We know what “they doin ova der,” they’re making things worse.

I’m going to try to keep this brief tonight, but we have a lot to cover and a significant chunk is the GOP majority in the House of Representatives is eating itself.

https://twitter.com/NewsHour/status/1780007475401351241

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1780036799248634107

From Axios:

House Democrats were incensed at the Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan aid plan House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rolled out on Monday — but they are not ruling out saving it if necessary.

Why it matters: Several Republican hardliners who are opposed to Ukraine aid and irked by a lack of border security language have not ruled out sabotaging a key procedural vote that typically passes along party lines.

• “I have a hard time believing we’re going to give something to Ukraine without doing our border,” said Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.).
• Some are also perturbed about the process: Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) said it is “a process to a predetermined outcome … designed to appear open.”
• “I think it’s going to take Democrats to pass the rule,” one House Democrat told Axios.

Driving the news: The House is expected to hold four separate votes, including on aid packages for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

What they’re saying: The predominant reaction of Democrats on Monday was irritation that Johnson is not simply holding a vote on the Senate bill.

• “We have delayed this now for months, because this party is so dysfunctional … they’re constantly trying to pander to every faction,” former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told Axios.
• Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said “like everything these guys do, it’s an exercise in improvisation … it just speaks to the recklessness and cluelessness of this Republican majority.”
• “They just can’t bring themselves to do the right thing, the obvious thing, put the damn Senate bill on the floor,” Huffman added.

Yes, but: Several moderate and swing-district Democrats signaled that they would be open to voting for the rule through gritted teeth if necessary.

• “This is one of the most critical votes that we’ll take, so I’m very open to whatever it takes to get this done,” said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).
• Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) told Axios: “Republicans have played politics with this … for six months. I would hope that my colleagues don’t play politics with it either.”

• “Look, I mean, the people back home, they want bipartisanship and I want to give it to them,” said Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.).

Between the lines: “It is a desperate situation in Ukraine, and Democrats are very driven to get aid to Ukraine at this point,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.).

What to watch: Some Democrats said their votes would likely depend on the inclusion of humanitarian aid in the bill.

• Hoyer said excising that funding would be “irresponsible” and “inimical to the interests of the United States.”
• “It’s very hard for me to vote for a rule under any circumstances, but to vote for a rule … without the humanitarian issues, that’s going to be very hard,” said Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.).

More at the link!

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1780235552643551649

This means — after Gallagher resigns — Johnson would almost certainly need Democrats to save his job if the motion to oust him comes up for a vote.

Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz says he would save Mike Johnson’s job if MTG brings motion to oust him.

Others like Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi also said they would vote to save Johnson

“Democrats don’t even let her rename post offices, I’m not gonna let her make a motion to vacate,” Moskowitz told me

That’s funny because it’s true!

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1780308627674267890

Oy vey!

Members of the GOP House majority are using this mess of their own making to advance their own ambitions for power:

https://twitter.com/MZanona/status/1780365054698811633

NEW: House Republicans are privately questioning Johnson’s long-term political future — and some are quietly positioning themselves for possible leadership shakeup further down the line.

Emmer’s moves being watched closely. He’s repaired relationship w/ Trump & attended roundtable with Trump ahead of PA rally. Some allies also trying to gauge his standing in GOP, tho Emmer not involved and is fully behind Johnson.

new details w/ @AnnieGrayerCNN & @mkraju

https://cnn.com/2024/04/16/politics/mike-johnson-revolt-house-gop-leadership

Because of course they are!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Ukraine Will Request a Meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council – Address of the President of Ukraine

16 April 2024 – 20:03

Dear Ukrainians!

The key points of the day.

First, the Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and the Defense Minister Umerov delivered a report. It was about the situation at our frontline and our defensive actions. The task is obvious: to maximize the deterrence of Russian assaults and to repel every attack of the occupier.

Second, the heads of the Special Services, including the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, reported on countering internal threats, and, of course, on the efforts of the personnel to defend Ukraine against the occupier. Right now, we can see that Ukrainian Special Services are very effective in eliminating the enemy. Today I would like to mention the results of the soldiers of the Centre of Special Operations “A” of the Security Service of Ukraine. They effectively destroy Russian surface-to-air missile systems. Thank you! I would also like to mention the officers of the SSU’s 13th Main Directorate of the Military Counterintelligence Department, who are doing everything to suppress Russia’s ability to terrorize Ukraine. They are destroying Russian radar stations, which were used, in particular, for Russian aviation and guided bombing. We will destroy absolutely everything that harms Ukraine. And I thank each and every one of our soldiers, the Security Service of Ukraine, all the special services and units that are doing their best to protect our country and our people.

