We know what “they doin ova der,” they’re making things worse.
I’m going to try to keep this brief tonight, but we have a lot to cover and a significant chunk is the GOP majority in the House of Representatives is eating itself.
Ukraine has "no chance of winning" its war with Russia, if it doesn't receive additional aid from the United States, Ukrainian President @ZelenskyyUa tells @IAmAmnaNawaz. pic.twitter.com/Bb5XgXto9K
— PBS NewsHour (@NewsHour) April 15, 2024
New:
– Dems furious Johnson isn’t putting the Senate bill on the floor
– Some not ruling out voting for the rule if needed
– Inclusion of humanitarian aid $ could be pivotal for many Dem votes
– Leadership keeping their powder dry@Axios https://t.co/BZiJ0tR14e— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) April 16, 2024
From Axios:
House Democrats were incensed at the Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan aid plan House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rolled out on Monday — but they are not ruling out saving it if necessary.
Why it matters: Several Republican hardliners who are opposed to Ukraine aid and irked by a lack of border security language have not ruled out sabotaging a key procedural vote that typically passes along party lines.
- “I have a hard time believing we’re going to give something to Ukraine without doing our border,” said Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.).
- Some are also perturbed about the process: Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) said it is “a process to a predetermined outcome … designed to appear open.”
- “I think it’s going to take Democrats to pass the rule,” one House Democrat told Axios.
Driving the news: The House is expected to hold four separate votes, including on aid packages for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
What they’re saying: The predominant reaction of Democrats on Monday was irritation that Johnson is not simply holding a vote on the Senate bill.
- “We have delayed this now for months, because this party is so dysfunctional … they’re constantly trying to pander to every faction,” former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told Axios.
- Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said “like everything these guys do, it’s an exercise in improvisation … it just speaks to the recklessness and cluelessness of this Republican majority.”
- “They just can’t bring themselves to do the right thing, the obvious thing, put the damn Senate bill on the floor,” Huffman added.
Yes, but: Several moderate and swing-district Democrats signaled that they would be open to voting for the rule through gritted teeth if necessary.
- “This is one of the most critical votes that we’ll take, so I’m very open to whatever it takes to get this done,” said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).
- Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) told Axios: “Republicans have played politics with this … for six months. I would hope that my colleagues don’t play politics with it either.”
- “Look, I mean, the people back home, they want bipartisanship and I want to give it to them,” said Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.).
Between the lines: “It is a desperate situation in Ukraine, and Democrats are very driven to get aid to Ukraine at this point,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.).
What to watch: Some Democrats said their votes would likely depend on the inclusion of humanitarian aid in the bill.
- Hoyer said excising that funding would be “irresponsible” and “inimical to the interests of the United States.”
- “It’s very hard for me to vote for a rule under any circumstances, but to vote for a rule … without the humanitarian issues, that’s going to be very hard,” said Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.).
More at the link!
This means — after Gallagher resigns — Johnson would almost certainly need Democrats to save his job if the motion to oust him comes up for a vote.
Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz says he would save Mike Johnson’s job if MTG brings motion to oust him.
Others like Democratic… https://t.co/aRDZEOjGKy
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) April 16, 2024
This means — after Gallagher resigns — Johnson would almost certainly need Democrats to save his job if the motion to oust him comes up for a vote.
Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz says he would save Mike Johnson’s job if MTG brings motion to oust him.
Others like Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi also said they would vote to save Johnson
“Democrats don’t even let her rename post offices, I’m not gonna let her make a motion to vacate,” Moskowitz told me
That’s funny because it’s true!
Beyond EPIC pic.twitter.com/BRAMt830x2
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 16, 2024
Oy vey!
Members of the GOP House majority are using this mess of their own making to advance their own ambitions for power:
NEW: House Republicans are privately questioning Johnson's long-term political future — and some are quietly positioning themselves for possible leadership shakeup further down the line.
Emmer's moves being watched closely. He's repaired relationship w/ Trump & attended…
— Melanie Zanona (@MZanona) April 16, 2024
NEW: House Republicans are privately questioning Johnson’s long-term political future — and some are quietly positioning themselves for possible leadership shakeup further down the line.
Emmer’s moves being watched closely. He’s repaired relationship w/ Trump & attended roundtable with Trump ahead of PA rally. Some allies also trying to gauge his standing in GOP, tho Emmer not involved and is fully behind Johnson.
new details w/ @AnnieGrayerCNN & @mkraju
https://cnn.com/2024/04/16/politics/mike-johnson-revolt-house-gop-leadership
Because of course they are!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukraine Will Request a Meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council – Address of the President of Ukraine
16 April 2024 – 20:03
Dear Ukrainians!
The key points of the day.
First, the Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and the Defense Minister Umerov delivered a report. It was about the situation at our frontline and our defensive actions. The task is obvious: to maximize the deterrence of Russian assaults and to repel every attack of the occupier.
Second, the heads of the Special Services, including the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, reported on countering internal threats, and, of course, on the efforts of the personnel to defend Ukraine against the occupier. Right now, we can see that Ukrainian Special Services are very effective in eliminating the enemy. Today I would like to mention the results of the soldiers of the Centre of Special Operations “A” of the Security Service of Ukraine. They effectively destroy Russian surface-to-air missile systems. Thank you! I would also like to mention the officers of the SSU’s 13th Main Directorate of the Military Counterintelligence Department, who are doing everything to suppress Russia’s ability to terrorize Ukraine. They are destroying Russian radar stations, which were used, in particular, for Russian aviation and guided bombing. We will destroy absolutely everything that harms Ukraine. And I thank each and every one of our soldiers, the Security Service of Ukraine, all the special services and units that are doing their best to protect our country and our people.
