(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The three foreign and military aid supplementals and the GOP sort of wishlist bill have now passed the House. The House then immediately went into recess. The Senate will not take them up till Tuesday at the earliest. By not simply bringing the Senate supplemental to a vote, Johnson has instead wasted over four months and given Trump’s supporters in the Senate GOP minority the chance to kill the bill that passed the House this morning. Everyone who is taking victory laps right now should cool it. They are all the same people who took victory laps back in February when the Senate brought up what McConnell and his caucus demanded they had to have: a supplemental aid bill that included significant funding for border security and changes in immigration law. The need to negotiate the border and immigration language had delayed the Senate for three to four months. Ultimately that bill went nowhere because Trump demanded it be killed. So the Senate Democrats stripped the immigration and border provisions out and passed a Ukraine, Israeli, Taiwan/INDOPACOM AOR, and humanitarian aid bill only. Johnson then killed it in the House because it didn’t include anything dealing with the border and immigration.
What the House passed today may pass the Senate this week. It may not pass the Senate this week. We won’t know until Tuesday at the earliest. What we do know is that Putin and Russia will continue to bombard Ukraine. US aid to Ukraine is not a done deal. Hope is not a strategy.
Russia attacked Kharkiv again today. Twice!
This morning in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, began with russian troops destroying an apartment building, injuring a 60-year-old woman. Additionally, a 50-year-old man was killed in a separate attack that destroyed a private home. #ArmUkraineNow #SaveKharkiv pic.twitter.com/8PeXrSf9O7
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 20, 2024
The death toll from russian shelling of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Obl has risen to two, additionally two civilians were wounded this morning
Western media isn't covering this,so please spread the word: Ukraine is paying with human lives for each day's delay in receiving military aid pic.twitter.com/TEOxTPkq5P
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 20, 2024
Explosion reported in Kharkiv! Right now, my hometown is under russian missile attack for the second time in a day!
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 20, 2024
Here’s what Russia thinks it is doing to Kharkiv.
Watch the video and read the subtitles.
One of the most famous Russian propagandists Olga Skabeeva, who has been broadcasting hatred of Ukraine and the West on TV screens for a decade, gave a master class on propaganda for young students in Kaluga.
She openly stated that Russian strikes on Ukraine are just a matter of… pic.twitter.com/gr0gzdOAoF
— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) April 19, 2024
One of the most famous Russian propagandists Olga Skabeeva, who has been broadcasting hatred of Ukraine and the West on TV screens for a decade, gave a master class on propaganda for young students in Kaluga.
She openly stated that Russian strikes on Ukraine are just a matter of interpretation and that the strike itself does not matter, only our attitude towards it.
Thus, Skabeeva paints a picture of Russian propaganda – all statements, regardless of the events described, must favor state interests.
And there is nothing particularly secret about this. However, for the first time, we hear such a frank confession from the main mouthpiece of propaganda of the so-called Russian Federation.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Today, We Received a Decision – the U.S. Assistance, Which Will Be Felt by Both the Warriors on the Frontline, and the Cities and Villages Suffering from Russian Terror – Address by the President
20 April 2024 – 21:30
Dear Ukrainians!
From early morning today, various regions of our country have been experiencing air alerts and Russian strikes. From the east to the south… Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk regions, Kherson and the region, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. Missiles, drone strikes, artillery. There is a lot of destruction — houses, port infrastructure, and energy facilities. There are casualties and, unfortunately, fatalities. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Throughout the day, our air defense system was in action, there were responses to Russian strikes, the rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, and all the services performed their duties.
But this day is still a little different. Today, we received the long-awaited decision: the American support package we’ve been fighting for so hard. And it is a very significant package that will be felt by both our warriors on the frontline and our cities and villages suffering from Russian terror. The U.S. House of Representatives voted today.
I thank everyone who supported our package – this is a life-saving decision. I am grateful personally to Speaker Mike Johnson, to all American hearts who, like us in Ukraine, feel that Russian evil definitely should not prevail. I hope that the package will be considered in the U.S. Senate and submitted to President Biden’s desk quickly enough.
