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I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

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Can we lighten up on the doomsday scenarios?

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 792: ATACMS! About Damn Time

War for Ukraine Day 792: ATACMS! About Damn Time

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Apparently President Biden directed that ATACMS be sent to Ukraine about two months ago.

What we have to wait to find out is what “inside Ukrainian sovereign territory” means. Does it include Russian occupied Crimea? If so, does it include the Kerch strait bridge?

As we’ve discussed, Putin’s and Russia’s intention is to destroy as much of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure before the US aid arrives over the next couple of weeks.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

It Is Very Important to Implement All of Our Agreements with President Biden One Hundred Percent – Address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

24 April 2024 – 19:38

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, President Biden signed into law the support package passed by the U.S. Congress, including support for Ukraine. The six-month path is now over. No matter what anyone says, we are securing the support we need to further protect lives from Russian attacks. These days, we have been working with our American friends at all levels as actively as possible to quickly fill this package from the United States with the weapons our warriors need. From ATACMS and artillery, anti-tank weapons and HIMARS munitions to the necessary air defense systems and vehicles.

I am grateful to President Biden, the U.S. Congress, and all Americans who realize the need to take the wind out of Putin’s sails, not to submit to him, as only then will there truly be fewer threats to freedom. Together we can make this happen. I thank all Americans working in the defense industry. I am grateful to each state that produces weapons that are now truly defending democracy and our way of life.

Our entire cooperation – of Ukraine and the United States, every manifestation of support for our defense now – strengthens both our nations and all our partners, the entire world that wants to live by the rules, not in violence and chaos. Now we will do everything to compensate for the six months that have passed in debate and doubt. We must turn what the Russian occupier has managed to do over this time and what Putin is planning now against him. All his actions at the front, all his attacks on our energy sector and infrastructure, all his terror against our cities and villages – all this should mobilize us, everyone in the world who really values life, to put more pressure on Russia. It is very important to implement all of our agreements with President Biden one hundred percent. Thank you, America!

Today, I met with diplomats working in Ukraine – representatives of partner states and international organizations – to discuss our steps for the sake of the Peace Summit – for the sake of bringing real peace closer. We now have a real chance to rally the world’s majority and force Russia to abide by international law – to force Russia into peace. The world has this power. And in diplomacy, we must succeed in the same way as in everything else – namely, we must not let Putin split the world, we must not let him disrupt the Peace Summit – we must engage as many states as possible in the work for real peace. Today, I presented our vision in this regard to all ambassadors working in Ukraine and urged them to work even harder to ensure that the first Summit in Switzerland yields the necessary outcome. Invitations to the Peace Summit in Switzerland will be sent to world leaders shortly.

And one more thing.

There was a report today by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and Defense Minister Umerov on the supplies for our military, the training of our brigades, and our actions on the frontline and against the Russian war machine in general. We need strength in all formats, in every aspect, so that we can achieve peace as soon as possible through strong positions and strong actions.

Thank you to everyone who helps! Thank you to everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! I am proud of our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also address a meeting with the foreign and Ukrainian diplomatic corps. Video below followed by English transcript.

Please Spread the Truth About the War in Your Countries and Help Bolster Our Air Defense – Speech by the President at the Meeting with Foreign and Ukrainian Ambassadors

24 April 2024 – 18:51

Good afternoon, dear attendees, dear ladies and gentlemen, dear representatives of partner countries and our diplomats – representatives of Ukraine!

I am glad to see all of you today, united in this assembly, ready to collaborate towards achieving a just peace and restoring genuine tranquility in international relations. Unity is the world’s most important asset today. For it is only the unity of everyone who genuinely disapproves of the war that can end it.

You all know that Russia’s resources, which can be used to continue and expand aggression and terror – and not only against Ukraine – are quite significant. It is extremely difficult to counter this alone. It is also extremely difficult to force Russia into peace alone. Ukraine has the largest experience in the world in negotiating with Russia one-on-one for the sake of peace. Since 2014, when Russian aggression began, hundreds of rounds of negotiations have taken place in various formats, and this process has always resulted in deception on the part of Russia, as witnessed by respected international mediators.

Now there are virtually no international norms left that Russia has not already violated. The UN Charter, major conventions, and numerous bilateral treaties with both Ukraine and other countries have been rejected by the insanity reigning in the Kremlin today. However, peace must be achieved anyway – and most importantly, it must be fair, in order not to give way to other wars.

