(Air Raid Alert Map of Ukraine at 9;40 PM EDT on 28 MAR 2024)
It’s almost 4 AM in Ukraine and the air raid alert map above shows that Russia is once again threatening Ukraine in the small hours.
From almost two hours ago:
2 in the morning. Just the time to be woken up by air raid sirens screaming outside. pic.twitter.com/z6wAfSd5VI
— Oleksandra Povoroznyk 🇺🇦 (@rynkrynk) March 29, 2024
In addition to destroying civilian infrastructure, especially energy generation, transmission, and agricultural production and storage, one of the other intended effects of these strikes in the middle of the night is to terrorize the Ukrainians. Specifically, to stress them out, fray their nerves, and, as a result, destroy Ukrainian civilian morale and socio-cultural resiliency.
This was the alert fifteen hours ago:
❗️ A missile alert has been declared throughout Ukraine pic.twitter.com/fkCJFQ1qTg
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 28, 2024
Air raid alert in Kyiv. Russian terrorists just won’t stop terrorising Ukrainians #StopRussia #StandWithUkraine
— Mariana Betsa (@Mariana_Betsa) March 28, 2024
Just a reminder that the GOP majority US House of Representatives is on vacation for another ten days or so, which has emboldened Russia to increase its operational tempo.
More on this after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump. (emphasis mine)
We are doing everything to provide our warriors with more opportunities, more weapons; and we will ensure this – address by the President of Ukraine
28 March 2024 – 20:49
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
The key points for today.
I introduced the new Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine to the FIS staff – it is a combat general, Oleh Ivashchenko. He is an experienced and strong person. The analytical potential of our intelligence is quite high, and now we have to enhance its operational capabilities. More information and opportunities for influence are needed.
Russia spends billions and billions of dollars each year on influence operations in other countries. They spread chaos, undermine the work of established institutions, fund disinformation, and bribe civil and political leaders. This concerns different regions of the planet – sensitive regions. Africa, various parts of Asia, and Europe, which is particularly vulnerable to destabilization provoked and fueled by Putin’s system. Both North and Latin America are also targets of Russian intelligence and disruptive activities. In many ways, this influence works against our country and our defense.
Obviously, we cannot match Russia’s resources, including financial ones. But Ukrainians are capable of defeating Russia with their courage, determination, and ideas. The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine should considerably increase its activities in fulfilling the institutional tasks. On the other hand, the robust work of such an organization cannot be cheap. And this is now the task for the government as a whole and the Ministry of Finance: we need to seek and find a financial basis for the work of our intelligence – to expand funding for specific projects, for specific goals, and for the development of the foreign intelligence system in general.
The second point for today.
There was a lot of international communication. We spoke with Mike Johnson, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. We discussed what is crucial now for the protection of life and international security. I informed him of the situation at the front, of the continued Russian attacks on our cities – their terror is only getting worse and can only be stopped by the physical force of our defense. Ukraine is grateful for the support of the United States and every American who shares our belief that freedom must never lose. And it is very important that the Congress maintains its leadership so that the defense of freedom remains a unifying idea both within countries and for the global majority. Right now, it depends on our determination, our joint actions, what the world of our children will be.
Today, we discussed exactly the same things with the President of the French National Assembly, who is on a visit to Ukraine, and I am grateful for her attention to our country and to the way Ukrainians endure this time and this battle. We discussed the prospects of how we can speed up a just end to this war and the expulsion of the Russian occupiers. I thanked the French parliament for its endorsement of the security agreement concluded with President Macron. Of course, we also discussed Emmanuel’s recent security proposals. Anything that enhances protection against Russian aggression and limits Russia’s war potential truly contributes to peace in Europe. I am grateful to all our partners who understand this and help Ukraine.
And today I met with a delegation of MEPs from the Renew Europe group. This is an important European political group. Elections to the European Parliament are coming up, and all of us in Ukraine should get used to the fact that this process is important for Ukraine as well. Of course, we talked about support, about the current threats, and about what we can achieve together in Europe by defending our countries, but also common values, and therefore the security of all Europeans.
And one more thing.
