(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Russia is still capable of doing evil; we must make our state stronger every day – address by the President of Ukraine
15 November 2023 – 22:19
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
It was a rough day.
At night, there was a Russian missile attack on Selydove, Donetsk region. Right at residential buildings. Four missiles. There are dead. There are probably people under the rubble. The rubble is being cleared all day. All the wounded were provided with the necessary assistance. More than 20 houses were destroyed.
Another Russian strike hit Zaporizhzhia region, also with missiles. Among the dead are rescuers. They arrived at the scene after the first hit and started helping. And then there was a second strike. My condolences to all those whose relatives and friends were killed by Russian terror.
There was a lot of international communication today. Of course, first of all, about ways to provide more protection for Ukraine and all our people from these savages, from Russian missiles and shelling.
I spoke with Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni. I thanked Italy for its principled and powerful assistance to our country, for the protection of Ukrainian lives. Ukraine greatly appreciates that Italy stands with us at this moment. We also appreciate Giorgia’s personal energy, all the activity of Madam Prime Minister, with which she advocates for assistance to our country. We discussed our security cooperation and support packages. We exchanged views on the situation in Europe and the world. We also discussed some issues related to the new EU sanctions package. Italy will preside over the Group of Seven next year, and we are already working on the relevant priorities. Common priorities.
I spoke with President of Slovakia Zuzana Čaputová. I expressed gratitude for the support and fair recognition of Ukraine’s success in getting closer to the European Union – in our movement towards full membership. It is very important for our entire Europe to become stronger, and every state on the continent that respects the common rules of the EU will benefit from this. We discussed preparations of our energy sector for the winter and, as we expect, for the intensification of Russian terror against energy facilities. Of course, we also discussed economic issues that are important to our nations.
Today I also held talks with Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada. Defense support. Strengthening our air defense, our mobile fire groups and protection against Russian drones. There are specific agreements. I thanked Canada for its continued leadership in sanctions against Russia. There is a new and important Canadian initiative – a coalition of partners to return Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia. We also discussed the issue of completing the Holodomor Genocide Museum. Canada has agreed to help with this in Ukraine. I am grateful to Justin personally and to the entire Canadian society for such an understanding of Ukraine.
I also held several meetings today. I would like to mention a meeting with representatives of the law enforcement sector, including the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine. He reported on counteracting collaborators and protecting Ukrainians from those who deliberately incite hatred within our country.
I also had a meeting with the Minister of Defense and other government officials. All the key issues boil down to ensuring the protection of people, Ukraine’s ability to conduct offensive operations, and our ability to strengthen Ukraine – to overcome the accumulated problems.
Everyone in Ukraine must remember, especially those who have stopped noticing the war because they are fully focused on politics: Russia is still capable of doing evil. No one will be able to turn a blind eye. We have to fight. We must keep our defense as a top priority. And we must make our state stronger every day.
Glory to all those who care about Ukraine and Ukrainians!
Glory to Ukraine!
Earlier today Ukraine’s Minister of Defense met with the US Ambassador to Ukraine:
I was glad to meet with @USAmbKyiv Bridget Brink.
Briefed the Ambassador about ongoing and planned reforms in the defence sector, including the launch of transparent procurement procedures, localization of defence production in Ukraine.
We discussed in detail our plans for… pic.twitter.com/KbdNWMo611
— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) November 15, 2023
I was glad to meet with @USAmbKyiv
Bridget Brink. Briefed the Ambassador about ongoing and planned reforms in the defence sector, including the launch of transparent procurement procedures, localization of defence production in Ukraine. We discussed in detail our plans for bilateral cooperation, as well as areas and ways of further US assistance to Ukraine.
And whenever I can I highlight all the foreign aid that goes from the US, the EU, and NATO to Ukraine. What we don’t normally pay attention to is what those numbers look like comparatively. Both in terms of what has been provided to Ukraine and in comparison between Ukraine and Russia. Here’s the tail of that tape.
Struggle for resources
When Ukrainians say that we need more weapons, the West often thinks that it is a sign of ingratitude.
In fact, Ukrainians are grateful, but there is another side – how many weapons your enemy supplies to the front.