Third. I held a preparatory meeting with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, the representatives of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, and the Office. We are currently preparing an agenda for the National Security and Defense Council to discuss the threats to the security of our state and society posed by the proliferation of online casinos and the lack of control over this area. All opportunities in this area to manipulate people and harm the interests of society must and will be blocked. It is also important to mention the author of the relevant petition, the petition to restrict online casinos, which started the discussion today. It was a Ukrainian soldier, Junior Sergeant Pavlo Petrychenko, a soldier of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade. Yesterday, he was killed in a battle. My condolences to Pavlo’s family and friends. The existence of our entire Ukraine is made up of the lives and aspirations, the will and achievements of such men and women. Many of those who could not and do not imagine Ukraine apart from their own actions to protect it, to develop it, to strengthen it. We all should remember that Ukraine is made up of people who care, who really care, about what will happen to Ukraine. We must always remember every such person, always support them, and do whatever we can to ensure that our country withstands the invader and protects its people, its land, and its independence. I am confident that it will.

And one more thing. We work every day without a single break to increase our potential in the world — in our relations with partners. We work to get more real help. To achieve true equality in the defense against terror, when the same, truly equal rules apply to us here in Ukraine, in Europe, and in other parts of the world, when we face the same manifestations of terror, the same missile and drone attacks. In the last two days we have heard all kinds of things. About different conflicts — here in Europe and in the Middle East — different levels of threats, different airspace. Although the “Shahed” drones and ballistics are the same… Different threats of escalation. But are human lives different, are people’s values different? No, they are not. We value every life equally. We must do so. We must protect them from terror on the same level. Ukraine will request a meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council to discuss the protection of the skies, the supply of anti-aircraft warfare, relevant systems and missiles. We are actively working now to ensure a productive first Global Peace Summit in June. We thank all the leaders and states that have expressed this week their willingness to participate in the Summit in Switzerland. I would like to express my special gratitude for the efforts of Olaf, Mr. Chancellor, for his leadership and relevant international communication — for the signals we have heard from Beijing. China can really help us restore the just peace for Ukraine and the stability in international relations. The Summit in Switzerland gives us all a real chance to make the Charter of the United Nations, its goals and principles, really work.

I thank everyone who helps! I thank each and every one of you who defends our country, our people and the common justice that is equal for all nations! And may the memory of all Ukrainians who gave their lives for Ukraine be eternal and bright!

Glory to Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1780244515795640775

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1780182315894804727

The West is afraid of Russia’s defeat in Ukraine due to the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation and strengthening of China, which will seize part of the Russian Federation’s territories – President Zelensky in an interview with PBS.

“There are voices coming from the West saying that we are afraid. What’s going to happen to Russia if Russia loses? So, are they not afraid that we are dying here every day? But they’re very afraid that there will be some sort of a danger, some sort of a migration crisis? What’s going to happen? Maybe China will be very strong. And if Russia will panic and have a revolution, then China will capture part of the territory of Russia, et cetera. So everyone is afraid. God forbid China will be strong. God forbid there would be no Putin and there will be many countries (on the territory of the Russian Federation – Ed.). What’s going to happen to Russia’s nuclear weapons? What will happen to Russia’s nuclear weapons?”, Zelenskyy asked.

Here’s the full video of President Zelenskyy’s interview with PBS’s Newshour:

The cost:

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1780235522608071099

The differences between how Israel is protected by the US and its allies and partners – both NATO and non-NATO – and how Ukraine is being given voice by the Ukrainians:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1780192769853542719

Of course, Western militaries will never be protecting Ukrainian skies from drones and missiles as they do with Israel.

Because that is Iran, and this is Russia, and this world is neither fair nor supposed to univocally stand for the good and combat the evil.

Of course, London, Paris, Warsaw, or Washington D.C. will never be willing to be directly involved in repelling Russian aggression in Ukraine – because it’s not Quaddafi, not al-Assad, or ISIS affiliates in Africa, or the Taliban.

That’s why we have always been saying that providing the Ukrainian military with all necessary aid is a win-win strategy – we get to save our country from extermination, you get to deter and curtail the world’s biggest war at the moment with not a single European or American serviceperson involved in hostilities.

Moreover, helping Ukraine defeat the Kremlin’s killing spree was applicably reducing the likelihood of the West’s unwanted direct military intervention – which is just what Western leaders and Western public opinion quite expectedly want.

