(Air Raid Alert Map of Ukraine as of 7:13 PM EDT on 29 MAY 2024)
Quick housekeeping note: The girls are doing fine. Rosie is acting/being more her normal self than before she was diagnosed. Her next chemo treatment is on this coming Monday, which will be the first treatment of the second round. Until then there’s not much to report. Thank you all again very much for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations!
Also, it’s been a long couple of days, so I’m going to try to keep tonight’s update shorter.
As you can see from the map, most of Ukraine is under air raid warnings right now.
Kharkiv is being attacked as I write this:
Several explosions reported in Kharkiv! Right now, russian forces are attacking the night city with missiles!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 29, 2024
As are several other oblasts and cities:
Currently, several oblasts of Ukraine are under attack by russian Shahed drones. Moreover, monitoring channels are reporting the takeoff of russian Tu-95 bombers, meaning that early this morning Ukraine is likely to be under massive missile attack.
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 29, 2024
The Tu-95 “Bear” bombers are what is most likely responsible for the air raid warnings being posted so far west.
Sumy Oblast was also attacked again earlier today.
Russians mount 17 attacks on border areas in #Sumy Oblast, killing and injuring civilians
🔗 https://t.co/XN48GescyZ#Druzhba #IOC #IOCmedia #Putyvl #RoadToParis2024 #Russia #SeredynaBuda #BBCBreaking #GBNews pic.twitter.com/xCo2RRLacR— European Media News 24 (@europeanMedia24) May 29, 2024
From Ukrainska Pravda:
The Russian army launched 17 attacks on settlements in Sumy Oblast on 29 May. In total, 68 explosions were documented.
Source: Sumy Oblast Military Administration
Details: In the afternoon, the Russian army launched a missile attack on the Krasnopillia hromada [a hromada is an administrative unit designating a village, several villages, or a town, and their adjacent territories – ed.]. Two people are reported to have been killed. The number of people injured has risen to five.
One person was injured in a mortar attack in the Seredyna-Buda hromada, where three explosions were recorded.
In the Myropillia hromada, the Russians launched artillery attacks. Two explosions were documented. In the Esman hromada, there was a mortar attack (four explosions).
In the Shalyhyne hromada, Russia dropped 14 mines. The Russians attacked the Druzhba hromada using multiple-launch rocket systems (11 explosions). A mortar attack was recorded in the Putyvl hromada (17 explosions).
In the Velyka Pysarivka hromada, the Russians mounted attacks using UAVs (four explosions) and a mortar (eight explosions).
The Kyiv Independent also has details on yesterday’s attacks:
Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast 81 times in 23 separate attacks throughout the day, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 28.
The communities of Bilopillia, Khotin, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Berezivka, Seredyna-Buda, Novoslobidske, Putyvl, Hlukhiv, and Esman, were targeted.
Throughout the day, Russia assailed the border communities with mortar, drone, and artillery attacks, while also dropping explosives from drones onto a community.
No casualties or injuries were reported.
The town of Velyka Pysarivka, located about 3 kilometers west of the Ukraine-Russia border, experienced the bulk of the attacks reported with 19 explosions recorded in the area.
Given the town’s proximity to Russia, Velyka Pysarivka has become a main target of attack for Russia over recent months. Much of the community’s infrastructure has been destroyed by Russian attacks.
Russian strikes against Sumy Oblast have become increasingly destructive in recent months. Amid intensified attacks, Ukrainian authorities ordered increased evacuations from the region.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said on May 14 he expects Russia to launch a new attack in Sumy Oblast once the situation in Kharkiv Oblast stabilized, the New York Times reported.
Officials from Ukraine’s Border Guard service later said that Russia does not have enough troops on the Sumy Oblast border to launch a major attack on the region.
Shelling is a daily occurrence for the communities near Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia, with residents in the region’s vulnerable border settlements experience multiple attacks per day.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Russia Is No Longer in a Position to Disrupt the Global Peace Summit, Although It Is Trying Hard to Do So – the Address by the President
29 May 2024 – 20:29
Dear Ukrainians!
Today we are grateful to Sweden: there is a new and very significant military package for our warriors. It is a substantial reinforcement. Yesterday, on my way to Ukraine after my working visit, I spoke with Mr. Prime Minister Kristersson about both the situation on the battlefield and our current needs. We are working at maximum capacity to make our air defense system more effective, and Sweden is providing Ukraine with special radar surveillance aircraft; armored vehicles and ammunition are also part of this package. The whole package is worth almost €1.2 billion. Thank you, Sweden! It is one of our most principled partners, and it is thanks to Sweden that thousands of lives have already been saved in Ukraine.
