Ship wreck of the day!
Warriors of the special unit "Group 13" of the @DI_Ukraine destroyed the missile corvette "Ivanovets" of the russian Black Sea Fleet.
As a result of a number of direct hits to the hull, the corvette was damaged, rolled to the stern, and sank. The value of… pic.twitter.com/JZwh8aggn0
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 1, 2024
Ship wreck of the day!
Warriors of the special unit “Group 13” of the @DI_Ukraine destroyed the missile corvette “Ivanovets” of the russian Black Sea Fleet.
As a result of a number of direct hits to the hull, the corvette was damaged, rolled to the stern, and sank. The value of the ship is approximately $60–70 million.
Nice job, warriors!
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate GUR says its Group 13 special unit overnight destroyed Russia’s Ivanovets missile ship with sea drones, sharing a video purporting to show the attack off the coast of occupied Crimea. GUR says the warship “rolled to the stern and sank.” pic.twitter.com/vk5DhuWARe
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 1, 2024
Ukraine's spy boss, Lt. Gen. Kyrulo Budanov, told me that the Ivanovets was hit with six MAGURA V5 sea drones that sent it to the bottom of the Black Sea.
He vows more such attacks and has a message for Moscow.
"Get ready," he said.https://t.co/ujrWHTQo0l— Howard Altman (@haltman) February 1, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The EU’s decision on €50 billion for Ukraine means that Ukrainians have financial guarantees for social stability – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
1 February 2024 – 23:15
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
We continue this week with good dynamics for Ukraine – with events that are contributing to the country’s strength.
Today the EU has made a long-awaited decision: €50 billion for Ukraine. A support program. A long-term program for four years. This means Ukrainians have financial guarantees for our social stability. The decision was adopted today at the meeting of the European Council – at the level of leaders. The Ukrainian team and our friends in the EU have been working quite thoroughly and actively for this decision – through various channels and at various levels. The key thing is that this decision is now in place and that it is a unanimous decision of Europe. I thank all our friends who helped, and, of course, our entire team, Ukrainian international relations officials: the government, the Office, everyone who was involved. I raised this issue of support for Ukraine with every European leader in my talks. I am grateful to each of the 27 EU countries and the heads of European institutions. Now it is important that the distribution of these funds is carried out similarly to the previous format of support: the first two tranches require a larger amount – 18 billion euros per year, and then the state’s resilience will be greater. The teams of Ukraine and the European Union will work on this issue. Today, in my address to the European Council, I also reminded about our other two goals for the year. This is the creation of an appropriate Ukraine Assistance Fund within the European Peace Facility to maintain our defense capabilities and our defensive actions at the front. This is also the preparation of this year’s Global Peace Summit in Switzerland – an event the organization of which I have invited all leaders of the European community to join.
The second thing worth mentioning today.
The release of our guys from captivity, which took place yesterday, was a very emotional event. Now all 207 guys are in the process of rehabilitation and recovery. Each is being provided with all the necessary assistance. Everyone is already in touch with their families. Families and friends can visit them all. And every time our people are back home, it proves that Ukraine is working to bring everyone back. We do not forget anyone. Sometimes the exchange can be significantly complicated by different situations. Some people sometimes say that the exchange is even impossible. But we are looking for ways. We are looking for intermediaries. And I am grateful to everyone who helps Ukraine. The Ukrainian team is continuing its work on the next exchanges.
Thirdly.
We continue to work on security commitments for Ukraine. Today, another round of negotiations took place in Berlin – we are preparing the relevant agreement. I am grateful to the German side for its pragmatic and at the same time value-based approach. We are also working with other states and we can already see that we are achieving a very extensive and comprehensive system of security commitments. In all those areas that are critical for the normal life of any democratic country. And there is a lot of work to be done on each such agreement and its implementation. With this system of security commitments, Ukraine can now create a new model for ensuring the protection of the states of the free world while they are outside of effective security alliances. And, of course, we are working to make progress with NATO for our country – we have already decided on Ukraine’s position on the expected results of the NATO Summit in Washington this year.
Fourthly.