Today, Defense Minister Umerov made a report on the defense packages that we are getting and that we are working on with our partners. We are doing everything to provide our warriors with more opportunities, more weapons. And we will ensure this.
Thank you to everyone who helps! Glory to everyone who defends Ukraine and destroys the occupier.
Glory to Ukraine!
Zelensky says he spoke with House Speaker Johnson and urged him to quickly pass Ukraine military aid bill.
“We recognize that there are differing views in the House of Representatives on how to proceed, but the key is to keep the issue of aid to Ukraine as a unifying factor.” https://t.co/COWyDmQKXh
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 28, 2024
"We need help now": President Zelenskyy says a major Russian offensive is expected in late May or June.
In an interview with CBS News, the President shared that the AFU managed to contain the Russians during the winter months and "stabilize the situation." However, Ukraine is… pic.twitter.com/diTKRcqQp9
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 28, 2024
“We need help now”: President Zelenskyy says a major Russian offensive is expected in late May or June.
In an interview with CBS News, the President shared that the AFU managed to contain the Russians during the winter months and “stabilize the situation.” However, Ukraine is not ready to defend against another major offensive.
The president met with journalists in Sumy region, whose border areas suffer from Russian shellings.
“Usually, when they attack with artillery and destroy villages, after that, they always try to occupy them. We don’t know what will happen tomorrow. That’s why we have to prepare,” Zelenskyy said.
The president said that if Ukraine does not stand, Kazakhstan will be next, then the Baltic states, Poland, and Germany – “at least half of Germany.” Therefore, Zelenskyy called on Western partners to provide Ukraine with more Patriot missile systems and artillery.
“Let’s be honest, the money that Congress appropriates, the administration, in most cases, 80% of that money – well, at least more than 75% – stays in the United States. Those munitions are coming to us, but the production happens there, and the money stays in the U.S., and the taxes stay in the U.S.,” he said.
President Zelenskyy said that the war in Gaza has reduced attention to the war in Ukraine, and Putin is actively making use of it. However, this is not the dictator’s only tool. According to him, Putin is using the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall in an attempt to unite his society and “justify that Ukraine does not exist.”
Addressed the extraordinary Ukraine-@NATO Council meeting, which was held at Ukraine's request.
The primary focus was on russia's recent massive air strikes and the necessity of strengthening Ukraine's air defense.
The total explosive power of combined air attacks on Ukraine… pic.twitter.com/TTuehzpn6b
— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) March 28, 2024
Addressed the extraordinary Ukraine- @NATO Council meeting, which was held at Ukraine’s request.
The primary focus was on russia’s recent massive air strikes and the necessity of strengthening Ukraine’s air defense.
The total explosive power of combined air attacks on Ukraine since the beginning of the year exceeds 9 kilotons. Only 3% of those russian missiles, drones, and guided bombs hit military targets, while 97% struck civilian infrastructure. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights reports that missile and loitering munition attacks caused 712 of the 1,804 civilian casualties verified by the UN during the past 3 months.
Provided an in-depth overview of the urgent air defense needs of Ukraine.
The support of partners in this matter is crucial. It will save thousands of innocent lives.
The more russian missiles are shot down in Ukrainian skies, the less threat they pose to NATO member states that border Ukraine.
Germany:
Great news from Germany 🔥
A new package of German military aid provides:
◾️5 Warthog repair and recovery vehicles
◾️9 Warthog command vehicles
◾️6 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️2 Beaver bridge-laying tanks
◾️1 Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicle
◾️1 Dachs armored engineer… pic.twitter.com/yrfP2oRe9m— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 28, 2024
Great news from Germany 🔥
A new package of German military aid provides:
◾️5 Warthog repair and recovery vehicles
◾️9 Warthog command vehicles
◾️6 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️2 Beaver bridge-laying tanks
◾️1 Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicle
◾️1 Dachs armored engineer vehicle
◾️3 border protection vehicles
◾️6 Zetros tankers
◾️9 mine ploughs
◾️14 VECTOR reconnaissance drones
◾️30 RQ-35 HEIDRUN reconnaissance drones
◾️5 anti-drone sensors and jammers
◾️180 RF 360 fieldkits – drone detection systems
◾️1 Satcom surveillance systems
◾️330 IR cameras
◾️Ammunition for LEOPARD 2 A6
◾️18,000 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️2,056 RGW 90 Matador man-portable anti-tank weapons
◾️24,000 rounds 40mm ammunition
◾️70 GMG grenade launchers
◾️3,000 camouflage nets
◾️2,000 ponchos
◾️2 emergency power generatorsThank you for your steadfast support!