Ukraine’s point is that war and ineffective international rules should not become the new “normal” for international relations. The sovereignty of each state, its territorial integrity, and all elements of security – starting with radiation and food security – must be guaranteed. Ukraine has offered the world a Peace Formula – a formula of clear steps that can restore the effectiveness of international law, primarily the UN Charter, and actually re-establish security for Ukraine and the world as a whole. The strength of the Peace Formula is that its points are clear in terms of security and justice for every country on every continent. And when we ensure the implementation of the Peace Formula for Ukraine in unity, it will create a new basis for restoring broken security and just peace in all parts of the world.

Dear ladies and gentlemen!

In June, Switzerland will host the first inaugural Global Peace Summit, and your heads of state will soon receive invitations to attend. I thank all those who are already helping to prepare the Summit, all the leaders, all the leaders’ advisors and diplomatic teams who are really bringing peace closer. And we will be grateful to each of you who will do your utmost now to facilitate the effective participation of your countries at the level of leaders in the Summit.

It is really important – and not only for Ukraine – that the world majority attend the Summit. The more active the world is now in restoring a just peace for Ukraine, the more likely it is that others in the world will not become victims of similar aggressions.

It is not brute force that should determine the world order, but the UN Charter, and in unity we can force Russia to comply with international law. In June, at the Summit, we will start agreeing on the first foundations of peace and put forward a shared global vision of how peace should work.

That is why everyone is important, every nation, every leader. Africa must be represented and heard in global affairs, and not only in food security issues. A stable, predictable, peaceful world is a world in which no one has the ability to spread violence and chaos, including in African countries. This is exactly what Russia is spreading – destabilization and pain. That is why we are all equally interested in forcing Russia into peace and respect for international law. Latin America – this region should be involved in the resolution of global affairs. Asia. Australia and the Pacific region. Europe. North America. There are no state borders or natural barriers that can stop the spread of radiation. There is no nation that would simply put up with the captivity or deportation of people by a hostile state. There is no nation that would accept that someone is turning its cities into ruins. The Peace Formula must work for everyone, and I ask all of you to help ensure that the world is truly united at the Summit in Switzerland. We have precise intelligence information – specific data – that Russia not only wants to disrupt the Peace Summit, but also has a specific plan – how to do it, how to reduce the number of participating countries, how to act to ensure that there is no peace for even longer. We will share with you, dear partners, at the level of diplomats, at the level of intelligence, Russia’s plans – specific plans and specific points. And together we must counteract this – we must work in unity for a just peace. I am grateful to everyone who is helping and will help.

And one more thing that is important to say now.

All of you, working in Ukraine, in Kyiv, like all Ukrainians, hear the air raid alert, rely on the power of our air defense, and see our people restoring life after the strikes… Russian terror is possible only because we still have fewer weapons and decisions to protect life than Russia has the ability to destroy. Please spread the truth about the war – about Russian terror – in your countries, and help bolster our air defense. You all know how effective Patriot, IRIS-T, NASAMS, Hawk and other modern air defense systems are. We need them here in Ukraine – in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Donbas and other cities suffering from Russian attacks. And every leader, every state, every ambassador that helps us with air defense now is not only a life saver, but also the one who reduces Russia’s temptation to wage war – the less the Kremlin achieves with terror, the more they will be interested in seeking peace. We must force Russia into this – all of us together.

I thank all of you whose leaders will be in Switzerland at the Peace Summit.

Glory to Ukraine!

And here is President Biden’s statement after signing the supplemental aid build:

US President @POTUS Joe Biden signed the aid package for Ukraine, which was approved by Congress.

Weapons and other military equipment will be sent to Ukraine in the near future.

The nearly $61 billion package signed is a vital step in strengthening our ability to protect our independence, our sovereignty, and to maintain global peace.

As the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, I want to express my gratitude to the American people, the US Congress, President Joe Biden, and my American counterpart, US Secretary of Defense @SecDef
Lloyd Austin, for their tireless support and solidarity.
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

Ya think?!?!

And, believe it or not, the sky did not fall on Earth, there was no “WW3,” no boiling seas, no 40 years of darkness, no earthquakes, no volcanos, no mass hysteria, and no cats and dogs living together.

