• Menu
  • Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • About Us
  • Lexicon
  • Contact Us
  • Our Store
  • ↑
  • ↓

Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

He really is that stupid.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

I would gladly pay you tuesday for a hamburger today.

We still have time to mess this up!

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

Human rights are not a matter of opinion!

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

White supremacy is terrorism.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Books are my comfort food!

Mobile Menu

  • 2026 Targeted Political Fundraising
  • Donate with Venmo, Zelle & PayPal
  • Site Feedback
  • War in Ukraine
  • Submit Photos to On the Road
  • Politics
  • On The Road
  • Open Threads
  • Topics
  • Authors
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Lexicon
  • Our Store
  • Politics
  • Open Threads
  • 2026 Activism
  • Garden Chats
  • On The Road
  • Targeted Fundraising!
Changing of the Stars

Science & Technology

Photo courtesy of BillinGlendaleCA.com
You are here: Home / Archives for Science & Technology

Open Thread: Riding With Artemis

by Anne Laurie|  April 2, 20263:43 am| 49 Comments

This post is in: Something Good, Space

LAUNCH! ARTEMIS II LAUNCHES WITH A CREW OF 4 TOWARDS THE MOON

[image or embed]

— NASASpaceflight.com (@nasaspaceflight.com) April 1, 2026 at 6:39 PM

Clothing design is always fascinating…
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/31/s…

[image or embed]

— Anne Laurie (@annelaurie.bsky.social) April 2, 2026 at 3:26 AM

Gift link:

… Though much of the spacesuit-related attention thus far has been levied on the white spacewalk suits being created by Prada and Axiom Space, it is the orange suits that may be the more eye-catching — by design…

The suits, which function as mini life-support systems (astronauts can live in them for 144 hours, if necessary), were custom-made to each astronaut’s physique by NASA engineers. They also feature reflective, sky-blue accent stripes that form a heroic V at the torso and circle the thighs and the upper arms, where they emphasize the armadillo-like articulation of the shoulders.

Not that the blue is merely decorative. The V indicates external straps for rescue crews to grab onto, and blue pouches that look like external batteries contain life preservers and backup oxygen bottles. And the hue is a vivid contrast to the orange, adding a further flex to the suit’s primary shade…

Officially known as AMS Standard 595 color #FS 12197, according to a U.S. federal government standard created for paint, International Orange is described by Merriam-Webster as “a vivid reddish orange,” deeper than safety cone orange or fluorescent orange and specifically meant to stand out against ocean and sky blues…

The Air Force embraced the color in the 1970s, using it for high-altitude pressure suits — the orange facilitated water rescues — and it finally made its way to NASA when the Challenger disaster in 1986 prompted the agency to explore new safety measures. Previous launch and re-entry suits had been white, but the efficacy of orange in search and rescue was impossible to ignore. (The NASA EVA suits, which are worn by astronauts for spacewalks on the International Space Station, remain white because the color repels heat more effectively.) By 1988, the International Orange suits had appeared, complete with a new nickname: “pumpkin suits.”…

This is very cool! I hear getting a patch is a big deal in nasa/space culture so WOOT to Anishinaabe artist Henry Guimond for sending them off in a good way. (quoted article gives good context for the designs)

[image or embed]

— Joanne Hammond (@joannehammond.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 8:21 PM

Per Space.com, “‘The sasquatch is honesty’: Inside Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen’s Artemis 2 mission patch”:

… Jeremy Hansen, who is with the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), will fly as a mission specialist on the Artemis 2 mission alongside three NASA astronauts: Reid Wiseman (the Artemis 2 commander), pilot Victor Glover (who will become the first Black person to leave low Earth orbit, or LEO) and mission specialist Christina Koch (the first woman to do so). Hansen will become the first non-American to leave LEO.

There are many mission patches flying with the astronaut quartet, with all four sporting the Artemis 2 main mission patch as well as a “Freedom 250” commemorative patch marking the year 2026, the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. And Hansen’s flight suit patches include a special one symbolizing the meaning of the Artemis 2 mission for himself and his country, including Indigenous communities with whom he has spent time as a CSA astronaut…

The patch, CSA explains, has “elements of Anishinaabe culture.” These are not meant to represent all aspects of First Nations, Inuit and Métis culture, but they do show “the importance of traditional knowledge and Indigenous Peoples in Canada.” The patch was created by Anishinaabe artist Henry Guimond of Sagkeeng First Nation in Manitoba. Dave Courchene III (Sabe), the leader of the Turtle Lodge in Sagkeeng First Nation, also contributed to the patch.

