Quick housekeeping note: Today and tomorrow are exceedingly busy for me. I’ve got a bunch of stuff stuff and family stuff and the usual things you didn’t expect stuff. The rest of the week isn’t much better. Anyhow, I’ll not be around in comments and the post are likely to be more bare bones than usual.
As we began discussing in comments, because the news started trickling out after I posted the update, the Ukrainians hit the Kerch Bridge late last night/early this morning.
Photos from the site of a reported explosion on the bridge. The Mash Telegram channel says there were two explosions about 20 minutes apart. One span was reportedly destroyed. 2/https://t.co/dwuueo24UOhttps://t.co/KjxV1jJaD6 pic.twitter.com/Fm1YlLi3bm
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 17, 2023
We’ll have more after the jump.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukraine, UN and Türkiye can jointly ensure operation of food corridor and inspection of vessels – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
17 July 2023 – 22:35
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you good health!
First. Today, I held a conference call – substantive reports. Front, security, supply of rounds. Commanders, SSU chief, intelligence chiefs – defense and foreign intelligence, minister of internal affairs, Defense Ministry. We do everything in detail and every day so that our soldiers have everything they need for active operations.
Second. I thank each of our rescuers, each policeman, each volunteer, and each doctor who save our people after Russian shelling. Today’s terrorist attacks on Sumy region, Kharkiv region, Donbas, Kherson region, and Zaporizhzhia will not go unanswered by our soldiers for sure.
Third. Food security. We are preparing a conversation with Mr. UN Secretary General…
Ukraine’s position has always been and will be as clear as possible – no one has the right to destroy the food security of any nation. If a bunch of people somewhere in the Kremlin think that they supposedly have the right to decide whether food will be on the table in different countries: Egypt or Sudan, Yemen or Bangladesh, China or India, Türkiye or Indonesia… then the world has an opportunity to show that blackmail is not allowed to anyone.
From the first day of the full-scale aggression, Russia destroyed navigation freedom in the Black and Azov seas. Russia hit our ports, grain terminals with missiles and drones, and even granaries were hit… The only possible consequence of this is the destabilization of food markets and social chaos in the countries critically dependent on food imports. Ukrainian food is basic security for four hundred million people…
Last year, the world took the right action regarding the Russian threat to food security – together with Türkiye and the UN, we launched the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Its results are eloquent – almost 33 million tonnes of agricultural products were exported to 45 countries. Sixty percent of the volumes went to the countries of Africa and Asia, in particular, these are Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan… They also were sent to China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen… And it is very important – our food export allows saving lives in the countries, as I said, like Yemen and Somalia… different people… of different religions, different ethnic origins… But they all have the same right to life!
In addition to export, we also launched the Grain from Ukraine humanitarian initiative. Thirty-four donor states joined it. And I thank every donor who helped save people from starvation, primarily in African countries.
Everyone has a right to stability… Africa has the right to stability. Asia has the right to stability. Europe has every right to stability. And therefore, we must all care about security – about protection from Russian madness. And the Black Sea Grain Initiative can and should keep operating – if without Russia, then without Russia. The agreement on the export of grain – this is an agreement with Türkiye and the UN – remains valid. The only thing that is needed now is its careful implementation – and decisive pressure from the world on the terrorist state.
I have sent official letters to President of Türkiye Erdoğan and UN Secretary General Guterres with a proposal to continue the Black Sea Grain Initiative or its analog in a trilateral format – as it is best. Ukraine, the UN and Türkiye can jointly ensure the operation of the food corridor and the inspection of vessels. It is necessary for everyone in the world – and everyone who supports it will become a savior of life in a huge territory from Morocco to China, from Indonesia to Lebanon.
One more.
I want to especially thank Sweden. Our Swedish friends have approved a strategy to help Ukraine, in particular with reconstruction… a strategy until 2027. This is very important – signals of long-term support. Support for life, restoration of life, support for the fact that Russian terror will clearly lose. Mr. Prime Minister Kristersson, the entire Government of Sweden, everyone in Sweden – I thank you very much!
Glory to everyone who helps us defend ourselves from Russian terror! Glory to each of our warriors! Glory to our beautiful people!
Glory to Ukraine!
.
We still have a very, very difficult path to go to liberate our entire territory from the occupation, but let's not forget how it all begins, how it all started, and what Ukrainians have managed to overcome. pic.twitter.com/P87lX73KIq
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 17, 2023
9 years have passed since the #MH17 terrorist act was carried out by russian forces.
