(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The third year of Ukraine’s defense against Putin’s and Russia’s genocidal re-invasion has begun.
How we see it pic.twitter.com/Ys4LUJXPVh
— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 24, 2024
2 years ago, russia started a full-scale war against our people and state.
The enemy planned to destroy us in three days. But Ukrainian unity and bravery broke an aggressor's plan.
In two years, we eliminated more than 400,000 thousands of russian personnel, destroyed almost… pic.twitter.com/ysHJPFWhLA
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 24, 2024
2 years ago, russia started a full-scale war against our people and state.
The enemy planned to destroy us in three days. But Ukrainian unity and bravery broke an aggressor’s plan.
In two years, we eliminated more than 400,000 thousands of russian personnel, destroyed almost 7,000 tanks and 10,000 artillery systems. We sank the cruiser Moskva and shot down two “no-analogue” A-50 planes. We liberated our cities.
We are grateful to every country, leader, and person who has stood—and continues to stand—with Ukraine.
We fight for our freedom.
Ukraine will win!
Approximately 400,000 russians should’ve listened more closely to her warning on February 24, 2022 pic.twitter.com/M18SQMUbOU
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) February 24, 2024
A grim milestone: 2 years ago this morning, Russian bombs began raining down & troops stormed into Ukraine in a full-scale invasion of a European country. But it also marks 10 years of a Russian war that has devastated millions of lives, destroyed entire cities, shaken the world. pic.twitter.com/wO0rcO3XsL
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 24, 2024
We should not forget that while the third year of the re-invasion begins today, this is actually the tenth year of Russia’s invasion and occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk and the illegal annexation of Crimea. I know the start dates for those events are normally recognized as being in the spring, but the medals that Putin awarded actually date to February of 2014. This most likely reflects the covert infiltration of the Little Green Men into Ukraine. It also reflects that Putin believes that the end of the EuroMaidan Movement protests and the beginning of the overthrow of Yanukovych’s corrupt regime as the beginning of his initial war on Ukraine.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We are 730 days closer to victory – address by the President of Ukraine
24 February 2024 – 12:22
Glory to Ukraine!
I am currently in Hostomel.
From here was supposed to begin that particular “take Kyiv and Ukraine in three days” scenario. It can be said in one sentence: two years ago, we met hostile landing with fire here; two years later, we welcome our friends and partners here.
Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni, Chair of the G7 Presidency. Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. Alexander De Croo, Prime Minister of Belgium, currently holding the presidency over the Council of the EU. This is symbolic. And it eloquently describes the path we have traveled over these two years and the difference between February 24th then and now.
You know, involuntarily, today every Ukrainian remembers that day. And each of us has their own February 24th. A unique memory of that day. How you woke up, who first wrote you and asked, “How are you?” who you first called, who you gave a hearty hug, what you said to your closest people then, and most importantly – what you did next.
Millions of different stories, but many have a similar episode. It’s the choice made by Ukrainians of different ages, professions, and regions. And it’s what brought people together: first in lines at the military enlistment office, and then in one trench on the front line. To defend the country.
And all those who stayed to work in the country. Who left the country, and who then returned.
And so, it’s been for two years. We have become 730 days closer to victory. Some are waiting for a prophet to tell them when it will come, but millions of Ukrainians simply remember the words of Kobzar: keep fighting – you are sure to win! And they have been following this for 730 days of dedication and courage. They are forged in the east, south, and north, in all directions where our soldiers fight. 730 days of resilience and endurance. They stand as pillars in all civilian cities and villages. And today, each of us will call our families. To hear loved ones’ voices, to wish each other what we’ve been waiting for. And today, unfortunately, each of us has someone to mourn.
And to honor their memory. And together, we bow our heads. 730 days of pain. But at the same time, 730 days of hope. For the highest justice. Which lies in the fact that we all have different stories of the beginning of the war, but there must be one final of this war. Victory. And remembering everything we’ve been through these two years – you understand: there can be no other way. Remembering what Ukrainians have already done – you know that we can definitely do it. It’s within our power. We will succeed. And here, in this place, you understand best – metal may not withstand, but Ukrainians do. You can burn the plane, but you cannot destroy the dream. The dream with which each of us falls asleep and wakes up for 730 days, with which you, all our citizens, all Ukrainians fall asleep.