This thread will explore this topic 1/ pic.twitter.com/C6ZF0Ax8FL— Volodymyr Dacenko (@Volodymyr_D_) November 13, 2023
Here’s the full graphic:
Here’s the rest of the thread from the Thread Reader App:
2/ Russia
Many people look down on the Russian army after its defeats in Ukraine in the first year of the war.
But the Russian doctrine is based on the fact that Russia is able to withstand heavy defeats and incredible losses, but not to give up its political goals.3/ Ru is still a significant power, if not in terms of the quality of weapons, but in terms of their quantity.
Since the beginning of the war, Ru has removed approximately 6,000 howitzers from its storage facilities.4/ This number allowed Russia to compensate for the huge losses from the HIMARS counter-battery and the wear of the barrels due to the frantic pace of fire.
No other country could compensate for such losses.5/ Russia also removed approximately 1,000 self-propelled guns and 500 MLRS from their warehouses. In total, this is 7.5 times greater than the volume of artillery supplied by the West. And even so, Russia does not have an advantage in artillery now6/ The supply of Russian artillery is running out. After all, Russia has probably removed most of the relatively modern artillery systems from storage.
7/ Restoration of tanks, armored vehicles and self-propelled guns is somewhat more difficult, because it requires restoration of engines, control systems and other complex components.
According to media estimates, Russia supplies up to 100 tanks to the front every month.8/ Ru planned to reach the rate of 130 tanks per month, but faced technical problems. At the beginning of the year, it became known that Ru restored three times less T-62 tanks than planned. Probably because of this, the Ru had to get the “Stalin’s tank” T-54/55 to light.9/ Russia is not limited in the resource of tanks and armored vehicles, because it has a lot of them in warehouses. But Ru is limited in the possibility of their restoration. Therefore, it is not beneficial for Russia to increase the dynamics of the war.10/ Putin needs the war to be slow and long, so that he can wait for the West to tire of supporting Ukraine and achieve his goals – to approve the occupation of the south and east of Ukraine and prepare for new wars.11/ Now about supply to Ukraine:
In general, we see that the West’s efforts to supply heavy weapons were significantly greater in the first year and peaked in January-February 2023.12/ The further supply of weapons to Ukraine faced two main problems:
– lack of a clear strategy for supporting Ukraine after the start of the counteroffensive;
– blocking of funding due to political processes within countries.13The planning of support for Ua was based on the expectations of the West that the counteroffensive would become a certain starting point, after which the situation would change fundamentally and the war would either finally come to a stalemate, or Ru would lose its perspective14/ But after the start of the counteroffensive, a large number of unpredictable factors intervened in the situation.
1. The defense lines of the Russian army turned out to be much stronger than expected. This made the counterattack long and slow.15/ 2. North Korea began direct supplies of ammunition to the Russian Federation on a large scale, thereby postponing the collapse of Russian artillery.
3. The Armed Forces continue to inflict huge losses on Russia in active defense in the east.16/ After all, both sides still have the resources to continue the war, and its fate is as uncertain as it was a year ago.
Globally, the counteroffensive, at least not yet, has not brought fundamental change, and the West was clearly not ready for it.17/ When Zaluzhny talks about the “stalemate situation”, he is not talking about hopelessness, he is talking about the fact that changes are necessary.18/ A few important aspects:
1) Ukraine loses less equipment and Western equipment is more efficient. In general, the loss ratio is about 1/3. Therefore, it is not necessary to estimate the numbers in a straight line.19/ 2) The lack of one type of weapon can be compensated by other possibilities (for example, deep strikes, you can exhaust logistics, without which military equipment is not effective).20/ 3) Air supremacy remains Russia’s main advantage, which limits ground operations. Ukraine’s advantage in long-range artillery, on the other hand, compensates for the smaller number of weapons and limits the actions of the Russian army.21/ 4) Defense systems are becoming more and more effective. Minefields, FPV, ATM, etc. have become a significant factor that complicates the offensive (but does not make it impossible, if the conditions are there).22/ Obviously, Ukraine needs additional capabilities in addition to heavy weapons, as General Zaluzhnyi says. This is the ability to exhaust Russian logistics, counter Russian bombers and helicopters, counter enemy drones, etc.23/ Power parity is not hopeless, but it requires more effort. Ukrainians understand that in the future, Western partners will have to make greater sacrifices. But without this sacrifice, we will not defeat this threat to democracy that is gradually spreading around the world.24/ So when we say we need more guns, it doesn’t mean we’re ungrateful.
