(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Quick housekeeping note: Tonight’s post is going to be very brief. I’ve spent the late afternoon into the early evening at the emergency vet. Rosie will be staying overnight with them. She’s stable. She was diagnosed with lymphoma about two and a 1/2 weeks ago. They caught it early. She just started chemo and at least one lymph node shrank a lot as a result of that first treatment. However, she wouldn’t stand up when I got home, not even for her supper, which she didn’t eat. So I took her right in. She was running a high fever, they started her on fluids right away, and she started to perk up. Her bloodwork is within normal ranges, though she’s a bit anemic. The vet thinks this is likely a side effect of the chemo, has spoken with the oncology vet, and will leave the final determination to be made by the oncology vet in the morning. Right now everything is looking cautiously optimistic. But a long day got a lot longer. So I’m just going to cover some basics, get cleaned up, give Ruby some attention and rack out. Good thoughts for Rosie are, of course, always appreciated.
This morning, Russia viciously attacked #Chernihiv with “Iskander” missiles. They killed at least 17 people – as the rescue operation is not finished yet, we hope this number won’t increase.
We urge our partners to strengthen our air shield to protect people.#PatriotsSaveLives pic.twitter.com/effb6xHkMM
— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) April 17, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The Occupier Must Lose, and Each of their Losses is Ukraine’s Strength – Address of the President of Ukraine
17 April 2024 – 22:22
Dear Ukrainians!
The summary of this day.
I have just taken part in the work of the European Council. All the leaders of our Europe were here. I am grateful to Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, to Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, and to all the leaders of European states and governments for their consistent attention to Ukraine.
Today I emphasized everything that we need for our further actions, for our defense.
Of course, anti-aircraft warfare and the frontline are top priorities. Now is the time that everyone in Europe, in the free world, should use to strengthen — to increase the production and supply of weapons, and in general to strengthen the determination. The normal life of the world depends on determination, and Europe cannot afford to waste this time for the sake of our common security.
Before the European Council meeting, I addressed the participants of the discussion at the World Bank, attended by major global financiers — the Ministers of Finance of our partner countries and the heads of the leading financial institutions. We are working to ensure the adequate financial foundation for Ukraine which is essential for its defense against Russian aggression. Defense and reconstruction, social stability — all of this requires funding and long-term support programs. And finally, we need decisive actions to make the frozen Russian assets work for our defense against Russian terror.
Today I also talked to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. We are preparing for a meeting of the Ukraine – NATO Council on Friday. The agenda is focused on our partnership, on the power of joint action, on how we can work together, really work together, to provide more protection for life — for all our cities, towns, and communities.
The allies have shown now in the Middle East what they can really do. They can when there is enough determination.
Today, throughout the day, I received reports on the tragedy in Chernihiv following a Russian strike on the city, on its residential quarters. Some houses were damaged, a hospital, and a hotel were destroyed. There were people under the rubble. A lot of wounded people. As of now, 17 people have been confirmed killed. My condolences to all those who lost their loved ones. The rescue operation on site has continued throughout the day and will continue until we know the fate of everyone who may be under the rubble. I thank every rescuer on the scene, all the medical personnel, all the police officers who are helping, the municipal services that are involved — everyone who is saving lives.
And I would also like to thank everyone in our Armed Forces of Ukraine who prepares special operations — especially important operations, crucial operations that destroy the equipment of the Russian army and their combat infrastructure. Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have carried out a correct strike against the occupier in Dzhankoi, targeting the airfield. Thank you, warriors! Thank you for your precision. Thank you, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi for organizing this operation. The occupier must lose, and each of their losses is Ukraine’s strength.
Thank you, everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! Thank you, everyone who supports us!
Glory to Ukraine!
Thank you to @TIME.
But I am convinced that Time's list should include people like Dmytro Kotsyubailo, Pavlo Petrychenko, Oleksiy Chubashev, Andriy Pilshchykov "Juice", Vladyslava Chernykh "Aida" and many other of our heroes.
Everyone who died for Ukraine and freedom.
— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) April 17, 2024
That is why the defense forces and the people of Ukraine should be in Time.
I can only be proud to be a part of this nation.
I believe that Time's award is an assessment of the work of the entire
President @ZelenskyyUa's team, which is a great honor for me to work for.— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) April 17, 2024
Denmark:
Denmark announced the 17th military aid package for Ukraine, valued at approximately DKK 2.2 billion. kroner ($313 million).
The new military aid package focuses on increased defense industry cooperation between Ukraine and Denmark. Denmark allocates 200 million DKK for… pic.twitter.com/JPKVXFuOV7
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 17, 2024
Denmark announced the 17th military aid package for Ukraine, valued at approximately DKK 2.2 billion. kroner ($313 million).
The new military aid package focuses on increased defense industry cooperation between Ukraine and Denmark. Denmark allocates 200 million DKK for investments in the Ukrainian defense industry. In addition, funds have been set aside for maritime capabilities, drones, and the production of missile components.