298 innocent lives were lost.
We will never forget.
All perpetrators of this crime will face justice. pic.twitter.com/p05OwsaRmh— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 17, 2023
9 years ago, a Russian Buk missile launcher from Russia's 53rd Air Defense Brigade shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, killing all 298 people abroad. We tell the story of how we found out who did it in Bellingcat's 6 part MH17 podcast https://t.co/lJe5K3K9te
— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) July 17, 2023
More on the Kerch Bridge:
Crimea bridge is not in the best shape. pic.twitter.com/w3Z4FOKddb
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 17, 2023
That’ll buff right out.
Photos of the bridge. 4/https://t.co/pWitIYE04r pic.twitter.com/uFZIIFHtb3
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 17, 2023
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 17, 2023
New satellite imagery collected by @Maxar reveals the damage to Russia's illegal Crimea Bridge after this morning's attack. Our @FT story on it here: https://t.co/80WYLdw59l pic.twitter.com/Ot8JChv7JC
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 17, 2023
Russian media report 5-km-long traffic jam between UA's Russian-occupied Crimea in direction of Melitopol, in Russian-occupied part of Zaporizhzhya Oblast. Melitopol is 70 km from front line, and is where E105 road to Crimea meets E58, leading along Azov Sea coast to Russia. pic.twitter.com/NCbIF0IVCu
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) July 17, 2023
From The Financial Times:
Moscow-installed authorities in Crimea have halted traffic on the bridge connecting the occupied peninsula to Russia after a Ukrainian attack that caused parts of it to collapse early on Monday, killing two people.
A Ukraine intelligence source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the SBU — the country’s security service — and its naval forces were behind the assault.
It is the second Ukrainian attack on the bridge — which carries road and rail traffic and was opened with great fanfare by Russian president Vladimir Putin in 2018 — dealing another humiliating blow to the Kremlin’s prestige, and possibly to its ability to supply troops occupying Ukraine’s southern regions.
Putin vowed to respond to the attack on the bridge and said the defence ministry was working on proposals for actions that Russia could take.
Viacheslav Gladkov, governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, said a man and a woman from the region had been killed in the explosion. Their 14-year-old daughter was in hospital in a stable condition.
Artem Dekhtiarenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s SBU, said that details of the operation would only be revealed “after our victory”.
“Meanwhile, we are watching with interest as one of the symbols of Putin’s regime once again failed to withstand the military burden,” he added.
Mash, an online news outlet with close ties to Russia’s police, posted videos showing that one span on the bridge had collapsed and another had begun to sink into the waters of the Kerch Strait below.
It said investigators had found traces from jet skis near the site of the explosion and claimed Ukraine had begun to use them as explosive-carrying underwater drones.
Much more at the link!
So – the complete disruption of the Crimean bridge is more than real, possible, and effective.
The railway line between mainland Russia and occupied Crimea (a vital military line of communications) is now going to be a top-tier target in this naval drone war in the Black Sea.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 17, 2023
The number of potential «domestic» summer tourist destinations for russians is falling. With alarming regularity.
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 17, 2023
Kreminna:
KREMINNA AXIS /1940 UTC 17 JUL/ Russian forces have opened a wide offensive operation across the O-131306 Road axis. UKR forces report that RU probes were repelled at Novovodiane, Makiivka, Novoliubivka, Nevske, Terny, Yampolivka, Torske and west of Dibrova and Bilohorvika. pic.twitter.com/gs9duinXan
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 17, 2023
Dovhenke, Karkhiv:
Crater.
Dovhenke, Kharkiv region. Due to constant russian shelling, all residents of this village were forced to leave their homes.📷Oleg Petrasyuk / EPA / Scanpix / LETA pic.twitter.com/xT3KoYvp7d
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 17, 2023
Yeisk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
A Russian source associated with the Russian military aviation reports the crash of the Su-25. At the same time, Russian media reported that the inhabitants of Yeysk saw a falling plane. pic.twitter.com/ih7NxWjEJ3
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 17, 2023
/3. A short video of the Su-25 crash in the sea near Yeysk. The pilot is also visible. pic.twitter.com/hg8a226W4U
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 17, 2023
/4. The pilot of Russian Su-25 died. Initially, there were reports that he broke his legs on the water and was in critical condition due to the fact that he got tangled in the parachute lines and almost drowned. But then reports about pilots death appeared.