A nation that endured in the first three days. And didn’t fall on the fourth. And fought for the fifth day. And then a month. And then six months. And now two years. Battles for freedom. Battles for life. Heroically fought by incredible people, to whom I always address in my speeches: Great people, of a great country.
I am incredibly proud of each of you. I admire each of you. I believe in each of you. Any normal person wants the war to end. But none of us will allow our Ukraine to end. That’s why when it comes to ending the war, we always add – on our terms. That’s why next to the word “peace,” the word “just” always sounds. That’s why in future history, next to the word Ukraine, the word “independent” will always stand. We fight for this. And we will prevail. On the best day of our lives. Thank you to all our soldiers. Thank you to our people. And to everyone in the world who stands by us and with truth.
Glory to Ukraine!
-European 🇪🇺 Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
-Canada’s 🇨🇦 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
-Former UK 🇬🇧 Prime Minister Boris Johnson
-Italy’s 🇮🇹 Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
-Belgium’s 🇧🇪 Prime Minister Croo
Are in Kyiv, Ukraine 🇺🇦 for the 2nd anniversary of the war
— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) February 24, 2024
And here is his address to the leaders of the G7. Video followed by the English transcript.
We must be united just as our common victory demands – address of the President of Ukraine to the G7 leaders
24 February 2024 – 19:26
Dear colleagues!
First, I want to thank you on behalf of all Ukrainians for the vital support for our nation and people. Thanks to our cooperation, millions in Ukraine and in neighboring countries around Russia can feel that their homeland will not become Putin’s backyard.
We started this way together two years ago, not sure what challenges would lie-ahead. But now, we can clearly say that our leadership is sufficient to restore security. When the world’s leading democracies are truly determined, this determination overcomes all challenges.
We have already achieved much – and the world feels that Putin can lose this war. And when he loses, it will mean that not just someone wins, but the entire global community of nations – and international law as such – will prevail. We must ensure this.
Please remember that imperial ambitions and revanchism can be defeated only together with those infected by them, and this is what opens the space for true security and the development of democracy. We hear now – “history is watching,” – and this is absolutely true.
I thank you for these two years together. That terrible day of February 24th and the horror brought by Russia, still did not deprive Ukraine of a normal future. We stood against the strikes. We are reclaiming what belongs to us, and will certainly make the Putin-system pay the proper price for every Russian evil.
But we must be decisive – exactly as necessary for our common success. We must keep the principle – just so that justice wins. We must be active and tireless exactly as what it takes to protect as many human lives as possible. And we must be united just as our victory demands – our common victory.
Georgia, I am grateful to you for this joint format today. I wish Italy a productive presidency in the Group of Seven. I am confident – this year we will not only implement every agreement already reached, but also add to our cooperation. Ursula, Madam President; Justin, Mr. Prime Minister; Charles, Mr. President; Olaf, Mr. Chancellor; Rishi, Mr. Prime Minister; Prime Minister Kishida; and of course, President Biden; and Minister Sejourne and all of France – I thank each of you for your leadership, for your engagement and for making the world keep the trust in you.
You know very well all we need to keep our sky protected; to strengthen our military on the land; and you know all we need to sustain and continue our success in the sea; and you know perfectly well that we need all this in time. We count on you.
Thank you!
Cлава Україні!
Ukraine is definitely stronger now than it was two years ago. Today, we signed another security agreement, which strengthens the position of our people, particularly our soldiers. This is a strong and timely decision that will significantly strengthen our resilience.
Prime… pic.twitter.com/pkIAk9Jj2Z
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 24, 2024
Ukraine is definitely stronger now than it was two years ago. Today, we signed another security agreement, which strengthens the position of our people, particularly our soldiers. This is a strong and timely decision that will significantly strengthen our resilience.