We appreciate every manifestation of support for our state and independence, for our people, and for our lives that Russia wants to bury in ruins. America has shown its leadership from the very first days of this war. And this kind of American leadership is crucial for the maintenance of an international order in the world based on rules and predictability of life for all nations. We will certainly use American support to strengthen both our nations and bring a just end to this war closer – a war that Putin must lose.
And I thank the entire Ukrainian team, everyone who works and does everything to bring this outcome closer. I thank all the representatives of our state, all our diplomats who are working to increase the support for Ukraine, all the representatives of the public sector, every volunteer, all the friends of Ukraine. I am grateful to my team. The world unites for Ukraine when Ukrainians unite for independence.
And today I would like to honor those of our people who have shown their best in the aftermath of the Russian strikes over the week – helping people, protecting lives. These are the employees of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, our medical workers, police officers. Everyone who works on the scene after the hits. Everyone who rescues people from under the rubble, stops fires, and saves the injured. Thank you all!
I would like to mention some of them in particular… Dnipro: Denys Mikheyev, Artem Serha, Dmytro Nikolayenko – these guys are from the State Emergency Service. Vitaliy Arkhypov – an emergency doctor in the Dnipro region, Yevhen Holitsyn – an emergency feldsher. I would also like to mention the police officers: Oleksiy Bondarenko and Vitaliy Andriyanov. Thank you! Karyna Kolisnychenko – a dog handler from the Pavlohrad search and rescue unit. Thank you for every life saved.
Odesa, SES: Yuriy Sukhorukov, Vitaliy Telehus and Artem Kopechynskyi. Thank you, guys!
Chernihiv: Artem Lysenko – a firefighter, Vadym Avramenko and Maksym Zhylko – also employees of the SES in the region, as well as police officers Andriy Vovk and Bohdan Tkachuk. Thank you! I am also grateful to Natalia Nosenok, a nurse who really cares about people and helps them.
I am grateful to everyone who cares about Ukrainians, about life in our country, about their city, their community, about our entire country! And I am especially thankful to each of our warriors. To all those who destroy the Russian occupier, who hold the frontline and thus preserve Ukraine on the world map. We are doing everything to ensure that our warriors have as many opportunities as possible so that this war ends as soon as possible on our terms, Ukrainian terms.
Glory to Ukraine!
I am grateful to the United States House of Representatives, both parties, and personally Speaker Mike Johnson for the decision that keeps history on the right track.
Democracy and freedom will always have global significance and will never fail as long as America helps to…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 20, 2024
I am grateful to the United States House of Representatives, both parties, and personally Speaker Mike Johnson for the decision that keeps history on the right track.
Democracy and freedom will always have global significance and will never fail as long as America helps to protect it. The vital U.S. aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger.
Just peace and security can only be attained through strength.
We hope that bills will be supported in the Senate and sent to President Biden’s desk. Thank you, America!
Hope is not a strategy!
Lithuania:
🇱🇹🇺🇦Today, another shipment of Lithuanian military aid reached Ukraine. We delivered a disassembled light attack aircraft L-39ZA "Albatros" to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. L-39ZA "Albatros" was used in @LTU_Army to train fighter control officers, ensuring pilots' combat readiness. pic.twitter.com/sS3STsu8N2
— Lithuanian MOD 🇱🇹 (@Lithuanian_MoD) April 20, 2024
I’m not sure what the Ukrainians are going to do with just one of these, but every little bit helps.
Our weapons of Victory!
📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/DOM22rYJkV
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 20, 2024
Head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov shared some details about shooting down a Russian strategic bomber at a distance of 300 kilometers.
It was a lengthy and carefully prepared operation.