Plus more detailed… pic.twitter.com/lpCRHh463R— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 17, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
rikyrah
Thank you for this post. After hearing about the bridge, and Putin’s decision to do a 180 on the grain, I have been wondering.
Steeplejack
Broken margin at the bottom of Zelenskyy’s address. The Twitter link needs to be an actual hyperlink, not just text.
Alison Rose
Unfortunately, putin seems eager to unleash a new Holodomor on anyone and everyone he can. There is no synonym of evil strong enough to describe him.
I hope they keep going after the Kerch until it fully collapses into the water. A truly beautiful sight it would be to behold.
Something sweet: This soldier’s doggos were pretty damn happy to see Dad again.
Thank you as always, Adam. Best of luck with all forms of stuff you’ve got going on.
sab
Big WTF from cable news all day. ” You bombed his vanity bridge. This will offend Putin, ” and that could get bad.
The two countries are at war on each of their borders. Putin’s guys bombed Zeleskey’s home town where his parents live. They repeatedly bomb the capital of his country.This is way past personal feelings.
Are day time reporters trapped reporting from day care in DC.?
I was amazed that finally at 2 or 3 pm Andrea Mitchell finally sounded like a normal person about this : this country has been invaded so of course they blew up a bridge when that could help them strategically.
Kelly
Photo of Putin’s staff meeting on the newest Kerch Bridge strike
https://nitter.net/peterodwyerukr/status/1680794936290017281#m
dmsilev
@sab: I mean, of course the Ukrainians are going to hit that bridge as often as they reasonably can. It’s an enormously important supply route for a large chunk of the Russian invasion force. It takes a certain special …something to get bothered by that.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
I always thought that the UA strategy with this offensive was a repeat of Kherson: move the orcs into a tight space, cut off the bridges and then play the obligatory HIMARS song until done. Crimea having the added benefit of having zero fresh water.
Is UA trying to cut Kerch early to disrupt supplies, then? Trap RU civilian “looters”?
Anonymous At Work
Any news on the attack on Sevastopol? I read about possible multiple air/sea drones attacking.
Kelly
I’ve read reports that Russian civilians fleeing Crimea have caused traffic jams on the route north of the sea of Azov. Might be a bit of a logistics headache for Russia.
The scorch marks visible from photos over the bridge suggest the explosion was next to a support pillar. Perhaps more to fix than the bridge deck.
Jay
oldster
@Kelly:
That photo gave me a good laugh!
oldster
From the Financial Times story:
“Mash, an online news outlet with close ties to Russia’s police, posted videos showing that one span on the bridge had collapsed and another had begun to sink into the waters of the Kerch Strait below.”
I would like that to be true, but it is certainly not what the available footage shows, whether footage from the train or satellite pics. They show that one of the two roadways has been shoved sideways about 5-10 feet, enough to make it totally unusable. The other roadway is scorched and probably loosened from its supports, but resting more or less in its original position.
But none of the satellite photos show a span of the bridge sinking into the water.
If the Mash report is correct, then photos tomorrow will show a different picture. Let’s hope it will
ETA: Also: jet-skis??? Come on, who are you trying to kid. It’s several hundred miles to the Kerch Bridge from the nearest Ukrainian port. Nobody jet-skied around Sevastopol.
WaterGirl
@sab:
I guess genocide doesn’t count as bad?
oldster
@WaterGirl:
It’s so infuriating — it’s the same abuse-response that US media has to the Republicans. “Don’t make them mad, or they might do something really bad this time!”
But they already do bad things. All the time.
“But they might beat us!”
They already stage pep-rallies to gin up hatred of the media, and send their thugs to beat you. The governor of Montana literally body-slammed a reporter. You think you can appease them?
Putin and republicans — thugs who cannot be appeased, and must be faced down, with force.
Kelly
@oldster: More or less in the original position is unlikely to be reliable with reinforced concrete bridge spans.
Bill Arnold
@oldster:
It really is Vova P’s pet bridge. Either he or a body double drove a truck across it in 2018 to open it.
Russian state media hail bridge across Kerch strait as ‘construction of the century’ (Andrew Roth, 15 May 2018)
Jay
@oldster:
NAFO funded one of the UA’s drone boats.
It’s named “Raccoons Revenge”.
They are hoping it was used and gearing up to fund another through United 24.
Geminid
@rikyrah: Putin and his cronies have pissed and moaned about the Black Sea Grain Initiative every time it has come up for renewal. This may turn out to be more of the same.