What happened was Ukraine, as a result of a precise ATACMS strike, wiping out advanced Russian air defense systems in occupied Crimea.

Why? Why, God, why?

Why couldn’t this be done two years ago, when so many good sons and daughters of Ukraine were still alive and we had a much, much better chance of defeating Russia’s aggression?

From Politico:

The Biden administration last month secretly shipped long-range missiles to Ukraine for the first time in the two-year war — and Kyiv has already used the weapon twice to strike deep behind Russian lines.

In March, the U.S. quietly approved the transfer of a number of Army Tactical Missile Systems with a range of nearly 200 miles, said a senior Biden administration official and two U.S. officials, allowing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forces to put at risk more Russian targets inside Ukrainian sovereign territory.

The administration will include additional long-range ATACMS in a new $1 billion package of military aid President Joe Biden approved on Wednesday, one of the U.S. officials said.

The provision of the long-range version of the ATACMS ends a lengthy drama in which Ukraine clamored for years to receive the weapon, driving a wedge between Washington and Kyiv. The U.S. quietly sent the medium-range version of the missile in October, but Ukraine continued to press for a weapon that would allow it to strike farther behind Russia’s lines.

Ukrainian forces have used the long-range missiles twice, first against a Russian military base in Crimea and more recently against Russian forces east of Berdyansk near the Sea of Azov, the senior administration official said.

The U.S. on Wednesday announced a new $1 billion package of weapons that will quickly be transferred to Ukraine now that Biden has signed off on the long-delayed foreign aid bill that passed the Senate this week. Among other weapons, the tranche will include Stinger anti-aircraft missiles for air defense; 155mm artillery rounds; Bradley Fighting Vehicles; Javelin anti-tank systems; and Claymore anti-personnel munitions, according to a Pentagon press release.

POLITICO first reported in March that the U.S. was sending Ukraine a second round of a different version of ATACMS, one that travels 100 miles and carries warheads containing hundreds of cluster bombs. The senior administration official, who like others was granted anonymity to detail a sensitive decision, said the March shipment also included the long-range version, and that the missiles arrived in Ukraine this month.

Russian military bloggers posted images of a strike on the Dhzankoy airbase last week and speculated that Ukraine used ATACMS.

Kyiv:

Serebryansky forest:

The Avdiivka front:

Krasnohorivka:

Kreminna direction:

Slightly damaged, due to inaccurate HIMARS strike, Russian 92H2E (previously mistaken for 96L6) all-altitude detection radar of the S-400 air defence system. As the source says:

“The damage is a result of a HIMARS MLRS strike, two missiles were used.

It is worth noting that the strike occurred immediately after the arrival of the air defense system at the position. In other words, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reconnaissance drone was waiting for the complex to arrive at previously known positions.

The HIMARS operator made an inaccurate strike, which resulted in minor damage to the radar.

Also, it is worth noting the death of the signalman of the radio technical troops unit, senior sergeant Andrey Nikolaevich Bushuev (position “Koshma”), due to shrapnel wounds.

Interesting point is that along with the S-300 air defense system (judging by the radar system it was S-400) , the Pantsir-S1 air defense system was also in position, which was responsible for covering the air defense system. However, the Pantsir failed to “detect” the approach of the missiles.

Kreminna direction, Lugansk region.

10-15 April 2024.”

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/521

I don’t think this is going to work:

Smolensk, Russia:

Here’s the description of the event from the Eurasia Center:

In the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has risen on the international stage to become a pivotal player in global politics. With noteworthy access to Zelenskyy during Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, Simon Shuster, staff writer for Time magazine and a long-time reporter in Russia and Ukraine, crafts a story of Zelenskyy’s days and weeks around the invasion in this insightful biographical account of the wartime leader and his rise in power.

Alongside the months Shuster spent embedded with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team in Kyiv after the full-scale invasion began, the biography covers four years of reporting on the president, including travels and interviews with Zelenskyy, as well as interviews with his inner circle and his opponents. From his unique vantage point, Shuster reflects on the critical decisions and believed mistakes within Ukraine’s leadership around Russia’s invasion, and how it could have been prevented.

The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center hosts a fireside chat with Simon Shuster in conversation with Jacob Heilbrunn, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center, to discuss Shuster’s biography of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, The Showman: Inside the Invasion That Shook the World and Made a Leader of Volodymyr Zelensky, and his insights on the country and its leadership.

