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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 722: Russia Bombards Ukraine Before Dawn, Again!

War for Ukraine Day 722: Russia Bombards Ukraine Before Dawn, Again!

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Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

For those wondering, the House is in recess until 28 FEB 2024. The first of the stepped continuing resolutions expires on 1 MAR 2024. The second, which includes the DOD and the Department of State, expires on 8 MAR 2024.

Overnight, the russian invaders attacked Ukraine with 26 cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

Ukrainian defenders shot down 13 missiles of various types:
◾️8 Kh-101 cruise missiles
◾️1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile
◾️2 Kalibr cruise missiles
◾️2 Kh-59 cruise missiles

We are grateful to our brave defenders and international partners who help strengthen Ukraine’s air defense.

📹: A large crater in the Kyiv region after the missile attack

More on this after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We are creating a new security architecture for Ukraine that will help in the long run – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

15 February 2024 – 22:09

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

The summary of the day.

First, I would like to thank all our defenders of the sky. Another Russian missile attack was repelled. In total, more than 20 missiles of various types were used, with a significant number being shot down. I am grateful to all the servicemen of the Air Force, all our anti-aircraft gunners, and mobile firing groups. I am grateful to everyone who ensures the effectiveness of air defense and electronic warfare. And soon we will further reinforce our defense against Russian terror.

Secondly, today I held several preparatory meetings in the run-up to our international activities. We are now on our way.

Important meetings with partners are planned. There will be new agreements. We are doing everything to make them effective for Ukraine, and I am sure it will be so. We are creating a new security architecture for our country that will help us not just here and now, but in the long run. And this is something that Ukraine has never had, although it has always needed it.

Third, a meeting on the border situation with Poland. I instructed the Prime Minister of Ukraine to immediately hold a conversation with his Polish counterpart.

We in Ukraine view what has happened and is happening to our citizens and Ukrainian cargo as an obvious violation of the principles of solidarity. Ukrainian grain on the asphalt is not just a few dramatic shots. This is evidence of how emotions can become dangerous. We have to defend the good neighborliness and solidarity that are changing the history of the whole of Europe for the better. And together with Poland, we must establish a unified stance towards the imports of Russian grain and other Russian goods to European countries in order to protect our societies and specifically farmers, both Ukrainian and Polish. And we must always come to an agreement with each other – Ukrainians and Poles – so that our common enemy in Moscow cannot turn conflicts in our border area against the economy, borders and sovereignty of each of us.

Fourth, I met with representatives of Ukrainian business. The recently established Council for Support of Entrepreneurship under Martial Law. We discussed clear things – things that can provide more confidence to business and the state. We are equally interested in growing our economy and creating and preserving as many jobs as possible.

There is a first set of decisions that will be submitted for consideration by the All-Ukrainian Economic Platform “Made in Ukraine” and later by the Parliament and the Cabinet of Ministers. More protection for business from procedural violations and abuses. More opportunities to support legal business and receive more taxes. More efficiency in the Economic Security Bureau. There are plenty of such tasks. And all state institutions must eventually be reconfigured to facilitate economic growth to the fullest extent possible. The timeframe for decisions has also been outlined.

And one more thing for today.

A report by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The situation on the frontline – Avdiivka and the east in general. We are doing everything we can to ensure that our warriors have enough managerial and technological capabilities to save as many Ukrainian lives as possible.

Today I also signed several decrees on new replacements in the Ukrainian Defense Forces. More combat experience of this war, more modern approaches.

I am grateful to everyone who fights and works for our country and people! Thank you to everyone who helps us!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

🕯️ “She died saving the Ukrainian military.” A German doctor who saved wounded soldiers was buried in Ukraine

A medic from #Germany Diana Savita Wagner (call sign Snake) worked in the frontline areas with injured military personnel. She came to #Ukraine even before the full-scale invasion, learned Ukrainian and wanted to stay in the country. When the war started, Wagner voluntarily joined the #AFU.

On January 30, Diana was killed near Svatovo while rescuing Ukrainian soldiers. Her funeral was held on February 14, Valentine’s Day, in St. Michael’s Church in Kyiv. Military personnel from her unit and family members bid her farewell.

Here’s more on how the Ukrainians started their day.