But you know, surprisingly enough, two years of escalation management, trying to ‘save Putin’s face,’ procrastination, and petty politics gave Putin 2 years to recover and prepare for a large-scale, prolonged war of territorial grabs he has zero reasons to stop.

Moreover, given what’s happening now to the West in general, the Kremlin is now as confident and encouraged to do whatever the hell it wants ® to Ukraine and beyond.

Putin is more than happy to have this war by his rules, under which Russia is fully entitled to any sort of atrocities and massive war crimes against Ukraine, and Ukraine must somehow watch out for Russia’s precious oil production – otherwise, Russians will throw a nuclear escalation tantrum into Jake Sullivan’s phone.

He is more than happy to see the West restricting itself to absurdity in the light of the biggest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler. Why not take more, and more, and more, and more, if the West seems to be ready to give up everything at any price?

I honestly don’t know how myopic one needs to be to fail to see that these two years of half-measures and appeasement only made things worse and only made a direct NATO-Russia clash more probable.

See, Vladimir Putin doesn’t care how good-intended, pro-peace, and anti-war you are. He sees weakness, he sees an invitation for more aggression, he sees an easy way to get ‘yet another grand geopolitical victory’ with no consequences.

The only realistic way to stop him in Ukraine is to provide Ukraine with arms to overwhelm this increasingly hungry monster and bring peace back to us all.

And don’t get me started on how Ukraine should ‘stand on its own’ and ‘stop begging for aid’ – I’d love to see a list of nations that would be able to wage a years-long, full-scale, high-intensity war against an adversary as gargantuan as Russia and with no allies or backers.

This war can still end with the free world’s victory in Ukraine and without Putin’s bloodlust spilling out into the Baltic nations, Moldova, Scandinavia, Poland etc.

There’s still time and a chance, even though a lot has been stupidly lost.

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Everyone’s favorite think tank Russia SME and a Hopkins-SAIS Kissinger Center distinguished professor had an essay published in Foreign Affairs today. Some of it is interesting, all of it is incredibly credulous. It was not met with a lot of acclaim.

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1780112931264282754

While Ukraine is not getting basic aid necessary for our survival, you all of a sudden recalled an important topic to research into, that “putin was surprisingly ready for serious concessions and may be again”. Surely, with the russian war machine in full mode, with 550 B $ oil and gas profits, Iranian, North Korean and Chinese help.

Also, Charap can very be proud of his previous wise and strategic analysis, too: we’re experiencing just now how Western weapons aren’t making any difference in Ukraine. Every night, seeing how lack of air defenses impact our economy, energy system, and our lives.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1780158691892773294

There’s nothing ‘complicated’ about this lost paradise of the ‘Istanbul deal that could have ended the war’ – the Kremlin was never even closely serious about those ‘contacts’ with Ukraine, and it was forwarding knowingly unacceptable and absurd demands while regrouping for a new offensive in Donbas following the March setback at Kyiv.

The problem is that certain high-browed armchair strategists somehow persuaded themselves that Putin was a good-faith dove of peace offering a perfect deal he’d respect forevermore, while those dumb, mean Ukrainians rejected his noble gesture because Boris Johnson made them do so.

https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1780130327228227993

Daniel Szeligowski, the Head of Research Programme and Senior Research Fellow on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs had a long, detailed, very interesting assessment that picked most of Charap’s and Radchenko’s essay apart, while also breaking some new information. Here it is from the Thread Reader App:

🧵 This is already making rounds, so I will try to shed some more light on March/April 2022 Ukraine-Russia talks since the article is still far from the point, and because Poland played a much bigger role than anyone is willing to admit publicly

The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in UkraineA hidden history of diplomacy that came up short—but holds lessons for future negotiations.https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-could-have-ended-war-ukraine

You can easily Google this photo. This is just a tip of the iceberg

And you can easily Google this photo as well. Resemblance is purely coincidental (until it is not)

Charap & Radchenko rely heavily on the *Western* sources, but these were interesting times when our Western colleagues found themselves not being really in the loop, although they happily provide you with some post-factum interpretation today 

We were never close to any deal. Russia never negotiated in good faith. Moscow sent a delegation that was composed of the most anti-Ukrainian officials you can imagine. Their goal was to present the Ukrainian side with an ultimatum, not to *negotiate*

During the talks, the Russian officials issued threats against members of the Ukrainian delegation and their families. This pretty tells you what the Russian attitude was at that particular time 

While still in Belarus, the Russian delegation openly suggested to the Ukrainian delegation that they declare capitulation. Ukrainians responded with a now legendary sentence: иди на хуй (roughly: f* off) 