The power of unity brings victory closer!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
@BMVg_Bundeswehr
Czechia:
⚡️Participants in the Czech initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine outside Europe have signed an agreement under which Kyiv will receive one million rounds of ammunition.
This was reported by Corriere della Sera, citing its own sources.
At first, it was assumed… pic.twitter.com/fXGupEHOUt
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 28, 2024
⚡️Participants in the Czech initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine outside Europe have signed an agreement under which Kyiv will receive one million rounds of ammunition.
This was reported by Corriere della Sera, citing its own sources.
At first, it was assumed that 800,000 shells would be purchased: 500,000 155 mm shells and 300,000 122 mm shells, but Czech officials found another 200,000 shells.
“It is not known to which enterprises exactly the requests were addressed, although rumors point in particular to South Korea, Turkey, and possibly South Africa,” the newspaper said.
In addition, according to Corriere della Sera, Ukraine may receive the first batches of ammunition not in June, as the Czech government has previously publicly stated, but as early as April.
A total of 15 countries have joined the Czech initiative, according to the article, including Germany, France, Holland, Norway, Sweden, Portugal, Belgium, Poland and Canada. Not all of them have publicly announced exactly how much they have contributed to the purchase of shells.
Washington DC:
Interesting chapter from Alexander Bick who led the NSC's Russia-Ukraine Tiger Team on the Biden administration's thinking during the Russian buildup:
"Over the fall, the administration was trying to balance two contradictory objectives—to ensure that Ukraine had the… pic.twitter.com/myrQlD8yjw
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 28, 2024
Interesting chapter from Alexander Bick who led the NSC’s Russia-Ukraine Tiger Team on the Biden administration’s thinking during the Russian buildup:
“Over the fall, the administration was trying to balance two contradictory objectives—to ensure that Ukraine had the capabilities to defend itself, while avoiding any steps that might increase the likelihood of an invasion or affix blame on the United States. As Colin Kahl, then under secretary of defense for policy, later put it, ‘we didn’t want to inadvertently speed up the Russian clock, incentivize Putin, or give him a pretext to make a decision he had not made. Us leaning too far forward could create dynamics either within the alliance or as we were trying to build world opinion against the Russians that made us look like we were the provocateurs.'”
https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/oa_edited_volume/chapter/3881922
I clicked the link and gave the chapter a read. I think the excerpt below contains the really important information: (emphasis mine)
Another urgent task was to articulate a list of strategic objectives to guide our plans. Naturally, high-level policy documents on Russia and Ukraine from earlier in the administration had neither foreseen nor developed objectives specific to a full-scale invasion scenario. To develop a coherent plan, we needed the equivalent of “commander’s intent.” The closest thing we had was a list of objectives the Joint Staff had developed for Chairman Milley that he shared with the president during the Oval Office meeting in October. In a later interview, Milley recounted these as: (1) avoid a kinetic conflict between the US military and NATO with Russia, (2) contain the war inside the geographic boundaries of Ukraine, (3) strengthen and maintain NATO unity, and (4) empower Ukraine and give it the means to fight.21 Using these as a starting point, the team developed a more comprehensive list that encompassed our broader diplomatic, humanitarian, and other objectives, including to ensure that Ukraine emerged from the war as a democratic, independent, and sovereign state. This list was reviewed and approved by the Deputies Committee and would guide planning going forward.
Did you catch what is missing here in the discussion of the development of the US’s strategic objectives to guide planning on how to respond when Russia re-invaded Ukraine? There’s nothing there about empowering Ukraine to win. Nor is there anything there about ensuring that Ukraine emerged from the war with all of its territory. This confirms what I assessed was driving the Biden administration’s policy and strategy towards supporting Ukraine. Specifically, that the policy is not for Ukraine to win, nor for it to regain its occupied territories. What is articulated above, which are the strategic objectives the Biden administration developed in regard to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, makes it clear that the US’s policy is not to see Ukraine win, nor to see it emerge from this war with all of its territory. We now have a first person recounting of the US’s strategic failure and malpractice regarding Ukraine.
