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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 709: Schroedinger’s General

War for Ukraine Day 709: Schroedinger’s General

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The crest of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. A wine colored cross on a silver shield with the gold Uktainian Tryzub in the center on a circular blue medallion. A pair of silver maces and an upright sword are between the blue medallion and the wine colored cross.

Friday has come and gone in Ukraine and President Zelenskyy may or may not have replaced General Zaluzhnyi.

We wait and watch.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Two more air defense systems capable of intercepting anything arrive in Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

2 February 2024 – 21:06

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Report on this day.

I held a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting. Today’s focus was strongly on front-line issues, front-line supply, fortifications, and the protection of our energy networks. We have good results, including continuous growth in Ukrainian drone production. A clear plan for 2024 regarding drones is in place. We’re adding contracts, increasing funding. I thank each and every one who is contributing to the development of this area in our Defense Forces, implementing necessary changes. To everyone scaling up drone production, this truly preserves the lives of our soldiers.

Today, there was also a report on fortifications at the meeting. Prime Minister Shmyhal and Defense Minister Umerov reported on the speed of construction and financing. Tasks are being performed.

Of course, we discussed issues related to projectiles – we’re expediting manufacturers, contracting additional volumes. Priorities are entirely clear.

The situation on key front lines, with special attention to Avdiivka, where conditions are extremely difficult. I’m grateful to all the guys in positions – every soldier, every sergeant, all the combat commanders. Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, and commanders Moskaliov and Syrsky reported on the front issues.

A separate report regarding energy facilities – physical protection, recovery after strikes, and the progress of the heating season. I am grateful to everyone ensuring the stability of our energy and adding energy resilience to our state.

International work today. A talk with the President of Kazakhstan – our bilateral cooperation, we can add activity. I informed the President about our global work in preparing for the Global Peace Summit. And, of course, thanked the people of Kazakhstan and companies for their humanitarian support for our people and society. It is important to preserve a shared vision of principles. And most importantly – peace.

I had several meetings today. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada – I thanked for the unwavering support of Ukraine, for the assistance that strengthens the most. We discussed the further agenda of our relations – Ukraine and Canada. And the work of the created coalition for the return of Ukrainian children deported to Russia. Today, at the meeting in Kyiv, this coalition began its work, and the Framework Document for its activities was presented. Canada is one of the coalition’s co-leaders, and I am grateful for the actions.

Also I had a meeting with the Minister for Foreign and European Affairs and Trade of Malta – the OSCE Chair-in-Office. For everyone worldwide who values international law, it is crucial to implement all points of the Peace Formula. This includes efforts to return Ukrainians who were deported to Russia.

Gradually, we are preparing for international work in the coming weeks. We need even more activity for our collective strength. Not only for Ukraine and Ukrainians, not only for Europe, but for all those in the world who strive for stability and value human life. There will be corresponding formats of work, and details are being prepared for new support packages for Ukraine.

And the main news today – the news we have all been eagerly anticipating. The news for which we have been working for months on various levels. Here is the result – two more air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine. All the details, of course, should not be discussed in public. But these are systems capable of intercepting anything. We will defend the regions. While the systems are still insufficient for the complete protection of Ukraine, we work towards this goal every day.

I am grateful to everyone who is helping Ukraine! Grateful to everyone strengthening Ukraine! I am thankful to each and every one fighting and working for Ukraine to succeed!

Glory to Ukraine! 

The reason:

Lithuania:

Bulgaria:

Germany:

Czechia:

PoliticoEU has the details:

BRUSSELS — Europe is falling way short on its pledge to send 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by March, and the Czechs say it’s high time to look beyond the borders of the EU for supplies.

Ukrainian forces on the front lines are warning they are running perilously low on ammunition to take on the Russian invaders in a war dominated by artillery bombardments.

The EU had originally pledged to supply 1 million shells by March, and France led calls for Europe to build up its homegrown industrial prowess to deliver munitions to Kyiv. However, the EU now says 524,000 shells will reach Ukraine by the March deadline, with 1.1 million only promised by the end of the year.

Frustrated by this shortfall, Prague is pushing EU countries to finance the purchase of what it estimates are 450,000 rounds of artillery available outside the bloc, four diplomats and a person familiar with the talks told POLITICO.

When the EU was calibrating its military aid commitments in early 2023, France — the bloc’s defense industry leader — had been pushing to make sure that subsidies were focused only on local production, rather than being funnelled abroad.

But the Czech call raises the prospect that Europe would turn instead to arms companies in South Korea, Turkey and South Africa. The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell specifically mentioned that Korea — a major weapons producer — could be tapped for extra shells, according to the official.

The EU’s blueprint to boost ammunition supplies includes reimbursing countries with billions of euros through the European Peace Facility for sending shells from existing stockpiles. This would exist along with €1 billion to push joint procurement of ammunition by the European Defence Agency and €500 million to support ammunition production projects.

Now, with Kyiv reeling from the constant attrition of Russia’s assault along a 1,000 kilometer frontline, the country’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov says there’s “shell hunger,” prompting friendly capitals to reconsider their military aid strategy.

One diplomat said the 450,000 figure was pitched during an informal meeting of EU defense ministers in Brussels on Wednesday. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala then told his counterparts during Thursday’s EU leaders’ summit that shells could be obtained from outside the EU to help the bloc meet its promise, according to another official briefed on the talks.

The EU is not the only ally failing to deliver. Political gridlock in Washington has also halted U.S. arms flows to Ukraine.

More at the link.

