Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

When the time comes to make an endorsement, the pain of NYT editors will be palpable as they reluctantly whisper “Biden.”

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Fani Willis claps back at Trump chihuahua, Jim Jordan.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

It’s a doggy dog world.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself. We’re allowed to grow past that.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Optimism opens the door to great things.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

“Why isn’t this Snickers bar only a nickel?”

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

Found liable for massive fraud, is required to post a massive bond, gets a break, then files a *fraudulent* bond!

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

The US Supreme Court is on the ballot in november.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Republicans don’t trust women.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 706: This Morning, Russia Once Again Bombarded Kharkiv

War for Ukraine Day 706: This Morning, Russia Once Again Bombarded Kharkiv

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Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We are working on a new security architecture that Ukraine, the whole of Europe and the entire Euro-Atlantic region need – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

30 January 2024 – 19:30

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

I have just spoken with the President of Finland. We had a very cordial conversation. I thanked him for supporting Ukraine, our people, and our defense. I mentioned how much Finland has done for its own security and for the security of the whole of Europe – historic things indeed. We have meaningful bilateral cooperation, the most extensive one since Ukraine gained its independence. We also emphasized how important it is for our states and all our partners to remain principled in their relations in European and Euro-Atlantic structures with regard to our region, the eastern flank of Europe.

I had a meeting with Anders Fogh Rasmussen – we are working together on a new security architecture that Ukraine, the whole of Europe, and the entire Euro-Atlantic region need. Mr. Rasmussen, with his experience as NATO Secretary General, helped Ukraine with the security commitment system: its philosophy and possible framework were developed in an expert group headed by Rasmussen and Andriy Yermak.

We now have a community of 32 states that have joined the G7 Declaration on security commitments, as well as the first bilateral agreement – with the UK. There will also be new agreements. We are now finalizing the text of several documents. This work is very important.

And now Mr. Rasmussen has outlined plans to establish a new international task force to address the issue of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. Bringing our country closer to full membership in NATO is an unchanging priority. We are gradually fulfilling it.

Today, I also held a meeting with the Ministry of Strategic Industries. Oleksandr Kamyshin reported on the results in the production of drones and ammunition. We are ramping up production. It is very important that we are adding new positions and the adoption of new weapon models is underway. Domestic production of drones, shells, and military vehicles is literally the production of our freedom, the freedom of Ukrainians and Ukraine. Because in such conditions of a full-scale war, it is force that is the basis of freedom. And I am grateful to all the employees of our defense industry who ensure this – ensure Ukrainian strength – with their work for the sake of defense. I thank you all! And by the way, today the Minister reported separately on the production of long-range drones, which is one of the key tasks for the defense industry.

One more thing.

Our cities, our communities, which are being attacked by Russia. Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions. Nikopol, Marhanets. The situation in many border communities is extremely difficult. But we always keep in mind that in every community, in every city, there are rescuers from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, police officers, our doctors, and volunteers. Everywhere there are people who save lives. And I thank each and every one of them who works in this way – for the sake of life.

Today I would like to especially recognize the employees of the State Emergency Service in Kherson region: Sergeants Ivan Bocharov and Mykola Liubchenko, Chief Master Sergeant Roman Popuriy. As well as police officers: Lieutenant Yehor Ivanov and Senior Lieutenant Oleksandr Butenko. The State Emergency Service in Kharkiv region: Sergeant Dmytro Holosniak, Chief Master Sergeant Oleksandr Antoniv and Colonel Oleksiy Serhiyenko. As well as police officers: Captain Anastasiia Zhyzhyna and Major Artem Romanko. In Donetsk region, I would like to recognize the crew of the Phoenix rescue team of the State Emergency Service: Civil Protection Service Majors Eduard Annenkov, Vitaliy Salamakha and Dmytro Durakov. And also the White Angels police crew: Senior Lieutenant Dmytro Soloviy and Hennadiy Yudin.

I thank all of you and your colleagues for your dedication and for saving lives.

Glory to everyone who fights for Ukraine and Ukrainians! Who works to help fight. Who works to save people and Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Russia has launched over 330 missiles of various types and approximately 600 combat drones at Ukrainian cities since the beginning of the year.

To withstand such terrorist pressure, a sufficiently strong air shield is required. And this is the type of air shield we are building with our partners.

We must ensure Ukraine’s control over its skies, which is also critical to ensuring security on the ground—from frontline positions to hospitals and schools in the rear.