What message did Shuster hope to send in the narratives he crafted around Zelenskyy as a wartime leader? And what did he come to understand about Zelenskyy’s transformation?

And here’s the video of the event:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Коротко про те, як виглядає галерея Михайла :)) #песпатрон

♬ original sound – Levi

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Briefly about what Mykhailo’s gallery looks like :)) #песпатрон

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

40Comments

  1. 1.

    Parfigliano

    Im no Patton but it seems to me the Kerch bridge should have been down and out within weeks of Russia’s invasion

  2. 2.

    stacib

    I hope G & T is actually enjoying a gin and tonic, and I truly hope he gets to sleep well tonight.

    And, Adam, absolutely the same for you.

  4. 4.

    RevRick

    Thank you, Adam, for continuing to keep us informed about this struggle of freedom against tyranny. My ancestral roots arise, in part, from Lviv. And since my parents both served in the American embassy in Berlin before the war and were present at Kristallnacht, I understand the importance of the fight against a fascist regime.

  5. 5.

    Bill Arnold

    @Parfigliano:
    The supports on the railway part of the bridge are probably an easier target, depending on the accuracy of the missiles used.
    Ukraine has executed two seriously damaging attacks on the bridge using unconventional means, truck bomb(?)/2022, and sea drones (2023). And there have been many other attacks.

  6. 6.

    glc

    It’s been an interesting couple of days. As always (but mostly tacitly), thanks for the daily updates.

  9. 9.

    Westyny

    Thank you, Adam. As grievously frustrating as these last few months have been, it seems things are looking up. The ATACAMS are most welcome.

  10. 10.

    Elizabelle

    @Adam L Silverman:  OK. You don’t drink alcohol, and neither do the Dog Lanterns.

    But I do.  And I am toasting you, and G&T, and Ukraine and President Zelensky, with a very tasty Manhattan tonight.

  12. 12.

    Chet Murthy

    @Elizabelle: I haven’t had a Manhattan in *years* (since before the pandemic).  I used to like mine with whiskey (Jameson’s, typically) and very little vermouth.  snif.  I don’t go to bars since the pandemic; maybe I should start again.  B/c for sure, I don’t wanna buy the fixings for the house: that’s too tempting.

  17. 17.

    Prescott Cactus

    To those in Australia and New Zealand, Happy ANZAC Day !

    Celebrated on April 25th, it is a national day of remembrance in Australia and New Zealand that broadly commemorates all Australians and New Zealanders “who served and died in all wars, conflicts, and peacekeeping operations” and “the contribution and suffering of all those who have served”

    Thank you forever Adam.

  18. 18.

    Jay

    @Parfigliano:

    By the end of the first invasion, (Crimea, Donbas, Lugansk), the area where the Kerch bridge was built was already out of range of Ukrainian weapons, unless some SU-25 pilots wanted to take on a probably impossible suicide run.

    Azov was holding the left flank of the Ukrainian lines, and the 25th Marines were holding the right flank.

    Because of ruZZian propaganda dominating the US narrative and media, every aid bill for Ukraine denies Azov US arms and NATO training, despite not being Nazi’s and being a regular unit of the Ukrainian Army.

    The 25th Marines were a light force, no armor, no arty.

    So when the ruZZian’s invaded out of Crimea, they quickly rolled the defenders back to Mariupol, destroyed the city, then eventually took the Azovstal steel plant with the last defenders and civilians in Mariupol inside.

    The ATACMS (M31A1 Block 2) sent two months ago have a 200 mile range, so the bridge is barely with in range, and the warheads they have, arn’t designed to take out structures.

    Germany’s Taurus missiles are, and have 130 miles more range, but Germany won’t send them out of fear of empty ruZZian nuclear threats.

  19. 19.

    cain

    @Jay: I understand that they have been going and press ganging from the far reaches of Russia eventually they will have to start getting men from the Moscow and surrounding areas .. that’s going to be harder.

  21. 21.

    Carlo Graziani

    The administration will include additional long-range ATACMS in a new $1 billion package of military aid President Joe Biden approved on Wednesday, one of the U.S. officials said.

    The provision of the long-range version of the ATACMS ends a lengthy drama in which Ukraine clamored for years to receive the weapon, driving a wedge between Washington and Kyiv. The U.S. quietly sent the medium-range version of the missile in October, but Ukraine continued to press for a weapon that would allow it to strike farther behind Russia’s lines.