Third. I held a preparatory meeting with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, the representatives of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, and the Office. We are currently preparing an agenda for the National Security and Defense Council to discuss the threats to the security of our state and society posed by the proliferation of online casinos and the lack of control over this area. All opportunities in this area to manipulate people and harm the interests of society must and will be blocked. It is also important to mention the author of the relevant petition, the petition to restrict online casinos, which started the discussion today. It was a Ukrainian soldier, Junior Sergeant Pavlo Petrychenko, a soldier of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade. Yesterday, he was killed in a battle. My condolences to Pavlo’s family and friends. The existence of our entire Ukraine is made up of the lives and aspirations, the will and achievements of such men and women. Many of those who could not and do not imagine Ukraine apart from their own actions to protect it, to develop it, to strengthen it. We all should remember that Ukraine is made up of people who care, who really care, about what will happen to Ukraine. We must always remember every such person, always support them, and do whatever we can to ensure that our country withstands the invader and protects its people, its land, and its independence. I am confident that it will.
And one more thing. We work every day without a single break to increase our potential in the world — in our relations with partners. We work to get more real help. To achieve true equality in the defense against terror, when the same, truly equal rules apply to us here in Ukraine, in Europe, and in other parts of the world, when we face the same manifestations of terror, the same missile and drone attacks. In the last two days we have heard all kinds of things. About different conflicts — here in Europe and in the Middle East — different levels of threats, different airspace. Although the “Shahed” drones and ballistics are the same… Different threats of escalation. But are human lives different, are people’s values different? No, they are not. We value every life equally. We must do so. We must protect them from terror on the same level. Ukraine will request a meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council to discuss the protection of the skies, the supply of anti-aircraft warfare, relevant systems and missiles. We are actively working now to ensure a productive first Global Peace Summit in June. We thank all the leaders and states that have expressed this week their willingness to participate in the Summit in Switzerland. I would like to express my special gratitude for the efforts of Olaf, Mr. Chancellor, for his leadership and relevant international communication — for the signals we have heard from Beijing. China can really help us restore the just peace for Ukraine and the stability in international relations. The Summit in Switzerland gives us all a real chance to make the Charter of the United Nations, its goals and principles, really work.
I thank everyone who helps! I thank each and every one of you who defends our country, our people and the common justice that is equal for all nations! And may the memory of all Ukrainians who gave their lives for Ukraine be eternal and bright!
Glory to Ukraine!
Russia launched eleven missiles at Trypilska power plant, that supplies Kyiv with electricity. The first seven, we took down. Four destroyed Trypilska. Why? Because we had zero missiles. We ran out of all missiles. — Zelensky for PBS pic.twitter.com/mJlHr2LNYR
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 16, 2024
The West is afraid of Russia's defeat in Ukraine due to the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation and strengthening of China, which will seize part of the Russian Federation's territories – President Zelensky in an interview with PBS.
"There are voices coming from the West… pic.twitter.com/F25lfN4LwW
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 16, 2024
The West is afraid of Russia’s defeat in Ukraine due to the threat of nuclear weapons proliferation and strengthening of China, which will seize part of the Russian Federation’s territories – President Zelensky in an interview with PBS.
“There are voices coming from the West saying that we are afraid. What’s going to happen to Russia if Russia loses? So, are they not afraid that we are dying here every day? But they’re very afraid that there will be some sort of a danger, some sort of a migration crisis? What’s going to happen? Maybe China will be very strong. And if Russia will panic and have a revolution, then China will capture part of the territory of Russia, et cetera. So everyone is afraid. God forbid China will be strong. God forbid there would be no Putin and there will be many countries (on the territory of the Russian Federation – Ed.). What’s going to happen to Russia’s nuclear weapons? What will happen to Russia’s nuclear weapons?”, Zelenskyy asked.
Here’s the full video of President Zelenskyy’s interview with PBS’s Newshour:
The cost:
"The first dawn of 2023" by the fallen warrior Pavlo Petrychenko, killed in action a few hours before his birthday. I genuinely don't understand why my nation has to endure all this pain, terror and injustice pic.twitter.com/lnyC0C0NZP
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 16, 2024
The differences between how Israel is protected by the US and its allies and partners – both NATO and non-NATO – and how Ukraine is being given voice by the Ukrainians:
Of course, Western militaries will never be protecting Ukrainian skies from drones and missiles as they do with Israel.
Because that is Iran, and this is Russia, and this world is neither fair nor supposed to univocally stand for the good and combat the evil.
Of course,…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 16, 2024
Of course, Western militaries will never be protecting Ukrainian skies from drones and missiles as they do with Israel.
Because that is Iran, and this is Russia, and this world is neither fair nor supposed to univocally stand for the good and combat the evil.
Of course, London, Paris, Warsaw, or Washington D.C. will never be willing to be directly involved in repelling Russian aggression in Ukraine – because it’s not Quaddafi, not al-Assad, or ISIS affiliates in Africa, or the Taliban.
That’s why we have always been saying that providing the Ukrainian military with all necessary aid is a win-win strategy – we get to save our country from extermination, you get to deter and curtail the world’s biggest war at the moment with not a single European or American serviceperson involved in hostilities.