Air defense and electronic warfare are our top priorities. Russian terror must be defeated—this is achievable.

@United24media

The cost:

The Netherlands:

€122 million—a new military aid package from the Netherlands.
Thank you, friends, for your unwavering support 🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱

The Netherlands is contributing €87 million to the purchase of artillery shells, €25 million to the purchase of equipment, and €10 million is an investment in improving Ukraine’s cyber defenses.

@Defensie

This is good news given the GOP House majority created mess in DC:

From Politico:

The Pentagon has successfully tested a new long-range precision bomb for Ukraine that is expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as Wednesday, according to two U.S. officials and two other people with knowledge of the talks.

Ukraine will receive its first batch of Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, a brand new long-range weapon made by Boeing that even the U.S. doesn’t have in its inventory, according to the four people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss matters ahead of an announcement.

The new bomb, which can travel about 90 miles, is expected to be “a significant capability for Ukraine,” said one of the U.S. officials.

“It gives them a deeper strike capability they haven’t had, it complements their long-range fire arsenal,” the U.S. official said. “It’s just an extra arrow in the quiver that’s gonna allow them to do more.”

An Army spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder declined to comment on timing “due to operational security.”

“I will refer to Ukraine to talk about any delivery,” he told reporters on Tuesday. “But we do, as I mentioned, continue to work closely with Ukraine and with our industry partners to ensure that Ukraine receives and is ready to use the capabilities that we’re delivering to them, and as quickly as possible.”

The weapon, co-developed by Boeing and Saab, is made up of a precision-guided 250-pound bomb strapped to a rocket motor and fired from various ground launchers. The U.S. military has a similar version of the bomb that is air-launched, but a ground-launched version does not yet exist in U.S. inventory.

The extended range will put a new capability in Kyiv’s arsenal at a time when fighting along the front is in a stalemate, and as Ukraine looks for new ways to hit Russian forces and infrastructure behind the front lines.

The bomb will join other long-range weapons given to Ukraine over the past year that have allowed its troops to hit Russian logistics and naval sites in Crimea. While the new bombs don’t have the range of the British Storm Shadow or the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System, it is arriving as Ukraine’s stockpiles of artillery and munitions are running low.

New funding for Ukraine is part of the $111 billion emergency supplemental that’s been stalled on Capitol Hill. Despite the fact that the U.S. has no new money to authorize weapons transfers from existing stocks, the U.S. signed a contract with Boeing last year to provide the weapon to Kyiv.

Ukraine will be the first country to use the bomb in combat, making it a critical test case for other countries that have been snapping up long-range munitions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Pentagon announced last February that the Biden administration was providing the new bomb to Ukraine. But before sending the new version, the U.S. military needed to test the weapon — and that took many months.

The Army oversaw the testing of the new precision-guided bomb before providing its stamp of approval to send the weapon to Ukraine, according to an industry source.

The air-launched version was created in 2019, but despite successful tests, Boeing and Saab did not make a sale until the U.S. decided to donate it to Ukraine as part of an aid package.

We now have more clarity in what is going on between President Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi.

From The Financial Times:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is preparing to replace his top general in what would be the biggest shake-up of Ukraine’s military command since Russia’s full-scale invasion began two years ago.

Zelenskyy on Monday offered Valeriy Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, a new role as a defence adviser but the general refused, according to four people familiar with the discussions.

Two of them said Zelenskyy had made clear to Zaluzhny that regardless of whether he took the role, he would be removed from his current position.

The four people said that while a decision had been made in Zelenskyy’s office to dismiss Zaluzhny, he may not be ousted for some time after reports of the plans appeared in Ukrainian media.

The president’s offer of a new role to the general follows months of speculation about his fate, fed by reports of tension between the two men.

Their strained relationship spilled into the open in November after Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive failed to achieve its ambitious goals of retaking lost territory and cutting off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea.

At the time, Zaluzhny said the war had reached a “stalemate”, leading the president’s office to castigate him for using the term.

On Monday, Zelenskyy’s spokesperson, Serhiy Nykyforov, and the defence ministry denied reports about Zaluzhny’s dismissal.

“Dear journalists, we immediately answer everyone: No, this is not true,” the ministry wrote on its Telegram channel without providing additional context. The president’s office declined to comment further on Tuesday.