Today I also received reports from the Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff, and the Minister of Defense of our state on the current situation on the front, on our actions. Attention is being paid to all directions, especially the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions in the Donetsk region, as well as the Kupyansk and other directions in the Kharkiv region. I am grateful to each unit that is doing everything necessary to stabilize the situation on the front. We are also preparing for any further enemy activity – we clearly understand what tasks Putin sets for his army and for what purpose. We will respond to him – for sure. And we are also preparing our diplomatic responses to Russia’s attempts to undermine the Peace Summit, which begins in two weeks. Russia is no longer in a position to disrupt the summit, although it is trying very hard to do so. It is putting pressure on leaders, openly threatening various states with destabilization. And this is one of the consequences of the world giving the terrorist state too much time. Unfortunately, evil knows how to adapt, and now it is using its means to divide the world and prevent Russia from being forced into peace. But we already have almost a hundred states and international organizations joining us in this global effort.
Today I held a long meeting with all our officials involved in the preparations for the Summit. The team of the Office and the government officials were present – the Prime Minister and the Ministers; the Verkhovna Rada was also represented – the Chairman of the Parliament is now in contact with many countries through interparliamentary relations. I have given them the task of providing detailed information on an almost daily basis about the states that still need our work to attend the Summit and the states that have already confirmed their participation – to make the Summit as effective as it needs to be to bring real peace closer. I thank all the leaders who are helping! I am grateful to everyone in the world who is literally on the phone these days, in constant contact, in negotiations, so that this global format can become an example – an example of how the joint work of different nations of the world can restore the effectiveness of the UN Charter and force the aggressor into peace.
Today I spoke with the Prime Minister of Australia, and Australia has also confirmed its participation in the Summit. I also spoke with the UN Secretary-General about the preparations for the Summit, about how important it is for the UN system to be effective and for the UN to always be part of genuine peacekeeping efforts. And from now on, every day will be just as active in our international work for the sake of Ukraine – for the sake of our independence, our peace.
Glory to Ukraine!
Today, I had my weekly phone conversation with US @SecDef Lloyd Austin.
We discussed the current situation at the front.
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported in detail about the situation on the battlefield.
I separately informed my American colleague about the mobilization…
— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) May 29, 2024
Today, I had my weekly phone conversation with US @SecDef Lloyd Austin.
We discussed the current situation at the front.
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported in detail about the situation on the battlefield.
I separately informed my American colleague about the mobilization efforts and recovery of our combat brigades.
We continue to focus on the issue of air defense and ammunition.
russia continues to use guided aerial bombs along the entire front line. I also emphasized that Ukraine should have the right to strike enemy territory.
I am grateful to our American partners for their constant support.
Together, to victory! 🇺🇦🇺🇸
This is interesting:
A group of former high-ranking NATO commanders wrote an open letter with demands to provide Ukraine with maximum military aid and issuing the risks of Ukraine’s potential defeat on the battlefield. Main demands are in the thread below pic.twitter.com/T1832iWFzz
— SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre (@StratcomCentre) May 29, 2024
Here’s the full text of the letter:
Open Letter – Ukraine and Global Security
A group of former high-ranking NATO commanders wrote an open letter with demands to provide Ukraine with maximum military aid and issuing the risks of Ukraine’s potential defeat on the battlefield. Full text is in the text below.
As NATO’s 75th Anniversary approaches, we undersigned call upon Western leaders to urgently
deliver the military assistance needed to ensure that Ukraine can withstand the ongoing brutal assault from Russia, restore its sovereign borders, and build a strong democracy with a modernized military force that will deter future Russian aggression. Global security hangs in the balance.Now into the third year of this illegal war, Ukraine’s ability to continue its successful defense against
Russian aggression and one of the largest militaries in the world is endangered. The ongoing reduction of Western assistance will leave Ukraine with no chance to withstand this existential struggle and the military defeat of Ukraine’s Armed Forces could happen within months.Ukraine chose the path of democracy and rejected Russian authoritarianism with security assurances from Western partners that, if left unfulfilled, would represent a historic betrayal and the almost certain eradication of the Ukrainian people and their culture. Russia’s leadership does not hide its plans to destroy Ukraine as an independent state, which it previously attempted in the 1932-33 Holodomor that resulted in the deaths of millions of innocent Ukrainians. Hundreds of thousands more will die trying to defeat Russia’s current invasion, and millions will be forced to leave Ukraine and become refugees.