Hansen said the patch incorporates one element of Anishinaabe perspectives — the culture’s seven sacred laws, as represented by the heptagonal shape of the patch, as well as seven animals.

“Just quickly: The buffalo represents respect. The eagle, love. The bear is courage. The sasquatch is honesty. The beaver is wisdom. The wolf is humility, and the turtle is truth. None of us are perfect. We’re not always able to walk in that integrity, but if we strive to, they will bring a rich life for each of us.” (More information about the animals’ meaning is available on the CSA webpage.)…

(I’m a little sad the mountain lion / bobcat didn’t make the cut, but everyone gets to choose their own spirit animals… )

Open Thread: Riding With ArtemisPost + Comments (49)

Something Nice Open Thread: Artemis Has Launched Successfully

by Anne Laurie|  April 1, 20268:44 pm| 36 Comments

This post is in: Something Good Open Thread, Space

"Humanity's next great voyage begins" #Artemis

[image or embed]

— Katie Mack (@astrokatie.com) April 1, 2026 at 6:39 PM

I was saving this for a pick-me-up after my previous SCOTUS post, so of course y’all decided to talk about the Artemis launch in *that* thread, and no doubt as soon as I hit publish on this one Cole will stomp me. Don’t care, says the sf nerd girl, this is still *FANTASTIC CONTENT*!

The Artemis II space mission has officially launched 🚀
• They will go one swing around the Moon and back (no landing)
• Mission will last ~10 days
• Next step is to land on the Moon — then eventually establish a Moon base

[image or embed]

— Culture Crave 🍿 (@culturecrave.co) April 1, 2026 at 6:45 PM

[image or embed]

— paulpro (@mariopro.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM

This is the photo, the moment, the unspoken comment on where we actually fit in this universe.
It's been waaaaaaaaay way way too long since we've done this.

[image or embed]

— Nolan Hicks (@ndhapple.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 6:43 PM

🚀 Artemis II is safely in orbit! 🚀 A daring 10-day voyage will take four astronauts on a loop around the moon and set the stage for future forays

show full post on front page

to the lunar surface

[image or embed]

— Scientific American (@sciam.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 6:45 PM

“"We have visual on a beautiful moonrise, and we're headed right for it!"
At 10,000 MPH, the first humans to fly Artemis are headed to a speed and a distance no human has experienced ever before

[image or embed]

— The Overseer Class is now available for pre-order (@thrasherxy.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 6:50 PM


Picture of the day today is from Cheryl McKenzie of grandmother moon over the Manitoba Interlake region.
And wishing safe travels to the crew of Artemis II after their successful launch as they travel to this beautiful space rock for their 10-day voyage!

[image or embed]

— APTN News (@aptnnews.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 6:44 PM

Today’s Artemis II launch marks a major step forward in space exploration.
I have had the privilege of spending time with this crew and seeing their discipline and commitment up close. As they begin this mission, I am wishing them a safe journey and a safe return home.

[image or embed]

— Kamala Harris (@kamalaharris.com) April 1, 2026 at 6:46 PM

Godspeed to the Artemis II crew, and congratulations to the talented civil servants and scientists at NASA who worked so hard to make this launch a success.
Without their expertise and dedication, none of this would be possible.

[image or embed]

— Robert Reich (@rbreich.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 7:01 PM

Our country has never been more divided, but Americans across the spectrum of backgrounds, regions, religions, ideologies, and all our other myriad differences just watched Artemis II launch and felt proud. That's pretty great. Thanks, NASA.

— Charlotte Clymer (@charlotteclymer.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 7:01 PM

Watching the Artemis launch, I unexpectedly found myself recalling the excitement, apprehension and sense of unquantifiable possibilities felt by the little girl I was watching the Apollo missions, muted by the intervening decades, as if I were hearing once familiar music playing a long way off.

