(Image by NEIVANMADE)
And we’ve got a government shutdown!
Absent an agreement, the cloture vote will occur one hour after the Senate convenes on Sunday, March 24, 2024. https://t.co/CJNoR4x0sN
— Senate Periodicals (@SenatePPG) March 23, 2024
It’s over the weekend, so it shouldn’t affect much, but we’ve got one. Now we wait to see if they can pass the thing on Sunday.
As I begin this post, air raid alerts are once again up all over Ukraine as Russia has its fighter bombers in the air. We’ll have to wait to find out if they do another bombardment tonight/this morning.
Overnight, Ukrainian forces shot down 92 of the 151 russian aerial targets.
The terrorist state attacked Ukraine with:
•63 Shahed UAVs
•12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
•40 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles
•5 Kh-22 cruise missiles
•7 Kh-47 M2 (Kinzhal) aeroballistic missiles… pic.twitter.com/orRb9pSd5I— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 22, 2024
Overnight, Ukrainian forces shot down 92 of the 151 russian aerial targets.
The terrorist state attacked Ukraine with:
•63 Shahed UAVs
•12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
•40 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles
•5 Kh-22 cruise missiles
•7 Kh-47 M2 (Kinzhal) aeroballistic missiles
•22 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft missiles
•2 Kh-59 guided cruise missilesOur air defenders downed:
•55 Shaheds
•35 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles
•2 Kh-59 guided cruise missilesUkraine needs more air defense!
This night, Russia launched over 60 "Shahed" drones and nearly 90 missiles of various types at Ukraine. The world sees the Russian terrorists' targets as clearly as possible: power plants and energy supply lines, a hydroelectric dam, ordinary residential buildings, and even a… pic.twitter.com/5dX2fAMMiE
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 22, 2024
This night, Russia launched over 60 “Shahed” drones and nearly 90 missiles of various types at Ukraine. The world sees the Russian terrorists’ targets as clearly as possible: power plants and energy supply lines, a hydroelectric dam, ordinary residential buildings, and even a trolleybus. Russia is at war with people’s everyday lives. My condolences to the loved ones of those killed by this terror.
In all of the cities affected by the attack, the necessary services have already been deployed. Rescuers, power engineers, regional and local authorities, police and utility services are helping people. Nobody will be left without assistance. Electrical power is being restored. Recovery in Kharkiv and its region, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipro, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi and its region, Vinnytsia, and Ivano-Frankivsk has begun as of last night.
Russian missiles have no delays, unlike aid packages for Ukraine. “Shahed” drones have no indecision, unlike some politicians. It is critical to understand the cost of delays and postponed decisions.
Patriot systems must protect Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia; air defense is required to protect people, infrastructure, homes, and dams. Our partners know exactly what is needed. They can definitely support us. These are necessary decisions. Life must be protected from these savages from Moscow.
This map illustrates the extent of Russia’s assault on Ukraine: 88 missiles and 63 Shahed drones unleashed. Though 37 missiles and 55 drones were intercepted, the gaps in air defense are glaring—a vulnerability Russia is keenly aware of. pic.twitter.com/P3383Aabw2
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 22, 2024
Footage shows Russian missile attacks on the Dnipro dam in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric power plant. pic.twitter.com/uwkGSiZZsW
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) March 22, 2024
More on this after the jump. And the day’s other big news. Had Russia not bombarded Ukraine again I was going to go with Panic at the Disco for the subtitle of tonight’s update.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Russian terror is only possible now because we lack enough air defense systems, because our partners lack the political will to provide them – address by the President
22 March 2024 – 20:31
Dear Ukrainians,
Throughout the day, the utmost attention is being directed to all our regions hit by Russian strikes last night. Everywhere there were impacts, recovery efforts are underway. All services, repair brigades, rescue teams of Ukraine’s State Emergency Service, police, and everyone involved will be working around the clock to overcome this terror to the maximum extent possible. The city of Kharkiv and Kharkiv region, Sumy region, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk region, Poltava region, Odesa region, the city of Khmelnytsky and Khmelnytsky region, Vinnytsia, and Ivano-Frankivsk region… these strikes were extremely heinous, with the deliberate goal of causing structural damage to society’s life rather than military damage to our ability to defend ourselves – and this is terror, by definition, without any disguises.
Overall, the strikes harmed over thirty people across the country. As of now, five people have been reported killed… My condolences to their close ones. A significant part of the energy system has been damaged.
Today, I held a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting primarily focusing on protection and recovery operations. Military personnel, including detailed briefings from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and Commander of the Air Force Oleschuk, provided updates. Additionally, necessary reports were received from Prime Minister Shmyhal, government officials, energy company executives, and regional leaders… Everyone has been provided with clear guidelines for action. Personal responsibility is paramount.
The situation in Kharkiv is particularly challenging. Restoration of electricity for critical infrastructure and residential consumers is ongoing. This work will continue without interruptions. Much progress has been made during the day in Kharkiv region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Ivano-Frankivsk region, Khmelnytsky region, Vinnytsia region, and Poltava region to restore electricity, water, and heating supplies. Work continues in Odesa region. Special attention is being given to hydroelectric facilities in Zaporizhzhia.
I thank everyone working for Ukraine, for the people. Repair brigades, engineers, and all power plant workers are true heroes. The collective effort of Ukraine’s State Emergency Service is commendable as always, and I am proud of each one of them. The police, businesses, and all those providing support at this time, thank you. Unified government action on the ground is crucial – now, more than ever, the personal effectiveness of everyone managing communities is needed.