Despite this obvious tragedy, the consequences of the defeat of Ukraine will be much more serious to global stability and will imperil Western civilization. The reluctance and lack of courage by the West to support Ukraine will inevitably be perceived by other authoritarian regimes as an invitation to use military expansionism, resulting in other costly wars. Losing confidence in the U.S. as the leader of the free world, weaker states will seek to guarantee their security through arrangements with Russia and China. As European countries discover the fragility of NATO’s symbolic deterrence, they will also pivot away from American influence and seek alternate security agreements. This could lead to the demise of the Western Alliance and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The West can still act to avoid this perilous but highly possible outcome. Ukraine’s spirit is indomitable, and Ukrainians have proven repeatedly that they can effectively contain and defeat Russia on the battlefield, even in the face of Russian superiority in forces and means. Yet, the epochal threat posed by Russia cannot be answered with platitudes or hollow concepts. Rather, we call upon the leaders of all NATO states to immediately undertake the following actions:
- Unblock all military assistance to Ukraine, including the accelerated delivery of critical combat systems, innovative battlefield technologies, priority training efforts, and needed replenishment of Ukraine’s operational stocks of all scales of ammunition and spare parts.
- At the upcoming NATO Summit, announce NATO’s intention to support Ukraine until its sovereignty and territorial integrity have been restored, and provide Ukraine a pathway for accession to the Alliance.
- In the meantime, like the recent Estonian pledge, conclude bilateral long-term security agreements with Ukraine, which commit Ukraine’s Western partners to permanent military and technical assistance.
If, by the time of NATO’s 75th Anniversary, Western leaders have not committed to providing Ukraine the resources that it urgently requires, the betrayal of Ukraine will signal to Russia and other potential antagonists that the Alliance lacks the strategic commitment, internal fortitude, and collective will to defend the sovereignty of its member nations. For Ukraine’s survival and NATO’s continued relevance, there is no substitute for a Ukrainian victory.
General Sir Alexander Richard David Shirreff, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (2011-2014)
General Riho Terras, Chief of Defense of Estonia (2011-2018)
Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, The U.S. Army Europe Commander (2014-2017)
Lieutenant General Mark Phillip Hertling, The U.S. Army Europe Commander (2011-2012)
Major General Michael Repass, The U.S. Special Operations Command Europe Commander (2010-2013)
Major General Riho Ühtegi, The Estonian Special Operations Force Commander (2012-2019)
Bundeswehr Brigadier General (ret.) Klaus Wittmann
Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Minister of Defense of Poland (1992-1993, 1997-2000).
Sweden:
Sweden announced a new military aid package to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense. It’s the largest package from Sweden, valued at €1.16 billion.
The package includes ASC 890 Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft, as well as Rb 99 AMRAAM missiles. Sweden will also donate its… pic.twitter.com/RA6hRXBDFA
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 29, 2024
Sweden announced a new military aid package to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense. It’s the largest package from Sweden, valued at €1.16 billion.
The package includes ASC 890 Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft, as well as Rb 99 AMRAAM missiles. Sweden will also donate its entire stock of PBV 302 armored tracked personnel carriers and surplus tank vehicles from the armed forces.
We express our deep gratitude to our Swedish partners for their unwavering support! Your support is crucial for Ukraine’s fight for freedom.
🇺🇦🤝🇸🇪
@ForsvarsdepSv
@PlJonson
This is a really big deal!
A completely new capability to strengthen Ukraine’s collective air defence.
Read more: https://t.co/J2eOYlBPtz pic.twitter.com/0CSbXp3dHU
— Sweden in Ukraine (@SwedeninUA) May 29, 2024
From the Government Offices of Sweden:
Military support package 16 to Ukraine – new capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence and support to meet its prioritised needs
Published
Today, 29 May, the Government is presenting its 16th and largest military support package to Ukraine to date since Russia’s full-scale invasion began. Sweden will provide Ukraine with a completely new capability to strengthen its collective air defence. The package, which will be part of an upcoming additional amending budget, amounts to SEK 13.3 billion and will meet Ukraine’s prioritised needs.