Hopefully Czechia’s plan works, because the cupboard is almost bare:

Also, from PoliticoEU:

KYIV — Ukraine’s army has a big problem: It’s receiving too few artillery shells to properly defend its 1,000-kilometer frontline against Russian assaults.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov described the situation as “shell hunger” to the artillery coalition — the French-led international grouping to send ammunition to Ukraine — earlier this month.

Ukraine is ramping up its domestic shell production, although the numbers are a secret, but still relies on its allies to supply the bulk of its ammunition. But too little is getting through to the troops.

The European Union had promised to send a million shells by March but won’t meet that target. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said this week that the bloc will ship only 524,000 shells by then, while promising 1.1 million by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, political gridlock in Washington has stopped all flows of military aid.

“We are now out of the military assistance that we’d been providing to Ukraine and we’ve even seen some evidence of what that means on the battlefield,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday.

The stoppage is having a real impact on the troops dug into trenches in southern and eastern Ukraine.

“We’ve never had enough shells of 122 mm caliber … we’re getting them right from the factory,” a Ukrainian artilleryman fighting near Avdiivka, one of the hottest spots on the front, told POLITICO. He spoke on condition of being granted anonymity as he was not authorized to talk to the media.

“On average, we fire 15 shots per day. But there were days when we made more than 100 shots, or haven’t made any at all. Now hostilities intensified in our direction, but we have as few shells as we used to have,” the soldier added.

Speaking to the artillery coalition, Umerov admitted: “Russia vastly outnumbers us in daily artillery attacks. At different areas of the front and stages of hostilities, they fired 5-10 times more artillery shells than the Ukrainian forces.”

He added: “Russian military industry enables its troops to fire tens of thousands of projectiles at Ukrainian positions. As the situation on the battlefield shows, there is no substitute for modern artillery.”

But achieving a big increase in Ukraine’s ammunition supplies isn’t going to be easy.

“Today we have a war of such a scale that the entire capacity of the free world is not enough to support our consumption. We definitely cannot do this without help,” Ukraine’s Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin told POLITICO.

The lack of shells is one of the key reasons the Ukrainian army has gone on the defensive along the whole front in the wake of this summer’s disappointing counteroffensive.

Less able to rely on artillery to hold back waves of attacking Russians, the Ukrainians are turning to FPV — or first-person view — drones to strike Russia’s tanks, armored vehicles and troops. The drones, often adapted hobby models equipped with bombs, have an onboard camera that enables operators to direct them to their targets with pinpoint accuracy.

That’s giving Ukraine a rare advantage over Russia. Its forces conducted 3,806 drone strikes from September to January while Russia only conducted 2,886, according to a count by the Kyiv-based Top Lead marketing agency.

A high-ranking Ukrainian army officer, speaking on condition of being granted anonymity, told POLITICO that Russians dominate the battlefield with their artillery. “And now, in some directions, this number sometimes exceeds our response many times over. That is why the use of FPV drones is one of the options for inflicting fire damage on the enemy, which is quite effective.”

He added that for now, Ukraine still has enough shells on hand to beat back any Russian breakthroughs.

“We have enough shells to defend ourselves at the moment, but to continue offensive actions we need help with ammunition. After all, during an offensive, it is necessary to have much more shells than your enemy has or at least the same amount,” the officer said.

While drones are helping keep the Russians at bay, that doesn’t mean more ammunition isn’t needed, said Mykola Bielieskov, senior military analyst with the Come Back Alive Charity Foundation, which helps the Ukrainian army with supplies.

“I believe that it will be difficult for us to fight only with FPV without classic artillery such as howitzers or [multiple rocket launch systems] plus at least 2,000-4,000 shells per day,” he said. “We need to maintain existing positions. And how to do it in the conditions of shell shortage is of course the challenge.”

Russia has far more arms and ammunition than Ukraine does, but is nevertheless having trouble maintaining the ferocious rate at which it is using ammunition.

Moscow has effectively transitioned the economy to a war footing and is ready for a long war of attrition. Its factories are churning out drones, tanks and shells, and the defense budget is the highest in Russia’s post-Soviet history.

In a televised conversation with President Vladimir Putin, Rostec defense conglomerate head Sergei Chemezov said in late December that the production of ammunition had increased fiftyfold since Moscow launched what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

And yet there are caveats.

Yury Fyodorov, a Prague-based independent military expert, said Russia’s army has drawn on old Soviet artillery stockpiles, but those are running out.

That’s where its geopolitical allies North Korea and Iran come in. According to Western officials and intelligence, they are supplying Russia with technology, shells and, possibly, ballistic missiles — although all involved parties deny it.

Fyodorov estimates Russia is firing about 10,000 shells daily, many more than Ukraine but still fewer than the tens of thousands per day at the beginning of the invasion.

That drop has forced the Russian military to rely on “meat assaults” — waves of troops to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses — in the protracted fight for the town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine.

“In my opinion the situation for Ukraine is dangerous, but not catastrophic,” Fyodorov said.

More at the link.

This is the link to General Zaluzhnyi’s essay in the original Ukrainian, as opposed to the English version that CNN published and that I excerpted yesterday. If any of our Ukrainian readers has time and the inclination to take a look, I’m curious to know how faithful CNN’s translation was to the original.

Kherson:

Bereslav, Kherson Oblast:

Macron commented on the death of French volunteers as a result of a Russian attack on Bereslav, Kherson region. Yesterday, the administration of the Kherson region reported about this:

“Foreign volunteers were killed and injured due to an enemy strike on Beryslav.
Russian army killed two French citizens. Three more foreigners received minor injuries. Among the wounded is also an activist of the organization’s Ukrainian representative office.
Sincere condolences to the families of the victims.”
https://t.me/olexandrprokudin/2687

Torske, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

The Avdiivka front:

 

The Donetsk front:

NAFO expansion is, apparently non-negotiable!

