of our representatives in Switzerland, primarily at the governmental level. Government officials, the economic team of the Office. There were many agreements in Davos, many meetings, including with international businesses. We have to implement everything that was discussed as quickly as possible. Our people, the Ukrainian society, need to see tangible results of our foreign policy activities, as the social situation in Ukraine today is largely based on the quality of implementation of international agreements. Separately, the Prime Minister of Ukraine reported on the negotiations with his Slovak counterpart. Ukraine is interested in practical cooperation with our EU neighbors – in everything that strengthens our nations, our economies, and provides jobs in our countries.

And one more thing.

Our warriors of the National Guard of Ukraine. Today there is something to honor them for. The special forces of the 1st and 3rd separate assault squads “Omega”. The guys are fighting very effectively on the front lines, in the hottest areas of the front. The 15th Slovyansk regiment and the 4th operational brigade of the National Guard – the Eastern direction. Thank you for your accuracy, warriors.

And today is also the professional day of the cybersecurity specialists of the Security Service of Ukraine – the Department of Counterintelligence Protection of the State’s Interests in the Field of Information Security – my congratulations to all the employees of the Department, and thank you for your work both in the rear and on the frontline. I thank everyone who makes Ukraine stronger! Those who fight for Ukraine, and those who work to make Ukraine and our people, our society stronger.

Glory to Ukraine!

Today’s is President Zelenskyy’s 46th birthday:

Happy Birthday, Mr. President @ZelenskyyUa! pic.twitter.com/76cs5uaJt7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 25, 2024

Unfortunately, what he got for his birthday was Mitch McConnell prepping his caucus to throw in the towel:

NEWS – @LeaderMcConnell raises doubts about whether Senate Republicans should move ahead with border security-Ukraine aid deal.

He told GOP senators “The politics of this have changed,” and noted Trump wants to run on immigration.

“We are in a quandary,” McConnell said

— John Bresnahan (@bresreports) January 24, 2024

3/ This may be the end of getting any significant Ukrainian funding thru Congress.

McConnell is as vocal a Ukraine backer as there is on Hill, but opposition is growing inside GOP. Only gonna be more so as Trump tightens grip on nomination

— John Bresnahan (@bresreports) January 24, 2024

Here’s Doug Klain’s, a policy analyst at Razom for Ukraine, take:

Sources confirm that Trump is directly trying to tank Ukraine/border negotiations to deny Biden a political win and keep immigration as a campaign issue this year.

There's a few ways this might go. Few are good for Ukraine, and above all, precious time has been wasted. 🧵 https://t.co/lHEfJX6ybk

— Doug Klain (@DougKlain) January 25, 2024

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Recent polling (e.g. @timothymfrye) shows that Trump wields outsize influence on Republicans on Ukraine.

For Republican voters, a direct appeal from Trump against Ukraine aid torpedoes their support. Congressional Republicans know this.

What Moves Public Support for Aid to Ukraine?https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4662428

Despite McConnell’s comments, not all Republicans are on board.

“Somebody who is trying to defeat legislation, all in the name of running for office? That is irresponsible,” @BillCassidy told @USATODAY.

‘Trainwreck’: Conservative GOP senators break on border, Ukraine deal as Donald Trump pressures RepublicansConservative Republican senators are growing weary of bipartisan border and Ukraine talks as Donald Trump looms in the background.https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/01/24/conservative-gop-senators-border-ukraine-donald-trump/72341172007/

It’s possible McConnell is trying to open the path to delinking Ukraine and immigration reform so that a Ukraine (maybe w/ Israel) package can be put forward on its own merits.

As a Senate Republican staffer said privately last week, the votes for Ukraine are absolutely there. 

But Trump’s direct intervention could also tank a Ukraine deal. He hasn’t come out publicly against yet—thankfully—but doing so would make it very difficult for Republicans to defy him in an election year. He’d single them out, & doing the right thing just isn’t worth it to many. 

No matter what, it’s worth remembering just how much time has been wasted here. Ukraine is running out of ammo, more missiles are getting through air defense, more people are dying.

This delay is happening because some are choosing political power over national interest. 

The worst of cynical politics are on display from Republicans and Trump here. McCarthy thought linking Ukraine/border could save his speakership, the White House was willing to make a deal, and now Ukraine is being treated like nothing more than a bargaining chip. 