Moreover, helping Ukraine defeat the Kremlin’s killing spree was applicably reducing the likelihood of the West’s unwanted direct military intervention – which is just what Western leaders and Western public opinion quite expectedly want.
But you know, surprisingly enough, two years of escalation management, trying to ‘save Putin’s face,’ procrastination, and petty politics gave Putin 2 years to recover and prepare for a large-scale, prolonged war of territorial grabs he has zero reasons to stop.
Moreover, given what’s happening now to the West in general, the Kremlin is now as confident and encouraged to do whatever the hell it wants ® to Ukraine and beyond.
Putin is more than happy to have this war by his rules, under which Russia is fully entitled to any sort of atrocities and massive war crimes against Ukraine, and Ukraine must somehow watch out for Russia’s precious oil production – otherwise, Russians will throw a nuclear escalation tantrum into Jake Sullivan’s phone.
He is more than happy to see the West restricting itself to absurdity in the light of the biggest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler. Why not take more, and more, and more, and more, if the West seems to be ready to give up everything at any price?
I honestly don’t know how myopic one needs to be to fail to see that these two years of half-measures and appeasement only made things worse and only made a direct NATO-Russia clash more probable.
See, Vladimir Putin doesn’t care how good-intended, pro-peace, and anti-war you are. He sees weakness, he sees an invitation for more aggression, he sees an easy way to get ‘yet another grand geopolitical victory’ with no consequences.
The only realistic way to stop him in Ukraine is to provide Ukraine with arms to overwhelm this increasingly hungry monster and bring peace back to us all.
And don’t get me started on how Ukraine should ‘stand on its own’ and ‘stop begging for aid’ – I’d love to see a list of nations that would be able to wage a years-long, full-scale, high-intensity war against an adversary as gargantuan as Russia and with no allies or backers.
This war can still end with the free world’s victory in Ukraine and without Putin’s bloodlust spilling out into the Baltic nations, Moldova, Scandinavia, Poland etc.
There’s still time and a chance, even though a lot has been stupidly lost.
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Everyone’s favorite think tank Russia SME and a Hopkins-SAIS Kissinger Center distinguished professor had an essay published in Foreign Affairs today. Some of it is interesting, all of it is incredibly credulous. It was not met with a lot of acclaim.
While Ukraine is not getting basic aid necessary for our survival, you all of a sudden recalled an important topic to research into, that "putin was surprisingly ready for serious concessions and may be again". Surely, with the russian war machine in full mode, with 550 B $ oil…
— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) April 16, 2024
While Ukraine is not getting basic aid necessary for our survival, you all of a sudden recalled an important topic to research into, that “putin was surprisingly ready for serious concessions and may be again”. Surely, with the russian war machine in full mode, with 550 B $ oil and gas profits, Iranian, North Korean and Chinese help.
Also, Charap can very be proud of his previous wise and strategic analysis, too: we’re experiencing just now how Western weapons aren’t making any difference in Ukraine. Every night, seeing how lack of air defenses impact our economy, energy system, and our lives.
There's nothing 'complicated' about this lost paradise of the 'Istanbul deal that could have ended the war' – the Kremlin was never even closely serious about those 'contacts' with Ukraine, and it was forwarding knowingly unacceptable and absurd demands while regrouping for a new…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 16, 2024
There’s nothing ‘complicated’ about this lost paradise of the ‘Istanbul deal that could have ended the war’ – the Kremlin was never even closely serious about those ‘contacts’ with Ukraine, and it was forwarding knowingly unacceptable and absurd demands while regrouping for a new offensive in Donbas following the March setback at Kyiv.
The problem is that certain high-browed armchair strategists somehow persuaded themselves that Putin was a good-faith dove of peace offering a perfect deal he’d respect forevermore, while those dumb, mean Ukrainians rejected his noble gesture because Boris Johnson made them do so.
