Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

Never forget that he train is barreling down on Trump, even as he dances on the tracks.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

The willow is too close to the house.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

Ah, the different things are different argument.

“They not like us!” (that’s for sure!)

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” is supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

The jury literally has a bell they can ring to force Trump to show up on command. Greatest thing ever!

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

Everybody saw this coming.

Nikki Haley, who can’t acknowledge ‘slavery’, is a pathetic shill.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

“Let’s not pretend [Trump] wants to engage in high-minded discourse.”

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 760: Russia Bombards Ukrainian Civilian Targets Again!

War for Ukraine Day 760: Russia Bombards Ukrainian Civilian Targets Again!

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Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two notes before we start: 1) There are still a LOT of videos and imagery circulating of the Russians torturing the Tajiks they scarfed up yesterday and are blaming for the terrorist attack on the Crocus disco. DO NOT go looking for them. You don’t need to see them. 2) There was some confusion as to whether the Russians cutting one of these captives ears off was actually from yesterday or from last year. It was from yesterday. What you’re remembering was from 2022. It was the castration of a Ukrainian POW by a Russian soldier from Buryatia.

As I type this, at 5:20 PM EDT, the air alert is tracker for Ukraine is clear. For now…

Russia opened up on Ukraine again last night.

Machine translation of the Polish MOD’s statement:

❗ We would like to inform you that on March 24 this year at. 4.23, there was a violation of Polish airspace by one of the cruise missiles launched this night by long-range aviation of the Russian Federation. The targets of the strikes were towns in western Ukraine.

The object entered Polish space near the town of Oserdów (Lublin Voivodeship) and stayed there for 39 seconds. During the entire flight, he was observed by military radar systems.

Tonight all necessary procedures to ensure the safety of Polish airspace were launched. Among other things, Polish and allied aviation was activated.

#WojskoPolskie monitors the situation on the territory of Ukraine on an ongoing basis and remains on constant readiness to ensure the safety of Polish airspace.

We’ll have more on the attacks after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Russian terrorists used almost 190 missiles, about 140 “Shahed” drones and almost 700 guided aerial bombs this week – address by the President of Ukraine

24 March 2024 – 20:40

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

First, I would like to thank our defenders of the sky. I am grateful to all the warriors of the mobile firing groups, our aviation, the Air Defense Forces of the Ground Forces, and all the specialists of our electronic warfare. Thank you for every missile shot down, for every downed “Shahed” drone.

Of course, our sky shield requires significant strengthening. We are working on this with all our partners whose decisions can change the nature of this war and protect our cities and villages from terror. But already now, our warriors are shooting down at least some of the missiles and most of the “Shahed” drones.

Over the past week, from Monday to today, Russian terrorists have used nearly 190 missiles of various types and almost 140 “Shahed” drones. Also, they launched almost 700 guided aerial bombs. There has not been a single week in the more than 2 years of this war when Russia refrained from terror. And we are doing our best to make sure that the occupation contingent feels our quite fair response to this terror in the same way – every week, every day.

I am grateful to all of our heroes who destroy enemy logistics in the occupied territories. Those who clear Crimea and the Black Sea of the occupiers’ presence. This is a difficult task, but our warriors are completing it step by step. Everyone sees it.

And, of course, I would like to express my special gratitude to all units of our Defense and Security Forces that reduce Russia’s war potential. The less money Putin’s system makes, the stronger the sanctions against it and the physical destruction of Russia’s war potential, the sooner Ukraine, our Europe, and the world will feel safe again.

Restoration work is underway in some of our regions after the Russian strikes on Friday night. I am grateful to everyone who is working non-stop in Kharkiv to restore electricity and heat supply to people. The situation is extremely difficult. More than 200,000 customers – apartments and houses – in the city of Kharkiv and one of the districts of the region are without stable power supply and are subject to rather tough electricity schedules. Local authorities, all services and the government clearly understand the timeframe and technical basis for normalizing the situation. In other regions, electricity supply has been restored to all consumers. I am grateful to everyone who ensured this result and to everyone in the world, all our partners, who supported Ukraine after such a heinous attack against our energy sector.

One more thing.

This week yielded many results in relations with partners. The European Union has approved a €5 billion Ukraine Assistance Fund. This will significantly contribute to our defense. There is a new €4.5 billion macro-financial tranche from the European Union. There is also a decision on a new IMF tranche – almost $900 million. Canada has provided 2 billion Canadian dollars in macro-financial direct budgetary support.