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

91Comments

  2. 2.

    Yutsano

    Wow. I don’t recall seeing Patron’s mom before! If that’s her anyway.

    I think Czechia should have come up with the idea of getting shells from outside the EU about a year and a half ago instead of what feels like the last minute. And yes if Korea, Türkiye, or whoever wants to sell the EU shells to supply Ukraine YES OF COURSE YOU SHOULD DO THAT!!! Especially since Europe can’t get its act together.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    Whatever the heck is going on, it’s gotta be weird to be Zaluzhny right now. Especially being in the meeting and Zelenskyy mentioning “Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny” in his address…and then seeing news stories saying “yep he’s gone soon”.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Sally

    @Yutsano: It is my understanding that this has been discussed over a long time, but France is the problem here.  France is pushing for EU aid to come exclusively from EU countries. Frustrating.

  5. 5.

    PJ

    @Yutsano: The EU, like the US, was viewing the donation of ammunition as a form of industrial welfare, with the money spent being funneled to EU (or US, respectively) industries.  Unfortunately, it seems that EU industry could not meet the demand.  The reason the idea for purchasing shells outside the EU was not floated before was evidently because it would not benefit EU industries, which is why there is resistance to the proposal.

  8. 8.

    Dagaetch

    Adam, thank you as always.

    Apologies to all if this has already been discussed recently and I missed it, but I read an article about the Russian economy (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putins-unsustainable-spending-spree) and was curious for a more informed opinion of its accuracy. The summary seems to be that the Russian economy will pay a severe price for this war, but not for a few more years. The article makes logical sense, but as this is a topic I know little about, I was hoping others might be able to share their knowledge.

  11. 11.

    Jay

    Whut Gerasimov doing?

    Hasn’t been seen since November when he may or may not have been wounded or killed in a Ukrainian strike, other than a short video of him propped up with pillows in a hospital bed.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  12. 12.

    Gretchen

    Thanks for all you do, Adam. I’m not sure if you’ve covered this before, but I keep seeing people ask why, if we want Israel to stop bombing Gaza, we keep sending them bombs. Are there good resources on this issue?

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    @PJ: I think that it was at DW that I saw arguments that the big EU defense contractors said that they needed multi year contracts to justify the expense of expanding production.  And fragile EU governments, like Germany’s, were unwilling – so far – to give those kinds of contracts.

    It’s a tough political problem in many countries.

    Politics is slow.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    Adam L Silverman

    @trnc: No worries, it happens. Lots of updates with lots of material. Some nights I look at some of this stuff and go “did I post that last night?”

  19. 19.

    Andrya

    Thanks as always, Adam.

    Although I admire Pres. Zelenskyy enormously, I do not understand how he is is handling this.  Everywhere I ever worked, a person who was fired (as opposed to laid off for lack of work) was relieved of responsibility from the moment they were told they were fired.  I am 100% sure that Gen. Zaluzhnyi will do his absolute best for Ukraine despite having been told that he is fired- but just about anyone’s performance is going to suffer somewhat after the mental shock of being told they had been fired.  (Probably even more with the public humiliation of all the leaks to the press.)  Plus, Zaluzhnyi’s strategy might conflict with his replacement’s strategy.  Plus, subordinate generals might not cooperate quite so enthusiastically if they know their superior will be gone in a matter of weeks.

    Can anyone explain this to me in a way that makes sense?

  22. 22.

    Jay

    @Andrya:

    My take is that about a week ago, a $40 million dollar scam was exposed in the MOD, the Arms Procurement Ministry and a major Arms Manufacturer. 100,000 mortar shells were supposed to be supplied, the contract was paid up front, in whole. ) shells were delivered, in a year plus, 7 high ranking people were arrested, one while trying to flee Ukraine.

    So far, nobody claiming that Zalunhy(sp?) has been fired is on record. They are all “anonamous”.

    It’s not the first time that “sabotage” has come from inside the Ukrainian Government.

    We will soon see what’s up.

  26. 26.

    Jay

    @Jay:

    should have been 0 rather than ). They didn’t even try to make the shells.

    The General drama has knocked the whole thing out of the news.

  28. 28.

    Comrade Bukharin

    I just can’t believe these pathetic Russian troops will be able to storm through Poland and the Baltics.

  30. 30.

    Andrya

    @Jay:   Totally thanks for the reply, and I hadn’t known about this issue,  so I know more thanks to you.  However, I’m still puzzled.  Military types please correct me, but I wouldn’t expect the C-in-C general to be dealing with procurement contracts-  I would expect that to be under the Defenses Minister.  Unless Zaluzhnyi was personally involved in the fraud, which I doubt (and which would require immediate firing- basically it was treason) I don’t see where he comes in.

    Unfortunately, I can easily see the Republicans using this to build support for cutting off aid to Ukraine.  I hope they don’t, but it’s just the sort of thing that they would do.

    Thanks again!

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @Steve in the ATL:

    @Andrya:

    Zaluzhnyi has been pretty effective at targeting corruption inside the MOD et al, along with reforming the UAF away from Soviet Military Culture.

    If you are a corrupt MOD insider, with your “own” crook,  what better defense than to use whispers to try to kneecap the reformer?

    Eventually, we will find out what is going on.

  33. 33.

    Anoniminous

    @Comrade Bukharin:

    The Russian Army no longer has the capability to conduct Combined Arms maneuver warfare if, indeed, they ever had the capability. Given the laughable performance of  their Battalion Tactical Groups in the first year I have my doubts.

  35. 35.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay: ​
     
    Georgia isn’t Poland. Poland intends to have the largest army in Europe by 2026 and they really hate the Russians. Plus there are paramilitary and civilian ‘Weekend Warriors’ being trained but, last I looked not armed, by the Polish Army.