Avdiivka:

 

Again: the House is in recess until 28 FEB 2024. The first of the stepped continuing resolutions expires on 1 MAR 2024. The second, which includes the DOD and the Department of State, expires on 8 MAR 2024.

Tatarigami and his team have a new assessment of the situation in Avdiivka. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

2/ Currently, Russian forces maintain a significant numerical advantage in both personnel and vehicles. Despite initial errors, high losses, and unrealistic expectations, they continuously replenish their troops with fresh recruits and preserve pressure 
3/ Russian troops incurred substantial casualties, prompting the 25th Combined Arms Army to transfer equipment to the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies for ongoing assaults.Image
4/ The situation improved for Russians upon entering the city in January, infiltrating residential areas with an element of surprise, seizing rear positions. Casualty ratios tend to equalize in urban areas.Image
5/ Lack of ammunition for counter-battery fire allowed large-scale deployment of Russian artillery, weakening Ukrainian defenses. Multiple groupings exploited weak spots for envelopment.Image
6/ Several units on the ground confirmed that recently captured POWs were recruited in December and January. Approximately 10 prisoners were recruited in mid-January 
7/ An estimated 37-42 KAB bombs were dropped on Avdiivka in a single day, causing extensive damage despite their relative inaccuracy.Image
8/ With Russians nearing the creation of multiple pockets in the city, limited options remain—withdraw or attempt a very risky counter-attack. 
9/ What’s next?

The most logical course of action at this point would be a withdrawal from Avdiivka. While viewed unfavorably politically, defending Avdiivka initially inflicted substantial damage on the Russian military, preventing them from advancing as deep as planned. 

10/ As of February 9, 2024, OSINT analyst @naalsio26 reported over 655 vehicles damaged, destroyed, or captured on the outskirts of Avdiivka. Between October 10th and November 28th, our team reported more than 211 damaged or abandoned Russian vehicles near Avdiivka.Image
11/ During this highly dynamic environment, the trajectory of the battle suggests an inevitable withdrawal of Ukrainian forces and the imminent fall of important defense positions such as Zenit. Barring any unexpected events, this chapter is likely to conclude soon. 
12/ Consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support, and maintaining quality without financing is still challenging for us. Thank you

Russian losses are staggering, if not critical. Both in vehicles and manpower.

They lost as many men taking Avdiivka as half of the town’s pre-war population, if not more.

This is why the relentless bot campaigns, employment of all available resources to prevent funding, activation of foreign agents on this platform, interviews with American propagandists, ceasefire talks. Their official channels are just full-on lies 24/7. No perspective.

If you read russian telegram, those who are not officially aligned are in awe of their losses. But we know from all the footage anyway.

Bucha:

Biysk, Altai, Russia:

Yesterday, Mike Turner, the Chair of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, kind of sort of disclosed/leaked that there was a major threat to the US and the Biden administration needed to declassify the information immediately. After a few hours of everyone going WTF? it seems that what had everyone spun up is some sort of Russian anti-satellite platform. And that the intelligence was partially collected via section 702 of FISA, which Turner wants renewed. Here’s one of the best explainers I’ve seen.

Apparently the House “centrists,” whatever that actually means,  have a plan to get something to supplemental through the House. Which you may heard is now on recess until the day before the first part of the continuing resolution expires and the government begins to shut down. NBC has the details.

WASHINGTON — After Speaker Mike Johnson rejected a Senate-passed national security package, centrist House Republican lawmakers said Thursday they will soon unveil their own bipartisan proposal that calls for new border policies coupled with critical military aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

“This is a really good piece of legislation. It’s pared down. It’s airtight. There’s really not a whole lot of area that anyone can criticize on this,” said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., though the group has yet to release the text. “And it’s bipartisan. It’s the only bipartisan solution in the House.”

Fitzpatrick, one of the moderate leaders on Capitol Hill, said he is working with Democrats on the House deal but has declined to identify them. He is the co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus, a bipartisan group of centrist lawmakers, but Fitzpatrick said that this was not a Problem Solvers product.

Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., a swing district lawmaker, said he worked with Fitzpatrick to craft the bill and hopes to release it soon. In addition to scaled-back aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, the package borrows language from the House GOP’s tough border bill, known as H.R. 2, members said.

That includes language relating to the “Remain in Mexico” policy that required some asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their claims were adjudicated. President Joe Biden ended the policy, which human rights groups said led migrants to face kidnappings and violence, when he took office and the Supreme Court upheld the move.