There are good results in terms of defense support packages as well, with both received packages and new ones announced. These include artillery, drones, and armored vehicles. I have also just spoken with Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez. We focused on air defense for Ukraine, as we need more systems. We also discussed our cooperation with Spain at the bilateral level and in European institutions. I am grateful to Spain for its unwavering support and our shared belief that life must prevail.

The key is not to grow weary, not to reduce our activity, not to lose faith in Ukraine, in our people, and in our ability to convey to the world that the enemy of human life has no right to win – Putin has no right to win. He must lose the ability to destroy the lives of others. This is the only way to ensure the common security of our people, of all Europeans, of the whole world. I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! Glory to all our warriors, to all our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

First some good news:

Great news 🔥
-2 russian ships.
Overnight, the Ukrainian Air Force successfully struck “Yamal” and “Azov” Ropucha-class landing ships in temporarily occupied Sevastopol.
In addition, the russian Black Sea Fleet’s communications center and several infrastructure facilities were hit.

Bravo! Crimea is Ukraine!

Anne Applebaum is correct:

This is what happens when you treat an ongoing revolt against the federal government and the constitution, led by the former president and his key surrogates and allies, as if it is an ordinary criminal case. Sure the DOJ has arrested, prosecuted, and gotten convictions of six hundred or so dumbasses and a dozen more serious actors from the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers. But at the end of the day, the leaders of this revolt, who planned and led the insurrection on 6 January 2021, have either not been arrested, are never going to be arrested, or are unlikely to ever actually be prosecuted or convicted. None of the members of the GOP House caucus that we know were involved have been charged. And we know there were at least a half dozen. Same for the Senators. That the DOJ treated PA Representative Scott Perry’s claim that his planning and conspiring with the President, as well as other leaders of the insurrection and rebellion like Bannon and Giuliani and Ginni Thomas is somehow covered under the Speech and Debate clause of the constitution is just absurd. You have a member of Congress who is also a brigadier general in open revolt against the federal government and DOJ reluctantly seized his phones and has sat on them for well over a year because Perry claims his activities are covered under the Speech and Debate clause. That’s just preposterous. If a state or the administration of a state cannot or will not defend itself against open revolt then it isn’t much of a state or an administration.

And now more on the Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets.

If only you were the ambassador for the nation-state with the most powerful military in history, which is also a member of the most powerful military alliance in history. Then, perhaps, you might be able to do something more than tweet.

Like this:

Lithuania’s Foreign Minister gets it!

Poland:

⚡️Warsaw to ‘demand explanations’ from Moscow after Russian missile entered Polish airspace.

Poland will demand explanations from Moscow after a Russian missile violated the Polish airspace during the mass attack against Ukraine on the morning of March 24, the Polish Foreign Ministry said. The Russian cruise missile entered Poland’s airspace for 39 seconds, Jacek Siewiera, chief of Poland’s National Security Bureau, said on X.

Kyiv:

Kharkiv:

⚡️Mayor: Russian attacks destroy thermal power plant, all substations in Kharkiv.

Russian missile and drone attacks have destroyed a thermal power plant and all the electrical substations in Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov told national television on March 24. He also said that electricity supply had been restored for approximately 40% of Kharkiv residents. Meanwhile, heating has been restored in 60% of the buildings, and almost all of them have water supply, according to Terekhov.

 

Lviv:

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

West of Bakhmut and Avdiivka:

Not quite sure where this is in Ukraine:

Tymofiy Mylovanov, the President of the Kyiv School of Economics, has written an excellent assessment of what is actually going on. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

The Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol that hosts the Russian Black Sea fleet has been confirmed by Russian state media. There are dead and injured.

Ukrainian media report that UK made storm shadows hit a communication center of the Russia fleet 2/

This night Russia launched multiple missiles across the entire Ukraine. It is too early for videos of the damage, but explosions and interceptions are reported across the country. The attack continues

Russia used 14 strategic bombers at once, 2 warships, and drones 3/ 

At the moment, Russian missiles are in the air in these regions: Lviv, Chernihiv, Cheraksy, Kyiv, Khmelnytsky, Vinnytsya, Volyn,Ternopil, Rivne 4/ 
A moment ago, Ukrainian media reported another successful attack on Crimea. This time not in Sevastopol, but Hvardiyske 5/Image
This is why these exchanges are unlikely to be related to the Moscow terror attack

1. It takes considerable time to prepare attacks at this scale.

For example, Russian missiles are code to maneuver through areas without Ukrainian air defense or evade it when impossible 6/ 

They are also coordinated to hit cities at once. The missiles change directions multiple times, travel in very convoluted patterns, and stay in the air for a long time – sometimes over an hour.