Ukraine’s needs remain immense and Russia is currently putting pressure on several fronts, intensifying its air strikes against both military and civilian objects. The Government will therefore provide Ukraine with another record military support package. Sweden’s support will contribute to strengthening Ukraine’s joint military capability.
Sweden will send Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890) to Ukraine and thus strengthen its air defence capability. Sweden will donate its entire stock of armoured tracked personnel carriers (PBV 302) to support the reconstruction of new Ukrainian brigades. Sweden will also donate artillery ammunition and resources for maintenance of previously donated materiel.
Since Russia’s brutal war of aggression began in February 2022, Sweden has provided SEK 43.5 billion in support.
Air defence
The support package will include Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890), which will provide Ukraine with a completely new capability against both airborne and maritime targets. Ukraine’s capability to identify and engage targets at long range will be strengthened. The package will also include a holistic solution that involves training, technical equipment and methodological support for air surveillance and command and control.
The donation will entail a temporary decrease of Sweden’s defence capability, which will be addressed by procuring additional S 106 GlobalEye aircraft and advancing previous orders for two new GlobalEye aircraft.
To further strengthen Ukraine’s air defence, the support package will also include the Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (RB 99-AMRAAM), which can be used on aircraft and in ground-based air defence systems. The missiles will be redesigned to suit ground-based anti-aircraft systems. Meanwhile, Sweden will purchase new missiles to replace the donated ones.
Ammunition
Ukrainian field units are short on artillery ammunition. The package will include an addition of 155 mm artillery shells to increase Ukraine’s capability to combat Russian units in the depths of the battlefield.
The donation will entail a temporary decrease of Sweden’s defence capability, which will be addressed by procuring replacement grenades.
Strengthened reconstruction of new Ukrainian brigades
The Ukrainian army is organising a number of new brigades and therefore needs armoured vehicles for infantry companies. Therefore, Sweden will donate its entire stock of PBV 302, including spare parts, maintenance equipment and ammunition.
The donation will entail a temporary decrease of Sweden’s defence capability, which will be addressed by procuring replacement armoured vehicles.
Financial support, satellite communications, maintenance, tank vehicles and research
The 16th military support package will also contain the following:
- Surplus fuel transport vehicles from the Swedish Armed Forces;
- maintenance of previously donated Swedish materiel;
- financial support to capability coalitions;
- financial support to funds and temporary initiatives to enable swift and large-scale procurement of materiel to Ukraine;
- in connection with the package, the Swedish Defence Research Agency will be tasked with supporting Ukraine in establishing its own defence research institute;
- Ukraine’s command and control capability will be further strengthened in the package through a donation of terminals with subscriptions for satellite communications.
Apart from the aircraft, 🇸🇪Sweden gives us all of its Pansarbandvagn 302 IFV – all of them.
As far as I understand, Sweden has over 170 of them.
And also RB 99-AMRAAM missiles.
THIS. IS. ABSOLUTELY. BASED. pic.twitter.com/0v67SKfFMR
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 29, 2024
The Swedes are very clear eyed about the stakes and what is really on the line.
Air power experts have long pointed out that individual planes (F-16s) don’t equate to Western air power, which involves a broad suite of enablers & capabilities. In that regard, Sweden’s donation of an airborne early warning & control aircraft to Ukraine is very important. https://t.co/2IGWRRSShs
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 29, 2024
There has been some concern before about Russian access to Link 16 technology, though an AEWC platform isn’t going to be flying close to the frontlines. https://t.co/zjzH85jmVg
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 29, 2024
Countries that authorized use of their weapons against targets on Russian soil:
– Finland
– UK
– the Netherlands
– France
– Poland
– Czech Republic
– Estonia
– Latvia
– Lithuania
– Sweden
– Denmark
– CanadaCountries that have used nukes in response.
–
— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) May 29, 2024
So, as of now, about 10 European nations have officially stated that Ukraine can use weapons provided by them to strike legitimate Russian military targets in Russian territory, as per the very basic logic of fighting a war to win.
Will the U.S. administration and Berlin…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 29, 2024
So, as of now, about 10 European nations have officially stated that Ukraine can use weapons provided by them to strike legitimate Russian military targets in Russian territory, as per the very basic logic of fighting a war to win.
Will the U.S. administration and Berlin continue to stubbornly adhere to artificially imposed restrictions that make no sense and, moreover, directly undermine the possibility of what we all do this for — a Ukrainian victory, the prevention of Russia’s continuing aggressive military expansion in Europe and the coming of just and stable peace?