Turkiye holds some high cards here, and their President said that if his Foriegn Minister cannot work this out with Putin’s, he may call Putin to resolve the matter “if neccesary.”
Last October, after an attack on Sevastopol by Ukrainian sea drones, Russia said it had suspended the Initiative. Then Turkiye announced that another convoy was sailing, and President Erdogan and his Defense Minister both told reporters that continuation of the grain shipments was “a vital national interest.” Russia rejoined the deal with so much grumbling.
Under the terms the UN and Turkiye worked out in agreements with Russia and Ukraine, Russia has a role inspecting grain ships on their way in and out of the Turkish Straits. They have abused that role to impede shipments, so the flow of grain would probably improve without Russian involvement. Maritime insurers might be reluctant to insure ships if Russia does not assent to their passage, but Ukraine’s parliament has established a $500 million indemnity fund with this eventuality in mind.
President Zelenskyy met with President Erdogan on July 8 in Istanbul, and there are reports that Erdogan promised the Ukrainian leader that the Turkish Navy would escort the grain ships if the Initiative was not renewed. These stories have not been confirmed, though.
oldster
@Kelly:
Oh, absolutely. The structure is compromised and the bridge is not safe for traffic.
But that’s different from “one span collapsed and another sinking into the water.”
With the earlier strike on the Kerch Bridge, two spans actually did sink into the water, when the ends of the spans were knocked clean off their piers.
I hope that the Mash report is referring to developments that occurred after the satellite photos were taken. But the photos that we have now do not show what they report.
Kelly
The pattern of the scorch marks and damage has me suspecting the drone boat was right next to the bridge pier when it detonated. Could be some structural damage to the pier.
oldster
@Jay:
Is that right? Bravo, NAFO! The destruction of expansion-joints is non-negotiable!
I suspect that this is the first time in history that a major weapon of war has been financed by a bunch of cartoon Shiba Inu’s.
oldster
@Kelly:
Agreed. I’m no demolition expert or structural engineer, but that’s how it looks to me, too, and I hope the damage will be very hard to fix.
Kelly
@oldster: My explosives experience is limited to helping guys that knew what they were doing blow stumps with dynamite and fertilizer. Summer job back in the 1970’s.
Jay
@oldster:
Nope, NAFO has funded drones, armed drones, night vision gear, IR scanners, trucks, ambulances, a bunch of other stuff like sniper rifles, and even bought some APC’s and IFV’s from various British and European “military surplus” companies.
Along with a whole “name my rocket” program to fund missiles and shells for Ukrainian, Georgian and International units, plus the TDF units.
dmsilev
@oldster:
I have it on good authority (*) that the construction of HMS Dreadnought and the Manhattan Project were both funded through that mechanism.
(*) I just now made that up.
Captain C
@sab:
The correct answer to that is “so?”
What war are these idiots watching? Sparkle Ponies vs. Care Bears in a marshmallow fight?
@dmsilev:
Is there a long German word for preemptive performative outrage on behalf of some asshole like Putin?
Captain C
@Captain C: So, using google translate, we come up with:
präventiveperformative empörungimnamene inesarschlochswieputin
oldster
@Captain C:
Though the Germans usually just shorten that to:
Gerhard Schroeder.
Subsole
So two things:
1. Bond-o. Lots of Bond-o.
2. It is kind of insane to me that the Russians are still using the Frogfoot. That thing has to be, what, 30 years old by now? 40? I mean, the Abrams is about 40, right?
A question for Adam: is that normal, military platforms serving that long? Not just Russia, but in general.
Gin & Tonic
@oldster:
One of my relatives knows a lot of people. He’s suggesting that Budanov has reliable assets on the russian side of the strait.
oldster
@Gin & Tonic:
Jay already linked to Budanov’s official statement on comment #10.
You can see there that he confesses that the hit was executed by Shiba Inu’s on water-skis, towed by raccoons on jet-skis.
Jokes aside — I’m sure Budanov has assets on both sides of the strait. He’s an extremely effective operator.
OB-118
@Subsole: Currently a fair number of weapons systems are decades old, such as B-52 bomber, C-130 transport, M1 Tank, TOW anti-tank guided missile, a couple of US Navy aircraft carriers. Part of the changes and improvements now days is in electronics and software which is easier to swap out on a weapons system as opposed to engines and guns.
Carlo Graziani
@dmsilev:
“The problem with quotes that on finds on the Internet is that it can be extremely difficult to verify their attribution.”
