It’s been a long day, so I’m going to try to keep tonight’s update on the brief side.

Have I mentioned that Mike Johnson sent the House of Representatives home for a two week vacation? That we’re eight days away from the first four federal agencies shutting down and fifteen days away from the rest of the federal government shutting down?

Here’s the price being paid:

We hear about shell hunger, but it can be hard to understand how that translates to the fate of day-to-day operations on the battlefield. I spoke to the people on the ground, for @KyivIndependent. Spoiler: It's bad and getting worse.https://t.co/822gH0pPMc

— Francis Farrell (@francisjfarrell) February 22, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)

DONETSK OBLAST – Hiding beneath sparse winter cover in a crude, muddy ditch, a great steel monster lies in wait for an opportunity to attack.

Adorned on either side with painted plus signs, the gun’s huge barrel looks up at the sky over the Bakhmut front line, across which thousands of shells, rockets, missiles, and drones fly back and forth each day.

The weapon, serving in the hands of Ukraine’s legendary 93rd Mechanized Brigade is a U.S.-built M109 self-propelled howitzer, better known as the Paladin.

Over winter, Russian forces have been on the offensive in the area, pushing past the ruined Bakhmut towards the Ukrainian stronghold of Chasiv Yar.

On this day in early February, despite the near-constant sounds of fighting nearby, the Paladin stays silent.

Assaults on Ukrainian positions are carried out on a daily basis, but the shells lined up in the gun’s storage racks are only used when absolutely necessary.

Bit by bit as Russia’s full-scale war progressed, Western howitzers like the Paladin, which shoot the 155mm shells standard to all NATO armies, have largely replaced Ukraine’s legacy Soviet-era artillery pieces.

Kyiv has received hundreds of 155mm howitzers to deploy along an active front line stretching over 1,200 kilometers across the country.

With their overall increased accuracy compared to Russian artillery pieces, the weapons have been crucial in keeping Ukraine in the fight against an enemy with a marked ammunition advantage.

Now, despite having plenty of guns themselves, Ukraine is running out of shells, and the situation is slowly growing desperate.

As the transition toward NATO-standard artillery progressed, Ukraine’s military relied largely on shells from U.S. stocks, boosted by those bought from outside the alliance, particularly from South Korea.

Seeing the urgent need, European countries have moved to scale up production in their own countries, but have been widely criticized for the time taken to do so.

With the blockade by Republicans of U.S. military aid funding for Ukraine since late last year, the lack of new deliveries is sorely felt on the battlefield.

As both Washington and Kyiv have noted, one of the main reasons for recent Russian success in taking the city of Avdiivka, Moscow’s first major territorial gains since May last year, has been Ukraine’s shortage of artillery ammunition.

The Kyiv Independent spoke to 155mm artillery commanders in two separate brigades fighting in Donetsk Oblast to understand how shell hunger had begun to impact the day-to-day flow of the battlefield.

Across Ukraine’s vast land forces, with different levels of intensity in different sectors of the front line, it can often be difficult to visualize how shell hunger affects the work of Ukrainian forces on a tactical level.

By now, said 36-year-old Paladin crew commander Vitalii “Skyba,” whose last name is not disclosed as per the rules of the unit, the difference between Ukraine’s and Russia’s ammunition availability is acutely felt.

“It feels like we shoot only when we see a target, while their guns are firing 24/7, they dismantle whole villages just for fun,” he said.

“We can’t work like that, we often get only three shells to hit a target and the expectation is that that will be enough, whereas they can easily fire 20 shells at one target.”

Sometimes, Skyba added, targets that would normally be obvious choices to be engaged with artillery are left alone because of the need to be frugal.

“If they spot five enemy soldiers standing together, that’s not always enough to give the order to fire these days,” he said.

“Our command does its best to get us to support our infantry. It would be great if we could work non-stop like the Russians, but we can’t.”

Twenty kilometers south of Chasiv Yar, the Kyiv Independent also spoke with Roman Holodivskyi, battery commander in the 43rd Artillery Brigade, which has divisions deployed across the front line and transitioned completely from Soviet-era Pion howitzers to German-made PzH2000 self-propelled guns.