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: The key point is that Zelenskyy himself has been quite coy on the topic, & has not vocally shut down the rumors, nor made any show of solidarity w/ Zaluzhny. If this is just a campaign by corrupt elements w/in the Ukrainian government, Zelenskyy is more than capable of shutting it down by making it clear that he fully supports Zaluzhny. Unless, of course, Zelenskyy himself is directing the rumormongering campaign against Zaluzhny to discredit him.

    WaPo has reported that the Zelenskyy government has informed the WH that Zaluzhny is to be removed. If that reporting is false, the WH should be refuting it immediately.

    I think you are way overthinking this. The only reasons Zelenskyy has not yet made it official are probably because of the prospect of domestic backlash & behind the scenes concerns from international partners.

    I have not the foggiest idea why Zelenskyy feels compelled to remove Zaluzhny at this moment, though, other than perhaps long standing personality clash & recent disagreement on what the Ukrainian Armed Forces could realistically achieve in 2024.

  39. 39.

    wjca

    @Andrya: Although I admire Pres. Zelenskyy enormously, I do not understand how he is is handling this.  …

    Can anyone explain this to me in a way that makes sense?

    Last I saw, Zelenskyy had said that replacing Zaluzhnyi was “not being considered.”  I can see why repeating this daily might be considered wasted effort, if not counterproductive — “would he keep talking about it if there was nothing there?”.

    As you note, if there was any basis for it, the sensible approach would be to pick out a successor and have him ready to go, then tell Zaluzhnyi and the world at the same time, i.e. the day it happened.  Unless Zelenskyy is dumb, what’s happening makes no sense.  Unless the whole thing is ginned up out of whole cloth as a distraction.  Either by Russia (disinformation is a core competency) or by the traitors who stole money intended for munitions.

  40. 40.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    the ruZZian goal is to take the Donbass et al, (take a bite out), get a Quisling government in the rump of Ukraine, and use Ukrainian resources and manpower to rebuild the ruZZian military.

    They have probed several times with a bayonet, (Transinitria, Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine) and found that The West is mush.

    Once Ukraine is done, they figure 4 years to rebuild the Orc forces, then take a bite out of NATO in the Baltics, probably Latvia or Lithuania, both have large ethnic ruZZian populations, roughly 25%. And it won’t be just ruZZia on the attack, Belarus, the rump state of Georgia, the rump remains of Ukraine and Hungary* will all be “onside” in one way or another.

    They managed to take the ReThug Party with out firing a single shot.

    *one of Orban’s Ministers recently said that if Ukraine falls, they will get/take the Hungarian Minority areas of Ukraine. So, looks like Orban has already struck a deal with Putin.

  42. 42.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: I think you are way overthinking this. The only reasons Zelenskyy has not yet made it official are probably because of the prospect of domestic backlash & behind the scenes concerns from international partners.

    If those are his concerns, how is what is happening helping?  If anything, it would appear to be making the situation far worse.

    That every source of these rumors is anonymous suggests at least a strong possibility that they are baseless.  Well, unless you count real tensions between the two men as a basis — but that would be one frail reed to support what’s being “reported.”

  44. 44.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay:
    Sorry but that’s a ridiculous scenario.​
    It may be the Russian Plan but the fact is the Russians are a bunch of fuck-ups. They are grossly incompetent soldiers.

  45. 45.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Or, it’s a rumour that needs not be addressed, or cannot, if addressed, settle it one way or another.

    Zelenskyy is running silent, the White House is running silent, Zaluzhnyi is running silent,

    all we are getting are “unnamed sources”.

    We will find out what is happening when it happens.

  47. 47.

    Andrya

    @Anoniminous:      @Anoniminous:   I don’t think that putin intends the russian army to fight its way across Poland, or anywhere else.  I think part of the purpose of the incredible brutality of the russian campaign in Ukraine- mass bombing of civilians, massacres in occupied territories, destroying the dam, kidnapping children- is intended to terrorize putin’s next targets- the Baltics, Finland, and Poland- into immediate surrender.  He doesn’t realize that his incredible brutality will also stiffen resistance.  And he’s counting on his psyops, plus Orban, plus Trump’s re-election (G-d forbid) to destroy NATO.

    I will also mention that Finland, as well as Poland, is armed to the teeth and has a huge reserve military structure.  They have lived next door to russia for centuries, and were ruled by russia in the late 19th century- they know what they are dealing with.

  48. 48.

    Jay

    @Comrade Bukharin:

    @Anoniminous:

    Article 5 is not binding to NATO nations. All of NATO get’s to vote, every body get’s a veto, Hungary is in NATO.

    Nations can volenteer if somebody in NATO want’s an Article 5, (9/11), but they don’t have to do anything to back it up.

    If you look at the history of the ruZZian “Empire”, or the USSR, it was always one bite at a time. They never, until the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact, never took over anybody in one gulp.

  51. 51.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: When rumors are that strong, being reported by MSM all over the West & w/in Ukraine, including taken as fact by the Ukrainian analysts we all follow on a daily basis, they need to be addressed in no uncertain terms. Or the rumors become taken as fact by default. Communications 101.

    There is good reason the WH does not want to publicly wade into any decision Zelenskyy makes wrt Zaluzhny, that would be overtly interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation. However, it can & should refute any erroneous reporting that directly involves the WH.

    Unless you want the rumors too be taken as fact.

  52. 52.

    wjca

    @Anoniminous: It may be the Russian Plan but the fact is the Russians are a bunch of fuck-ups. They are grossly incompetent soldiers.