Mark my words based on real world experience from 25+ years. Russia has never had a genuine intention to negotiate a peace deal in the first phase of the war on Ukraine. Its modus operandi against Ukraine between 2014-2022 was attack-negotiate-cease fire-attack, rinse & repeat. https://t.co/T5znQe5iMj
— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) April 16, 2024
Daniel Szeligowski, the Head of Research Programme and Senior Research Fellow on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs had a long, detailed, very interesting assessment that picked most of Charap’s and Radchenko’s essay apart, while also breaking some new information. Here it is from the Thread Reader App:
🧵 This is already making rounds, so I will try to shed some more light on March/April 2022 Ukraine-Russia talks since the article is still far from the point, and because Poland played a much bigger role than anyone is willing to admit publiclyCharap & Radchenko rely heavily on the *Western* sources, but these were interesting times when our Western colleagues found themselves not being really in the loop, although they happily provide you with some post-factum interpretation todayWe were never close to any deal. Russia never negotiated in good faith. Moscow sent a delegation that was composed of the most anti-Ukrainian officials you can imagine. Their goal was to present the Ukrainian side with an ultimatum, not to *negotiate*During the talks, the Russian officials issued threats against members of the Ukrainian delegation and their families. This pretty tells you what the Russian attitude was at that particular timeWhile still in Belarus, the Russian delegation openly suggested to the Ukrainian delegation that they declare capitulation. Ukrainians responded with a now legendary sentence: иди на хуй (roughly: f* off)The talks moved to Turkey then. On the plane, members of the Ukrainian delegation had symptoms of poisoning. Later on, test results proved an unknown chemical substance in the body of now Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov. Russians “sent a message” – we can get youRussia never abandoned its maximalist goal. Realising that the plan to seize Kyiv “in three days” had failed, Moscow wanted to subjugate Ukraine at the negotiating table, but missed the moment when the fortune turned in favour of Ukraine and they were thrown out from Kyiv regionUnlike our Western colleagues, Poland believed from the beginning that the Russians were bluffing and so we advised accordingly our Ukrainian friends. We were in a pretty comfortable position to do it, since Polish SOF provided security for the Ukrainian delegationYes, Ukraine was ready to make concessions, but they were conditional on western security guarantees, which the West was ultimately not ready to give (one reason was that our western colleagues simply did not know much about the talks as such)The talks collapsed because the Russians never negotiated seriously, and so they did not show due flexibility (contrary to what Charap and Radchenko claim). Russia demanded Ukraine’s demilitarisation and aimed at sanctioning of Russian influence over Ukrainian domesticAnd then Bucha came. The scale of Russian crimes was so huge that it shocked even the Polish side (which, after all, has experienced Russian atrocities itself). Further talks with Russia were simply no-go for Zelensky, especially that Russian troops were already on defensiveEver since, Russians have argued that an agreement with Ukraine was close, but the West intervened, notably Boris Johnson, whom Russia accused of forcing Ukraine to abandon the negotiationsThis bears no relation to reality, of course, but somehow still resonates with many of the Western decision-makers and their pundits. But Velina puts nicely what I think of that as well:If you wanna know *a bit* more, please read this article, published by an authoritative Polish media outlet. Yep, it’s in Polish, but Google Translate or AI would do the job these daysKomandosi na Białorusi i delikatna misja w Turcji. Kulisy polskich operacji podczas wojny na Ukrainie [OPINIA]Żołnierze z polskich oddziałów specjalnych ochraniali oligarchę Romana Abramowicza, który był pośrednikiem w rozmowach ukraińsko-rosyjskich w pierwszych tygodniach wojny. Zapewniali również bezpieczeń…https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/8680269,zolnierze-polskie-oddzialy-specjalne-wojna-w-ukrainie-komandosi.htmlI admit that Charap & Radchenko did a good job, this is possibly the best article on Ukraine-Russia talks I have ever read. The problem is that the point of reference is so lame. And that’s why even a good text doesn’t reflect half of what really happened these days of 2022On a last note – the flawed theory that Ukraine-Russia deal was reportedly almost there has been and will be used in the public debate to share the narrative that Ukraine should accept the Russian demands (since it reportedly accepted them in 2022, which, again, was *not* true)I don’t think that Charap and Radchenko deliberately omitted Poland and the Polish sources. I guess they have simply been unaware of the role that Poland played in the whole story. Western experts often think that Central Europe has no agency, but sometimes we prove them wrong :)
So we now know that Polish SOF were providing the personal security detail (PSD) for the Ukrainian negotiators. We also now have independent confirmation that the Russians had actually poisoned members of the Ukrainian delegation, which we covered at the time back in 2o22. Szeligowski is far more generous that I am towards Charap and Radchenko by giving them the benefit of the doubt that they are making a good faith effort with this essay. You can read the whole thing if you like, but if you’ve been reading along her since the first war update, you already know the history, so what you’re reading for would be the author’s interpretation of events from a selective reading of selective documentation. The naivete to believe after Grozny and Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, and eastern Moldova now doing business as Transnistria that anyone believes Putin and his diplomatic and national security teams are good faith negotiators is just astoundingly naive.
More interesting and informative, is this Economist interview with Ukraine’s new national security chief.
NOT MANY non-Russians know Russia as well as Oleksandr Lytvynenko. Ukraine’s new national security chief spent five formative years in Moscow as a cryptology cadet at the elite KGB Academy. More recently, as head of Ukraine’s foreign-intelligence service during two years of war, he busied himself undermining and extracting information from his one-time peers. At the end of March, he took over one of the country’s most critical jobs.
So Mr Lytvynenko deserves to be listened to. And he has a warning for those Western politicians (Donald Trump being the most notorious example) thinking about pushing a premature peace deal on Ukraine which would require it to give up territory. “Putin has lied, is lying, and will continue to lie.” Ceding territory to Russia in return for peace would be a “cruel betrayal” of the Ukrainians left under violent occupation, he says. Many more innocent people would be killed, more would be thrown into cellars.
But there is a more pragmatic reason to reject it, too. An agreement made with a compulsive liar probably means only one thing: him regrouping, rearming and trying for more in two or three years. Russia’s leader is “addicted” to the idea of conquering Ukraine, Mr Lytvynenko says. “The next time he won’t make mistakes, but will prepare his operation much more carefully, according to all the laws of military art.”
Things were not supposed to have turned out like this for Russia, of course. Ukraine was not expected to put up a fight. Russian soldiers were supposed to be parading in Kyiv within days of the invasion. With his “blitzkrieg”, Mr Putin’s aim was to present the West with a fait accompli, Mr Lytvynenko argues. “He wanted to say: Ukraine’s over, guys, now let’s talk on my terms.” Ukraine’s heroism foiled that plan. It also fundamentally changed the negotiation. “Now a victory over the West can only come if Putin first has victory in Ukraine. In Russians’ minds, victory in Ukraine means victory over the United States.”