— Juliet E McKenna (@julietemckenna.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 7:04 PM

watched the artemis launch in an auditorium full of elementary schoolers and honestly i can’t think of a better way to experience it

— dr. caitlin m. green (@caitlinmoriah.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 6:56 PM

The #ArtemisII crew has launched on their way to the Moon. Read what they'll do next and what is up with NASA's Moon base plans:
www.nature.com/articles/d41… 🧪🔭

[image or embed]

— Alexandra Witze (@alexwitze.bsky.social) April 1, 2026 at 6:47 PM

The people who toiled night and day to put astronauts on the moon during Apollo are thrilled that NASA is finally going back.

[image or embed]

— The Associated Press (@apnews.com) March 30, 2026 at 1:00 PM

Something Nice Open Thread: Artemis Has Launched SuccessfullyPost + Comments (36)

Sunday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  March 29, 20267:12 am| 278 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality, Republicans in Disarray!, Space

[image or embed]

— The Associated Press (@apnews.com) March 28, 2026 at 7:30 PM

The four astronauts making NASA's next lunar leap bear little resemblance to the Apollo era.

[image or embed]

— The Associated Press (@apnews.com) March 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM

If the estimates were right, there were about 9 million people at No Kings rallies today.
That would mean this protest was THIRTY TIMES AS LARGE AS THE TEA PARTY PROTEST which we were told, over and over again, was a massively important sign that US politics had shifted dramatically to the right

[image or embed]

— Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) March 28, 2026 at 6:33 PM

we focus a lot on how these are galvanizing events for the good guys but don’t sleep on how demoralizing they are for the bad guys, too

[image or embed]

— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) March 28, 2026 at 11:54 AM

Seeing a million people turn out and snake through a large city is very cool, I won’t deny that

but my favorite genre of post during these protests is “small town in a red state with the biggest crowd anyone has ever seen”

you can ignore a march in Washington. it's a lot harder to ignore a march on Main Street.

— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) March 28, 2026 at 11:56 AM

there’s a reason they call it demonstrating

— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) March 28, 2026 at 12:07 PM

The Trump War Tax is being slapped on plane tickets, mail, fertilizer, and gas. It’s entirely preventable—but Trump doesn’t give a damn that his reckless, illegal war is making life even less affordable here at home.

[image or embed]

— Rep. Jim McGovern (@repmcgovern.bsky.social) March 28, 2026 at 2:02 PM

He says he wants to bring meritocracy back to our military. He says he has our warfighters' backs.
But here he is, the most unqualified SecDef in history, denying troops a promotion that their fellow warfighters decided they've earned.
Hegseth is a disgrace to our heroes.

[image or embed]

— Tammy Duckworth (@duckworth.senate.gov) March 27, 2026 at 2:08 PM

I will hold Mullin to every single one of his promises, including revoking Noem's senseless FEMA policy that delayed aid to families in need.

[image or embed]

— Senator Andy Kim (@kim.senate.gov) March 28, 2026 at 3:39 PM

Andrew Belcher, president of the Ohio College Republicans said Trump is doing “relatively poorly” with hyper online young men who are influenced heavily by media figures like Tucker Carlson and other isolationists in the GOP.
www.politico.com/news/2026/03…

[image or embed]

— Eric Michael Garcia (@ericmgarcia.bsky.social) March 28, 2026 at 12:19 PM

Sunday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (278)

Respite: Antimatter To Go Edition

by Tom Levenson|  March 25, 20264:12 pm| 120 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Respite, Science & Technology

I’ve got a ton of rage-inducing stuff in the pipeline which I hope to start putting up here and there soon. But I promised some respite, and I’m a content-generator of my (often deadline-missing) word, so here’s a bit of fun for your Wednesday afternoon.

Humankind has just witnessed its latest never-before achievement. Yesterday a truck hit the road within the CERN campus near Geneva. It was transporting very, VERY carefully a cargo created within that laboratory, Europe’s particle physics research center.

That cargo was antimatter. To be precise, that truck transported a grand total of 92 antiprotons, produced in a facility at CERN known informally as the antimatter factory.

Antimatter is just like the ordinary matter you and I are made of, but for one crucial difference: each of its particles has the opposite charge of its ordinary matter counterpart. An antiproton has a negative charge instead of the positive charge of the protons in the nuclei in every atom in our bodies/the universe, for example. (There are a handful of other reversed properties, but that’s the gist.)