The removal of Zaluzhny would also cause an uproar within Ukraine’s rank-and-file military and civil society, among whom he enjoys huge support.

In a Ukrainian poll released in December, 88 per cent of Ukrainians said they trusted Zaluzhny compared with 62 per cent who said they trusted Zelenskyy.

“This will have a very, very negative impact on the [morale] of the army,” Ukrainian military historian Mykhailo Zhyrokhov told Kyiv’s Radio NV, who added he believed the rumours to be “fabrication”.

Replacing Zaluzhny could also unnerve Ukraine’s western partners, including military officials who have worked closely with the general over the past two years to devise battlefield strategies.

The war is at a critical juncture as Kyiv waits to see whether it will receive billions of dollars’ worth of military and financial assistance from the US and the EU.

Zaluzhny has not commented on the reports of his dismissal. On Monday, however, he published an undated selfie with his chief of the general staff Serhiy Shaptala on Facebook in which both were wearing Ukrainian army sweatshirts.

According to all four people with knowledge of the issue, it is unclear who would replace Zaluzhny as commander-in-chief.

Possible candidates are Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, and Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the country’s military intelligence directorate. Both men are close to Zelenskyy.

More at the link!

Here’s some analysis from the president of the Kyiv School of Economics. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Everyone cited their anonymous sources in the government and military. Ukrainian media went on record saying the commander is fired.

Then an hour later the office of the president officially denied that Zaluzhny is fired. So media and opinion leaders apologized and reversed 2/ 

Anyway, FT writes that Zelenskyy is preparing to replace Zaluzhny nonetheless. He has served as commander-in-chief of the armed forces since 2021. This would be the biggest shake-up of Ukraine’s military leadership since the full-scale invasion began. 3/ 
FT says that Zelenskyy offered Zaluzhny a new role as a defense adviser, but Zaluzhny refused. Sources indicate Zelenskyy made clear Zaluzhny would be removed regardless. A decision was made to dismiss him, but it may be delayed due to the uproar the move has caused. 4/ 
For many months, there have been reports of mounting tensions between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny, coming to a head after Ukraine’s stalled counteroffensive last November. Zelenskyy’s office rebuked the general for terming the war a “stalemate.” 5/ 
Zaluzhny enjoys widespread popularity and trust among both Ukraine’s military and general population. His dismissal could negatively impact army morale at a critical juncture of the war. It could also unsettle Ukraine’s Western partners. 6/ 
However, I have personally heard very mixed opinions about how widespread this support is 7/ 
FT writes that potential replacements include ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky and military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov, both of whom are closer to Zelenskyy. Zaluzhny is credited with key Ukrainian successes against Russia. I have heard similar rumors too 8/ 
Source : 9X

Now we wait and see what happens.

Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) William Burns has published an essay in Foreign Affairs. Here are some excerpts.

The simple stars etched on the memorial wall at the CIA’s headquarters in Langley, Virginia, honor the 140 agency officers who gave their lives serving their country. The memorial offers an enduring reminder of countless acts of courage. Yet those instances of heroism and the CIA’s many quiet successes remain far less well known to the American public than the mistakes that have sometimes marred the agency’s history. The defining test for intelligence has always been to anticipate and help policymakers navigate profound shifts in the international landscape—the plastic moments that come along only a few times each century.

As President Joe Biden has reiterated, the United States faces one of those rare moments today, as consequential as the dawn of the Cold War or the post-9/11 period. China’s rise and Russia’s revanchism pose daunting geopolitical challenges in a world of intense strategic competition in which the United States no longer enjoys uncontested primacy and in which existential climate threats are mounting. Complicating matters further is a revolution in technology even more sweeping than the Industrial Revolution or the beginning of the nuclear age. From microchips to artificial intelligence to quantum computing, emerging technologies are transforming the world, including the profession of intelligence. In many ways, these developments make the CIA’s job harder than ever, giving adversaries powerful new tools to confuse us, evade us, and spy on us.

And yet as much as the world is changing, espionage remains an interplay between humans and technology. There will continue to be secrets that only humans can collect and clandestine operations that only humans can conduct. Technological advances, particularly in signals intelligence, have not made such human operations irrelevant, as some have predicted, but have instead revolutionized their practice. To be an effective twenty-first-century intelligence service, the CIA must blend a mastery of emerging technologies with the people-to-people skills and individual daring that have always been at the heart of our profession. That means equipping operations officers with the tools and tradecraft to conduct espionage in a world of constant technological surveillance—and equipping analysts with sophisticated artificial intelligence models that can digest mammoth amounts of open-source and clandestinely acquired information so that they can make their best human judgments.