    If we could just take a moment here for an acknowledgement, in this forum steeped in recriminations about the supposed excessive caution exhibited by the Biden administration, that the shipment to Ukraine of these scarce and valuable missiles, which are no longer in production, and which represent a critical strike capability not to be replaced by the US until sometime in 2025 or later, represents a calculated risk with potentially extremely serious downsides for the US?

    Thank you, Mr. President, for accepting this risk.

  22. 22.

    Jay

    @cain:

    not just that, they have been “suckering” people from all across the 2nd and 3rd world, promising them civilian jobs, flying them in and then giving them a choice, the gulag or a “non combat*” contract with the ruZZian army.

    *meatcube

    These are not in the 1’s or 2’s, but in the tens of thousands, 15,000 Nepalese alone.

  23. 23.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    They are not the M48 QRU or the M57 Block 1 Unitary.

    They are the anti-personnel, (cluster munition) versions, not the unitary warhead versions.

    BTW, over 3,700 of the ATACM’s have been made, so far,  so they are neither rare nor scarce.

    They are operational in 15 countries other than the US and Ukraine, and the only reason they are no longer produced, (for the US, they are still produced for other countries), is the US has declined to buy further production.

  24. 24.

    Jay

    Logo
    WarTranslated (Dmitri)
    @wartranslated
    21h
    Hilarious. Having received instructions from the Kremlin on coverage of the arrest of corrupt official Timur Ivanov, Russian Z-channels started sharing stories about “long-term construction” – residential buildings for the Russian military, which are 80-90% completed and then abandoned. Such houses exist all over Russia.

    Z-channels pick up literally dozens of messages from all cities of Russia, in order:

    – “Since we started talking about housing for the military, not far from me in Krasnodar there are 6 such houses that were built by MoD, but something went wrong and these houses have been standing for 5 years without movement, and how many military families could get long-awaited housing.”

    – “Good morning! Moscow Region, Khimki microdistrict. Planernaya house 11 building 3. Readiness 85-90%. Even double glazed windows are installed. In oblivion for 10 years.”

    – “Novosibirsk Housing for military personnel. Could be. Look at the scale.”

    – “For more than 10 years we have been observing unfinished construction from the Moscow Region in Tver; out of 4 x 17 floors (more than 1300! apartments), two houses were recently barely rented out and occupied. The remaining two are standing, their fate is not decided and are deteriorating before our eyes without repair – cracks, etc.”

    As we see, the level of corruption is just colossal. And these people think they can teach us something?

    https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1783040193693462944#m

  26. 26.

    Martin

    @Carlo Graziani: @Jay:

    Analyst brain chiming in here. Number made probably means globally. US probably only has a fraction of those, vs other NATO partners, etc.

    So yes, lots made, maybe not lots available.

  27. 27.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Production history
    Designer Ling-Temco-Vought
    Designed 1986
    Manufacturer Lockheed Martin
    Unit cost M39: $820,000 (FY1998)[2] (or ~$1,476,000 FY2022)
    M57: ~$1,700,000 (FY2021)[3]
    No. built 3,700[4][5]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

    In 2018 as part of their Financials, Lockheed Martin said that over 3850 had been produced by then and only 600 had ever been fired.

    Please provide a cite stating that the US has only a few hundred.

  28. 28.

    Chet Murthy

    @Martin: I remember not so long ago, the US sold some to …. (IIRC) Morocco, instead of delivering them to Ukraine.  It’s not pleasant watching the sausage get made.

  29. 29.

    Jay

    @Martin:

    I doubt that. The US has more Patriot systems mothballed in storage that the entire ROW owns combined.

    Based on the contract numbers, there are over 3099 ATACMS “unaccounted for”  with the only purchased inventory levels not known, are for the US, Greece and Turkey.

    I doubt that at the prices known, that Greece and Turkey have 2700 ATACMS.

    Since 2018, all the US ATACM’s, at a rate of up to 400 a month, have been undergoing full referb and upgrades to the latest Block standard.

  30. 30.

    Jay

    @Chet Murthy:

    Morocco: Ordered 18 M142 HIMARS launchers with 40 M57 ATACMS missile pods along with other MLRS munitions (M30A2 , M31A2) for an estimated cost of 524 million USD in April 2023.[81]

    Lockheed Martin still makes HIMARS and ATACMS. There are 5 more customers for the system in the queue. The last should be delivered in 2030.