Today, I signed several new decrees on honoring our warriors with state awards. 294 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Different brigades, different directions. But equally vital battles. The bravery without which Ukraine would not have been able to withstand. The strength that ensures Ukraine’s independence and its own path in this world. We must be grateful to each and every one of our warriors – all the defenders, all those who strengthen our defense and help it. In total, since February 24, almost 70 thousand of our warriors have been honored with state awards. To be precise, 69,945 have been honored as of today. All elements of our Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine. The Army. The National Guard. The Security Service of Ukraine. The National Police. The State Border Guard Service. The State Emergency Service. The Foreign Intelligence Service. The Department of the State Protection. The State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection. And, of course, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. Today, by the way, the guys have achieved another hit – this time at sea. A spectacular addition to the Russian submarine fleet. Thank you!
And the fifth thing that is important.
Today, Europe has demonstrated exactly the kind of unity that is needed. 27 countries – together. The EU institutions – in full cooperation. This is a clear signal to Moscow that Europe will withstand and that Europe will not be broken by any destructive waves that the Kremlin always comes up with. But at the same time, it is a clear signal across the Atlantic that Europe is taking on commitments. Security commitments. Strong commitments. We are waiting for America’s decisions.
I thank everyone who stands with freedom! I thank everyone who adds their personal strength to the strength of the whole of Ukraine! We can win!
We must win!
Glory to Ukraine!
Yes, you read that right. The EU finally got the stick out of Orban’s tuchas.
We have a deal. #Unity
All 27 leaders agreed on an additional €50 billion support package for Ukraine within the EU budget.
This locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for #Ukraine.
EU is taking leadership & responsibility in support for Ukraine; we know what is…
— Charles Michel (@CharlesMichel) February 1, 2024
The Financial Times has the details:
The EU has agreed a deal on a €50bn financial support package for Ukraine after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán caved to pressure from his fellow leaders and rescinded his veto on the aid.
The compromise, reached at the start of an emergency EU summit, came after an unprecedented campaign of pressure on Orbán, the bloc’s only member that has kept friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin since he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said Thursday’s agreement showed “Europe’s unwavering commitment to supporting Ukraine”.
“We know Ukraine is fighting for us . . . so we will provide them with much-needed stability,” she said. “This sent a very strong message to Putin.”
Officials had warned of an irreparable rupture within the bloc if Hungary’s leader maintained his veto on the €50bn package, which Kyiv says is critical for its financial stability as it fights back against Russia’s invasion.
Orbán’s refusal to budge in recent weeks has led the bloc to test different approaches, from offering financial incentives to exploring the economic consequences of a complete cut-off from EU funding.
It also prompted discussions among some capitals about the possibility of stripping Budapest of its voting rights.
Charles Michel, president of the European Council, who chairs the leaders’ discussions, said the compromise “locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine”.
The agreement includes a provision for EU leaders to hold an annual debate on the implementation of the aid package and the possibility for a review in two years, if all member states agree.
“The stakes were really high for us if we had lost this,” said one senior EU official. “A really dark path.”
Orbán said he accepted the offer after negotiating a “control mechanism, which guarantees a rational use of the monies”.
“I am glad that the reaction of markets and players of the economy is already positive on this agreement,” he added.
The European parliament must now sign off on the increase to the EU’s budget that includes the €50bn for Ukraine. The vote is set to take place at the end of February, which means the earliest the money can start flowing to Ukraine is in March, EU officials said.
The EU aid package, which will fund Kyiv over four years, is critical to keeping Ukraine’s economy afloat as the Joe Biden administration has failed to win US Congressional support for its own $60bn support package. Ukrainian officials have warned of a potential budget crisis if western aid is stopped altogether.
Much more at the link.
The cost:
Horrible new once again.. another friend was killed on the battlefield.
Combat medic from Germany 🇩🇪 .. 36 years old.
Rest in peace Snake, you won’t be forgotten, we’ll keep fighting for you, your watch is over now.
🇩🇪🇺🇦🕯️ pic.twitter.com/inWda709iy
— Black Maple Company (@BlackMapleCo) February 1, 2024
The reason:
Meet Alona, call sign "Vitaminka".
