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mad magazine classic: spy vs. spy

Silverman on Security

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War for Ukraine Day 392: Zelenskyy Goes to Bakhmut!

by Adam L Silverman|  March 22, 20238:31 pm| 80 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Someone in comments last night asked who made the image I used at the top of the post. I honestly do not know. Someone sent it to me over a year ago, I saved it, and then used it for a number of posts. Given the theme of last night’s post I thought it was appropriate. If anyone knows who originally made the image, please let me know and I’ll make sure to acknowledge it.

Earlier today President Zelenskyy went to Bakhmut:

President Zelensky arrived in the east of Ukraine today to award the heroes defending their homeland.

Online sources say the President came to Konstantinivka, not far from Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/1OmjxYBh91

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 22, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

We will do everything to ensure that the blue and yellow colors continue their liberation movement – address by the President of Ukraine

22 March 2023 – 19:51

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today I have been working in the regions all day. Donbas – the frontline, our warriors, the region. The Kharkiv region after that – the situation in Kharkiv, on the border, in all districts of the region, restoration, protection of critical infrastructure.

I started from the front, from the Bakhmut area. It is an honor for me to support our warriors who are defending the country in the toughest frontline conditions. I presented state awards, thanked our soldiers for their bravery, for their resilience, for Ukraine – which we are preserving thanks to such heroes, thanks to each and every one of them who is fighting against Russian evil.

I paid a visit to the wounded warriors. I wished them – and I’m sure on behalf of all of you, all of our people – a speedy recovery.

I thanked the doctors and nurses. And now I want to thank everyone who supports our soldiers recovering from injuries. Who helps with everything necessary, our doctors, everyone who works for rehabilitation after injuries. I am grateful to every volunteer, every partner of ours who helps!

It is distressing to look at the cities of Donbas, to which Russia has brought terrible suffering and ruin. The almost constant, hourly air-alert siren in Kramatorsk, the constant threat of shelling, the constant threat to life… Right there, in Donbas, in the Kharkiv region – wherever Russian evil has come, it is obvious that the terrorist state cannot be stopped by anything other than one thing – our victory. And we will ensure it – the Ukrainian victory.

In all areas of the east of our country, where there is a Ukrainian flag, there is also hope. It is felt. We will do everything so that the blue and yellow colors continue their liberation movement – returning normal life to our entire land, from Donetsk to the border.

We will certainly respond to the occupier for every attack on our cities… Today’s Russian strikes at Zaporizhzhia, the night attack on the Kyiv region… All Russian strikes will receive a military, political, and legal response.

Russia will lose this war. There is no subject in the world who does not feel this already. Everyone understands all this. And every Russian murderer should understand that an arrest warrant is the best thing that can happen to them.

My condolences to all our people who lost their relatives and loved ones due to Russian terror!

In the second half of the day, I, my team, the Head of the Office – we all worked in the Kharkiv region. Just as in the Donetsk region, I held a meeting on the situation in the region, on social and security needs.

It is very important that Kharkiv stands strong. Well done! Thank you, people of Kharkiv! You hold on with confidence. The city lives, the city fights, Kharkiv gives strength to our entire east. I thank everyone who stayed in Kharkiv, who works, who gives work to others, who maintains security, protects the border! Thank you to everyone – in positions, at posts, at critical infrastructure facilities, utility workers, local authorities, businesses, educators…

The representatives of the region informed me about some issues that must be resolved by the government for stable social security of all those who work for our people in the Kharkiv region. These issues were discussed. We also discussed issues of reconstruction, humanitarian demining, and restoration of energy networks. Everything that is within the competence of the government will be done for sure.

And, of course, I was very pleased to hand over a special award to Kharkiv… Award of the hero city, a ribbon on the city’s flag denoting the special bravery of the people of Kharkiv.

And one more thing.

This evening begins the holy month of Ramadan for Muslims. A significant part of our Ukrainian Muslim community, the Crimean Tatar people, is forced to meet Ramadan under occupation, under the threat of Russian repression and abuse in Crimea, under shelling in other parts of Ukraine, and in frontline battles.

I have no doubt that we will return freedom, respect, and security to our entire state and to all communities. And may the power of prayer in this holy month help us cleanse Ukraine of Russian godless evil, of those who truly believe in nothing, and that is why they are capable of such terror. Let the next Ramadan begin in peace and on the entire Ukrainian land free from Russia. Ramadan Mubarak!

Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine and the people!

Gratitude to everyone who helps every day!

Glory to Ukraine!

The success of 🇺🇦 forces on the land, in the sky and at sea really brings peace closer. Full compliance with the sanctions regime against Russia really restores the force of the UN Charter. Global unity can restore global stability. 2/2

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 22, 2023

Here’s the most recent operational update from the Ukrainian MOD machine translated from the post on their Telegram channel:

Ministry of Defence Ukraine✔
‼️Operational information as of 18.00 on 22.03.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

⚔️ The fiercest battles continue in the southern and northern parts of Bakhmut, and the enemy also carried out offensive actions in the Avdiivka direction with the aim of establishing control over Avdiivka and Maryinka.

▪️During the day, the enemy launched a rocket attack on Zaporizhzhia, as a result of which 2 Russian rockets hit a residential multi-storey building, there were deaths and injuries among civilians. The enemy also carried out 41 air strikes. In particular, the occupiers used 21 UAVs of the Shahed-136 type from the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation, 16 of these drones were shot down. As a result of the enemy UAV strikes, the Russians hit the territory of the dormitory of the technical college in Rzhyshchev, Kyiv region, there were deaths and injuries among civilians, as well as damage to the object of civilian critical infrastructure in Zhytomyr region. In addition, the invaders launched more than 30 attacks from rocket salvo systems.

▪️On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy continues to try to break our defenses. He led unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Makiivka and Bilogorivka settlements. Conducted artillery shelling of Dvorichna, Kupyansk and Krokhmalne settlements of Kharkiv region; Belogorivka – Luhansk, as well as Kolodyazi and Verkhnokamianske in Donetsk region.

▪️In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues to conduct offensive actions, but its offensive potential is decreasing. The enemy does not stop trying to capture the city, losing a significant amount of manpower, weapons and military equipment. Our defenders repel numerous enemy attacks around the clock in the areas of Bakhmut, Bohdanivka and Predtechine settlements. Settlements near the contact line, including Vasyukivka, Mynkivka, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Bila Gora, Druzhba, Mayorsk, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk region, were hit by enemy shelling.

▪️On the Avdiivsk, Marinsk, and Shakhtarsk directions, the enemy carried out offensive actions in the areas of Novokalynov, Stepove, Berdychi, Avdiivka, Lastochkine, Severna, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Marinka, and Pobieda settlements – without success . In particular, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Karlivka, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Vugledar and Velika Novosilka of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.

▪️In the settlement of Vesele in the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhya region, on the territory of the building of the kindergarten, the Russian occupying forces set up a military hospital .

▪️The Russian criminal authorities continue measures for forced passporting of the population of the temporarily occupied and occupied territories of Ukraine. Thus, in the settlements of the Kherson region, the Russian occupying so-called “authorities” have been threatening local residents since April to stop paying pensions in the absence of a Russian passport.

▪️At the same time, in the Starobil Vocational College of the Luhansk National Agrarian University, a meeting of teachers was held, who expressed dissatisfaction with the forced passporting of the teaching staff, due to the instruction of the occupying so-called “leadership” of the educational institution, that all employees of the college should receive a passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation by June 1. Teachers are not given the opportunity to resign at their own will. The occupiers took measures to forcibly disperse and stop the meetings.

✈️During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces struck the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile complex, as well as 12 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers.

🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces

🚀 Ministry of Defence Ukraine👆

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Avdiivka, Kreminna, and Bakhmut:

ANDIIVKA AXIS /2050 UTC 22 MAR/ UKR forces broke up a series of RU attacks north of Avdiivka. Assaults on the urban area of Avdiivka were repelled, as was a major Russian effort to the west of the city. UKR defenders drove back RU units at Lastochkyne, Sieverne and Pervomaiske. pic.twitter.com/sw5EywTk8Q

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 22, 2023

KREMINNA AXIS /2345 UTC 22 MAR/ UKR forces in contact in urban areas of Kreminna and Dibrova. RU assault on Makiivka broken up by UKR defenders. pic.twitter.com/Q6nlknXco3

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 22, 2023

BAKHMUT CITY /1945 UTC 22 MAR/ President Zelensky visits frontline positions in Bakhmut. Wagner attacks on Bohdanivka and Hyrhorivka repelled. UKR breaks up Russian VDV assaults on Ivanivske. pic.twitter.com/cRXhuBZERw

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 22, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1545 UTC 22 MAR/ RU continues ‘round the clock’ assaults on Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Hyrhorivka, Bohdanivka and urban Bakhmut. UKR forces broke up a Russian VDV assault on Klischiivka. RU units are losing high numbers of men and equipment pic.twitter.com/6ejMOGx2lh

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 22, 2023

Bakhmut:

Update from Kyianyn on 22 March pic.twitter.com/y4iRPqLpp8

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 22, 2023

Near #Bachmut on March 22, 2023. #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/yRnPYY4FSF

— Aris Messinis (@ArisMessinis) March 22, 2023

Bakhmut holds.
We are standing our ground.
We are protecting our land.
We will win.
Glory to Ukraine!

🎥 @operativno_ZSU pic.twitter.com/7MIkXxrcaI

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 22, 2023

 

Konstyantynivka:

I hope Zelensky got an OKKO dog with that coffee in Kostyantynivka. https://t.co/e4IvzMxbCF

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 22, 2023

The original tweet machine translates as:

Donetsk region.
Konstantinovka.
Our president and our unbreakable team of one of the two operating gas stations in the city.

P.S. We filled up with the right kind of fuel – Pulls of revenge.

Zaporizhzhia:

#RussiaIsATerroristState pic.twitter.com/YYnARMcOdA

— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) March 22, 2023

#Zaporizhzhia
What kind of military objective did Russians have here? Killing more civilians in a brave and beautiful city that has symbolic meaning for all Ukrainians with its cossack history doesn't count as a military objective, you know. pic.twitter.com/8L2mFcOk37

— Victoria Amelina 🇺🇦 (@vamelina) March 22, 2023

18 civilians, including 2 children, were injured as a result of this Russian missile strike on a high-rise apartment building in Zaporizhzhia; 1 of them died in the hospital, according to preliminary information from local authorities. https://t.co/U9mbeJE4CH

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 22, 2023

Borodyanka:

The world must not forget the true cost of Ukrainian grain. Fragments of projectiles and casings collected after plowing just one field near Borodyanka in Kyiv region.

📷 @unian pic.twitter.com/2VLdvdGMAj

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 22, 2023

Kyiv:

Last night, the terrorist state attacked Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed drones.
16 were shot down by Ukraine's air defenders.
As a result of the russian attack, three civilians were killed and seven were injured in Kyiv region.

📷 @SESU_UA pic.twitter.com/LfohkPtCfl

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 22, 2023

Occupied Sevastopol, Crimea:

Early this morning temporarily occupied Crimea was attacked again. This time with naval drones. It is reported that the bay in Sevastopol was attacked by 3 surface drones.

Seems like drones might become a game changer in the upcoming counteroffensive. pic.twitter.com/orikim4YYP

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 22, 2023

If this footage of naval drone attack on Sevastopol is authentic, it’s pretty remarkable. pic.twitter.com/vOZmySY6qm

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 22, 2023

Vladivostok:

A huge queue is shown by a local resident in a new cemetery in Vladivostok, Russian Far East. According to them, there was not a single grave in this location just in December. Mobilisation in effect. pic.twitter.com/W6JAKDL3c2

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 22, 2023

Primorsky Krai:

Holy cow, I’ve lived to see Russians de-mothball my favorite early Cold War legacy T-54/55s.
Again: T-54s.
Remember — the special military operation is running in full compliance with the plan as scheduled. https://t.co/KLL8V8DDh3

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 22, 2023

The original tweet machine translates as:

News that will please fans of gluing tanks: in the possession of our team there are photos of a train carrying T-54 tanks of the mid-20th century from the Primorsky Krai to the West. We see this as a sign of a shortage of armored vehicles in the Russian Armed Forces

Dmitri and his merry band of translators at WarTranslated have translated the 24TV Ukraine interview with Mykhailo Podylak:

24tv.ua interview: The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces should be a surprise for the enemy – Mykhailo Podolyak
Posted on 22 March 2023

A translation of an interview with the Adviser to the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak by Kanal 24 (Ukraine), from 17.03.2023.

Original article: https://24tv.ua/intervyu-mihaylom-podolyakom-pro-pidgotovku-kontrnastupu-syurpriz_n2275897

By Alina Vyshnevska (for Kanal24, @24tvua)

Translation by @Anastasiya1451A

Original video interview in Ukrainian:

The development of Ukraine after the liberation of the territories

Interviewer: The occupiers completely wiped off the face of the earth the city of Popasna in the Luhansk region (pre-war population of 20,000) – this is something that they admitted to. However, just a couple of days ago the Russian mercenary group “Wagner” boasted that they had taken a village inhabited by 2 people until 2022. They told about the heavy battles with which the village was taken.

Podolyak: It is the village of Zaliznyanskoe. There are literally 3 buildings in that village. And I just want to note one thing: there is no such thing as so-called “L/DPR” – there are territories that are temporarily occupied by Russia. There is no Luhansk or Zaporizhzhia region that joined Russia. There is only a common act of aggression – a war initiated by Russia against Ukraine, and it has corresponding goals:

-to destroy the maximum number of citizens of Ukraine – civilians, military – it does not matter.

-to destroy the maximum number of Ukrainian towns and villages in the occupied territories.

-to loot, if not destroy, everything that is in the occupied territories.

-to try to stay there for a certain time, as they in Crimea, unfortunately for you and me, stayed for 8 years.

 

Crimea was stolen and robbed. Today, [Russians] are taking everything out of there, because they understand that it won’t be like in 2014. When Russians went in and appointed some criminals, such as Aksyonov, as the heads of unrecognized administrative units, it will be for a certain time. They understand that this won’t last in 2023. Therefore, they gradually begin to take everything from Crimea – to evacuate their families [to Russia], to take away the material values ​​that they have accumulated during this time.

But in between, there is no difference in what kind of documents they write, what kind of administrative arrangements, etc. It will not be discussed at all. Russia must necessarily lose, because only after that we will be able to hold negotiations with Russia within the framework of international institutions. It is also key for us to record everything that they have to compensate Ukraine.

 

The rebuilding and development of Ukraine after the liberation of its territories is a huge cost that we will need to cover somehow. I understand that when a country wins a big war, investors come here because it will be a huge brand of freedom. And there will be a lot of people who would want to invest in Ukraine.

This is very important, because it will not be so much about profits, although those who want to make big profits will come as well. After all, there will be a boom here. And this will be an investment in symbolism. But in order to correct historical injustice, we need to take a huge amount of money from Russia [as reparations].

This is why it is important to record these facts about Popasna, other settlements that were completely or partially destroyed. Just look at Mariupol!

In Russia, there is this individual, Faizullin, he heads the Russian Ministry of Construction, who says that they built something there in Mariupol. 2 houses were built for the exhibition, and the surrounding buildings and infrastructure were completely destroyed. There just is no Mariupol as such. There is no Bakhmut either – from the point of view of what kind of cities they were before the Russian invasion.