Has the message got through to those who need to hear it? Mr Lytvynenko heaves a sigh, and delivers a politician’s line, stressing Ukraine’s “critical partnership with the American state…regardless of who is in power.” This week, Congress might finally begin the task of signing off on much-needed military assistance. But even if it does, the emphasis is on giving Ukraine just enough to stay in the game, rather than the tools to secure a victory. And all this is before a possible Trump presidency, which could make things much more precarious.
Mr Lytvynenko is a close observer of American politics, and says he understands the extent to which the administration is worried about escalation and the global implications of war in Ukraine. But he says a Ukrainian victory would reduce, not increase, the risk of confrontation. “Leaders would become risk-averse.” A Ukrainian defeat, on the other hand, would be interpreted as proof that invasions work, with domino-like consequences in China, Taiwan, and beyond. “If aggression works once, everyone will think about having a go. Too many people are watching this war too intently.”
The security chief says Mr Putin has not yet stepped back from his maximalist aims, namely “to destroy the Ukrainian state and turn it into a buffer zone”. The Russian Orthodox church’s recent declaration of “sacred war” against Ukraine only underlines that determination. That announcement, undoubtedly made with the Kremlin’s blessing, was an “attempt to untie Putin’s hands”, and sanction harsh new campaigns against civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Odessa, Zaporizhia and beyond. The newly fanatical rhetoric is “something best compared to Islamic State”, the official continues: “It’s crucial to understand that Putinism has not yet completed its evolution. It could get even worse. If the West does not stop this, it will end up paying more later, and with its own lives. Assisting Ukraine isn’t about charity.”
After hopes for a breakthrough faded in 2023, momentum on the battlefield has shifted decisively against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin and his militarised economy have now geared up for a long war, and the West is so far unwilling to unequivocally challenge him. Front-line positions are under constant threat, with Russian guns firing at six times the rate of the Ukrainians’, and planes taking advantage of patchy air defences to launch more and more guided aerial bombs. The situation has become “very tough”, Mr Lytvynenko says. “Russians don’t care about their losses and it makes the situation even more difficult.” When asked how Ukraine might begin to get to a winning position again, the official is non-committal. It is not clear if Mr Putin could ever stop attacking Ukraine, he says, but Ukraine has to adopt a military strategy that tries to force him to.
Bakhmut:
Russia’s occupying forces in Bakhmut just published on one of their Telegram channels new video footage and photos of the eastern Ukrainian city almost a year after it was destroyed and captured. The photos are stomach-churning and I admit they fill me with rage. I’ll post them… pic.twitter.com/3BIk9dS3rN
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 16, 2024
Russia’s occupying forces in Bakhmut just published on one of their Telegram channels new video footage and photos of the eastern Ukrainian city almost a year after it was destroyed and captured. The photos are stomach-churning and I admit they fill me with rage. I’ll post them below beside my own photos from when I lived in Bakhmut in 2010-2012, when it was a vibrant, peaceful city that 80,000 called home.
These images show the central square fountain and city hall — or where city hall stood before it was blown up. The first two were taken under Russian occupation. The other two are mine from 14 years ago.
More in the thread at the link!
Krasnohorivka:
Not near Krasnohorivka, but an advance IN Krasnohorivka. This video was easy to geolocate because of the slag heap and lakes and knowing the area well: the Russian armor moves NW into southern district (south side of the railway) of the city and along Zaliznychna Street. No doubt… https://t.co/1mOrsxpcCf
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 16, 2024
Not near Krasnohorivka, but an advance IN Krasnohorivka. This video was easy to geolocate because of the slag heap and lakes and knowing the area well: the Russian armor moves NW into southern district (south side of the railway) of the city and along Zaliznychna Street. No doubt this mechanized attack and others like it are possible right now because of Ukraine’s shortage of artillery shells, due to Republicans’ blocking the military aid bill in Congress.
Chasiv Yar:
Utter destruction. The Russian army’s wiping another Ukrainian city off the map. Chasiv Yar, once a peaceful little spot with a great swimming hole and surrounded by fields, is Russia’s latest target. This is happening while Republicans block military aid. pic.twitter.com/jwSpEtdIzL
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 16, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. So here’s some adjacent material.
This is muffin, she’s not back with Eugene Kibets after getting emergency treatment for a kidney ailment.
— Eugene Kibets (@eugenehmg) April 16, 2024
ADOPTED—three beauties surviving in war torn Ukraine. Thanks Uncle Eugene @eugenehmg. pic.twitter.com/09WDvpP7ig
— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) April 16, 2024
Open thread!
laura
I’ll never choke down the gorge of bile that has been upwelling for as long as these Republican shills for “Yes, Again” obstruct necessary and popular aid until the day I die. I’ll never shrug off the deep shame I feel as the world watches. I rarely comment, but I try and bear witness. Thank you Adam Silverman for holding up the lamp, day after endless day.
Westyny
Thank you Adam. I hope there is no collateral when Republicans finally experience their karmic reward.
rikyrah
It’s absolutely enraging😠😠😠
Tehanu
@laura: What you said. Shame on America, indeed
And I have no trouble at all believing that Gosar and the rest of the Republicans have either been paid off by Putin, or that they worship his authoritarian ass so much that they’re supporting him even without getting paid, or that he’s got real dirt on them. That last is probably what applies to Dump.
Prescott Cactus
Thanks for sharing your knowledge Adam.
Lyrebird
Thank you Adam. Effing monsters here and war criminals over there.
Does someone know what the Polish author means about resemblances being coincidental?
