Just a few thoughts for the 2026 Democratic primary cycles for the House and Senate. First Dan Nexon makes a very good set of points:
The primary challenges are coming. Some of them will succeed. It’s imperative that a) voters vet the challengers, lest we wind up losing seats because we nominate someone unelectable b) competent people run as challengers.
— Dan Nexon (@dhnexon.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 7:25 PM
If we think that 2026 will be a Democratic friendly wave year and if we also think that the base of the Democratic Party is pissed at party leadership for not leading, then we should be seeing a lot of primary challengers. The ideal targets are safe(ish) seat incumbents who think that somehow we can go back to the past. That’s done and gone. But the challengers need to be competent and not grifters as there are going to be a ton of grifters out there. If we think that 2026 could look like 2010 but in reverse, we also need to make sure that primary challengers are not inverse Sharron Angles and Christine O’Donnells that lost very winnable seats because they were goddamn weird.
We also need to figure out state ballot rules early. One of the first big netroots scalps was supporting Ned Lamont in the 2006 Connecticut Democratic Senate primary against Lieberman. Winning that night made a lot of sacrifices worth it. And then we had to deal with Lieberman running as a pseudo-Republican in the general. Let’s understand the ballot access rules.
PublicHealthGuy on BSky makes a good point too:
dems lost another seat in the house today after a very old rep who was in poor health died in office. second time this year. with razor thin vote margins, this is a problem
All else being equal between two primary challengers, we should seriously put a thumb on the scale to support a challenger against an incumbent who qualifies for Social Security versus an incumbent who is just starting to get letters to join AARP.
A lot more things to think about but these should be some basic questions and concepts to ponder….
Oh yeah — I’m seeing the space for someone like a Howard Dean to look at the Democratic party leadership and see a wide open lane as a huge portion of the party’s core voters are going WTF and no one in power addressing that WTFness.