When the russia's full-scale invasion started, she was only 17 years old. At the age of 18, she joined the AFU. Alona is now 19 and serves as a senior combat medic.
"I'd like to start a family in the future, give birth to children, and not… pic.twitter.com/kv1snh6Zu8
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 1, 2024
Meet Alona, call sign “Vitaminka”.
When the russia’s full-scale invasion started, she was only 17 years old. At the age of 18, she joined the AFU. Alona is now 19 and serves as a senior combat medic.
“I’d like to start a family in the future, give birth to children, and not spend my whole life in the army and at war. But so far, the reality is like this, and I came to help, to save the lives of her brothers-in-arms,” says Alona.
📸: 107th @TDF_UA Brigade
You can’t even imagine how many defenders have told me that they don’t want to fight anyone or kill anyone, they just want a peaceful life for their family and children! At the same time they say, I don’t have much choice, I have to fight, as if I don’t, my children and family…
— Harri_EST🇪🇪🇺🇦 (@Harri_Est) January 31, 2024
You can’t even imagine how many defenders have told me that they don’t want to fight anyone or kill anyone, they just want a peaceful life for their family and children! At the same time they say, I don’t have much choice, I have to fight, as if I don’t, my children and family wont have future😣
CNN published an essay by General Zaluzhnyi today. Many people have interpreted it as a shot across Zelenskyy’s bow in regard to Zaluzhnyi being replaced. According to CNN has noted that it was written before the expected announcement, but it is unclear that means before President Zelenskyy informed GEN Zaluzhnyi he was going to replace him or after their meeting Monday, but before a formal announcement is made. Here are some excerpts: (emphasis mine)
Editor’s Note: Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2021. This article was written before an expected announcement of his dismissal. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read a detailed CNN analysis of this article here, and the full essay here.
CNN —The Second World War drew to a close almost 80 years ago, but its legacy in defining the strategic vision of war persists to this day.
Whatever remarkable advances there have been in the fields of aviation, missile technology and space-based assets, for instance, the concept of victory remains unchanged: to destroy the enemy and to capture or liberate territory.
And yet, each war is unique.
And there is no greater challenge facing the military commander, in my opinion, than understanding – in good time – how each war is shaped differently.
Firstly, by technological progress, which determines the development of weapons and equipment.
And, secondly, by political conditions at home and abroad, and the economic environment.
Victory needs a unique strategy and follows a unique logic.
It is well known by now that a central driver of this war is the development of unmanned weapons systems.
They are proliferating at a breathtaking pace and the scope of their applications grows ever wider.
Crucially, it is these unmanned systems – such as drones – along with other types of advanced weapons, that provide the best way for Ukraine to avoid being drawn into a positional war, where we do not possess the advantage.
But while mastery of such technologies is key, it is not the only factor influencing current strategy.
We must contend with a reduction in military support from key allies, grappling with their own political tensions.
Our partners’ stocks of missiles, air defense interceptors and ammunition for artillery is becoming exhausted, due to the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine, but also from a global shortage of propellant charges.
Russia, taking note of how developments in the Middle East have distracted international attention, might seek to provoke further conflicts elsewhere.
The weakness of the international sanctions’ regime means Russia, in partnership with certain others, is still able to deploy its military-industrial complex in pursuit of a war of attrition against us.
We must acknowledge the significant advantage enjoyed by the enemy in mobilizing human resources and how that compares with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures.
Finally, we remain hamstrung by the imperfections of the regulatory framework in our country, as well as the partial monopolization of the defense industry. These lead to production bottlenecks – in ammunition, for instance – which further deepen Ukraine’s dependence on its allies for supplies.
Our combat experience, particularly since 2022, is unique – but in the interests of victory, we must constantly find new ways and new capabilities to help us gain an advantage over the enemy.
Perhaps the number one priority here is mastery of an entire arsenal of (relatively) cheap, modern and highly effective, unmanned vehicles and other technological means.
Already such assets allow commanders to monitor the situation on the battlefield in real time, day and night, and in all weather conditions.
But not only that.
They provide real-time intelligence allowing the adjustment of fire around the clock, without pause – giving us the ability to deliver high-precision strikes against enemy targets in forward positions and in depth.