We highly appreciate Denmark’s unwavering support for Ukraine. Together, we fight for freedom.
NATO:
Spoke with President @ZelenskyyUa on #Ukraine's urgent needs & #NATO support. Delays in aid have consequences on the ground every day. So my message to Allies is clear: Send more to Ukraine. We also agreed to convene the NATO-Ukraine Council this Friday.
— Jens Stoltenberg (@jensstoltenberg) April 17, 2024
Germany:
Germany urges dozen of allies to send air defence systems to Ukraine https://t.co/YbK8Ej9JpG
— Financial Times (@FT) April 17, 2024
From The Financial Times:
Germany has written to dozens of countries including Gulf Arab states to plead for more air defence systems for Ukraine, saying Kyiv needed urgent help to protect its cities, troops and critical infrastructure from the “murderous onslaught” of Russian missiles.
In a letter to other Nato members, a copy of which was obtained by the Financial Times and confirmed by Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock and defence minister Boris Pistorius said they were launching a global initiative aimed at plugging the gaps in Ukraine’s air defences.
A “wide range of non-Nato partners” had also been approached, they added. Officials declined to identify those countries.
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister who is the frontrunner to become Nato’s next secretary-general, said he believed European members of the alliance were prepared to provide funds to acquire air defence systems for Kyiv.
“We know the amount they need and we know that we should be able to get that done,” Rutte said on Wednesday at a summit of EU leaders in Brussels. “We know that many countries have Patriot [anti-missile] systems but maybe do not want to deliver directly. We can buy from them and we can deliver to Ukraine. We have the money available. It’s crucial.”
Ukraine has warned it is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive. In their letter, the German ministers said Russia was trying to destroy Odesa — the Black Sea port city, which they described as Ukraine’s “economic lifeline” — and the north-eastern industrial centre of Kharkiv, while a wave of attacks on energy infrastructure had caused even more damage than during the winter of 2022-23.
“It is up to us to help Ukraine defend itself against this murderous onslaught,” they said, calling on Germany’s partners to join the initiative, known as Immediate Action on Air Defence.
“We appeal to you to take stock of all [the] air defence systems in your arsenals and consider what could be transferred to Ukraine, whole systems or parts of them either permanently or for a limited period,” they said.
In a statement to the FT, Kuleba said Kyiv was “very grateful to Germany for its leadership on the issue of air defence for Ukraine”.
“Not only has it provided its own Patriot system and missiles, but our German friends are actively looking for ways to engage other countries that may help,” he said. “We urge all of them to reciprocate the German call.”
Officials in Kyiv said Kuleba held discussions on scouring the world for available systems with Baerbock at Nato headquarters in Brussels earlier this month. Germany co-leads a “Capability Coalition Integrated Air and Missile Defense” for Ukraine with France and the US.
“We know we need to do more than we are currently doing to support Ukraine. That is especially true for all capabilities required for air defence,” Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, said at the Brussels summit.
Scholz noted that Germany had decided to send Ukraine a third Patriot system from its arsenal.
“We want to also encourage others to do the same and look what possibilities exist in their own stocks to improve Ukraine’s possibilities for defence,” Scholz added. “It’s about doing this quickly now.”
Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, warned on Saturday that the situation on the eastern front had “significantly worsened in recent days.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made repeated calls for Ukraine’s western partners to provide more air defence systems. After a Russian missile attack destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv last week, he pleaded for the US Congress to approve a much-needed $60bn military assistance package.
More at the link.
Washington, DC:
As they await US aid, Ukrainians losing ground, SecDef Austin tells House:
“We’re already seeing things on the battlefield begin to shift a bit in in terms of in Russia's favor,” Austin told the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee. “We are seeing them make incremental…
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) April 17, 2024
As they await US aid, Ukrainians losing ground, SecDef Austin tells House:
“We’re already seeing things on the battlefield begin to shift a bit in in terms of in Russia’s favor,” Austin told the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee. “We are seeing them make incremental gains, we’re seeing the Ukrainians be challenged in terms of holding the line — they’re doing a very good job, a credible job — but in order to continue to do that, they’re going to need you know, the right materials, the right munitions, the weapons to be able to do that.”
BREAKING — House Republicans are posting the aid bill imminently.
I’m told there are no changes from what @SpeakerJohnson laid out Monday.
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) April 17, 2024
Ukraine aid :https://t.co/3dPoHFik6j https://t.co/6f2aRaOiIg
— Olivia Beavers (@Olivia_Beavers) April 17, 2024
In a statement, President Joe Biden says he "strongly support[s]" the House's National Security Supplemental aid package, pledging, "I will sign this into law immediately to send a message to the world: We stand with our friends, and we won't let Iran or Russia succeed." pic.twitter.com/SRb4L4VbQA
— DJ Judd (@DJJudd) April 17, 2024
Reagan turning over in his grave.