  32. 32.

    Martin

    @Chet Murthy: From the wikipedia link:

    In service 1991–present[1]
    Used by
    Australia
    United States
    South Korea
    Morocco
    Romania
    Greece
    Turkey
    Poland
    Ukraine
    United Arab Emirates

    Wars
    Gulf War
    War in Afghanistan
    Iraq War
    Russo-Ukrainian War

    Let’s assume Ukraine was just added. That’s still quite a few countries. Sure, some were pass-throughs but I suspect Australia and SK are proper customers. Also UAE.

    I wasn’t trying to defend any person, just that ‘made’ and ‘in inventory’ are different metrics and we’d expect to be different numbers.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    @Martin:

    Operators

    Operators:
    Current
    Future
    Current operators
    Bahrain: The Royal Bahraini Army purchased 30 M39-series ATACMS in 2000 and 110 M57 ATACMS in 2018.[58][59]
    Greece: The Hellenic Army operates the 165 km variant.[60][61]
    South Korea: In 2002, the South Korean Army purchased 111 ATACMS Block I and 111 ATACMS Block IA missiles for the M270 MLRS.[62][63]
    Romania: The Romanian Land Forces purchased 54 M57 ATACMS, which were all delivered by June 2022.[64][65][66]
    Poland: The Polish Land Forces purchased 30 M57 ATACMS, which were all delivered by June 2022.[67] Another 45 M57 ATACMS were ordered in February 2023.[68]
    Turkey: The Turkish Army[69] uses the ATACMS Block IA.[70][71]
    Qatar: The Qatari Emiri Land Force acquired 60 M57 ATACMS in 2012.[72]
    United Arab Emirates: The United Arab Emirates Army acquired 100 M57 ATACMS in 2014.[73]
    United States: The United States Army and United States Marine Corps are both ATACMS operators.
    Ukraine: The Armed Forces of Ukraine operates ATACMS M39 Block I;[74] these were used in combat for the first time on 17 October 2023.[75]. The longer range ATACMS with bomblets and unitary warheads were also reportedly supplied and used starting in March 2024.[76]
    Future operators
    Australia: In May 2022, Australia ordered 20 M142 HIMARS launchers for the Australian Army with 10 M57 ATACMS unitary rockets and other MLRS munitions in an AU$545m (US$385m) contract.[77][needs update]
    Estonia: A request to buy up to 18 M57 ATACMS was approved in July 2022.[78]
    Latvia: A request to buy 10 M57 ATACMS missile pods was approved in October 2023.[79]
    Lithuania: A request to buy 18 M57 ATACMS missile pods was approved in November 2022.[80]
    Morocco: Ordered 18 M142 HIMARS launchers with 40 M57 ATACMS missile pods along with other MLRS munitions (M30A2 , M31A2) for an estimated cost of 524 million USD in April 2023.[81]
    Taiwan: In October 2020, the U.S. State Department approved the sale of 64 M57 ATACMS to Taiwan.[82][needs update]
    Failed bids
    Finland: A Finnish contract for 70 missiles was canceled due to high prices in March 2014.[83]
    Netherlands: A request to buy 80 M57 ATACMS pods was approved in February 2023. In May 2023 the Royal Netherlands Army purchased 20 PULS rocket artillery systems made by Israel’s Elbit Systems instead.[84][85][86][87][88]

    Yeah, there isn’t supposed to be any math, let alone, basic math, addition and subtraction.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

  34. 34.

    Jay

    @Martin:

    it’s like Patriot batteries.

    Ukraine is begging for 7, (now six) from the EU and the rest, who have 47 in total.

    while the US has 480 mothballed in storage.

  35. 35.

    Parfigliano

    @Jay: So western refusal to fight the war here now.  Wait for the (in their minds) easier war down the road WHICH IS ALWAYS WORSE

  37. 37.

    Jay

    @Parfigliano:

    for some,

    The Baltic States have done some heavy lifting for and before the current get go.

    Canada has no M777 howitzers, because we gave all of them and all our shells to Ukraine. Our guys now train on simulators and 1950’s arty.

    We donated 35% of our tiny “modern” tank fleet of Leopard II’s.