    Between the (lack of) training they are getting, and the way the Russian military is structured/orgainzed, pretty much anybody would show as incompetent soldiers.  Unfortunately for the cannon fodder.

    On the evidence so far, their military is either incapable of changing their approach or fiercely determined not to let it happen.  Like what we are seeing from TIFG’s Republican party, only more so.

  53. 53.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: My guess is that Zelenskyy & his advisors underestimated the domestic & international backlash.

    Still, as you say, what is happening now (w/ Zaluzhny still on the job for the time being, but rift w/ Zelenskyy out in the open) is the worst of both worlds, & certainly unsustainable.

    As Mick Ryan said a couple of days ago, either strongly reconcile w/ Zaluzhny, or resolutely proceed w/ the personnel change. There is no in between.

  54. 54.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: In my opinion, you guys are all missing the point here.

    It doesn’t matter whether Zelenskyy’s reasons for removing Zaluzhny are good or bad ones. Zelenskyy is the head of civilian government. If he wants Zaluzhny out, Zaluzhny’s duty is to salute and leave his post to a replacement. The most easily forseeable consequence of Zaluzhny using his popularity and influence to push back on the civilian government’s decision to remove him is, in effect, a military putsch that leaves the Armed Forces of Ukraine in effective control of government.

    I’ll say this again: a democracy at war is an incredibly fragile thing. Military exigency, and the cover of a national state of emergency, can make faits accomplis of constitutional upheavals, and leave civilian government subject to the rule of the military. If this should happen in Ukraine, I would regard it as a calamity comparable to a Russian victory: the latter would be a strategic disaster for the West, but the former would make a lie of our reasons to want Ukraine to win.

  55. 55.

    Jay

    @Comrade Bukharin:

    we can’t even manage to “shell up” Ukraine, despite declarations that we will stand with them forever.

    Words don’t kill tanks.

    And if TFG is elected, or any other Rethug, NATO is done and the EU despite jaw, jaw, jawing about it for decades still does not have a combined security compact/structure.

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: Given the realities of the Ukrainian battlefield at this moment, I am not sure there is any approach will not be a bloody & slow grinding affair. That has been the Zaluzhny’s assessment, as well as those of Michael Kofman, Rob Lee & others. However, unlike the Ukrainians, the Russian commanders do not appear to give a 2nd thought to the bloodletting of their own fodder & the slow grind forward.

  57. 57.

    Andrya

    @Comrade Bukharin:   I hope you are right, but I’m doubtful.  NATO Article 5 requires unanimous consent of the NATO nations- a single veto is enough to disable it.  And as far as I can see, Orban and the government of Hungary are in putin’s pocket.  If russia invades the Baltic states, I don’t trust Hungary not to veto a NATO response.

    Also, former officials of the Trump administration (including former National Security Advisor John Bolton) have said that, in a second term, Trump intended to pull the US out of NATO.

  59. 59.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @Comrade Bukharin:

    I had a guy fresh from Poland in my rigging crew at a boat manufacturer in the mid 80’s. He’s still alive so I won’t use his name but his middle name is Bronisław and he had us call him Bruno. I spent a lot of time training him (excellent worker) and even though he barely spoke English he quickly got better at it. He told me about Solidarity and how he had to flee the country because the authorities were after him for his involvement in the movement.

    To say he hated Ruzzia and Ruzzians would be an understatement, so I can understand the enthusiasm for the Polish people to kick some Ruzzian ass if they have to.

  60. 60.

    Andrya

    @Carlo Graziani:   I agree with everything that you said, but it doesn’t change the fact that Zelenskyy appears to be tolerating dangerous ambiguity about who is in charge, and who will be in charge in the future, of the armed forces of Ukraine.

  61. 61.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Zaluzhnyi is still in charge of the UA Military,

    Zelenskyy is still the President.

    The White House has in no way responded to the WSJ’s claims.

    It’s been a week, and bupkis, just rumour after rumour by unnamed “sources”, and no new claims.

    We will find out, when we find out, when something actually happens.

  62. 62.

    wjca

    @Andrya: I will also mention that Finland, as well as Poland, is armed to the teeth and has a huge reserve military structure.  They have lived next door to russia for centuries, and were ruled by russia in the late 19th century- they know what they are dealing with.

    Finland also took on, not just Russia but the whole Soviet Union (the “Winter War”).  The Soviets “won,” but their troops did not show up well, despite massively outnumbering the Finns.

    The parallels to Ukraine are striking.  And, as you say, the Finns have since built their military to deal with the threat of a repeat.  NATO membership gives them the prospect of secure rear areas and resupply . . . once the lessons of trying to supply Ukraine have sunk in.

  63. 63.

    Anoniminous

    @Andrya:
    The US dropped 7.5 million tons of bombs on Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia twice as much as the US dropped in all of WW 2 on all fronts.  And lost.
    Despite the over-wrought rhetoric the bombardment of Ukraine with those silly missiles pales in comparison the the fire storms raids over Germany.  In the February 13–15, 1945 Dresden raid people’s brains were literally boiled out through their temples.  In 1943 the Hamburg US and UK air forces caused a firestorm:

    A sea of flame grew with temperatures quickly rising over 1,000 degrees Celsius. Superheated air rose above the flames, creating a vacuum that sucked in more air and oxygen, thus feeding the rapidly growing inferno. The process accelerated and generated a wind blowing between 120 and 170 miles per hour, stronger than most hurricanes. Trees were uprooted; people were swept away by the gusts. Along with the heat and light, the fire roared. One eyewitness recalled: “What a sound it was! It was hell, it was hell’s fires. In hell it is not only hot, but loud. The firestorm was screaming.”
    The fire seemed to become a living entity, changing course at will, consuming everything in its path, and generating a heat that melted glass and cutlery and turned bricks to ash. For over four hours, the city burned. Charred bodies littered the landscape as only the facades of buildings remaining. While no definitive casualty number was recorded, some estimates place it near 40,000. Many of the deaths were not caused by fire, but from smoke inhalation or carbon monoxide poisoning as the flames consumed all the available oxygen.