— Barbara Slavin (@barbaraslavin1) April 18, 2024
Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene had some thoughts, which she expressed as amendments:
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced an amendment requiring members to “conscript in the Ukrainian military” if they vote for the Ukraine supplemental bill. pic.twitter.com/n0SykKpA3I
— Juliegrace Brufke (@juliegraceb) April 17, 2024
Marjorie Taylor Greene offers an amendment to make funds from the Israel funding bill available “for the development of space laser technology on the southwest border.”
This is real, not made up— it’s amendment 11 herehttps://t.co/4IYE7Z8359
H/T @juliegraceb pic.twitter.com/Aq01a7zDRM— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) April 18, 2024
I didn’t say they were good thoughts.
Who could’ve possibly known?
“The document for the first time provides official confirmation and codification of what many in the Moscow elite say has become a hybrid war against the West. Russia is seeking to subvert Western support for Ukraine and disrupt the domestic politics of the United States and…
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 17, 2024
“The document for the first time provides official confirmation and codification of what many in the Moscow elite say has become a hybrid war against the West. Russia is seeking to subvert Western support for Ukraine and disrupt the domestic politics of the United States and European countries, through propaganda campaigns supporting isolationist and extremist policies, according to Kremlin documents previously reported on by The Post. It is also seeking to refashion geopolitics, drawing closer to China, Iran and North Korea in an attempt to shift the current balance of power.”
gift link https://wapo.st/3vMlQ39
The Washington Post has the details. (emphasis mine)
Russia’s Foreign Ministry has been drawing up plans to try to weaken its Western adversaries, including the United States, and leverage the Ukraine war to forge a global order free from what it sees as American dominance, according to a secret Foreign Ministry document.
In a classified addendum to Russia’s official — and public — “Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation,” the ministry calls for an “offensive information campaign” and other measures spanning “the military-political, economic and trade and informational psychological spheres” against a “coalition of unfriendly countries” led by the United States.
“We need to continue adjusting our approach to relations with unfriendly states,” states the 2023 document, which was provided to The Washington Post by a European intelligence service. “It’s important to create a mechanism for finding the vulnerable points of their external and internal policies with the aim of developing practical steps to weaken Russia’s opponents.”
The document for the first time provides official confirmation and codification of what many in the Moscow elite say has become a hybrid war against the West. Russia is seeking to subvert Western support for Ukraine and disrupt the domestic politics of the United States and European countries, through propaganda campaigns supporting isolationist and extremist policies, according to Kremlin documents previously reported on by The Post. It is also seeking to refashion geopolitics, drawing closer to China, Iran and North Korea in an attempt to shift the current balance of power.
Using much tougher and blunter language than the public foreign policy document, the secret addendum, dated April 11, 2023, claims that the United States is leading a coalition of “unfriendly countries” aimed at weakening Russia because Moscow is “a threat to Western global hegemony.” The document says the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine will “to a great degree determine the outlines of the future world order,” a clear indication that Moscow sees the result of its invasion as inextricably bound with its ability — and that of other authoritarian nations — to impose its will globally.
The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, which was published March 31, 2023, and approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin, deploys bland diplomatic language to call for “the democratization of international relations,” “sovereign equality” and the strengthening of Russia’s position on the global stage. Though the Foreign Policy Concept also charges that the United States and “its satellites” have used the Ukraine conflict to escalate “a many-years-long anti-Russia policy,” it also states that “Russia does not consider itself an enemy of the West … and has no ill intentions toward it.”
Russia hopes the West will “realize the lack of any future in its confrontational policy and hegemonistic ambitions, and will accept the complicated realities of the multipolar world,” the public document states.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it did not comment “on the existence or nonexistence of internal ministry documents” and on the progress of work on them. “As we have stated several times on different levels, we can confirm the mood is to decisively combat the aggressive steps taken by the collective West as part of the hybrid war launched against Russia,” the ministry added.
Russia’s recent veto against extending U.N. monitoring of sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles program, effectively ending 14 years of cooperation, was “a clear sign” that the work contemplated in the classified addendum is already underway, said a leading Russian academic with close ties to senior Russian diplomats. The academic spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations in Moscow.
“Russia can create difficulties for the U.S. in many different regions of the world,” the academic said. “This is about the Middle East, northeast Asia, the African continent and even Latin America.”
The creation of the Foreign Policy Concept and the classified addendum followed a call to Russian academics for policy suggestions. One proposal submitted in February 2023 to the Foreign Ministry by the deputy head of Moscow’s Institute for the Commonwealth of Independent States, which maintains close ties to Russia’s security apparatus, laid out Russia’s options more bluntly still.