— Abraham Lincoln
[Seen on a University of Chicago coffeeshop wall, circa 2005. Possibly.]
Carlo Graziani
WG, the very long string in comment #27 is messing up display on phone/tablet devices. Could you, pretty please, insert a space in it?
Jay
@Subsole:
The A-10 is 51 years old.
Omnes Omnibus
@OB-118: You can also swap out engines and gun barrels. In the late ’80s/early ’90s, my battalions howitzers were originally put into service in the ’50s. Most of them, except for a couple of pigs that broke down constantly, worked perfectly. Call it 21 out of 24 guns just needed routine maintenance. They were phasing our guns out to be replaced by MLRS, so the problem guns weren’t given the new engines that would have fixed everything.
OB-118
@Omnes Omnibus: Good point! That triggered in my old brain a memory that the Israelis swapped out the 75/76 mm gun on the M4 Sherman chassis with a 105mm gun, or took off the turret and put in a large caliber mortar. If the iron (or aluminum) frame is still solid, it can last for generations :-)
Jay
Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧
@DefenceHQ
14h
A war on healthcare is raging in Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the illegal invasion of 🇺🇦, Russian forces have deliberately targeted hospitals, healthcare facilities & healthcare workers, contrary to international humanitarian law.
🇺🇦#StandWithUkraine 🏥 #WarOnHealthcare
Roger Moore
@Subsole:
It’s normal for military platforms to last that long, at least the good ones. Just as an example, the F-16, which we’re constantly talking about sending to Ukraine, had its first flight about a year before the Su-25. The F-15 is a few years older than that. Then there’s really ancient stuff like the B-52 and Tu-95. Heck, the C-130 first went into service 20 years before the Su-25, and it’s still in production!
Steeplejack
@Carlo Graziani:
Fixed. Commenters can refresh the page to fix their margin.
kalakal
@Subsole: The AK-47 has been around a very
long time
Subsole
Thank you to everyone who responded.
So the Abrams could be in service a hundred years from now, assuming weapons tech remains more or less stable? That is amazing.
The idea of a Sherman with modern gunnery sounds faintly ludicrous. Was that actually a viable platform? Or more a case of “hey, we have a ton of these things surplus. Let’s upgun them and use them in backline formations we hope aren’t going to see a T-72”?
I suppose I am wondering how anomalous the constant churn of the Cold War was, and what military development looks like without that pressure. Like, do we see countries using F-16s a hundred years from now? It would be sort of funny if the Falcon became the 21st century version of the MiG 21.
What does the 21st century look like? Does it shake out to where the USAF is flying 75 year old F-35s, while developing nations are using ancient stuff like F-16s? Where does China fit into this? Or Russia?
Carlo Graziani
Only if they replace the powerplant with something that doesn’t burn four gallons of jet fuel per mile.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: dunno, if we’re still at that point of industrial civ in the 22nd century, I’d bet we’ve solved the production of long-chain hydrocarbons from CO2 and H2O, and we’re using jet fuel simply b/c it’s high energy density and easy to store & transport.
But you’re right in the larger context, that to *keep* using jet fuel for transport will require civilization-changing innovations and inventions.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: The real question will be whether somebody comes up with better armor, I think. Something that can withstand greater impacts for the same or lighter weight. That’d invalidate the entire design of current-modern tanks.
Subsole
@Carlo Graziani: I am reliably informed that plutonium has the electrolytes that (power)plants crave…
Subsole
@Chetan Murthy:
How so? It seems either better protection for less weight, or more protection for equivalent weight, would actually increase the viability of modern tanks, no?
The tank either carries more protection and becomes harder for other platforms (including infantry) to kill, or carries better weapons and systems with the saved weight, making it more lethal.
How does tank design change with the new armor material? Won’t form pretty much follow function regardless of the material employed?
Jay
@Subsole:
Israel was limited early on in military supplies.
So they bought a bunch of WWII Shermans that had been “gifted” to European Nations, that had become surplus as those Nations rearmed.