At the same time, what the CIA does with the intelligence it gathers is also changing. “Strategic declassification,” the intentional public disclosure of certain secrets to undercut rivals and rally allies, has become an even more powerful tool for policymakers. Using it doesn’t mean recklessly jeopardizing the sources or methods used to collect the intelligence, but it does mean judiciously resisting the reflexive urge to keep everything classified. The U.S. intelligence community is also learning the increasing value of intelligence diplomacy, gaining a new understanding of how its efforts to bolster allies and counter foes can support policymakers.

This is a time of historic challenges for the CIA and the entire intelligence profession, with geopolitical and technological shifts posing as big a test as we’ve ever faced. Success will depend on blending traditional human intelligence with emerging technologies in creative ways. It will require, in other words, adapting to a world where the only safe prediction about change is that it will accelerate.

The post–Cold War era came to a definitive end the moment Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. I have spent much of the past two decades trying to understand the combustible combination of grievance, ambition, and insecurity that Russian President Vladimir Putin embodies. One thing I have learned is that it is always a mistake to underestimate his fixation on controlling Ukraine and its choices. Without that control, he believes it is impossible for Russia to be a great power or for him to be a great Russian leader. That tragic and brutish fixation has already brought shame to Russia and exposed its weaknesses, from its one-dimensional economy to its inflated military prowess to its corrupt political system. Putin’s invasion has also prompted breathtaking determination and resolve from the Ukrainian people. I have seen their courage firsthand on frequent wartime trips to Ukraine, punctuated by Russian air raids and vivid images of Ukrainian battlefield tenacity and ingenuity.

Putin’s war has already been a failure for Russia on many levels. His original goal of seizing Kyiv and subjugating Ukraine proved foolish and illusory. His military has suffered immense damage. At least 315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, two-thirds of Russia’s prewar tank inventory has been destroyed, and Putin’s vaunted decades-long military modernization program has been hollowed out. All this is a direct result of Ukrainian soldiers’ valor and skill, backed up by Western support. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy is suffering long-term setbacks, and the country is sealing its fate as China’s economic vassal. Putin’s overblown ambitions have backfired in another way, too: they have prompted NATO to grow larger and stronger.

Although Putin’s repressive grip does not seem likely to weaken anytime soon, his war in Ukraine is quietly corroding his power at home. The short-lived mutiny launched last June by the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin offered a glimpse at some of the dysfunction lurking behind Putin’s carefully polished image of control. For a leader who painstakingly crafted a reputation as the arbiter of order, Putin looked detached and indecisive as Prigozhin’s ragtag mutineers made their way up the road to Moscow. For many in the Russian elite, the question was not so much whether the emperor had no clothes as why he was taking so long to get dressed. The ultimate apostle of payback, Putin eventually settled his score with Prigozhin, who was killed in a suspicious plane crash two months to the day after starting his rebellion. But Prigozhin’s biting critique of the lies and military misjudgments at the core of Putin’s war, and of the corruption at the heart of the Russian political system, will not soon disappear.

This year is likely to be a tough one on the battlefield in Ukraine, a test of staying power whose consequences will go well beyond the country’s heroic struggle to sustain its freedom and independence. As Putin regenerates Russia’s defense production—with critical components from China, as well as weaponry and munitions from Iran and North Korea—he continues to bet that time is on his side, that he can grind down Ukraine and wear down its Western supporters. Ukraine’s challenge is to puncture Putin’s arrogance and demonstrate the high cost for Russia of continued conflict, not just by making progress on the frontlines but also by launching deeper strikes behind them and making steady gains in the Black Sea. In this environment, Putin might engage again in nuclear saber-rattling, and it would be foolish to dismiss escalatory risks entirely. But it would be equally foolish to be unnecessarily intimidated by them.

The key to success lies in preserving Western aid for Ukraine. At less than five percent of the U.S. defense budget, it is a relatively modest investment with significant geopolitical returns for the United States and notable returns for American industry. Keeping the arms flowing will put Ukraine in a stronger position if an opportunity for serious negotiations emerges. It offers a chance to ensure a long-term win for Ukraine and a strategic loss for Russia; Ukraine could safeguard its sovereignty and rebuild, while Russia would be left to deal with the enduring costs of Putin’s folly. For the United States to walk away from the conflict at this crucial moment and cut off support to Ukraine would be an own goal of historic proportions.