For the other language curious commenters I will leave this translated bit from the linked article in Polish. We all need a smile.
So either Ukrainian uses “hog” where English uses the other word for a rooster, or it’s a poor translation.
Gin & Tonic
Many years ago, basketball legend Earl Monroe was asked after a game about some terrible officiating and replied “If I tell you what I think it’ll cost me $5,000,” making his opinion crystal clear. In that vein, if I were to tell you my prescription for House Republicans, Adam would likely ban me.
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: Google Translate is going into creative writing. I read the Polish article, and where Google sees “hog” I see a well-known vulgar term for penis. It is used here in the same sense as in the Snake Island “russian warship go fuck yourself” incident.
Devore
Thanks Adam. Seems like there might be a vote of some sort soon
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks G&T!
I did get the Snake Island reference –
thanks for clarifying the other bit!
machine translation has come a long way but is still glitchy
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
BREAKING Dzhankoi Air Base in temporarily occupied Crimea just had several explosions. One huge one, followed by several extremely bright smaller ones. Thinking is that an ammo cache was hit.
Jay
As always, thank you Adam.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Theory is that Ukraine hit it with a Storm Shadow missile. But that’s not proven.
YY_Sima Qian
Man, who are these Western officials telling Ukrainians that Russia must not be allowed to suffer defeat because it might fall apart & allow the PRC to grab a piece the Russian Far East, & let thousands of nukes proliferate around the world?!
There are definitely immense dangers associated w/ a dissolution of the Russian Federation, & I don’t think anyone should be trying to effect that outcome w/o having thought through the 2nd & 3rd order effects & have contingency plans to mitigate them. However, the best way to keep Russia whole is to end the war expeditiously, have Russia withdraw back to internationally recognized borders & let it lick its deep wounds for a long while. That kind of outcome can only be achieved by facilitating decisive Ukrainian victories on the battlefield, & fatally weaken Putin’s legitimacy & credibility w/ the rest of the Russian elite. Even in the case of Russian defeat, I expect the PRC will do everything in its power to keep Russia whole & at least non-hostile (if not pliant), & remain a reliable source of commodities. I don’t see a scenario, even given Ukraines current & foreseeable challenges, where Russia “wins” by seizing everything east of the Dnipro & all of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast.
& we’ve discussed this ad nauseam before, but why would the PRC want to seize parts of the Russian Far East even in the event of dissolution of the Russian Federation? What makes the Russian Far East valuable are the commodities that can be extracted from the territories, which the PRC can already purchase at steep discount w/o having to take on any geopolitical, military & financial risk or burden. Why would the PRC seizing such territory outright strengthen the country? The region has been a resource sink for Moscow for decades, & it would be a sink for Beijing, too. The PRC’s NE provinces have been rapidly losing population to the warmer south for decades, good luck getting people to migrate to the even colder & even more economically decrepit eastern Siberia. The relatively habitable parts of eastern Siberia are now overwhelmingly populated by ethnic Russians, who surely will not react well to the prospect of Chinese rule. The PRC could turn some of the new republics in Eastern Siberia into client states a la Laos & Cambodia, but it will have competition from Japan, the US, the EU & South Korea.
I swear the myopic focus on the Great Power Competition(TM) w/ the PRC is rotting some policymakers’ & analysts’ brains. Since the rivalry/Cold War w/ the PRC is just about the only thing people in DC have some level of consensus (fairly broad but shallower than upon 1st glance) on (that is, until Trump make it a partisan issue, too), any & every domestic & international initiative are being justified on those grounds. Ukrainian officials, as well as US allies in Europe & the Asia Pacific can see the zeitgeist & are molding their messaging to DC to align w/ the zeitgeist, in order to advance their interests. That distortion makes for terrible policymaking. There are plenty of reasons to support Ukraine, on its own merits. Likewise, there are plenty of reasons to help Taiwan defend its de facto independence, or defend the Philippines’ right to unimpeded access to its EEZ in the South China Sea (but not its territorial claims to the Spratley Islands, which are no more justifiable under UNCLOS than PRC or Vietnamese claims), or help Japan/South Korea/Vietnam to hedge against rising PRC power, w/o placing any of these efforts under the framework of Great Power Competition. Anyone thinks the US was not engaged in these efforts before Great Power Competition became fashionable?
Turning the purpose of assisting Ukraine into ultimately improving the US’ position in its Great Power Competition w/ the PRC plays into the hands of the cynical GOP think tankers who are advocating for retrenchment from Europe so to single-mindedly focus on the rivalry w/ the PRC in the Indo-Pacific. Also implied is treating every country not named the US & the PRC as chess pieces on the geopolitical board.
wjca
I hope that’s right. I want it to be right.
But after repeated iterations, I find that my faith is weak. In other words, I’ll believe it when the vote is over and recorded. Not sooner.
wjca
Would it be any more dangerous than the dissolution of the USSR was? The main difference that I can see is that, having been thru such a dissolution once, we might have a slightly better handle on how to procede a second time.
Jay
@wjca:
It’s up to ruZZia and the “ruZZians” if it falls apart and how it falls apart. Nobody else has a say.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: The US & the West was not trying to effect nor expected the dissolution of the USSR. By the time it got rolling it was already unstoppable. Mitigating the downside of the dissolution of the USSR was helped by the fact that the Russian Federation itself did not dissolve, & the fact that the SSRs gave up their nukes, ICBMs & strategic bombers to Russia. Had they tried to hold on to the WMDs & the delivery platforms (not that they could use them since all of the launch codes were in Moscow), things could have become hairy. As it was, there was plenty of bloodletting in the Caucasus (including Chechnya), & continuing tension (w/ the occasional skirmishes) between Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan to this day.