📹: BBC News Ukrainian https://t.co/pd3SAk1JPK pic.twitter.com/73RGOxP5Qi
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 19, 2024
Novomykhailivka:
Repelling Russian attack on the Novomykhailivka front. Video by the Shadow air reconnaissance unit. https://t.co/LUTJDTWDMe pic.twitter.com/fHqsbENk9P
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 20, 2024
Bakhmut:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1781605192762335512
Russian occupied areas of Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/peterpomeranzev/status/1781708508389417376
Peter Pomerantsev in Time:
After they beat Azat Azatyan so bad blood came out of his ears; after they sent electric shocks up his genitals; after they wacked him with pipes and truncheons, the Russians began to interrogate him about his faith. “When did you become a Baptist? When did you become an American spy?” Azat tried to explain that in Ukraine there was freedom of religion, you could just choose your faith. But his torturers saw the world the same way as their predecessors at the KGB did: an American church is just a front for the American state.
Azat was dragged back to the makeshift cell in the occupied city of Berdiansk, in southern Ukraine, where he was held with six others in a cellar that had a bucket for a toilet and hard mattresses on the floor. The other inmates wondered how he could be religious when the punishments meted out to him were so much worse than to them. Azat answered he felt God was always with him. He prayed for the other inmates to be spared. When the torturers returned they left the others alone but told him to come with them: “This time we will kill you.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is accompanied with a strategic effort to repress, control, and crush religious groups outside of the Kremlin controlled Moscow Patriarchate, the Russian Orthodox Church. There are over thirty cases of religious clergy killed and kidnapped. 109 known cases of interrogations, forced expulsions, imprisonments, arrests. 600 houses of worship destroyed. And these are just the confirmed numbers, with the real ones in information blackout of the occupied territories will much likely be higher.
Evangelicals are targeted by the Russians disproportionally, and Azat’s story is typical for Russia’s systemic persecution of Protestants in occupied Ukraine. Protestants were the victims of 34 percent of the reported persecution events, and 48 percent in the Zaporizhzhia region where Azat was held. Baptists made up 13 percent of victims – the largest single group after Ukrainian Orthodox. Under Russian control 400 Baptist congregations have been lost, 17% of the total in Ukraine.
There’s a reason for this. Protestants flourished in the democratic decades since the end of the U.S.S.R. Baptists are the third largest denomination in Ukraine. The mayor of Kyiv between 2006-2012 was an evangelical. And for the Russian occupiers they are perceived as agents of America.
Petro Dudnyk, Pastor of the Good News Church, explains that the occupying forces “thought and spoke like this: you are the American faith, the Americans are our enemies, the enemies must be destroyed.” Inside Russia Jehovah’s Witnesses are banned, as is missionary work for Mormons. Evangelical groups are constrained by laws banning missionary activity and labelling some groups as “undesirable organizations.” The U.S. Congress Commission on International Religious Freedom considers Russia as one of the world’s “worst violators” of religious freedom, on par with Iran and Pakistan.
What this persecution highlights is that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is more than just the latest iteration of the Kremlin’s centuries old attempt to crush Ukraine’s freedom. It is also part of the Kremlin’s larger war against America. By hurting those who practice an “American” religion the Kremlin can claim it is striking against American power—while picking on the powerless.
“Your church has no right to exist, as it has connections with America and other Western countries,” Russian authorities told the deacon of the Pentecostal church in Nova Kakhovka, Oleksandr Prokopchuk. They arrested him and his 19-year-old son. Both were later found dead in a forest. In occupied Sloviansk four members of the Evangelical Church of the Transformation were accused of being American spies because some U.S. dollars were found in their pockets. They were subsequently shot and killed.
But it’s not just individual clergy Russian forces go after, sometimes it’s whole congregations. As soon as Russia take over a city armed men turn up during prayers. The investigative news outlet, The Counter-Offensive, has reported on the fate of an Adventist congregation in Donetsk, where, the pastor explains, “every week or two there were searches. People would come with machine guns. Sometimes a tank would come. …they said, ‘You are Americans, this is an American church, this is not [a Russian] church. We were treated like dogs. They beat us. Some were killed. Some disappeared.”
When Russian occupying forces shut down the Melitopol Christian Church, they used sledge hammers to break into the building. Members were interrogated as to whether the church was hiding any Americans. The house of worship was expropriated and given to a Russian Ministry. Its fifty foot cross was chopped down. Click here for video.