If you look at Donetsk, where fat men like Pushylin are running around, there is no Donetsk. This is a strange, criminal, uncomfortable, completely destroyed city. Such cities cannot exist in the modern world. There is nothing to do there.

In 8 years, they did not make it into a “model, magazine cover” city, they made Donetsk look like any other city in Russia. I do not mean Moscow and St. Petersburg, but any other city – destroyed, uncomfortable, neglected – one that cannot exist in the modern world.

 

Thousands of destroyed occupiers near Bakhmut

Interviewer: The senior military adviser to the delegates of Great Britain to the OSCE at the Security Cooperation Forum in Vienna says that Russia lost at least 30,000 killed in the Bakhmut. At the same time, we saw that they managed to occupy only 0.004% of the territory for the month of February. In fact, 30 thousand were killed for 25km2 [the size of two London Heathrow Airports].

Podolyak: Let’s record who exactly the Ukrainians killed near Bakhmut. These were the most prepared remnants of the Russian army – those who know how to fight. All others in Russia – these are mobilized – a completely different level of training.

For me, it is much more important that Russia today has a certain resource depletion. They have much less ammunition. They reduced the intensity of shelling. Yes, it is high, but it is not what it was six months ago.

Russia is hysterically looking for shells in other markets, including Iran, North Korea, and China. Do you understand now the intensity of this war?

And this creates an important sense of panic in the military and political leadership of Russia. They understand that they calculated this war expecting it to last a certain number of days, for which they did not care how many missiles, shells, etc. they would spend.

When they say that the war will drag on for years, I ask: where are the resources? It is not a question of dragging out the war when you take a machine gun and use firearms. After all, the intensity of the war is great, so where are the shells, missiles, etc.?

Therefore, they spent not only 30,000 soldiers on the Bakhmut offensive. In total, they spent 3 thousand tanks. Although Russia wrote before the war that 12,000 tanks were in storage in Russia. But let’s be objective. There are not 12 thousand, but much less. And there are even fewer of those capable of combat. Almost everything has already been destroyed.

Therefore, they search hysterically. In Belarus, they took away everything that was in stockpiles. But not all tanks are ready for use, because this is Belarus [and] Russia after all – they steal everything internally. Therefore, war is Mathematics.

Preparation for the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

Interviewer: Politico reported our losses of 100,000 [KIA, MIA & WIA]. Yet, then Politico immediately gives information that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will begin in May. The publication even presents 2 possible scenarios.

Podolyak: I find it a bit ironic when journalists say what counterattack scenarios Ukraine will use. Maybe, they should take a direct part in the work of the General Staff of Ukraine and plan operations then? If they understand so well what exactly where and when to do.

Firstly, newspapers should not discuss the timing of the counter-offensive. It should be a surprise for the enemy. It can only be said that the following months are required to accumulate a certain resource. After all, an offensive requires tools in a certain amount, which must be accumulated. We understand how long this will take logistically.

Secondly, even the military does not need to talk about the priority directions or scenarios of the attack. Ukraine is much more creative than Politico journalists think. We have already proven this many times during the war. In particular, in the Kharkiv region or with what is happening now in general along the frontline, especially in the Donetsk direction.

The main thing is that both the military leadership – in the Armed Forces and the Ministry of Defence, and the political leadership, first of all, I am talking about Volodymyr Zelenskyi – have a completely consolidated position that we cannot stop midway. We need counterattacks at a certain point. And this requires a concentration of resources.

We cannot simply retreat or advance without being prepared for different scenarios and taking into account all the risks. All this is discussed at the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, where collective decisions are made, and all scenarios are openly discussed. The only thing that isn’t there is Politico or any other journalists.

Let’s not get carried away by peer reviews or journalistic publications on these hyped topics. Let’s wait for the development of events. We have no other option but to go on the counterattack at a certain time according to a certain scenario. Otherwise, there will be no statehood of Ukraine.

Stopping somewhere in the middle, as it was in 2014 – when the territories remained under the occupation of Russia – will mean that after some time, Ukraine will not exist as a state. After all, Russia today at various levels, including Vladimir Putin, fixes its position: “Ukraine must be destroyed as a state and a territory where Ukrainians live.”

Much, much, much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

@patron__dsns

😁 #песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ оригинальный звук – dimka_pustovit

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 392: Zelenskyy Goes to Bakhmut!Post + Comments (80)

War for Ukraine Day 391: The Cost II

by Adam L Silverman|  March 21, 20238:53 pm| 45 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Gonna be a short(er) update tonight. I’m feeling much better – not so run down – but it’s another busy week.

I want to start tonight and, frankly, focus on this reporting from Ellen Barry and Antoine d’Agata of The New York Times on Ukrainian Soldiers and Post Traumatic Stress. I’m going to put a few excerpts above the jump, but I highly recommend you click across and read the whole thing.

The soldier cannot speak about what happened to him.

It’s been a month since “the tragedy,” as he calls it. When the subject arises, he freezes and looks at the floor. He gulps for air. He cannot say it.

His doctor, a motherly woman, speaks for him: There were four of them. They were stationed near the front line, in eastern Ukraine, and on that night they shot a Russian drone from the sky. A small victory. Then its wreckage hurtled down, hunks of ragged metal slicing into the men below. He was the only one left standing.

In the numb hours that followed, someone came to collect the others — one dead, two wounded — and he was left to hold the position alone through that freezing night and into the next day.

The soldier cannot speak about what happened to him.

It’s been a month since “the tragedy,” as he calls it. When the subject arises, he freezes and looks at the floor. He gulps for air. He cannot say it.

His doctor, a motherly woman, speaks for him: There were four of them. They were stationed near the front line, in eastern Ukraine, and on that night they shot a Russian drone from the sky. A small victory. Then its wreckage hurtled down, hunks of ragged metal slicing into the men below. He was the only one left standing.

In the numb hours that followed, someone came to collect the others — one dead, two wounded — and he was left to hold the position alone through that freezing night and into the next day.

Each war teaches us something new about trauma. In World War I, hospitals overflowed with soldiers who screamed or froze or wept, described in medical texts as “moral invalids.” By the end of World War II, a more sympathetic view had emerged, that even the hardiest soldier would suffer a psychological collapse after sufficient time in combat — somewhere, two experts from the surgeon general’s office concluded, between 200 and 240 days on average.

Russia’s war in Ukraine stands out among modern wars for its extreme violence. Its front lines are close together and barraged with heavy artillery, and rotations from the front line are infrequent. Ukraine’s forces are largely made up of men and women who, until a year ago, had no experience of combat.

“We are looking at a war that is basically a repetition of the First World War,” says Robert van Voren, who heads the Federation Global Initiative on Psychiatry, which provides mental-health support in Ukraine. “People just cannot fight anymore for psychological reasons. People are at the front line too long, and at a certain point, they crack. That’s the reality we have to deal with.”

I’ll put some of the quotes specifically from the patients and their care givers after the jump. But before we get there I think it is important to remember that war is corrosive. Even a just one in defense of one’s home, family, and fellow citizens against a brutal, genocidal re-invasion. We often celebrate the resilience and fortitude and determination and ingenuity of Ukrainians in general and the Ukrainian military in specific here in these updates. But all of that resilience, fortitude, determination, and ingenuity comes at an exceedingly high price. And that price is not just being paid now, it will be paid well into the future. We need to realize and not forget that the price being paid and the debt being accumulated to be paid later is higher than it would be because of the decisions of our, our allies, and our partners senior leaders in how to respond to the re-invasion. Our, our allies’, and our partners’ strategic choices are being paid for with Ukrainian blood and treasure.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s update from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

Today, Ukraine began to mark the first anniversary of the first victorious battles of the full-scale war that made the occupier flee – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

21 March 2023 – 22:29

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

I have just spoken with the President of Chile, it was a good conversation. We updated our countries’ vision of the current situation in international relations.

I briefed Mr. President on how Russia continues its aggression. I also informed him about how we can counteract Russian terror and do so successfully.

And the best proof of this is our experience. The experience Ukrainians have already gained in expelling the Russian occupiers. Thanks to the bravery of our warriors, thanks to the support of our partners who will never accept Russia’s desire to break the international legal order.

Today, Ukraine began to mark the first anniversary of the first victorious battles of the full-scale war – the battles in the north of our country that made the occupier flee.

It was on March 21 last year that the Battle of Moshchun, a small village in the Kyiv region, ended, and it was the first major step of our country towards victory in this war.

There were other such steps… The Battle of Hostomel. The Battle of Irpin. Fighting in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. The Battle of Zmiinyi. A fierce confrontation in the south of Ukraine and our unique defense operation that returned freedom to the Kharkiv region.

We will achieve the same result in other active actions. In the heroic battle for Donbas, which will inevitably be dominated by the Ukrainian flag. In the subsequent confrontation in the south, which will restore normal Ukrainian life in the Azov region. In the return of our Crimea, from where the migration of the most far-sighted rats of the terrorist state has already begun.

Our confidence in Ukraine’s victory, our vision of a free future for our country, Ukrainian heroism that has amazed the world – all of this was born there… In the heroic cities of the Ukrainian north, Ukrainian east, and Ukrainian south.

In the cities of heroes whose character did not submit to the occupier for a second, even when the occupier came to their homes.

Together, we are returning Ukraine to Ukraine. Together, we are protecting our future, our dignity, our freedom, and our history.

Today, I honored the heroes of the Battle for Moshchun – for Kyiv – in the very place where a memorial will be built in honor of our warriors and ordinary Moshchun residents whose lives were taken by this brutal war.

Today, the guest of our country, Prime Minister of Japan Kishida, began his visit to Ukraine with a visit to Bucha. To honor the memory of all those whose lives were taken by Russian terror. Mr. Kishida visited the Wall of Remembrance in Kyiv, near St. Michael’s Cathedral, and honored our warriors who died for Ukraine.

And it is very important when global leaders show courage by visiting Ukraine despite all the risks and show respect – respect for our people who are fighting not only for their country, for Ukrainian independence, but also for the preservation and functioning of civilized rules and civilized life in the world.

Our talks with Mr. Kishida were quite productive. It should be borne in mind that this visit is taking place at a time of Japan’s G7 Presidency – the Group of Seven democratic states. So, given Japan’s strength, its leadership in Asia in defending peace and the rules-based international order, and Japan’s responsibility as the G7 chair, our talks today can truly yield a global result.

We discussed security, political, sanctions, economic and humanitarian issues. Japan is ready to join our reconstruction, to be a leader in these economic and infrastructural processes.

But today I also heard Japan’s very concrete willingness to work together with us to mobilize the world even more actively for international order, for the protection against aggression, against Russian terror.

Thank you, Japan!

Thank you to everyone who helps us defend freedom and liberate our land!

Glory to each and every one who is now in combat! Glory to each and every one who is fighting for Ukraine near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar and all other hot spots of the frontline!

Today, I held a meeting of the Staff. The main topic is the frontline. Our warriors, our positions, our reinforcement. The commanders, the Commander-in-Chief and the intelligence delivered reports. One of the issues that always receives maximum attention is the supply of ammunition and support from our partners. We expect an increase in supplies of exactly what we need right now.

And one more thing. Today I would like to especially mention the 10th separate mountain assault brigade, the 54th and 92nd separate mechanized brigades, which are fighting in Donbas. Steadfastly, courageously and effectively. Well done, guys!

Glory to our heroes! 

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s is today’s operational update from the Ukrainian MOD machine translated from their Telegram channel:

Ministry of Defence Ukraine✔

‼️Operational information as of 18.00 on 21.03.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

▪️The enemy continues to conduct offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiiv, Marin, and Shakhtar directions.
⚔️The fiercest battles continue for Bakhmut and in the Avdiiv direction.

▪️During the day, the enemy launched 4 missile and 24 air strikes , and also carried out more than 30 attacks from rocket salvo systems.

▪️On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy continues to try to break our defenses. He led unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Masyutivka, Novoselivske, Bilogorivka, and Verkhnokamianske settlements . He carried out artillery shelling of the Krasne Pershe, Dvorichna, Kupyansk, Krokhmalne and Berestov settlements of the Kharkiv region; Nevske and Bilogorivka – Luhansk region, as well as Torske, Spirne and Fedorivka in Donetsk region.

▪️In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy continues offensive operations, but loses offensive potential . The enemy does not stop trying to capture the city, losing a significant amount of manpower, weapons and military equipment. Our defenders are repelling numerous attacks by the occupiers around the clock in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka and in the northern part of Bakhmut. In particular, Vasyukivka, Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Stupochki, Predtechine, Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanivka and Severny of the Donetsk region were subjected to enemy shelling.

▪️On the Avdiivsk, Marinsk, and Shakhtarsk directions, the enemy carried out offensive actions in the areas of Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske, Marinka, and Pobieda settlements – without success. Areas of Lastochkine, Berdychi, Avdiyivka, Tonenke, Georgiyivka, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Vugledar settlements of the Donetsk region came under enemy shelling.

▪️The Russian Federation does not give up the war of aggression, despite the numerous victims. Constantly takes measures to replenish manpower losses. Thus, in one of the military units stationed in the Krasnodar Territory, active work is being done with conscripts to sign contracts. Servicemen who agree to sign contracts are expected to go on a business trip to Ukraine in August 2023.

✈️During the day, the Aviation of the Defense Forces carried out 5 strikes on the areas of concentration of the invaders, and our
🇺🇦units of missile forces and artillery hit an ammunition warehouse, 2 anti-aircraft missile complexes, a radar station and one other important enemy object.

🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

🚀 Ministry of Defence Ukraine👆

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Avdiivka and Bakhmut:

ANDIIVKA AXIS /2245 UTC 21 MAR/ UKR forces report contact north of Avdiivka. Krasbohorivka & Novobakhmutivka; plotted contacts indicate that UKR forces have advanced in these locations. UKR reports Russian Air-Launched Cruise Missiles (ALCM) strikes in the Avdiivka area. pic.twitter.com/6poeJ016rI

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 21, 2023

AVDIIVKA AXIS /1500 UTC 21 MAR/ RU forces unsuccessfully tried to advance in the vicinities of Berdchi, Avdiivka, Severna, Pervomaiske & Novomykhailivka. RU continues widespread shelling in the Avdiivka Area of Operations (AO). pic.twitter.com/GJ1kEFyhRx

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 21, 2023

BAKHMUT CITY: UKR reports heavy fighting in northern urban area. The 1800 (Kyiv) briefing of the UKR Gen’l Staff noted heavy RU losses and ‘diminished combat potential’ of RU units. UKR Lines of Communication and Supply (LOCS) into Bakhmut remain secure. pic.twitter.com/Fo2yygYso7

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 21, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1430 UTC 21 MAR/ RU shelling accompanied failed attacks at Hyrhorivka, Bohdanivka & Ivanivske. A Russian VDV assault on Predtechyne was broken up by UKR forces and artillery. Wagner attacks along the North [M-03] axis thwarted. pic.twitter.com/HhG596Mn7T

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 21, 2023

Bakhmut:

From Ukrainska Pravda:

Yevgeny Prigozhin, financier of the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC), has told Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu about the plans of the Ukrainian army to launch a large-scale offensive near Bakhmut and asked for help.