Certainly, air defense is the top priority right now. Our people here in Ukraine are responsible for the physical protection of facilities and their recovery following strikes. However, true and comprehensive protection from Russian missiles and Shahed drones is only possible with sufficient political will on the part of our partners. We work on it every day. Every day, we persuade partners of the importance and, more importantly, the feasibility of full protection of Ukrainian skies. Russian terror is only possible now because we don’t have enough modern air defense systems – in other words, frankly, because our partners lack the political will to provide them. They all know exactly what is required and who can make life-saving decisions.
Today, I held several international meetings. I met with the Minister of Defence of Denmark, a country that is one of our most principled partners. If everyone assisted as principled as they do, we would have already been able to reliably protect the lives of our country and people from Russian terror. Today, we discussed the consequences of today’s Russian attack and the situation in the future… We highly appreciate that the Minister of Defence of Denmark was accompanied by leaders of Danish defense companies. Relevant discussions, meetings were held… We are preparing joint projects regarding drones, EW, and artillery. I’m grateful for all the support and cooperation.
Today, I also met with the Secretary General of the Council of Europe. We discussed, among other things, the fair responsibility of the Russian state for all the terror. We in Ukraine appreciate international efforts regarding the Register of Damage and all forms of pressure on the Putin system to reduce and block its ability to destroy lives. Everyone who helps Ukraine, everyone who limits Russia’s terrorist and military potential, is a true lifesaver. History always remembers such leaders; they earn real respect for themselves and maintain the moral leadership of their countries.
And one more thing.
I want to separately acknowledge the efforts of the employees of our State Emergency Service who are currently working in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia… I’m grateful to everyone. In Kharkiv: Vitaliy Yelezyev and Volodymyr Vodolazkin from the 25th Fire and Rescue Unit; Volodymyr Avramenko and Vitaliy Shramko from the 34th Fire and Rescue Unit; and Vitaliy Senchikhin, a worker of the central administration of the State Emergency Service in Kharkiv region. In Zaporizhzhia: Serhiy Terentyev from the 2nd Fire and Rescue Unit; Vitaliy Tubalov from the 5th Fire and Rescue Unit; Kostiantyn Zhuravliov from the 6th Fire and Rescue Unit; Oleksiy Ponomarenko from the 10th Fire and Rescue Unit; and also Ihor Shabatiuk, an employee of the central administration of the State Emergency Service in Zaporizhzhia region. I also want to specially mention Senior Lieutenants of the National Police Volodymyr Hryshanov and Danylo Kuchynskyi, who are working in Zaporizhzhia, helping to restore and protect normal life. Thank you!
Thank you to everyone who defends Ukraine, our people, lives, and independence. Thank you to each and every one who fights for our state and for holding Russian terrorists fully accountable for all the evil of this war. Glory to our nation!
Glory to Ukraine!
Ukraine desperately more air defense, so this announcement from the UK is good news!
The UK announced a new £60 million military aid package for Ukraine. The package includes advanced new surveillance drones and air defence systems.
Thank you, United Kingdom!
Together, we will win!
🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧 https://t.co/aEPtD7i1AW— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 22, 2024
And these Lithuanian anti-drone systems will also be helpful.
Lithuania handed over another military aid package to Ukraine. The package includes anti-drone systems.
Your support is very important for us.
Thank you for being on the right side of history.
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹 https://t.co/J655yGzlFI— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 22, 2024
This morning’s attack is a perfect example of why the anti-drone systems are sorely needed. The Russians start with the Shaheds, swarming them in to overwhelm the air defense system. Then they follow them with the ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The attack the other night on Kyiv, where the Ukrainians were able to bring down all the ballistic and cruise missiles was a missiles only attack. No drone swarms in the first wave to overwhelm the air defense.
This will also be helpful:
The first Ukrainian pilots have completed basic flying training in the UK.
The next step is advanced flying training provided by the French Air Force.We are grateful to our partners in the UK for the training of Ukrainian pilots and their unwavering support. Ukraine is waiting… https://t.co/2lPHRbv1f1
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 22, 2024
The first Ukrainian pilots have completed basic flying training in the UK.
The next step is advanced flying training provided by the French Air Force.We are grateful to our partners in the UK for the training of Ukrainian pilots and their unwavering support. Ukraine is waiting for F-16s to protect our skies from russian terror.
Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧
It would have been more helpful if the Biden administration hadn’t sat on their hands out of fear of Putin for an additional year.
Have to admit, after more than two years of a full-scale war in Europe, we're still bitterly underestimating many decision-makers in their inconceivable, unprecedented reluctance to leave their safe, liability-free comfort zone of rosy unicorns and the same old business as usual.…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 22, 2024
Have to admit, after more than two years of a full-scale war in Europe, we’re still bitterly underestimating many decision-makers in their inconceivable, unprecedented reluctance to leave their safe, liability-free comfort zone of rosy unicorns and the same old business as usual.
It’s good that Putin is a fucking moron and that his regime is corrupt and delusional, and that Ukraine, with its frantic resistance in 2022, in many ways derailed the Russian might and plans.
A really smart totalitarian dictator in charge of a country like Russia would have eaten today’s West for breakfast.