From colleagues doing regular meetings with congressional offices, there is zero energy or motivation to make something happen on Ukraine. They support Ukraine, but they don’t feel the urgency or like they have a chance of making something happen themselves. 

Many Republicans want to aid Ukraine, but they won’t break with Trump over it.

For European (and especially Ukrainian) observers, remember that many of these officials could have been killed by Trump’s people on January 6, yet they still stand by him. Trump’s the X factor here. 

Above all, this shows that US politics in 2024 are too unmoored from rational statecraft for Europe and Ukraine to rely on America. That is a devastating reality.

I’m hoping to publish a more detailed article soon on what Europe can do to hedge against a second Trump admin. 

The coming days will be critical for Ukraine.

Does Trump come out against a deal? Does the Senate bring something to a vote anyway? Can Ukraine and immigration be delinked?

America’s allies are watching. Putin is watching. Ukrainians are fighting and dying.

What are we doing? 

Just yesterday McConnell published a press release saying: “Accelerating Russian defeat in Europe is precisely what will help ensure we don’t wind up dealing with simultaneous aggression from adversaries in Europe and the Indo-Pacific."

Compare to:https://t.co/fQbVpCzR6U https://t.co/o5tvMiCifh pic.twitter.com/bbj9MQXaWw

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 25, 2024

Here’s Schumer’s response:

Schumer finally speaks on the floor, alluding to McConnell blow up:

“As we’ve seen today, getting a bipartisan agreement on the supplemental is very difficult but I am glad that now negotiations are continuing to move forward”

— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) January 25, 2024

Not sure what else he was going to say.

Romney, on the way out the door, speaks the truth:

It's hard to overstate the degree of cynicism motivating Trump and his allies here. I think even a lot of people who profess to "hate politics" would be shocked if they understood how much of the dysfunction in institutions like the Senate is by design. https://t.co/bCHlWUIo2A

— McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) January 25, 2024

Jake Sherman is, unfortunately, right:

I think Republicans have been living in that world for eight years. https://t.co/B4X8eAIVbR

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) January 25, 2024

JD Vance had thoughts. Or, rather, Peter Thiel had them and Vance is obligated to vocalize them. Illia Ponomarenko has a response:

The worst part of this is that all these people actually know very well that most of the U.S.-allocated funds to help Ukraine repel the biggest European war of invasion since WWII actually stay in the U.S. as government contacts for American enterprises that provide American… pic.twitter.com/nLA1awTXn6

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 25, 2024

The worst part of this is that all these people actually know very well that most of the U.S.-allocated funds to help Ukraine repel the biggest European war of invasion since WWII actually stay in the U.S. as government contacts for American enterprises that provide American jobs, American salaries, and American taxes.

This, of course, includes J.D. Vance’s state of Ohio, particularly the city of Lima, where American workers prepare armored vehicles for Ukraine as part of a government contract.

Moreover, these people know very well that throughout almost two years of the full-scale war in Ukraine, neither U.S. and European officials, or NATO, nor the media have not established any hard facts of Ukraine misusing or smuggling foreign military aid.

But hey, why not cynically hold your own voters for fools and spit at the lives of millions of people for your own petty politics?

Unfortunately, Ukraine is beginning to run out of munitions because the House and Senate GOP caucuses have subordinated themselves to both their extreme members and Trump:

Ukraine Situation Report: Artillery Ammo Crisis Giving Russia Major Advantage

With U.S. aid running dry and Europe unable to meet commitments, Ukraine is finding itself badly outgunned.

Our latest update: https://t.co/hqhTh4fhp0

— The War Zone (@thewarzonewire) January 25, 2024

From The Drive: (emphasis mine)

As Russia’s full-on invasion drags on toward a third year, Ukraine is finding itself increasingly outgunned when it comes to vital artillery ammunition.

A recent CNN report highlighted that problem, with one Ukrainian fire team only receiving smoke rounds after their magazine went empty, while the Russians are firing 10 times as many shells on a daily basis.

Those concerns have been echoed by the Pentagon.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander told reporters, including from The War Zone, that Ukrainian officials have raised the issue.