In short, this means nothing less than the wholesale redesign of battlefield operations – and the abandoning of outdated, stereotypical thinking.
New operations might include digital field creation, radio-electronic environment control, or a combined operation using attack drones and cyber assets.
Such operations will be coordinated and conducted under a single concept and plan.
Crucially, the aim will not always be solely combat in focus.
It might seek to reduce the economic capabilities of the enemy, or to isolate, or wear him down.
Attack operations can have psychological objectives.
That said, for the time being, the priority remains improving the situation on the battlefield.
And here, technology boasts an undoubted superiority over tradition.
The challenge for our armed forces cannot be underestimated.
It is to create a completely new state system of technological rearmament.
Taking everything into account at this moment, we think the creation of such a system could be achieved in five months.
Our partners are of the same view.
This time will be spent creating an appropriate organizational structure, filling and equipping positions, providing training and support, building out the supporting infrastructure and logistics, and developing a doctrinal framework.
In conclusion, in 2024, we must focus our main efforts in three areas.
Creating a system to provide our armed forces with high-tech assets.
Introducing a new philosophy of training and warfare which takes account of restrictions in assets and how they can be deployed.
And mastering new combat capabilities as soon as possible.
We already possess capabilities to eliminate the enemy and ensure the existence of statehood.
To me, Gen Zaluzhny’s new essay from today is largely a message:
“I know I have broad popular support in the country and that my dismissal will trigger an uproar. I will not leave unless I’m ordered to. I have a plan and a to-do list for war. I see a way to go and I say it in…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 1, 2024
To me, Gen Zaluzhny’s new essay from today is largely a message:
“I know I have broad popular support in the country and that my dismissal will trigger an uproar. I will not leave unless I’m ordered to. I have a plan and a to-do list for war. I see a way to go and I say it in the public – and now it’s your turn to decide what’s next.”
Tatarigami and his team have a new assessment out. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
In late 2022 – early 2023, amid Ukrainian artillery shortages, Frontelligence Insight observed a pattern: Russian forces, due to limited Ukrainian counteraction, occupied stationary artillery positions for long periods. Our team now notes the resurgence of this pattern. 🧵Thread: pic.twitter.com/bEEtcMbrCg
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 1, 2024
2/ In January, our team recorded 14 concentrations of artillery and enemy forces, echoing Spring 2023 observations. In this example, vehicle revetments were stocked with supplies and vehicles. We have monitored this specific operational site persisting for multiple weeks3/ Importantly, this doesn’t mean a total loss of Ukraine’s counter-battery capabilities. Multiple OSINT projects consistently document Russian artillery losses. Nevertheless, the prevailing pattern highlights a present challenge of inadequate counter-battery fire.4/ This allows Russia to employ a familiar tactic: the complete destruction of urban areas, making them indefensible and asserting a claim of “liberation” afterward. Mar’inka is a good example, where the entire town was obliterated5/ Based on our observations, numerous artillery pieces are positioned at distances ranging from 15 to 24 kilometers away from the frontline, rendering them beyond the practical reach of many small FPVs—unless equipped with retransmitting drones to boost their signal.6/ Despite several successful FPV engagements with enemy artillery, these cases are limited and lack the widespread influence needed to significantly impact the overall situation. We anticipate a shift over time, but at this moment the impact is relatively small.7/ In summary, Ukraine faces increasing challenges countering Russian artillery, providing Russia an opportunity to inflict significant damage and losses. Urgent EU or US measures, such as supplying additional artillery and ammunition, are crucial to mitigate the problem.8/ Kindly like and share the first message of our thread. Consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support, and maintaining quality without financing is still challenging for us. Thank you
Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
RussiaNoContext channel publishes footage from Kherson Oblast’s left bank (occupied) where a Russian Grad launcher was hit by an FPV drone while deploying. Not much left from the system. The comment is as follows:
⁰“FPV drones have become increasingly active in the skies,… pic.twitter.com/F8swRTOgDc— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 1, 2024
RussiaNoContext channel publishes footage from Kherson Oblast’s left bank (occupied) where a Russian Grad launcher was hit by an FPV drone while deploying. Not much left from the system. The comment is as follows:
“FPV drones have become increasingly active in the skies, attacking anything that gets in their way. They chase fighters, cars and even combat vehicles. In this situation, the BM-21 Grad took a position and was preparing to fire with a full ammo, but it was attacked by an enemy kamikaze drone, causing an explosion and the complete destruction of the vehicle and its crew.”