The academic, Vladimir Zharikhin, called for Russia to “continue to facilitate the coming to power of isolationist right-wing forces in America,” “enable the destabilization of Latin American countries and the rise to power of extremist forces on the far left and far right there,” as well as facilitate “the restoration of European countries’ sovereignty by supporting parties dissatisfied with economic pressure from the U.S.”
Other points in the policy proposal, which was also provided to The Post, suggested that Moscow stoke conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan to bring Russia and China closer together, as well as “to escalate the situation in the Middle East around Israel, Iran and Syria to distract the U.S. with the problems of this region.”
For Mikhail Khodorkovsky — the longtime Putin critic who was once Russia’s richest man until a clash with the Kremlin landed him 10 years in prison — it is not surprising that Russia is seeking to do everything it can to undermine the United States. “For Putin, it is absolutely natural that he should try to create the maximum number of problems for the U.S.,” he said. “The task is to take the U.S. out of the game, and then destroy NATO. This doesn’t mean dissolving it, but to create the feeling among people that NATO isn’t defending them.”
The long congressional standoff on providing more weapons to Ukraine was only making it easier for Russia to challenge Washington’s global power, he said.
“The Americans consider that insofar as they are not directly participating in the war [in Ukraine], then any loss is not their loss,” Khodorkovsky said. “This is an absolute misunderstanding.”
A defeat for Ukraine, he said, “means that many will stop fearing challenging the U.S.” and the costs for the United States will only increase.
More at the link!
For our Russian speakers, if any of you would like to translate the pdf of the annex that was provided to WaPo into English for me, it’s at this link. Just email it to me at my Balloon Juice contact address. Thanks in advance.
Given the WaPo’s reporting above and most of what I’ve written here since 2015, he’s back…
It's official!
Paul Manafort, who was convicted of tax and bank fraud, conspiracy to defraud the US, and witness tampering, and who a bipartisan Senate report labeled a “grave counterintelligence threat” because of his ties to a Russian spy, has joined Trump's 2024 campaign. https://t.co/0CALyvDGSA
— Polly Sigh (@dcpoll) April 17, 2024
Kyiv:
“Budanov predicted that Russia will launch a big offensive starting in June to try to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk, the two provinces known as the Donbas region, which Russia has claimed but doesn’t control. The Russians will then focus on the November elections in the…
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) April 17, 2024
Avdiivka front:
Kriegforscher via the Thread Reader App:
In the nearest future I will publish a short thread about the biggest Russian advance near Tonenke, Avdiivka area, where they used a tank battalion in charge.But right now I would like to say a couple of words about FPV drones and the dillusional reality they have created.
First of all, a short remark: I am totally supportive of FPV drones. With both of my hands.But U need understand some thing: that’s not a panacea. Not at all.
U see only successful hits on Twitter or TG channels and they create a wrong point of thinking.Unfortunately, we use so much FPV drones because of lack of ammo for mortars, ATGMs, artillery and even antitank mines.
IMHO, every army needs to has them. They are cheap and very effective, FIRST OF ALL, against the enemy logistics. That’s out of the question and they are really needed.But here, in your TV war, you mostly see, especially right now, how the enemy columns charge so let’s talk a little bit about this.1) they wouldn’t even be able to reach our positions if we had enough antitank mines. Same with artillery;2) they wouldn’t be able to reach the city of Krasnogorivka, that’s the best example right now, if we had enough ATGMs.
But they did.
We have at that direction FPV drones. But they cannot change the fact that RUAF AFV are driving there like at home.And finally , that the biggest charge near Tonenke was stopped with the help of ATGMs and artillery. And well trained and motivated infantry.Not with the help of FPV drones. They just finished the job (mostly damaged and abandoned AFVs).
FPV drones are not the key. And not the panacea.IMHO, the key is:
1) enough artillery shells;
2) well trained infantry;
3) mobility of your forces (AFV).That’s at least.
I am sorry, I am just fucking tired of what I see and when I have phone calls with possible recruits everyone asks me about FPV drones because they see the war via TG channels.
Dzankhoi, Russian occupied Crimea:
/1. This night there was a missile attack on the Russian airbase in Dzhankoi, Crimea.
Russian media claims that 7-8 ballistic missiles were launched during the attack. pic.twitter.com/ztvWO109tp— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024
/3. Additional footage of the results of the missile strikes on Russian Dzhankoi airbase pic.twitter.com/xm6Q9U3Oa8
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024
/5. Missile debris. https://t.co/zPD6aJhCie
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024
/7. In details about the Dzhankoy attack and first imagery of the aftermath of the attack. https://t.co/cVP6nOXHbJ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024
🚀💥Regarding the strike on Dzhankoy, as well as first footage of the aftermath of the attack. Destroyed Russian S-400 air defence system equipment.
«Tonight, April 17, 2024, the military airfield of the 39th helicopter regiment of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army… https://t.co/JGcByoXt6s pic.twitter.com/z1Z6G9mXhr
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024
🚀💥Regarding the strike on Dzhankoy, as well as first footage of the aftermath of the attack. Destroyed Russian S-400 air defence system equipment.