No one is watching U.S. support for Ukraine more closely than Chinese leaders. China remains the only U.S. rival with both the intent to reshape the international order and the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so. The country’s economic transformation over the past five decades has been extraordinary. It is one for which the Chinese people deserve great credit and one that the rest of the world has broadly supported in the belief that a prosperous China is a global good. The issue is not China’s rise in itself but the threatening actions that increasingly accompany it. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has begun his third presidential term with more power than any of his predecessors since Mao Zedong. Rather than use that power to reinforce and revitalize the international system that enabled China’s transformation, Xi is seeking to rewrite it. In the intelligence profession, we study carefully what leaders say. But we pay even more attention to what they do. Xi’s growing repression at home and his aggressiveness abroad, from his “no limits” partnership with Putin to his threats to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, are impossible to ignore.

So, too, however, is the impact of Western solidarity on Xi’s calculus about the risks of using force against Taiwan, which elected a new president, Lai Ching-te, in January. For Xi, a man inclined to see the United States as a fading power, American leadership on Ukraine has surely come as a surprise. The United States’ willingness to inflict and absorb economic pain to counter Putin’s aggression—and its ability to rally its allies to do the same—powerfully contradicted Beijing’s belief that America was in terminal decline. Closer to Chinese shores, the resilience of the American network of allies and partners across the Indo-Pacific has had a sobering effect on Beijing’s thinking. One of the surest ways to rekindle Chinese perceptions of American fecklessness and stoke Chinese aggressiveness would be to abandon support for Ukraine. Continued material backing for Ukraine doesn’t come at the expense of Taiwan; it sends an important message of U.S. resolve that helps Taiwan.

Competition with China is taking place against the backdrop of thick economic interdependence and commercial ties between it and the United States. Such connections have served the two countries and the rest of the world remarkably well, but they have also created critical vulnerabilities and serious risks for American security and prosperity. The COVID-19 pandemic made clear to every government the danger of being dependent on any one country for life-saving medical supplies, just as Russia’s war in Ukraine has made clear to Europe the risks of being dependent on one country for energy. In today’s world, no country wants to find itself at the mercy of a single supplier of critical minerals and technologies—especially if that supplier is intent on weaponizing those dependencies. As American policymakers have argued, the best answer is to sensibly “de-risk” and diversify—securing the United States’ supply chains, protecting its technological edge, and investing in its industrial capacity.

In this volatile, divided world, the weight of the “hedging middle” is growing. Democracies and autocracies, developed economies and developing ones, and countries across the global South are increasingly intent on diversifying their relationships to maximize their options. They see little benefit and plenty of risk in sticking to monogamous geopolitical relationships with either the United States or China. More countries are likely to be attracted to an “open” geopolitical relationship status (or at least an “it’s complicated” one), following the United States’ lead on some issues while cultivating relations with China. And if past is precedent, Washington ought to be attentive to rivalries between the growing number of middle powers, which have historically helped spark collisions between major ones.

Much more at the link!

Avdiivka:

South of Vuhledar:

Orcs looting a church in Mykilske, at the zero line, just south of Vuhledar. They can be seen entering the altar area, while the officer ordered looting of all icons. The individual filming fully understands the consequences of his actions but proceeds to steal the klobuk.

It is hard to date this footage, however, given the mention of kamikaze drones which started being used far more often in the past year, it is reasonable to assume that the video is fairly recent.

One can only imagine how many more churches the russian army looted all across Ukraine.

 

 

Russian occupied portions of Ukraine and Russia itself:

Orcs looting a church in Mykilske, at the zero line, just south of Vuhledar. They can be seen entering the altar area, while the officer ordered looting of all icons. The individual filming fully understands the consequences of his actions but proceeds to steal the klobuk.

It is hard to date this footage, however, given the mention of kamikaze drones which started being used far more often in the past year, it is reasonable to assume that the video is fairly recent.

One can only imagine how many more churches the russian army looted all across Ukraine.

Russia:

Many channels report of a massive failure of the Russian internet. Especially people in major cities such as Moscow trying to connect to .ru domains report that no sides are loading. Almost all mobile providers and operators are affected.