One other thing: matter and its anti- counterpart really, REALLY don’t like each other. If an anti-proton comes into contact with a scrap of ordinary matter, it goes BOOM!—the two particles annihilate.

Respite: Antimatter To Go Edition

So antimatter is hard to make in a world full of the other stuff, and once created (which CERN does by ramming protons into metal targets and then capturing a small fraction of the anti-protons created in the flash of collision energy), is even harder to preserve.

To simplify a lot, the way to hang on to antimatter in this vale of tears is to trap it in such a way that it never comes into contact with its surroundings. Doing so requires extreme cold—four degrees K above absolute zero; as near a complete vacuum as technically achievable; and superconducting magnets to hold the antiprotons in a tight enough grasp to ensure they never strike the sides of the containment vessel.

This is not an easy task in a lab. Now imagine what it would take if an antiproton developed an urge for going.* The need to figure out how to transport antimatter arose because the CERN is an electromagnetically busy place, and some of the experiments researchers hoped to perform with antimatter couldn’t be done except in a much more pristine setting—which is being built in Dusseldorf, Germany, 700 kilometers from Geneva.

So the laboratory’s antimatter folks found themselves in the trucking business. Getting antiprotons to become rolling cargo involved designing a traveling version of the containment technology used in the lab. Today marked the first test of the system. A box truck set off on what accumulated into a half-hour, eight kilometer drive—a careful journey, topping out at forty-two kilometers per hour.

Antimatter is implicated in a range of fundamental questions, among them, why there is so much matter and so little antimatter in our universe (which is a good thing from a wholly selfish point of view; if the Big Bang had generated equal amounts of both forms of matter, as some calculations suggest it could have, then there’d be nothing in our neighborhood but the residue of the vast mutual annihilation of the two species of particles). So there’s a lot riding on the ability first to create a storable stock of antiparticles and then to get it into the right environment for ultra-precise measurement.

A five mile jaunt on a secured right of way is only the beginning. It will be a while yet before you can DoorDash an order of anti-hydrogen with some frites on the side. But it is amazing for all of that. Human beings have managed to reach into the realm previously reserved for action on a cosmological scale—and now the antimatter show has hit the road.

To put this another way: we just witnessed the Winter Olympics. We saw extraordinarily accomplished people do exceptional things. While almost every last person watching will never attempt, much less land, a quad axel or a 1620 rotation on a freestyle jump, it is thrilling to witness, to know it can be done.

Same here, learning of those 92 antiprotons made it out and back safely using machinery that is at the very limit of what humankind knows how to build.

More detail at the source for this post.

*Inevitable soundtrack. Inevitable alternate soundtrack.

Image: Joseph Stevens, Enemies, 1854

Respite: Antimatter To Go EditionPost + Comments (120)

Trumpery Open Thread: Iran Does Not Have Nukes

by Anne Laurie|  March 2, 20266:14 pm| 152 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Rofer on Nuclear Issues

If Trump hadn’t torn up the Iran deal, those 6 American soldiers would still be alive

[image or embed]

— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes.bsky.social) March 2, 2026 at 4:46 PM

Time to say it again!

[image or embed]

— Cheryl Rofer (@cherylrofer.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:11 PM

Former front-pager Cheryl Rofer, now posting at Lawyers, Guns & Money:

It’s time to say it again: It’s highly doubtful that the Iranians were pursuing a nuclear weapon. And they certainly don’t have any.

Donald Trump says that (one of the purposes/ the purpose) of his attack on Iran is to make sure they never get a nuclear weapon. He has also tried to look reasonable by saying “All they have to do is say they will not build a nuclear weapon.”

Iran has done that second thing already, by ratifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. When North Korea decided to build nuclear weapons, they withdrew from the treaty. Iran has threatened to withdraw, but they haven’t. This is a signal of their intention not to build nuclear weapons.

Trump’s insistence seems more like that of a middle-school boy sitting on another, hollering “Say uncle.” Big strong ayatollahs must come to Trump with tears in their eyes and say it.

Iran had a nuclear weapons program up until 2003 and then gave it up. Iran has said that. Western intelligence services have said that…

All along, there have been factions within Iran that wanted a bomb, mainly in the IRGC. But Ayatollah Khamanei has said several times that nuclear weapons are forbidden by Islam, another expression of that statement Donald Trump says he wants.

