Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Be a wild strawberry.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

When they say they are pro-life, they do not mean yours.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Celebrate the fucking wins.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about its history.”

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

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War for Ukraine Day 858: Russia’s War Against Nova Poshta Continues

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Graphic by NEIVANMADE of a Russian bomb with a "Z" symbol on it crashing through the roof of the Ukrainian Postal Service delivery hub. "Everyone Is a Target" and "Stop Russia" are written in the space between the destroyed roof and the fins of the bomb.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A couple of quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing fine. She’s got another week off before she starts round three. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, if you are, might be, could be in the path of Hurricane Beryl start making your preparations now. This includes where you’re going to go if you have to evacuate. Better the be ready and not need to do anything than not be ready and it becomes too late.

The Russians opened up again on Kharkiv today.

And once again they targeted a Nova Poshta facility:

Russian attacks on Nova Poshta facilities began right after Nova Poshta began opening more offices throughout the EU back in the late winter/early spring. Screwing up the mail is one way to terrorize Ukrainians, but apparently opening these stores in EU cities and expanding services to Ukrainians in exile from the war, as well as those wishing to support Ukraine by using Nova Poshta services, seems to have really pissed off someone in Moscow.

Kharkiv and the Nova Poshta facility was not the only civilian target that the Russians hit today.

Vilniansk, Zaporzhzhia Oblast:

Here’s the machine translation:

the Russian military hit the center of the city of Vilniansk, Zaporizhzhia region.

As of 20:15, 7 people died, including 2 children. Another 18 people, including 4 children, were injured.

As a result of the hits, commercial premises, houses and vehicles caught fire.

More after the jump.

Last night in comments BSChief asked:

A regular reader of your posts, this is my first time in comments, so apologies if this has been hashed through previously, but do you think there is any chance of North Korean troops fighting with the Russians in Ukraine?

First, thank you for reading. To answer your question, the reporting from earlier in the week is that the DPRK is sending a combat engineering unit to join with the Russians against Ukraine. What we don’t know is what size the unit will be – brigade, battalion, company, platoon, squad to use our nomenclature – and whether they will actually fight or just build something in the rear.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Medium Cool – Where’s Your Happy Place When It Comes To Music?

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Medium Cool is a weekly series related to popular culture, mostly film, TV, and books, with some music and games thrown in.  We hope it’s a welcome break from the anger, hate, and idiocy we see almost daily from the other side in the political sphere.

Arguments welcomed, opinions respected, fools un-suffered.  We’re here every Sunday at 7 pm.

As I added a Jimmy Buffett song in the comments of a post this morning I realized how good it was for my soul to hear some happy music.   After the week we’ve had, that was just what I needed.

So tonight let’s talk about where your happy place is when it comes to music.  Whether it’s reggae, hard rock or opera, to name a few, share some of the music that gives you energy, restores your balance,  feeds your soul, just makes you happy.

Include links if you can, but I know that’s harder on phones.  (At least it is for me!)

*If you like Jimmy Buffett, here’s a lovely introduction to the Jimmy Buffett video above, by grown-up Jimmy Buffett talking about the song, about making the video, and about what his life was like back then.  Actually, the intro is there whether you like Jimmy Buffett or not!

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Trump Sentencing Date Is About 10 Days From Now

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Life goes on – one thing I’ll say for this summer, it certainly hasn’t been quiet!

Trump’s sentencing date is July 11, just over 10 days from now.  I found the comment below, by lurker, really helpful, so I saved it for when we were a bit closer to sentencing time.

I looked for a good image to use for a Trump thread, and I decided on this one.

Trump Trial: NY Election Interference Case, Day 1

Promoted from the comments  (comment by lurker)

Partly this is collecting some of the sentencing/appeal comments into a thread … um … cuz?

There are a few points that seem to be coming up:

One, he may or may not go to prison immediately.  Judges have some discretion to allow someone to get their affairs in order in a gentlemanly way – this tends to be granted in white collar crime cases and much less so for violent offenses or drug crimes.  The court is mainly analyzing whether the convicted felon is a flight risk and a public safety risk.  Sadly, money is typically considered an indication of not being a flight risk, even though it might enable flight that a poor person could not achieve (like using a private plane, e.g.)

Two, the order on when to report is often stayed pending appeal based on the same kind of analysis – flight and public safety risks, and that order can be handed down by the trial-level judge (Judge Merchan in this case) or by the appellate level court if an appeal is filed and a stay is requested.

Realistically, Trump will not go to jail right away in this case regardless.