Also notable is distance from the shore (10km) that drone had to cover.
https://t.me/russianocontext/1933
Belbek air field, Russian occupied Sevastopol, Crimea:
/5. Regarding the strikes on the Belbek military airfield near Sevastopol from a source who often publishes information that is later confirmed. However, I still do not recommend taking these comments at face value.
«🚀Regarding the missile attack on the Belbek airfield in…
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 1, 2024
/5. Regarding the strikes on the Belbek military airfield near Sevastopol from a source who often publishes information that is later confirmed. However, I still do not recommend taking these comments at face value.
«🚀Regarding the missile attack on the Belbek airfield in Crimea.
Yesterday, January 31, 2024, a missile attack was carried out on the Belbek airfield near Sevastopol.
Seven British-French-made Storm Shadow/SCALP were launched towards the airfield. Four were shot down by air defense forces, three hit the target.
Between 17:31 and 17:42, two missiles hit the command post of the 38th Fighter Aviation Regiment (military unit 80159, Belbek). Another hit the airfield communications point.
I cannot confirm the information disseminated by other Telegram channels regarding the destruction of aircrafts. Some planes perhaps have suffered some collateral damage, but nothing more.
According to available information, 10 military personnel were killed as a result of the strike. Among the dead is the commander of the aviation squadron of the fighter regiment, Alexander Tatarenko.
It is worth noting that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are using new flight routes for cruise missiles. This time (unlike previous ones), most of the missiles passed over the water surface of the Black Sea. Air defence work on Ukrainian missiles took place directly above the airfield itself.»
https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/486
The modern interpretation of the famous painting "Cossacks are Writing a Letter to the Turkish Sultan" by Ukrainian painter Ilya Repin.
📸: 53rd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/tEpHufbL5h
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 1, 2024
That’s enough for today.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Never, never, never give up.
📷: Anton Sheveliov, Ministry of Defence pic.twitter.com/8RP8rdayez
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 1, 2024
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
Thank you Adam. No reply needed.
Carlo Graziani
I sincerely hope that Ponomarenko is wrong about Zaluzhny’s intentions. If this is really where he’s going, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to demand his resignation or fire him publicly, to preserve civilian control of the military.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: Especially as I’m not sure that essay is all that coherent. I need to think on it a bit.
Adam L Silverman
@AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team: You’re most welcome.
SpaceUnit
Nice work, Group 13. Congrats.
And a life well lived, Snake. Rest In Peace.
Martin
That video is really impressive. Interesting that despite seeing the drone approaching, they couldn’t manage to hit it. I have to assume the USN would not have had that problem.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Gin & Tonic
The other night, after my bedtime, in the context of a discussion of the composer Mykola Lysenko, Lyrebird raised a question about the Austro-Hungarian Empire and its extent. While it lasted, that Empire controlled a swath of western Ukraine, known as Halychyna (Galicia), which is now the oblasts of L’viv and Ivano-Frankivsk. Their area of control also included Zakarpattia, which is not considered part of Halychyna, and extended into current Ternopil and Rivne oblasts. Halychyna, and L’viv in particular, became the epicenter of Ukrainian nationalism after the Russian and Ukrainian revolutions of 1917 – which movement included many men who had served as officers in Austrian military units pre-1917. But this isn’t particularly relevant to Lysenko, who was born near Poltava and lived mostly in Kyiv, which were part of the Russian Empire pre-revolution and the USSR after.
There was also a comment about Bandera, which seemed really out of context. Bandera was a complex and controversial figure, whom I largely refrain from discussing in any historical context – other than to note the oddity of russia’s continued obsession with him, three-quarters of a century after his assassination *at their own hand.