Designing, coordinating, and coding these missions is hard and takes time 7/ 

The same is true for Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. Ukrainian attacks are much more focused and much smaller in scale and numbers of missiles.

To be successful Ukraine compensates by better preparation, intelligence, mission design and execution 8/ 

2. These exchanges have been ongoing and had escalated before the terror attack in Moscow

Ukraine and Kyiv in particular have been bombed intensively for the last several days, starting two days before the attack in Moscow 9/

Russian attacks before the Moscow terror have been massive and plunged Ukraine, especially the East into a blackout. They also hit the largest (remaining) hydro dam in Ukraine. The blackout is ongoing 10/

Unroll available on Thread Reader
In turn, Ukraine has been busy taking apart Russian oil refineries.

These attacks have been successful to the extent that there are reports the U.S. had asked Ukraine to stop these attacks afraid of escalation by Russia. 11/ politico.eu/article/report…
Image

Ukraine denies there had been a request. But even if it were, Ukraine has defied it and continued to target Russian oil infrastructure. The latest attack was yesterday 12/ independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
Image

Indirectly, this is evidence that Ukraine is not behind the terror attack in Moscow.

Ukraine carries out operations in Russia, including Moscow.
13/ 

Media report two types of operations:

1. Targeted assassinations of military, defectors, Russian installed politicians in occupation

2. Targeted attacks on military and defense production infrastructure

Ukraine does not and have never carried out terrorist attacks 14/ 

But as I wrote yesterday, Putin might not have a choice but to blame Ukraine for the terrorist attack in Moscow 15/

Unroll available on Thread Reader
Otherwise he will appear weak. Russians might not care about how many people die in Ukraine but they do care about what happens in Moscow.

If the attack is not connected to Ukraine, then Putin’s propaganda against Ukraine and justification for the invasion become nil 16/

So, the Russian info operations have been busy arguing Ukraine connection

One argument is that the terrorist were traveling to Ukraine. Why on earth would you do that? If anything, you are guaranteed to be captured or killed by Russian troops before you get to the contact line/

Also, the city in which the suspects were arrested is closer (and faster) to Belarus than Ukraine. Plus the border control is a bit easier (sarcasm) in Belarus than at the front line between Russia and Ukraine 18/
Image
Image
But as I wrote yesterday, it might be difficult to ignore the evidence. For example, the fact that ISIS has access to video from the terrorist cameras, while Russian security doesn’t (yet) 20/

However, many people, even in the West, don’t need evidence. They are certain that it looks “increasingly likely” Ukraine is behind the attack on Moscow. 21/

There is also disinformation and amplification of disinformation.

An account post “evidence” that one of the suspects had served in Ukrainian military and is a Ukrainian citizen

No matter that all other suspects are Russian citizens and Tajiks – that doesn’t matter 22/Image

The report gets amplified only to be refuted later. The name of the suspect may be different, he isn’t Ukrainian, and hasn’t served in Ukraine armed forces.

But the original post pushing this disinformation gets 10s of m views, while it’s refutation – 2.7 m views

23/

Image

Russian politicians now claim that attacks and bombings of Ukraine is a retaliation for the Moscow terror attack 24/

As the Russian attack on Ukraine continues, there are reports that three Russian missiles crossed into Poland and Polish Air Force is on alert 24/

 

Speaking of the tit for tat, Ukraine hit another Russian refinery:

Here’s the machine translation of the original tweet:

The genocide of Russian refineries continues. At night, UAVs flew into the Rosneft oil refinery in the village. Novokuibyshevsk, Samara region. The impact was on the primary oil refining column. The plant is a major producer of jet fuel and is located 900 km away from Ukraine.

A bit more on Russia’s response to the Crocus disco attack:

Hrprogressive, tonight is the night I (finally) have a chance to answer your questions. So here goes!

On 17 FEB, hrprogressive (re)asked:

I want to stress that this is intended to be a good faith question, not a gotcha, or anything, I am legitimately curious.

I also apologize, if you’ve already answered me previously, I have pretty awful memory sometimes so I may legitimately not remember.

So, here goes.