Source: Prigozhin’s letter to Shoigu dated 20 March, posted on his Telegram channel

Quote: “According to the available information, the enemy plans to launch a large-scale offensive at the end of March or beginning of April and carry out flanking cutting attacks, with the aim of cutting off the units of the Wagner Group PMC from the main forces of the Russian Armed Forces.

I ask you to take all necessary measures to prevent the Wagner PMC from being cut off from the main forces of the Russian Armed Forces, which will have negative effects for the ‘special military operation’ [the official term used by Russians to describe the ongoing war with Ukraine – ed.].”

Details: Prigozhin also wrote that the secret appendix to the letter contained details of the “enemy’s plan” and “proposal for countermeasures”.

Putin’s chef [Prigozhin – ed.] also boasted that Wagner’s units allegedly control about 70% of Bakhmut and “continue the offensive for its complete liberation”.

Background: Hanna Maliar, Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defence, has said that the defence forces of Ukraine are destroying the most professional Russian units in the city of Bakhmut, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are making progress in certain areas, but Russians’ advance also took place.

Kyiv:

This is what #Kyiv, the capital of #Ukraine, looks like now. Due to #Russian missile strikes, there was a shortage of electricity for 4 months. There are no more power outages in the capital city and the region, and enough energy is available.

Video: Eugene Zhulai pic.twitter.com/5e3DoHKBOQ

— zaborona_media (@zaborona_media) March 21, 2023

And since the seat of the Ukrainian government is in Kyiv, I guess we’ll put this here too:

Twitter knows @FedorovMykhailo well. He is a rock star of the Ukrainian cabinet! Starlinks for UA military, the electronic govt services portal Diia, now adopted by other countries, the Army of Drones, United24 are just some of his projects. The re-appointment is technical 2/

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 21, 2023

@AKamyshin is another star who you know very well. Until recently he was the CEO of the renown Ukrainian Railroads. He made the trains run on time during the war, helped evacuate millions of people, deliver supplies to front line regions, and kept economy going. A hero! 4/

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 21, 2023

Oksen Lysovyy is our new minister of education and science. He is back from the frontlines where he served in the military. Oksen is a self made person, who was the leader of the Small Academy of Science of Ukraine, a very exciting & state of the art edu project for children 6/6

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 21, 2023

Odesa:

This evening Russia attacked Odesa with four Kh-59 missiles. Air defense forces managed to shoot down two missiles, two others hit the city. pic.twitter.com/j7qGLPiGMA

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 21, 2023

The Ukrainian Air Force was on air defense:

I’m going to finish off with a bit more from the NY Times reporting on Ukrainian Soldiers with post traumatic stress:

Yulia, 47

Occupation: Soldier; combat medic, independent forensic expert

“I’m a combat medic. I can’t stand the things I’ve seen. In Irpin, there was a basement where people gathered. They didn’t leave the basement for three or four days. But the children couldn’t stand the pressure. I’m a grandmother, so it’s very hard for me to see that kids can’t run around, walk, cry, talk. Like everyone else, I ask myself, “What are the people guilty of? Why do they have to live like this?” When you don’t find many answers, the questions accumulate. When you start seeing answers, and the answers don’t correspond to reality, you lose your marbles.”

Viktor, 53

Occupation: Soldier, former teacher

“The guys say that I talk in my sleep and I fight in the trenches. My fallen brothers, with whom I sit in the trench, ask, ‘Vitya, why don’t you shoot, you see them approaching?’ But I panic. It takes a while to realize that it was just a dream. It’s very, very painful. I want to curl up in a corner under a blanket. Some of my brothers in arms were my students. I worked at a school and they attended my trainings. We were together from the first day of the war, in the same trenches, on the same positions, and they died, but I didn’t.”

Nadiya Medvedska, 69

Occupation: Nurse

“These patients, they are from the front line. You have to be very careful with them. We worry about them — they are like our children. They are all very nervous, tense all the time. But you know, kindness conquers the world. Because when you are kind with them, they treat you the same way.”

Andriy, 27

Occupation: Soldier, former logistician for a supermarket company

“There are a lot of things in my head, you know? Like when you go fishing and you tangle the line. During the defense of Klishchiivka, a mine hit my trench, and I was shellshocked. My eyesight worsened, and I am very nervous about it — when will it get back to normal? I now overthink a lot. I take all problems to heart. I’m very happy when my family and fiancée come, but it’s like I’m not with them. They are here, asking questions, joking, but I stay withdrawn. I used to be such a cheerful guy before all this. Now I’m mostly sad; I’m better off alone.”

Ruslan, the junior lieutenant, was an art teacher before the Russian invasion. Now he cannot shake the feeling that something terrible is about to happen. In Bakhmut, he commanded a sapper unit and was assigned to plant mines in front of Ukrainian lines, steering a vehicle loaded with ammunition and men, back and forth, back and forth, under fire. He made it through, incredibly, but this is the paradox: Now the experience is with him all the time.

“All the horrors in Bakhmut are now starting to haunt me,” he says. “It was hell; I live in hell.”

There is much, much, much more at the link. Again, I highly recommend that you click across and read it.

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 391: The Cost IIPost + Comments (45)

War for Ukraine Day 390: The Owl Has Sharp Talons!

by Adam L Silverman|  March 20, 20238:33 pm| 75 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Crest of Ukraine’s GUR/Main Department of Intelligence of the MOD of Ukraine)

From the Ministry of Defense’s Telegram channel:

More on this after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

Today we have several important defense decisions what is necessary to support our warriors – address by the President of Ukraine

20 March 2023 – 21:36

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

We have several important decisions today, primarily defense decisions.

Our European partners have agreed on a joint plan to accelerate the supply of shells for our artillery.

This decision is worth 2 billion euros. It provides for both emergency supply and production of ammunition.

This is a strategic step. It gives us confidence in our unity, in the immutability of the movement towards victory over the terrorist state.

I am thankful to all our partners in Europe! To everyone who is truly interested in making Europe strong and free.

A new defense package from the United States was also announced today. The amount is 350 million dollars.

These are rockets for HIMARS, artillery shells and other ammunition – everything we really need to support our warriors.

I am grateful to President Biden, Congress, and all Americans!

I held three international conversations today.

With Austrian Chancellor Nehammer, we discussed our bilateral cooperation – humanitarian and political issues. We also discussed our joint opportunities to restore justice violated by Russian aggression.

I thanked Austria for joining the group that is preparing the establishment of a Special Tribunal on Russia’s aggression against our country.

I also thanked Ireland – Mr. Prime Minister – for his country’s accession to this group. The circle of partners willing to work together to punish Russia for its aggression is inevitably expanding, making the prospect of punishment more and more realistic.

It is not enough to bring to justice those responsible for crimes caused by aggression.

It is also necessary to punish – quite fairly and legally – the original crime that gave rise to all the other crimes of this war.

This is exactly what the Special Tribunal will provide. Every day we bring its creation closer.

By the way, today this issue, as well as our joint work with the International Criminal Court, was discussed in London during the conference of European ministers of justice.

I addressed the participants of the Conference and urged them to support all elements of international efforts to ensure that the aggressor is surely punished.

It is very important that we discussed with both the Austrian Chancellor and the Irish Prime Minister the possibilities of medical treatment and rehabilitation of our people who were wounded by Russian weapons.

With Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte, we focused on defense issues, on quite practical steps that will help implement our Peace Formula.

I informed him about the situation on the frontline, our main needs and capabilities.

I thank Mr. Prime Minister for his full understanding of the situation and for his unwavering belief that the power of European values is stronger than Russia’s hatred of European freedom.

Today, as always, I would like to commend our warriors. All those who are fighting for our country.

The 56th and 57th separate motorized infantry brigades – thank you guys! Thank you for your strength and resilience in the defense of Bakhmut!

The warriors of the 72nd Black Zaporizhian separate mechanized brigade, paratroopers of the 79th brigade, marines of the 35th and 36th separate brigades, the 74th separate reconnaissance battalion, our artillerymen of the 55th Zaporizhzhia Sich brigade – I am glad to be able to steadily thank you for the results, for your strength, for your resilience in Donetsk region!

Kherson direction… The 406th separate artillery brigade and the 131st separate reconnaissance battalion – well done, guys! Always accurate, always strong!

I am grateful to each and every one who is now in combat!

Glory to all who defend the independence of our country!

Thank you to everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

There is no operational update posted today at the Ukrainian MOD’s Telegram channel. However, there is this announcement from Deputy Defense Minister Malar:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Adiivka and Bakhmut:

ADVIIKA AXIS /1550 UTC 20 MAR/ After heavy fighting in the last 36 hours, RU decreased offensive tempo. UKR expects continued pressure on Adviika urban area. pic.twitter.com/3XFilP5d4T

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 20, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1840 UTC 20 MAR/ Urban combat continues in Bakhmut. RU piecemeal attacks repelled at Bohdanivka, Hyrhorivka and Ivanivske were repelled. pic.twitter.com/elISt1oaz8

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 20, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS/1430 UTC 20 MAR/ Gains by RU along the North [M-03] axis, with an uptick in urban fighting & contact near Ivanivske increases pressure on UKR forces. At present, UKR commanders must assess the security of Lines of Communication and Supply (LOCS) into the city. pic.twitter.com/B4t2GtYYS7

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 20, 2023

Bakhmut:

Bakhmut Demon's update on the situation in Bakhmuthttps://t.co/1DxwFn8uq6 pic.twitter.com/0twmcys70R

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 20, 2023

Vladislav Schevchuk from Bakhmut – the city is holding, don't believe fakes about withdrawal of the army from the city. pic.twitter.com/4P1XOZX2yp

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 20, 2023

Here’s a great thread on Bakhmut, touching on a few other locations such as Vuhledar, by USMC vet and FPRI Senior Fellow Rob Lee. First tweet in the thread below, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable.

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 20, 2023

Russia’s successful withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson and mobilization helped stabilize the lines and stopped Ukraine’s advance to Kreminna. In order to make further serious gains, Ukraine went on the defense to buy time to form new units/train on NATO equipment. 
The battle in Bakhmut began more than 6 months ago, but became a focus over the winter as both sides redeployed forces to Bakhmut from Kherson. Bakhmut thereby acquired a degree of political significance on both sides. 
Russia began its winter offensive in late January. Russian forces have attempted to advance in several parts of the front while making minimal gains. In some areas like Vuhledar, Russian forces have suffered far heavier losses than Ukrainian forces.

Unroll available on Thread Reader
Russia has also sustained heavy losses in Bakhmut, but the ratio of losses shifted as Russia took the flanks (which sit on high ground), beginning with the southern flank in January and the northern flank in mid/late-February including Yahidne on the 25th.

Although the center of Bakhmut has strong buildings and factories, the flanks are composed of houses without basements. Once they’re targeted, they’re no longer useful as fighting positions. Russian advances on the flanks put the main resupply routes within direct-fire range. 
Newly mobilized soldiers are being sent to Bakhmut as combat replacements and the units don’t have enough time to train them properly. There is a trade-off between sending mobilized soldiers to the front or to new units preparing for the spring offensive.

Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut: ‘Our troops are not being protected’But multiple defenders of this embattled city in Donetsk Oblast feel that they are in a similar boat, according to interviews with more than a dozen soldiers currently fighting in or around Bakhmut.https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected
Although there was a 3-week period in which Russian artillery fire was reduced, it increased at the end of February as the 106th Airborne Division played a greater role, which coincided with greater Wagner-VDV cooperation. Russia has a substantial artillery advantage in Bakhmut. 
Wagner commanders are given greater discretion and flexibility to fight as they see fit and to find/exploit weak points (TDF units are often deliberately targeted). Some Wagner units operate at night while others only during the day. Wagner convicts are not allowed to retreat. 
Bakhmut matters to Russia because its stated goal is to seize all of the Donbas, but Russian forces are struggling to advance towards Kramatorsk-Slovyansk from the other directions. It has also been key to Ukraine’s defense of the rest of the Donbas. 
Ukraine is prioritizing forming and training new units in three army corps for its spring offensive while trying to hold the entirety of the front line. But those are competing priorities, and Ukraine is deliberately holding back reserves. economist.com/zaluzhny-trans…Image

An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forcesEdited highlights of our conversationhttps://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript
This may give the impression that Ukraine is losing, but, in reality, Ukraine is not committing all of its resources to the front. Ukraine has a better chance of achieving another significant breakthrough this spring than Russia does during its current offensive. 
Russia is dependent on a small number of elite units for their assaults (e.g. naval infantry, VDV, Wagner professionals), but they can grind their way to slow, costly victories by employing greater forces and artillery. An attritional fight is not in Ukraine’s interests. 
Until its offensive, Ukraine’s best strategy is to pick battles where it can achieve a favorable ratio of attrition and expend fewer munitions, which could weaken Russian forces’ ability to defend without significantly sapping Ukraine’s offensive potential in the coming months. 
Although the attrition ratio in Bakhmut has been advantageous for the duration of the battle, the ratio is much less favorable now with Ru forces holding high ground on the city’s flanks. Much of Russia’s losses are prisoners of less military value than Ukrainian soldiers. 
In contrast, in Vuhledar, the share of Russian casualties from elite units is higher than in Bakhmut, and it isn’t clear if Wagner’s use of convicts would be as effective in a less urban setting. 
The upcoming Ukrainian offensive will be strategically critical and potentially decisive. Western aid, including ammunition, will likely peak this spring and summer, and it will take years before increases in artillery production capacity can be achieved. 
Ukraine will not have air superiority, will face stronger Russian defenses than it did in Kharkiv, and will likely only be able to achieve localized superiority in artillery fire and forces. To gives its offensive the best chance for success, Kyiv needs to husband its resources. 
There is no risk-free option for Ukraine. Retrograde operations are dangerous, withdrawing from Bakhmut could lead to more pressure on Siversk or elsewhere, and there is no guarantee Ukraine would be able to retake the city later if it withdraws. 
But there is a risk that, by committing the necessary forces to continue holding Bakhmut (where its attrition ratio isn’t favorable), Ukraine will sap some of the forces available for its strategically more important spring offensive. wsj.com/amp/articles/r…Image

Russia’s Wagner Troops Exhaust Ukrainian Forces in BakhmutWith a disregard for losses, the paramilitary group’s penal battalions have advanced at a time when the regular Russian military remains largely stalled.https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russias-wagner-troops-exhaust-ukrainian-forces-in-bakhmut-b58e726c
Another risk is that Russian forces will continue to press to the west to try to seize high ground north of Chasiv Yar, which is defensible terrain for holding Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Encirclement is also a risk.

Unroll available on Thread Reader

ImageImage

Encircling Bakhmut is Russia’s best opportunity to inflict a serious defeat on Ukraine. The VDV’s 106th Airborne Division has taken on a greater role, and the Russian MoD will likely prioritize cutting off the remaining MRSs by committing more resources.

The mud season has now begun, which could complicate a withdrawal or reinforcement, particularly if Russian forces advance closer to the O0506 hardball road. This could limit the use of wheeled vehicles. 
As in Mariupol and countless other battles, Ukrainian forces have defended bravely and inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces in Bakhmut, which will likely aid Ukraine’s spring offensive. But the conditions have worsened over the past month. 
What should Ukraine do? I don’t know. It isn’t a black and white issue and there is uncertainty. Russia may overextend itself trying to take the city and leave itself vulnerable to counterattack. It is ultimately a question of where Ukraine chooses to assume risk. 
Just as the strategic consequences of Russia’s offensive in the Donbas in the spring and summer wasn’t fully clear until after Ukraine’s offensives in the fall, it probably won’t be clear whether the continued defense of Bakhmut was the right move until after Ukraine’s offensive.