That is the question.
Germany seems to have provided a muddled answer:
“After months of griping at western capitals barring Ukraine from using their weapons to strike back against targets inside Russia, last night brought a major breakthrough as French President Emmanuel Macron bowed to Zelenskyy’s request, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz voiced… https://t.co/oOvtBFqHv9
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 29, 2024
“After months of griping at western capitals barring Ukraine from using their weapons to strike back against targets inside Russia, last night brought a major breakthrough as French President Emmanuel Macron bowed to Zelenskyy’s request, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz voiced his agreement.”
…
“Scholz, who has been one of the most reticent western leaders on this issue, said Ukraine had every right ‘under international law’ to hit targets in Russia in order to defend itself.”
Important shift by Olaf Scholz:
A person “familiar” with the German gov’s position confirms to POLITICO’s Berlin Playbook that the Chancellor did indeed mean with yesterday’s remark that Ukraine could strike back with Western weapons on Russian soil.https://t.co/yQtt7Ncfs3
— Hans von der Burchard (@vonderburchard) May 29, 2024
Politico EU has the details:
BERLIN — The German government is cautiously ditching its reservations about allowing Ukraine to hit military targets inside Russia with donated arms.
On Tuesday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Ukraine could use German-supplied weapons “within the framework of international law,” which would allow them to be used against an aggressor like Russia, including inside Russian territory.
That wasn’t quite as clear as other countries have been on the topic.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who spoke alongside Scholz on Tuesday, said: “We have to allow [Ukrainians] to neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are fired, but not other civilian or military targets,” adding a limit that’s not in line with what Kyiv wants.
Other countries leave even less ambiguity.
“Polish weapons sent to Ukraine have no limits. Ukrainians can use them as they see fit,” Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk said in a Polish radio interview.
Berlin moved on Wednesday to clear up confusion about what Scholz meant to say.
Scholz’s spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit told reporters that Ukraine’s “defensive action is not limited to one’s own territory, but [can] also be expanded to the territory of the aggressor,” while also stressing that he could not reveal precise agreements with Kyiv on using German weapons as they are “confidential.”
Hebestreit further argued that a year-old statement by Scholz, in which he said there was a “consensus” that Ukraine would not use German weapons on Russian soil, had been “a statement of facts” that was true at that moment but did not necessarily apply to the future.
A person familiar with the German government’s position also said that Scholz was in favor of allowing the use of Western weapons against targets inside Russia, without going into detail.
“I find it strange,” Scholz told reporters on Tuesday, “when some people have discussions and say that they [the Ukrainians] are not allowed to defend themselves and take measures that are suitable for this.”
Well that’s clear as mud.
The real issue here is going to be what happens with US weapons systems, weapons, and munitions/ammo. The US has end use agreements in place with the states we do direct MIL-MIL sales and transfers, State Department authorized sales from US defense contractors, and Commerce Department authorized sales for dual use items. Those end use agreements often have prohibitions about under what circumstances US produced defense material can be transferred and used. We will now have to wait and see what the US, and US here means the Biden administration, in terms of whether it joins the ever growing list of its allies and partners and whether it allows US produced defense material that those allies and partners have transferred to Ukraine to be used by the Ukrainians to strike targets in Russia.