Poor little Russia, stop hurting it like that – or better just fucking die already pic.twitter.com/QFnPLV1ecQ
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 22, 2024
The US be like: "We support your struggle against the Russian invasion, but please dont shoot back or destroy anything fancy. It might get a bit more expensive for me to drive my oversized pickup truck. So you know, shoot back, a little bit, but dont make anyone upset. " pic.twitter.com/EiWzZot9ZY
— Def Mon (@DefMon3) March 22, 2024
The Financial Times has the details:
The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning that the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times.
Both intelligence units have steadily expanded their own drone programmes to strike Russian targets on land, sea and in the air since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity.
Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector. Oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for re-election.
Washington is also concerned that if Ukraine keeps hitting Russian facilities, including many that are hundreds of miles from the border, Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west.
This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022.
“We do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia,” an NSC spokesperson said. The CIA declined to comment. In Kyiv, a spokesperson for the SBU declined to comment. Officials at GUR and Zelenskyy’s office did not respond to requests for comment.
After the Financial Times published news of the US warnings on Friday Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, was asked how Kyiv had responded to the Biden administration’s appeals to stop attacks on Russian refineries.
She said: “The Ukrainian side responded, I think, precisely by achieving its goals and by very successful operations conducted on the territory of the Russian Federation.”
“We understand the appeals of our American partners,” Stefanishyna told an audience at the Kyiv Security Forum. “At the same time, we are fighting with the capabilities, resources and practices that we have today.”
The US objections come as Biden faces a tough re-election battle this year with petrol prices on the rise, increasing almost 15 per cent this year to around $3.50 a gallon.
“Nothing terrifies a sitting American president more than a surge in pump prices during an election year,” said Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former White House energy adviser.
Maybe they'd have some leverage if they actually got aid to Ukraine in the past 3 months, but if you abandon an ally you can't expect them to do what you want https://t.co/cxADGkhdEc
— Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) March 22, 2024
WH Official's Schedule:
7 AM: Leak to the WaPo
8 AM: Meeting with SBU to tell them they're fighting wrong
10 AM: Meeting with GUR to tell them they're too mean
1 PM: Boozy Lunch (thx NYT)
3 PM: Get angry with the Brits (They helped UA with ammo from weird places)
5PM: Home— Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ (@CalibreObscura) March 22, 2024
If you’re not providing any more funding or material, then you don’t get to dictate terms. The Biden senior nat-sec team needs to spend some time reflecting on there utter strategic incompetence, malpractice, failure, and moral cowardice.
Especially given what Russia is communicating in its response to the attacks on its petroleum refineries:
If Russia resorts to environmental terrorism, it shows that Ukraine has identified a vulnerable spot and should continue to apply pressure on it. Their response confirmed where it hurts.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 22, 2024
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Eight Russian missiles targeted the Dnipro Dam in Zaporizhia this morning, Ukrainian authorities say. pic.twitter.com/Ycj2O9jnRG
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 22, 2024
Russia just vaporized those houses and people who lived there.
Ukraine is running out of air defense.
Putin got the second breath after securing he is an emperor of russia.
The US is not a superpower anymore.
These are dark times, and the darker times are comming. https://t.co/2PEDjYVtyN
— Mariia Kramarenko (@KramarenkoMari3) March 22, 2024
Overnight, Russia launched an attack on Ukrainian energy facilities, damaging power generation, transmission and distribution systems in various regions, including Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant, the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant in Zaporizhzhia.
Many towns and… pic.twitter.com/AAubRfDebU
— Ihor Lachenkov (@igorlachenkov) March 22, 2024
The largest attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this year. Electricity facilities targeted throughout the country. Dnipro Dam in Zaporizhzhia hit, power outages in Kryvyi Rih, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnitsia. Power transmission line feeding Zaporizhzhia NPP de-energized. pic.twitter.com/Lt2VNM1sCm
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 22, 2024
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv is completely blacked out. Russian forces struck about 15 missiles at the city.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) March 22, 2024
Kharkiv electrical infrastructure got slammed by ballistic missiles in air raids tonight. pic.twitter.com/CXS9h7HuSi
— War Tracker (@wartracker4) March 22, 2024
As a result of the russian attack on #Kharkiv, the energy infrastructure was damaged, but the station is provided with backup power from generators – and all the station systems are working!
Passengers and residents can drink hot tea, keep warm and charge their gadgets at the… pic.twitter.com/j2WkyY75eQ
— Oleksandr Kubrakov (@OlKubrakov) March 22, 2024
As a result of the russian attack on #Kharkiv, the energy infrastructure was damaged, but the station is provided with backup power from generators – and all the station systems are working!
Passengers and residents can drink hot tea, keep warm and charge their gadgets at the station: we thank our partners The Howard G. Buffett Foundation and Nova Ukraine for their help.
For the youngest guests at Kharkiv railway station, the children’s point “Spilno” from @Ukrzaliznytsia and @UNICEF Ukraine continues to operate: in the free entertainment area, parents can relax in warmth and safety, and children can play and be distracted.
Nothing stops the Ukrainian Railways from continuing to run. Plus, the Food Train 🚂🧑🍳 is now in action supporting the people of Kharkiv after the brutal attack this morning – 21 missiles were fired at the city and power/heat is still out. https://t.co/v097dZ9MTZ
— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 22, 2024
The Avdiivka front:
As many sources have already written, Russians began to use the Desertcross 1000-3 much more often on the front line. Now some tactics of their use by Russians in assaults have begun to become clear. A Russian unit consisting of 5-8 infantrymen on each “golf cart” moves to the… pic.twitter.com/FBRDBLedmo
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 22, 2024
As many sources have already written, Russians began to use the Desertcross 1000-3 much more often on the front line. Now some tactics of their use by Russians in assaults have begun to become clear. A Russian unit consisting of 5-8 infantrymen on each “golf cart” moves to the frontline, after which they abandon the “golf cart” and are expected to take and hold positions.