Vodyane, Optyne, and Krasnohorivka:

Combat FPV kamikaze drones of the 59th Motorized Brigade of the #UAarmy destroy russian equipment in the area of Vodyane, Opytne and Krasnohorivka villages in Donetsk region. pic.twitter.com/auVbxrdyZH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 20, 2023

Dzankhoy, Crimea:

Russian Kalibr cruise missiles, transported by rail, were destroyed in Dzhankoy, reported by Military Intelligence of Ukraine.

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 20, 2023

My understanding is that while Dzankhoy would be at the extreme edge of HIMARS range, given they type of ammunition we’ve provided, this strike was most likely done with UAVs. But we’ll have to wait for more information to be released. However, since I’ve mentioned HIMARS: obligatory:

I understand the sentiment, and frankly I agree with it, but whether this is actually doable is way outside my areas of expertise:

https://t.co/QK096UDupB

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 20, 2023

Estonia:

#Ukraine needs ammunition and has asked for it.

I proposed #EU member states jointly procure 1 million shells for Ukraine.

Glad that EU foreign and defence ministers approved the initiative today.

This helps to ramp up European defence industry and boost our security

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) March 20, 2023

If there is a will, there is a way – was not easy, but political consensus has been reached – 1 million rounds of 155mm to Ukraine. https://t.co/mernfmvSA5

— Hanno Pevkur (@HPevkur) March 20, 2023

The White House has announced the newest military aid package for Ukraine:

Memorandum on Delegation of Authority Under Section 506(a)(1) of the Foreign Assistance Act of1961

HOME                                            BRIEFING ROOM                                  PRESIDENTIAL ACTIONS

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE

SUBJECT:       Delegation of Authority Under Section 506(a)(1) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including section 621 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (FAA), I hereby delegate to the Secretary of State the authority under section 506(a)(1) of the FAA to direct the drawdown of up to $350 million in defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training, to provide assistance to Ukraine and to make the determinations required under such section to direct such a drawdown.

You are authorized and directed to publish this memorandum in the Federal Register.

                                                                                                                                     JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

Here’s what’s going to be sent:

Ukraine continues its fight for freedom. And our partners continue to be committed to supporting our brave soldiers and unbreakable people.
russian tyranny must fail, and its leaders must be punished. Working on it.
Thank you to @POTUS @SecDef and the American people. pic.twitter.com/fuYDZbx9Lt

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) March 20, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Patron has retweeted this:

Symbols of the war. @Maliar_Anna@PtashkaAzovstal@davidgilmour@RihardsKols@LinkeviciusL@PatronDsns#Putin_go_fuck_yourself #StopRussianAggression #Mariupol #Yulia #Payevska #Ukraine #Azovsteel #Azovstal #Putin https://t.co/9VC9kpYCT9

— ₩AW: War Against War (@WAW_AgainstWar) March 20, 2023

There’s no new Patron videos or tweets tonight, so here’s some Patron adjacent material for you (and so you won’t riot…):

In trenches #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #ukrainecounteroffensive #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/9ovQgLJbrR

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) March 20, 2023

☺️#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #ukrainecounteroffensive #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/HAp9N1CRpu

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) March 20, 2023

☺️#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #ukrainecounteroffensive #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/eXL40W9bGa

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) March 19, 2023

Time to sleep.#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #ukrainecounteroffensive #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/YscsvvfGSi

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) March 19, 2023

Love #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Leopard #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #RussiaisATerroistState #UkraineWarNews #UAarmy #ukrainecounteroffensive #Zelensky #UkraineRussiaWar️ pic.twitter.com/0FaCsF9Gqu

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) March 19, 2023

The boss.

Ukrainian soldiers have fun with their animals at field positions. pic.twitter.com/W0gf5ppzzE

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) March 18, 2023

“Cat, are you okay?
Can you go for a walk while we shoot?”.

The cat decided that he was comfortable living with Ukrainian artillerymen. pic.twitter.com/XiFPdup4Tx

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) March 18, 2023

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 390: The Owl Has Sharp Talons!Post + Comments (75)

War for Ukraine Day 389: Sunday! Sunday!! SUNDAY!!!!

by Adam L Silverman|  March 19, 20239:29 pm| 29 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image byNEIVANMADE)

At the beginning of last week several of you asked me what I thought about the reporting – I believe it was from WaPo – regarding issues with the Ukrainian military. I read it when it was published, but the week was just a slog, but I want to make sure I take a couple of minutes to answer your questions. I think there are three things going on. The first is that while Ukraine’s national command authority clearly has a theater strategy and a campaign plan with all the sequels and contingency plans, that plan is opaque. It is opaque to us observing the war. US officials have repeatedly said they are not given all the details. And most certainly, as is the case in every war, the Soldiers at the tactical end of things also are not provided all the details. While General Zaluzhny and Colonel General Syrskyi clearly know what they’re doing in regard to the theater strategy, why, and what has to happen for one sequel to the campaign plan to be implemented versus another, a battalion commander does not. The second thing I think is going on is that this is the first war fought with a fully mature social media ecosystem in place. And with Soldiers who have grown up on and using social media. So while it might not be surprising that a battalion commander or a company commander or just a random Soldier would take to social media to complain, where in past wars they might just do it to their buddies or by letter home or by phone call or, even, email, you just cannot have battalion commanders mouthing off to WaPo. Because, keeping the first thing I described in mind, that battalion commander most likely does not know everything that the senior leaders do. That doesn’t make him wrong, but it is something to keep in mind. Finally, the third thing is there is a divide among Ukraine’s forces that is related to the generational divide between senior leaders and average Soldier. The most senior members of Ukraine’s military began there service in the wake of the Soviet Union falling. The Soldiers leading the platoons, companies, battalions, and in some cases brigades did not. For a very long period of time Ukraine’s military, like the militaries of all the former Soviet states, was organized along the model of the Soviet military. Ukraine has made great strides moving away from this Soviet military legacy, but that transition is not complete. As a result, younger Ukrainian military leaders who have spent far more time training with the US and/or our NATO allies have a much different understanding of how a military should work than some of the most senior leaders. What we’re seeing is growing pains and, unfortunately, in the middle of a war. I’m not too worried that Ukraine won’t be able to work through this.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

Expelling the occupier, clearing our land of traces of the evil state, punishing terrorists are our tasks that we will fulfill – address by the President of Ukraine

19 March 2023 – 20:57

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Another week of our defense against the evil state is coming to an end. Another week when every day, every night, the Russian army shelled Ukrainian cities, villages, and killed our people.

Kamyanske in Zaporizhzhia region, Beryslav in Kherson region, Marhanets in Dnipropetrovsk region, Avdiivka, Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk region, Kostiantynivka in Sumy region… And dozens and dozens of other Ukrainian towns and villages that have been hit by Russian terrorists this week alone. My condolences to all those who have lost their relatives, their loved ones…

The evil state will be held accountable for every act of terror against Ukrainians. This week has finally brought a truly significant international legal result for Ukraine, for justice. There is a warrant of the International Criminal Court for the arrest of the Russian leader, and this is a turning point.

The moment after which it becomes undeniable that the end of this aggression for Russia will be the full range of its responsibility.

Responsibility for every strike on Ukraine, for every destroyed life, for every deported Ukrainian child… And, of course, for every manifestation of destabilization of the world caused by Russian aggression.

These days, our United24 charity platform has crossed the $300 million mark in donations. From people all over the world – more than a hundred countries, thousands and thousands of donors. Ordinary people, private companies that help buy drones for our military, buy ambulances, rebuild hospitals and infrastructure.

And this is one Ukrainian charity platform. One of the various initiatives that bring the world together.

The world understands what is happening. The world sees how bravely and nobly our people are fighting.

And that is why we manage to mobilize the support of both the leading powers and billions of human hearts around the world. I am grateful to each and every one who believes in Ukraine and who helps us restore security!

I would like to praise our people who are clearing Russian mines and unexploded ordnance left by the occupier. This is a daily painstaking and very dangerous job.

Since the beginning of the full-scale war, our pyrotechnics and explosives specialists have already inspected more than 100 thousand hectares of territory.

Over 400 thousand enemy shells have been neutralized. More than 200 thousand explosive items have already been removed.

I am thankful to everyone involved in this!

And I would like to commend the pyrotechnics of the State Emergency Service. Oleksandr Dvoretsky from Ternopil and Roman Shutylo from Luhansk region, who have been working in Kherson region for almost six months in a row, returning security to Ukrainians. Thank you!

I am grateful to Roman Radavchuk from Kyiv region, who works in Mykolaiv region, demining energy facilities. I thank Vasyl Popovych from Chernivtsi for demining in Donetsk region. I thank Yevhen Zakharov from Kyiv for demining in Kharkiv region.

I wish a speedy recovery to Yevhen Melnyk, Andriy Makoviychuk, Vitaliy Rudenko, Volodymyr Klyapchuk, Vladyslav Bak… These are pyrotechnics of the State Emergency Service who were clearing the territory of Kherson region and were injured.

I am grateful to the explosives specialists of our police. Andriy Ilkiv and Taras Sal, who worked in the de-occupied areas of Kyiv and Kharkiv regions.

I am grateful to Anatoliy Chechelnytsky for demining in Mykolaiv region.

I am grateful to Ihor Zabolotnyi, Tetiana Kuzubova, Valeriy Onul, Maryna Ostrovska and Vyacheslav Iarovyi for demining in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Chernihiv, Kherson and Kyiv regions.

I am grateful to the sappers of the National Guard of Ukraine and our Armed Forces!

Expelling the occupier, clearing our land of all traces of the evil state, and punishing terrorists are our tasks. Tasks that we will fulfill.

We Ukrainians are united. And the world is united.

Glory to all those who are fighting for Ukraine! Those who are fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, those who are defending our south, those who are holding our border. Glory to all who are preparing the de-occupation of our lands!

Eternal memory to all those whose lives were taken by Russian terror, Russian bombs, and Russian mines.

Glory to Ukraine!

The war in 🇺🇦 is one of the largest armed conflicts since WW2. The active frontline is 1,500 km. Battles are in fields, forests, on water, in the sky & cities. We continue fighting for our native land. The liberation of all occupied territories is ahead. 🇺🇦 will definitely do it. pic.twitter.com/oLDHquScjw

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 18, 2023

Here is the machine translation of today’s operational update from the Ukrainian MOD’s Telegram channel:

Ministry of Defence Ukraine✔
‼️Operational information as of 18.00 19.03.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

▪️During the day, the enemy launched 1 missile and 7 air strikes, carried out 9 attacks from rocket salvo systems. The Russian occupiers cynically attacked a residential building in the Vasylivskyi district and objects of civil infrastructure in Kamianskyi, Zaporizhzhia region. The Russian army also shelled civilian infrastructure facilities in Donetsk region. There are dead and injured, high-rise buildings, private residential buildings and schools have been damaged.

▪️On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy continues to try to break through the defenses of our troops. He led unsuccessful offensive actions in the area of ​​the settlement of Novoselivske. He carried out artillery shelling of the areas of the settlements of Vesele, Kupyansk, Krokhmalne, Pishchane and Berestov in the Kharkiv region and Novoselivske, Nevske and Bilogorivka in the Luhansk region.

🏰In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy does not stop trying to capture the city of Bakhmut. Enemy attacks were repulsed in the areas of Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Bohdanivka and Hryhorivka settlements. Vasyukivka, Bakhmut, Hryhorivka, Ivanivske, Kostyantynivka, Zalizne and a number of other settlements of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.

▪️On the Avdiyivsk, Maryinsky, and Shakhtarsky directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Kamianka, Avdiyivka, Severna, Berdychi, and Maryinka settlements. Kamianka, Avdiivka, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Georgiivka, Maryinka, Vugledar, Velyka Novosilka and Neskuchne of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.

▪️The Russian occupiers continue to exert psychological pressure on the local population in order to force them to obtain citizenship of the Russian Federation.
Thus, the counter-intelligence regime has been strengthened in the settlement of Azovske in the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region. During it, the local population is actively checked for the presence of a Russian passport. Citizens who do not have it are forced to put up with additional checks accompanied by detention.

▪️Also, the Russian occupiers continue to commit looting, taking away housing from peaceful citizens of Ukraine. In particular, in the settlement of Strilkove of the temporarily occupied territory of the Kherson region, the village council, due to the lobbying of the village head and on the basis of the forcibly collected signatures of local deputies, is developing an order regarding the forced illegal alienation of the houses of Ukrainian citizens who were forced to leave the settlement. They want to transfer the housing to servicemen of the Russian army of occupation.

✈️During the day, the Aviation of the Defense Forces struck the Russian anti-aircraft missile complex (the type is to be specified), 6 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers and ammunition depots.

🇺🇦Units of missile troops and artillery hit the enemy’s anti-aircraft missile complex “Tor” and 2 areas of concentration of the occupiers.

support🇺🇦Armed forces! We will win!
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦

🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

🚀 Ministry of Defence Ukraine👆

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Avdiivka and Bakhmut:

NOTE: Map updated with recent quantification of RU losses in the last 24 hrs. Replaces 1500 UTC TACAP.

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 19, 2023

BAKHMUT CITY /1600 UTC 19 MAR/ Positional fighting continues in urban area. RU forces have advanced NE from the Korsunskogo Street salient and are now in contact near the city center. UKR repelled RU attacks at Dubovo-Vasylivka, Hyrhorivka & Ivanivske. #BakhmutDefenders pic.twitter.com/VLjmDwuXNw

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 19, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1545 UTC 19 MAR/ Heavy urban combat continues in Bakhmut. The 0600 (Kyiv) briefing of the UKR Gen’l Staff reports that RU forces staged attacks on UKR positions in the N sector of the city. UKR repelled RU attacks at Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hyrhorivka & Ivanivske. pic.twitter.com/2OZkVRFQau

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 19, 2023

Bakhmut:

Intense fighting continues in and around Bakhmut. Video here shared by Ukrainian troops at the People’s House. It sits at the east end of Rose Alley, which used to be lined with vibrant and fragrant roses, on the bank of the city’s north pond. It was a popular place for families. pic.twitter.com/urneJYKUlx

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 19, 2023

Mariupol:

A CITY WITHIN A BUILDING: The Russian airstrike on the #Mariupol theater.

Please watch this important piece by @CST_echo @counterinv @ForensicArchi telling the untold story of weeks of self-organization, solidarity, & resistance: a city within a building.https://t.co/KYVQRkyYQa

— Lotte Leicht (@LotteLeicht1) March 19, 2023

Chasiv Yar:

Chasiv Yar is now a town without children. All have been evacuated, according to the local military administration. https://t.co/JXpmdZeYyU

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 19, 2023

Hromadske’s tweet machine translates as:

On March 16, all children were evacuated from Chasovyi Yar in Donetsk Oblast. This town is constantly shelled by Russians

The Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami shared this interesting bit about Russian tech:

2/ I didn't have a chance to take a look at it personally but according to the information provided by the fighters on the ground, the dropped beacon is believed to be an ACR RLB-37 (or 35) "GlobalFix" emergency radio beacon. pic.twitter.com/yIBHNyFLal

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 19, 2023

4/ The device has a certificate of approval from the russian Maritime Register of Shipping.