Source: t.me/breakingmash/5

#Russia

As if it the loss of large parts of the Russian internet was not enough, the Ukrainian Intelligence “GUR” reports that it once again disabled another Russian cyber target. This time the servers of the Russian Ministry of Defense have been hit.

The leaked docs show the documentation process and methodology, but it is likely that more sensitive information got retrieved as well. The worst part, however, is that the Russian counter intelligence must assume the worst and turn their systems completely upside down. That’s a ton of work.

According to the docs, the software which was breached was approved by the FSB.

Source: t.me/DIUkraine/3389

#Ukraine #Russia #CyberWar

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s cartoon show’s official TikTok!

@patronthedog

Вже бачили вчорашню серію?😻 Хто ще не встиг подивитись – лінк у шапці профілю😌 #песпатронмультфільм

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron the Dog

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Have you seen yesterday’s episode yet? 😻 For those who haven’t had a chance to watch it yet, the link is in the profile header 😌 #песпатронмультфільм

And here it is!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

21Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    The bomb news is good for Ukraine and maybe also a little nice PR for Boeing, who could kinda use it.

    This mishegas around Zaluzhny is uncomfy, and I wonder how it’s gonna go. It would seem odd to me that Zelenskyy’s spokesperson denied the rumors yesterday if they are not actually rumors and they are intending to dismiss him. And the way it’s being framed in so many news stories is weird and cat-fighty and I don’t like it. Pointing out that Zaluzhny has higher approval than Zelenskyy seems unfair, beside the point, and kind of petty.

    This pupper is ready to eat putin’s face off.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  2. 2.

    wjca

    @Alison Rose: It would seem odd to me that Zelenskyy’s spokesperson denied the rumors yesterday if they are not actually rumors and they are intending to dismiss him.

    It actually seems rather routine, in any country, and in any part of government, that sacking someone is “not even under consideration” right up until the instant that the guy is fired.

    It does make it challenging to distinguish accurate rumors from disinformation.  But I can see the reasons why it would be standard practice.

  3. 3.

    wjca

    And, since I haven’t said it recently, thank you again, Adam.  These reports are invaluable to anyone trying to understand what is happening.

  4. 4.

    MomSense

    I just left a concert of the Portland Symphony Orchestra.  The theme for tonight was compositions of  resistance and the first two composers were Mykola Lysenko and Valentin Silvestrov (my DIL performed in the Silvestrov).  The audience cheered for Ukraine.  Slava Ukraini!!

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Of all of Biden’s cabinet appointments, I think William Burns is the best by some distance.

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    @MomSense: In the department of everything old is new again, Lysenko wrote all his opera libretti in Ukrainian, and refused translation. So when Tchaikovsky was impressed with Taras Bulba and wanted to stage it in Moscow, Lysenko refused to translate it into Russian or to allow it to be performed in Russian, so it was never staged there. Note that it was written in 1912.

  10. 10.

    Timill

    @Gin & Tonic: Um, what? Tchaikovsky died in 1893…

    Ah: from Wikipedia

    • The story was the basis of an opera, Taras Bulba, written between 1880-1891, by Ukrainian composer Mykola Lysenko. It was published in 1913, and first performed in 1924 (12 years after the composer’s death). The opera’s libretto was written by Mykhailo Starytsky, the composer’s cousin. Tchaikovsky had been impressed with it, and wanted to stage it in Moscow, but Lysenko insisted that it be performed in Ukrainian (not translated into Russian), so Tchaikovsky wasn’t able to get it staged in Moscow.
  12. 12.

    Freemark

    I’m willing to bet MacArthur was more popular than Truman. We know how that worked out for MacArthur.

  13. 13.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: So in that wiki link from @Timill: , it also says Lysenko and all Ukrainians were forbidden from publishing anything in Ukrainian!   Speaking of old being new.

    But I don’t quite get it.  It said Lysenko was working in a Russia-controlled country, PRE ru revolution.  So Lviv was part of Austro Hungary, right?  But everything east of there was under ru?

    No need to answer let alone get me fully straight here, I’m just surprised.  Also glad you have a shared better understanding of Bandera.

    Jiminy Crickets.

  15. 15.

    West of the Rockies

    I hope the US is fucking with Russia the same way that shithole country fucks with everyone else.  Malware, computer hacking, etc.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @sab: IMHO, it’s been a mixed bag.