The 47th brigade shows the destruction of one such groups on the Avdiivka front:
“Russian special forces that drove into Berdychi on a Chinese golf cart (no joke).
At first, they even shot down our drone with an assault rifle. Then they used smoke cover, like in cool action movies, and ran to hide.
Four hid in the remains of the building’s foundation, one lay down in the crater, and two hid under destroyed equipment.”
Let’s get to the other big news: ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) has claimed responsibility for attacking the Crocus nightclub in Moscow.
For those curious on past IS activity in Russia please see this thread for proper context: https://t.co/MZSD1Plwpk
— Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) March 22, 2024
Reuters has the details. (emphasis mine)
March 22 (Reuters) – The United States has intelligence confirming Islamic State’s claim of responsibility for a deadly shooting at a concert near Moscow, a U.S. official said on Friday.
The official said the United States had warned Russia in recent weeks about the possibility of an attack.
“We did warn the Russians appropriately,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, without providing any additional details.
At least 40 people were killed and 145 wounded on Friday when camouflage-clad gunmen opened fire with automatic weapons on concertgoers near Moscow in one of the deadliest attacks on Russia in decades.
Islamic State, the militant group that once sought control over swathes of Iraq and Syria, claimed responsibility for the attack, the group’s Amaq agency said on Telegram.
The death toll made it one of the worst attacks on Russia since the 2004 Beslan school siege, when Islamist militants took more than 1,000 people hostage, including hundreds of children.
I saw the initial reports on the attack on social media and noted it. My initial thought was Putin has a long track record of attacking his own people and using it as agitprop against his enemies. Then Gin & Tonic emailed about the ISIS rumors. And when I finished my workout and started poking around I immediately found the Reuters reporting.
May be unrelated, but a couple weeks ago, the US Embassy in Russia told citizens to avoid large gatherings — including concerts.https://t.co/ueW9pwkXIf
— Aric Toler (@AricToler) March 22, 2024
Videos of the building on fire. There are videos showing the gunmen shooting people at close ranges, which I won't share. It appears there are at least 4 gunmen. 2/https://t.co/kTCzEgR0pWhttps://t.co/HYZMRqTIPEhttps://t.co/VIKL7JDDSKhttps://t.co/AWjk1YIY9F pic.twitter.com/uTn5hVWGdZ
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 22, 2024
Cannot recall ever seeing such complete official bewilderment in Russia following such an attack. State media figures now dismissing ISIS claims, but also failing to come forward with their own narrative, which they normally do fast https://t.co/f6hxUi26Qj
— Peter Leonard (@Peter__Leonard) March 22, 2024
As the official death toll passes 60 (unofficially, it’s 70+), Putin has reportedly met with his top national security officials: FSB director Bortnikov, MVD Minister Kolokoltsev, Investigative Committee head Bastrykin, and National Guard chief Zolotov. https://t.co/hzkonQmrr1
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 23, 2024
Reuters reported this just two weeks ago:
MOSCOW, March 7 (Reuters) – Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Thursday it prevented an attack on a synagogue in Moscow that was plotted by an Islamic State cell, Russian state news agencies reported.
FSB said that the members of the organization had been planning “to commit a terrorist act against one of the Jewish religious institutions in Moscow”, the RIA news agency quoted the report as saying.
The attackers opened fire during the attempted arrest and were “neutralized by return fire”, the FSB said.
🧵“Recent intelligence reporting indicated the ISIS-K terrorist group, a branch of the Islamic State that has operated in Afghanistan, Pakistan & Iran, was active inside Russia, two U.S. officials said. https://t.co/qUDur2tRJs
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 23, 2024
“The warning was based in part on intelligence reporting about possible ISIS-K activity inside Russia, said the U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.”
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) March 23, 2024
So while US Embassy Moscow was issuing warnings, the Russians did not seem to go on alert after they broke up a terrorist attack by ISIS at the beginning of the month.
In fact Putin was using the threat as agitprop just a few days ago.
Just 3 days ago, Putin called warnings of terror attacks "Western blackmail".
In any normal country, such a statement followed by an actual attack resulting in hundreds of victims would have led to an immediate resignation and criminal investigation for failing to carry out the… pic.twitter.com/CcmGxlVVJe
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 22, 2024
Just 3 days ago, Putin called warnings of terror attacks “Western blackmail”.
In any normal country, such a statement followed by an actual attack resulting in hundreds of victims would have led to an immediate resignation and criminal investigation for failing to carry out the responsibilities of protecting the country’s citizens.
But hey ho, 24 years and counting.
FYI, even with this very convenient blur, this is not what Ukrainian license plates look like, of course. pic.twitter.com/XKEume6BU9
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 22, 2024
The license plates appear to be Belarusian. Which makes sense as it is easier to get into Russia from Belarus than from just about anywhere else these days.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here is some adjacent material.