Holodivskyi, whose seniority provides a wider view on the ammunition situation that crew commanders like Skyba may lack, also reported receiving limits on how many shells can be used on a target.

“Last time I commanded a fire mission personally, we saw an enemy assault group, it was the perfect distance to work. I asked for permission to engage from my senior commander, and also asked for the maximum expenditure,” he said.

“They gave me permission to fire five shells. That’s three to dial in, and two to actually damage. If we had been allowed 10 shells for that large enemy grouping, it would have been obliterated, but like that, we only managed to give them a bite.”

Even while working as miserly as possible, Ukrainian howitzers’ current rate of fire is unsustainable.

When 155mm shells were more available, Holodivskyi’s unit saved up a reserve, which he is now forced to begin using up.

“Now, the stores that we saved up are only half-full, and they deliver a lot fewer and a lot less often,” he said.

Much more at the link!

As I have repeatedly said, if this war is lost it will not be lost by the Ukrainians, nor will it be lost in the Donbas or Kherson or Zaporizhzhia. Rather, it will be lost in Washington, DC, in Berlin, and in other EU and NATO member states’ capitols.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The more insane statements we hear from Moscow, the greater our force must be – address by the President of Ukraine

22 February 2024 – 22:23

Today, the day began with a meeting of the Staff. Not only about the current operational situation on the frontline, but also about other strategic issues, including our country’s preparation for the transition to F-16s – there was a special report on this. All the parameters for the first batch of aircraft: specific delivery dates, the necessary technical and infrastructure support. The details are positive. This year, our Air Force will become stronger, and this is a fundamental task. Specifically, this means protection against Russian guided bombs and new capabilities on the frontline in general. Of course, today’s meeting also included reports from the Commander-in-Chief, intelligence, the Minister of Defense and other government officials responsible for armaments. Special attention was paid to Avdiivka and the southern areas.

Today, I met with representatives of our partner countries – members of the diplomatic corps working in Ukraine. It is very important that in our capital, in our country, normal diplomatic work continues, even routine work between Ukrainian diplomats and foreign representatives, between our institutions and international organizations. And I am grateful to every state, every leader whose representatives are in Ukraine and with Ukraine. This is a testament to faith in our country, respect for the Ukrainian people, and trust in our strength and ability to achieve Ukrainian goals. We talked, among other things, about the need for clear and principled cooperation for the sake of implementing the Peace Formula, for greater security for Ukraine and for each of our countries, and for the sake of Ukraine’s internal transformation. By the way, we are also working to expand our representation in the world. Last year, we opened new Ukrainian embassies in Africa and generally achieved a higher level of interaction with leaders and countries on the African continent. For this year, we aim to increase our engagement and potential for cooperation, particularly in Latin America.

Today I spoke with President of the European Council Charles Michel. We had a very specific conversation, focused primarily on our common interests, the interests of all Europeans. I am grateful to you, Charles, Mr. President, for your absolute constructiveness. First, the situation on the border with Poland is utterly unacceptable. I informed him of the Ukrainian initiative to hold an immediate meeting between the representatives of Ukraine, Poland, as well as the European Commission at the border. I am grateful for the support and willingness to make every effort to safeguard the interests of European security and return the situation to a purely legal framework as soon as possible. It is worth negotiating, and Ukraine’s proposals are quite concrete. Second. We discussed with Charles, with Mr. President, our efforts towards European integration and the need for the negotiation framework for Ukraine to be approved as soon as possible – approved by the EU member states. The goal is absolutely rational – we can start the negotiation process in the first half of the year, even by June. And this will be the best signal to all those who do not believe in Europe that our unity is really getting stronger.

One more thing.

Today I would like to recognize several countries for their support packages for Ukraine. Denmark – the 15th defense package has been announced. Ammunition, drones, reinforcement for our warriors. Thank you. I appreciate that all our agreements with Mette, Mrs. Prime Minister of Denmark, are being perfectly implemented. The United Kingdom – there is an announcement about the preparation of a package. In particular, it will contribute to repelling Russian assaults. There is a package from New Zealand that will strengthen our logistics, intelligence and communications. And also for support in training our warriors.