Prime Minister Trudeau and I signed a security cooperation agreement between Ukraine and Canada, which allocates over CAD 3 billion in macro-financial and defense assistance in 2024.
I am grateful to @JustinTrudeau and all Canadians. You have stood with Ukraine from the first days of the full-scale war. It is very valuable to us.
🇨🇦 🇺🇦
Assuming this is new money, Trudeau’s pledge is about half the size of the proposed US Ukraine aid package, proportionate to the countries’ economies and populations — but it does have the advantage of being passed and deliverable https://t.co/oqXyZRAi10
— Doug Saunders (@DougSaunders) February 24, 2024
Nato chief says it is inevitable Ukraine will join defence alliance as a handful western leaders gather in Kyiv to show support on the second anniversary of Russia’s full scale invasion. @IKoshiw @AmyKazmin https://t.co/lDNF7uEJYr
— Valentina Pop (@valentinapop) February 24, 2024
From The Financial Times:
Jens Stoltenberg said there was no doubt that Ukraine would join Nato as western leaders gathered in Kyiv to pledge support and mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The Nato chief said on Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin “started this war because he wanted to close Nato’s door . . . but he has achieved the exact opposite: Ukraine is now closer to Nato than ever before”.
He said Nato was helping Kyiv to make its forces “more and more interoperable” with the defence alliance and would open a joint training and analysis centre in Poland.
“Ukraine will join Nato. It is not a question of if, but of when,” he insisted.
The anniversary falls as US funding for Ukraine’s war effort falters, creating a shortage of arms and ammunition. With American aid in doubt, European support has grown increasingly important.
A $60bn aid bill has been held up in Congress by a dispute between Democrats and Republicans over illegal immigration and security on the Mexican border.
On Friday, Biden called on Republicans to approve the bill “before it’s too late” for Ukraine.
Biden visited Kyiv in 2023, just before the first anniversary, but did not travel to Ukraine for this weekend’s G7 meeting or send a representative.
After the meeting, part of which was held virtually, G7 leaders expressed confidence that Ukraine could still triumph against Russian forces.
“We are determined to dispel any false notion that time is on Russia’s side, that destroying infrastructure and livelihoods has no consequences for Russia, or that Russia could prevail by causing Ukraine to fail economically,” they said in a statement.
“Russia should not be able to indefinitely delay payment it owes.”
Earlier on Saturday, at a ceremony at Hostomel airport, where in 2022 Ukrainian troops turned back Russian forces who were advancing on the capital, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen lauded Kyiv’s resistance, saying: “You saved your country, you saved Europe.”
Writing on X on Saturday, Von der Leyen said the EU would back Ukraine financially, economically, militarily and morally “until the country is finally free”.
Von der Leyen also said that the first tranche of a €50bn aid package — €4.5bn — would be transferred to Ukraine in March.
The EU Commission president was in Kyiv together with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni — who assumed the G7 presidency in January —Alexander De Croo of Belgium and Canada’s Justin Trudeau for talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Canada and Italy announced after the talks that they had signed security guarantees with Ukraine, which are designed to formalise support for Ukraine for a period of 10 years. Ottawa also pledged an additional $2bn in financial and defence aid.
Nato representatives, US senators and European and UK parliamentarians, as well as former British prime minister Boris Johnson, also travelled to Kyiv on Saturday to meet Ukrainian officials.
Speaking at Hostomel alongside western leaders, Zelenskyy said that the war must end on Ukraine’s terms to ensure its independence. “Any normal person wants the war to end,” he said. “But none of us will allow our country to end.”
Ukraine’s top general, Oleksandr Syrsky, thanked Kyiv’s partners for their support, adding on Telegram: “Every projectile, every tank, every armoured vehicle is, first of all, saving the life of a Ukrainian soldier.”
Countries such as Japan, Sweden, Canada, Denmark and the Netherlands announced billions of dollars worth of military aid in the run-up to the anniversary of the invasion.
But military experts maintain those commitments are insufficient to plug the hole created by Congress’s inability to pass the $60bn aid package.