Kharkiv:
Russia seems to have chosen playgrounds in Kharkiv as their legitimate targets. Tonight Kharkiv was attacked with Shahed drones pic.twitter.com/aCf1rFgSRp
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 28, 2024
This wounded Kharkiv resident rescuing his cat Mia after the recent Russian bombings tells you everything about the heart of the Ukrainian people. 🥺 Another reminder that Russia is a terrorist state. pic.twitter.com/eIWOwawlVn
— Nate Mook (@natemook) March 28, 2024
Somewhere on the Dnipro River courtesy of Magyar’s Birds:
Rus. sappers mining a body of water blow up on their own mine.
Source: Madyar.https://t.co/JFiZ2S6t7R pic.twitter.com/k0P0FK1EdB
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 28, 2024
Krynky, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
/2. Comparison of the projectile on the video with AASM pic.twitter.com/7ksQcElyOU
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 28, 2024
Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:
Russian military jet shot down over Sevastopol. It's unfortunate they still possess many, while Ukraine awaits F-16s. pic.twitter.com/90Gkiv0h6v
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 28, 2024
/2. It looks like the pilot managed to eject. A parachute was spotted in the sky. pic.twitter.com/LxWX8LlP7L
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 28, 2024
/4. About 10 minutes before the first footages of a downed aircraft appeared, Russian sources reported an air raid alert in Sevastopol. pic.twitter.com/LHCXqQ2TLN
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 28, 2024
/6. Detailed video showing the moment of the crash and a crash site. Also, the aircraft model is more likely to be Su-27 rather than Su-35. https://t.co/Z60HAetY35
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) March 28, 2024
Moscow:
If you don't believe me, just check an official statement by the Russian Orthodox Church from May 27.
It's just nothing but pure Hitlerism:https://t.co/5DTy5XrFSL
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 28, 2024
Here’s the full text of Ponomarenko’s first tweet.
A very good illustration of today’s world and why things are so fucked up and only getting worse.
The Pope in Rome: Propagates ‘negotiations’ with the Kremlin over its war on Ukraine and ‘the courage of hoisting the white flag’.
Patriarch Kirill in Moscow: Propagades a ‘Sacred War on the Satanic West’, complete eradication of Ukraine, and the further territorial expansion of ‘the Russian world’.
More on the Crocus disco attack:
Budanov destroys pro-Kremlin conspiracy theorists regarding the Crocus City Hall attack: "Russia knew in advance about the preparation of a terrorist operation in the Moscow region, but allowed it either because of the “struggle of towers of influence” or the underestimation of… pic.twitter.com/8QMXyt8Zzd
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) March 28, 2024
Budanov destroys pro-Kremlin conspiracy theorists regarding the Crocus City Hall attack: “Russia knew in advance about the preparation of a terrorist operation in the Moscow region, but allowed it either because of the “struggle of towers of influence” or the underestimation of the scale of what could happen.”
He also adds he does not condone such terrorist attacks: ““Explanations from Patrushev and Bortnikov appeared, who accused me personally and that Ukraine did all this. This is nonsense. By the way, if we touched on this painful issue, even though this is the enemy, I do not approve in principle of terrorist acts against civilians.”
Read full on Pravda: https://pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2024/03/27/7448459/
From Ukrainska Pravda:
Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence has stated that Russia was aware of the impending terrorist operation near Moscow but allowed it to take place due to the “struggle of the towers of influence,” or a lack of understanding of the scope of the attack.
Source: Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (DIU), during a conversation at the Third International Forum on Strategic Communications, as reported by the press service of DIU
Quote: “At least since 15 February 2024, the Russian Federation has been aware of the preparations. I’ll tell you even more: this information was passed through the group’s intelligence agency in Syria. From there, it was passed on to Moscow. And don’t let them tell you that it miraculously appeared out of nowhere.