The Pentagon has “heard reports from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and general staff that they believe that units do not have the stocks and the stores of ammunition that they require,” she said Tuesday. “And that is one of the reasons we have been focusing on the need to answer Congress’s questions so that they are able to move forward on a decision to pass the supplemental.”

Late last year, President Joe Biden requested a $106 billion supplemental spending package to be split between Ukraine and Israel, but also including funds to boost competition with China in the Indo-Pacific, as well as security along the U.S. border with Mexico. Congress has not passed it.

That has held up U.S. donations to Ukraine.

At the 18th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) held earlier this week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged allies to continue helping Ukraine. However, it was the first time the U.S. has not provided any aid. The last aid was announced in December, a package valued up to $250 million that included an undisclosed amount of 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition.

The Pentagon’s top spokesman also raised concerns about the lack of supplemental funding.

“You know, obviously, the continued lack of funding has forced us to pause drawing down additional items from our inventories, given the implications for our own military readiness,” Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters, including from The War Zone, on Tuesday. “And this, of course, prevents us from meeting Ukraine’s most urgent battlefield needs to include things like artillery rounds, anti-tank weapons, air defense interceptors.”

Compounding the problem, the European Union had promised to deliver one million shells by spring of this year, but European Parliament lawmakers say only 300,000 have been delivered so far.

Conversely, Estonia’s top military commander said fresh intelligence on Russia’s ability to produce ammunition and recruit troops has prompted a re-evaluation among NATO allies and a spate of warnings to prepare for a long-term conflict, according to Bloomberg.

“Martin Herem, the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, said predictions that Russian forces would reach the limits of their resources haven’t come true,” the publication reported. “President Vladimir Putin’s military has the capacity to produce several million artillery shells a year, far outstripping European efforts, and can recruit hundreds of thousands of new troops, he said.”

There also remains concern in the Pentagon, expressed again today by Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh, about the artillery ammunition as well as ballistic missiles being provided by North Korea to Russia.

Russia had been struggling to keep up with Ukraine’s artillery expenditures before a deal was reached between Moscow and Pyongyang to provide massive quantities of artillery rounds, which North Korea is swimming in and can independently produce more, as well as other weapons for Russia’s war effort. This has caused a huge influx of rounds for the Russian side just as the stream of American artillery shells has dried up.

More at the link!

If you’re wondering how that North Korean ammo is getting to Russia, Tatarigami has you covered!

Frontelligence Insight tracked logistical routes between Russia and North Korea, calculated delivery numbers, and identified storage points. We are disclosing North Korea’s ammo transport ecosystem – and revealing some of its crucial nodes for the first time.

🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/ytD1irx49t

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) January 25, 2024

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:

2/ Frontelligence Insight has estimated the number of ammunition deliveries between September and December to be approximately 1.57 million artillery shells, combining 152mm and 122mm ammo.

3/ Evident from recent imagery, since October 2023, 20 ft shipping containers filled with ammunition are loaded onto sea vessels at Raijin port (Rason) and shipped to Dunai port near Vladivostok in Russia’s far east.

4/ Ammo shipments from North Korea in 2024 are observed in January imagery. Containers offloaded at Dunai port are transported by trucks to the port’s railroad branch. Russians then load these containers onto trains for transportation across Russia to locations near Ukraine.

5/ Upon arrival in Russia, the artillery ammo in containers is directed to at least three identified locations where Russians store and distribute it:

– Tikhoretsk ammunition storage
– Mozdok ammunition storage
– Yegorlykskaya airfield 

6/ The Tikhoretsk ammo depot in Rostov Oblast, serves as a consistent artillery ammo storage during the war. Satellite imagery from mid-August 2023 shows Russians preparing revetments for storage, with documented arrivals of 20 ft cargo containers by September

7/ Unlike the Tikhoretsk ammo depot, Mozdok is over 600 km away from the Ukrainian border, making immediate delivery of ammo to the frontlines unlikely. It might potentially function as storage for ballistic missiles used against Ukraine on December 30, 2023, and January 2, 2024

8/ The Frontelligence Insight team analyzed satellite imagery of the area, determining that the initial shipments arrived at Mozdok in early October 2023. Like the Tikhoretsk ammo depot, containers are transported via trains and subsequently unloaded near the ammunition site.