More at the link.
🇬🇧🇺🇦 The UK will spend £245 million throughout the next year to produce artillery ammunition for Ukraine.
We are grateful to our friends from the UK for their unwavering support. We stay united and will overcome an aggressor together. @DefenceHQ @grantshapps pic.twitter.com/4R4sedXVgE
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 24, 2024
Poland’s Radoslaw Sikorski has some thoughts to share:
How to amazingly destroy russian propaganda in a less than 5 minutes @sikorskiradek masterclass pic.twitter.com/4flkYw4aBR
— Nona Mamulashvili (@NonaMamulashvi) February 24, 2024
As does Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis:
Today we, the Baltic States 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 and Czechia 🇨🇿 come to this Council to address the entire international community with a very simple message:
For all our sakes, wake up. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/581trLXI9d
— Gabrielius Landsbergis🇱🇹 (@GLandsbergis) February 23, 2024
Two years.
It's been two years since that fucking night of February 24.
We knew — well, we've been told "it's not 100% confirmed yet…but THIS is possibly due at 4 am or 5 am, stay put."
A half-glass of single malt whisky with ice poured into a glass, the final hours alone… pic.twitter.com/AHnsqgS70p
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 23, 2024
Two years.
It’s been two years since that fucking night of February 24.
We knew — well, we’ve been told “it’s not 100% confirmed yet…but THIS is possibly due at 4 am or 5 am, stay put.”
A half-glass of single malt whisky with ice poured into a glass, the final hours alone in sweet silence in front of a laptop.
Scrolling through the news all the time.
And then the morbid face of Putin twisted with sick rage live on TV. And, shortly after, the rolling thunder of missile strikes coming in from all around Kyiv.
That was supposed to be the apocalypse of a nation, but, thanks to so many men and women standing up, that night became the beginning of Ukraine’s finest hour.
The one that old grandpa Winston was once talking about.
Oh, it’s been an epoch of time ever since that day.
The Battle of Kyiv. The heroic resistance of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv. A lone Ukrainian Marine sacrificing his life to blow up a bridge and stop advancing Russian tanks.
The tragic debacle in the south. The Russian extermination of Mariupol. The Bucha massacre. The unspeakable meat grinder in Donbas. The Kharkiv operation. The cheering crowds jubilating from the Ukrainian colors getting back to Kherson.
The fields of death and gore at Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Battles in the sea and the air.
So many ups and downs, so many heroes, human-made miracles. The price of survival as a nation is terrible. We’re going to mourn and shed tears many decades in the future over what Russia has done.
We’ve seen unbelievable things in this war. Ukraine has done and is doing incredible things in this war in spite of all odds.
The Ukrainian military has been making a gargantuan sacrifice against one of the largest and the most brutal war machines in human history.
Everyone in this war has revealed their true face, from very ordinary people to the highest-ranking power brokers.
Frankly, I don’t get it how some could choose to side with the evil, bloodlust, blatant lies, hypocrisy, and imperial savagery over the story of a nation that was supposed to go extinct within weeks but now enters the third year of resistance against the most terrible war of extermination since Adolf Hitler.
With everything that has happened over the last few months, we all should be ready for a lot of hard things to happen. A lot of hopes have been broken due to things we have no control over.
Yet, we need to keep doing what we should and what is simply right.
We’ve made an extremely long way, and the struggle continues no matter what.
This is how we saw Kharkiv on that first day – the day that forever changed our lives and the world.
Two years marked by pain, loss, and hope.
Two years of unwavering resilience.
Two years of relentless fighting.
With unwavering faith in victory!
Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/7uwh29Vvyn
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 24, 2024
“861 ships & 26 million metric tons of cargo have passed through Ukraine’s Black Sea humanitarian corridor.” One of Ukraine’s biggest successes of the war has been its ability to keep exports flowing from its ports—thanks largely to it destroying Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. https://t.co/YUKtyAzsZY
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 24, 2024
Many are curious about the remaining number of operational A-50s in Russia. I have an additional question: How many experienced and skilled crews for A-50s does Russia still have?