Thank you for everything you have done and will do again!
Dacenko’s assessment shows three very important thing. The first is no matter how much Russian military equipment and Russian troops destroyed by the Ukrainians, Russia still has deep reserves. They may not be of high quality, but they exist in quantity. The second is that no matter how much we think the US, the EU, and NATO has provided, it is but a tiny fraction of what we have in our stocks. Third, from reporting over the past 21 months, a lot of that reserve in the EU is inoperable. Yes, Dacenko’s graphic shows that about 270 Leopard tanks of both the 1A and 2A packages have been provided. But there’s a couple of thousand more that we know are sitting in warehouses, depots, and garages inoperable. That’s why it took so long to send the bulk of the Leopard 1As; they had to be refit and repaired. Even if the EU and NATO states wanted to send more, they can’t because what they have in stock aren’t battle ready. This is a problem not just for Ukraine, but for NATO. Similarly we have approximately 5,500 Abrams. We’ve sent 31. I’m not suggesting we empty out the armored divisions and I recognize this might not be the best tanks for use in Ukraine right now, but just 31? That’s the best we could do?
I know a lot of you think I sound like a broken record, but at every turn we’ve dribbled out the aid to Ukraine to slowly and in too small amounts. Then we pat ourselves on the back that by doing so we’ve attrited Russia’s army without spilling a single drop of American blood and for pennies on the dollar. But the real tail of the tape here is we’ve given Ukraine enough so that Ukraine won’t lose, but also so it is going to be very difficult for them to win. We can and should do better. We must do better.
Here’s Tatiana Stanovaya’s assessment of where things stand in the war for Ukraine:
Recently, Western media has been flooded with articles about a seemingly losing Ukraine. Some call for tougher strategies against Russia and in support of Ukraine, while others simply express pessimism and despondency. Frankly, the mood is becoming increasingly gloomy by the day.…
— Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya) November 13, 2023
Recently, Western media has been flooded with articles about a seemingly losing Ukraine. Some call for tougher strategies against Russia and in support of Ukraine, while others simply express pessimism and despondency. Frankly, the mood is becoming increasingly gloomy by the day. Simultaneously, there is talk that Putin is fortunate, with time on his side, unfolding exactly as he planned. All of this is quite understandable, but overly opportunistic.
In reality, the situation isn’t so joyful for Russia in the long term either.
1️⃣ First, it’s highly improbable that Putin’s expectations of Ukraine’s capitulation or the fall of its regime will be met. Time is not infinite for him either. He genuinely believes that Kyiv is doomed, but he cannot afford to wait years. Tactically, he may be winning, but strategically, his plan is also doomed: Kyiv will not capitulate under Russian conditions (for Putin, it’s not just a question of territory, but a matter of Ukraine’s future).
2️⃣ Second, no matter how much the West tires of Ukraine or how the dynamics change in Western political circles, it’s hard to envision the emergence of a viable political force that would advocate normalizing relations with Russia. Figures like Trump won’t side with Russia, though Moscow would find their rise convenient. Putin’s hope that a “pragmatic” and nationally oriented West will prevail and life will normalize is also unlikely to materialize. And even those who now push for peace talks with Moscow will be disappointed because Putin wants much more than peace – he wants a Ukraine that is friendly to Russia. Thus Russia, too, is doomed to live in a consistently hostile environment.
3️⃣ Finally, the war is undeniably draining Russia. Yes, it could last a long time, but at a colossal cost. Putin’s regime will slowly transform, society is changing too (generational shifts are inevitable), Putin himself isn’t immortal, and the elites will gradually play a more significant role. Even if Russia becomes more aggressive and hawkish in form, it might, over the years, become more pragmatic, less fixated on the messianic “rescue of the Ukrainian people,” as Putin does.
Considering all this, Ukraine and the West need to understand that they must also be patient and prepare for a long war. This is the reality. And it doesn’t necessarily mean that Putin will be victorious.
