Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

President Musk and Trump are both poorly raised, coddled 8 year old boys.

Republicans in disarray!

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about its history.”

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

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Democratic Politics

Disappointed in Last Night’s DNC Chair Forum put on by CHORUS

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I put up an announcement post about this yesterday.

Be the Change – Start Tonight at 8 pm Eastern

Did anyone beside me watch this?  If so, I would love to hear from you.

I was not (favorably) impressed, but I would welcome disagreement with that in the comments.

My take?   Chorus fell on its collective face, right out of the gate, with their first ever creator-led DNC Chair Forum.  If this is their opening move, and they were pleased with the result, then I’m definitely not buying what they’re selling.

Juvenile.  Unprofessional.  It was edifying alright, just not in the way that I imagined it would be.

This felt like a forum for the so-called moderators to share THEIR OWN VIEWS, with each one putting their respective giant thumbs on the scale for their preferred candidates, complete with the occasional GOTCHA question designed to drag down one candidate in the effort to pimp for another.

There was nothing even resembling equal time for candidates.

Now let’s talk about the running chat they had in the sidebar.  oh. my. god.

What I expected: at least somewhat intelligent conversation about the candidates and their responses.  Anyone who’s watching a DNC Chair forum has to be politically savvy, right?  No.

What I got:  a chat that was downright embarrassing.  Grade school mentality.  The only things missing were the pom poms for the cheerleaders.  Mostly rah-rah for their candidate.  Very little discussion of actual ideas shared by the candidates. The Williamson people were the absolute worst.  “She’s so great, such an effective communicator.”   As for the rest, there was “X was my state rep and he was really helpful when I had X problem.”  WTF does that have to do with a leadership position for the DNC? There were also fanboys for the various “moderators”.

At the top of the show – and I use that word deliberately – was an announcement of the number of social media followers for each of the moderators.  And the “moderators” all had their particular axe to grind.  They shared their own opinions, asked leading questions.  I’m sorry, but moderators don’t say “I completely agree with you on that!” and then share more of their own opinions.

Shorter WaterGirl:   Ugh.  ugh.  ugh.   Self-promotion.  If we’re looking for leaders in alternative media, this wasn’t that.

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Barreling Toward Jan 20

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On The Road - Albatrossity - New Year in NC 4
Photo by Albatrossity

This guy is my spirit animal as we barrel toward Jan 20.

I am watching.  I am wary.  And I have talons, which I intend to use in constructive ways.

I do not plan to spend the next 4 years rocking in the corner.

I do not plan to put my fingers in my ears saying “la la la I can’t hear you”.

Nor do I intend to shiv my fellow travelers along the way, and that includes the other imperfect members of the Democratic Party.

Anyone else who wants to be constructive, even if you haven’t figured out what you can do, are you up for laying down a marker to describe where you’re at right now?

If let them burn it all down, there’s nothing we can do is where you’re at, maybe don’t chime in on this one?  You can likely do that in the previous thread, or the next one.

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I’m Saving the Rocks In My Pocket for Republicans

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Does anyone remember who said that, and when and why?

I keep wondering why we have apparently forgotten that really important lesson.  And modeling – that’s a quote from someone who had plenty of reason to be unhappy with the current situation they were in – yet still able to keep an eye on the big picture.

 

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We’re Going on Offense

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We’re going on offense.  If we’re smart enough to choose Ben Wikler as Chair of the DNC.

If we’re going to take on Trump, Republican extremists, and move our country forward, the Democratic Party needs to be stronger. I’m running for Chair of the Democratic National Committee to unite the party, fight everywhere, and win. Join me. 🧵

[image or embed]

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 8:14 AM

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Let’s show up where Dems have been missing.

Fox News. Local conservative radio. And new platforms and podcasts—from Joe Rogan to shows you’ve never heard of. And let’s build progressive media at the same time.

If I’m DNC Chair, we’re going on offense.

[image or embed]

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler.bsky.social) January 3, 2025 at 3:08 PM

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I am getting so tired of all the sharp elbows on Balloon Juice.  Our coping skills are being tested, for sure.  If I were going to write a story about what Balloon Juice has been like these past few months, I would call it Grieving, with Sharp Elbows.  I may write that story yet!