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 24, 2024
That is the question…
On 24 February 2022, a Russian Black Sea flagship "Moskva" approached Zmeiniy Island and offered the garrison to lay down weapons and surrender. A Ukrainian border guard Roman Valentinovich Hrybov responded in a rude form, telling the warship to go f%ck itself.
Cruiser "Moskva"… pic.twitter.com/kR13dPtoeh
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 24, 2024
On 24 February 2022, a Russian Black Sea flagship “Moskva” approached Zmeiniy Island and offered the garrison to lay down weapons and surrender. A Ukrainian border guard Roman Valentinovich Hrybov responded in a rude form, telling the warship to go f%ck itself.
Cruiser “Moskva” was later sunk on 14 April, and the island returned to full Ukrainian control by 30 June.
Although captured in the attack, on his release, Hrybov was awarded a medal for his actions at the end of March
Bakhmut:
Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/LwQoq3rHNd
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 24, 2024
Not sure where in Ukraine this is:
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
Ukrainian serviceman singlehandedly held off 10 enemies while the enemy commander frantically ordered them to advance.
Fighter of the 8th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade continued firing and throwing grenades at the enemies who were being… pic.twitter.com/P9JuzvBpcE
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 24, 2024
Ukrainian serviceman singlehandedly held off 10 enemies while the enemy commander frantically ordered them to advance.
Fighter of the 8th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade continued firing and throwing grenades at the enemies who were being taken apart by drones.
Intercepted radio comms show the russian commander attempting to control the situation, yelling “Kill this one bastard, there’s ten of you!”
The Ukrainian came out of the battle alive and well.
ALL CLEAR!!
Radensk, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Destruction of a Russian KAMAZ 5350 truck with an installed Zala Lancet launcher. Radensk, Kherson region. 20km from the frontline.
(46.521769, 32.917488)https://t.co/hkxp4jd26Yhttps://t.co/v5Zisacays pic.twitter.com/xNWEZFjfEk— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 24, 2024
Avdiivka:
/2. Geolocation of the TOS-1A and TZM-T reloading vehicle for the TOS-1.
P.S: Also this will be the 20th visually confirmed Russian loss of TOS-1A: https://t.co/voCAqEh4CM https://t.co/t4QOuNc6SR
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 24, 2024
A bit more on the downed A-50:
Claim has appeared in Ukrainian media that Russian A-50 was shot down by S-200 missile system.
«According to the UP source, the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft was shot down by the S-200 long-range anti-aircraft missile system.” – Ukrainska Pravda media.… https://t.co/6lbXa9KXiZ pic.twitter.com/xXDwsdwAov
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 23, 2024
Claim has appeared in Ukrainian media that Russian A-50 was shot down by S-200 missile system.
«According to the UP source, the Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft was shot down by the S-200 long-range anti-aircraft missile system.” – Ukrainska Pravda media.
https://pravda.com.ua/news/2024/02/23/7443442/
/16. Claimed board number of the downed A-50 appeared in the media: tail number – 42, RF-50610.https://t.co/iMiTV10dPh
Initially built as the A-50 in 1988. On March 28, 2019, after being upgraded to the A-50U, it entered service with the Russian Aerospace Forces. pic.twitter.com/4CUFZD6FIM
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 24, 2024
/15. “According to the source, interlocutors at the GUR, all 10 Russians who were on the A-50 plane died. Among them are five majors, three captains, an ensign and a lieutenant.” – Ukrainska Pravda media.