Hachiko will help! Thanks 🙏 for taking good care of Snowball from Kherson, who is now with her new family in Lviv!😻 https://t.co/UOHT8SyyhV pic.twitter.com/g3EZiyCUrH
— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 22, 2024
It is well beyond time to designate Russia as a terrorist state. https://t.co/gwZe5Nozit
— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 22, 2024
Yes, yes it is!
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
Jake Sullivan should have stayed home.
Alison Rose
Thank you as always, Adam.
bookworm1398
Maybe the attackers were some of the people Russia flew into Belarus to cross the border into EU to create trouble for the governments there. Probably not, but it would be karmic
Devore
Thanks again for your excellent summary
With the mention of USA F16s that don’t seem to have yet shown up. What about European Tornado bombers or French Mirage Fighters? Are they all essentially decommissioned?
Chetan Murthy
My first reaction to this IS attack in Moscow was ‘boo hoo, fuck them all’. I’d like to understand why that’s a wrong reaction.
For instance:
a. the laws of war seem to be slanted toward big countries and those with significant expeditionary capability (that is to say, countries with strategic depth). If you’re a small, weak country, then too bad, the war will be fought on your land, and your civilians will die. Too bad for you. And you must not respond in kind: them’s the laws of war.
b. a country can commit all manner of atrocities, but its victim must not respond in kind. Again, them’s the laws.
c. a victim country cannot respond against the civilians of its aggressor. In this case, the argument is also made that RU is a totalitarian state, so its citizens aren’t responsible. But we have no evidence whatsoever that there’s even a sizable fraction of RU citizens who oppose killing Ukrainians; what they oppose, is their husbands being killed, and the war going badly.
If RU citizens in any significant number opposed this war, opposed murdering Ukrainians, then we’d see mutinies all over the RU army. We’d see RU soldiers regularly killing their commanding officers, etc. We’d see artillery units being blown up by rogue soldiers. Toss a couple of live grenades into an ammo dump, and watch what happens. But we see nothing of that. They don’t oppose killing Ukrainians.
So what’s the moral case for me to feel any sorrow whatsoever for the victims of today’s attack?
Again, I understand the expedient/practical/public relations reasons. I’m asking here about the moral ones.
brendancalling
I read about the ISIS attack! So sad—I broke out my tiniest violin and played “Roll Out the Barrel,” since I don’t know any sad songs (and if I did, I wouldn’t play them).
More importantly, the spaghetti I made tonight was delicious. Store-brand pasta, jarred sauce but still really good. I added some garlic and oven-roasted peppers.
TeezySkeezy
I wonder if the “bewilderment” in Russia and lack of narrative after rejecting the ISIS claims stems from two competing reactions: one, some elements of the Russian leadership wanting to blame Ukraine, but others rightly worried that ratcheting up the level of mass delusion in Russian by attributing the attacks to the wrong people *on purpose* might be a bit destabilizing.
Chetan Murthy
@brendancalling: I read that one oven-roasts the peppers, and then blends them? Or do you do something else? [I have a buncha ’em in the fridge, figuring out how to use ’em]
Chetan Murthy
@TeezySkeezy: [puts on cynic’s cap]
It didn’t seem to stop ’em in 1999 apartment bombings. OK, that’s just being really, really cynical. I guess I can see how they might decide that *this time* would be a bridge too far. Though probably the biggest reason is that IS already claimed responsibility, and denying that would be difficult.
Chetan Murthy
@Chetan Murthy: I should have added: I once read a piece by Hannah Arendt where she quotes Mary Mccarthy to the effect that
“If someone points a gun to your head and orders you to kill this person, or they’ll shoot you dead, they’re not threatening you; they’re tempting you.”
She went on to note that it might be expedient to kill that person (to save your life) but it would not be moral.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
TeezySkeezy
@Chetan Murthy: Not saying it will stop them now either, just saying everyone’s not on the same page yet.
Comrade Bukharin
By the same logic Americans killed on 9/11 deserved no sympathy. After all, what did they do to stop their government’s constant intervention in other countries’ affairs.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: Yep. As I wrote last night, his mouth wrote a check that Biden can’t cash.
Chetan Murthy
@TeezySkeezy: My own belief stems from maybe listening to too much of Timothy Snyder. He argues that all personalist regimes tend to incompetence, b/c loyalty is higher-prized. So maybe after 24 years, they’re just not as competent as they were back in the noughties. Maybe they’re just not fleet enough to, y’know, get their ducks in a row. That they ignored stark warnings from the US IC seems to confirm that.
Just spitballin’.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Devore: They’d have to be trained on them And I don’t think there’s that much surplus.
Chetan Murthy
@Comrade Bukharin: it’s interesting you mention that. First, Osama Bin Laden is and was our enemy, and we were acting in our interests when we found and killed him. Ditto attacking and destroying Al Qaeda. But did any of that put us on the “right side” ? I don’t believe so. I still remember reading Bin Laden’s writing about the Israeli F16s flattening the apartment towers of Beirut in his youth while he was there, and how he wished that he could dispatch such destruction on the country of the makers of those planes.
I think we’ve cleverly constructed a set of morals that allows us to sell fighter planes to Israel so they can use them to flatten apartment towers full of innocent civilians, while arguing that our own skyscrapers are off–limits.
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: I don’t think it matters, morally, whether you feel sorrow/sympathy/empathy for the russian victims: in my view, emotions are not moral obligations.