Lyrebird
@Carlo Graziani: I’m just a viewer in the peanut gallery, but Ponamorenko’s summary seems too far into “the medium is the message” territory or something, and doesn’t do full justice to the content of what the general took the time to say. I have changed Adam’s bolding below. When I read “inability of state institutions…” I thought, oh no, here comes the shot, but he then acknowledges the genuine difficulty the elected leadership faces – like that many Ukrainians do not want a general mobilization.
That second bit in the quote sounds much more like someone who really wants to find a workable solution than someone who is saying “you better not try to replace me,” but hey I have never met him. I have never set foot in his country!
I have set foot in a number of EU countries, and I wince when I hear the level of the anti-corruption pressure – don’t get me wrong, I know corruption is bad! But the country that hosts both the NATO HQ and the EU HQ is kinda well known for being far from corruption free. Anyhow, that pressure puts Pres Zel. in more of a bind, he’s not just the beacon of hope for Ukrainians, he is the press agent for the country bringing in the international support… seems like that role has him more likely to react to analyses by Gen Zal.
Who knows. May the FSMs noodles tangle up all the equipment of the aggressor and may the war end soon!
Thank you @Adam L Silverman: for your work.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Hey, thanks G&T! Sorry I am better at scrambled thinking than any other kind. I had not known this:
..about the extent of that empire. I also had not known until you and Timill talked about Lysenko that the ru’s attempts to stamp out Ukrainian literature and language generally were so long standing. Okay I will stop detailing all the things I don’t know, since that might not be bounded.
Why I mention B is beccause learning the above about more decades of hostile rule of Kyiv (eta: by invaders) just left me thinking, yeah no wonder small-n nationalism – like defending their identity as a nation, not extremism – is such a big deal to Ukrainians!
Bill Arnold
@Martin:
Six drones: “Ukraine’s spy boss, Lt. Gen. Kyrulo Budanov, told me that the Ivanovets was hit with six MAGURA V5 sea drones that sent it to the bottom of the Black Sea.”
(Don’t know if all six hit, or if that was a misinterpretation.)
The USN, and all navies, really, should be increasingly concerned about this sort of asymmetrical attack using swarms.
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold: This might be relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002#Exercise_action
Red received an ultimatum from Blue, essentially a surrender document, demanding a response within 24 hours. Thus warned of Blue’s approach, Red used a fleet of small boats to determine the position of Blue’s fleet by the second day of the exercise. In a preemptive strike, Red launched a massive salvo of cruise missiles that overwhelmed the Blue forces’ electronic sensors and destroyed sixteen warships: one aircraft carrier, ten cruisers and five of Blue’s six amphibious ships. An equivalent success in a real conflict would have resulted in the deaths of over 20,000 service personnel. Soon after the cruise missile offensive, another significant portion of Blue’s navy was “sunk” by an armada of small Red boats, which carried out both conventional and suicide attacks that capitalized on Blue’s inability to detect them as well as expected.
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: russia has been attempting to stamp out the Ukrainian language for centuries. Nothing new under the sun.
The weakening of the OUN, splitting it into the Bandera and Melnyk factions, by means of assassinating its undisputed leader, Evhen Konovalets, was, I hate to admit it, a real strategic masterstroke by the NKVD. But that, as you call it, small-n nationalism, dates back to the Polish occupation of Halychyna, when Bandera was finishing high school.
ColoradoGuy
Astonishing infrared footage from the sea drones, transmitted in real time via satellite link. Since the drones blew up at the target, the data had to be transmitted in real time, and they were clearly human-guided, although AI is possible but unlikely. Yes, this changes naval warfare.
Also a stunning propaganda video. The Ukrainians are masters of the medium.
Alison Rose
I appreciate him saying it so bluntly. Even if this waiting is akin to watching a pot and waiting for it to boil…except in this case, the stove isn’t on. At least the EU managed to get off their fucking asses. Speaker Johnson’s is apparently welded to his chair.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Bill Arnold
@Chetan Murthy:
Several decades ago, I played a lot of games of Ogre, a hex-paper/dice war game inspired in part by Keith Laumer’s Bolo stories about giant (eventually) sentient tanks. We were fascinated with swarm attacks vs the Ogre (the giant robot tank in the game).
The game was evenly matched, but that was due to rules tuning by the game designer; in reality, one side (not, currently, the Russian Black Sea fleet) has an advantage.