I have seen reports that the current negotiators, whose expertise is in real estate, not nuclear issues, may have misunderstood Iran’s recent offers and seemed not to know what the IAEA was. It’s a subject for specialists, which is why specialists were included in the 2014-2015 negotiations.

Iran hasn’t been working toward a bomb. They have played a negotiation based on an understanding that a bomb could be one outcome of their work. The subtlety of that produced the JCPOA. It doesn’t work with a regime whose basic mode of operation is that of gangsters.

what in the world

[image or embed]

— Mike Black (@mikeblack114.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 7:44 PM

this is also true for 90% of the military's understanding of military affairs tbh

[image or embed]

— thinkingbayonet.bsky.social (@thinkingbayonet.bsky.social) March 1, 2026 at 9:06 PM

Probably not related, but it has been noted today that The World’s Most Dangerous Cranky Grandpa has a new health issue. If the neck rash is shingles, I understand that they are very painful & liable to make victims (more) cranky. How fortunate that Trump has the best medical care available to him!

whoa — this is new. Trump has a significant rash-like injury on his neck today in addition to his disfigured hand
(Saul Loeb/Getty)

[image or embed]

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) March 2, 2026 at 12:47 PM

Trumpery Open Thread: Iran Does Not Have NukesPost + Comments (152)

Excellent Read: Mars, Beyotches!

by Anne Laurie|  March 1, 202611:41 pm| 90 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Space

Link here https://t.co/3Is5Q8Q1gI. (I shared this yesterday, but forgot that this site spikes such links)

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) February 27, 2026

So. Many. Moving. Parts!…Maciej Cegłowski, aka Pinboard, at his SubStack Mars for the Rest of Us, with “A Primer on Long-Duration Life Support”:

Life support is the biggest technical obstacle to the human exploration of Mars.

This fact makes people mad, because there are all kinds of other obstacles that are fun to solve (orbital refueling, landing heavy payloads, making rocket fuel out of Martian air), and life support has a fun factor of zero. It is a thankless world of dodgy sensors, failing bearings, and bacteria trying to grow on absolutely everything.

But if we want to get to Mars alive, we need for this stuff to work.

Requirements
An astronaut in space needs 840 grams of oxygen, 2.8 kilos of water, and 1.8 kilos of dried food a day to stay alive. They also appreciate the little touches, like water to wash with (0.7 kg), fresh clothes (1.5 kg per week), wet wipes (0.2 kg/day) and a toilet (1.4 kg for canisters and wipes).

On the output side, each astronaut exhales around a kilo of carbon dioxide and pees out a liter and a half of urine. They also produce a fairly small quantity of feces and menses (though many women opt to medically induce amenorrhea during space flight)…

On shorter missions like Apollo (~12 days) or Shuttle flights (~14 days) it makes sense to pack everything a crew needs with no attempts at recycling. In this paradigm, carbon dioxide can be scrubbed from the cabin air with disposable lithium hydroxide cartridges; everything else is carried along in the space version of a picnic basket.

On longer missions, trying to carry single-use supplies gets unwieldy. A crew of four on a 1,000 day mission to Mars would need 48 tons of consumables, about equal to the mass of the entire spacecraft. And even if mass were unlimited, there simply wouldn’t be enough room to fit everything on board.

So past a threshold of about 30 days, you have to make some attempt at recycling…

Food
Food may be my favorite technical barrier to Mars travel, because everyone assumes it has been solved, or that it is easy to solve, while the people working on it mop the sweat from their brow during the day and try keep the shaking in their hands from rattling the ice cubes in their whisky glass at night.

Astronauts have hated space food ever since the first meat cubes came back uneaten from Project Gemini. Even on the ISS, where fresh foods are often available, getting crews to eat adequately is a struggle. Whether it’s because the stomach senses satiety differently in zero gravity, or because the space station smells like a toilet, crews have historically consumed only 80% of their rations.

On a multiyear mission, such a calorie level would lead to malnutrition and embarrassing deficiency diseases like space scurvy. So we need to come up with ready-to-eat meals that are nutritious, storable for five years without refrigeration, and appetizing enough that a crew can eat them for a thousand days without wanting to murder each other.