A-50 crew:
•the commander of the aircraft- Major Borovykov;
•assistant commander – Major Chantsev;
•navigator – captain Provalov;
•flight engineer – captain Vasiliev;
•senior air radio operator – Ensign Khrulev;
•head of the calculation, head of the shift – Major Fedosov;
•guidance navigator – Major Rulyuk;
•guidance navigator – lieutenant Telmanov;
•senior flight engineer – captain Belov;
•flight engineer – Major Soldatkin.https://pravda.com.ua/news/2024/02/24/7443493/
Kyrylo Budanov, director of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, told me in January of Russia’s spy planes: “There are just eight A-50s in good condition.” Today’s downing would make just seven. https://t.co/Cahvyej9yK https://t.co/vL6PrPc3LS
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) February 24, 2024
London:
More photos of #London, #UK: today’s rally in support of #Ukraine: pic.twitter.com/n49fyXXWj1
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) February 24, 2024
Prague:
Out of all the rallies supporting Ukraine worldwide today, this in Prague stands out 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/n54OEFlXON
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 24, 2024
Paris:
More than 10 000 people marching today in Paris in support of Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇪🇺🇫🇷 #Ukraine #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/NpCmKrU3QK
— Alexis Prokopiev (@aprokopiev) February 24, 2024
Munich:
Munich today ❤️🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/BtiuuepLaR
— Prof. Severus Snape (@snape70) February 24, 2024
Manhattan:
“#Ukraine fatigue” NYC right now pic.twitter.com/3eNQrBUlO5
— Тетяна Denford (Тетяна Бісик) 🇺🇦 (@TetyanaUkrainka) February 24, 2024
I have nothing particularly profound or wise left to say that I have not already said. I am still in 100% agreement with the rightfully and righteously enraged Springbok below.
🇬🇧🇺🇦 Powerful words from a British volunteer fighting Russian imperialism on Ukraine summing up some recent events we have faced. pic.twitter.com/6vIatVzJXT
— Intermarium 24 (@intermarium24) February 21, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
This is me 2 years ago. Nothing has changed, and everything has changed. Today, I ask you to display the Ukrainian flag if you have one. To wear blue and yellow. Your support is so important to us. I thank everyone, thanks to whom I am still alive. I despise everyone because of… pic.twitter.com/csB2nd18wU
— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 24, 2024
This is me 2 years ago. Nothing has changed, and everything has changed. Today, I ask you to display the Ukrainian flag if you have one. To wear blue and yellow. Your support is so important to us. I thank everyone, thanks to whom I am still alive. I despise everyone because of whom my people die every day. Glory to Ukraine! Eternal memory to those who died in the struggle for freedom. Eternal love to those who support us❤️
Open thread!
John Cole
Zelensky looks so weary. I hate Republicans.
Another Scott
Video from the DC rally and march at the Lincoln Memorial today (3:05:45)
The next DC rally is scheduled for the Capitol on February 28.
Thanks Adam, and everyone.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
japa21
Thank you Adam.
A quibble with this in the Financial Times story
It is now obvious the border has nothing to do with it. Actually only one person is preventing the bill from going through and that is Speaker Johnson. It would pass easily if he wasn’t either such a chicken-shit or a paid asset of Putin.
hrprogressive
That framing in the article about US aid “held up over a disagreement on border security” is such fucking bullshit.
Democrats want Ukraine and western liberal democracy to prevail.
Republicans want Russia and fascism to prevail.
It’s that simple.
Does the GOP have to start goose-stepping on camera in front of of the Capitol before people finally believe and acknowledge this truth?
Jay
Thank you Adam.
I talked with Slava the other day. He is again, in rotation. His Leopard II, by orders, is allowed to fire 3 shells a day, no matter what is going on. They get 2 HE and 1 AP per patrol. 7.62 mm is also being restricted.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
Any thoughts on the next Ukrainian presidential election? I heard rumblings that about a term limit, but it’s hard to distinguish truth from Russian bullshit (looks at entire Republican Party from national party to local lackeys).
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: How is the situation on munitions for Soviet era arms? I saw an article on the War Zone yesterday making references to impending dire shortages of all munitions (beyond artillery shells) w/in a month, but it was not clear to me whether it was just munitions for Western supplied arms or all arms in general. If it was just the former, then I expect the Ukrainians will still be able to put up a staunch defense using Soviet era arms, albeit at higher cost in equipment & lives; if the latter, then it will be extremely tough. Either way, it is situation critical.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: @hrprogressive: I hammered this point three times last night at least.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Keeping good thoughts for him, his crew, and his company. I am sorry to read that the are approaching ammunition famine.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: My understanding is that as long as Ukraine is at war, elections, by the Ukrainian constitution, are on hold. Honestly, once it’s over I cannot imagine Zelenskyy would want to do anything but retire.