Is there a reason why so many people – whether your updates here, or others around the world – seem to not want to acknowledge that there’s very likely a truth that the GOP legitimately just wants to see Russia win, and legitimately is waiting for the broader decline of western liberal democracy because they believe, hope, want to accelerate, however you wish to frame it – they basically think they deserve to be the autocratic rulers of this country, and will do whatever they can do to get it, short of assassinating their colleagues in D.C. (and I honestly don’t think we’re too far off from that if nothing changes)?

I ask because the use of framing like “dysfunction” and “intransigence” and “bad faith”, from my perception, places the root of the problem in an arena that seems to be missing the forest for the trees.

Sure, in some regards, there is “dysfunction” because there are probably – or were, anyway, till Fuhrer Trump decreed otherwise – some in the GOP (McConnell comes to mind) who legitimately wanted to help defend Ukraine.

But after years of watching the more fascist tendencies come out of the woodwork, both within their voting base, their media sphere, and their elected officials…

I’m legitimately surprised that more people are still framing it in a way that seems more akin to “Oh look it’s gridlock in Washington again” – which, again, I know that’s not how you think of it at all, but.

I’d like to think if more parties with platforms started saying “Hey, just so you know, the GOP actually wants Russia to win and they can’t wait to try and seize power here too, so maybe ask them about that”…it might sink in.

I am concerned that the apparent reticence to broach the topic in these terms is…well, it doesn’t paint nearly as dire a picture as it should, IMO.

Anyway.

Sorry for being long-winded, and I know you have a ton going on, so, I like the other Juicers do appreciate what you do. Just legitimately wondering if there’s a reason why others don’t seem to be framing the problem this way.

Thanks.

I think one part of the answer, which is the simplest part, is normalcy bias. Most people just assume or operate as if what happens is happening within the normal boundaries of politics. So if Biden, a senior member of his administration, or a Democratic senator or representative says X and Trump, one of his surrogates, or a Republican senator or representative says Y in response, then the assumption is this is just normal partisan politics. The political reporters/press, as well as the print gatekeeper The New York Times, certainly function this way as well. This is a combination of fear of being accused of being biased or liberal, needing to keep horse race coverage going, and in the case of The NY Times the very clear guidance given by the current Sulzberger running the place. This is then exploited by Trump, his surrogates, Republican senators, representatives, and governors, as well as hostile foreign actors. The goal here is to create the dynamic reflected in the title of Peter Pomarantsev’s book about Putin’s Russia: Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible. The goal is to create this reality everywhere. To ensure that nothing is true and, therefore, anything and everything is possible. The destruction of objective reality. Just refer back to the deepfakes referenced above that Moscow has pushed out to justify its claims that Ukraine was behind the attack on the Crocus disco.

On 19 MAR, hrprogressive followed up with:

Hey, Adam – I know you’ve been super, super, mega busy in the last couple of weeks, and I appreciate your continued updates throughout.

Thought this update was “on-topic” to the question I posed a while back that you had mentioned being able to circle back around to link to comment from 16 FEB thread

I just don’t see this as “The United States is Failing an Ally”.

I see this as a small band of fascist thugs in the US House of Representatives actively undermining America because their ultimate goal is to see the fall of Ukraine, the fall of the USA, and the fall of western liberal democracy, period.

I still can’t understand why so many people (not you specifically, just commentary in general) still refuse to say this out loud.

Are people really that “of course it can’t be happening here?” about it, or do they really, truly not see the threat that is right in front of them?

Time’s running out, IMO.

Certainly appreciate any insight you might be able to provide, when you have the capacity of course.

Stay well for the times we’re in. Thanks!

The United States is failing an ally. But it is failing an ally for three reasons. The first and current reason that we’re all concerned about is because the House majority GOP caucus has not brought up a supplemental bill to provide Ukraine with more aid/to meet Ukraine’s needs in its defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. And they have not done this because Trump has made it clear he does not want them too. Part of that is because Trump believes he can end the war very quickly and, of course, on terms favorable to Putin. And Trump wants to do this in order to get his revenge on Zelenskyy for not playing ball in providing fabricated dirt on Biden, which led to the first impeachment of Trump. He also wants to do this to teach our NATO partners a lesson: I’ll decide if you get help, I’ll decide if you live or die, so pay me or you’re on your own.