«Tonight, April 17, 2024, the military airfield of the 39th helicopter regiment of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Army (military unit 46453, Dzhankoy) was attacked.
The photo shows the destroyed S-400 Triumph air defense system.
The strike was carried out by two MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles.
The first blow hit the positions of the S-400 Triumph air defense system. 3 launchers and radar were destroyed.
The second hit was at the point for receiving and repairing military equipment of the 77th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade (military unit 33742, Krasnodar Territory). At the time of the impact, two S-300 launchers (of an unknown modification) were being serviced at the point. Also, as a result of the impact at the point, a secondary detonation of ammunition occurred. What exactly exploded is unknown.
There is no information about damaged helicopters yet.
Preliminary (as of 06:00) – 15 wounded, 22 missing.»
Voronezh, Russia:
Drone attack reported in Voronezh, Russia. Air raid alert in the region. pic.twitter.com/wX36Awlhoz
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 17, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
This is my city. My Chernihiv. Here, you do see no « pictures of the war ». Here, you see the pictures of war crimes. A lot of people died, including kids. Please help me and my people to survive. I don’t ask you to come and fight for the future of this world. We ask for more air… pic.twitter.com/L2ydgwUu13
— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 17, 2024
This is my city. My Chernihiv. Here, you do see no « pictures of the war ». Here, you see the pictures of war crimes. A lot of people died, including kids. Please help me and my people to survive. I don’t ask you to come and fight for the future of this world. We ask for more air defense systems for Ukrainian cities #UkraineNeedAirDefence
Open thread!
suzcamoo
Feel better soon, dear Rosie. There’s many of us with healing thoughts for you along with warm hugs for your companion, Adam. Woof-woof!
jackmac
All the best to Rosie a quick recovery.
Harrison Wesley
Thanks for the update, Adam. In light of what you’ve got going on at home, I certainly wouldn’t have begrudged you a one-night sabbatical. Hope all works out well for Rosie – sounds like she’s in good hands.
YY_Sima Qian
Not that the Gulf States would be motivated to donate their air defense systems to Ukraine in the best of times, but given what we just saw in the region over the weekend & the potential for further escalation, these states are probably using for more AD systems from the US & Europe.
The hundreds of Hawk systems retired by Taiwan are probably still sitting around somewhere, & surely the US can purchase them for nominal price, refurbish them, & send them to Ukraine. These obsolescent/obsolete systems are probably not useful against ballistic missiles, but they could be against cruise missiles & large UAVs, as well as Russian fighter bombers over the front lines.
Redshift
Keeping Rosie in my thoughts. 🫂
Lyrebird
@YY_Sima Qian: from your lips to the Almighty’s ears! …to use a saying.
And very good thoughts to Rosie and her medical team and her hooman.
Quiltingfool
Rosie is lucky to have you! I hope she gets better soon!
Anne Laurie
Holding Rosie, and you, in the light, Adam.
Thanks for your dedication, especially under such trying conditions!
Old School
Best of luck to Rosie in her treatments!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Best wishes for Rosie’s recovery, I know that you will miss Rosie tonight, I hope she is home tomorrow and well.
Jay
Content warnings,
https://theins.ru/en/confession/270824
Bill Arnold
Re
, the Russians are/will be wondering how many of those the Ukrainians have.
HumboldtBlue
Here’s to a quick recovery for Rosie.
scribbler
Wishing the best for Rosie!
Westyny
Thanks, Adam. Best wishes to Rosie.
YY_Sima Qian
I have always thought it ill-advised policy for the US to push hard against all geopolitical rivals/competitors at the same time. Had the Biden Administration restored the JPCOA w/ Iran, chosen a different path than “politely” escalating Great Power Competition vis-a-vis the PRC, & at least made an attempt to reach a stable equilibrium w/ NK (extremely tough here), Russia might have been more isolated since the current invasion of Ukraine. The countries who are trading w/ Russia now would still have traded w/ Russia, but Iran & NK might not have sold Russia drones, ballistic missiles & artillery shells. If Iran & NK have things to lose vis-a-vis the West (market access, FDI, normalized relations, etc.), they would be more hesitant to put those things at risk. Right now, Iran & NK have nothing to lose, so they are acting accordingly to secure hard currency & tech from Russia.
To the extent that the PRC has not gone all in to support Russia (by supplying lethal weapons), & that PRC entities are still complying w/ Western sanctions where the prospect of discovery & punishment is real, it is because there are still many things the PRC stands to lose vis-a-vis the West, & they are worth far more (especially to these entities) than market opportunities in Russia. The Chinese automobile makers that have raced to fill the market vacuum in Russia are precisely those who have no market exposure to the West & no JV tie ups w/ Western marques, not because they are the most competitive players. The Chinese tech. companies that have enhanced their collaborations w/ Russian concerns are often those Trump & Biden have already placed on the Entity List for other reasons. These entities have little to lose.