    Cite
    Strategic air power is vastly over-rated. The war was not ended by Air Power. The German part of WW 2 was ended by the Russians killing, torturing, and raping their way through Berlin.​

  64. 64.

    Jay

    @Andrya:

    you can’t defeat a “whisper campaign” with a public statement. Never works.

    Did you know that Vice President Kamela Harris is a horrible, irrational and angry boss?

    That’s what Republican, Used Car Dealers, Diners in Ohio, unnamed ex staffer’s have been saying.

    So far, we have nobody, zero, none of any actual Ukrainian, US or NATO officials, not even a mailroom boy person going on record.

  66. 66.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay:

    The Russian Empire was mostly created by moving east and fighting fuzzy-wuzzies. The various partitions of Poland happened due to various alliances between Prussia, Imperial Russia, and the Hapsburg monarchy. The one area they did conquer was Finland during the Napoleonic Wars because Russia fought Sweden to “protect St. Petersburg.” And then they lost it when Finland declared independence in 1917 and Lenin and Trotsky didn’t do anything to stop it.

  67. 67.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Completely agree. However, there are realpolitik & moral reasons to support Ukraine regardless of the form of its government. Russian revanchism still needs to be checked somewhere, preferably before Putin turns his eyes to the Baltic states. It’s not just liberal democracies that have the right to national sovereignty.

    After all, the Poland carved up by Nazi Germany & the USSR was a right wing military dictatorship, & so was the ROC under assault by Imperial Japan.

    OTOh, a civilian government cowed by its military would be a tragedy for Ukraine. Of course, we are talking about a hypothetical here.

  68. 68.

    Anoniminous

    @wjca: ​
     
    Russia is a failing state. The kleptocrats are fighting over control of natural resources. They don’t give one slimy fuck about the military, except as a source of loot.

  71. 71.

    Anoniminous

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​
     
    In military geography Poland is part of the Great East/West Invasion Route otherwise known as the European Plain. It’s wide, fairly flat, with only rivers and the Pinsk/Pripet Marshes providing operational barriers. Being in the middle Poland was easily carved-up – three times! – by ‘edge states:’ the Habsburg monarchy, the Kingdom of Prussia, and the Russian Empire. Unless they go mentally retarded the Poles will defend Ukraine, if only for the selfish reason: if you have to fight a war, fight it in someone else’s country.

  72. 72.

    Sebastian

    @Another Scott:

    do these morons really believe that their order books wouldn’t be filled for years? Each of them can barely manufacture 100-200k shells per year and we know Ukraine is going to create a stockpile of several million shells just in case Russia gets stupid ideas again.

  73. 73.

    Jay

    @Sebastian:

    The issue is basically cash flow, or as Wimpy once said, “I will gladly pay you Thursday, for a hamburger today”.

    And trickle down.

    No contracts, no payment, no income to pay staff or suppliers, until the munitions are sold. Massive outlays for expansion of operations.

    It’s a risk, a big risk, and these are “for profit” Corps.

  74. 74.

    ColoradoGuy

    The fecklessness of the major European powers is astounding. It’s not surprising the USA is being drawn into Civil War 2.0, because that was always an inch below the surface. But you’d think the Euro powers could see what was right in front of them … a voracious, medieval empire bent on annihilating the Enlightenment and the modern societies it created.

    Hitler and Mussolini already had one try at creating European slave societies; there was no reason to suppose that way of thinking had disappeared forever. Right now, in 2024, there are millions of Americans who would love to bring back slavery.

  75. 75.

    Jay

    @ColoradoGuy:

    The EU has been targeted much longer by ruZZian disinfo and penetration ops much longer than the US. Most of the EU Reich wing groups have been sleeping with the ruZZians when ruZZia was still the USSR.

    “They” are at all levels of the State Governments, the EU Councils, etc.

    As a whole, the EU has matched or surpassed US Aid to Ukraine, civil and military. Some EU countries, (the Baltics) as a portion of GDP, have put everybody to shame.

  76. 76.

    Gvg

    I suspect the reason neither the EU not the US have been able to help Ukraine enough is because we don’t have the manufacturing anymore. This is also behind some of our continuing supply issues here, unrelated to that war. Biden’s infrastructure plans are really necessary. We are too vulnerable.

    Anyway so far we have been sending old stuff to Ukraine which has to run out. We sold our factories, many to the Chinese. We can’t gear up like we did for WWII. And we have a labor shortage also. This time we don’t have a hidden work force of women who used to stay home, now they are already working.

    In the long run we need factories here not just cheap over seas. Same for Europe. We can do that, but not as quickly as Adam wants.

  77. 77.

    Jay

    @Gvg:

    Canada has a “crap load” of high precision air to ground rockets, that are at their “expiry date”.

    Ukraine can use them, they fit all their air to ground launchers.

    So far, the plan is to pay a Quebec company $122 million to “deactivate” them.

    Dominion makes 122mm, 105mm and 155mm precision and guided arty shells. They are running one shift, 8am to 4:30pm.

    There are still no contracts for expanding their operation to 3 shifts.

  78. 78.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gvg: The US has never outsourced its defense industry. Indeed, the US defense industry is supplying much of the West & partners across the globe The MIC has simply consolidated too much & became parasites feeding on the ever expanding defense budget, w/ a broken procurement process that seems immune to discipline.