Chetan Murthy
@Bill Arnold: back in college I used to play a lot of GEV and Ogre too! Ha! Can’t say I remember much: I was pretty much an automaton back then. But what Van Riper did back
then[eta] in 2002, it’s really coming true today, and not just on the water: the way that Russia is using massive swarms of cruise missiles and drones to overwhelm UA’s air defenses is a part of it too. Warfare is changing before our eyes, and I really do fear that our military is gonna get caught short. Not just because of having the wrong weapons, but for lack of a defense industrial base to resupply at scaleETA: or, to put it another way, it’ll be *something* alright, it’ll be *something* if North Korea can outproduce the EU. Damn, that’ll be something.
eversor
As someone who’s come about to supporting Christianity as we won’t deal with it…. I side with Russia now. Defund Ukraine, keep the churches money flowing to Russia as they have since the 90s. Let us have Trump again. Give Leonoard Leo all of it. That is all I want. Let us do this. Once we are a full Christian nation we can argue about the mistakes but I support Christianity now so Ukraine must go.
wombat probability cloud
@Gin & Tonic: I’m very grateful for the education received from you and others here about Ukrainian culture and history (not to mention the present). It’s why I return every night. But, given my background as an evolutionary biologist who had a Czech major professor, you’ll understand why my hackles go up every time I see the surname Lysenko. I’m gradually getting reconditioned as I learn about the composer. Thanks!
wombat probability cloud
@Chetan Murthy: There’s a plausible description in Ministry of the Future, by Robinson (2020) about the power of drone swarms, too.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: The attack on the USS Cole in Aden should have been warning enough.
YY_Sima Qian
@Lyrebird: Or, Zaluzhny is a consummate politician who knows how to deliver somewhat veiled criticism (after all, the civilian government is in charge of the mobilization of the Ukrainian defense industry), but also a patriot that does not want to give fodder to Russian propaganda.
In any case, when I read in an interview a couple of months ago that Zelenskyy described himself as having a “working relationship” (not even a “good” working relationship) w/ Zaluzhny, I had thought it an obvious sign of a badly strained, if not dysfunctional, relationship. It’s tragic that their personalities seem to clash irreconcilably, as they appear (to my amateur eyes at least) to be so effective in their respective jobs. However, one cannot have a dysfunctional relationship between the C-in-C & the leader of the military, certainly not in times of war.
JWR
@Alison Rose:
Speaking of Johnson, being a, well, a big Johnson, this was on tonight’s PBS News Hour:
Lyrebird
@YY_Sima Qian: On this I very much agree! I was hoping that “working relationship” was a rough translation and not how it sounded.
Anyhow, it is very tragic.
Jay
Something that strikes me about the Zelenskyy/Zaluzhny “conflict”, is that it’s all un-named sources, that very quickly pushed the $40M dollar corruption case inside the MOD, the Arms Procurement Ministry and a Ukraine Weapons MFG out of the news.
Are people leaking stuff/making stuff up to cover up their corruption? Zaluzhny has been pretty good at rooting out corruption and tearing down Soviet legacies.
Jay
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/30/we-are-obliged-to-end-the-war-a-new-russian-battalion-fights-for-ukraine
Geoduck
A drone killed those American ground troops the other day as well. It’s not like only the Russians are getting targeted.
I predict someone’s going to be assassinated on American soil by a drone attack, if it hasn’t happened already.
Roberto el oso
@Gin & Tonic: as I’ve mentioned on a few occasions, my mother was born in Galicia, not far from Lviv (then known as Lvow), when that area was part of Poland. My understanding had always been that Galicia was given to Ukraine after WWII as a sort of balancing of Poland receiving Silesia from Germany (or, depending how far one wants to go back, getting Silesia returned). In your comment you refer to the “Polish occupation” of Halychyna (Galicia). My question is: during the brief interwar period when Poland regained its independence from the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Tsarist Russia, were its borders considered illegitimate by Ukrainians? Or at least its borders in that region?
Jay
@Roberto el oso:
yes, there was the Polish-Ukrainian War. Technically it ended after WWII.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Do you mean this one? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Ukrainian_War
Right after World War One ?