They were bought as “scrap”, upgunned with the British 105mm, up armoured, re-engined with a Detroit Diesel, and more modern sights, and became the “Super Sherman”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Sherman
In combat against the Arab armies, the M-51 proved itself capable of fighting newer, heavier tanks like the Soviet-built T-54/55/T-62. The M-51’s 105 mm gun could penetrate these adversaries using HEAT ammunition. The M-51 served well during its time, and is regarded as an excellent example of how an obsolete tank (the Sherman) can be upgraded beyond the limits of its original capabilities.[12]
Chetan Murthy
@Subsole: Sorry, what I meant was, if somebody comes up with a revolution in armor technology, that would be cause for replacing Abrams tanks — b/c you can’t exactly retrofit the armor — that’s the “body” of the tank, right? That wouldn’t invalidate the idea of tanks, but rather, make it necessary to make a new design. It’s at least *possible* that the same isn’t true for powerplant tech: you could replace the turbine and gas tanks with some new powerplant. Ditto the gun. But the armor itself? It seems unlikely that you could retrofit that, unless it were some small change.
Jay
@Subsole:
The Tank Museum answers the question.
-better armor
-better gun ( and targetting)
-better mobility
It’s a constant evolution ongoing against better anti-tank weapons.
The Leopard II isn’t the best armored tank out there, but is extremely fast, great with terrain, highly maneuverable, and has a great gun, amazing stabilization and brilliant targeting systems.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: At risk of an amateur-hour entry into the “is the tank obsolete” debate: I think it’s likely that swarms of cheaper, lightweight, ground-hugging (possibly fan-skirted) semi-autonomous missile platforms will make it extremely hazardous for any manned armored vehicle to venture into a battlefield.
Geminid
@Subsole: The Korean K-2 tank is an interesting entry in the current tank generation. Poland took delivery of 80 last fall, and that country’s President praised the maker for its ability to fill large orders fast. Poland has ordered 900 K-2s, many of which will be produced in Poland. They’ve ordered a few hundred Abrams tanks as well, with the first group delivered a few weeks ago.
Korea is a hilly country, and the K-2 has an interesting feature. Since the powerful 120mm gun doesn’t allow for much vertical movement, the K-2 has a chassis that can lean forward so as to shoot down or crouch back to shoot up, kind of like one those “lowrider” automobiles.
And it’s a Hyundai!
Hangö Kex
The Black Sea Grain Initiative might be saved yet as as Russia’s complaints about its own grain and fertilizer exports are being worked on:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/un-chief-sends-putin-proposal-keep-black-sea-grain-deal-alive-2023-07-12/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-is-russias-problem-with-black-sea-grain-deal-2023-06-16/
Apparently, the thing is that while Russia’s exports of grain and fertilizer are not under sanctions as such they have trouble getting paid due to Russian banks having been cut out of SWIFT. Also, there is an ammonia (which used to make fertilizer) pipeline from Russia running trough Ukraine which is (quite understandably) not operational. Since the point of the deal was to avoid pushing up food prices which would create hardship or even famine in the poorest countries it would seem that such Russian concerns that actually affect the global supply of food (directly or indirectly trough fertilizer availability) ought to be resolved (which the U.N. has been trying to do).
Otoh, one suspects that reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT as demanded could be used to circumvent sanctions; fortunately there are other arrangements for payment either proposed* or already in place**. As for the ammonia pipeline there is a scheme in the works which would have the U.S.-headquartered commodities trader Trammo buy the ammonia as it crosses the border from Russia to Ukraine (from the Reuters explainer article, 2nd link above).
* “The United Nations is also working with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) to create a platform to help process transactions for Russian exports of grain and fertilizer to Africa” (ibid)
** “U.N. officials got U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM.N to start processing some Russian grain export payments with reassurances from the U.S. government” (ibid)
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
missiles vs tanks has been run 8 times.
Each time the tank comes back.
a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)
@Subsole:
Wikipedia informs me that the B-52 had its first flight in April 1952, making it 71 years old, and that it entered service officially in 1955. The design work began in 1948 or thereabouts.
(Again, Wikipedia)
The last comprehensive upgrade was in 2013; starting in 2006, the Air Force began the work to fly these things on synthetic fuels.
So yeah, it’s conceivable that old airframes will be around for a very long time, as will other pieces of equipment, assuming they can be upgraded and adapted to future conditions. Given the extent to which we’re seeing drones of various types used in Ukraine, replacing something as expensive as an F-35 with an even more expensive F-whatever may not happen for a very long time.
YY_Sima Qian
@Hangö Kex: Pretty bland statement from Chinese MFA spokesperson in the daily press conference:
However, it is clearly in China’s interests (on multiple levels) that the Black Sea Grains Deal resume. China has remained the largest purchaser of Ukrainian grains, & a food crisis in the Global South does not serve Chinese preference for stability & predictability.
Given Putin’s lack of leverage, I think a solution will be found one way or another.