There is a strand in US foreign policy thinking that wants to see the PRC, Russia, Iran & NK coalesce into a solid block, & is willing to leverage US/Western pressure to encourage it into being. The thinking is that the formation of such a block will simplify geopolitical calculations for the US, & help the Western coalition (including such exemplars of liberal democracy as the Gulf States, Israel, India, Vietnam & the Philippines) coalesce, as well. To this strand of thinking, the inevitable negative consequences to Ukraine (due to much more comprehensive support from the PRC, Iran & NK to Russia) is an acceptable cost. I think it is dangerous. It ignores the currently transactional & parallel nature of the Russo-PRC, Russo-Iran & Russo-NK entente. It ignores how resistant the ROW (the Global South certainly, but also most US allies/partners) to reprising the Cold War. It ignores the amount of havoc all around the world a truly solidified PRC/Russia/Iran/NK block can wreak, if realized. It ignores how such Cold War dynamics, if realized, will enable & encourage all kinds of destructive behavior by members of each block. & it ignores how such Cold War block formation, if realized, will hinder the global collective action needed to address dire global challenges, such as AGW, economic development in the Global South, & pandemic mitigation.
There is another strand in US foreign policy thinking, exemplified by those who gravitate to GOP political figures (including but not limited to Trump), that the US should let Europe fend for itself vis-a-vis Russia & should concentrate all of its attention/resources/effort toward the PRC in the “Indo-Pacific”. Wrt ME these people tend to be suffer schizophrenia, swinging between letting the Gulf States fend for themselves vis-a-vis Iran, & fighting Iran directly on Israel’s behalf. These are the types who actively want to fight a Cold (even a hot) War w/ the PRC, & would even want to be able to enlist Russia in this endeavor. (If that means Ukraine & a few other parts of Russia’s “near abroad” has to be sacrificed, so be it.) They tend to be the most unapologetic & unvarnished US primacists/hegemonists & militarists. However, sometimes one wonders whether their true aim is simply to let Putin off the hook by leaning into the dominant zeitgeist in DC vis-a-vis the PRC, & perhaps even their PRC hawkishness is simply to advance the herrenvolk authoritarian domestic agenda embodied by the modern GOP.
YY_Sima Qian
Best wishes for Rosie!
YY_Sima Qian
An example of maintaining leverage & leaving PRC entities something to lose. Had we seen hard decoupling between the US & the PRC, Chinese companies would be highly motivated to secure export markets wherever they can find it.
This could be the early consequences of PRC financial institutions refusing transactions w/ Russia that we started hearing in Mar. I highly doubt that Xi or the CPC leadership is having 2nd thoughts about giving economic support to Russia, but at the end of the day, protecting the interests of Chinese firms (or allowing them to protect themselves) is much more important. Alternatively, this is a sign that Russia’s economy is not doing as well as the headline figures suggest.
Overtime, surely alternative pathways (physical & financial) will be found to channel PRC exports to Russia, likely via middlemen in the Persian Gulf, Central Asia or Türkiye. When there is demand, there will be supply. However, Chinese goods & components will likely take longer to reach Russia, & cost more.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: Pretty surprising in that the S-400 system is designed to fend off ballistic missile threats (like the Patriot PAC3), & the ATACMS is not exactly state of the art, I’d say inferior to the Russian Iskander. Maybe the Russian defenders were not on high alert, as ballistic missiles has not been a key part of the Ukrainian arsenal. There is also speculation that the S-400 battery was 1st taken out by Storm Shadows.
Alternatively, the vaunted Russian IADS may lack sophisticated long range surveillance radars to detect ballistic missile threats at the theater level, & instead is reliant upon the radars integrated w/ the SAM batteries themselves. Then again, Ukraine certainly faces this constraint (although NATO ground & air based radars are probably feeding some near real time information), & I don’t think the Ukrainian Air Force would lose a Patriot PAC3 battery to a mere couple of ATACMS, Kinzhals or Iskanders.
YY_Sima Qian
It seems the House packages are expected to pass, & they are not too dissimilar in content to the bill that has passed the Senate, so conference shouldn’t be too hard?
Adam is probably not the right person to ask (:-D), but are we finally feeling optimistic?
wombat probability cloud
Adam, I’m surprised by the news of movement–any movement–in the House, so thanks for that. Maybe the dam is finally breaking.
If there’s any way that we can help support Rosie, please let me know. We’re down to a single, fabulous rescue dog (after three others, each with a long and good life) and no cats (after four rescues, also long-lived and satisfied that we obeyed their commands adequately), so we have some resources to offer.
Grateful to you for these nightly posts.