Sometimes the Russians also try to “cure” protestants. Viktor Cherniiavskyi, was held for 25 days, beaten with a baseball bat and given electro-shocks. A Russian Orthodox priest was present in this process, and tried to cast demons out of him for being an evangelical Christian. The torturers used a taser to help the exorcism along.
The way the priest and the torturer worked together is emblematic of the interconnection between the Russian state and the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. The Moscow Patriarch, Kirill, who was reportedly a KGB agent in the 1970s, has vociferously supported the invasion of Ukraine, openly backs the destruction of Ukraine’s sovereignty and promises Russian soldiers their sins will be washed away. When Russian forces accuse evangelicals of being agents of the U.S. they are projecting how the Moscow patriarchate aids and abets Putin. The tradition of priests working for spy agencies continues with Orthodox priests in Ukraine who report to the Moscow Patriarch have also been found guilty of reporting directly to the Russian security services.
Only 4% of Ukrainians Patriarch remain faithful to Kirill’s Moscow Patriarchate—the vast majority have moved to the Orthodox Church under the Kyiv Patriarchate. Moreover 85% of Ukrainians think that the Moscow branch of the Orthodox Church is a security threat. The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a bill that would prohibit religious organisations that are controlled from a country waging armed aggression against Ukraine. Steven Moore, a former Republican strategist who now runs a center documenting religious crimes in Ukraine, compares the approach to the struggle to legislate against TikTok in the US. According to Moore “Congress wants to ban TikTok unless it gets new ownership. The parliament of Ukraine has drafted a bill to close individual churches affiliated with Russia unless they find ‘new ownership’ and renounce the Russian affiliation.”
But such nuance is lost on some lawmakers and media in America, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson, who accuse the Ukrainian government of attacking religious freedom. It’s a twisted situation thinks Moore: while Russia literally murders and tortures Protestants, Ukraine is attacked for trying to find a balance between religious freedom and security.
When I asked Azat about Americans who think Russia a bastion of Christianity while Ukraine persecutes Christians he shook his head in bemusement: “The Russians have come here to kill and oppress—that is against God’s law, let alone human law.”
Smolensk, Russia:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1781580042255938004
https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1781569004332634555
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
https://twitter.com/PatronDsns/status/1781728102403412470
https://twitter.com/PatronDsns/status/1781745687438209030
MaryLou
Re: house vote.
Happy to take the win .
Andrya
One thing strikes me as extremely important- can the aid bill be filibustered in the Senate? If yes, I expect it’s dead. If no, I can hope (agree, not a strategy!) for the first time in months. Manchin has never (AFAIK) showed signs of being a putin lackey, and if Sinema does one of her fits of unpredictability, I would at least count on Romney’s vote, and probably Murkowski’s as well. (If y’all remember, in 2012 Romney made an issue of Obama being soft on putin- and, dammit, Romney was right about that.)
So, does anyone know if the bill can be filibustered? Or how effectively Rand “Moscow” Paul can delay it?
Adam, thanks for doing this, I’m so glad you pup is doing better, and much though I value these updates, I hope you take at least the first day of Passover off.
japa21
@Andrya: No it can’t be filibustered. It is the Senate bill with amendments. The only thing they do is vote on whether or not to accept the amended bill. However, even if there were a chance it could be filibustered, I highly doubt it would succeed. Nothing is 100%, but I would put it at 95% that by Tuesday evening, arms will be on their way to Ukraine.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
Well, an Ukraine aid package passed the Senate w/ overwhelming bi-partisan support, & an Ukraine aid package (very similar in substance) passed the House w/ overwhelming bi-partisan support. In this case I think it is actually untenable politically for the GOP to hold the aid package to Ukraine hostage indefinitely for regressive/reactionary domestic policies. They will try, but I think they will fold an “indecent” performative interval.
Of course, Ukraine cannot wait…
Another Scott
OTOH, … (repost) – Col. Jeremy Weber – “Hope is not ‘a’ strategy: it’s the only strategy”.
;-)
Schumer says, as you note, the first vote will be Tuesday.
“locked in an agreement to finish” sounds pretty strong to me.
My reading of Fritschner’s comments is that there’s limited opportunity for mischief by the monsters in the Senate because of the way the House amendments package was structured.