    If the US donated the same amount out of what they have in storage, that would be 1331 Abrams.

    Instead, the US sent 31.

  38. 38.

    Jay

    @Parfigliano:

    Not yet.

    While the US sits on an arsenal of long range “universal” ATACMS, (bunker busters to cluster munitions, selectable) that is constantly being upgraded and referb’d, (at least 2700),

    they are working on a replacement. Hasn’t even entered trials yet.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Typically good assessment by Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment on the nature of the Sino-Russian economic relations, click through to the Twitter thread for links to articles (some of which I have posted before) that expand on the background:

    Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士
    @AlexGabuev

    The fact that Russia will receive 28% less for its gas in China than in Europe, but still seeks to expand gas sales to China, illustrates a dilemma Moscow faces in economic relations with Beijing. Simply put: amid war in Ukraine, there is no alternative to dependency on China. 1/14

    2/ According to this excellent story in @business, Russian government expects to earn 28% less in Chinese market for same amounts of gas than in EU & Turkey. For example, in 2024 it’s $257 vs $320 for 1,000 m2.

    3/ This reality shouldn’t come as a surprise. As my @CarnegieEndow colleague @SergeyVakulenk0 has established in the best to date study on Sino-Russian piped gas pricing formula, a discount benefiting Beijing is nearly pre-programmed in the devil’s bargain.

    4/ But, as @SergeyVakulenk0 concludes, there are no other options available to Gazprom, so it will have to push for expansion of exports to China – including via a new 50 bcm/year pipeline Power of Siberia-2, a deal that the Kremlin hopes to sign soon.

    5/ As Russia is rapidly loosing access to markets and tech imports in the West because of the war and sanctions, Moscow has no other options as doubling down on China – the only country that can provide 1) market; 2) tech; 3) logistics; 4) RMB for trade settlement. All at scale.

    6/ It goes without saying that China can cherry-pick from the menu of cooperation projects with Russia, and it’s Beijing that will set the terms and dictate pace of engagement. For example, Power of Siberia-2 pipe is not likely to be signed in May when Putin goes to Beijing …

    7/ … simply because China wants to extract the lowest take-or-pay level possible, and it can afford to wait given its alternative options to secure energy supply (piped gas, LNG, domestic gas production, other sources of fossil fuels, explosion in renewables use etc.).

    8/ Another issue China is looking at are potential Western sanctions. As long as @POTUS team is focused on China’s support for Russia’s war economy, Beijing doesn’t want to invite more US geoeconomic punches, and thus will stay cautious and selective in dealings with Moscow.

    9/ For example, following @SecYellen visit to China, many Chinese banks, including even Tier-3 local banks, are now tightening the screws when processing payments that involve any Russian counterparts. As a result, Chinese exports to Russia has dropped 15% yoy.

    10/ This trend is likely to continue in the coming months, as @SecBlinken delivers the message again, according to this very helpful reporting by @IanTalley & @AlanCullison in @WSJ. Will that “fix” the problem permanently? Hardly.

    11/ Time and again, Russian and Chinese authorities and businesses have demonstrated remarkable adaptability to Western sanctions. Mitigation of adverse sanctions effects on Sino-russian ties will be one of key topics of Putin’s trip to China next month, and decisions won’t be public.

    12/ A glimpse into Sino-Russian economic integration is in this story by @harrydemps & @maxseddon in @FT on @Norilsk_Nickel plans to move copper smelting production to PRC. “A Chinese good is much harder to sanction in China than a Russian one supplied to China.”

    13/ For those reading in Russian (or in Google translate), I encourage you to read Vladimir Potanin’s (majority stakeholder in @Norilsk_Nickel and Russia’s №5 richest person worth $23.7b) interview in full. Note his response to the last question.

    14/ Why can China be interested in this partnership, despite all the negative impact on ties with the U.S. and Europe? The reasons are complex and extend far beyond trade. I do a deep dive in this issue in my latest for @ForeignAffairs.

  40. 40.

    way2blue

    Whew.  I can hold my head up again, after months of queasiness.  My country, after testing every other storyline.  Finally.  Finally picks the correct one.  Tomorrow I will fret about how this support falls short of what’s needed to end the aggression and make Ukraine whole.  Today I ‘take the win’.  Thanks again, Adam for keeping us focused on the full cost of both Russia’s warmongering and the West’s inertia.

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