Devore
Thanks Adam. Hope Rosie feels better soon
frosty
Best wishes for Rosie’s recovery and good health. Thanks for these nightly updates. I read every one.
wjca
Sadly, it may be more realistic to have the Europeans purchase them. At least they wouldn’t have to wait for the US House of Representatives to get their act together.
It does seem like Taiwan would be motivated to make a deal, since the better Russia does, the more likely a Chinese attack on them becomes. And conversely, the worse things go for Russia, the less likely China is to get adventurous.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Relief that the shitshow is over for 2024, certainly. But there will be latency: weapons, ammo, and supplies will not show up where they are needed instantaneously, or in an orderly manner, the moment that aid is authorized. And apparently there is a clock ticking if Ukrainian estimates of Russian intentions in Donetsk are correct.
wjca
Let me have the temerity to fill in for the sleeping Adam:
Motion is better than lack of same. But it is not necessarily the same as progress. When we see the rumored aid bills actually reach the floor, then we can say that perhaps the dam is finally breaking.
wombat probability cloud
@wjca: I agree. Only cautiously optimistic. I don’t know the machinations behind the scenes but hope that pressure is finally moving things in the right direction.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
As of December 2023, ruZZia has lost, (confirmed w visual) 12 S-400 and 19 S-300 systems in Occupied Ukraine.
Probably why they are using S-300’s as ballistic missiles rather than air defense.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca:
Arms deals involving Taiwan is extremely tricky politically. I highly doubt any single European country will want to take on that level of geopolitical risk, not even Czechia or Lithuania which has been pretty forward leaning developing “unofficial” relationships w/ TW & have been extremely skeptical of the PRC. I think the US is the only country that can take on the risk & manage the PRC reaction.
I have said this before, I don’t think the link is nearly as strong as often characterized by Western MSM & think tanks. Even in the best of circumstances, under the most optimistic assumptions, an amphibious invasion (or a tight blockade) of Taiwan is an extremely high risk venture that will make or break the CPC regime, so it is not something Xi or the CPC leadership will YOLO on. The most likely proximate cause remains what Beijing might perceive as an inexorable move by TW toward de jure independence, in spite of the shifting military balance across the Taiwan Strait and the Wester Pacific. A decision for invasion or blockade will necessarily have priced in direct US intervention (possibly Japan, too), so I believe what happens in Ukraine will have at best marginal effect on Beijing’s calculations, one way or the other. Remember, the CPC leadership & the PLA was fully prepared to wage war over Taiwan in the late 90s & the early 00s if Lee Teng-Hui or Chen Shui-Bien had gone for de jure independence, even though the military balance was laughably against the PRC at the time.
However, European countries can read the zeitgeist in DC & see that the bipartisan strategic class is far more animated by the Great Power Competition w/ the PRC, & they are making the linkage to encourage the US (especially the GOP) not to retrench from Ukraine or Europe. Taiwan is also making the linkage because it has deep seated fears of US abandonment, & not w/o reason based on its historical interactions. Were it not for the Korean War, Truman would have left the Chiang Kai-Shek regime to wither on the vine on TW. Nixon went for détente w/ the PRC w/o informing Chiang Kai-Shek, Carter decided to fully normalize relations w/ the PRC w/o notifying Chiang Ching-Kuo, & Reagan reversed course from his campaign rhetoric to facilitate the entente w/ the PRC against the USSR.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Most of them to HIMARS & the occasional HARM, though, which the S-300s & S-400s are not designed to defend against.
Carlo Graziani
@wjca: I’ll go out on that limb. I’ve believed for weeks, and occasionally written here, that the logjam would inevitably break, because Johnson ultimately has no choice. MTG and the Freedom Circus are loud and obnoxious, but amount to a noise term. Republican majority depends on far more purple-state members who, on current by-election evidence, have good reason to fear for their seats, and who do not want to go into the general election cycle with zero accomplishments (current tally), or stained with MAGA-crazy spittle. They have undoubtedly been shrieking at Johnson in private for a while now, to the point that he understands that his job is at greater risk if he ignores them than if he slights the low-cognition caucus controlled by Trump.
Also, keep in mind that Ukraine aid is not obnoxious to Republican orthodoxy, just to the Orange Baboon. And that a lot of those guys dearly wish that the baboon would step on a landmine, choke on a twinkie, or score a few years in a penitentiary, so that they can get back to their beloved Reagan Catechism—which catechism includes not getting fucked by the Evil Empire.
So, I make it 4:1 at least that the House passes Ukraine aid by next week.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Best always to you and yours.
wjca
Thank you for this. I knew that a successful invasion was problematic at best. But I had not realized that it would be make or break for the CPC regime.
wjca
I don’t disagree. But the question is when.
Repeated disappointments have made me disinclined to believe “this time for sure!” is going to happen any particular time. “Eventually” is so open-ended.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
By Feb 22, 2022, ruZZia had lost 200 SAM systems in Ukraine, (destroyed), 68 damaged and 37 captured. (confirmed visual).