There are several possible explanations for why they let it happen. The first, as is customary in Russia, is a power struggle – removal of several high-ranking officials. Another option is that they may have underestimated the severity of the situation. They assumed it would be smaller in nature and wanted to blame Ukraine for everything.”
Details: Budanov stated that Russia knew where combat groups would come from and how they would transit two countries before arriving on Russian territory.
The general noted that the Kremlin has already changed three versions of what happened at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow Oblast, attempting to incorporate the so-called “Ukrainian trace” into the terrorist attack.
“There were explanations from Patrushev [Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation] and Bortnikov [Head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB)], who accused me personally and said that it was all done by Ukraine. This is nonsense. By the way, if we touch on this painful issue, even though it is the enemy, I do not approve in principle of terrorist acts against civilians,” Budanov said.
The Ukrainian intelligence chief added that Russia had sown chaos and was overconfident in its ability to control it.
Quote: “There is a known saying, even a parable of some sort. And it always applies in the case of secret services, where everyone is attempting to create controlled chaos. At various points in time, almost every serious organisation attempted to do this. And the axiom states that none of them could make it controllable. The same thing occurred here.”
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. So here’s some adjacent material.
I put a spell on you pic.twitter.com/cjLgwYwvU0
— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) March 25, 2024
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— UAnimals.ENG 🇺🇦 (@UAnimalsENG) March 27, 2024
What would you do with your million dollars? For us, the answer is crystal clear!💰💸 With countless animals in need, our mission is to alleviate their suffering in the war-torn regions of Ukraine. From life-saving evacuations to vital sterilization efforts, we’re on the front lines providing food and support to animals there 🐈
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This rescue mission happened thanks to your donations 😊🙏https://t.co/VI70deg9Za pic.twitter.com/8Q81aRvKZA— UAnimals.ENG 🇺🇦 (@UAnimalsENG) March 26, 2024
Open thread!
wombat probability cloud
Feels like Putin is tripling down on the strategy of hitting civilian targets, fearing that there’s only a limited number of months to go before TFG loses the election and–just maybe–the US finds its moral compass (and legislative power to back that up). It’s his ineffective go-to. And, before Poland and others (not under the auspices of NATO) finally say fuck this, we’ve had enough. That is to say, this smells of desperation and failure.
YY_Sima Qian
Yeah, nothing about Ukraine’s territorial integrity, or even reestablishing pre-Feb. 2022 LACs. It seems US planning was still driven by pre-war pessimism concerning Ukraine’s chances, & what was considered in the realm of possible was never updated.
How does Russian AD mistakenly shoot down one of their own fighters over Sevastopol?! The incompetence is incredible.
Carlo Graziani
No. (Eliding a stronger term here). This is just, and purely, a readout of your priors, which you resolutely decline to update.
“…empower Ukraine and give it the means to fight…” in no way implies the priorities that you impute to the administration here. And “…including to ensure that Ukraine emerged from the war as a democratic, independent, and sovereign state” actually directly contradicts those alleged priorities, since there is no way for a political outcome of this kind to reify, without an outcome of the war that Ukrainians agree amounts to a principled victory.
Sorry, but IMO you need to begin practicing better marking-to-market of your beliefs than you have been practicing to-date. In my opinion, I’ve been reading more dogma than actual political analysis here for quite a while, now. And this degrades the value of the otherwise excellent information that I still stop by nightly to collect.
Devore
maybe I’m missing something. But it seems like Ukraine needs lots more combat soldiers if they want to start taking back the stolen territory
and thanks Adam
wjca
What boggles my mind is that they apparently prefer to be seen as incompetent, rather than admit the Ukrainians shot their plane down. That’s can’t be good for the morale of the anti-aircraft crews.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
IFF as shown in many “modern” wars is not failsafe, and ruZZian IFF and Threat Receivers are notorious for being “buggy” and poorly maintained.
Both the Western and ruZZian doctrine is that you set up AD Zones and your pilots stay the hell away from them. We know that communication from the top down, bottom up and between branches of the ruZZian military at it’s best rating, is poor.
Depending on the radar/missile range, reaction time varies for the crews, from minutes, to seconds. Patriot’s racked up a fair number of Blue on Blue kills, and that’s with better IFF and professional well trained crews, not shoddy IFF and paniced conscripts.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30166
Jay
As always, thank you, Adam.