“It’s gonna be military aid only — Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel. And the Remain in Mexico policy using a lot of the wording from the H.R. 2. And we have Democrat buy-in,” Bacon said. “And I think this is a good spot to be if you’re Republican. You’re reducing the Senate bill by about 30%. So it’s fiscally more responsible. We know we got to do military aid to Ukraine or they’re going to fall, and it’ll cost us more if that happens. And we can deal with the border. So I just feel good about what we’re doing.”

I think I see the problem right here: (emphasis mine)

Fitzpatrick said he does not have a commitment from Johnson to bring the bill to the floor. He said he’d do “whatever it takes” to advance the bill but downplayed the idea of a using a discharge petition — a tool to bypass leadership and force a vote — instead suggesting a “queen of the hill” rule in which many bills can get a vote and the one with the largest number of votes is adopted.

“We have to talk to leadership or both parties and hopefully they’ll support it,” he said, adding that he doesn’t have a firm timeline.

But Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., who has threatened to force a vote to overthrow Johnson if he puts a Ukraine funding bill on the floor, said the moderates’ bill is all but dead.

“I’ll assure you: Ukraine aid is not coming to the floor,” she said Thursday in an interview.

Unlike the Senate package, which passed 70-29, the House bill does not include any humanitarian aid for those affected by war in Gaza, Ukraine and other hot spots; the aid is solely for military needs.

But Fitzpatrick said lawmakers are free to try to change the legislation through the amendment process.

“We can open up to amendments and everybody can get their votes and let the House do its will,” he said.

We have some good Ukrainian dog news. If you remember back when the Russians took down the dam across the Dnipro, a bedraggled struggling German Shepherd was pulled from the flood by Ukrainian military personnel. That very good girl named Bagira is doing well. The following thread has the details. I’m going to include the first tweet, which has the picture of Bagira shortly after she was rescued clinging to her rescuer’s leg, followed by the machine translation of that tweet and each tweet in the thread below it in a quote box.

Eight-year-old shepherd Bagira, who was rescued by volunteers after the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP, has found a new home in the Mykolaiv region. Before that, she lived in the Odessa recreation center “My Living Dogs”. dogs.” The head of the shelter Lyudmila Melnikova said that
the dog was saved

07/07/23 in Kherson. She had an injured ear and problems with her hind legs, she could not stand on them. According to the director of the center Lyudmila, they were able to put the sheepdog back on its feet at the end of September. Bagiris were looking for new owners for a long time, as they had to meet certain requirements.

“She is a hunter. These people who wanted to take her already had animals that she could hunt. During the search, preference was given to private houses, because the dog is not allowed steps, because it will be a test for her in the future, so we did not consider an apartment. The second criterion

it is a secure owner without other animals”
Ludmila noted that Baghira is currently in good condition – chipped, vaccinated and has a passport. She was handed over to a family in the Mykolayiv region, where, according to the woman, the animal lives in the house and the legs of the sofa were cut for her.

On February 13, we brought her to a new family. Before that, they had a shepherd dog for a long time, just a copy, unfortunately, died. She runs around their yard. We didn’t expect her to get used to them so quickly. We just brought her, they take her out of the cage and she starts licking the hands of her new owner”

Thanks to Anna Kurkurina and Lyudmila Melnikova for the rescued sick old shepherd! May God give you health!

Little dusty in here.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

We start with some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Якщо у вас сьогодні був поганий день – ось вам ще одне відео з мікропесом Патроном :) #песпатрон

♬ оригінальний звук – Cozy farm

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

If you had a bad day today, here’s another video with Patron the micro dog :) #песпатрон

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

42Comments

  1. 1.

    Alison Rose

    If Avdiivka does fall into russian control, it will be the fault of the United States alone. And apparently Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-The depths of hell and/or putin’s asshole) thinks that’s just fine. I won’t call her what I want to call her because I know some people don’t like the word. But I’m saying it out loud.

    And Mike Johnson needs to get kicked in the dick. I’ve still got my old platform boots from my club days. Bring him to my door and I’ll happily get it done.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  3. 3.

    Nukular Biskits

    Adam, you may not can speak about what Rep. Turner blurted out today, but my understanding is that Russians have had anti-satellite warfare capability for some  time.