These kinds of meals don’t exist. Their closest equivalent is the military meal ready-to-eat (MRE). But as any soldier or prepper will tell you, an MRE is not something you can subsist on. The meals are not nutritionally complete, and soldiers’ own backronym for the combat ration (meals refusing to exit) sheds light on a notorious shortcomings. Defense department guidelines stress that soldiers should not be fed MREs for more than 21 days at a time…

Much more information, and useful charts, at the link. (I am mildly fixated on the fact that astronauts use the same indicator for discarding their disposable undergarments that my teenager brothers used to decide when to change theirs.)

Excellent Read: <em>Mars, Beyotches!</em>Post + Comments (90)

Respite: At Play in the Fields of the LLMs

by Tom Levenson|  March 1, 20266:17 pm| 109 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Respite, Technology, General Stupidity

ETA: This was written for Balloon Juice but is crossposted at Inverse Square.

So…

Just this week I learned that through my home institution I have access to a suite of LLMs, including all the usual suspects (Anthropic’s Claude, OpenAI’s ChapGPT, Meta’s Llama, and Google’s Gemini. MIT’s come up with a very nice interface to interact with all this artificial talent, and I’ve spent a couple of hours this weekend taking some of them out for a spin. (I’m avoiding OpenAI’s offerings both as a trivial protest and because I don’t trust anything about that company.

So far I’ve enjoyed Claude the most (the Haiku 4.5 model, if you’re wondering). Gemini is interesting, if a bit finicky. But what made me howl was the encounter I just had with Llama, Mr. Zuckerberg’s contribution to the genre. Context: over the holidays I  had a conversation with a senior person at another magnificent 7 tech firm who’d just seen a colleague leave to go to Meta who was utterly dismissive of the company and relieved to be rid of anyone dumb enough (in his view) to basically end his career in top-tier tech by grabbing Facebook bucks. Spoiler: after what you’ll read below, I can see where my friend was coming from.

So here’s the setup. I’ve been asking the various models what I hope are zero-consequence questions, queries in which no one could possibly get hurt if the LLMs wing their way to utter bollocks. A typical ask: map out the logical structure Einstein used in his 1905 light quantum behavior. That one tended to get an initial poor answer based on the idea that the paper centers on the then-pressing mystery of the photoelectric effect–a common mistake for people as well as machines. Pressing the models led Claude in particular to a much more sophisticated account of the paper drawing attention to the way Einstein used arguments from thermodynamics to propose the necessity of understanding light as discrete packets of energy.

Respite: At Play in t

The paper was about this new “heuristic” [Einstein’s term] view of light, and the photoelectric effect appears only as one experimental support for that view. (Much more here.)

After three or four trips through the query engineering needed to get a useful result I’d found my way down the list of models at my disposal to Meta’s Llama.  I was bored with light quanta and so asked a different, much simpler question:

“When a stock is overvalued as defined by a price to earnings ratio a standard deviation or more higher than historical market norms for that company’s sector, what are the typical events or analyses that drive that share price back down to the norm?”

Llama gave me a very stock answer that would have been at home in a high school economics class, so I decided to become a little more pointed in my pursuit:

Given that analysis, how would you explain Tesla’s long run of share prices between one and two orders of magnitude over that of other and much larger and more profitable car companies, like Toyota?

What followed was…first unimpressive and then hilarious. See for yourselves below the jump:

show full post on front page

Tesla’s Valuation Puzzle

Tesla’s share price has been a subject of fascination and debate, with its valuation often being significantly higher than that of other automakers, including Toyota. To understand this phenomenon, let’s examine the factors that have contributed to Tesla’s premium valuation.

Growth and Disruption

  1. Pioneering electric vehicles (EVs): Tesla was one of the first companies to successfully mass-produce EVs, creating a new market and disrupting the traditional automotive industry.
  2. Innovative technology: Tesla has been at the forefront of EV technology, with advancements in battery management, autonomous driving, and software updates.
  3. Brand loyalty and cult following: Tesla has built a strong brand identity, with a loyal customer base and a reputation for innovation and sustainability.