The more insane statements we hear from Moscow, the greater our force must be. It is only the power of our defense of life, our ability to achieve our own goals that can bring Russia back to a state of at least partial sobriety. Russian madness must lose this war. We will do everything for this. I am grateful to everyone who fights for Ukraine, works for Ukraine and helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Two years. We are all here 🇺🇦

Together with representatives of Algeria, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Egypt, Estonia, the EU, Finland, France, Georgia,… pic.twitter.com/tSFwMlIhHw

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 22, 2024

Two years. We are all here 🇺🇦

Together with representatives of Algeria, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Egypt, Estonia, the EU, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, the Holy See, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Korea, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, the Netherlands, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Norway, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sudan, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Thailand, Türkiye, the UAE, the United Kingdom, the USA, Viet Nam, as well as international organisations, the WHO, WFP, EUMAM, the UN system, IBRD, EIB, ILO, ICRC, IOM, NATO, OSCE, CoE, UNDP, UNFPA, FAO, UNHCR, UNOCHA, UNICEF, and others.

By mid-March the the shell-hunger will be a shell famine.

US estimates Ukraine military shortages could grow catastrophic by late March https://t.co/UjqmPqgY07

— Ellie Kaufman (@EllieCKaufman) February 22, 2024

From ABC News: (emphasis mine)

By spring, Ukraine faces a potentially catastrophic shortage of ammunition and air defenses that could effectively turn the tide of the war and lend Russian President Vladimir Putin a significant advantage, according to an internal U.S. estimate.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, two U.S. officials described “late March” as being a particularly crucial time for the fate of Ukrainian troops if Congress doesn’t pass a new aid bill. A third official said it would be difficult to pinpoint exactly when the situation for Ukrainian troops could worsen but noted that the shortages were expected to grow more dire through spring.

“The juncture starts now and it just keeps getting worse progressively through the spring and into summer. So, this time period that we are entering is a critical time period,” said a senior U.S. defense official.

The U.S. assessment comes nearly two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and as support for Ukraine in Congress and in the American public is fading. The once-steady flow of cash and weapons from the U.S. — totaling some $44 billion since the invasion — has mostly dried up. A separate $60 billion aid package requested by President Joe Biden and passed by the Senate is in limbo in the House as some Republicans loyal to Donald Trump question America’s commitment to another far-away conflict entering its third year.

The White House this week directly blamed the hold up for Russia’s victory in the eastern city of Avdiivka. The town fell to last weekend after Ukrainian troops there were forced to ration ammunition, handing the Kremlin its first major military victory since last May.

“It was because of congressional inaction,” said White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby on Ukraine’s loss. “And we’ve been warning Congress that if they didn’t act, Ukraine would suffer losses on the battlefield and here you go. That’s what happened this weekend.”

U.S. officials predict similar scenarios will play out elsewhere in Ukraine as the government there is forced to make tough choices on where to put its remaining air defenses — and as Russia makes greater use of its airpower, including lobbing satellite-guided glide-bombs much as it was in Avdiivka.

“The things that are protected today — they will not be able to protect all of these locations in the future if they don’t maintain supplies of interceptors,” the senior defense official said. And if Russia gains control of the skies, “it completely changes the nature of this fight.”

Added one Ukrainian official: “Our primary goal is to deter Russian aviation. If we can’t do that, it’s time to pack our things.”

But officials say Ukraine urgently needs both small and large munitions, including the GPS-guided rockets that make the HIMARS launchers effective.

Another concern is Ukraine’s air defense capability, including supplies to protect the donated F-16 jets slated for deployment later this year. Officials say the country also still needs money to build the infrastructure to support the fighters — including runways and hangers to store the jets. And while the U.S. is helping to train some pilots — described by one U.S. official as “fewer than 10” — there wouldn’t be enough money to bring on more in the future without additional U.S. aid.

Behind much of the GOP hesitation to support Ukraine is Trump, who has said it would be “stupid” to provide foreign aid to countries instead of loans. He also has encouraged Russia to attack NATO allies if they don’t contribute enough to their defense spending — a provocation quickly decried by U.S. allies in Europe as dangerous.