The second and third reasons are related. They are that the Biden administration’s strategy regarding Ukraine is to do just enough so that Ukraine doesn’t lose, but not enough so that it can win. This was coupled with an unrealistic legislative strategy that despite all actual indicators that they would be able to get more aid for Ukraine regardless of which party controlled Congress. This was naive. If you recall the newsletter I did way back in the spring of 2022 when the site was being held hostage, one of the points was that Ukraine needed to ask for everything it thought it might need through the end of 2024 before the end of 2022, because if the GOP won control of just one chamber, then US aid to Ukraine would stop. It was clear then that because of the combination of extreme gerrymandering, extreme voter suppression, and state Democratic party stupidity in places like New York, the Democrats were unlikely to retain control of the House.

This is why we are where we are. The Republicans, fully in thrall to Trump, are not going to do anything for Ukraine. Honestly, they’re not going to do anything for Taiwan or Israel or in regard to the border either because Trump doesn’t want them to and because they really don’t want to even manage and mitigate those problems. When you combined this with the Biden administration, which is scared of its own shadow in regard to national security issues and naive about the Republicans willingness to do a deal once they retook the House, we are where we are.

I will leave the last words to Lewis Carrol:

“Alice: Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?
The Cheshire Cat: That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.
Alice: I don’t much care where.
The Cheshire Cat: Then it doesn’t much matter which way you go.
Alice: …So long as I get somewhere.
The Cheshire Cat: Oh, you’re sure to do that, if only you walk long enough.”

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here’s some adjacent material.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

20Comments

  1. 1.

    Ksmiami

    At this point, Biden should just announce that defending Ukraine is an emergency and let the dysfunctional GOP even try to do something about it. Fuck it, sometimes you need to take a risk to do the Rt thing

  2. 2.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    After the J6 insurrection, Trump and his co-conspirators and GOP enablers, should have gotten the “short drop, long dangle” treatment, PDQ.

  3. 3.

    hrprogressive

    First and foremost, thanks so much for offering your perspective on my queries, I really appreciate it.

    My overarching belief for at least the last 4 years, if not earlier, is that when it comes to things like “The Media”, they’re all owned by the same people who would very happily salute a Trump Reich Flag if it meant More Profits for the Shareholders, even if they aren’t explicitly Fascist themselves. So, of course, the media, having at one point in time decided to shy away from “tHe lIbRul mEdiA” bogeyman created during prior periods of Republican power, have now basically decided “Well, you know what, we like the idea of permanent power as elites, so let’s just not even acknowledge that whole demise of democracy thing until it’s too late, and by then we’ll be in power forever”.

    Next, we have the Democratic Party who writ large truly seems to have a form of Stockholm Syndrome where they continue to chase the farcical Bipartisan Unicorn with an increasingly authoritarian GOP because…I legitimately don’t know why anymore. It’s like getting praised for a “Bipartisan Bill” and “Working across the aisle” gives them a drug-like high that they have to chase at all times, at the expense of the citizens. Sure, some of them, at times, will say and do the right things with regards to the Fascist tendencies of…Trump, although I don’t think they’ve ever looked someone like Marge or Boebert straight in the eyes or at a lectern and said “My colleague here is a Fascist, so, you know, screw them”.

    Aside – yes I know that wouldn’t make for great political headwinds of “getting anything done” but the GOP pretty explicitly wants to destroy the mere concept of a barely-representative democracy as it is, so, why they continue to try and get anything done with them is beyond me.

    Biden in particular has been in politics for some what, 50 years at this point? Maybe he’s a nice enough guy, and his SOTU was one that I actually thought was good, but for fuck’s sake he – and a lot of other old-time D’s let’s be honest – do not realize, or can’t bring themselves to admit – that this isn’t the GOP of 30, 40, 50 years ago. It just is not, period, end of sentence, and the idea that you can break bread and legislate with these people in 2024 the same way you could in 1974 is just fucking preposterous.

    Third, and finally, there are certain commentators out there who seem convinced that the Democratic Party – at least, certain members of it – are “in on the fix” to destroy democracy, so they know damn well what Trump and allies are doing, and they either do not care to stop it because they are too wealthy and powerful, or maybe they have designs on their own place in such a regime, I have no idea. Your comment about not treating Jan 6th as seriously as it should be is one echoed by other commentators who can’t believe we’re letting actual coup participants just get away with it so they can try again.

