Global numbers on coronavirus as it stands:
• Total confirmed cases globally: 28,273 cases, 565 deaths
• Mainland China: 28,018 cases, 563 deaths
• Outside mainland China: 260 cases in more than 25 places, 2 deathshttps://t.co/nuHTiW3ZpI— CNN (@CNN) February 6, 2020
The patients most affected by the new coronavirus seem to be middle-aged and older men. The least affected: children. https://t.co/OyGvhzgT09
— New York Times World (@nytimesworld) February 6, 2020
I talked to @seattlebryn @thedailybeast about #nCoV2019 #coronavirus. Ignore the screaming DEATH SENTENCE? subheading. This is a nicely balanced piece on what we might expect in the days ahead (also featuring @KindrachukJason @BogochIsaac @mtosterholm) https://t.co/hTh9pZm00C
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) February 5, 2020
…“I think at this point, containment is already a lost cause,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
Osterholm’s comments echoed grim realism from health officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on a call with reporters early this week.
Although the disease’s severity appears to be lower than once feared, Osterholm said the 2019 novel coronavirus’s transmission patterns so far are reminiscent of influenza. “To the extent that we have to deal with this, if this in fact is being transmitted like influenza, then there really isn’t much chance to contain it,” he said. “We can surely minimize transmission in health care facilities and some public spaces. But beyond that, this virus is going to kind of do what it damn pleases.”
Several other experts, while offering somewhat more optimistic outlooks, agreed that the world was entering a critical phase that will determine—over the next few weeks —whether the epidemic that has spread from China to at least two dozen other countries goes nuclear.
One key variable driving the epidemic’s potential severity is whether epidemiologists see ongoing, sustained transmission of the virus to people with no travel history to China or clear connections to others who have been there. So far, most of the human-to-human spread beyond China has been limited to close contacts of infected patients, which some researchers have pointed to as a hopeful sign.
“If this remains limited in nature, the epidemic can be contained,” said Jason Kindrachuk, an expert on emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, in an email to The Daily Beast. “If we start seeing sustained human-to-human transmission outside of China, there will likely be some pretty quick revisiting of current screening procedures,” he added…
Tempering reports that the outbreak may be considerably larger than initially thought, emerging data also suggest that it may be less deadly than other recent outbreaks. A Feb. 3 report from the South China Morning Post, for example, suggested that the more than 5,000 reported cases in Wuhan by that point were “just the tip of the iceberg” due to a shortage of testing kits in the outbreak’s epicenter (several modeling studies have likewise pointed to much higher numbers). The report, however, also suggests that the true proportion of fatal cases—officially hovering around 3 percent for the city and surrounding Hubei province—might be significantly lower since milder cases would be more likely to go undiagnosed…
.@WHO is looking for $675M to help countries prepare in the event China can't contain #2019nCoV. @DrTedros remarked that while it might seem like a lot of money, the alternative would be more expensive. "Invest today or pay more later." https://t.co/tAZdXycXZ9
— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 5, 2020
Novel Coronavirus Update – Wednesday / ThursdayPost + Comments (9)