Vovochansk, Kharkiv Oblast:
20 days after the beginning of the Russian invasion of northern Kharkiv, the center of #Vovchansk remains under Ukrainian control … and Russia destroys it house by house. pic.twitter.com/X6VPfgFgtV
— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) May 29, 2024
The left bank of the Dnipro:
The occupiers tried to cross the Dnipro and received a “warm welcome” from the warriors of the 79th @DPSU_ua detachment. pic.twitter.com/JwW9pMYf4s
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 29, 2024
Russian occupied Crimea:
Follow us on other channels; support our work: https://t.co/ZFU6CGgMON
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 5, 2023
Kharkiv Oblast:
Maxim Tucker of The Times via the Thread Reader App:
In Kharkiv for @thetimes, I encountered an astonishing act of heroism by ‘Drago’ (L), a 24 yr-old special forces officer in Ukraine’s Kraken Detachment. He was awarded a medal for valour for extraordinary actions while holding the Russians for 16 hours at the village of Krasne…Elite Russian Spetznaz had crept into his unit’s rear, he told me: “You could see how professionally and well co-ordinated they were working; it was high-level stuff. They had the latest-model Kalashnikovs and night-vision devices. They covered their movement by accurate fire.”Drago was recovering from concussion and second-degree burns at Kraken headquarters in the bombed-out city of Kharkiv as he described his encounter with Russia’s feared special forces.Plumes of smoke trailed into the sky above the city as he spoke, marking the aftermath of a Russian air raid on a factory.Putin failed to take Kharkiv in the early months of the war and his forces now appear determined to raze the city. Once home to 1.5 million mostly Russian-speaking inhabitants, today it is scarred by flattened apartment blocks and university buildings riddled with shrapnel.Drago and his men had been watching Russian troops massing across the border since last month, powerless to hit their supplies and ammunition with a pre-emptive strike because of a US prohibition on the use of long-range American missiles on Russian soil.“There were a lot of Russians gathering, we could’ve destroyed them coming in but we don’t have many ATACMS and we have a ban on using them there,” he said, shaking his head as he discussed the casualties the US policy cost his unit. “We had to wait for them to cross the border.”When the Russians did move into the Kharkiv region, they ran straight into his First Assault Company, specialist night fighters under the command of Ukraine’s military intelligence, HUR. Along with other special forces fighters, they had been redeployed from the Donbas region.The clash triggered a day-long gun battle between elite soldiers at the village of Krasne as the Russians pressed their new offensive against Ukraine’s second-largest city.This account is based on a Kraken commander’s report, Drago’s testimony, and the HUR rationale for awarding him the Order for Courage medal, presented by Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, for “bold and decisive actions in a tactically unfavourable situation”.Russian artillery had opened up at 3am, covering the movement of small groups of specialised infantry. The Spetsnaz bypassed Ukraine’s defensive strongpoints at night, looping back to encircle the Ukrainian troops who held them.“They came through the marshes and the trees, almost unnoticed by our attack drones,” said Drago, who was encouraged to join the special forces during his training with the British military last summer.“The adjacent units were newly formed, people who had no combat experience yet. They were next to us, trying to hold the line of defence, but the enemy, consisting of 20 people, came to our rear.”Drago tried to shoot his way out of the trenches, but the Russians tossed in grenades, igniting the wooden fortifications and burning both his legs. With the enemy in front and his trenches on fire, the situation seemed hopeless. He called in artillery fire on his own position.“It worked. The artillery killed at least three of them and they dropped back. Then our back-up group arrived with machinegunners,” he said. This second team of eight Kraken soldiers tried to provide covering fire from a treeline.But working methodically, the Russians took out their machinegunners. One was killed outright; the other was wounded, shot in the lung and coughing up blood. “At first my mind went empty. It felt so hard to see my friend lying dead on the ground,” he told me:“I was drained and devastated that the guy who came here to save us had died.” The men who had been hit were his friends from civilian life, bonded closer by two years of war together.“I was trying to pull myself together. I realised I have to be patient, to calm down, and I need to save my other friend’s life.” Drago clambered out of cover to reach the wounded gunner, dragged him into a trench and managed to dress his wound and stabilise him.Then he was caught by another grenade and concussed as he called for casualty evacuation. He lost his rifle in the blast, so grabbed a Kalashnikov from a dead Russian and fought on.The Russians arrived inside the first dugout, starting a shootout at a distance of only 5m from the second dugout. Drago’s group killed at least two of them.The second group of three fell back to another area where the evacuation vehicle was arriving. Badly wounded, Drago and his second group could not make it there before it was forced to leave under heavy fire.He called in a second vehicle but the Russians were already in the Ukrainian trenches and the driver could not tell where to go to evacuate Drago and his men. In plain sight of the Russians, Drago decided to stand up over the parapet to signal his position, ignoring the bullets.Ordering the driver to park with one hand on the steering wheel and the other firing his rifle at the enemy, Drago covered the evacuation with a smoke grenade, then dragged the wounded machinegunner into the back of the vehicle.By the time they pulled away, the Kraken teams had held the Russians at Krasne for 16 hours, buying crucial time for more Ukrainian special forces and assault brigades to take up positions at the village of Lyptsi, where they are fighting fiercely to hold on to high ground.Their task has been made more difficult, HUR officers say, because the US has still not given the go-ahead to use long-range weapons such as ATACMS on Russian soil, despite Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, hinting at lifting those restrictions.