Complicating matters in the U.S. is that the Pentagon itself is set to run out of money on March 8 if Congress is unable to agree on annual spending legislation. House Republicans have insisted upon unspecified border policy provisions and deep cuts in domestic spending opposed by the Senate and White House.

While ABC News places the blame on Congressional Republicans, especially in the House, and Trump, you’ll notice that Jake Sullivan just blamed it on Congress.

Reuters has reported that the Biden administration spent most of the past week at the Munich Security Conference trying to convince skeptical and nervous US allies and partners, including the Ukrainians, that a supplemental aid package would pass. Frankly, the Biden administration have very little control over this. (emphasis mine)

WASHINGTON, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Top Biden administration officials spent last weekend in Europe trying to soothe jitters over the prospect of U.S. military aid to Ukraine ending, assuring counterparts from Paris, Berlin and Kyiv as the war enters its third year that Washington will somehow come through.

Just two days later, the Republican Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, who has so far blocked passage of a bill that includes $60 billion in new funding for Ukraine, posted a picture of himself smiling with former Republican President Donald Trump, who has opposed aid for Kyiv.

The contrast underscored the challenges facing the Biden administration if Congress fails to approve more military assistance, which Ukraine desperately needs to hold off Russian invaders.

So far, President Joe Biden’s administration has ruled out discussing a plan B.

Trump, frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination and a long-standing critic of the NATO alliance, has in recent weeks threatened to abandon some European allies if they were to be attacked by Russia.

As Vice President Kamala Harris and other administration officials projected confidence last week at a Western security gathering in Munich, Kyiv was losing territory to Russia. Moscow took control on Sunday of the town of Avdiivka, its biggest gain in the past nine months.

“This happened in large part because Ukraine was running out of weapons due to congressional inaction,” Biden National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday, warning of worse to come if lawmakers do not act.

The Senate last week approved a $95 billion bill providing assistance for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan by an overwhelming 70-30 vote, with 22 Republicans joining most Democrats in voting “aye.” But Johnson sent the House home for a two-week recess without bringing the measure up for a vote.

Since then, Senate Republicans and Democrats have joined those urging passage of the aid.

If approved, the funding would bring the total U.S. investment in the conflict to $170 billion, although Congress has not approved any major aid for Ukraine since Republicans took control of the House in January 2023.

Nearly two-thirds of the $60 billion would go to U.S. companies that make military equipment for Ukraine, much of it to replace materiel already sent east.

The House is unlikely to consider security assistance before mid-March.

Republican House members have said they do not want to take up the broad $95 billion national security supplemental as it is, although members of both parties acknowledge it would pass easily if Johnson allowed a vote.

Johnson voted repeatedly against aid for Ukraine before he became House speaker last year.

“At the end of the day, I do think there’s still a majority in the House that will pass this, it just has to come to the floor,” Representative Michael McCaul, the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a backer of Ukraine aid, recently told reporters.

Johnson has suggested he wants to break the security aid legislation into separate bills for Ukraine and Israel, although two previous House bills providing aid only to Israel have failed.

Changes would further delay aid for Ukraine as any new measure passed by the House must also be approved by the Senate before it can be sent to the White House for Biden’s signature.

Other Republicans suggested the House might amend the Senate bill. McCaul said one possibility was adding a provision – known as the REPO Act – to confiscate Russian assets and hand them to Ukraine.

Another is converting economic assistance for Ukraine from a grant to a loan, something backed by Trump.

Some House members have threatened to use a procedural tool known as a discharge petition to get around the Speaker. That would need several House Republicans to oppose their leader, so even Ukraine supporters said they did not expect such an effort before other options were exhausted.

If Congress fails to act, Biden appears to have few good options for supporting Ukraine.

The administration has so far refused to discuss any “Plan B”, instead focusing on the supplemental.

“There is no magic solution to this, absent Congress appropriating funding,” Sullivan said.

One U.S. official said the administration was “doing everything it can” to meet immediate contingencies and ensure that the assistance Washington is providing helps Ukraine address shortages on the battlefield.