It appears that the emergency radio beacons are available for sale. The link in the image description is included. pic.twitter.com/ijZYj70d4Q

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 19, 2023

Norway:

From the Norwegian Defense Material Agency:

Signed letter of intent with the Ukrainian Defense Procurement Agency

NDMA has signed a letter of intent that describes the support the Ukrainian Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) will receive from Norwegian Defense Materiel Agency to establish a procurement organization for defense material. The agreement has a duration of three years.

– This letter of intent is the start of a long and fruitful collaboration between our agencies. I am impressed that Ukraine is able to prioritize the creation of a new agency in such a difficult time of war. I think it says something about the commitment and professionalism you show in the defense of your country, said Gro Jære, director of Norwegian Defense Materiel Agency, during the signing of the agreement at Grev Wedels Plass in Oslo on Monday this week.

Visited Norway

The signing took place in connection with a four-day visit by the Ukrainian Defense Procurement Agency to Defense Materiel this week. Delegates from the young agency established last July were here to learn more about how to establish a defense procurement organization in Ukraine. In addition, a representative from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and from the Logistics Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces participated.

– The delegation has had a packed program the past days. They have received an introduction to how we have organized the investment activities in the sector, the organization of the Norwegian Defense Materiel Agency (NDMA) and how the agency is managed and led. They have also learned about how NDMA conducts project management and mercantile processes, says Tore Kvalvik, deputy head of the Investment Department at NDMA.

Ukrainian DPA asked Norwegian Defense Materiel Agency for support to develop its agency according to Western standards and working methods in December last year. Therefore, the collaboration will also contain information about NATO standards and how other NATO countries carry out their procurement. FMA will initially cover the costs incurred by the collaboration.

Challenges with corruption

The Defense Procurement Agency was established in July last year under the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense to deal with defense procurement and establish guidelines for these. Defense procurement in Ukraine has had challenges with corruption and other fraud, and Transparency International has assessed that defense procurement in this country has a high risk of corruption.

– That is why it is a consistent theme in our support for Ukrainian DPA to build integrity into their procurement procedures, so that they reduce the risk of corruption or other unwanted incidents, Tore Kvalvik explains.

– I am proud that Ukrainian DPA has come here to learn from us. At the same time, the delegation has given us lessons that we will take with us into our development work, says Gro Jære, Director of Norwegian Defense Materiel Agency.

For those of you who like discussing whether Putin has several body doubles:

With all recent Putin's appearances in public, here's a reminder from Girkin on how to distinguish real Putin from his double. pic.twitter.com/pj4KBSZgiK

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 19, 2023

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

My first magazine cover. What it means to me — please read on my IG (enable the translate button under the text left). https://t.co/bgikqg6wZe pic.twitter.com/xgtcs636jp

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 19, 2023

Here’s the machine translation from Patron’s Instagram:

My first cover.

A week ago, I saw a funny post titled “The Day the Patron appeared to the people.” It was my first photo on social media a year ago, and it started it all.

My parents always predicted fame for me. And not for the quality of my outstanding talents, but only for my dog-like beauty: I was so cute with my face. 😄
But even more than my pretty face, I was lucky to get into a family that didn’t need millions of likes. When my nose was already everywhere, Mykhailo was upset at first. Hundreds of cameras and journalists were very embarrassing for his modest personality. Mykhailo was embarrassed by questions that were not related to demining. But later, about a year ago, this profile was created, and we started receiving the first comments from you. “I cried all day, no, a week or two. And then I saw Patron. He is so small, but so brave. I smiled for the first time in all this time.”
And then we realized: fame is not just about attention and likes. Fame can be converted into thousands of good deeds. It is like a portal to millions of kind hearts that are ready to help Ukrainians survive. And also… that I can give a smile and comfort to many people not only in Ukraine but also around the world.🥹
My most important job is to help the SES sappers. Not only through my sense of smell in the fields or forests, but also through our fundraising.
Unfortunately, over the past few weeks, the foundation has been sending money only for treatment and assistance to the families of the victims. 😔
Although I hoped that the funds would be accumulated there to buy demining machines. My dream is to buy hundreds of these machines so that my guys can operate them remotely. So that they don’t have to go into the field, so that they don’t endanger themselves.
Scroll through the carousel. Spring and the sowing season are starting. This tractor was on its way to work. And it hit a mine. Two units of my team went on a rotation. Every day they find dozens and sometimes hundreds of explosive devices.
Many of you are planning to return to your homes. I am asking you to be very careful and cautious. Do not approach, do not touch and call 101 immediately!
If you have the desire and ability to help my efforts, I will be very grateful 🫶🏻
I leave a link to the bank account of the Patron Dog Foundation in my stories.
PayPal [email protected]

Have a nice lick, everyone!!!! 👅

And a new video of Patron and his stuffed fren from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Відео для того, щоб відправити його тій самій людині з підписом «ми»💓😊

♬ original sound – StarWars.videos

Here is the machine translation of the caption:

Video to send to the same person with the signature “we” 💓😊

Open thread!

 

War for Ukraine Day 389: Sunday! Sunday!! SUNDAY!!!!Post + Comments (29)

War for Ukraine Day 388: The Security Service of Ukraine Is on the Hunt!

by Adam L Silverman|  March 18, 20238:11 pm| 61 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Crest of the Security Service of Ukraine)

The Security Service of Ukraine went hunting overnight.

Ukrainian nights eulogised by poets…
10 ruscists tanks and 1 armored personnel carrier were destroyed by @ServiceSsu special forces in just one night.
This is more than just a video, this is a song for which the lyrics have not yet been written. pic.twitter.com/snVmZB79Jp

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 18, 2023

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

When Ukraine defends itself, when the power of justice are restored on our land, it will guarantee peace for many other parts of the world as well – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

18 March 2023 – 21:24

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

There are new NSDC sanctions. More than 400 individuals and companies. Most of them are Russian. It is the defense industry of the terrorist state. But these are also Iranian, and Syrian individuals, those who help terror.

We study in depth each of our sanctioning steps. Ukrainian sanctions are part of global pressure on Russia. All those who produce weapons for terror against Ukraine, who help Russia incite aggression, in particular by supplying Shahed drones, who support Russia’s destruction of international law, can only be marginals for the world. Those who will eventually be held accountable for everything they do against our people, against people in general, against international law.

And this, by the way, will concern not only terror against Ukrainians, not only attempts to annex our land, starting with Crimea, but also other Russian aggressions against the international order, against normal, peaceful human life. In particular, on the territory of Syria. The people of Syria have not received adequate international protection, and this has given the Kremlin and its accomplices a sense of impunity. Russian bombs destroyed the cities of Syria in the same way as our Ukrainian cities. This impunity is a significant part of the Kremlin’s current aggressiveness.

When the Ukrainian people defend themselves, when the power of the UN Charter and the power of justice are restored on our land, this will guarantee peace for many other parts of the world as well. It is what our global coalition, the anti-war coalition, works for.

This week brought good weapon results for our resistance to Russian aggression. Another Ramstein meeting was held.

There are new defense packages from our friends: Canada, Germany, France, Denmark, Estonia. They concern ammunition and accouterments, tanks and artillery. There is a much-needed solution to the Archer systems – Sweden, thank you very much. The decision on MiG fighters – Slovakia, thank you very much. Poland, Lithuania, the UK, the European Union, the United States, and many others continue to provide powerful assistance.

I’m thankful to all our partners!

A talk between Ukraine and the United States in an expanded defense format took place. The Minister of Defense, the Commander-in-Chief, the commanders of operational strategic groups – they are Generals Syrsky and Tarnavsky, the commander of the Air Force, and the head of the Office participated from the side of Ukraine. I joined this conversation. Our goal is obvious – it is strengthening our soldiers, new solutions for Ukraine to be able to take active actions and protect itself from Russian terror, to restore real security.

These decisions will be made.

There is only one subject that destroys life, and that is Russia. There is only one way to protect life – it is necessary to expel the Russian army from Ukrainian land. And we will do it.

I thank all our soldiers of the Air Force, all our pilots, and anti-aircraft fighters who shoot down killer drones and missiles!

I thank each unit of our defense and security forces, which responds to the occupier’s attacks on our cities. Dnipropetrovsk region, Kharkiv region, Donetsk region, Luhansk region, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy region, and Chernihiv region – for each of our regions suffering from Russian terror, the occupier will tangibly pay with its losses.

I will once again mention our soldiers in Donetsk region, those who cause the losses to the enemy the most. Marines of the 35th and 36th separate brigades, fighters of the 79th separate air assault brigade, soldiers of the 11th border guard detachment, the 55th separate artillery brigade, the 72nd separate mechanized brigade, and the 74th separate reconnaissance battalion… I’m thankful to you, warriors!

I especially thank everyone who defends Bakhmut every day.

The battles right there, exactly in these parts of Donbas – Vuhledar, Bakhmut, Maryinka, Belohorivka, Avdiyivka, Kamianka – make it possible to return security to Ukraine, to all of Europe, to every nation that values its freedom and the integrity of its land.

Glory to all our soldiers who are now in battle!

Glory to everyone who helps!

Thank you to everyone who trains our soldiers, who treats injuries, who volunteers, and who supports the fighting spirit of Ukrainians!

Glory to all of you!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s today’s operational update, as a machine translation, from Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense’s Telegram Channel:

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine✔
!!️Operational information as of 18.00 18.03.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

Russian Federation continues to lead offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiyevsky, Mariinsky and Shakhtar directions. Bakhmut remains the epicenter of hostilities.

▪️During the day the enemy caused 5 missile strikes, 4 of them – on the objects of civilian infrastructure of the city of Zaporizhia. The enemy also struck 12 air strikes and fired more than 20 from volley jet fire systems.

▪️In the Kupiansky and Lyman directions, the enemy continues to try to break through the defenses of our troops. He led unsuccessful offensive actions in the settlements of Dibrov, Upper Kamen and Spirne. Carried out artillery shelling in the settlements of Putnikove, Krasne First, Dvorichna, Hryanovyk, Kupyansk, Krokhmal and Berestov region of Kharkiv; Novoselivsky, Nevsky and Beloglyavka – Luhansk, as well as Spirne and Fedorovka in Donetsk.

▪️In the Bakhmut direction the enemy does not stop trying to capture the city of Bakhmut. Our defenders reflected enemy attacks in the settlements of Orykhovo-Vasilivka, Grigorivka and in northern part Bakhmuta. Enemy shelling was carried out, in particular, Vasyukivka, Rakhnyanske, Orykhovo-Vasylivka, Grigorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Chasiv Yar, Kurdyumivka, Ozaryanovka and the Northern Donetsk region.

▪️In the Avdiivsky, Mariinsky and Shakhtar directions the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the settlements of Kamyanka, Severne, Pervomaiske and Mariinka. Kamyanka, Lastochkine, Avdiyivka, Tonenke, Georgiivka, Nevel, Mariinka, Vugledar and Velyka Novosylka, Donetsk region, came under fire.

▪️The Russian occupiers continue to use civilian institutions in the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhia region for their own needs. In particular, the school building of one of the settlements of the Pologo district is used by the enemy as a field hospital for 50 beds. Thus, the occupiers try to reduce the period of return to the staff from the number of sanitary losses.

▪️In the Ruby Luhansk region, local the so-called occupation government forces the population to obtain the citizenship of the Russian federation. Ukrainian passports are not yet taken away from people, however, to have a passport of a citizen of the Russian Federation for employment.

⁇ ️During the day, the Aviation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck 6 strikes on the areas of concentration of invaders.

Also, this day, our defenders shot down the enemy UAV « Shahed-136» ⁇ ️✖️, a
🇺🇦units of rocket troops and artillery per day affected 7 areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the enemy.

Support 🇺🇦Armed Forces! Let’s win!
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦

🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

🚀 Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 👆

And a counter-disinformation announcement from Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malar:

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine✔
🗣We do not mobilize women without their consent – Anna Malar

🤚Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malar:

💬 Kremlin propaganda continues to spread fakes and myths, to use fact-driven manipulation to influence Ukrainian society.
In particular, Kremlin propagandists are working on the topic of discrediting mobilization.

Yes, again, the message about the mobilization of women returned to the agenda of pro-Russian telegrams-channels. It would seem that this topic has not received much interest for so many times, but they are persistently trying to promote it «, despite the lack of success.

⁇ ️We do not mobilize women without their consent, not even doctors. And do not send without their consent to the front edge.
If a conscript receives a summons, it is to clarify the data. Because they, according to the law, have to do it for 5 years.

Information is also constantly being spread that there will be summonses through «Action».

Currently, summonses through «Action» are not issued. And the question is not processed.

Another Russian narrative that the mobilized are immediately sent to Bakhmut without training.

In fact, mobilized people who have not served in the military are sent to training centers. Due to the large-scale war, the training of the rank and sergeant staff takes place in reduced terms, but without reducing the quality of training.

!!️If you have been sent to the front edge without gun ownership and training skills, you must report it to the hotline phones. In order to understand and take action quickly, you need to name the name of the mobilized person and the number of the military unit to which they were sent and which the TCC SP sent. Hotline numbers of the Ministry of Defense: 0-800-500-410, 0-800-500-442 and 044-454-44-99

In addition, it should be known that the mobilized are sent to different directions, not just the East.

There are many rear military units in different regions of Ukraine, whose task is to bring our Victory closer. The range is wide – from educational institutions and departments, to bases, warehouses and arsenals, but you can add repair parts, communication parts and cyber defense. It is worth mentioning airfields, spies, car bases. Their protection and defense are needed around the clock. And such positions are also mobilized.

Last night, russians attacked Ukraine with Iran-made Shahed drones.
11 of them were shot down by Ukraine's air defense.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 18, 2023

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Kreminna and Bakhmut. The most recent of the two Bakhmut assessments is first.

KREMINNA AXIS /2300 UTC 18 MAR/ Note updated lines of contact. UKR forces remain in contact with RU forces within urban areas of Kreminna. Russians shell Nevske, Dibrova and Bilohorvika. pic.twitter.com/5qe4ZLMLMB

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 18, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /2240 UTC 18 MAR/ Positional combat continues in the northern urban areas. The 1800 (Kyiv) briefing of the Gen’l Staff reports that UKR repelled RU attacks at Dubovo-Vasylivka, Hyrhorivka & Ivanivske. pic.twitter.com/6IVLuZeHvg

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 18, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1020 UTC 18 MAR/ Positional combat continues in the urban areas of Bakhmut. S of the city, UKR repelled RU attacks at Ivanivske & Klischiivka; the latter engagement confirms UKR progress east of the canal network. Air defense downs a Russian Su-25 strike aircraft. pic.twitter.com/pvUCM0yjwz

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 18, 2023

Here’s updates from Noel on Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Kupyansk:

To the front. In Bakhmut little has changed compared to this morning. Ukrainian troops pushed Russian troops back a little to the east of the Mig-17 monument. Heavy fighting continues around Khromove. In the north of Bakhmut it is oddly quiet. pic.twitter.com/Jiq7fhEur5

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) March 18, 2023

In Avdiivka it seems (unfortunately) that Russians have gained a foothold in Krasnohorivka. There are multiple confirmations from private sources, fighting is going on, AFU is offering fierce resistance to the Russians. AFU repelled attacks on Nevelske, Pervomaiske and Sjeverne pic.twitter.com/q4Drhw0XE3

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) March 18, 2023

In Kupyansk it is relatively quiet. There are other reporters who still consider Hryanikivka contested, but I can assure you that Ukrainian troops are no longer there. The front is further south, at Lyman Pershyi. This village changes hands quite often. pic.twitter.com/NTg6fYHM0X

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) March 18, 2023

Zaporizhzhia:

Last night Russia attacked Ukraine with 16 Shaheds from Bryansk and the Sea of Azov. Air defense shot down 11, including over Kyiv. 5 kamikaze drones hit Novomoskovsk and Yavoriv.