Third point – whether he goes to jail for contempt – hard to say what to make of it in terms of the initial sentence, it can be considered as part of the sentence for the conviction or considered separately, subject to the controlling statutes which seem to be somewhat lenient in NYS.  Any post-conviction contempt sentence could likely also be stayed and appealed.  However, the gag order was already upheld during the case in an appeal which happened in parallel with proceedings at the trial court, so the best chance he would have if he is sentenced to jail for contempt is to get the appeals court to say the jail order was reversed.  Contempt is supposed to alter future behavior as much as penalize past behavior, and here the future behavior is likely considered attenuated since the verdict has been reached. (Not saying that is correct, just where a court seems likely to go.)

Fourth point, probation can be very onerous or not very onerous – consider how many mob guys with organizational connections manage to deal with pretty light probation, versus onerous probation restrictions that seem to be designed to cause a probation violation and a sentence to jail/prison.  Trump is not likely to have a very onerous or burdensome set of restrictions unless he starts violating more court orders and probation restrictions – leading to the judge revising and tightening the restrictions.  This will not have an immediate effect in this case, but he seems to have the personality to get in trouble, combined with some fear of authority that kicks in to keep him safer from many more consequences.  Consider that he is not a defendant who has had outbursts in court – the judge did not have to tell him to stop yelling during court sessions, only to stop with the out-of-court behavior.  How that plays out on probation is hard to say and I am a little morbidly curious.

Fifth point (which is about six too many so far) is that he could get a suspended prison sentence with probation – this is commonly what someone gets in a situation like this – meaning that violations of probation (probably more than one) would lead to revocation of probation and immediate imposition of the otherwise suspended prison sentence.  A guy in Trump’s socioeconomic status tends to get a lot of leeway on this.

Sixth, Trump could also get a prison sentence with an offer of a shorter stay and then parole.  Parole is a post-incarceration option, and tends to mean a longer term of supervision in exchange for getting out early.  He is not likely to even get into this type of situation, but parole can be an even bigger challenge than probation, as the length of time and restrictions tend to be tougher.

Seventh, (probably about ten points to many now), he could opt to spend the time in prison while he appeals.  Notable examples of this were Martha Stewart and Barry Bonds, both of whom seemed to feel that taking the hit for serving their sentences (Stewart incarcerated briefly, Bonds on house arrest if I recall correctly) would be better than the public relations hit for staying out while on appeals at one level or another.  Bonds announced he would begin serving his sentence, it is not entirely clear if he did, but the sentence was mainly 30 days of house arrest and then _two_ years probation plus community service.  Bonds ultimately had his sentence overturned due to issues with whether he ever should have been prosecuted for perjury in the first place.

It is laughable that Trump would voluntarily serve his sentence before appealing to the US Supreme Court and what ever other court he could think of after that…

Ok, this was exhausting, hope it helps someone…

It helped me!  Open thread.

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Climate risk and reinsurance

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Earlier this month, Keys and Mulder released a new NBER working paper that builds a new property insurance data set and then seeks to project where premiums are likely to increase over time due to catastrophic claims risk.  Catastrophic claims are routinely insured via reinsurance.  For property damage, the major risk is storm and natural disasters risk.  It is mostly fire and hurricane risk.

Reinsurance has gotten expensive:

And these reinsurance costs are not uniformly spread out.  Michigan is not facing substantial new hurricane risk.

Actuaries, with long and varied lags, rule the world. When actuaries get scared, premiums spike and right now actuaries are terrified of climate risk.

And apropos of nothing, this update from the National Hurricane Center came in just after I got back from the gym with my 11 year old:

…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND BERYL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…
…LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING…

NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that Beryl has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1135 AM AST…1535 UTC…INFORMATION

Tropical weather Reddit is having kittens as this is the earliest Category 4 in the Atlantic and far further east than a storm of this magnitude “should” be. They’re looking at Beryl and saying it looks like an August or September storm rather than a June storm.

The actuarial fear is motivated by storms like these.

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I Started This Post 2 Months Ago and It’s as True Today – About Everything – As It Was Then

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What you see below is a post I started drafting 2 months ago on May 2.  I offer this post – not to talk abut the specifics of Gaza or Israel – but because it’s the perfect example of the current rules of the game.  The deck is stacked against us.  By people who are influenced by disinformation, by people who lie whenever they open their mouths, by the media.

The deck is stacked against us, but I still think we will win.  We do that, I think, by working hard and by tuning out all of the noise.