First, a discharge petition is not going to happen. The last couple of times this was tried for different legislation that allegedly had support of the majority of the House it failed. Second, what is happening now is not Plan A and the Biden folks are reluctant to discuss Plan B. What is happening now is Plan D. Plan A was the Democrats would keep the majority in both chambers in the 2022 midterms and the Democratic controlled House would quickly send a supplemental Ukraine aid bill to the Democratic controlled Senate in February or March of 2023. Plan A failed when the Democrats, as predicted, lost the House in the midterms because you CANNOT out organize extreme gerrymanders and extreme voter suppression. Plan B was the Biden administration and the Democratic majority Senate would be able to still get a supplemental Ukrainian aid bill through because a majority of the House Republicans, including Speaker McCarthy, supported Ukraine. Plan B failed when it became clear that Speaker McCarthy was going to do as little as possible legislatively in order to remain Speaker while doing everything he could to be a (nasally) vocal lying, obnoxious pain in the ass. Plan C was to then bundle supplemental aid to Ukraine with supplemental aid to Taiwan and, after 7 October 2023, supplemental aid to Israel and humanitarian aid to Gazan Palestinians with significant immigration and border control revisions. Plan C failed when Speaker Johnson made it clear he would not bring it to a vote in the House, Trump began working Senate Republicans as he doesn’t want anything to interfere with his signature bullshit campaign issue, and Senator McConnell decided he wouldn’t have his minority caucus members take a hard vote that would hurt them in the 2024 elections for something that would never be brought to a vote in the House. Plan D, which is where things sort of still are, was to then strip the immigration and border control language from the legislation and just push supplemental aid to Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, and humanitarian aid to the Gazan Palestinians. In about eight to fifteen days Plan D is going to fail as well. There is no Plan E, which is why the Biden administration is not talking about it.

Russia, on the other hand, is able to source whatever it seems to need from Iran, as well as North Korea,. Despite sanctions on all three states.

Kirby: We have no reason to believe they will not follow through. If Iran proceeds with this provision of ballistic missiles, ..response will be swift and severe. we will take matter to unsc, implement additional sanctions and coordinate further response options w allies +prtnrs

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) February 22, 2024

The obvious answer would be sanctions on export to Iran of all drone and missile components, and the speedy delivery of the missiles that Ukraine has been asking for.

— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) February 22, 2024

A reminder that Russia is using North Korean and Iranian missiles and drones to strike cities across Ukraine every day but Ukraine remains prohibited from using American and European weapons to strike military targets in Russia because OMG escalation.

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) February 22, 2024

WASHINGTON, Feb 22 (Reuters) – The United States will impose sanctions on over 500 targets on Friday in action marking the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo told @DPsaledakis @andrea_shalal and @davelawder

— Steve Holland (@steveholland1) February 22, 2024

Well that’ll teach those pesky Russians!

I don’t know about you, but my nerves have definitely been soothed and all my jitters have gone away.

Despite being repeatedly failed by those who promised unfailing and unwavering support, the Ukrainians are trying to maintain a gracious and grateful face:

The defense forces received new M113 armored personnel carriers, which are equipped to evacuate wounded soldiers from the battlefield.

Dozens of these armored evacuation vehicles have already arrived in Ukraine. Several hundred more are expected in the near future.

We are… pic.twitter.com/mDGIRiH7BQ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 22, 2024

The defense forces received new M113 armored personnel carriers, which are equipped to evacuate wounded soldiers from the battlefield.

Dozens of these armored evacuation vehicles have already arrived in Ukraine. Several hundred more are expected in the near future.

We are grateful to our partners for their support. Together, we bring Victory closer!

The FH-70 155mm howitzer, provided for #UAarmy by our 🇮🇹 and 🇪🇪 partners, is destroying the occupier's ammunition field store. 

📹: Operational Command West pic.twitter.com/e9ebuAUIZw

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 22, 2024

New Zealand:

🇳🇿🇺🇦 New Zealand has announced another $25.9 million (16 million US dollars) in support to Ukraine.

This package includes funds to extend the NZDF personnel deployment to train Ukrainian troops until June 2025. In addition, New Zealand donates $6.5 million (4 million US dollars)… pic.twitter.com/LWU0iemgXT

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 22, 2024

🇳🇿🇺🇦 New Zealand has announced another $25.9 million (16 million US dollars) in support to Ukraine.