Lyrebird
If the Ukrainian government made “war bonds” could foreigners buy them?
And for a US national, would that constitute a foreign investment?
Obviously it’s not gonna solve everything, but I wondered.
Jay
@Devore:
there are a ton of things that Ukraine needs, not just manpower, to push the ruZZians back and reclaim territory, but the US and Germany, who have what Ukraine needs in spades, would rather the equipment rots in storage.
As has been pointed out many times, Ukraine could have driven the ruzzian’s back a long way in last years summer offensive, but the aid Ukraine got was both too little, and too late, allowing ruZZia the time to build massive and multiple defense lines, unmolested, guaranteeing, at best, a slow, miserable slog, but more likely, a stalemate and frozen conflict.
Jay
@Lyrebird:
War Bonds, are like any other bond. You buy them, they collect a small amount of interest, sometimes compounded, and at the end of the war or a fixed time period, you can cash them in.
You get more “bang for your buck” and provide better support to Ukraine, by just making a donation.
wjca
@Jay:
It seems wildly unlikely that our official position would be anything else. Even if we were privately encouraging such strikes, and even aiding and abetting them. Which makes the State Department’s statement less significant than it might appear.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: I don’t think Ukraine has SAMs w/ ranges to reach Sevastopol from Kherson.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Has the Ukrainian AF ever overflown Sevastopol? Given Ukrainian air attacks (outside of drones) has not been an established threat over Crimea, & a Ukrainian drone & a Su-27 should have very different radar signatures, I would think the Russian SAM batteries would double check before firing on a plane over Sevastopol.
Such friendly fire would not be surprising over the front lines.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: The point here, which you are missing, is an epistemiological one, about how one is supposed to use evidence to update priors. Bringing in additional “evidence” (from the Kyiv Post? Really?) does not bring relevant argument to the discussion.
To be explicit: it requires no effort of Adam to reiterate his “strategic malfeasance” claim against the administration, if all he has to do is cite any subject-adjacent opinion piece and assert that it supports his prior beliefs, irrespective of what that piece actually, textually, states. And, I assert, it diminishes the value of the service that he provides to us—which I rely on, over any other, on this subject that unites us in belief and purpose—to be this intellectually slack in processing what he nightly filters out for us.
So sue me, I’d like this thread to be what it was at its best. Which, in my opinion, was far better than it is now, and could be again.
Jay
@wjca:
Other than like Felon Must, both the Germans and the US have “geofenced” weapons delivery, by not providing Ukraine with weapons that can hit ruZZia or even Crimea, out of fear that this time, (unlike the other 82 times), they will cross one of Putin’s so called red lines.
When you are in the same club as Felon Musk, well,………..
Btw, Putti Poot recently said that NATO Airbases training Ukrainian Pilots on F-16’s are valid targets for missile strikes.
Chris
“You mean to tell me that U.S. policy in Ukraine is to keep walking Ukrainians into Russian machine gun fire until the Russians run out of bullets?”
“That’s Joe Biden’s strategy, that’s not U.S. strategy.”
“What is U.S. strategy?”
“Well, strictly speaking, we don’t have one, but we’re working hard on that.”
“Who’s we?”
“Me and three other guys.”
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Ukraine has hit Sevastopol multiple times with drones and cruise missiles.
Depending on the ruZZian system, all you get is a icon on the radar screen and a track, ideally with an IFF bounce back from your active radar, and an oscilloscope waveform if the “intruder” has their radar on.
If you have been informed of the flight path, the IFF is working, the radar waveform and pulse match “your” radar and the radar bounceback is in range for a Mig-29, (it’s been confirmed it wasn’t a Mig-35 or an Su), you hold fire.
If you are in a Osa, you have about 15 seconds to decide, if it is an incoming missile or your own outgoing aircraft.
Chris
@Carlo Graziani:
This isn’t a complicated question. If we wanted to give Ukraine the means to win, we’d have given Ukraine the means to win.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: A rump, landlocked Ukraine confined to the west of the Dnipro can still be “democratic, independent & sovereign state”, & even part of NATO/EU, particularly after long enough time passes. Plenty of precedents in history. (See Finland today w/o Karelia.) A diminished Ukraine based on the current lines of actual control can still be all of that, as well. That is just not something Ukrainians are willing to accept.