    As for outsourcing of industry in general, that started in the 70s when the Bretton Woods financial system broke down & the USD appreciated substantially (thus US became less competitive against the Japanese & the Europeans), & gathered steam through the 80s & 90s, when short term profit became the overriding factor animating Corporate America. The PRC did not become a major beneficiary until the 00s, after its WTO entry, & through the 00s it captured far more outsourcing opportunities from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & SE Asia than the US or the EU, though a lot of it was directly or indirectly in service of US/EU MNCs or US/EU markets. PRC industry did not start to seize market share from US/EU companies until the late 10s. Before that the PRC industry was largely taking global market share from Japanese, South Korean & Taiwanese industries (steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, LCD displays, consumer electronics, semiconductor packaging, etc.), which the US had already surrendered to in the 80s – 90s.

    Given the trendiness in the 90s, even if the PRC did not enter the WTO in 2001, the US & the EU would have outsourced a lot of their manufacturing to SE & S. Asia.

  79. 79.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    LMAO. Back in the late 80’s, the Corp I was working for bought all of our LCD’s for Industrial Computers from just one company in Japan.

    The US MIC invested a fortune in developing domestic LCD’s.

    One of our MOU’s decided that “the rule of 9” would apply, and in 9 months LCD’s would cost half as much, and priced our products accordingly.

    The US made 3, then bailed on the project.

    We took a major bath and it crippled the Company. Even getting bought by 3M couldn’t save it.

  80. 80.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Anoniminous: Absolutely! Regardless of the form of government in Ukraine, Poland, Czechia, Romania, the Baltics, & Finland will support it to the maximum extent they can against any Russian encroachment.

  81. 81.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: OT: LCD is one of those many missed opportunities by the US (the solar panel is another). It was developed in the US during the 60s – 70s, commercialized by Japan (hiring American experts & “borrowing” US IP in the process) during the 80s – 90s, industrialized by South Korea & Taiwan (hiring Japanese experts & “borrowing” Japanese IP in the process) during the 00s, & made dirt cheap by the PRC (hiring South Korean & Taiwanese experts & “borrowing” South Korean & Taiwanese IP in the process) during the 10s.

    I had a front row seat from the mid-00s on. Today, Chinese panel makers (& display technology has moved on to mini-LED LCDs & OLEDs) have all but chased the South Korean & Taiwanese manufacturers out of the market. In the early 00s, these panel makers (most Chinese state owned) used to have mostly Taiwanese expats in middle to upper management, South Korean & Taiwanese expats in mid- to senior level technical staff. Now, all of the management are Mainland Chinese, & so are all of the low- to mid-level & many of the senior level technical staff, but they still retain South Korean & Taiwanese engineers as the most senior technical experts.

  82. 82.

    Subsole

    @Comrade Bukharin:

    Well, pathetic as it and its forces may be, Russia is apparently at least able to unfuck itself enough to get its military ammo on a pretty reliable basis. Unlike the various arse-nals of Democracy, apparently. /bitter

    A shitty grunt with a loaded gun is a lot better than a good one with no ammo.

    Also, watching that drone footage is…man. I wouldn’t go walking around a modern battlefield unless my outfit was designed and manufactured by Stark Industries.

  84. 84.

    Subsole

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    As I understand it, the issue isn’t necessarily the defense industry. Or, to abstract it a bit, we may not have sold y’all the bomb factory, but we did sell the chip factory that produces the chips that go into the guidance systems for those bombs. The issue is that even if your country isn’t selling bombs, they can sell bomb parts. And right now, they are selling them to Russia.

    Which, yeah. I can see the logic there. We’d do the same in their shoes. Still rankles a bit.

    I will agree that we would have sold to someone else if not China, because American business is run by a bunch of overeducated, underqualified idiots who literally cannot fathom the idea of consequences that exist beyond the next quarterly stock buyback.

  85. 85.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Subsole: Ironically, until the Trump & then the Biden Administrations started restricting the export of high end semiconductors to the PRC, the PRC was only making a small fraction of mature commodity semiconductors (that are useful for everything from house appliances to drones to missiles). The vast majority of commodity semiconductors were made in Taiwan, Europe & the US.

    The majority is still made in these places, but that is set to change in the next 3 – 5 years, as the PRC ramps up its own mature commodity semiconductor manufacturing to take market share from Taiwan & Europe, as a foundation toward advanced semiconductors. Until then, mature commodity semiconductors exported to the PRC will find their way into Russia, to meet demands of both Russian civilian & defense industries. Since the PRC accounts for > 50% of the total global semiconductor demand, this flow is impossible to stem or regulate even if the PRC government was inclined to do so, & it clearly is not. Alternatives routes also exist via Central Asia, the UAE & Türkiye.

    It is not just commodity chips, but other machinery useful for defense (& civilian) industries such as medium tech. commodity CNCs. Here is an investigation by a Taiwanese independent media on how CNCs made in Taiwan find their way to Russia via the PRC or Türkiye, despite the official stance of the Taiwanese government wrt Ukraine:

    Our latest investigation: how Taiwan became one of Russia’s most important suppliers of high-precision metalworking machines. Some of the machine tools were even acquired by nuclear research institutes and missile developers in Russia.

    …

    Since the report has come out, the Taiwanese government has upped the level of fines for exporting CNCs to Russia & Belarus by 15X. However, I doubt the Taiwanese government has the capability, capacity, or the will to establish a bureaucracy to track the end users of Taiwanese made medium tech CNCs sold via middlemen. In any case, PRC made medium tech CNCs have largely caught up to Taiwan made ones, & in advanced CNCs for defense/aerospace applications are starting to approach that of  Germans/Japanese/Swiss manufacture, though the latter ones’ production rate is probably too low for export to Russia to be take priority over domestic needs.