For what it’s worth, I do feel some sympathy for the russians killed in the Ukraine war: because they have been lied to. They had never heard the truth about what is happening. One other thing informs my thinking: when I was a child/teen, my parents were so close to their best friends that we were, de facto, one blended family. During the Vietnam war, the oldest son of that family- whom I regarded as a brother- served 4 years in a maximum security federal prison for draft resistance. He was basically destroyed by that experience, and died a few years later. I was exempt from that decision because I was female, but I have always wondered if I would have had the courage to do the same thing. You don’t know until you’ve been tried.
I do think that “we don’t want to become like them” is incredibly important. The French Revolution in the 18th century was totally justified, but resulted in the Reign of Terror and then the dictatorship of Napoleon Bonaparte- with all the wars/destruction that he started. The Russian revolutions were also justified- and we know how that ended. If “we” become like “them” we can easily end up making things worse…
Comrade Bukharin
@Chetan Murthy: Yes, I’m worried the next mass casualty terrorist attack here will be Gaza related.
Ksmiami
Russia needs to be destroyed. It cannot continue to exist in its current political condition.
Joy in FL
Thanks for these reliable posts, Adam.
I sent money to Eugene Kibets because of your post of Nate Mook, whose post included the one about Eugene Kibets and the cats.
brendancalling
@Chetan Murthy: I just chop them up really fine.
An ex of mine, who I am still close with, has elderly parents who were initially evacuated to Poland and are now back in Kyiv. I could not care less about tonight’s attack in Moscow. I don’t care who objects. I’m not dancing in the streets, but I have about as much sympathy for a heroin dealer who gets shot down by a rival. And that is to say nothing about Russia’s meddling in our elections, which led to 4 years of TFG and an ongoing battle against his base, Big Stupid. Needless to say, I’ve got some grievances.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
For at least a decade, their internal security forces have been focused on preventing and cracking down on “civil unrest”, no matter how minor.
That seriously erodes basic competency through out the entire command chain and boots on the ground. Pretty hard to remember core training as an OMON “SWAT” team going into a terrorist attack with active shooters and crowds of innocents,
when you’ve spent the last 10 years brutalizing Pussy Riot Fans.
They ignored warnings from the US IC because that is not something they would do, other than as disinfo.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: I first read this argument about competency and how it is affected by what amount to crowd control and oppression operations, in Martin Van Creveld’s book on 4th generation warfare. He made the point that this was happening to Israel’s army in the Occupied Territories, and that it would happen to the US in our colonial wars.
Chris
@Jay:
I wonder how much the fact that they’ve taken over everything might have damaged their skills.
The ex-KGB types today don’t just run the security state. They run the crime, they run the business, and of course they run the government. How many people are there entering FSB, SVR, and GRU today who aren’t really looking to join an intelligence community so much as just looking for a foot in the door to the country’s power elite?
Ksmiami
@brendancalling: yeah. Not really sympathetic to that alcoholic thug state. Sorry not sorry
Adam L Silverman
@Joy in FL: You’re most welcome. And good on you.
Chetan Murthy
@Chris: Mark Galeotti had a recent episode on this subject. He was talking about the execution of that RU helicopter pilot who defected (found shot to pieces in a parking garage in Spain) and the attack against one of Navalny’s lieutenants in Latvia (? a Baltic state). He argued that these almost certainly the work of local gangs, and he stitched it all back to Russia-based crime networks. And explained how the FSB and GRU would get in bed with them, making it clear that the networks needed to perform tasks for the FSB/GRU in exchange for, y’know, continuing to breathe. etc.
He also explained that basically this meant that the state had legitimized these crime networks even *inside* Russia: as long as they don’t thieve too much, as long as they keep things somewhat orderly, as long as they never challenge the state, they’ll be left alone. [surely, also as long as they tithe properly to the right FSB colonel]
Roberto el oso
@Chetan Murthy: I understand what you’re saying. I suppose the primary ‘moral’ grounds for opposing, or being especially horrified by attacks on civilians is that it is a war crime, even when the circumstances are blurred. Terrorism is always the go-to effort for groups who cannot compete on traditional battlefield settings, and is often (but not always) a last resort, bred from the desperation to do something to strike back against the more powerful oppressor.
And, like everything else, acts of terrorism can be justified or condemned based on one’s feelings about the attackers vs the victims. I cannot think of any group which has historically engaged in terrorism which has not had supporters who regard the acts as those of ‘freedom fighters’.
There are times when appealing to some higher level of morality is like appealing to ‘God’s natural law’ or some other concept, and in the end (unless one is a complete pacifist) one makes one’s choice as to which situations allow for the ends to justify the means. In other words, morality (or Morality) goes out the window.
Chetan Murthy
@Roberto el oso: I’m asking *why* is it a war crime ? And specifically, why is it a war crime for a nation that is itself being subjected regularly to those war crimes, to respond in kind ?
Concretely, why is it [morally] wrong for Ukraine to respond in kind to what happened to Mariupol ?
If the answer is “two wrongs don’t make a right,” well, that’s not very convincing.
P.S. I hope it’s clear that I don’t want UA to respond with war crimes against RU. B/c I don’t think it’ll help UA win, and might actually hurt UA’s efforts. But those are *expedient* reasons. Also, I don’t want Ukrainians to turn into mirror-image of Russians. And that’s a moral reason. But that’s all I got.
Jay
@Chris:
well, it is now Day 6 of the Russian invasion and occupation of ruZZia. The only “effective” response by ruZZia has been to flatten their own towns with out evacuating them.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Didn’t Denys Davydov say a couple of days ago that RU was organizing evac of all kids from Belgorod ?