(Fritschner is DCoS for Rep Don Beyer.)
TheHill.com:
That’s another indication that the structure is such that opponents can only vote no and cannot gum up with works with excessive delays, IMHO.
As you say, it’s not over. I’m not predicting when the final vote will be. But all signs point to this being on Biden’s desk in the next several days.
I hope your pooch is still recovering well.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
@japa21: Thanks! And thanks to Another Scott too!
MattF
I get the strong impression that the various necessary procedural needles have all been threaded, and large amounts of aid will soon be on the way to Ukraine. We shall see, of course, but it really looks like a nearly-done deal.
Librarian
I don’t see the bill being stopped in the senate. Who will stop it- Rand Paul? Ted Cruz? JD Vance? Blackburn? Tuberville? Whoever tries to stop it, I don’t see them getting much support.
MattF
@Librarian: Could a small group attempt an actual filibuster? That is, just continual talking? It could be stopped, but I suppose that would require a vote and cause some delay.
Gin & Tonic
The only US Representative in history who was born and raised in Ukraine, Victoria Spartz (R – IN), voted against the aid bill. There’s a special place in Hell reserved for her.
Another Scott
@MattF:
There isn’t too much out there about the next process in the Senate that I have been able to find. There is this RollCall.com piece from yesterday.
We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Nukular Biskits
Adam, do you think that the approval of more aid for Ukraine by the US House will cause Putin to up the tempo/severity of his attacks?
Also, interesting read about how Russians view American evangelicals. Particularly ironic, given that so many self-identified “conservatives” who oppose assisting Ukraine also self-identify as evangelical Christians.
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
That’s Dante’s Ninth Circle, the lake of ice.
cain
@Gin & Tonic:
Wow .. I doubt she will ever be face any UKR expats or go to UKR. Way to fuck yourself.
slybrarian
Thanks for the update as always, Adam.
What’s strange to me is the degree to which the Murdoch press seems to be suddenly in favor of Ukraine aid and bashing MTG as a Putin stooge. Did something scare them so much that they’re willing to go against what Trump wants, even indirectly?
Argiope
@cain: Evidently she’d rather go to Russia. Wonder if that’s the endgame…
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: It can be filibustered.
Westyny
Thanks, Adam. Best to Rosie. Hope is not a strategy, nevertheless I do have it.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: It is not the Senate bill with amendments. It is four separate bills that under the House rule will be sent over as a single bill of bills, basically an omnibus. Even the three that only deal with aid have differences from the Senate bill. The Senate will take these up as new legislation. So it will have to go through the regular order of the Senate.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: He’s wrong. Also, the guy who set up that website and the initiative behind it at USAWC is a loon. His department chair tried to shut him down and get rid of him shortly after he was hired as he was wrongly qualified to be on the faculty. Unfortunately he had begun a very successful brown nosing campaign with some of the most senior faculty and now he’s dug in like a tick.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: Yes, yes it will.
wjca
Because all the Senate is doing is Agreeing to House Amendments, there’s not much any of these scum can do, however much they want to. A couple of them may take the full one hour each Senator is allowed to speak. But even if every Republican Senator did that (they won’t) that’s barely 48 hours they can delay things.
I won’t be happy, let alone turning victory laps, until it’s got Biden’s signature on it, and the supplies start moving. But at this point, there isn’t a lot Putin’s tools can do to delay things much further.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
That’s pretty much what I’m thinking as well.
That being the case (and I have no reason to think otherwise), I certainly hope that the US starts moving lethal aid to Ukraine posthaste.
Would any of that aid include glide bombs? Or does the Ukrainian air force currently have the assets to launch those?
ETA: I think I may have ask this on a previous occasion but how on earth do you find the time to do this? I think it’s an excellent round up/synopsis of where things stand on a daily basis and I know you are a busy individual with (hopefully) a life. Hell, it’s all I can do to find time to cut the grass after a 40-hr workweek and you do this EVERY NIGHT!
wjca
I admit to having only an amateur’s expertise on this. But what I’ve understood is that the House bills were carefully structured as amendments to the bill that previously passed the Senate. Which would avoid regular order in the Senate for a whole new bill.