Zaporizhzhia was attacked with S-300 – on video. pic.twitter.com/3GxksePFEq

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 18, 2023

Kyiv:

Inaction kills….just like a bullet.

The graffiti in Kyiv is always profound. pic.twitter.com/CIEeiivXlS

— Larisa Galadza – Лариса Ґаладза (@LGaladza) March 18, 2023

Sevastopol:

A visibly limping Putin arrived in occupied Crimea

Russian sources report Putin's visit to Sevastopol to «celebrate» the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea

Which, by the way, will be one of the items on Putin's list of accusations at The Hague Court. pic.twitter.com/XPJDGqvT9e

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) March 18, 2023

De-occupation of all the captured territories lies ahead.
And Ukraine will do it.

🎥@United24media pic.twitter.com/QzziYoffpS

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 18, 2023

Somewhere in England:

*a standard joke on right-hand British tanks* pic.twitter.com/Rt9hv1c7Rk

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 18, 2023

The two best replies:

Though I hear they are very safe during collisions

— Alex (@CloudsGalore) March 18, 2023

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

A curious situation is developing in the balneological resort town of Goryachy Klyuch in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, between the town's administration and PMC Wagner.

The town's administration denied the previously approved request for the group to bury mercenaries killed in… https://t.co/WWGfdcyy5e pic.twitter.com/jBqZZf9udx

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 18, 2023

I wanted to post this last night, but I couldn’t find a version that wasn’t behind Spiegel‘s paywall:

++++Exclusive: Yulia Navalnaya, wife of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexey ⁦@navalny⁩, slams Russian invasion of Ukraine. „It cannot be forgiven“, Ms Navalnaya told ⁦@derspiegel⁩ in one of her very rare interviews. Russian ruler… https://t.co/VybwmCSoCX

— Fidelius Schmid (@FideliusSchmid) March 17, 2023

Fortunately, Fidelius Schmid who conducted the interview, posted a link to a free English version. Here’s the one bit about Ukraine:

DER SPIEGEL: The suppression of the opposition is getting more and more aggressive.

Navalnaya: Alexei was detained for the first time in 2011 and given 14 days in jail. In 2013, he was sentenced to five years in prison. Only the overwhelming support of the people who came out into the streets helped to free him. For us, it was always clear that the longer Putin stays in power, the worse it would get. Putin will stop at nothing to keep power and money. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, I think it became obvious to everyone. It can’t be forgiven. He even has gone so far as to threaten the world with nuclear weapons.

I can’t get to the original German version because of the paywall, but based on this translation I’m not really sure whether Mrs. Navalnaya  is stating that the the full-scale invasion of Ukraine cannot be forgiven or Putin stopping at nothing to keep power and money or the suppression of the opposition, which is the subject of the question. Or all of the above. I will say that I’ve read several profiles of and interviews with Mrs. Navalnaya over the years and my impression is that she’s a decent person trying to do her best under circumstances that would break most people. So I’m willing to give the benefit of the doubt here and chalk the confusion up to a bad translation.

Here’s a bit about how Putin and his lackeys are torturing Navalny in prison: (emphasis mine)

DER SPIEGEL: The reports about Alexei’s state of health have recently caused concern around the world. Is he sick?

Navalnaya: It started in January. It could have been the flu or COVID – they don’t do tests in the (penal) colony. But it was more severe than the usual illness and it lasted longer – for a month or so. Alexei was not given any medical care and was not hospitalized. They sent this man who had been infected to his prison cell to make him even worse.

DER SPIEGEL: A man who suffered from tuberculosis. Do you think that was intentional? Was the intent to infect your husband?

Navalnaya: It happened several times. It is difficult to explain to people from Germany or the United States. How could this happen? But this is the way the Russian prison system works. They treat some people as tools. In Alexei’s case, they try to make his conditions unbearable by any means they have.

DER SPIEGEL: How is he doing in the meantime?

Navalnaya: Of course, after the poisoning (in 2020), his health isn’t fine. He says all the time he’s OK. But I know I’m probably the last person he would tell that he’s not OK. So, when he says publicly that he’s not doing great, I know he feels really bad. For instance, during the hunger strike in April 2021. At the time, I felt that the situation was critical.

DER SPIEGEL: Do you believe his life is in imminent danger?

Navalnaya: He spends much of his time in solitary confinement without proper access to health care. In conditions like that, when you have health problems, they don’t get better, they get worse. He has problems with his hands in the morning, one of his legs feels numb, and he has problems with his back. He is constantly in danger because he is in the hands of the people who tried to kill him with poison. So, he’s in big danger every day and it worries me a lot.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Хто також має джек рассела? Пишіть у коментах, про які ще приколи я забув розповісти😄 #песпатрон #джекрассел

♬ France Accordion Swing – MIZUSATO Masaki

Here is the machine translation of the caption:

Who also has a jack of all trades? Write in the comments what other jokes I forgot to tell you about 😄 #песпатрон#джекрассел

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 388: The Security Service of Ukraine Is on the Hunt!Post + Comments (61)

War for Ukraine Day 387: Friday!!!!

by Adam L Silverman|  March 17, 20237:54 pm| 40 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

FRIDAY!!!!! I’m feeling all of the long week. So just a quick update and then I’m to bed!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

International Criminal Court issues warrant of arrest for Putin; the historic decision, from which historical responsibility will begin – address of President of Ukraine

17 March 2023 – 20:26

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Today, we have a fundamental decision of international justice. In a case which has a true prospect. The International Criminal Court issued a warrant of arrest for Putin.

The historic decision, from which historical responsibility will begin.

The head of the terrorist state and another Russian official have officially become suspects in a war crime. The deportation of Ukrainian children – the illegal transfer of thousands of our children to the territory of the terrorist state.

Over 16,000 cases of forced deportation of Ukrainian children by the occupier have already been recorded in criminal proceedings investigated by our law enforcement officers.

But the real, full number of deportees may be much higher.

It would be impossible to commit such a criminal operation without the order of the top leader of the terrorist state.

Separating children from their families, depriving them of any opportunity to contact their relatives, hiding children on the territory of Russia, throw them in remote regions – all this is an obvious state policy of Russia, state decisions and state evil. Which begins precisely with the top official of this state.

I am grateful to the team of Prosecutor Karim Khan and the International Criminal Court, everyone in the world who is helping us in the fight for justice. I am grateful for integrity and willingness to really bring to justice those who are guilty.

So far, it has been possible to return a little more than 300 children from all those who were taken away by force, stolen from Ukraine. It is obvious that we have to return everyone.

It is obvious that we will continue doing everything for this. For returning every Ukrainian, every Ukrainian woman, every our child. And for the real responsibility of all those responsible for this deportation – from the head of the terrorist state to all the executors.

I held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief today. The main focus is on the battles in Donbas: Avdiyivka, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Maryinka, Bilohorivka.

The main focus is on our soldiers, how to support our brigades, how to give them more strength, opportunities, more weapons and protection.

As always, the Commander-in-Chief, intelligence, task force commanders reported. The commander of Khortytsia group General Syrsky, the commander of Tavria group General Tarnavsky. It is these groups that operate in Donbas.

And I thank every soldier, every sergeant, every officer – everyone who acts on the front line, everyone who maintains a real defense with their endurance and courage. Thank you for resilience, for strength and for the fact that the state sees a prospect for our defense operations, for further active actions.

Today, I would like to pay particular attention to the fighters of our special units.

Special Operations Forces – 8th Separate Special Forces Regiment, thank you guys for the filigree destruction of the enemy near Bakhmut and the powerful reinforcement of our defenses in this direction, in Bakhmut.

Thank you to all our Special Operations Forces fighters who defend Luhansk region.

Special gratitude goes to our Navy SEALs, the Naval Special Purpose Center, for the successful actions in the south, for the tangible losses of the enemy near Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, for the powerful response we give to the occupier to its attacks on our forces and cities.

Thank you to the soldiers of the Security Service of Ukraine. To all our defenders from the Alpha unit, in particular from the White Wolf and Kusto groups. The 13th Directorate of SSU Military Counterintelligence – thank you all!

Thank you to the soldiers of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense – every soldier, every unit. I thank the soldiers of our International Legion, all who feel the need to fight for freedom in the same way that Ukrainians feel this need.

I spoke today with the Prime Minister of Slovakia. I thanked him for the new and strong defense support package. In particular, for MiG fighters, which will fly for the security of Ukraine and the whole of Europe. We agreed to continue our security dialogue – in Ukraine.

And, by the way, we are already working on the next weeks’ tasks – the time that we will use to strengthen Ukraine, to supply new weapons to our soldiers and to speed up the punishment – the punishment of Russia for this war.

Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine!

Glory to everyone who helps us protect our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Every criminal must be held accountable, especially when a top official is involved in the deportation of children.
We’ve been flagging russian war crimes for a long time.
The arrest warrants for the ugly duo are just the beginning. The tribunal, verdicts&punishments are coming. pic.twitter.com/st8T4Qs5FJ

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) March 17, 2023

Here is some #NAFO art for your Friday night.
Time for some Guinness ☘️ ☘️ ☘️#HappyStPatricksDay pic.twitter.com/pezgMOGAEf

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 17, 2023

Just to be clear, that’s Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov between Defense Minister Shoigu and Putin, not former Secretary of Defense Hagel.

Here is the most recent operational update, machine translated, from the Ukrainian MOD’s Telegram channel:

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine✔
!!️Operational information as of 18.00 17.03.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

▪️During the day the aggressor caused 19 air strikes and fired 26 from jet volley fire systems.

▪️In the Kupiansky and Lyman directions, the enemy tried unsuccessfully to break through the defenses of our troops. A number of settlements along the battle line were hit by the detailed artillery shelling, namely: Vesele, Grjanivka, Wilshan, Krokhmalne, Berestov, Dibrov and Andriyivka, Kharkiv region and Novoezhorivka, Nevsky and Belogorivka – Luhansk. Occupiers unsuccessfully tried to step in the direction of Grianytsia, Upper Kamenko and Spirny.

▪️In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy does not leave attempts to capture the city of Bakhmut where constant positional fighting continues. At the same time, our defenders reflected enemy attacks in the settlements of Klyshchyk and Ivanivsky. Enemy shelling was carried out, in particular, by Minkivka, Orykhovo-Vasilivka, Rakhlyanske, Vasyukivka, Bakhmut, Grigorivka, Ivanovske, Ozaryanovka and Alexandro-Shultine of the Donetsk region.

▪️In the Avdiyevsky, Mariinsky and Shakhtar directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the direction of the settlements of Kamyanka, Nevelsk, Avdiyivka and Marjinka in the Donetsk region. Enemy shelling was carried out, in particular, Kamyanka, Avdiyivka, Vodian, Krasnyrovka, Georgiivka, Maximilianovka, Marinka, Vugledar, Velyka Novosylka and Zolota Niva of the Donetsk region.

▪️In the city of Svatovo Luhansk region, in one of the buildings, which is located in the eastern part of the city, there is a new hospital of the occupiers. There are currently about 30 heavily wounded military zs rf, which have been brought there over the past two days. In general there is an increase in the number of heavily injured Russian military – evacuation flights to the territory of Russia increased from two to three per week. The wounded are involved in the maintenance of locals who have at least some medical education.

▪️Russian occupiers, with the active support of local collaborators, increase the number of tortures in temporarily occupied and captured areas Ukraine. Thus, the newly created rink was spotted in the southeastern part of Energor in the Zaporizhia region. Citizens with pro-Ukrainian views are subjected to brutal torture there, as well as those who do not want to comply with the demands of the local so-called occupation authorities.

⁇ ️ Aviation Defense Forces per day inflicted 6 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers.

Support 🇺🇦 Armed Forces!
Let’s win together!
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦

🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

🚀 Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 👆

And here is a machine translated statement from the Land Force Component Commander Colonel General Syrskyi:

Ministry of Defense of Ukraine✔
Forwarded from Military Media Center
Commander of the Land Forces Colonel-General Alexander Sirsky:

In fact, throughout the eastern front line, the enemy is carrying out offensive actions, trying to break through the defenses of our troops and move into the depths of their fighting orders.

The most fierce battles continue in the areas of Kreminny, Torsky, White-tree, Spirny.

However, the epicenter of hostilities remains Bakhmut. Fights for the city continue.

The enemy has used all its power and is trying to break through the defense in several directions and completely surround the city.

Fights go to the north, east and south of the city, thanks to the courage of our soldiers, the enemy suffers huge losses and once again rolls away without success.

Unfortunately, we have losses, but much less than our defenders inflict on the enemy.

In some areas, our units are partially successful.

A little public diplomacy from the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs:

This is going to become one of my favourite soundbites from any foreign minister I have interviewed. I asked @DmytroKuleba what was behind the creative diplomacy Ukraine had shown during the war: pic.twitter.com/a1RlMzgp5e

— James Landale (@BBCJLandale) March 17, 2023

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Bakhmut – newest first:

BAKHMUT CITY TACMAP /2240 UTC 17 MAR/ Urban fighting continues. The line of contact in the north sector of the city conforms with the rail right-of-way. In the south, RU forces are attempting to close the gap between the H-32 and T-05-13 HWYs. #BakhmutMap pic.twitter.com/fGj1oEqdS6

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 17, 2023

BAKMUT AXIS/1320 UTC 17 MAR/RU maintains important lodgments in the SW urban area of Bakhmut. UKR troops hold defense positions along the rail right-of-way, the H-32 HWY and Korsunskogo Street southern urban area.  //Urban TACMAP to follow.// #BakhmutMap pic.twitter.com/pe9GemwG2y

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 17, 2023

Bakhmut:

A late posted video update from Kyianyn:

Quick update from fired up Kyianyn – 16 March. pic.twitter.com/1jKm09Ud1i

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 16, 2023

Chasiv Yar:

Fighters of the 71st Jaeger Brigade defend the city of Chasiv Yar in the Donbas, preventing Russians from cutting the supply line to Bakhmut.

One of the heroes here is the commander of the special purpose group Petro, callsign "Kharkiv", who went to his position immediately… https://t.co/DmfichfUN8 pic.twitter.com/xTODL3POIz

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 17, 2023

Avdiivka:

Avdiivka, Donetsk region.
The result of four russian air strikes today.#russiaisaterroriststate

📷 Office of the President of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/18VPw7GwXb

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 17, 2023

Eastern, southern, northern, and parts of central Ukraine:

Ukraine under Shahed attack these minutes. Russia is possibly preparing for the next missile attack and uses drones to detect air defense. pic.twitter.com/0Ma6y2GM07

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) March 17, 2023

For those who are curious, and I apologize for not posting it sooner, here is the link to the air raid alert map of Ukraine.