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
It’s a War Crime because of International Law.
It erodes and can negate the “justness” of your cause.
In a “normal” Nation, it erodes the morale and effectiveness of your Military. It is one thing to ask your people to fight, die, kill, and another to become monsters. In the end, monsters come home.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay:
An “International Law” that demands that a nation lie down and be murdered, and does nothing about it, is a contemptible international law. It doesn’t speak of justice, but only of power.
The rest of what you wrote, I agree with.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
They are still “organizing”. But it’s Belogrod, the city, not Belogrod, the Oblast. The many towns and villages have been left to themselves, and they still haven’t warned the public that Belogrod Oblast is being invaded.
War Translated had a clip a couple of days ago, of a Village Nona, who lost everything, and had no clue what was happening, until RUAS helo’s flattened her village with unguided missiles and arty.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Blame the winners of WWII.
glc
I wonder why Isis-Khorasan is active in Moscow. I suppose this has to do with the North Caucasus, which hasn’t been very active lately. I don’t see an objective. People who follow this presumably know what the point was. I suppose that might include the FSB.
Jager
@Chetan Murthy:
No, Vlad wants to score 8 goals in a hockey game and get applause. The crowd is maybe getting hip to his BS after all this time.
Does anyone in Ruzzia realize what a wasteland their country would be if a well-equipped military attacked them? I’d bet Poles would be drinking vodka in Red Square in a few weeks.
My BIL did a lot of work in Ruzzia, he said outside of the major cities, the country is a place where they put septic systems next to the wells.
Roberto el oso
@Chetan Murthy: the ‘why’ is because of the Nuremberg trials. After the horror of WWII, the war crimes trials (Nuremberg, other places in Germany, Tokyo, etc.) were an attempt to actually list what things could not be done during wartime. It seems pretty obvious that no one involved on the victorious side was so naive as to think this would put an end to atrocities, but it did then lead to various codes and treaties which required nations to sign, thereby putting them on record, as it were.
I’m pretty confident you already know all the above, and are asking ‘why’ on a somewhat different, deeper level?
I personally think that the attempts to codify behavior during wartime, while not blindly naive, was more in the hope of better outcomes going forward. We’ve all seen (and lived through the postwar years) how that worked out. Some militaries take the matter seriously and some clearly do not.
And yes, it’s quite clear that you’re not advocating for a tit-for-tat response from UA against RU.
One further note: in some aspects the war crimes trials are also very much a case of the victors writing the history. For instance, the Soviets wanted the indiscriminate bombing of cities to be listed as a war crime because of how they had suffered. But it didn’t make the list because the US and the UK weren’t about to agree that the fire-bombings they’d both engaged in were war crimes (and this despite the Nazi Blitz against the Brits). There were also attempts by the Chinese (the Chiang Kai-Shek faction), as well as representatives of the Philippines to have rape added to the list (the behavior of the IJA in Nanking and Manila and pretty much everywhere in between) but this was rejected because the Soviet Red Army had raped its way from the borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania, etc., through to Berlin.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy:
I get where you’re coming from, but I think you might be making a category error.
Wikipedia – Geneva Conventions:
That’s the bottom line.
Prisoners, the wounded, civilians are not taking part in hostilities, so they should be protected.
The Conventions don’t address the military flattening an enemy Army base, etc., with some awful weapon.
Of course, VVP’s russia (and many of his friends and allies) has/have shown no interest in protecting non-combatants and that’s a huge problem. The longer the Ukraine war goes on without his defeat, the more dangerous he is to all of us.
My $0.02. (I’m not a diplomat or international law expert.)
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@Roberto el oso:
A long time ago, i remember some people describing the laws that came out of the Nuremberg trials as “victor’s justice”. At the time, I was unconvinced. But seeing how RU does whatever it wants and UA cannot respond, and the West just sits idly by, I see their point. I also remember (in an NYRB article about the carbomb (“Buda’s Wagon”)) a quote from some Hamas commander: “the suicide vest is the poor man’s F16: give us F16s and we’ll stop using suicide bombers.”
There is a lot of hypocrisy in what we decide is a war crime and what isn’t.
HumboldtBlue
@Chetan Murthy:
I just watched video from inside the theater. They are murdering cowards. Nothing more, murdering fucking cowards shooting down unaware, unarmed, innocent human beings.
That they were Russian victims in Russia means nothing, that’s an attack on the very core of our humanity and a murderous assault on our shared community.
We do murderous shit to each other every goddamn day, and we have seen and continue to see the deliberate killing of civilians in every chapter of human history, and it’s always an abomination, and this was an abomination as well.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: How willing are you to become a monster or to ask others to become monsters on your behalf? The rules are there to try to prevent that. Are they perfect? No. Is there some hypocrisy involved? Yes. Imperfectly enforced imperfect rules are still better than a race to the bottom.
Sister Golden Bear
@Devore: And not just training the pilots, it’s training all of the many, many people needed to get them flying.
Plus amassing all the needed spare parts. Don’t remember the link, but I read an article discussing the latter, and how a 100,000 sq ft warehouse was needed to for all the parts needed for a small number of planes.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: As I noted in my original comment/request, I accepted this moral argument. I was asking if there are *other* moral arguments, that is to say, other than this one.
glc
@glc: Well I see the Guardian is discussing this. In particular:
It still seems a bit thin as to context and aims but they do have a bit more to say.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy:
Why do you need more? Isn’t that enough?
pieceofpeace
Thanks, Adam, again…
Treat yourself with some craziness for no reason except that it feels good and might take you into another realm for a bit.