The talks moved to Turkey then. On the plane, members of the Ukrainian delegation had symptoms of poisoning. Later on, test results proved an unknown chemical substance in the body of now Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov. Russians “sent a message” – we can get you 

Russia never abandoned its maximalist goal. Realising that the plan to seize Kyiv “in three days” had failed, Moscow wanted to subjugate Ukraine at the negotiating table, but missed the moment when the fortune turned in favour of Ukraine and they were thrown out from Kyiv region 

Unlike our Western colleagues, Poland believed from the beginning that the Russians were bluffing and so we advised accordingly our Ukrainian friends. We were in a pretty comfortable position to do it, since Polish SOF provided security for the Ukrainian delegation 

Yes, Ukraine was ready to make concessions, but they were conditional on western security guarantees, which the West was ultimately not ready to give (one reason was that our western colleagues simply did not know much about the talks as such) 

The talks collapsed because the Russians never negotiated seriously, and so they did not show due flexibility (contrary to what Charap and Radchenko claim). Russia demanded Ukraine’s demilitarisation and aimed at sanctioning of Russian influence over Ukrainian domestic 

And then Bucha came. The scale of Russian crimes was so huge that it shocked even the Polish side (which, after all, has experienced Russian atrocities itself). Further talks with Russia were simply no-go for Zelensky, especially that Russian troops were already on defensive 

Ever since, Russians have argued that an agreement with Ukraine was close, but the West intervened, notably Boris Johnson, whom Russia accused of forcing Ukraine to abandon the negotiations 

This bears no relation to reality, of course, but somehow still resonates with many of the Western decision-makers and their pundits. But Velina puts nicely what I think of that as well:

If you wanna know *a bit* more, please read this article, published by an authoritative Polish media outlet. Yep, it’s in Polish, but Google Translate or AI would do the job these days

Komandosi na Białorusi i delikatna misja w Turcji. Kulisy polskich operacji podczas wojny na Ukrainie [OPINIA]Żołnierze z polskich oddziałów specjalnych ochraniali oligarchę Romana Abramowicza, który był pośrednikiem w rozmowach ukraińsko-rosyjskich w pierwszych tygodniach wojny. Zapewniali również bezpieczeń…https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/8680269,zolnierze-polskie-oddzialy-specjalne-wojna-w-ukrainie-komandosi.html

I admit that Charap & Radchenko did a good job, this is possibly the best article on Ukraine-Russia talks I have ever read. The problem is that the point of reference is so lame. And that’s why even a good text doesn’t reflect half of what really happened these days of 2022 

On a last note – the flawed theory that Ukraine-Russia deal was reportedly almost there has been and will be used in the public debate to share the narrative that Ukraine should accept the Russian demands (since it reportedly accepted them in 2022, which, again, was *not* true) 

I don’t think that Charap and Radchenko deliberately omitted Poland and the Polish sources. I guess they have simply been unaware of the role that Poland played in the whole story. Western experts often think that Central Europe has no agency, but sometimes we prove them wrong :) 

So we now know that Polish SOF were providing the personal security detail (PSD) for the Ukrainian negotiators. We also now have independent confirmation that the Russians had actually poisoned members of the Ukrainian delegation, which we covered at the time back in 2o22. Szeligowski is far more generous that I am towards Charap and Radchenko by giving them the benefit of the doubt that they are making a good faith effort with this essay. You can read the whole thing if you like, but if you’ve been reading along her since the first war update, you already know the history, so what you’re reading for would be the author’s interpretation of events from a selective reading of selective documentation. The naivete to believe after Grozny and Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, and eastern Moldova now doing business as Transnistria that anyone believes Putin and his diplomatic and national security teams are good faith negotiators is just astoundingly naive.

More interesting and informative, is this Economist interview with Ukraine’s new national security chief.

NOT MANY non-Russians know Russia as well as Oleksandr Lytvynenko. Ukraine’s new national security chief spent five formative years in Moscow as a cryptology cadet at the elite KGB Academy. More recently, as head of Ukraine’s foreign-intelligence service during two years of war, he busied himself undermining and extracting information from his one-time peers. At the end of March, he took over one of the country’s most critical jobs.

So Mr Lytvynenko deserves to be listened to. And he has a warning for those Western politicians (Donald Trump being the most notorious example) thinking about pushing a premature peace deal on Ukraine which would require it to give up territory. “Putin has lied, is lying, and will continue to lie.” Ceding territory to Russia in return for peace would be a “cruel betrayal” of the Ukrainians left under violent occupation, he says. Many more innocent people would be killed, more would be thrown into cellars.