Adam L Silverman
@wjca: Did the House take up the Senate bill and then amend it? No. These are not amendments, they’re new and different bills
That said, whatever the Senate parliamentarian decides these are will be the determining factor.
Traveller
I would like to add somewhat of a different perspective to the United State’s delay…as criminal as it might have been….it did have an unanticipated benefit in that it seems to me that in this interregnum Ukraine put to a lie the idea that much of Mother Russia was off limits, that the war could be fought almost exclusively on Ukrainian territory and would be so fought for fear of the Mighty Bear awakening.
Ha! This was the American position and as the most crucial ally of Ukraine Independence and Survival, it was an idea that the Ukrainians felt bound to obey.
But now long range ATACMS’s are actually written into law…and the Ukrainians have for months now been setting alight a dozen Russian oil refineries, munition plants, air fields, etc, are all now fair game and may be attacked at will.
There was no huge Russian menace, no red lines that couldn’t be crossed, (except of course, purely civilian targets).
Ukraine is free now of unfair American restraints and fears…
I am happy to see that just today the Smolensk Oil Depot is fully ablaze, Kursk oil lines seem to be on fire outside the city, and a major Russian air base in Crimea has successfully been attacked. I am not sure that these operations would have been carried out without this great pause in American support.
Ukraine has a new agency and freedom of action in attacking Russia directly. Slava Ukraini. Traveller
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman:
The House rules for the votes today:
In effect, yes, the House was voting on amendments to the Senate supplemental. It’s not regarded as a new bill (or 4 new bills). That eases the process in the Senate because it’s not a new bill.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
wjca
@Another Scott: Thanks, Scott.
I was pretty sure what they had done, but not the mechanics of how they did it.
Jay
@Traveller:
Ukraine is still being “geofenced” by Melon Skum, (who is selling Starlinks to the ruZZians), the US supplied and is supplying the ATACMS M39 Block I, (165 km max range) not the later models with max ranges of 270 to 300km, Germany is still sitting on the Taurus.
All the strikes into ruZZia have been done with indigenous Ukrainian drones and missiles.
The TU-22M recently shot down over ruZZia, was shot down by a Ukrainian modified S-2 Guideline missile, (from the 1960’s) not a Patriot.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: The A-50U downed over the Sea of Azov was shot down by a modified S-200. Quite impressive, both Ukrainian ingenuity in making do w/ what they have, & Russian complacency & incompetence.
Traveller
@Jay:
“All the strikes into ruZZia have been done with indigenous Ukrainian drones and missiles.”
What you say is true…yet I see Germany sending, or saying they will send, an additional 6 Patriot Batteries which will be distinctly helpful.
I am hoping that the Ukrainian shopping list is well drawn up. I have seen that Bradley Fighting Vehicles are possibly more valuable on the battlefield than Abrams tanks and may have greater suitability also.
I would also hope to see accounting tricks or, more accurately, with more honesty….if we are sending 2nd tier stuff, the short range ATACMS this should have a marked down value.
In other words, if before numbers may have been inflated to show how generous the US was being with supplies and armaments…now, if any item can be knocked down in value for whatever reason, it should be.
And I suppose Yes, maybe US weapons will still be used exclusively within country….but if this frees up the Ukrainian manufacturing base for more long range missiles, then this might be good also.
But I will circle back to what I have been saying for a while…the only real essential in battle or warfare is hope…maybe misjudged hope, maybe flawed and bad reasoning, but the loss of hope with doom any Army.
I know there are a lot of negatives but hope and faith in a better tomorrow is all that holds forces together…we must maintain and generously feed this psychic need if there is to be any kind of victory at all. Sigh…or so I hope. Best Wishes, Traveller
wjca
Adam is right when he says the “hope is not a strategy.” Right, but incomplete. Because, as you say, without hope no strategy will succeed.
teezyskeezy
@Andrya: Filibusters can be broken with 60 votes. That requires less than half of the republicans, even if Manchin acts up. My feeling is that they will kill any filibusters quickly and move.