And yes, the Russians have been working the political warfare, subversion, and information warfare hard on this stuff. I covered the most recent reporting on it about a week ago and did almost an entire update explaining how the subversion works the other night.
RaflW
I lack the scale to know if $310M (245M gbp) of U.K. produced shells is very significant. The f’ing Republicans are holding up $60Bn, so I’m thinking that while the UK is helping, it’s not much.
And the FT is doing the disgraceful bidding of conservatives in hiding who is responsible for the obstruction.
Bill Arnold
Latest A-50 downing story is a Russian IFF(Identification, friend or foe) failure. Note: I haven’t assessed the reliability of the accounts involved; could e.g. be disinformation, or pure speculation.
Via
Tweet translation:
telegram channel. (Don’t know reliability) The google translate from Russian of the relevant bit. Bold mine:
The remaining A-50s (or some of them) are reportedly grounded now. If the report is true, one could suspect that they are examining the aircraft-side IFF systems. And perhaps getting paranoid.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold:
Which is why I’m not posting this stuff. If you have to caveat what you’re going to post this way you shouldn’t post it.
Another Scott
@RaflW: Google tells me that a 155 mm round costs around $8500 now (vs $2200 before the war).
$350M/$8500 = 42,000 rounds or so.
Stuff is spendy. :-/
Cheers,
Scott.
Baud
Thanks for your tireless work documenting the war, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: Just to be clear, I’ve got no issues or anything with you posting. Or with you as you. The Ukrainians have claimed the kill. Until/unless a legitimate source provides actual evidence to contradict it, that’s where we’re at.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: 42,000 155mm rounds won’t last very long.
Adam L Silverman
@Baud: You’re welcome.
I wish there was no reason to do so.
Alison Rose
Thank you as always, Adam.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
As far as I know, there are shortages and rationing of “every thing” except hand grenades, 40mm mortar shells and AGL ammo.
On a bunch of the Soviet era stuff, (arty, tanks) the barrels are wearing out as well.
Many units are also running out of drones and medical supplies.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
21 days at the current shell starved rate of fire.
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
Thank you Adam. No reply needed.
wombat probability cloud
Thank you, Adam. May a day come soon when it becomes clear that Trump can’t win, or can’t serve, at which point his spell on the House will fade. I fear you may be continuing these posts into 2025, but hope there’s an inflection point in concrete U.S. support well before that. Agonizingly painful, meanwhile.
Anonymous At Work
@Adam L Silverman: And thank you for that update on subversion. I sent it onward to lots of people, some of whom may recognize what’s plain in front of their faces. Sadly, others listen to FOX and “do their own research.”
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: Fox is part of the subversion, but Murdoch’s not Putin’s. Though the former’s ambitions serve the latter’s even if it would appall Murdoch to realize that. Murdoch weaponized his news media properties – first the Australian tabloids and newspapers, then the British ones, then the American ones followed by Fox News – in order to subvert first the news and information ecosystems, but also the political order. Murdoch was asked why he was supporting Brexit and his answer was that when he goes to Brussels as the de facto capitol of the EU or the capitols of the other EU member states no one will give him the time of day. But in London if he wants to see the PM, the PM drops everything and sees Murdoch immediately. Murdoch has done what he has done, he empowered Ailes to build Fox News, all in the pursuit of gaining access to and reflexive control over politicians and their constituents in order to influence them in favor of Murdoch’s interest: the wealth, well being, and desires of Rupert Murdoch.
Adam L Silverman
@AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team: @wombat probability cloud: @AlaskaReader: You’re most welcome.