Donetsk Oblast:
/2. Pieces of RPG-7 munition found on the site of the strike in Donetsk https://t.co/zKnm7lUpd2
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024
Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have a new assessment up regarding the rail line Russia has been constructing between Burne and Malovodne. From the Thread Reader App:
The Frontelligence Insight assesses that Russia is very close to launching the new railroad line between Burne and Malovodne (Donetsk Oblast), likely within weeks or days. The satellite imagery confirms limited train movement
Before proceeding, please like and share
2/ The construction of an 80km railroad in Donetsk Oblast, approximately initiated around June 2023, aimed to establish a direct link between occupied southern Ukraine and the rest of Russia as a partial alternative to the Crimean Bridge.3/ According to Mariupol mayoral advisor Petro Andriushchenko’s statement on May 8th, operations are expected to commence by late May or early June. Additionally, in April and early May, three test trains traveled from Volnovakha in Donetsk Oblast to Mariupol’s port and back.4/ Based on mid-resolution imagery, it’s evident that on May 24th, at least one train was traveling on the new railroad. With the aid of satellite imagery captured with a time gap, we confirmed that the train was in motion and not static.5/ The current resolution does not allow us to determine whether it was another “test” train or if it’s a train involved in railroad construction. However, based on other high-resolution imagery, we assume that this is the very final stage before its launch6/ Our team assesses that this new railroad would suffice to supply the region even if the Crimean Bridge is destroyed. Additionally, the railroad reduces travel time from Russia. For more details on the impact and deeper assessment, refer to our latest report on our website7/ Thank you for reading. You can aid us with visibility by liking and sharing the opening message of the thread. You can also help with small donations or opt for a premium subscription to access more exclusive materials.
The Kupyansk front:
/2. The unknown technology worked as the cable ferry – a rope was stretched between two Russian positions and Russians pulled this bathtub from one side to another. Using this device Russians exchanged supplies and ammunition between two positions. https://t.co/wByWGeJHbG pic.twitter.com/AO6byLcLtU
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024
FPV attacks Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS from behind. Kupyansk front. https://t.co/6yUDJp716u
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
Russian BUK M1 air defence system. As claimed by the source it was destroyed by FPV drone 20km south from Melitopil, Zaporizhzhia region. Which is 100 km from the frontline. https://t.co/hrg8yb9zSV pic.twitter.com/Os1xYFjXqD
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024
Urozhaine front:
Repelling of the yesterdays Russian attack on Urozhaine front. https://t.co/jkfG08mNRs https://t.co/GFZpIr998E pic.twitter.com/gkhy1HVFf0
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 29, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
It’s been a long day. I’m going to get ready to rack out.
Manyakitty
@Adam L Silverman: sleep well and give the girls a few extra pets 🙂
Nukular Biskits
I’m old enough to remember when the US would lead the cause for freedom.
I support Biden but I simply can’t understand WTF is the logic here behind not giving Ukraine a greenlight to use US weapons and weapons systems on military targets inside Russia proper.
Nukular Biskits
Kudos, Adam.
And pets for the 4-legged young’uns.
Anonymous At Work
For future discussion, since I don’t think I’ve seen mention of it yet, but The Guardian is reporting that the FSB is launching major raids into the Russian MoD as a result of Shoigu’s ouster. Are we going to see FSB members join the Moscow Skydiving Club or are we going to see Russian generals replaced by experienced kleptocrats and grifters from outside the MoD?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/27/putin-patience-snapped-insiders-marvel-at-russia-military-purge?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-1
dimmsdale
@Nukular Biskits: Agreed. I keep wondering, “Does Jake Sullivan know something the rest of us don’t?” Like, what would be his specific concern as to what Russia would do, given strikes inside Russia proper, that justifies us watching Ukrainians being butchered like this? I’m assuming it’s only a matter of time until the US joins the rest of NATO in allowing strikes inside Russia, but why the delay?
Thanks, Adam, as always, and my appreciation to the regular crew of commenters as well.
Nelle
You all likely know this, but I was talking to a neighbor who works IT for John Deere. As soon as a John Deere machine crosses the border from Ukraine to Russia, they turn off all the cell connections that make it “smart.” He smiled and said, then the Russians have a big, dumb tractor.
Gin & Tonic
@Nelle: The story of John Deere tractors and Ukrainian software developers is a fascinating one, which this margin is too small to contain.