But for today, I am heartened by seeing this from Ben Wikler.  So far, he’s the only BlueSky tab I keep open.

We’re going on offense.  I like the sound of that.

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Unite. Fight. Win.

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Unite.  Fight.  Win.

If we’re going to take on Trump, Republican extremists, and move our country forward, the Democratic Party needs to be stronger. I’m running for Chair of the Democratic National Committee to unite the party, fight everywhere, and win. Join me. 🧵

[image or embed]

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler.bsky.social) December 1, 2024 at 8:14 AM

Unite.  Fight.  Win.  That’s Ben Wikler’s pitch for moving forward.

I’d say we’re doing great!  So awesome, in fact, that some days we skip right over “Unite” and go straight for “Fight”.  But I think we’re supposed to be fighting the other guys.

“You can’t wring your hands when you’re rolling up your sleeves.”

This is a 2-minute video, please take 2 minutes to watch it.

The only other candidate that I could possibly get excited about is Beto.

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Democratic Party – ‘Strong Bones, But We Need More Muscle on Those Bones’

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The idea of Ben Wikler as head of the DNC gives me hope.

Take 20 minutes and watch what Ben has to say.  I came away inspired.  He’s not trashing the party, and he’s got the vision we need.

I also tried to watch the Young Democrats candidate forum – I was able to force myself to watch the first half.  I felt like I should listen to what all the top candidates had to say, but damn, I heard so much pandering to the Young Democrats of America and too much same old, same old and blah blah blah from the other candidates and just couldn’t bear to watch the whole thing.

In my not-so-humble opinion, Ben Wikler is one of the leaders we need right now.  Let’s hope that the 448 people who get to vote will have the sense to understand that this is not the time for business as usual.

We have a leader we need right in front of us – DNC, wake the fuck up and break the mold.

Watch the top video and share your thoughts!

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Mechanics and what we think we might think about last Tuesday

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I want to lay out some things that I think I know or at least I think that I think.

  1.  Lots of people are going to be hurt.  The leopards are going to be feasting on faces of people who voted for the leopard eating faces party.  Lots of people who voted against the leopards are going to be hurt too.
  2.   It looks like the national shift was a near uniform 4 to 5 6 points to the right from 2020.
    1. Internationally, being an incumbent party in 2024 is a truly bad spot to be with historic wipeouts not uncommon
  3. The big exception to 4 or 5 point 6 shift to the right were in the swing states where there was a very active and engaged campaign.
  4. The swing states moved right by 1 2 to 3 points.
  5. The Harris campaign in these states likely had a substantial pro-DEM campaign effect of several points
    1. I’m betting that we can disaggregate mobilization effects to advertising/media effects by looking at vote swings in counties/precincts in non-swing states that get swing state messaging (ie the South Carolina suburbs of Charlotte  got bombarded by TV ads  but did not get the full GOTV mobilization effort while a decent chunk of SC got nearly no advertising nor GOTV mobilization from the national party… was there differential swing in the SC Charlotte suburbs relative to Charlestown or Columbia SC or was the NC result entirely a ground game result)
  6.  Everyone in the Democratic Party has a very strong incentive to make immediate and large claims about what the problem was and how to fix it as a way to claim within faction positions and priorities.
    1. We are unlikely to have good enough voter file data for these arguments for a few months
    2. UPDATE:  Hell, several states have yet to receive or count a substantial percentage of their ballots yet.  We won’t have rough near final counts for another week or more.
    3. Given near uniform swings in big states and small states, red states and blue states, causal explanations that are hyper campaign/tactical focused are pushing one hell of a boulder up the evidentiary hill.
  7. The GOP did not have substantial Presidential coat-tails
    1. The Senate GOP pick-ups were 2 ruby red (MT and WV), 1 pretty red (Ohio) and perhaps 1 swing state (PA) pick-ups
    2. The GOP January House Caucus is +/-2 members from their Caucus size today
    3.  I don’t think there was a governorship flip in either direction

Check in on your people today.

Build community, solidarity and kindness as we’re going to need it for the next fifty months.

But let’s figure out what happened instead of what we believe to have happened as engaging with reality as it is instead of as it is wished to be makes recovery more likely.

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