The Slovak Republic:

#Slovak gov. just approved sending 13 #MiG29s to #Ukraine! Promises must be kept&when @ZelenskyyUa asked for more #weapons incl. fighter jets, I said we’ll do our best. Glad others’re doing the same. #Military aid’s🔑to ensure🇺🇦can defend itself&the entire #Europe against #Russia

— Eduard Heger (@eduardheger) March 17, 2023

Our hearts w/Ukraine. Our jets for Ukraine. 🇸🇰🤝🇺🇦 #Slovakia is to donate 13 MiG-29 jets (and SA-6 air def system) to #Ukraine. Agreement signed ✅@UKRinSR @DefenceU @MyroslavKastran @oleksiireznikov @Slovakia_NATO @USEmbassySK @ZelenskyyUa pic.twitter.com/f0obiLsl2R

— Jaro Nad (@JaroNad) March 17, 2023

Ukrainian angels from @KpsZSU are ready to protect good and punish evil. But they need wings.
MiG-29 jets + Kub air defense system from 🇸🇰 will help us defend our skies effectively.
Thank you to @eduardheger @JaroNad and the 🇸🇰 people.
Aircraft coalition is assembling! pic.twitter.com/15A9GhuO42

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) March 17, 2023

That’s enough for tonight. Provided I’m feeling rested and refreshed, I’ll get to some of the longer stuff tomorrow night.

Your daily Patron!

Today I just want to listen to the songs of Lady GAAGA. Don’t know why 😏

— Patron (@PatronDsns) March 17, 2023

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Який ваш улюблений?😁 #песпатрон

♬ Mickey Mouse Club House Theme – TootyMcNooty

Here is the machine translation of the caption:

Which is your favorite? 😁 #песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 387: Friday!!!!Post + Comments (40)

War for Ukraine Day 386: Is It Friday Yet?

by Adam L Silverman|  March 16, 20236:34 pm| 44 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I really shouldn’t complain. I get to sleep in my own bed, have my dogs around, and no one is trying to shoot me, bomb me, and/or otherwise blow me up. Anyhow, this has been a long and draining week. So let’s get to it.

Before we really start, and before someone asks in comments, I am aware of social media chatter that Russia put the Belgorod to sea, that it was seen off the coast of the US last week, etc. Everything seems to track back to a Newsweek article that doesn’t actually mention the Belgorod at all. And H.I. Sutton didn’t have anything about it on his feed, which tells me that the Belgorod may be at sea, but there isn’t any actual news about it. For those who are trying to figure out why Russia has decided to float an an entire city, the Belgorod is supposed to be their cutting edge submarine that can shoot the cuttingest of edgiest nukes. The sea trials and participation in naval exercises have not really gone well.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: All Rashists will be held accountable for every Ukrainian life taken

16 March 2023 – 22:03

Dear Ukrainians!

A year ago, the Russian military committed one of the worst crimes of this war. Russian bombs destroyed a theater in Mariupol. A building that was used as a shelter. There were women with children, pregnant women, and the elderly. A civilian object deliberately destroyed by the occupier. We still don’t know the exact number of victims. Hundreds of people? A thousand?

The inscriptions “Children” next to the building clearly indicated who became the target for Russia. One of many such targets. The evil state will be held accountable for each of them.

In mid-March last year, the occupier was still in the north of our country. In many places in the Kharkiv region. The enemy had completely different positions in the south. But already then we began to drive them out. The day will come when we will liberate Mariupol. Our entire south. Our entire east. Just like we liberated our other cities.

The day will come when a tribunal will be established to bring justice to our people. A tribunal that will punish this aggressor in the same way as the aggressors of the past were punished.

The day will come when all the perpetrators of war crimes against Ukrainians will be brought to justice in the halls of the International Criminal Court and national courts.

We will do all the legal work. We will mobilize all the partners that are necessary for this. This is already being done. Every day we bring justice closer to Ukraine. We work for this every day. The Prosecutor General and his Office, Ukrainian law enforcers, special services, the government, diplomats, my Office.

Rashism will not be able to remain unpunished evil. There will be punishment. And if some terrorists hope to hide somewhere… It will not work for them.

All those who bombed Ukraine. Who burned our villages, who shelled Ukrainian cities… Mykolaiv, Kherson, Nikopol and Marhanets, Zaporizhzhia, cities of Donbas, Kharkiv, Kharkiv region. All those who carry out terrorist fire against the communities of Chernihiv and Sumy regions… All those who brought the war to Donetsk and Luhansk. All those who tried to enslave Crimea. All Rashists will be held accountable. They will be held to account for every Ukrainian life taken.

Eternal memory to all our people, all adults and children whose lives were taken by Russian terror!

Today I spoke with the British Prime Minister. Generally, we talked about how to increase our defense capabilities. As always, it was a very concrete conversation, and I thank Rishi, I thank all the British people for their unflagging and attentive support. There will be the results of the conversation. Our warriors will see them.

Today I also met with the Prime Minister of Latvia in Kyiv. I thanked him for the new defense package for our country, for the principled support at all levels – from weapons to politics, from sanctions against Russia to legal issues.

We are constantly working on two directions of our foreign policy – European and Euro-Atlantic. With all our partners. With officials and public figures, with politicians and all other communities that have influence.

I thank Latvia for supporting Ukraine on both of these paths. The European Union and NATO. Today we spoke with Prime Minister Kariņš about the respective prospects for this year.

Ukraine has always been Europe. Ukraine will always be Europe. Russian bombs will not change the objective reality. The reality that Ukrainians are defending.

I thank everyone who is fighting now near Maryinka, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, in Luhansk region, on the frontline in the south. I thank everyone who makes Russia admit the fact that responsibility for evil is inevitable.

Paratroopers of the 79th brigade – I am thankful to you today as well! The 35th and 36th separate marine brigades – thank you guys! Warriors of the 55th separate artillery brigade – well done! The 74th separate reconnaissance battalion – thank you! I thank the warriors of the National Guard who are fighting in the east together with all our defense forces. Battalion groups of the Central and Western operational and territorial units of the National Guard – thank you, guys! Zaporizhzhia direction: the 128th separate mountain assault brigade and the 44th separate artillery brigade – as always, well done! Kharkiv region: the 3rd separate tank Iron brigade, the 1st separate Bohun special forces brigade, the 127th separate brigade of the territorial defense – thank you, warriors!

Glory to each and every one who is now fighting for Ukraine!

I am grateful to each and every one who brings accountability for the evil state closer!

All of Ukraine will be free.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is the most recent operational update, as a machine translation, from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s Telegram channel:

Ministry of Defence Ukraine✔

‼️Operational information as of 18.00 on 16.03.2023 regarding the Russian invasion

▪️During the day, the enemy launched 2 rocket and 16 air strikes, as well as carried out 25 attacks from rocket salvo systems.

▪️On the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Hryanikyvka, Kreminna, Kuzmyne, Verkhnyokamianske and Spirne settlements. The areas of the settlements of Dvorichna, Hryanikyvka and Krokhmalne of the Kharkiv region, as well as Nevske and Bilogorivka – Luhansk were shelled with artillery.

▪️In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy continues to storm the city of Bakhmut. Our defenders repelled enemy attacks in the districts of Orihovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivskyi and Hryhorivka. In particular, Vasyukivka, Zaliznyanske, Hryhorivka, Novomarkove, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Mayorsk, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.

▪️On the Avdiyivka, Maryinka, and Shakhtarsk directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the districts of Kamianka, Avdiivka, Nevelsky, and Maryinka. Continues preparations to resume the offensive on Ugledar. In particular, Kamianka, Avdiivka, Lastochkine, Vodyane, Nevelske, Netaylove, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Georgiivka and Vugledar of the Donetsk region came under enemy fire.

❗️Russia continues to export looted grain from Ukraine. In the city of Berdyansk, Zaporizhzhia region, from the water area of ​​the sea port, the transportation of a Russian self-propelled barge loaded with wheat by enemy tugs was noted.

▪️Forced passporting of the population of the temporarily occupied territory of the Zaporizhia region continues . So, in the city of Tokmak, the so-called Russian occupation authorities, together with representatives of the Russian FSB, threaten local citizens of Ukraine, who refused to receive passports of citizens of the Russian Federation, with the removal of their children to the eastern regions of Russia. The parents themselves are threatened with deportation to Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia region.

✈️During the day, the Aviation of the Defense Forces carried out 7 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers.

🇺🇦Units of missile troops and artillery hit 3 control points, 2 areas of concentration of enemy personnel and military equipment, 2 radar stations, as well as a warehouse of enemy fuel and lubricants.

support🇺🇦Armed forces! We will win!
Glory to Ukraine!🇺🇦

🇺🇦General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

🚀 Ministry of Defence Ukraine👆

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Kreminna and Bakhmut:

KREMINNA AXIS /2110 UTC 16 MAR/ UKR forces great up Russian counter-attacks in southern urban area of Kreminna city. UKR artillery and missile forces target Russian HQs, radar stations and troop concentrations. pic.twitter.com/ib5gCQOMJi

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 16, 2023

Notice the changes in the three hours between the two Bakhmut updates below:

BAKHMUT CITY /1745 UTC 16 MAR/ CRITICAL/ RU forces have made an important advance in the SW urban area. The line of contact now conforms to Korsunskogo Street. The development jeopardizes the S quadrant of the Bakhmut urban area.
NOTE: New street projection of city. pic.twitter.com/e6plVfhWMM

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 16, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1410 UTC 16 MAR/CRITICAL/ Russian forces have registered important gains in the urban areas of Bakhmut. Critically, RU troops are in contact along the rail right-of-way, the H-32 HWY and the Korsunskogo / Ushinskogo Street cut-off in the southern urban area. pic.twitter.com/jxVeSi3ItH

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) March 16, 2023

Bakhmut:

Ukrainian channel "Bakhmut Demon" with close links to defenders of Bakhmut gives an update, believes encirclement of the city is unlikely, "even Russians don't believe it". pic.twitter.com/47V1DeDMlf

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 15, 2023

Here’s the screengrab of Dmitri’s translation from the tweet above:

Zaporizhzhia:

Leader of the nazi group Rusich reveals that in his inspection of the so-called "Surovikin line" of defence in Zaporizhzhia, he found a large number of inconsistencies and issues that pose a threat to its defenders. He says the line is built by civilians https://t.co/8XaLVUOeKp… https://t.co/e2fev1THb5 pic.twitter.com/3KDOdkkB3e

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 16, 2023

Here’s the machine translation from Rusich’s Telegram channel:

DSHRG Rusich
We pass by the fortification of the “Surovikin” line (or as many people call the “Faberge” line). In the process, we periodically stop and inspect it, while noticing a number of interesting facts.
It is built mainly by civilians, they try to do it qualitatively and put their soul into the construction (we saw how the bulldozer driver spent an extra 40 minutes making a neat exit from the strong point so that: – “It was more convenient for the guys to
re-equip”)However, in many areas they noticed nuances:

The first of them – the line is built explicitly on the map (and the old one) and in some places the terrain is simply not taken into account.
That is, an anti-tank ditch and a line of concrete “dragon’s teeth” on the reverse slope (300 meters from the ridge) from the direction of the expected strike, and the trenches are almost in a lowland.
The enemy, having taken a height and not moving further, can calmly hide behind a slope that is opposite to us and accumulate there and we will not even visually observe him.

The second nuance is the anti-tank ditch running in front of the “dragon’s teeth”. The soil dug during its laying is neatly complex on our side in a 2.5 meter embankment, which often simply covers the entire sector of shooting and observation for positions. That is, not only is the enemy’s approach to the moat not covered by barriers, the bottom is not mined, but also the approaches are not covered by the fire of the defenders’ weapons. The enemy will simply focus on the throw distance, and in the absence of cover, they will plant explosives and blow up all engineering barriers.

The third nuance is often weak and not thick enough ceilings on dugouts in one roll of boards (not logs), covered with a thin layer of earth. Such a roll cannot withstand anything larger than 82 mm mines. Civilian builders tried to create comfort, and they succeeded, but they did not think about safety.

The fourth moment is the bottom of the trench, in which there is no drainage ditch, no drainage pits, and in some places there is no floor or cool clothing (we hope this will be eliminated) a very small% of the trench has overlap (which is very important, especially with the use of shells with air gap and quadcopters throwing small IEDs).

And of course, the positions are not disguised in any way, and the grass on the dug-out ground does not sprout during the season. This makes it easier for the enemy to identify our positions and correct them.

Fifth, the lack of good dirt roads along the line for quick access of vehicles and for the convenience of transportation or evacuation (on a KAMAZ truck, the average speed along the line was 35 km/h, on a car about 20 km/h (after rain, even a pickup truck gets stuck in mud ruts) The units occupying the strongholds did not simply make markings in order to quickly navigate day and night, so that the driver, who is driving for the first or second time, quickly brought ammunition and water to the 7th section, which he must quickly find, and not to 3 , from where the personnel will have to drag it to themselves.

In general, we are seeing a huge waste of funds on this line of defense. The involvement of civilian builders and equipment makes it possible to build these structures quickly enough, but the lack of participation in the planning of military engineers and infantrymen, who then hold these positions, leads to the fact that a significant part of these positions does not make sense.

It is extremely unpleasant that the money and resources allocated for this construction often go to waste. Not because of the corruption component (we do not touch on this issue), but simply because of the incompetence and / or impotence of the people who are building it on the ground and are afraid to report to the authorities about the need to postpone construction.
This disregard will cost us dearly.
What does it cost to start digging not in a lowland, but 500 meters further or closer in order to occupy one of the heights? Why don’t they remove the land covering the sectors? Or do they not use it to further strengthen their positions?

If you are afraid to tell the high boss that his beautiful red stripe needs to be moved a couple of centimeters to the side – you are worthless, as a military man and as a person!

Remember, Rusich is rabidly pro-reinvasion and, under agreements signed last December, officially working for the Kremlin in regards to pushing material pertaining to the reinvasion. So if he’s writing that the Russians are screwing up he’s doing so because he wants them to actually perform well.

Mariupol:

A year ago, Russia deliberately dropped a bomb on the Drama Theater in Mariupol. Next to it was the inscription "Children", which was impossible to overlook. Hundreds of people were hiding there. We are working to hold the terrorist state to account for what it has done. pic.twitter.com/iZICS5Q5J0

— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 16, 2023

From the Ukrainian officer who tweets as Tatarigami. Here’s the copy and paste of the full text of his first tweet:

People following me know that I do not downplay or deny losses suffered by our side. Furthermore, I meet criticism for speaking out in public about it. Recently, I came across a Politico article which claimed that 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action (KIA). However, I have reason to doubt the accuracy of this figure. While the intensity of battles has undoubtedly led to an increase in casualties, I am skeptical that the number of KIA is as high as 100,000. It is possible that the journalist has misunderstood the definition of “casualties” and used it interchangeably with “killed”, which is a common mistake.

Politico article I am referring to: https://t.co/Ua8LfbLYww

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) March 16, 2023

Tallyho!