Avdiivka:
Tatarigami has a new assessment regarding Avdiivka and its strategic importance, which I know is a recurring topic of discussion in the comments. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
BBC published an article in Russian titled "Does it make sense for Ukraine to fight for Avdiivka?" In this article, several experts argue that Avdiivka lacks military significance. I disagree with this assessment, finding it misleading. Here's why. 🧵Thread:
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 15, 2023
2/ While I agree that the assault on Avdiivka likely has political reasons, as I discussed on the day the assault started, focusing solely on political aspects is not only inaccurate but also dangerous.3/ The article states, “Most experts agree that it has exclusively political, not military, significance for the Kremlin.”I strongly disagree with it – Avdiivka has played a key military role in Donetsk since 2014.
4/ On this map, I’ve marked potential routes and opportunities that could arise for russian forces in the event of Avdiivka falling. While it’s not an exact representation, it provides a general idea of the range of opportunities that may open up for Russian forces to advance5/ Avdiivka plays a key role in both defensive and offensive operations. Avdiivka denies Russian forces operational space and protects the flanks of logistical hubs.6/ While it’s accurate that Avdiivka may not be used as a foothold to assault Donetsk in the near future if an opportunity arises, Avdiivka will play a key role in successfully entering Donetsk. This essentially revisits the 2014 scenario with the potential for different outcomes7/ I agree with the analysts in this article emphasizing that Ukraine doesn’t need a second Bakhmut, especially in its late stage. Holding territory for political rather than operational necessity, when encirclement becomes imminent, can lead to avoidable losses.8/ Avdiivka’s military significance should not be dismissed since it serves as a barrier preventing Russian forces from entering the operational space towards Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Kostiantynivka, crucial nodes in Donetsk oblast.9/ The Russians underestimated Ukrainian forces in this attack, necessitating resource diversion from elsewhere for limited advances. Although immediate exploitation is doubtful, they can continue to expand by reallocating forces from other areas, replaced by newly formed units10/ If you find this thread useful, I kindly request you to like, follow, and share the first message in the thread.
My team is working on a big investigation thanks to the support received through Buy Me A Coffee – we always need your help and support.
Russian serviceman showing what's left of the "Msta-S" SPG system destroyed near Avdiivka around 21 October. pic.twitter.com/xnAs9ujGvI
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 15, 2023
Promotional video celebrating 1st anniversary of the 47th Motor Rifle Brigade. In August, they raised the flag over Robotyne, and today they're defending Avdiivka from the occupiers.https://t.co/vhSmWzOKtq pic.twitter.com/VtllCtzbR5
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 15, 2023
Klischiivka:
Russian troops have been trying to enter Klishchiivka for weeks but it all ends in a way similar to this footage. They are getting blown up by mines, ATGMs or artillery.
Source: https://t.co/iyhcqSpCJx#Ukraine #Bakhmut #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/X0ijGXFWVd
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 15, 2023
Kyiv to Irpin:
Remember this ill-fated bridge between Kyiv and Irpin?
They have built it back. Works have almost been completed, and they let the traffic in and out.
I've just driven over it, and there was an incredible feeling.
As if peacetime got back for a moment. pic.twitter.com/QRdGzYoB5l— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 15, 2023
Melitopol:
It actually says: “Let’s cleanse ourselves from imposed Ukrainian nazism.” Ethnic cleansing as official policy. https://t.co/GKJ15BojHO
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) November 15, 2023
Additional context: this Russian ad reads "Are you changing your passport? Change your last name too! Let's cleanse ourselves of imposed Ukrainian Nazism!"
Russian genocidal policies in action: pic.twitter.com/RiHuYjjP6G
— Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) November 15, 2023
Selydove, Donetsk Oblast:
Last night, Russia carried out a missile strike against a multi-story residential building in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, less than 25km from the frontline, and killed a civilian woman. pic.twitter.com/pfjJVKBaEu
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 15, 2023
Kharkiv and most likely other parts of Ukraine as well:
Russia's new tactics: over the last 10 days, there have been 5 air raids, each lasting 2+ hours, with the longest one lasting 3 hours and 30 minutes. Life pauses: schools and kindergartens head to bomb shelters, metro halts river crossings, and malls close. Long air sirens from… pic.twitter.com/VCJLQlYWz0
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 15, 2023
Russia’s new tactics: over the last 10 days, there have been 5 air raids, each lasting 2+ hours, with the longest one lasting 3 hours and 30 minutes. Life pauses: schools and kindergartens head to bomb shelters, metro halts river crossings, and malls close. Long air sirens from MIG planes with Kinzhal missiles keep everyone on exhausting alert, straining Ukrainian economy.