    I have not been impressed by Blinken at State. I find the vocal enthusiasm (w/ an obvious eye for the press & Congress) w/ which Raimondo has prosecuted the tech war w/ the PRC to be terrible policy & frightening politics. I think Trade Rep. Katherine Tai’s pro-labor economic nationalism decidedly out of step w/ the US’ strategic & economic interests, & US’ partners & rivals alike are wondering aloud what is the point of her job. I think a pro-labor reorientation to trade policy has been long over due, but Tai’s intransigence when it comes to any kind of trade negotiations has made her office irrelevant for promoting labor interests one way or the other.  I thought Linda Thomas-Greenfield would bring some heterodox POV to the foreign policy team as ambassador to the UN, but instead she has been relegated to regurgitating standard US talking points wrt the ROW that has not changed since the GWB years.

    Merrick Garland at Justices has been controversial, certainly in the prosecution of Trump’s crimes, but also IMO in not reining in the FBI’s racial profiling & harassment/persecution against Chinese nationals & Asian Americans in STEM fields & academia under the “China Initiative”, or similar policies that continued the initiative in all but name even after the it was shut down. This has resulted in a brain drain of high end Chinese & Chinese American STEM talent to the PRC & other countries in the world, surely not in the US’ interest.

    I don’t think Homeland Security as improved much under Alexander Mayorkas. The US is deporting more asylum seekers than ever. While some of the worst human rights abuses at the border under Trump seem to have stopped, DHS remains the most Fascist-sympathetic part of the natsec apparatus.

    OTOH, Janet Yellen has been outstanding at Treasury. Lloyd Austen has been competent at Defense (the week of AWOL notwithstanding), though the disastrous waste of the defense procurement needs deep reform more than technocratic management. Avril Haines as DNI has also been competent. Jennifer Granholm at Energy, Tom Vilsack at Agriculture, Deb Haaland at Interior, Pete Buttigieg at Transportation, & Xavier Becerra at HHS all seem to be doing their jobs w/o fanfare or scandal. Denis McDonough was such a rising natsec star during the Obama Administration, seems a bit of a waste at the VA (perhaps too much of an Obama loyalist?).

    One thing I have noticed is how little visibility Biden’s cabinet secretaries receive at all outside of Blinken, Austen, Burns, & occasionally Haines, Raimondo (invariably in relation w/ the PRC) & Tai. I remember there was some tension during Obama’s 1st term that the WH was purposefully hogging all of the limelight, but my impression has been that it is much worse for most of the cabinet secretaries under Biden.

    The other striking thing is that there has been zero turnover since the cabinet secretaries had been confirmed. Perhaps out of a fear that the GOP in the Senate would block the confirmation of their replacements? Continuity is a good thing, but leading departments are also stressful & often thankless jobs. People burn out. They do not always become more effective the longer they stay on.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    A couple of useful threads on the Zelenskyy-Zalushny contretemp, that dives deeper than the gossip porn level media coverage to the underlying dynamics & potential impacts.

    From John Helin:

    Lets try this again. So, if the reports are correct it seems that Zalushnyi is going to become, at least partially, the scapegoat for the multitude of problems and failures that have emerged in the Ukrainian military apparatus since the start of the full-scale invasion.

    …

    From Mick Ryan:

    The past 48 hours have seen much speculation about President Zelenskyy having decided to remove General Zaluzhnyi from his appointment as Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Of course, this is not a new story. But what might be the implications? 1/25

    …

  21. 21.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Whatever the debatable correctness or incorrectness of Zelenskyy’s senior military leadership decisions, to my mind this has now become only, and exclusively, an issue of civilian control over the military. The UA has no civic right to push back on such decisions, especially by means of the epidemic of adversely-slanted leaks now very clearly in progress.

    Ukraine must survive. But the meaning of its survival is different depending on whether it survives as a civilian democracy that weathers a brutal and unjust war, or whether its civilian politics become corrupted by military shows of force.
    We are not there now, but there is a great and terrible risk associated with these “shenanigans.” Nothing is as corrosive of democracy as war. The imperatives of victory can seem to transcend “mere politics,” but in the end, victory by Ukraine must be—and remain— a defense of something worth defending.

    Zaluzhny’s duty is clear: he should resign his post immediately while urging maximum support by everyone for the government. If he’s lost the trust of the political leadership, it doesn’t matter whether or not this was a fair or unfair judgment of his tenure. I devoutly hope that he sees this.

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