From a cynical self-interest perspective, neither the US nor the West at large have any obligation to help Ukraine restore all of its internationally recognized sovereign territory. Helping Ukraine enough to prevent a Russian victory but not necessarily a Ukrainian victory is defensible at a realpolitik level. However, if that is the limit to the depth of the US’ commitment to the Ukrainian cause, then it needs to be understood by Ukraine & the US’ allies & partners. The US should not create unrealistic expectations in Ukraine & elsewhere, as the US has so often done in the past to disastrous consequences. At least then Ukraine can make fully informed decisions as to how best to advance its interests. (No, I do not mean Ukraine should sue for peace w/ Putin under those circumstances, whose promises have no credibility.)
Treating Ukraine as a proxy & a tool to bleed Russia (even though Ukraine certainly does not see its struggle in such terms) is just a little too cynical to stomach. I am sure Biden or most of his top FP advisers does not seek Ukraine as such, but I have far less confidence about large parts of the bureaucracy & the think tank world. In any case, the consequence of the actions so far is trending toward that outcome.
Jay
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68685604
YY_Sima Qian
From Rob Lee on Twitter, video of the dangerous work through the link:
The munitions famine is clearly serious. If they are taking submunitions from shells to mount on the FPVs, then those shells are not being lobbed over the front lines.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
It’s worse than that. That’s an old Soviet era shell, (grey paint, rust, Cyrillic). The driving bands, (brass rings mid way and at the rear of the shell that engage with the rifleing) are damaged consistent with the shell having been fired, but was a dud when it impacted.
So that’s UXO.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Btw, those arn’t submunitions, they are the charges for the shell. They are packaged that way so the same explosive charge can be used in a variety of different sized munitions, easily handled, the shell has no bursting charge and the explosive charges have no dentonator.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Thanks for the explanation! Are you saying that they are removing the explosive charges from duds shells fired by Russia, & repurposing them as explosives for FPVs?
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Looks that way, maybe not for FPV’s, (bomber type), but suicide FPV’s.
The explosive packets are fairly stable, (thus the angle grinder), the tricky part is the detonator, often uses fulminate of mercury, which tends to go boom on impact or when crushed.
Something like 7/10 ruZZian shells don’t go boom, 9/10 for NORK shells, winter, spring and fall, when the ground is soft or pure mud.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Hey, that is actually a partial solution to the munitions famine, and poetic, too!
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Sadly, it’s a tiny drop in the bucket.
AlaskaReader
@YY_Sima Qian:
So you somehow believe the promises we and various NATO members made in1945, 1975 and in 1994 are meaningless and hollow, thereby enabling you to dismiss them out of hand?
I don’t look at it that way and neither should the Ukrainians.
We, (the US) and various NATO members absolutely bear an obligation to Ukraine regarding it’s sovereignty and to respect the independence and sovereignty of the existing borders of Ukraine.
(italics used to denote ‘existing borders’ includes Ukraine’s borders at the times previously mentioned, to include specifically, Crimea, along with Ukraine’s other territory of the time.)
(some links are PDFs)
Jay
@AlaskaReader:
Excellent points.
AlaskaReader
@Jay: Which points also make the Republican refusal to provide aid to Ukraine all the more disgusting and reprehensible.
I can’t understand why those points aren’t a starting basis of any public discussion of providing support for Ukraine.
Sadly, I see very little discussion in the public sphere about the history of our commitment to help Ukraine specifically, and more generally, to take a more proactive stance regarding Russia’s crimes of war and illegal invasions.
Jay
@AlaskaReader:
Yurp, me too.
I would like to see some Democratic Rep or Senator raise the Budapest Memorandum on the floor.
YY_Sima Qian
@AlaskaReader: Every single country in the world has been & will continue to be highly selective in the international obligations they choose to meet, & when. Would the world be a much better place if most countries would consistently meet their obligations under international treaties & agreements? Absolutely! However, that is not the world we live in, that is not how policymakers in most countries think (in spite of all the highfalutin rhetoric), & it is most certainly not the kind of world anyone is currently trying to build.