AlaskaReader
Republicans, in their willful and inherent support for serving Putin’s interests at the expense of our own and our allies interests, are wholly complicit in abetting Putin’s genocidal war.
The Republican Party, implicitly, is nothing more or less than a traitorous criminal organization serving their interests at the expense of our own, and the whole of the free world’s, interests.
Republican voters own that, and by that act, they own the support they are willfully lending to each and every aim of the criminal Republican party,
All of which in turn makes Republican voters willfully complicit, even to the extent of the traitorous acts and the genocidal war crimes being committed daily,
…and they would, never forget,
…happily and intentionally re-elect those same and worse traitorous war criminals for even the highest of public offices tomorrow.
The worst part of all that, …is that it’s nothing new,
our history is replete with ever-expanding and irrefutable evidence.
The potential that it may continue is unthinkable.
wjca
I don’t see that we’re trying to make the Russian Federation dissolve either. No certain whether we’re really expecting it either, although I would hope someone is at least roughing out contingency plans.
If it does start, I don’t see how we, or anyone else outside, have any prospect of stopping it.
The issue of Russia’s nukes would certainly be a mess. Especially since those successor states which happened to inherit any would take one look at what has happened to Ukraine after giving theirs up and absolutely refuse to do the same. They might not be able to maintain the systems long term. But let go of them? No way. So proliferation would be a done deal.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: I was not saying any country has been trying to effect Russia’s dissolution. I was saying that one should be very careful advocating for such a policy, absolutely need to game out the 2nd & 3rd order effects & have the appropriate contingency planning. Even then there will be plenty of surprises when empires fall.
wjca
@YY_Sima Qian: OK, got it now. We seem to be on the same page.
Freemark
Is the official term Russlicans or Repussians, for the traitor party now?
wjca
@Freemark:
I believe Quisling Party is available. (Although they might prefer CSA, for historic reasons, it doesn’t really do their positions and actions justice.)
patrick II
@YY_Sima Qian:
The war is binary.Either Ukraine wins or Russia does. If we half-ass it, Russia wins by attrition Not to mention you can’t play war of such size and complexity “just right”, And. that we would be complicit in the death a country, culture, and people if we misjudge how much is” just enough”.. Not to mention which would you rather have,Russia threatening Europe or China threatening eastern Russia.?
Jay
@patrick II:
China is not going to threaten Eastern ruZZia. This ain’t a Tom Clancy novel. If ruZZia loses in Ukraine, and breaks apart, China will still be able to buy everything they buy from the pieces at 50% off the rubles. If ruZZia stays intact, China will still be able to buy everything they buy at 50% off the rubles.
If ruZZia loses in Ukraine, and breaks apart, China will still be able to sell everything they sell to the pieces at 150% of the Yuan. If ruZZia stays intact, China will still be able to sell everything they sell at 150% of the Yuan.
If ruZZia wins, The West can expect a flood of up to 30 million Ukrainian refugees, and all the resentment and disorder that will bring, and a genocide of 8 million more.
There will be very loud voices saying that “OK, ruZZia won, so let’s go back to doing business with them.
There will be a fracturing of NATO, (Hungary, Slovenia, possibly Poland) and in 5-10 years, an invasion of a NATO/EU country.
Nobody will ever trust the US again because the US will sit that one out too.
Poland is already talking in quiet voices about getting nukes.
daveNYC
@YY_Sima Qian:The foreign policy space is a hot mess of stupid. My personal theory is that a whole lot of the people in the foreign policy business, think tanks, State Department, big name university departments, etc. locked in their theory, the underlying fundamental physics, of how nations interact way back in their PhD days, and hold on to the belief that that theory explains everything about how nations interact with each other. You can see that with Mearsheimer trying to explain Russia’s actions in terms of Great Power/Offensive Realism theory which required him to basically ignore everything Russia was saying and doing at the time in order to make it fit.
Then you also, probably, have a bunch of people who have their own pet ‘master plans’ for US diplomacy that they refuse to update to reflect what other countries are doing. The people who didn’t think Russia would invade because it would be really stupid. The people who slow rolled aid over the past two years because they either want to bleed Russia, think that there’s some magical level of support that will convince Putin to pull back but anything over that will lead to nukes, others who think that what really needs to happen is for Russia to team up with the USA and pivot to contain China and they don’t want to do anything that might stop that future team-up from happening, etc.
Overall, just a whole lot of people in various positions of power who are acting like the punchline, “It works in practice, but does it work in theory?”
It’s like if the DoD had a guy who was utterly convinced that heavy cavalry charges were the way and the light, but instead of keeping him locked in the basement and letting him out to wrangle the parade horses, they put him in charge of designing the next-gen MBT.
Jay
@patrick II:
Oh, forgot to mention the part about global famine if ruZZia wins. Ukraine will remain a devastated, mined wasteland for decades.