Kyle Rayner
Turnout at the DC rally was, speaking very frankly, worryingly small. Great deal of Ukrainians, Poles, and Russians, but not nearly enough Americans. Looking at pictures of the UK and Prague rallies, those appear to have been way denser and larger. It’s nice to see that Americans generally favor support to Ukraine, but I hope Biden’s administration and various Democrat representatives keep bringing the actual heat on funding even if regular people stay home.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Uhh!
What is the status of Ukrainian efforts to stand up its own conventional arms industry? We’ve seen enormous efforts associated w/ drones of all sizes, ranges & types, & they are having an impact. Ukraine in theory should be able to manufacture their own tanks, infantry fighting vehicles & armored personnel carriers, but instead it appears to be relying more & more on a combination of refurbished Soviet era equipment & more modern Western donated equipment.
The odd German or Turkish weapons manufacture are working on establishing plants in Ukraine, but I am not sure there is a concerted & comprehensive effort. If this war will drag on for a few more years, as it appears to be the case, & Western countries are incapable and/or unwilling to come through w/ the qty. of equipment/munitions that can sustain a high intensity war, then Ukraine has to look to itself for solutions. Helping Ukraine to build up a more comprehensive arms industry (at least for land warfare) is probably less costly to the West over the medium to long term than donations. “Give a man fish vs. teach man how to fish”, etc.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: That is why Western aid in terms of USD/Euro is meaningless to Ukraine (they have meaning to Western budgets). Only the qty. of equipment/munitions to Ukraine matter for the battlefield.
Western weapons & munitions have become prohibitively expensive over the decades of MIC consolidation & broken procurement, whereby Western military budgets have become blood banks for the Western weapons manufacturers & defense contractors to leach on, to fatten their margins & realize shareholders value.
Redshift
@Another Scott:
I was there, it was a good gathering! I have pictures I’ll send to On the Road. (Sadly, I’m going to be out of town on the 28th, I’d like to be there to give Moscow Mike a piece of my mind.)
Everyone do yourself a favor and listen to Jamie Raskin’s remarks at 1:03:21 in that YouTube stream. He was on fire, about Ukraine, but also about exactly where the problem is and about the broader fight against fascism that we’re all part of.
hrprogressive
@Adam L Silverman:
I know. I’m still perplexed as to why so many people seem to either be unwilling or unable to admit this.
I know, that the the truth of the matter is shocking and terrible and ugly.
But it’s gonna be way worse if people keep ignoring it and whoops, they’ve seized power, end of America, etc.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@John Cole: He is aging before our eyes. I worry about what the sheer stress is doing to him.
If it makes you feel any better, in a short interview, Ukraine spy master Kyrylo Budanov, who I swear is sometimes my spirit animal, has basically sworn vengeance on those who poisoned his wife. That should be fun to watch. 😁
Thank you Adam.
Slava Ukraini!
evodevo
@YY_Sima Qian: Would be harder than you think…the Ruskies would just bomb any factories on the surface. They would have to be underground if located in Ukraine. The US gearing up after Pearl Harbor used mfg resources that were already available – auto makers for vehicles/tanks, etc. (See: War Production Board) – and we did not have to worry about them being bombed. Might be more feasible to locate the factories in the Balkans or Poland. One would think venture capital would jump right on this lol…
YY_Sima Qian
Extraordinary read from the NYT on the deep collaboration between the Ukrainian intelligence agencies & the CIA since 2014, very illuminating of the apparent Ukrainian successes w/ espionage, assassinations, sabotage, & targeting since the start of the current invasion. Also very curious why this is all coming out now, & to such detail.
Bill Arnold
Interesting to see this on the Fox News website:
Putin’s ‘greatest hits’: Russian dissidents continue disappearing in pattern of bizarre deaths – Several major dissidents, including politicians and journalists, have died in unsolved cases (Peter Aitken, Fox News, February 25, 2024)
wjca
They do have the huge advantage (over the CIA) of a big pool of native speakers of Russian. (As Zelenskyy is, for that matter.) Which makes it easy for them to blend in and move around. And many of those native speakers are from the oarts of Ukraine which the Russians are currently trashing, which makes them highly motivated.