9/ Yegorlykskaya airfield

Yegorlykskaya, a small rural town in Rostov Oblast, about 90 km from the Tikhoretsk Ammo Depot, discreetly serves as an additional ammunition storage site. Unlike other known locations, Yegorlykskaya has no previous associations with ammo storage

10/ By October, objects resembling crates and containers began to appear in the area. The timeline, discreet location near the railroad, and the appearance of objects resembling containers in revetments strongly indicate that this location is likely associated with ammo logistics

11/ After arriving at the designated locations, the ammunition is transported using civilian and military trucks. The destination includes specific military units or temporary makeshift ammo dumps approximately halfway to the intended unit. 

12/ Given that Russia produced approximately 2 million artillery rounds in 2023 and received approximately 1.57 million rounds from North Korea, it’s likely that Russia will continue to increase its domestic production while covering current needs through foreign deliveries 

13/ While these numbers may not enable Russia to use artillery as extensively as in 2022, they still provide Russia with an artillery firepower advantage when considering the Ukrainian ammo situation. 

14/ Kindly like and share the first message of our thread. Consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support, and maintaining quality without financing is still challenging for us. Thank you

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

Here’s some new info on the downed IL-26:

More information on downed Il-76 plane from Ukr military intelligence spox.
— several political VIPs supposed to be on plane but denied boarding by Russian security at last minute
— only 5 bodies delivered to morgue yesterday.
We still have no evidence Ukr POWs were on board. pic.twitter.com/rSxBGzQXx2

— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) January 25, 2024

Avdiivka:

This is what Avdiivka looks like today… 25.01.2024

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) January 25, 2024

IMPORTANT: This girl is raising funds to buy FPV drones for defenders of Avdiivka, namely the 110th Mechanized.
You can directly help Ukraine sustain the biggest battle of today.
The battle rages on, and the situation is dire.
I’ve sent a donation, too. https://t.co/nYwKUPy5eP

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 25, 2024

Illovaisk, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

A video of an aftermath of the strike on a training ground near Illovaisk, where a group of Russian UAV/FPV operators was located, appeared in the media.
Earlier today Russian sources reported about this strike, supposedly 24 Russians were killed as a result. https://t.co/ecRgUNxB78 pic.twitter.com/9COw4abXMA

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 25, 2024

The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Special Operations Forces of Ukraine clear Russian observation posts on the Dnipro river. Kherson region.https://t.co/3zJmDjkeW8 pic.twitter.com/HOQsVqXbNb

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 25, 2024

Tuapse, Russia:

Largest Rosneft oil refinery on the Black Sea, Putin's crony Sechin's pride and joy, is ablaze in Tuapse after a reported drone attack. Perhaps the most effective sanctions against Russia to date pic.twitter.com/LwmFFwfF4C

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 25, 2024

Michael Weiss has a new interview with the Estonian military analyst known as Karl.

🧵New interview with "Karl," the Estonian military analyst whose insights on the war in Ukraine have proved remarkably acute. With @holger_r:

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) January 25, 2024

Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader App:

“Let’s start from the frontlines where changes over the last months have been completely minimal. Russia has slight success south of Kupyansk and allegedly also south of Avdiivka, but it is only on a very operational level.” 

“While Ukraine didn’t achieve much during their 3-month offensive in the summer, Russia achieved even less now over the last 3 months. It’s a stalemate.” 

“Ukraine’s problem is the increasing shortage of specific ammunition. It’s not yet totally dire but the limits are getting close.” 

“There is increasingly more information coming from different sections on the frontline that Russia’s superiority in artillery fire is getting critical.” 

“If the situation doesn’t improve, it will start affecting the frontline. No matter how much smarter you are or how much more accurate and efficient your weapons are, if the ratio is 10:1 for Russia, it will affect the frontline.” 

“Ukraine’s big achievement is that they have continuously weakened Russia’s positions at and around the Black Sea. Hitting the A-50 and IL-22 planes impedes Russia’s missile attacks coming from that direction.” 

“The intensity of Russia’s missile attacks is clearly lower than it was last year. Then they had weekly attacks with more than 100 missiles, now the number of missiles is more around 40 and attacks are not weekly.” 

“In the beginning of winter last year Russia even carried out such large scale attacks twice a week.” 

“Ukraine’s air defense is significantly better than a year ago. Last winter there were several regions which were without electricity for days. We don’t see this now. I think we can say that from the energy point of view, Ukraine will survive the winter.” 