YY_Sima Qian
@patrick II: Since much of the DC “Blob” has decided that the PRC is by far the most credible challenger to US primacy (on that they are not wrong), the cynical primacists among them would very much prefer Russia threatening Europe (which incidentally keeps NATO/EU onside for most of the US’ foreign policy priorities including Great Power Competition vis-a-vis the PRC) than PRC threatening Russia from the east. Some GOP associated parts of the “Blob” (might want to study up the name Elbridge Colby, who could be the SecDef under a 2nd Trump Administration) are quite transparent about it. Some of them cling to the delusion of pulling a reverse Kissinger & peel off Russia from the PRC in the new Cold War. That basically requires surrendering to Putin’s maximalist irredentist aims wrt Russia’s “near abroad”.
I am fairly certain that is the motivation behind some of the comments that Zelenskyy referred to.
BTW, this is how one can cut through all of the euphemisms & see if any given policymaker/analyst is really motivated by establishing a fair & just “rules based international order”, or maintaining US primacy in perpetuity under the guise of maintaining a “rules based international order”.
YY_Sima Qian
@daveNYC: All of the different flavors you described have one thing in common: they are animated by the desire to maintain US primacy in perpetuity, rather than any sentiment toward building a fair & just “rules based international order”. Mearesheimer is absolutely unapologetic in this regard.
It’s all a game of Risk to them.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
We are already seeing early signs of NATO/EU members distancing themselves from the US, regarding both Ukraine and Israel.
If the US won’t support Ukraine, then the EU/NATO remaining block will not support the US regarding China.
China is half a world away, ruZZia is next door.
EU/NATO are starting to believe, given Ukraine/TIFG, more and more, that they are on their own.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Well, the potential prospect of the return of Trump is certainly concentrating the minds in some European capitals. OTOH, the right wing governments in Japan & South Korea think they can manage/manipulate Trump like they did the 1st time around.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
I’d say China came out further ahead with Jarvanka than Japan and South Korea did.
Neither South Korea nor Japan put any real money in TFIG’s pockets, which is all that matters to TFIG, and don’t forget Kim’s Perfect Letter.
Don’t forget Taiwan.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: However, Trump was not running all of the US foreign policy at the time. Through the “Phase I Trade Deal”, I think Beijing probably believed they were relatively successful in managing Trump, including through obviously corrupt quid pro cuos. Then the pandemic hit & Trump discerned that his political survival depended on leaning in to Red-baiting xenophobia. That gave space to the über-hawks in his administration to steer the Sino-US relationship toward that of a Cold War, & came very close to upending the “One China Policy” near the end. I think Beijing concluded that Trump is an utterly unreliable & unpredictable interlocutor.
Unfortunately, the Biden Administrations defied the early expectations by maintaining & even sometimes escalating from Trump’s China policy, albeit at lower rhetorical temperature, especially through end of 2022. OTOH, I suspect Beijing at least appreciates that Biden is a more predictable actor.
daveNYC
@YY_Sima Qian: Eh, I don’t have a huge problem with them having the goal of maintaining US primacy. It’s not the best goal in the world, and I’d certainly like them to maybe aim for something that aims a bit more for fairness and justice and whatnot, but it’s at least an understandable goal to have.
The bigger problem is that they seem to be rather unhinged as to how to go about achieving that goal, so it’s rather likely that they’ll cause a whole lot of damage and destruction while also failing to maintain the USA’s position in the world.
Sort of reminds me of the post-WWI action by the British and French in the Middle-East, where they drew lines on maps and setup local leaders without actually considering that the locals and the leaders they were propping up might have their own interests and agendas.
It’s less like they view this as a game of Risk and more like either Civilization (where the opponents run on a computer algo, so their behavior is predictable) or a college game of Diplomacy where they know all the players and they’ve pre-gamed a plan ahead of time. Just a complete inability to deal with the real world where other countries/leaders have full agency and their behavior is not rigidly governed by whatever theory they learned back in grad school.
Jesse
This is the first time I’ve heard a potential territorial expansion of China mentioned as a concern. I mean, I get the concern about what would happen to/in Russia were they to lose against Ukraine, but I’ve never heard the additional (to my mind purely theoretical) concern that China would seize an opportunity to claim land. How does that square against the “no limits” “friendship” that formally exists between the two countries?
Jay
@Jesse:
It doesn’t. It’s the plot of a bad 90’s Tom Clancy novel, (with Japan on the side of China and the US supporting ruZZia) which has embedded itself into the fantasies of segments of the US MIC.
China has no need to invade the ruZZian far east. If Ukraine wins, and ruZZia stays intact, China can simply buy what they are currently buying at half price and sell what they are selling at twice the price. They can also take over a bunch of economic sectors, through management and investment. Same thing goes if Ukraine wins and ruZZia splits up.
Once in a blue moon, Chinese “nationalists” print maps of Eastern ruZZia with all the old Chinese names for the cities, which is seized upon as “evidence” of a Chinese plot to seize Siberia, rather than just a history lesson
Far too often the US MIC is so smart that they are morons, over thinking everything.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jesse: The “friendship” is one of convenience & converging interests, the tightness of the relationship is proportional to the amount of pressure the US is placing on both Russia & the PRC at the same time. There has always been clear limits to the “no limits”, or else the PRC would be leveraging its immersion military industrial base to ensure Russia has well supplied w/ competitive weapons & munitions & overmatch over Ukraine. “No limits” has not be reiterated since it was 1st mentioned in Feb. ’22.
Both Russian & PRC “diplo-speak” are given to rhetorical flourishes & hyperbole, not to be taken literally.
trnc
Nazis and baptists aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive, but maybe that’s just in the US. Of course, MTG would never complain about nazis inside the US, so her bullshit complaint is something to see.