Combat flight of a pilot MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force 🇺🇦😎 pic.twitter.com/ud7DEFXo9A

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 16, 2023

"I am appealing to you to step up efforts to provide the 🇺🇦Air Force with modern multi-purpose fighters of the fourth generation, which are capable of effectively protecting our country from🇷🇺air terrorist strikes."- commander of the Air Force, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk pic.twitter.com/8Ghorffz0z

— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) March 16, 2023

Poland:

Reporting from The Financial Times:

Poland has pledged to send four of its MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine “in coming days”, in what would be the first shipment of combat aircraft marking a significant new level of western military support to Kyiv.

Ukraine has made fighter jets a central demand from western allies since Russia’s full-scale invasion last year, but Nato countries have been reluctant to provide them given the perceived risk of escalation from Moscow in response.

Poland and Slovakia have previously said that they would be prepared to supply Kyiv with some of their Soviet-designed MiG-29 aircraft, but only as part of a “coalition” of western countries, and backed up by pledges from other Nato states to replace those jets.

“In the coming days, we are handing over four aircraft in full working order,” Poland’s president Andrzej Duda said during a news conference with his Czech counterpart, Petr Pavel, adding that an unspecified number of additional jets would be sent later: “The rest are being serviced, prepared and will probably be handed over successively.”

While Ukraine has asked for US-made jets, such as F-16s, allies have pointed out that the country’s pilots are trained to fly MiGs and that flying western aircraft would require months of training. The UK has pledged to train Ukrainian pilots on Nato-standard planes when president Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited London in February.

Ukraine recently received Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range precision guided bombs, or JDAM-ERs, according to people familiar with the matter. The kits, provided by the US, can be bolted on unguided bombs, giving them a range of up to 45 miles.

The long-range munitions, which US military officials said recently arrived in Ukraine, make fixed-wing aircraft more useful on the battlefield, people familiar with the matter said, adding that the JDAM-ERs are being used on Ukraine’s existing MiG-29s, and could be used by the Polish jets if sent.

Warsaw has 28 MiG-29s in its air force and plans to phase them out with future deliveries of US F-35s and South Korean FA-50s. Slovakia has about a dozen MiG-29s. Other Nato country air forces with the aircraft include Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania.

Poland first attempted to send jets to Ukraine a year ago but the plan fell apart after it was clear that Washington did not support the move.

In addition to the training of pilots, western officials have cautioned that Nato-compatible aircraft requires additional refuelling, servicing and armament capabilities that would also need to be sent.

The UK has previously suggested it is willing to send some RAF Typhoons and personnel to Poland and other Nato countries on the eastern flank to backfill any contributions made to Ukraine’s fleet of fighter jets — a point made most recently by James Heappey, the junior defence minister, at a parliamentary hearing last week.

✈️ ✈️ ✈️ ✈️ https://t.co/8NyYfRFP7M

— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) March 16, 2023

Lithuania:

Lithuania's new military support package for Ukraine includes 155 mm ammunition, vehicles and military rations. The total value of the military support provided by 🇱🇹 to 🇺🇦 will soon reach 450 million euros.

— Arvydas Anušauskas (@a_anusauskas) March 16, 2023

The European Council/Brussels:

EU's energy trade deficit jumped from 1.7% in 2021 to 4% of our GDP in 2022. While the US surplus increased threefold.

The economic consequences of the war force us to tackle the right questions about our competitiveness.

At #EUCO we will focus on long-term action to boost it. pic.twitter.com/Nsm5zIf2sm

— Charles Michel (@CharlesMichel) March 15, 2023

The EU cannot be the playground of others’ decisions. We want to build a powerful 🇪🇺 in which we are the masters of our destiny.

By strengthening our economy, defence and security, we choose to build an EU of peace and prosperity for the future of our children. #EPlenary pic.twitter.com/ihv04PtbA1

— Charles Michel (@CharlesMichel) March 15, 2023

Ottawa:

At the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, I announced a new package of Canadian military aid to Ukraine.

✳️ First, we will donate approximately 8,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition, as well as 12 air defence missiles to sustain the air defence systems currently deployed in Ukraine.

— Anita Anand (@AnitaAnandMP) March 15, 2023

✳️ Finally, I am happy to share that the @CanadianForces have started the shipments of the additional Leopard 2 main battle tanks pledged by Canada at the end of February.

Canada stands with Ukraine in its fight for freedom and democracy. 🇨🇦🇺🇦

— Anita Anand (@AnitaAnandMP) March 15, 2023

From the Canadian Department of National Defence:

Defence Minister Anita Anand announces additional military donations to Ukraine at Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting 

News release

March 15, 2023 – Ottawa, Ontario – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces

Today, Defence Minister Anita Anand participated virtually in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting hosted by United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, where she announced additional military assistance to Ukraine.

At the meeting, the Minister announced that Canada will donate approximately 8,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition, as well as 12 air defence missiles sourced from Canadian Armed Forces’ (CAF) inventory, to sustain the air defence systems currently deployed in Ukraine. Canada will also donate more than 1,800 rounds of 105mm tank training ammunition. This ammunition will support the donation of Leopard 1 tanks announced by Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands.

Defence Minister Anita Anand also confirmed that the CAF started the shipments of the additional Leopard 2 main battle tanks pledged by Canada at the end of February. Canada has committed eight Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine in total, four of which have already been delivered to Poland with a team of CAF personnel training Ukrainian soldiers on their use. All eight Leopard 2 main battle tanks, as well as the previously announced armoured recovery vehicle, ancillary equipment, and ammunition donated by Canada, are expected to be in Ukraine in the coming weeks.

Since February 2022, Canada has committed over $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine. We continue to work closely alongside our Allies and international partners to provide and coordinate comprehensive military support for Ukraine as it fights for its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.

Quotes

“Canada stands firm with Ukraine in the fight against Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable war. We are strengthening our collaboration with our Allies and partners and are continuing to respond to Ukraine’s military needs with comprehensive military aid. We will continue to do whatever it takes to safeguard freedom, democracy, and the rules-based international order.”

The Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of National Defence

Quick facts

  • The Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) was created by the United States Secretary of Defense in April 2022 to provide a strategic mechanism to identify critical equipment needs and gaps for Ukraine, allow Allies and partners to synchronize donations, consult and coordinate assistance to Ukraine, and build the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Convening monthly at the ministerial level, the UDCG now brings together over 40 countries. This was its tenth meeting.
  • Since the beginning of 2022, Canada has committed over $5 billion in direct financial, military, humanitarian, and other assistance to Ukraine.
  • Since February 2022, Canada has committed over $1 billion in military assistance donations to Ukraine. This includes over 200 Senator commercial pattern armoured vehicles, a National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) with associated munitions, 39 armoured combat support vehicles, anti-tank weapons, small arms, M777 Howitzers and associated ammunition, high-resolution drone cameras, and more.
  • Since late March 2022, the CAF has been assisting with the delivery of military aid for Ukraine within Europe from Canada and on behalf of our Allies and partners, transporting over 7.5 million pounds of military donations to date.
  • CAF personnel are currently deployed to both the United Kingdom and Poland to assist with the training of members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine under Operation UNIFIER, Canada’s military training and capacity building mission in support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
  • Since the start of Operation UNIFIER in 2015, the CAF has trained over 35,000 members of the Security Forces of Ukraine in battlefield tactics and advanced military skills.

Rostov on Don:

Rostov-on-Don. A surveillance camera recorded the explosion and the beginning of the fire at the headquarters of the Regional Board of Border Troops of the FSB. pic.twitter.com/vHaKaPB1JY

— Belsat in English (@Belsat_Eng) March 16, 2023

A fire broke out in the Russian city Rostov on Don. There is the claim that it is the local FSB office.

Ups…#Rostov #Russia pic.twitter.com/CMToifc6aq

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) March 16, 2023

Here’s the video released by the DOD of the SU-27 colliding with the MQ-9 Reaper:

Here's the video from the source https://t.co/QdOtTNWk5k

— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins) March 16, 2023

Reuters takes a deep dive into the Wagner mercenaries. Here’s some excerpts:

Reuters tracked down and interviewed five Russian prisoners who fought in Ukraine in return for freedom. They gave the most detailed insider account yet of Wagner’s convict army.

In October last year, a Russian news site published a short video of Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary army, sitting with four men on a rooftop terrace in the resort town of Gelendzhik, on Russia’s Black Sea coast. Two are missing parts of a leg. A third has lost an arm. They are identified as pardoned former convicts, returned from the front in Ukraine after joining Wagner from prison.

“You were an offender, now you’re a war hero,” Prigozhin tells one man in the clip. It was the first video to depict the return of some of the thousands of convicts who joined Wagner in return for the promise of a pardon if they survived six months of war.

Reuters used facial recognition software to examine this video and more than a dozen other videos and photographs of homecoming convict fighters, published between October 2022 and February 2023. Reporters were able to identify more than 30 of the men by cross-checking the images with social media and Russian court documents.

In their ranks are murderers, thieves and a self-declared “Satanist.” Several are in hospital recovering from wounds sustained in the fighting. Reuters managed to make contact with 11 of these men. Five agreed to be interviewed by phone and messaging app. What follows is the most detailed insider account yet of Wagner’s convict army: the fighters’ recruitment and training, the combat they saw in Ukraine, and their uncertain future in a Russia turned upside down by war with its neighbour.

Four of the men said they were personally recruited by Yevgeny Prigozhin as he toured Russia’s prison system to bolster his private army. Some of the men were deployed to Ukraine’s eastern Bakhmut region, site of some of the most intense fighting of the one-year-old conflict, where one man described the “utter hell” of the battlefield. Thousands have been killed on both sides. The battle for the city of Bakhmut now hangs in the balance. A former Wagner commander who fled to Norway in January has said he witnessed members of Wagner’s internal security administering brutal treatment to prisoner recruits, including executions for desertion.

Combat training, some conducted by veterans of Russia’s special forces, was short but intensive, according to the men. Ukrainian and Western officials say Wagner is sending poorly prepared fighters to certain death in eastern Ukraine. Mike Kofman, an expert in the Russian military at the Arlington County, Virginia-based CNA think tank, told Reuters the two to three weeks of training received by the convict recruits would be unlikely to bring them up to speed, even if some of the men had prior military experience.

“It takes time to learn combat basics, receive individual training, and you also need some collective training as a unit on top of it – a couple of weeks alone isn’t going to do that much for you,” Kofman told Reuters. A more rigorous training scheme would last several months.

All five ex-prisoners expressed a fierce loyalty to Prigozhin for giving them a second chance at life. Though Reuters could not independently confirm the men’s accounts of their service, many of the details were consistent with one another. Russia’s Defence Ministry and penal service did not respond to detailed questions for this article, nor did Prigozhin and Wagner. In a brief emailed statement, Prigozhin dismissed Reuters’ questions as “crazy.” He has previously described Wagner as “probably the most experienced army that exists in the world today” and said its casualty rate is comparable with other Russian units.

Now free years ahead of schedule, whether at home or facing long periods of treatment and rehabilitation, the surviving fighters are returning to a country where their actions on the frontline are lionised by many. Prigozhin has previously said that he is giving convicts who join Wagner a “second chance” at life, and an opportunity to redeem themselves.

Earlier this month the State Duma passed a law making it a crime to “discredit” Wagner fighters. The law, which previously applied more narrowly to Russia’s armed forces, was extended at Prigozhin’s request.

Prigozhin’s growing power has not been greeted warmly by all sections of the Russian elite. In February, a long-running feud between the Wagner leader and Russia’s military chiefs exploded into open hostility. Prigozhin accused Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov of “treason,” saying they were starving Wagner of munitions out of personal animosity towards him. Shoigu and Gerasimov could not immediately be reached for comment. Earlier the same month, Prigozhin said he had ended Wagner’s recruitment of prisoners, hinting in an interview that he was forced to do so by unnamed officials.

The five fighters interviewed by Reuters felt a deep personal gratitude to Prigozhin for recruiting them and wiping their criminal records.

“We’re better than ordinary citizens,” said Yastrebov, the car thief, now at home in his native St Petersburg. “We are not ex-convicts now, thanks to Wagner.”

In a January video, Prigozhin is shown telling injured convict fighters: “The police must treat you with respect. Everything has already been agreed at various levels, so that there is no nit-picking… If necessary, I myself will call and talk to the governors and so on, and we will find a solution.”

For Kuzhelev, who as of February had been in a Krasnodar region hospital for four months, Prigozhin had given him a new lease on life. Court documents show he spent almost seven of his 29 years in prison for six separate convictions. “The last time I was sent to prison, I was thinking: ‘Well, here I am again, what’s next?’” he said. “I’ll serve a year, another, a third, and then what? I’ll go out, and what am I going to do on the outside? What am I going to do with myself, given my background?”

“Well, now I’m clean. I have some money. I can think about the future. Think about getting a mortgage to buy an apartment … I have all this thanks to our esteemed Yevgeny Viktorovich,” Kuzhelev added, using Prigozhin’s patronymic as a sign of respect.

All five of the men who spoke to Reuters said either that they would remain with Wagner after their six month service, or were seriously considering doing so.

Some said they wanted to get back to the frontlines as soon as they were able to. Nikita Lyubimov, a native of the Volga city of Cheboksary who had been serving a four and a half year sentence for grievous bodily harm, said his first priority was “to support the lads, to recover as soon as possible, and get back to the front line”. The 23-year-old had received a shrapnel wound two months into his initial stint in Ukraine, and was invalided out.

The men said that the able-bodied among them were offered the chance to sign on as professional full-time mercenaries, while the injured were offered supporting roles. Borovkov, who is getting a prosthetic arm after amputation, said that he had been offered a job at a Wagner hospital in Luhansk when he recovers.

Yermakov said he hoped to recover sufficiently to re-enroll as a contract mercenary, and hoped to be deployed in future to Libya, Syria or the Central African Republic, where Wagner operations predate the group’s present campaign in Ukraine. He cited limited prospects available in Russia’s civilian economy as pushing him towards returning to Wagner.

“People work hard without days off for 12-14 hours a day, and at best they earn 50-60,000 roubles ($672-$806) a month,” said Yermakov, who told Reuters he has two small daughters. “I will return to the (Wagner) company and I will definitely be able to earn 150,000 roubles ($2,000) a month.”

For others, a return to Wagner offers an alternative to sinking back into a life of crime. Kuzhelev, who has spent almost seven of his 29 years in prison, told Reuters that he hoped that service in Wagner would enable his young daughter to build a career in future, without the stigma of her father’s criminal past.

“My daughter, when she grows up, can go on to study banking, or attend the police academy,” said Kuzhelev. “And she will not have problems because her father was in prison. Isn’t that motivation? Of course it is.”

Much more at the link!

Also, obligatory:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok! Which is the trailer for the full new episode of Patron’s official cartoon I posted last night.

@patron__dsns

Нова серія про викрадення Тома вже на моєму YouTube! Лінк у шапці профілю❤️ #песпатрон

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

The new episode about Tom’s kidnapping is already on my YouTube! Link in the profile header ❤️ #песпатрон

And in case you missed it last night, and if you did SHAME ON YOU!!!!!, here’s the new episode of Patron’s official cartoon from Patron’s official YouTube channel:

Open thread!

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