    Sarah Kendzior is one of the loudest voices of these ideas, and yes, she’s written books about it, so…I don’t think that automatically qualifies her as a “grifter” but since I can’t personally independently verify all her (and related parties’) claims, I can’t necessarily defend every single thing she or others have ever said, I just think It’s real interesting the way she weaves together the ideas and basically asks “Would a Democratic Party truly interested in defending democracy actually be doing / not doing the things they are doing / not doing right now?” and it’s often hard to say “No” to those.

    I haven’t been on twitter in over a year now so I have no idea what she and her followers are up to but I can’t imagine she’s changed her tune on anything recently. Anyway.

    This shit just seems so blindingly obvious to anyone with eyes, and I get it, maybe a lot of people don’t really want to admit that one of two major political parties wants to destroy the republic as we know it, and the other one doesn’t seem to be nearly as concerned about it as they should be, and the media will literally “bothsides us into fascism” because their CEO’s and shareholders would stand to benefit from such an arrangement, at least that’s what they hope, so it’s up to…regular people to hopefully do the right thing?

    I just think that, absent some sort of “black swan event” where, I don’t know, Trump chokes on a cheeseburger, and/or Biden gets a second term and appoints a real Attorney General who stops fucking around with Jan 6th and related criminals, I have serious doubts about whether this country survives in its’ duct-taped fashion until 2030.

    I think we got hella lucky both in 2020 and 2022, and maybe we’ll get lucky again in 2024, but we can’t keep just rolling the dice and hoping for the better, some real shit has got to be dealt with not even to make improvements to this country but…you know, to keep it held together as flawed as it is.

    I’m hoping we won’t be thrust into armed civil conflict in the next couple of years, but I have yet to hear anyone give me a good reason why I shouldn’t be concerned about that beyond “We have to vote blue!!!!!!!” over and over again, which I’m sorry, just does not go far enough.

    Anyway, I really appreciate you circling back to me on this, and I hope you have a great rest of your evening to the extent those are possible these days.

    Cheers.

    HRP​​​​​

  4. 4.

    Ksmiami

    @hrprogressive: I think it would be good if we all contacted our Democratic reps etc and remind them of these stakes and to stop trying to negotiate with fascist freaks

  5. 5.

    dirt_first

    Thank you Mr. Silverman.

    …pretty much always lurking, haven’t missed a UKR update yet.

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    Wow, maybe Poland will be moved to send a sternly worded letter.

    But I think your criticism of Ambassador Brink is off the mark. Last I checked, career FSO’s do not have military procurement or deployment authority.

  10. 10.

    Jay

    as Dimitri@War Translated points out ruZZia is just Orthodox ISIS.

    One of the “suspects” was dragged into Court unconscious.

  12. 12.

    SteveinPHX

    Adam, thanks for maintaining this. I had kind of drifted away for a while, but the attacks on getting funding and materiel to Ukraine have really made me worry all over again. I’m no geopolitical wizard, but it should be obvious to all that Ukraine and the NATO alliance are critical to the health of the West.

  14. 14.

    jackmac

    When Russia’s next overfly of Polish territory occurs — and it seems more than likely WILL happen — would the itchy-fingered Poles start to shoot down missles?

    And thanks Adam!

  15. 15.

    dimmsdale

    My thanks too, Adam. I’m finding that when you’re able to write in detail about what we’re experiencing, your conclusions ring absolutely true and add enormously to my understanding. I’m entirely at a loss to understand the candy-ass Biden admin approach to Ukraine, especially in light of your, and Timothy Snyder’s, and Fiona Hill’s (to name a couple) warnings about Russian goals (and also in light of the genocide Russia is committing daily). But I digress. Thanks as always.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @hrprogressive: The MSMs represent the interests of the capital owning class, & most capital owners are content to accommodate w/ the power that be (whoever it may be) to protect their financial interests. They could be allies for protecting or advancing permissive social values, but not necessarily liberal democracy domestically or peace & justice internationally.