Investor Sentiment and Expectations

  1. Growth expectations: Investors have high expectations for Tesla’s future growth, driven by its expanding product lineup, increasing production capacity, and potential for further market disruption.
  2. Long-term vision: Tesla’s mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy has resonated with investors, who are willing to look beyond short-term profitability.
  3. Charismatic leadership: Elon Musk’s leadership and vision have been instrumental in shaping Tesla’s brand and driving investor enthusiasm.

Valuation Metrics and Comparisons

  1. Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: Tesla’s P/E ratio has often been significantly higher than that of traditional automakers, reflecting its growth prospects and investor expectations.
  2. Price-to-sales (P/S) ratio: Tesla’s P/S ratio has also been elevated, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium for its revenue growth.
  3. Comparison to other growth stocks: Tesla’s valuation has been compared to that of other growth stocks, such as Amazon or Shopify, which have also experienced significant premium valuations.

Challenges and Risks

  1. Competition from established automakers: Traditional automakers, including Toyota, have been investing heavily in EV technology, potentially eroding Tesla’s competitive advantage.
  2. Production and delivery challenges: Tesla has faced production and delivery issues in the past, which can impact its ability to meet growth expectations.
  3. Regulatory risks: Changes in government policies or regulations can affect Tesla’s business, particularly if they impact the demand for EVs or the company’s access to incentives.

Why Tesla’s Valuation Has Remained High

Despite the challenges and risks, Tesla’s valuation has remained high due to a combination of factors:

  1. Continued growth and innovation: Tesla has continued to innovate and expand its product lineup, maintaining its position as a leader in the EV market.
  2. Investor enthusiasm and momentum: The company’s strong brand and charismatic leadership have maintained investor enthusiasm, driving the stock price higher.
  3. Speculative buying and short squeezes: Tesla’s stock has been subject to speculative buying and short squeezes, which can contribute to its high valuation.

Comparison to Toyota

Toyota, on the other hand, is a more established automaker with a larger market capitalization and a more diversified product lineup. While Toyota has been investing in EV technology, its valuation has been more in line with traditional automakers. The key differences between Tesla and Toyota are:

  1. Growth prospects: Tesla is expected to continue growing at a faster rate than Toyota, driven by its focus on EVs and innovative technology.
  2. Brand identity and disruption: Tesla has created a new market and disrupted the traditional automotive industry, whereas Toyota is a more established player with a different business model.

In conclusion, Tesla’s high valuation relative to Toyota and other traditional automakers can be attributed to a combination of factors, including its growth prospects, innovative technology, brand loyalty, and investor enthusiasm. While there are challenges and risks associated with Tesla’s business, its continued innovation and growth have maintained its premium valuation.

I saw a few problems with that conclusion, so I asked again:

I’d like you to follow up on that analysis. You say Tesla has an expanding product lineup; it has just discontinued its two largest models (Model S and Model X). The cybertruck has failed to become a mass market vehicle. And global sales are declining while Tesla has been overtaken by BYD as the world’s largest EV maker. Its innovation process has slowed, and it is arguably behind Waymo and others in autonomous driving. Its leader is a controversial figure, whose presence energizes one community but since 2024 at least has alienated another, arguably of those more likely to buy an EV. Are you sure that these are the factors that explain Tesla’s share price? Or to put it another way, would you invest Meta’s money in Tesla at the current P/E ratio?

What followed is, it seems to me, a perfect anecdata demonstration of why we might not want to surrender all of our critical faculties to a set of silicon overlords. Map what Llama says onto what I asked:

Revisiting Tesla’s Valuation

Upon further analysis, it appears that the factors I previously mentioned may not be as relevant as they once were. Tesla’s product lineup has indeed been contracting, with the discontinuation of its two largest models, the Model S and Model X. The Cybertruck, while innovative, has not achieved mass market success. Additionally, Tesla’s global sales have been declining, and the company has been overtaken by BYD as the world’s largest EV maker.

Challenges and Concerns

  1. Declining sales and market share: Tesla’s sales have been declining, and the company has lost its position as the world’s largest EV maker.
  2. Innovation slowdown: Tesla’s innovation process has slowed, particularly in the area of autonomous driving, where it is being surpassed by competitors like Waymo.
  3. Controversy surrounding Elon Musk: Elon Musk’s leadership and behavior have become increasingly polarizing, potentially alienating a significant portion of potential customers.