I don’t think ruZZian air defenses are that good.
I think they are more hype than fact like much of ruZZia’s “wonderwaffen”.
After losing 5 T-90M’s, nobody has seen any of the other 10.
The last few T-90 kills have been T-90MS, (export models, no Shorta, etc) that were supposed to be delivered to India a year ago.
Both the two T-90’s sporting the new shed roof Copium* armor, that showed up in the last few days, (that were destroyed), were T-90MS from the batch made for India but never delivered.
*to try to defeat drones and top attack munitions, the ruZZian’s welded metal cages to the top of their tanks, they tried slat armor on top, (fail), wire (fail), sandbags (fail), reactive armor (fail). Their latest attempts, (2 so far) are to weld up a peak roof shed frame covering the entire tank, even the barrel, then cover it with sheet metal roofing panels salvaged from houses they have blown up, with a 4 foot overhang on the sides. Fail.
NotoriousJRT
Get well soon, Rosie. The Notorious one and I wish you and your human only the best! Thanks again for your continued efforts, Adm.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: If Taiwan declares de jure independence (or formalizes a military alliance w/ the US, or is developing nuclear weapons), I think the CPC regime will fall if it does not exercise military options. However, if an invasion (or war precipitated by blockade) fails, I think the CPC regime will fall, too. Not that a putative replacement regime will necessarily be better.
It also needs to be noted that a war across the Taiwan Strait does not necessarily end w/ the defeat of an initial invasion or blockade attempt. The PLA can continue to disrupt ocean & air traffic along TW’s western coast (where most TWese ports, airports, military bases & population centers are located), threaten military & civilian infrastructure, & otherwise make life very difficult, using relatively cheap long range rockets (along w/ more expensive SRBMs & cruise missiles) that are very difficult to suppress. The PLA can keep this up almost indefinitely, even if the PLAN & the PLAAF have suffered debilitating losses. Something like the Israeli defense system on steroids can help limit the direct damage, but it will be difficult to sustain a normal civilian economy on TW.
Even after a successful effort in defeating a PRC invasion or blockade of TW, the RoCN & the RoCAF have probably been decimated, the USN/USAF/JMSDF/JASDF have probably suffered significant losses, & all of the warring parties have probably depleted their stocks of their most sophisticated/effective munitions. Then it becomes a war of attrition pitting the two sides’ military industrial bases & their abilities to mobilize resources to replenish & expand, & probably the effectiveness of their cyber warfare in disruption of the opposing military industrial bases.
The CPC regime will have little incentive concede defeat & risk fatal harm to its legitimacy, even if the initial invasion or blockade is defeated. Unless an off ramp is offered, like a return to status quo ante, but hard to see how such an off ramp would be politically acceptable in TW or the US.
I don’t think many people anywhere truly appreciate how a war across the Taiwan Straight can turn into a protracted affair. Needless to say, the PRC economy will have to try to sustain itself by running on war footing in face of severe Western sanctions, like Russia is doing now. Any “Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” & realization of the “Chinese Dream” will either become infeasible or be delayed indefinitely. These ambitions are much bigger than Taiwan, & recovery of TW is seen more as the crowning achievement symbolizing the fulfillment of these ambitions, rather than a necessary stepping stone toward realizing these ambitions.
Like I said, not something Xi or any CPC leadership will YOLO over.
Manyakitty
Best wishes and good health to all members of the House of Silverman. ❤️
Another Scott
Best wishes and fingers crossed for Rosie and you and your pack. Hang in there.
ICYMI, ProPublica.org – Blinken sitting on report on Israel’s human rights violations. It’s a fairly balanced piece if one reads the whole thing, and politics is slow, but it’s clear that he and the administration needs to address the accusations (and what we see with our own lying eyes). Grr…
Fingers crossed that the Ukraine supplemental will finally make it over the far-too-long GQP obstruction hump this weekend, and have a speedy resolution in the Senate or in a conference committee. The House bill has a requirement that long-range HIMARS systems be sent ASAP, but with a caveat that the president can ignore that if he determines that it would endanger national security (there’s usually a caveat like that).
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: I would be happy if the Administration stops trotting out John Kirby to the lecture when addressing questions about Israeli conduct in Gaza.
Freemark
@YY_Sima Qian: Don’t forget the ones in S. Korea. They have all been recently retired and most were fully upgraded and even had some ballistic missile defense capabilities.
daveNYC
@Jay: They also have a metric crapton of S-300 missiles, and Russia isn’t exactly a stickler for accuracy.
Ryan
Adam, is this it?
https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Turkish journalist Ragip was saying that about Kirby last December, called him a “comedian” but not in the funny sense of the word.
Bill Arnold
@Ryan:
That document appears to be referred to in the Russian-language document that Adam linked. Also, the date is different. (Just using a google translate app on a phone, camera pointed at the header and first few paragraphs of text on the screen of another computer.)