Sanjeevs
@Another Scott: Thanks – good news
teezyskeezy
@Traveller: I would agree that Russia blusters and bluffs a lot about going nuclear and they are actually as scared of that situation as they should be, but at the same time, we still don’t know exactly how that cornered animal will be if they “lose,” by whatever criteria that is to be measured. I see no way forward other than to to push back against their aggression (because otherwise we would have to deal with the same threat in a worse position later), but at the same time, there’s a nagging anxiety that maybe there is no good ending.
Jay
@Traveller:
In one of the last “tranches” sent to Ukraine last summer resulted from The Pentagon not properly depreciating weapons sent to Ukraine, so $400 million was “found”.
Traveller
@teezyskeezy: Yes, teezyskeezy, I share your anxiety in these regards. But No Good Ending, is not A Disastrous Ending either.
There is a continuum here, some of which I will find acceptable…not maybe Good, not maybe all I want, but still acceptable.
It is for this reason I more or less support the State Dept or DOD spokesperson saying that the US does not support targeting or attacks within Russia itself…it is trying to give some breathing room and separation from the idea that the United States is in a direct war with Russia.
At first this pissed me off when I heard it recently, and yet, there is probably real value in trying to maintain this fiction. Yes, your worry about No Good Ending are valid…but we can try to avoid as much as possible any hard landing. Best Wishes, Traveller
Andrya
@teezyskeezy: Thanks, that really cheers me up. I’m pretty sure we’d get Romney and Murkowski, probably Collins- it might not be impossible to get 4-5 more.
YMMV, but I’m much more worried about Sinema than Manchin. Manchin has made strong pro-Ukraine statements and I don’t see why he would change his mind. Sinema (in the words of one of my brothers) is “the kid in daycare who breaks all the toys”.
Also, I have some confidence that Hakeem Jeffries knows what he’s doing. He must have given Johnson a promise that Democrats would save his speakership- otherwise Johnson would have continued to stall. I can’t believe Minority Leader Jeffries would have extended such a promise in return for a useless bill that would die due to filibuster.
Still, as Adam rightly says, hope is not a strategy.
wjca
I would say that the criteria for “lose” that matters is the Russian view. Just losing this particular invasion seems unlikely to be a sufficient trigger; they lost in Afghanistan, and just left to lick their wounds.
The critical factor is what Russia would consider an existential loss. That is, a loss after which the very existance of Russia was in doubt.
Getting kicked out of Ukraine, even including being expelled from Crimea, wouldn’t be that.** Russia would be as paranoid as ever about being surrounded by enemies. (Except it isn’t exactly paranoia if it’s true — enemies created by Russias own behavior (c.f. Finland joining NATO), but definitely hostile.) But not panicked to the point of lashing out.
** With the substantial caveat that, while it wouldn’t be an existential loss for Russia, it might be an existential loss for Putin personally. Whether he would use nukes against another country in the case of a serious coup attempt is unknown. Always assuming he had enough warning to try to do so.
wjca
I’m not distressed by those US comments either. Although I do hope that, in private conversations, we are saying something like “We feel it necessary to make these public statements. You should ignore them.” Which I suspect the Ukrainians would anyway — striking Russian oil infrastructure, and Russian military infrastructure is too obviously a military necessity.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
teezyskeezy
@wjca: Caveats unnecessary since you won’t have to apologize if wrong. ;-)
teezyskeezy
@Andrya:
Well, if I’m wrong…sorry.
sab
Your brother had such an apt description of Sinema.
NotoriousJRT
@Traveller: very late in commenting, obviously but if hope is not a strategy, WTF is despair? I’ve seen what happens to folks when hope is absent. It seems to me that hope is the foundation of all the Ukrainians have managed to accomplish. So, I never dismiss it and hang on to it with all my pitiful might.
Another Scott
@NotoriousJRT:
+1
The pithy saying is a category error, IMHO.
“Gasoline is not a Chainsaw!!” makes as much sense. Yes, Gasoline is not a Chainsaw, but it is pretty difficult to run a (n internal combustion) chainsaw without it.
FWIW (and probably not very much).
Cheers,
Scott.