“Ukraine doesn’t have the capability to shoot down S-300/S-400 and Kh-22 rockets. But their radius is small. Russia can target Kharkiv, Kherson, smaller towns in Sumy and maybe Zaporizhzhia with them.” 

“Those missiles were intended for air defense and anti-ship purposes but Russia is using them on land targets. Their accuracy is really off and that’s why Russia can’t hit military targets with them. They will miss. That is why we see random residential houses hit in Kharkiv.” 

“The percentage of shot-down cruise missiles is very high but with Iskander’s it was at 50% yesterday. Ukraine has started to emphasize that they are using increasingly more REB (radio electronic combat) methods in air defense.” 

“Rockets are not being shot down but jammers lead them off the targets. If Ukraine can successfully use REB, it is good news because it saves air defense rockets and is also cheaper.” 

“The biggest problem continues to be the West’s inability to fund and equip Ukraine. The EU’s decision to fund Ukraine [with €50bn] will come next week one way or another. But there is no assurance whatsoever that the U.S. will approve its package.” 

“Reportedly the Senate will agree on aid this week but it doesn’t guarantee that House Republicans will tag along. The Senate has been quiet on this topic this week but that might not be so bad. Often a lot of noise is worse than quiet.” 

“The Biden administration doesn’t consider Ukraine an absolute priority problem. They’re playing their political games so that they could blame the GOP for blocking aid. The Republicans in turn can blame Dems for not taking the U.S southern border seriously enough.” 

“Because neither issue is a top priority for either side, there is no decision and political games continue. Then there’s also the U.S. “fear of escalation.” All in all, the administration hasn’t set a goal of Ukraine beating Russia and chasing them out of their territory.” 

“Their maximum goal is that Russia doesn’t win the war. It is a long-term strategic mistake which stems from the lack of courage in decision-making.” 

“The U.S aid package has been coming since October. Now we are really running out of time. Even when the decision is eventually made, there will be a gap in Ukraine’s capabilities on the frontline because supplies take time to arrive.” 

“There will be very difficult weeks ahead. Ukraine will not lose the war in just a few weeks and Russia will not gain a massive advantage. But in a matter of a few months, the situation can become critically worse.” 

“Europe is getting better in this but in the short term Europe’s contributions will not be able to replace America’s. There are also considerable problems getting Ukraine’s own military industry up and running.” 

“Historically, Ukraine’s military industry has been located either on currently occupied areas or close to the frontlines.” 

“It’s unrealistic to do it there now. Restoring the industry anywhere on Ukraine’s territory requires a very high level of air defense capabilities. Otherwise it will be a pointless investment.” 

“If the West’s aid returns to the “Biden minimum” level, it is highly probable that the frontline will remain stable in the coming months. Some decisive factors will be who will be better at developing drone capabilities, REB etc.” /END 

For you EW enthusiasts.

Rapid pace of innovation & counter-innovation in Ukraine. "The Brave Cluster, a gov't-supported platform promoting collaboration between tech industry, has developed AD Counter FPV, an [EW] system that blocks radio waves used by Russian FPV drones" https://t.co/B81OEuTlMf

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 25, 2024

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

The Brave Cluster, a Ukrainian government-supported coordination platform promoting collaboration between technology defence industry stakeholders, has developed AD Counter FPV, an electronic warfare system that blocks radio waves used by Russian FPV drones.

Source: Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Education, Science and Technology and Minister of Digital Transformation, on Telegram

Quote: “The system generates white noise in the 850-940 MHz radio frequency range, making FPV drones lose communication with operators and become uncontrollable. The system’s operating range is upwards of 250 metres if the distance between the drone and its operator is 3,000 metres. The system starts working quickly after switching on, taking no longer than 0.5 seconds to get up and running.”

Details: Ukrainian soldiers have already been able to use the new electronic warfare system.

Fedorov added that they say AD Counter FPV is one of the most effective portable electronic warfare systems.

Quote: “One of this system’s advantages is that it’s light and weighs only 3 kg without its battery. It also has a tripod, so it’s easy to mount it on top of a vehicle.

At the request of the military, the developers have created a backpack version of AD Counter FPV. It is also being actively used by the military and has proven to be an indispensable item.”

That’s enough for tonight.

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