    So … was this just a hamhanded ploy to gin up support (and a vote) for FISA reauthorization?

    Also, we’re migrating to uNMCI so it may be a while before I follow up with that email.

  8. 8.

    Nukular Biskits

    @japa21:

    Two days before a shutdown.

    Heard an interview with one of the kooks on the far right in the US House asserting this would be a good thing because they could use the threat of a gov’t shutdown to “secure the border” (whatever the fuck that actually means).

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Anonymous Biden Administration officials are telling WaPo that the Russian space based weapon is nuclear armed, not nuclear powered.

    With a dire warning, concerns rise about conflict in space with Russia

    Revelations that Russia may seeking to deploy a nuclear weapon in space raise fears that go back to Sputnik and the dawn of the Space Age.
    By Christian Davenport, Ellen Nakashima, Abigail Hauslohner and Shane Harris
    February 15, 2024 at 5:23 p.m. EST

    …
    The capability is a nuclear-armed — not a nuclear-powered — weapon, said two U.S. officials, who like others familiar with the intelligence spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. ABC News first reported that Russia was seeking to deploy a nuclear weapon.
    …

  14. 14.

    Subsole

    A nuke seems a little ridiculous for killing satellites, honestly.

    A can of gravel seems like it could do the job much, much more cheaply.

  17. 17.

    Bill Arnold

    @YY_Sima Qian:
    Intelligence agencies, including superpower-level intelligence agencies, can be a bit twitchy about hints about such things, and adversaries (and even pranksters (or both)) can take advantage of this. And heavily filtered (by classification and leaky discipline) hints further down the information chain can get pretty wild. Red mercury is a classic one; stories broadly emerged in the late 1980s, then diverged extremely widely
    Will be interesting to watch how the USA intelligence services deal with this one, an exotic-ASAT-system.

  18. 18.

    Bill Arnold

    @Nukular Biskits:

    Nuke-powered EW satellites makes a lot more sense than “nukular” weapons in space.

    Nuclear weapons designers have different measures of what is “sensible” than most people. Also (nuclear propulsion, but related): 9M730 Burevestnik, “a Russian nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile under development for the Russian Armed Forces. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the missile has an essentially unlimited range.”

  21. 21.

    Yutsano

    I was just thinking about it, and a nuclear warhead is very heavy. A nuclear device on a satellite would be even heavier. Could a Soyuz rocket get a payload like that into space without coming back down?

  24. 24.

    Bill Arnold

    @Nukular Biskits:
    I dropped a few links last night about 1960s/70s/80s proposals about nuclear (fission) devices as directed energy weapons. Also, there is the bomb-pumped x-ray laser work from the SDI program; reports were that it never achieved sufficient efficiency. But that was 4 decades ago. Tech, notably computer tech, has improved, by several/many orders of magnitude.
    But Russia’s concerns should be mainly about clusters/constellations of satellites, e.g. GPS or Starlink or similar.

  26. 26.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: From Arms Control Association

    The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which the Soviet Union signed, specifically prohibits nuclear weapons or any weapons of mass destruction in Space.

    The treaty entered into force Oct. 10, 1967, and has 110 states-parties, with another 89 countries that have signed it but have not yet completed ratification.

    If the Russians really did this, then they are not using ambiguity or shades of meaning. They are actually in flagrant violation of their International treaty obligations.

    I find it hard to believe that the Biden Administration would make assertions about this at this level of certitude without nearly 100% confidence. And yet, I cannot fathom how the Russians should be so colossally stupid as to invite a space arms race in which they ultimately cannot compete against China, let alone the United States. This action simply fails a sane strategic cost-benefit analysis. I can only assume that ultimately there is a more complicated story playing out here.

  27. 27.

    Another Scott

    @Nukular Biskits: I don’t see mention of the US using an F-15 to shoot down a satellite in 1985, either:

    On September 13, 1985, at 12:42 p.m., Major Wilbert “Doug” Pearson pushed the “pickle button” in the cockpit of his F-15A, launching a missile high over the Pacific Ocean. He was in a steep vertical climb, flying at just under Mach 1, and was at 36,000 feet. The missile roared toward its target, the Solwind P78-1 satellite moving at 17,500 mph, almost 300 miles above Pearson’s aircraft. As the missile disappeared from view, all Pearson could do was wait—he wouldn’t be able to see if it had hit the target. But his friend Scott in the control room would know. They worked out a code so Pearson could find out when he radioed Scott after the launch.