Chetan Murthy
@Omnes Omnibus: So, Concretely. I don’t want UA to engage in these acts, for both the expedient and moral reasons I listed. But why should I not cheer when bad actors like ISIS-K do so? Or if civil strife breaks out in Russia? That’s what I’m asking, really.
HumboldtBlue
Here are some bird calls you’ve never seen before.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chetan Murthy: I think starting down the road of dehumanizing others ends in an ugly place. I choose not to go there. You can do as you wish.
Jay
@glc:
The is a large Chechen, Intenguish and Dagestani criminal network in Moscow. Most are “refugees” from the Chechen Wars. Many were/are Muj.
Some things that might have put Moscow in the crosshairs,
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
I don’t take any joy, I just note that “you reap what you sow” and move on.
DMcK
@Chetan Murthy: Because mass murder and/or civil strife are nothing to cheer about no matter when or where such things occur? (edited for clarity and civility)
Jay
@DMcK:
I believe he means civil war, mass protests or Russian’s sabotaging the ruZZian state.
DMcK
@Jay:
OK, but those are three very different things!
wjca
Which is why our intelligence folks tried to warn the Russians.
Unfortunately, people who would never do such a thing, but do routinely engage in disinformation, aren’t likely to believe such a warning. And they didn’t.
Westyny
Thanks, Adam.
Citizen Alan
@Omnes Omnibus: Some people dehumanize themselves by demonstrating consistently that they view human decency as a weakness. In this country, we only have two political parties, and one of them is completely under the sway of a nihilistic death cult that will start pogroms the second they gain the power to do so. The great majority of the Russian people seem to be proud of their leaders’ genocidal aims in the Ukraine (and elsewhere if Ukraine falls). When they stand up and act like they want to be god-damned human beings, then I will show some compassion for their suffering. But not before.
Jay
@wjca:
Bucha and many others.
They did such things.
evodevo
@Jay: wjca means warn a sworn enemy about a possible terror attack…something the Russians would never do because reasons…See: MAGA Republicans and “projection” for an American example LOL
Chris Johnson
@TeezySkeezy: This is a good point.
Bear in mind that Russia’s whole propaganda direction toward their own people is this: NATO wants to kill you, because they are the USA and the USA wants to kill you, and therefore we want to kill them AND, repeat AND, we are way more powerful than them. That’s the constant message. The invaders are constantly at the door AND the patriotic heroes will always keep you safe if you just keep on clapping.
So here’s the thing: if the US warns of an ISIS attack, and then the attack happens, there are two conclusions that can be drawn:
Someone else both wants to hurt you and was able to, meaning we lied, and also didn’t protect you, or
The USA slash NATO is lying and it’s not ISIS, it is in fact them, what’s more they succeeded and we didn’t protect you. Panic! Swan Lake, pronto! Surrender, our leaders are apparently crap and have lost their eternal war!
So you can see why Russia is having trouble settling on a narrative, and in fact this is why warning them was smart. It’s not just humanitarian. It throws a monkey wrench into totalitarian propaganda.
In fact I believe that ISIS objects to Russia. There is no reason they should devote themselves to Russia’s imperialism, only if it helps them, and right now I don’t think it does. Plus, with the huge focus on NATO and the USA in the propaganda, Russia ends up more blind to real threats, which this is.
Reliance on propaganda and totalitarianism doesn’t only destabilize the nation being targeted for war. It also produces weaknesses in the nation making war: the world has to conform to the propaganda or it’s trouble, and Russia has to behave like everything is NATO and the USA and also that they are invincible.
Yet they cannot beat Ukraine, and are making other enemies.
We might actually end up having to bail them out of their shit, both for humanitarian reasons and because it’s a counter to the decades of propaganda.
Chris
@Chetan Murthy:
To be fair, crime syndicates will always suck up to the authorities, and far too many authorities have found it convenient to have such people on speed-dial, so the basic principle you’re describing is nothing new, or even uniquely Russian.
What’s worriesome today is the extent to which the Russians have been able to internationalize the principle and turn the global underworld into an extension of themselves. I don’t think there’s been an enemy of the West that’s managed to do that before. A hundred years ago for example there was a widespread Italian diaspora that sprouted gangsters in multiple other countries, but those gangsters didn’t all or even mostly work for Mussolini (and not because he didn’t want them to – but for the most part they were more interested in currying the favor of the American, Canadian, French, or whatever government they were living under). Whereas today? The Russian mob pretty much universally seems to work for the Kremlin, whether they’re in the United States or Cyprus or Australia. And it’s not even just the Russian mob, or even just the mob per se! The work they’ve put into aligning with corrupt white collar criminals without a drop of Russian blood in so many countries is possibly even worse – the entire Trump organization is this in a nutshell, after all.
Manyakitty
@Gin & Tonic: Jake Sullivan should go fuck himself.
wjca
I seem to recall a story about a major US gangster sending word (to Sicily, I think) telling the mafia there not to oppose the Allied attacks there (Operation Husky).
Bdawg
While I agree the Biden administration should stop being wusses and have some self reflection, it’s hard to get past the part where republicans are causing these problems by being on Putin’s side.