In 2007-08 when I was in Iowa volunteering for Obama, they wouldn’t let us do any sort of social media, and they worked us so hard morning and night that we didn’t have time to even hear the noise, let alone listen to it or be influenced by it.  There’s a lot to be learned from that, I think.

I don’t accept that Democrats are the only ones with agency, but I sure as hell think we need to be using ours.  We fight for Biden.  We fight for the House.  We fight for the Senate.  We do our thing, clear-eyed and focused, and let the chips fall where they may.

If we’re smart, we’ll save our energy for the fight, and not spend it on infighting.

Anyway, here’s the post I started then, useful as evidence of the rules of the game.

I hate what’s happening to the people in Gaza.

I have trouble making sense of the decision not to vote for Biden because of it.

I see that I’m not the only one.

Full text of the tweet.

Auto Draft 99
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Getting Over The Finish Line Open Thread

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This is an open thread, but with some updates.

 If you’re not interested in the fundraising efforts, skip the updates and jump right to the comments.

Update on Worker Power Leadership School

We’re not matching in the usual way in the final push to fund a student at the Worker Power Leadership School,  but we are matching!

At the end of the last Angel match, we needed $1,524 to get to $13,500 in the thermometer,   And as soon as the thermometer hits $13,500, the “$500 bonus Angel” from last week will add the final $1,500 – taking us to the $15k goal.

So we are effectively matching the donations, and we’re matching any amount – until the thermometer shows $13,500 – but we’re not tracking individual donations so you don’t need to tell us about your donation in the comments unless you want to help inspire other folks to donate, too.

All matching stops the second the thermometer hits $13,500.  (Then our “$1,500 bonus Angel” will add the final $1,500!

As I write this, $1,349 will get us to $13,500.

Update on NC Black Alliance

Had a great meeting with the NC folks on Friday!  Truly kindred spirits.

We are focused on targeted and strategic fundraising; they are equally focused on strategy and data as they choose where to put their efforts with youth engagement in North Carolina.  So excited to have found this group and to be able to support them.

I would venture a guess that they are equally excited about partnering with us, and are very happy that we knocked on their (virtual) door.

Open thread.

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Sunday Morning Open Thread: Madam Vice-President Kamala Harris

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Jennifer Rubin, a week ago — “A closer look at Harris shows how effective she’s become”: [gift link]

On Friday [June 21], after the Supreme Court issued its latest batch of opinions, I spoke briefly on the phone with Vice President Harris. After several days spent attending her appearances, it had become obvious to me that far from being a liability, as her critics insist, she is an effective communicator and skilled advocate — especially on causes on which she has developed expertise over decades.

Given the recent court scandals, I asked her about ethics reform. Even when in the Senate, she recalled, she supported a code of ethics for the Supreme Court. “The reasons are more evident today, ” she said. She pointed to blindfolded Lady Justice. “This is how ingrained it is in our system of justice,” she added. “I’m concerned there has been loss of confidence” in the court, Harris said, highlighting not only ethics concerns but also the extreme ideology of a court that has shredded precedent.

From there she spoke passionately about her work since Dobbs to defend reproductive freedom. According to her office, since that decision, she has delivered scores of speeches and held more than 90 gatherings in 21 states (as well as convening groups at the White House) to discuss reproductive freedom with elected officials, health-care providers, faith leaders, students, and advocates. On her Fight for Our Freedoms College Tour, beginning in 2023, she raised the issue at college campuses.

Harris told me her campus visits have been standing room only, with overflow rooms. “Students stood in line for hours,” she said, “not for a rock concert, but to have a conversations with the vice president.” Contrary to the impression that Gen Z voters are disengaged, she came away “inspired” and more certain that they will mark a “sea change” in politics. Guns, abortion rights and climate are not academic issues to this generation. “It is a lived experience. In the height of their reproductive years, the Supreme Court took away the right to make decisions about their own body. . . . They understand we need practical solutions.”…

Political media largely underplays the vice president’s role in the campaign and specifically her task in reaching out to critical Democratic constituencies. But her political strength is not lost on the Biden team — as a senior aide exiting the gate on Monday acknowledged to me — which now deploys her during event-packed weeks. This past week alone, Harris’s schedule included a quick trip to Switzerland; her Monday event; a gun-safety appearance and Juneteenth celebration in Atlanta; abortion events back in D.C.; and finally, a New York speech to the largest hospitality union.

As is true with the entire campaign, the voters most enthusiastic about Harris are those who are most engaged. Now, the campaign must ensure the entire electorate gets to see what those watching her up close have observed: a formidable candidate.

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