    Remember how during the 2008 & 2012 elections a lot of people (myself included) thought internet tech companies & the cultural values they represented would help keep the reactionary Rs in the minority? Well, it turns out some of the TechBros are techno-libertarian/authoritarians who embraced & indeed further radicalized the Rs. As tech companies achieved monopolistic/oligopoistic dominance, they eagerly engaged w/ the Rs (formerly of Congress or the Trump Administration) to protect their positions. The likes of Palantir, Oracle & Microsoft became part of the MIC, & SV VCs are piling into defense tech. to chase after the fat appropriations (attracting a whole lot of grifters). It has been well established that Palantir & Meta have spent tens of millions lobbying Congress to ban TikTok, Dell & HP have lobbied Congress & Trump/Biden Administrations to restrict Lenovo, Micron has been the driving force behind tech sanctions on Chinese memory makers YTMC/CXMT/Fujian Jinhua (even though memories are commodity products & Chinese made memories are not in devices that go to Western markets), all w/ natsec justifications. It would not surprise me if Amazon starts to do the same to Shein & Temu to kneecap the emerging competition. Not only can US Big Tech stop the Chinese competition from entering their home turf, they can get the USG to suppress the competition across world markets via extraterritorial application of US sanctions. MSM, Big Tech & defense tech. VCs can make bank by leaning into the rivalry w/ the PRC, which they can’t w/ Ukraine & Russia (at least not to nearly the same degree).

    Finally, I think a large part of US policy elite (Administrations & Congress, think tanks, MSM, etc., including many Ds & D supporters) simply believe that the much more important struggle is the Great Power Competition(TM) w/ the PRC, whereas too much resources expended on Ukraine & Russia risks distracting from that central (in their minds) struggle. Deep down, they are animated by preserving US primacy, rather than promoting liberal democracy or establishing a just & fair rules based international order. Some of the R think tankers have been making that case explicitly, which dovetails nicely w/ their inclination to accommodate Putin.  Just look at how many PRC related legislations get proposed & passed by Congress, & how quickly they are passed w/ large bipartisan majorities, vs. how difficult it is to pass anything else. Even domestic industrial policy have to be justified on the grounds of gaining advantage in the Great Power Competition. All of that suck a whole lot of oxygen from anything not to do w/ Great Power Competition.

    On Election Day, electing Ds, and more Ds, absolutely should be the only goal. Outside of that, however, we need to get better Ds for things to change.

    I also agree w/ Adam that, if push comes to shove, many of the Rs playacting as China Hawks would abandon Taiwan just as they have Ukraine. They are play up the PRC threat to heighten the atmosphere of fear, anxiety & xenophobia against the Other in the US electorate, which create an environment amenable to their reactionary authoritarian project. Trump is a coward who would much rather cut a deal that he can claim as a “win” domestically, than risking actual war w/ anyone. However, there are also many Rs who are committed Cold Warriors that believe in the inevitability of a hot war w/ the PRC, & prefer that such war come sooner rather than later. Plus, a nuclear war w/ the PRC will surely help bring forth Rapture! To me, it is an open question which force will win out should there be a 2nd Trump Administration. Trump has been proven to be easy to manipulate.

  17. 17.

    DB11

    Thanks Adam.

    Nothing to add in the way of a comment, but just to express my ongoing appreciation for your relentless efforts to keep us informed.

  20. 20.

    daveNYC

    @hrprogressive: Third, and finally, there are certain commentators out there who seem convinced that the Democratic Party – at least, certain members of it – are “in on the fix” to destroy democracy, so they know damn well what Trump and allies are doing, and they either do not care to stop it because they are too wealthy and powerful, or maybe they have designs on their own place in such a regime, I have no idea. Your comment about not treating Jan 6th as seriously as it should be is one echoed by other commentators who can’t believe we’re letting actual coup participants just get away with it so they can try again.

    I think the thing there, other than maybe some weird paranoia, is that it is really hard to look at 1/6 and the general behavior of the GOP, and not come to the conclusion that some portion of the Democratic party are  OK with the situation… because the only other explanation is an almost unimaginable level of stupidity and cluelessness.

    Unfortunately I think the answer is worse than stupidity though.  The problem is that most Democrats (and politicians in general) have been part of the generally functional American political system for so long that they are fundamentally incapable of adapting to the fact that Trump has broken that system.  It’s like Lovecraft’s stories where the protagonist goes insane, not because they run into a gribbly cosmic horror looking to eat their face, but because they are forced (due to the gribbly horror) to fully realize that everything they thought about the universe was wrong and now they’re left adrift to try and piece together a worldview to deal with all the gribbly horrors and all that.  And they just can’t.

    Same thing here.  In order to properly deal with Trump and the GOP, you first have to accept that politics in the USA is broken and really cannot be fixed in its current state.  And for most politicians, it’s just a lot easier to pretend that 1/6, Trump, and the current GOP was a fluke, and that any day now they’ll poof off into the ether and things will go back to ‘normal’.

    Also applicable, the Mitchell and Webb skit ‘The Event’.

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