    Recalls Pearson: “I’d tell him ‘I’m going to level off at 36,000 feet.’ And if we’ve had a successful intercept, you’ll say, ‘Roger, Aggie-1 [Pearson’s call sign]. That’s a good altitude.’ And if we missed, you’ll say, ‘Roger, Aggie-1. Recommend you go to 28,000 feet’ or some different number. Well, Scott never had to say a word,” Pearson laughs. “He just keyed the microphone and I heard all the screaming and hollering and yelling and cheering in the background.”

    For the first time in history, a satellite had been shot out of space by an airplane. It remains a unique moment in the complicated, ever-evolving race between rival space powers. Although a fighter pilot earns the title “ace” only after five victories, Pearson’s unique, outside-the-atmosphere bull’s-eye could define a new space category.

    […]

    It’s no great feat to damage satellites (depending on the satellite size and altitude, of course).

    As @Bill Arnold: mentions, this rumor sounds an awful lot like recycling of Putin’s “super weapons” boasts from the late 20teens.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  28. 28.

    wjca

    @Subsole: If we work hard, come November we can give his dick the mother of all kicks.

    I’m thinking it might be fun to have someone run against him in the primary (it is, after all, a deep red district).  Making a big deal of him being manifestly incapable of getting anything done.

    Even if it doesn’t succeed, have opposition for the first time would not enhance his quality of life.

  31. 31.

    Andrya

    @wjca:  Louisiana does not have primaries in the usual sense- their “primary” is non-partisan.  If any candidate gets a majority of the vote in the “primary”, that candidate is elected.  If not, then the top two candidates advance to the general election.

    It might very likely be possible to select an opponent who would make Mike Johnson’s life miserable, but it’s a more complex calculation.

  32. 32.

    glc

    @Carlo Graziani:

    This action simply fails a sane strategic cost-benefit analysis.

    o.k.

    I can only assume that ultimately there is a more complicated story playing out here.

    Wait, what?

  33. 33.

    Bill Arnold

    Quoting Adam (and news reports), “And that the intelligence was partially collected via section 702 of FISA”.
    That is (in this context) saying that communications involving or more USA persons may have been involved.
    Anyone offering odds that big parts of this are objectively very silly? I might take one side of that bet.

  34. 34.

    Carlo Graziani

    @glc: Assuming bad faith on part of the Russian government amounts to betting at par. Assuming outright self-defeating stupidity is betting against the odds.

  35. 35.

    Another Scott

    @Carlo Graziani: Sure.

    But the point I was making was that it makes no sense as a weapon system.  If VVP puts some wonder weapon up in orbit, the USAF / USSF / USN can shoot it down.  Anything in orbit is vulnerable (easily predictable orbit, etc).

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  39. 39.

    Marc

    @Another Scott: But the point I was making was that it makes no sense as a weapon system.  If VVP puts some wonder weapon up in orbit, the USAF / USSF / USN can shoot it down.  Anything in orbit is vulnerable (easily predictable orbit, etc).

    It makes no sense as a weapon to shoot down a single military satellite. However, high energy charged particles emitted by a single radiation-enhanced nuclear device detonated at the right altitude would likely completely fry most commercial and scientific satellites in low earth orbit.  Bye-bye Starlink.

  40. 40.

    Eolirin

    Can’t Biden call the House back into session?

    Can he keep the house in session indefinitely if they try to recess?

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I agree w/ Another Scott. At this point, I don’t think Russia cares if he could win a space arms race or actual conflict in space. If the end result of a war in space is that the LEO is no longer safe for space flight, that brings the US, the EU & the PRC down to Russia’s level. Blowing up the Outer Space Treaty is just another step in demolishing any semblance of international order (such as it is).

    As long as Russia retains a credible nuclear deterrent, I don’t think Putin gives a damn about anything else.

  42. 42.

    wjca

    @Eolirin: Can’t Biden call the House back into session?

    Yes, he can.  Although until there are enough House members ready to force the bill to the floor, there wouldn’t be much point.  So I  expect that he and Jeffries are in close communication on that.

    I also hope that whatever munitions we can provide under the bill have already been staged to US bases in Europe.  And preferably liaded on planes, ready to go.

Comments are closed.