This package includes funds to extend the NZDF personnel deployment to train Ukrainian troops until June 2025. In addition, New Zealand donates $6.5 million (4 million US dollars) to the United Kingdom-administered International Fund for Ukraine to procure weapons and ammunition.

We are grateful to our friends from New Zealand for their unwavering support.
The power of unity brings Victory closer.

New Zealand are, quite simply, the single best military to train Ukraine for what it will need to do based on what the Kiwis are the best at. Everyone has heard of Kilcullen (full disclosure: I know him, but not well, seems nice enough) and he’s a sharp guy, but the Kiwis are the real deal. I had the honor and privilege of being the professor of two of their current generals and in my professional opinion the Ukrainians could not do better.

Denmark:

More good news from Denmark!@Forsvarsmin announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at up to DKK 1.7 billion ($247 million).
It is the 15th package of military equipment, which includes 15,000 artillery shells, ammunition for air defense, mine clearance, and drones.… pic.twitter.com/sGS4t7xoDy

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 22, 2024

More good news from Denmark! @Forsvarsmin
announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at up to DKK 1.7 billion ($247 million).
It is the 15th package of military equipment, which includes 15,000 artillery shells, ammunition for air defense, mine clearance, and drones.

Thank you for standing by our side.
Together, we are stronger.

The first Danish F-16 combat aircraft are expected to be handed over to Ukraine this summer — @Forsvarsmin.

We are waiting for F-16s in the Ukrainian sky.
We prepare and train to use them as efficiently as possible.

We are grateful to our Danish partners for their leadership… pic.twitter.com/WdfMKajI5z

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 22, 2024

The first Danish F-16 combat aircraft are expected to be handed over to Ukraine this summer —
@Forsvarsmin.

We are waiting for F-16s in the Ukrainian sky.
We prepare and train to use them as efficiently as possible.

We are grateful to our Danish partners for their leadership and unwavering support.

📹: Haci production

This is all very positive and it will be wonderful if they finish the upgrades on the F-16s in time to meet this deadline. But the training for the pilots and crews, as well as the upgrades, should have begun in mid 2022 so the Ukrainians would have been ready to receive the F-16s in Fall 2023 weeks after the announcement was made.

We are where we are because of risk aversion, strategic timidity, and strategic malpractice.

Kharkiv!

🚨Several Shahed drones reportedly detected in direction of Kharkiv!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) February 22, 2024

And again… https://t.co/9uLlXdWewS

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) February 22, 2024

Kharkiv’s children rush to the metro school from the bus amidst air sirens. With just 5% attending classes in person, a new underground school, devoid of natural light and windows, is under construction. Another grim impact of Russia’s war. pic.twitter.com/4c5ohVIUfP

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 22, 2024

Avdiivka:

Episode from the withdrawal from Avdiivka by warriors of the 110th Brigade. As is clear from the footage, even smaller units were managed and supported by the command via radio comms. pic.twitter.com/sSjZFUZRS6

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 22, 2024

West of Avdiivka:

Destruction of enemy dismounts in Lastochkyne, west of Avdiivka, by combined arms of the 3rd Assault Brigade on 21 February 2024.

Enemy forces attempt to continue erratic assaults after the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka.

35 – 200
9 – capturedhttps://t.co/PEglm0b8un pic.twitter.com/iDWNdX3zUn

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 22, 2024

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Damaged and abandoned Russian Т-54B. Robotyne area, Zaporizhzhia front. https://t.co/IWnnDrfbnC pic.twitter.com/MtposEdeUU

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 22, 2024

Chornyanka, Kherson Oblast:

Strike on the Russian ZALA UAV operators. Chornyanka, Kherson region. ~14km from the frontline. https://t.co/9htL4rfy21 pic.twitter.com/nnU1xua6gG

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 22, 2024

Mykhailivka, Kherson Oblast:

Destruction of two Russian air defence systems: 9K35 Strela-10 and TOR-M1. Near Mykhailivka, Kherson region. ~33km from the frontline. https://t.co/XMIAe92sJq pic.twitter.com/VNpYKK3qGk

