I wanted to look at the average purchased actuarial value on the Exchange in 2015. My expectation going into the data dive was that the average purchased value would be significantly below the target threshold. My thought was that all else being equal, a plan with a lower actuarial value will have both a lower absolute premium and a lower net of of subsidy premium. I thought that the marginal buyer on the Exchange is primarily price sensitive so that they would buy the lowest priced product within a metal band all else being equal.
I got surprised. This is not what I saw in the data for 2015.
Average Bronze was a smidgen above the target. Silver, Gold and Platinum were within one point of the target. I had expected to see average purchased AV with a one’s digit of eight not nine.