I for one wish that the US & the West would be far more proactive in providing the aid that Ukraine desperately needs, & that the “Straddlers” (the PRC, India, Türkiye, the Gulf States, rest of the Global South) would be far less eager to do business w/ Russia & be more alarmed by Russian activities to sow chaos around the world. However, countries acting out of perceived self-interest driven by cynical realpolitik & commercial profit, as opposed to obligations to treaties & norms, is pretty much par for the course, & that will not suddenly change. That is not typically seen as beyond the pale behavior by governing elites anywhere, at least not as a rule.
BTW, that is also why I think it was/is a mistake by the US & the EU/NATO to frame the War in Ukraine as a struggle between democracy & autocracy, as opposed to defense of the sanctity of sovereignty & territorial integrity. The former narrative can & did help unify the West, but causes an allergic reaction in the Global South (including democracies in the Global South) because they think the West has been blatantly & persistently hypocritical on this subject; I think the latter narrative has universal purchase, & puts more pressure on the “Straddlers” (all of whom are long time advocates for the sanctity of sovereignty & territorial integrity).
AlaskaReader
@Jay: Maybe the most unlikeliest of people have brought it up, …Ted Cruz and Chris Christie both,
…though I’m not clear exactly how they may have tried to also wield in some manner so as to be to their own benefit and I’m reluctant to want to review what context they may have tried to attach to while doing so.
I do though, think some good faith actors should be taking it up and holding those points up so the public can benefit from the historical perspective that seems lacking in the public discussion of aid for Ukraine.
AlaskaReader
@YY_Sima Qian: All of which boils down to an excuse for saying there is no obligation. Hell, a Republican could have come up with that kind of ‘splaining’ world events. (and to what or whose ends?)
So you either do or don’t think we have an obligation.
The obligation is clear. I hold we have an obligation.
How some things have played out over time in the past doesn’t alter whether we do or don’t have an obligation.
We are not bound by missteps in the past, or the bad faith actions of past administrations, we can and should start honoring the obligations we’ve made.
It’s as simple as that.
YY_Sima Qian
@AlaskaReader: I don’t disagree, but for that framework to have any credibility, it has to apply beyond Ukraine. Whether you or I think the obligation is there is far less important than if the policymaker believe such obligations apply generally, that is simply not the case.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Some good notes, thanks.
From the POV of a twitchy Russian air defense team, in that time window, are they entirely sure that it is not a F-35 on a SEAD mission, that the rumors that they have heard are false, that a HARM won’t soon end (or disrupt) their life? Bragging rights if they shoot down a (yet to be deployed) F-16, and punishment if they do not at least attempt to shoot down a cruise missile.
Twitchy Russian air defenses attempting to intercept cruise missiles and drones are putting largish-numbers of seekers-of-flying-machines into the air, and part of the broad Russian command-level AD calculation is that the Russian IFF works and does not often fail (for, uhm, any reasons), at least at the shitty baseline level. As you note, Western methods are a bit different.
AlaskaReader
@YY_Sima Qian: Of a certainty that ‘framework’ would have to extend beyond just Ukraine.
I happen to believe the promises we break with indigenous people in our own country ought be honored, that servicemen and women should benefit from the promises given them. So yeah, I’d absolutely extend that honor to those who should be due that honor, ie anyone we make promises to, within our country and without..
Despite how some would have it, honor doesn’t mean you ignore the promises you make. That’s Trumpism.
As far as the actions of the policymakers, if this country is to fulfill the role we’ve set for ourselves, it remains the citizen’s responsibility to turn out those policymakers if they won’t produce the honorable policy decisions we expect of them.
Our country can’t set the example, or fill the role we’ve set for ourselves, by electing the like’s of liars and cheats.
Ultimately, that responsibility does fall back on us. It’s up to us to stop the double dealing and dishonorable actions of the policymakers.
I’m frankly sick of seeing honor and integrity shoved aside so that nefarious interests can be served. It’s my hope my fellow citizens will wake up and also demand accountability from any policymakers who won’t act in good faith.