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 22, 2024

Ol’khovatka, Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

Tatarigami has a new assessment regarding why Ukraine needs longer range munitions like TAURUS and ATACMS missiles. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Given recent TAURUS and ATACMS missile developments for Ukraine, I would like to share useful insights previously available to our paid subscribers, explaining the importance of Ukraine's ability to target locations within Russia

🧵Thread (Kindly like, share, and follow): pic.twitter.com/JYYVvu25Sj

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 22, 2024

2/ A previously abandoned farm in Ol’khovatka, Voronezh Oblast, near the Ukraine border, started to show some signs of activity in late July 2023. By the summer’s end, it was fully occupied, with ammo crates filling the dugouts. In November imagery, the facility is still used

3/ The presence of ammunition packaging debris suggests that certain containers are opened and unpacked at this location.

4/ Further analysis reveals that Russians are also storing S-300 canisters and other larger ammunition, potentially identified by our team as Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) ammo.

5/ Located approximately 50 km from the border, this facility likely serves as a supply source for Air Defense units as well as other units. Furthermore, there is a possibility that the ammunition is utilized by S-300 units for surface-to-surface strikes. 

6/ Like other Russian locations, this facility, remains forbidden to be targeted by Western missiles. Producing long-range missiles is a difficult task for Ukraine in current conditions. UAVs are an alternative, but their payload and ability to evade AD-EW measures are limited.

7/ In summary, our team has observed a consistent pattern since 2022, with Russian forces actively repurposing abandoned or non-functional facilities for operations in occupied territories and along the border. Some sites rotate, while others expand as permanent fixtures. 

8/ Russian forces aim to enhance their logistical structure, resulting in a more robust and decentralized system. If this trend persists, the Ukrainian army will face significant challenges in 2025, making it difficult to conduct large offensive operations. 

9/ Consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support.

As an alternative, consider subscribing to our premium service on X to receive additional and exclusive content, similar to what we’ve just presented

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

More Russian Starlink news:

Russian mil. reporter is fundraising for 2 Starlinks. In his post, he reveals the cost of both units + 6-month subscription at 219k rubles (£1900).

Basic hardware and the cheapest plan cost £1348 in the UK so they're overpaying around 40%.

He says the "channel is verified".… pic.twitter.com/svT6NY3YJz

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 22, 2024

Russian mil. reporter is fundraising for 2 Starlinks. In his post, he reveals the cost of both units + 6-month subscription at 219k rubles (£1900).

Basic hardware and the cheapest plan cost £1348 in the UK so they’re overpaying around 40%.

He says the “channel is verified”. The system is used for live reconnaissance, image is transmitted to headquarters.

Medvedev got into the bathtub vodka again!

"Where to stop? I do not know. I think that, taking into account what I said, we will still have to work a lot and seriously. Will it be Kyiv? Yes, probably, it should be Kyiv. If not now, then in some time. For two reasons. Kyiv is a Russian city, and from there comes the threat… pic.twitter.com/DkwhoUTQbJ

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 22, 2024

Tweet 1:

“Odesa, come back home. We have longed for Odesa in the Russian Federation, even because of the history of this city, what people live there, what language they speak. This is our Russian city,” Dmitry Medvedev said.

This is what living and thinking in a parallel universe looks like.

Tweet 2:

“Where to stop? I do not know. I think that, taking into account what I said, we will still have to work a lot and seriously. Will it be Kyiv? Yes, probably, it should be Kyiv. If not now, then in some time. For two reasons. Kyiv is a Russian city, and from there comes the threat of the existence of the Russian Federation. It is an international threat, because even though Kyiv is a Russian city by its roots, it is controlled by an international brigade of Russia’s opponents headed by the United States of America.”

More seriously, if Medvedev and others are saying this, they are planning for this.  Which is why this is bubbling up again:

These days, I can't shake this unsettling déjà vu, much like the days before an invasion. And now, this news: "On February 28th, Tiraspol will ask Moscow to annex Transnistria to Russia." pic.twitter.com/YftE2lCzgQ

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 22, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

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I don’t get this one.

Open thread!