YY_Sima Qian
While the ASC90 is not the most powerful AWACS, it still gives the Ukrainian AF a new & potentially powerful capability in managing theater AD. However, it will also take the Ukrainian AF quite a while to train on the platform, integrate it into its forces, & develop/validate operational concepts & procedures that suit its OrBat & battlefield realities. The Ukrainian AF also needs the F-16s w/ Link 16 enabled to be fully exploit the technological capabilities of the platform.
Not sure why the US is so concerned w/ Link 16 tech falling into Russian hands, it is a 2 decades old data link system.
Ksmiami
Russia really needs to be pounded into ash for this. What a fucked up country
YY_Sima Qian
This is the inevitable medium to long term consequence of successive US Administrations/Congresses overusing sanctions & trade restrictions as tools of foreign policy, especially w/o any carrots to accompany the sticks to attempt to induce as well as compel the desired behavior:
Chinese companies, even the stated owned conglomerates that produce weapons, dual-use goods & civilian goods, will prize their access to Western markets much more than Russia/Iran/Venezuela/NK. However, since they are already sanctioned (some for decades) by the US, there is little incentive for them not to sell to Russia/Iran/Venezuela.
Now, the content of the article does not fully support narrative suggested by the headline. Only the export of “Tier 4” dual use goods (precision, computer controlled manufacturing equipment such as CNCs) to Russia saw an order of magnitude increase since Feb. ’22. Export of “Tier 1” (advanced electronic integrated circuits) dual use goods doubled or tripled, but from a very low base, Russia might still be getting them from the US & the EU via other middlemen. There has been little increase in “Tier 2” (radars, radio navigation gear, etc.) & “Tier 3” (bearing antennae, digital cameras, telescopic sights) dual use goods. Trade between the PRC & Iran/Venezuela/NK have slowly recovered in the past 4 – 5 years, but are still 50 – 66% off their peaks in the mid-’10s. Sino-Russian trade has expanded rapidly since Feb. ’22, but has also been following the trend line of exponential growth that predates the current invasion, & arguably at the macro level merely realizes the trade potential between 2 large & relatively diversified economies that border each other.
The PRC has been buying Russian, Iranian & Venezuelan hydrocarbons at step discounts to expand its strategic reserves, & likely conducting the transactions in Chinese Yuans.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
daveNYC
@dimmsdale: He probably has access to quite a bit of information we don’t have, but that doesn’t mean that the information is actually relevant to deciding whether or not to allow Ukraine to use US weapons to strike inside of Russia.
It’s just as likely that there’s one or more factions within State/DOD/NSA/whatever that have his ear and are chock full of stupid. Just look at all the various respectable foreign policy types who refused to believe that Russia would invade Ukraine and/or have refused to grasp what Russia’s goals are now and keep trying to fit things into their preferred framework.
Another Scott
@daveNYC: I continue to think that one of the biggest things behind US policies in Ukraine is keeping NATO unified. The US isn’t going to be a cowboy and get ahead of the consensus on what the rules of engagement, etc., are in the war. That means that things are going to move slower (because other members have to be convinced that they’re not getting too far ahead of their populations, they’re not enabling the far right to take over, etc.) than they would in a counter-factual world where the US could do whatever it wanted without worrying about access to bases, without worrying about politics in other countries, and all the rest.
The recent NATO PA meeting (which as I understand it, has no policy authority but rather is advisory) is helping to move the consensus forward.
Something, something, now make me do it. – FDR / Obama.
We’ll see.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
@Another Scott: I think that you’re right about why we have this restriction, but if we’re going to wait until Orban and Erdogan are willing to green-light shelling/bombing inside russia, it will never happen. Especially Orban, who has given many signs of being a russian sympathizer.
I don’t see how Ukraine ever prevails unless the restriction is lifted. I don’t think the Allies could have defeated Nazi Germany if they somehow weren’t allowed to bomb/shell inside German territory.
Another Scott
@Andrya: I think there will be continuing gradual lifting of restrictions, and ways around any intransigence by Orban and others (as there has been in various funding decisions), but it’s a process. And there are increasing bilateral agreements between NATO members and Ukraine, so those agreements can address any restrictions on use of the transferred weapons, also too.
But there may still be restrictions on how Ukraine can use some US weapons (there may be details in the transfer agreements that need to be addressed by legislation – who knows) that don’t apply to stuff that other countries already have (US export controls can be quite complicated). Remember the early issues about Swiss restrictions on weapons systems that have their components.
Politics often finds a way, but it’s a slow process.
We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, …
Good, good.
Cheers,
Scott.