Teacher Natalya Omelchuk and her class tried going to the museum for two weeks. Today, they came again, but instead of the museum, they head to a place with a bomb shelter.
The Starlink Snowflake, who spent part of a day retweeting and supporting antisemites and neo-NAZIs and tweeting renewed attacks against the Anti-Defamation League, has thoughts on General Zaluzhnyi and President Zelenskyy:
Yes, fighting to keep Russians out of your country costs lives, but nothing compared to what happens once you're occupied by them.
Just ask Kherson, Mariupol, Bucha, Irpin, Izyum..mass graves, torture..
Or Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Czech, Poland, Hungary..mass graves torture
— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) November 15, 2023
Obligatory:
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Say cheese!
Photo for military ID.
📷: 22nd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/QiCtCck7ZQ
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 15, 2023
Open thread!
Jay
The world was shocked and mourned today when the news came out that Elon Musk, 54, was still alive.
Alison Rose
Sometimes it’s necessary to be a broken record, to ensure that people hear you. Every time I see some dumb poll saying that US citizens are “fatigued” with supporting Ukraine or whatever, I think 1) Imagine how the fucking Ukrainians feel, you ignorant coddled child, and 2) If we’d stepped up and given them everything we could early on, things would probably look a lot different right now. If people here are tired of thinking about the war, they can thank putin and themselves for the fact that they still have to.
Zelenskyy also had a meeting with journalists from eleven African countries. The video isn’t subtitled, but it’s good to see this, since I know some parts of Africa are subjected to russia’s disinfo. In a post from The Kyiv Independent, they quoted him as saying: “If there is a stalemate and a frozen conflict, we have to honestly say that our children, or our grandchildren, will have to fight. We’ve already lost too many people. Do we want to live like this, knowing that we will raise children who will certainly have to fight?”
Thank you as always, Adam.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Yay Canada! Can’t help myself. Especially when our prime minister is getting attacked for daring to ask Israel to stop killing children & babies. Since when is that a controversial position?😠
Thanks again, Adam. I share your frustration at the rate supplies have been trickling into Ukraine. It’s ridiculous! I might also point out that the way European nations have allowed their militaries & their military inventory to deteriorate is not just bad news for Ukraine. It’s bad news for Europe. They have to be ready to defend themselves.
Jay
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
Both protests today against PM Justin Trudeau today, on in Little India around noon, and one in Chinatown, were by “pro Cease Fire” groups.
There were two arrests at the Chinatown one, one arrested and released, one in custody for trying to gouge out the eyes of a VPD Female Police officer.
What the ‘morons” on both sides don’t realize, is that Canada has no influence with Hamas or the PA, and no influence with Netanyahu, the Settlers or other Israeli extremists.
Must be hard in Canada these days to be a Nazi. Torn between islamophobia and antisemitism, I have seen them line up on both sides, sometimes the same Nazi’s at two different “protests”.
And it sucks to be Muslim, Arab, Sikh or Jewish.
My watch schedule has doubled, more hours, more Mosques and schools, more Synagogue’s and schools, now even Bnai Brith sites. More coffee. I gotta stop eating the donuts.
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
@Jay: Thank you for doing the watches. Words seem inadequate, but thank you.
Adam thank you again as always. Appreciate your insight and analysis.
Shalimar
It’s hard to read news day after day without giving up on Americans. Way too many horrible people to continue as a functioning democracy.
wjca
But the alternative is to accept that the MAGAts are correct, and the only solution is to install a dictator. Hoping that a) we get ours in before they get theirs in, despite the fact that we don’t currently have an obvious candidate for the position while they do, and b) that ours, once in power, doesn’t go off in directions we don’t like. Seems, at minimum, premature to accept that.
Bill Arnold
Interesting, from bellingcat. This is adapted from similar tooling for Ukraine(the third link) and Turkey post-earthquake. Uses public satellite information; “C-band synthetic aperture radar” (Sentinal-1)
A New Tool Allows Researchers to Track Damage in Gaza (Ollie Ballinger, November 15, 2023)
Gaza Damage Proxy Map (ctrl +/- to zoom)
Similar tool by same author for Ukraine:
Ukraine Damage Assessment
Bill Arnold
@wjca:
Yup. American democracy is still very much in play, advantage pro-democracy, IMO.