Reevaluating Tesla’s Valuation

In light of these challenges and concerns, it’s reasonable to question whether Tesla’s current valuation is justified. The company’s P/E ratio is still relatively high, indicating that investors are willing to pay a premium for its shares.

Investment Decision

If I were to advise Meta on investing in Tesla at the current P/E ratio, I would likely recommend caution. While Tesla is still a pioneering company in the EV space, its current challenges and concerns suggest that its growth prospects may be more limited than previously thought.

Alternative Investment Opportunities

There may be other investment opportunities in the EV or technology spaces that offer more attractive growth prospects and valuations. For example, companies like BYD, NIO, or Li Auto may offer more compelling investment opportunities due to their growth potential and competitive positioning.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while Tesla is still a significant player in the EV market, its current challenges and concerns suggest that its valuation may be due for a correction. As an investor, it’s essential to carefully evaluate the company’s prospects and consider alternative investment opportunities before making a decision. At the current P/E ratio, I would likely advise against investing in Tesla, and instead, explore other opportunities that offer more attractive growth prospects and valuations.

That’s a 180 degree swing from the prior answer, generated by nothing more than calling bullshit on the model’s first conclusion.

What does it all mean?

Hell if I know. I’m as far from an expert on all of this stuff as it’s possible to be. I’m just a guy with access to a very funny set of hammers out here looking for nails.

One thought though: there’s a lot of evidence out there, some of which I’ve encountered directly from colleagues and friends, in which various AI approaches have real and large impacts on various problems. Folks doing drug discovery or protein analysis or a lot of coding tasks and…well the list goes on. And in just my brief playtime with Claude et al., I got some distinct value from the LLMs’ ability to look at specific texts and break them down. So anyone saying AI is a fraud top to bottom is, I think, clearly wrong.

But those who think that a general machine intelligence is right around the corner…well, the Llama case above seems to me a pretty clear example of how a statistical inference machine operating on a bucket full of internet slop may not be all that, not yet and quite possibly not for an arbitrarily long time to come.

Image: J. M. W. Turner, Keelman hauling coals by moonlight, 1835

Respite: At Play in the Fields of the LLMsPost + Comments (109)

  • Page 1
  • Page 2
  • Page 3
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Page 288
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

On The Road - frosty - 3rd Annual National Park/COVID Challenge - Oregon - Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area - Engineering
Photo by frosty (4/3/26)
Donate

Election Resources

Voter Registration Info – Find a State
Check Voter Registration by Address
Election Calendar by State

Targeted Fundraising Info & Links

Recent Comments

  • Another Scott on Friday Night Open Thread (Apr 3, 2026 @ 10:22pm)
  • Jackie on Friday Night Open Thread (Apr 3, 2026 @ 10:22pm)
  • different-church-lady on Friday Night Open Thread (Apr 3, 2026 @ 10:21pm)
  • Scout211 on Friday Night Open Thread (Apr 3, 2026 @ 10:20pm)
  • JerseyBeard on Friday Night Open Thread (Apr 3, 2026 @ 10:19pm)

Balloon Juice Posts

View by Topic
View by Author
View by Month & Year
View by Past Author

Featuring

Medium Cool
Artists in Our Midst
Authors in Our Midst

🎈Keep Balloon Juice Ad Free

Become a Balloon Juice Patreon
Donate with Venmo, Zelle or PayPal

Calling All Jackals

Site Feedback
Nominate a Rotating Tag
Submit Photos to On the Road
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Links)
Balloon Juice Anniversary (All Posts)

Fix Nyms with Apostrophes

Outsmarting Apple iOS 26

Balloon Juice Mailing List Signup

Order Calendar A
Order Calendar B

Social Media

Balloon Juice
WaterGirl
TaMara
John Cole
DougJ (aka NYT Pitchbot)
Betty Cracker
Tom Levenson
David Anderson
Major Major Major Major
DougJ NYT Pitchbot
mistermix
Rose Judson (podcast)

Donate

Site Footer

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Comment Policy
  • Our Authors
  • Blogroll
  • Our Artists
  • Privacy Policy

Privacy Manager

Copyright © 2026 Dev Balloon Juice · All Rights Reserved · Powered by BizBudding Inc