But there is a more pragmatic reason to reject it, too. An agreement made with a compulsive liar probably means only one thing: him regrouping, rearming and trying for more in two or three years. Russia’s leader is “addicted” to the idea of conquering Ukraine, Mr Lytvynenko says. “The next time he won’t make mistakes, but will prepare his operation much more carefully, according to all the laws of military art.”

Things were not supposed to have turned out like this for Russia, of course. Ukraine was not expected to put up a fight. Russian soldiers were supposed to be parading in Kyiv within days of the invasion. With his “blitzkrieg”, Mr Putin’s aim was to present the West with a fait accompli, Mr Lytvynenko argues. “He wanted to say: Ukraine’s over, guys, now let’s talk on my terms.” Ukraine’s heroism foiled that plan. It also fundamentally changed the negotiation. “Now a victory over the West can only come if Putin first has victory in Ukraine. In Russians’ minds, victory in Ukraine means victory over the United States.”

Has the message got through to those who need to hear it? Mr Lytvynenko heaves a sigh, and delivers a politician’s line, stressing Ukraine’s “critical partnership with the American state…regardless of who is in power.” This week, Congress might finally begin the task of signing off on much-needed military assistance. But even if it does, the emphasis is on giving Ukraine just enough to stay in the game, rather than the tools to secure a victory. And all this is before a possible Trump presidency, which could make things much more precarious.

Mr Lytvynenko is a close observer of American politics, and says he understands the extent to which the administration is worried about escalation and the global implications of war in Ukraine. But he says a Ukrainian victory would reduce, not increase, the risk of confrontation. “Leaders would become risk-averse.” A Ukrainian defeat, on the other hand, would be interpreted as proof that invasions work, with domino-like consequences in China, Taiwan, and beyond. “If aggression works once, everyone will think about having a go. Too many people are watching this war too intently.”

The security chief says Mr Putin has not yet stepped back from his maximalist aims, namely “to destroy the Ukrainian state and turn it into a buffer zone”. The Russian Orthodox church’s recent declaration of “sacred war” against Ukraine only underlines that determination. That announcement, undoubtedly made with the Kremlin’s blessing, was an “attempt to untie Putin’s hands”, and sanction harsh new campaigns against civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Odessa, Zaporizhia and beyond. The newly fanatical rhetoric is “something best compared to Islamic State”, the official continues: “It’s crucial to understand that Putinism has not yet completed its evolution. It could get even worse. If the West does not stop this, it will end up paying more later, and with its own lives. Assisting Ukraine isn’t about charity.”

After hopes for a breakthrough faded in 2023, momentum on the battlefield has shifted decisively against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin and his militarised economy have now geared up for a long war, and the West is so far unwilling to unequivocally challenge him. Front-line positions are under constant threat, with Russian guns firing at six times the rate of the Ukrainians’, and planes taking advantage of patchy air defences to launch more and more guided aerial bombs. The situation has become “very tough”, Mr Lytvynenko says. “Russians don’t care about their losses and it makes the situation even more difficult.”  When asked how Ukraine might begin to get to a winning position again, the official is non-committal. It is not clear if Mr Putin could ever stop attacking Ukraine, he says, but Ukraine has to adopt a military strategy that tries to force him to.

Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1780309793640431965

Russia’s occupying forces in Bakhmut just published on one of their Telegram channels new video footage and photos of the eastern Ukrainian city almost a year after it was destroyed and captured. The photos are stomach-churning and I admit they fill me with rage. I’ll post them below beside my own photos from when I lived in Bakhmut in 2010-2012, when it was a vibrant, peaceful city that 80,000 called home.

These images show the central square fountain and city hall — or where city hall stood before it was blown up. The first two were taken under Russian occupation. The other two are mine from 14 years ago.

More in the thread at the link!

Krasnohorivka:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1780267484542640137

Not near Krasnohorivka, but an advance IN Krasnohorivka. This video was easy to geolocate because of the slag heap and lakes and knowing the area well: the Russian armor moves NW into southern district (south side of the railway) of the city and along Zaliznychna Street. No doubt this mechanized attack and others like it are possible right now because of Ukraine’s shortage of artillery shells, due to Republicans’ blocking the military aid bill in Congress.

Chasiv Yar:

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1780225392604750016

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here’s some adjacent material.

This is muffin, she’s not back with Eugene Kibets after getting emergency treatment for a kidney ailment.

https://twitter.com/eugenehmg/status/1780186090244116898

https://twitter.com/LorenzoTheCat/status/1780194665272152308

Open thread!