Roberto el oso
@Gin & Tonic: Re the “obsession” with Bandera, both in Russian propaganda and among its consumers: it is telling, I think, that they have to reach that far back for a ‘villain’. In terms of pro-Putin Americans I usually take the tossing around of his name as an indication that they’ve done a quick skip thru Wikipedia in their attempt to fake a deeper knowledge of the history than they have. An analogy would be with someone who comes away from a superficial reading of an article about the Mexican Revolution with the names Pancho Villa and Emiliano Zapata stuck in their head but with no knowledge of the relative importance of, say, Carranza or Obregon. Bandera has that same flavor of swashbuckling about him, which catches the eye of the shallow skimmer.
A similar thing occurs with a discussion of anarchy, I’ve noticed … when the boosters of that ideology have to reach back to the Spanish Civil War or even further back to the Paris Commune to find examples of any relevance, they’ve more or less shown their hands.
Roberto el oso
@Jay: As Chetan notes, the ‘war’ was all tied up with the fallout from the dissolution of the A-H Empire, as well as the Russian Civil War, when the Red Army got within shooting distance of Warsaw before they were defeated. Yes, there was the extremely violent and atrocity-ridden conflicts between Ukrainian and Polish populations at the tag end of WWII, but I had thought that was more like a reshuffling of populations, similar to the expulsion of ethnic Germans from various Eastern European countries.
My specific question to Gin & Tonic relates to the period from say 1919-1945/6, when Halychyna/Galicia formally becomes part of Ukraine.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Whatever the motivations of the anonymous sources, it is clear from reporting by highly reputable reporters in Western MSMs as well as analysts in Ukraine that the relationship between Zelenskyy & Zaluzhny are badly strained. Most of the reporting have been pretty consistent, & have dated back several months.
One hopes for a strong reconciliations, but as Mick Ryan & others have stated, the two are rapidly approaching (if not already past) a point of no return. Who would Zelenskyy replace Zaluzhny w/, though? Syrski?!
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
yeah, that was the start, it went on in the form of local pograms, raids, etc until after the end of WWII, when the Soviets occupied both Ukraine and Poland, redefined the border and conducted ethnic cleansing.
During the Austro-Hungarian Empire period, ethnic groups had for the most part, “mobility”, so as a result, there were no clear lines between “peoples”, all though they tended to cluster together.
Kinda like Vancouver, where we have 2 Chinatown’s, a Little Saigon, Little Italy, Little Punjab, Persia, Mallardville, Hatzic, we even have a Little Newfoundland.
The break up and new borders were messy.
Origuy
@Jay: Yes, I remember reading about the Newfie Massacre of 1952.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
LMFAO. I can count the number of “reliable reporters” in the Western MSM on one hand. “Reputable” just means they get a byline under the headline.
Only time will tell. This is not the first time that “unnamed sources” have claimed ir-revokable divisions in the Ukrainian Government, that were but a fart in the wind, at best.
dr. luba
Long standing? Since 1620, according to this chronology.
Jay
@Origuy:
they still sing aboot it me boys at kitchen parties to this day.
dr. luba
@Roberto el oso: The interwar period in Polish occupied Ukraine was one of forced Polonization. The people did not like that, which is why the UPA ended up fighting the russians, the Germans and the Poles during WWII.
Poland, with the help of russia, tried to change the facts on the ground, with a campaign of ethnic cleansing after the war.
bjacques
@Roberto el oso: Rojava is a sort of update of Barcelona
coozledad
It looks like the Russian sailors were trying to stop the drones with small arms fire? I couldn’t make out any mounted heavy machine guns on the deck. Is it still the assumption that in modern naval warfare a machine gun is useless, or are ships going to start carrying Oerlikons or their equivalent.
evodevo
@Chetan Murthy: Yep…and the generals/admirals complained “It’s not fair!!!” as their response LOL Van Riper was right – the game was rigged. Has the military matured any since then?
evodevo
@wombat probability cloud: Yeah, me too…anyone who has taught genetics has a PTSD reaction to that name…
Paul in KY
@Gin & Tonic: Bandera seems to have been a Nazi POS.