  86. 86.

    Bill Arnold

    @Odie Hugh Manatee:

    To say he hated Ruzzia and Ruzzians would be an understatement, so I can understand the enthusiasm for the Polish people to kick some Ruzzian ass if they have to.

    I’ve heard this too. A few years ago a Polish (American citizen, family in Poland) co-worker/friend explained to me succinctly that the Poles distrust the Germans but HATE the Russians. Another Polish co-worker concurred.

  87. 87.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The USAF just attacked dozens of sites in Syria & Iraq, targeting Iranian backed Shi’ite militias that had been harassing US outposts in the same region. Supposedly Jordanian Air Force jets participated, as well.

    These strikes were clearly conducted in retaliation for the recent attack on Tower 22 on the Syrian-Jordanian border, that killed 3 US troops & wounded dozens. However, by telegraphing the strikes for nearly a week, it probably also allowed the Iranians to shift IRGC & Quds Force personnel from these sites before hand. I suspect the Biden Administration is trying to walk the tight rope of exacting punishment against the attacks on US outposts by Iranian backed militias since Oct. 7, while also reducing the risk of rapid escalation into generalized fighting w/ the Iranian backed militias, or worse, directly engaging Iranian forces. Contrast this caution w/ the IDF repeatedly targeting IRGC commanders in Syria & Lebanon.

    These strikes blowing ammo caches will probably not greatly affect the ability of these Iranian backed militias to continue to target US outposts, any more than the strikes against Houthi targets are meaningfully degrading the latter’s ability to target shipping the Red Sea. The hope is probably that Iran is sufficiently alarmed about the potential for escalation toward a direct confrontation that neither the US nor Iran appear to want (though one perhaps Israel & the KSA hope to see), to start reining in the militias in Syria/Iraq & the Houthi Movement. The tactic might be effective w/ the militias, but far less likely w/ the Houthis, which is enjoying a surge in domestic & regional support for its harassment of select Red Sea shipping.

  88. 88.

    Another Scott

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    “Ironically”

    I don’t see the irony, given China’s demand for rapid growth and the way countries have historically developed. Textiles are hundreds of years old. Automobiles are going on 150 years old. Semiconductors are going on 70 years old. Etc., etc.

    China wants to quickly move up the value chain to maintain high levels of economic growth. And they don’t want to be at the mercy of anyone else, so they want control of access to coal, oil, rare earths, intellectual property, and all the rest.

    US and EU policy makers know this, and have seen what happens when non-friendly (or worse) states have control of critical inputs (raw materials or finished industrial inputs or critical technology (the 5G stuff with Huawei)). There’s lots of distrust and lots of worry about the future and lots of domestic concerns to worry about. (E.g. the necessity of continued growth in China, the necessity of continued relatively cheap fuel and worldwide trade transportation and electrical power in the USA and Europe.)

    This is why China is turning out masses of engineers and investing heavily in quantum and “AI” and all the high-tech buzzwords (along with all the rest of the stuff they’re doing). Anyone in their situation would be doing the same.

    Their investments in their military are making their neighbors, and the existing power structures, nervous though…

    My $0.02.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  89. 89.

    way2blue

    @wjca:

    Who benefits if Zaluzhnyi is gone?

    If I’m understanding Jay correctly—that would be elements w/in the military that prefer a Soviet-style structure and embedded, endemic corruption.

  90. 90.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: Dead thread…

    The irony is that, even in the mature commodity semiconductors space, corporate actors (private, state owned or mixed ownership) in the PRC had not been particularly motivated to indigenize, despite the long running PRC government efforts at industrial policy to push in this direction. Lots of state money invested for little apparent gain. Why take a risk on unproven domestic supplier, w/ a less capable & lower quality product (might not even be cheaper), when you can just as easily buy a proven product from TI, NXP or ST Micro? So all of the companies built up by state largesse had been starved of orders to finance their further optimization, expansion & R&D, finding it hard to close the last 20% of commercialization toward competitiveness. The US semiconductor restrictions changed the incentives 180 degrees around.

    The joke in the PRC (this applies in every industry) right now is that an engineer used to be severely challenged by management if he/she chose to try a domestic supplier, now the same engineer will be severely challenged by management if he/she continues to rely upon Western (especially American) suppliers only. Once the PRC has a large mature commodity semiconductor manufacturing itself, & PRC tech companies are all targets of US restrictions/sanctions (which is the direction the US is heading toward), there will be zero incentives for the PRC tech companies to refrain from supplying Russia or anyone else. What is flowing to Russia now is a fraction of what the PRC industrial sector could supply if they have low dependence on Western tech or components, or little access to Western markets.

    The heightening mutual distrust will prove costly, though, & slow down global technological advancement & especially adoption of green tech. In response to US semiconductor restrictions, the PRC is now restricting the export of refined materials critical to both electrification & military applications (such as Gallium & Germanium), technologies for refining rare earth metals (where PRC industry had built up a commanding lead in capacity & technology, & represents the real choke point, not extraction), & technologies associated w/ batteries & solar panels.

    Both the PRC & the US will have to learn to accept a high degree of mutual vulnerability, rather than further destabilizing the world in their searches for absolute security.

  91. 91.

    Another Scott

    @YY_Sima Qian: My view is that one has to be able to walk, to some extent, before one can run.  I don’t find the semiconductor push at all surprising. They may not need to out produce NXP to get to where they want to be, but one doesn’t learn how to run a 3 nm semiconductor fab without understanding how to run a 50 nm semiconductor fab first.

    Agreed that fear and distrust isn’t good for the world.  Finding ways to get along, and (one of Biden “Joey” stories mantras) mutual respect goes a long way.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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