There’s a lot going on tonight.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Ukrainians!
From now on, every year on September 7, Ukraine will celebrate Military Intelligence Day – a professional holiday of people whose contribution to our defense and future victory cannot be overestimated. Previously, we did not have such a holiday specifically at the state level, although military intelligence officers usually received congratulations on this day. I signed a decree that brings this day to a proper level.
In the morning, I congratulated our intelligence officers, thanked them for their service, thanked Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, for the results Ukraine needs. Presented state awards to the best intelligence officers. And I believe that I will repeatedly award representatives of the intelligence community of Ukraine for their achievements, for operations that continue constantly, and for successes that help our Armed Forces and the entire state move towards the liberation of our entire land.
This week we have good news from the Kharkiv region. Probably, you all have already seen reports about the activity of Ukrainian defenders. And I think every citizen feels proud of our warriors. It is a well-deserved pride, a right feeling.
Now is not the time to name the settlements to which the Ukrainian flag returns. But it’s time to say thank you to the 25th airborne brigade, the 92nd separate mechanized brigade and the 80th airborne assault brigade for their bravery and heroism shown during combat missions.
I also express gratitude today to the 406th separate artillery brigade for the extremely successful hits in the areas where the occupiers are concentrated in the south of our country and to the 60th separate infantry brigade, which consistently advances our positions.
Each success of our military in one direction or another changes the general situation along the entire frontline in favor of Ukraine. The more difficult it is for the occupiers, the more losses they have, the better the positions of our defenders in Donbas will be, the more reliable the defense of Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and the cities of the Dnipropetrovsk region will be, the faster we will be able to liberate the Azov region and the entire south.
I want to say one more thing today – it is very important and very sensitive. This applies to Ukrainians held captive by the occupiers. At the level of Ukrainian intelligence and other involved structures and people, we are constantly trying to achieve the liberation of our prisoners of war. This work never stopped. And the active actions of our defenders also mean the possibility of capturing a sufficient number of enemies to encourage the exchange and release of Ukrainian prisoners of war.
I emphasize: we remember all our people held captive by the occupiers.
An important decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine was made today. Sanctions have been applied to 606 individuals who belong to the ruling elite of Russia.
28 members of the Security Council of Russia, 154 members of the Federation Council of Russia, 424 deputies of the State Duma of Russia. They are all responsible for this war, for the terror against our people. And none of them will avoid responsibility – it’s only a matter of time. We have already taken some of the necessary legal, diplomatic and political steps for this responsibility for them. We also take all other steps deliberately.
Today, an important operation was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine – regarding the activities of some persons subject to sanctions on the territory of our country. I have repeatedly emphasized: there will be no place for smugglers and criminal networks in Ukraine. It seems that some of them did not understand. Well, they will understand.
The customs officials who helped the smugglers, including the leadership, have been removed from office and will receive a legal response for all their illegal actions.
As for those persons subject to sanctions, who also have foreign citizenship, in particular Russian and Romanian, based on the proposal of the Security Service of Ukraine and in accordance with the norms of the current legislation, I made a decision to terminate the Ukrainian citizenship of these persons.
I’ve held a meeting with the head of the government, the minister of finance, the relevant deputy head of the Office regarding the draft budget for the next year. It is clear that this will be the budget of a warring country. Government officials will present the parameters of the project, but I will now mention some important points – politically important points.
First. More than a trillion hryvnias will be allocated to the security and defense sector next year. That will be priority number one.
Second. Social obligations must be provided in full. In particular, I want Ukrainian pensioners to hear me: next year, as well as this year, the government is tasked with indexing pensions for all our pensioners.
Third. To withstand this period and ensure financial and social stability, it is necessary to reduce as much as possible all non-critical expenses of the state, all that does not help defense, does not help the economic development of the country, social and cultural provision of our people. Accordingly, the government should present a program to reduce expenditures on the state enterprises, on the apparatus, on the institutions that do not meet the needs of this special time. I am waiting for proposals from government officials.
Fourth. This is the intensification of economic relations. The lending program “5-7-9%” is maintained. There will also be other programs and solutions that should help businesses work, save jobs and attract new employees.
And fifth. A special recovery fund will be established, which will be filled, in particular, at the expense of confiscated Russian assets.
I expect that the draft budget will be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on time, as required by law.
I spoke today with German Chancellor Scholz. Many topics: the responsibility of the terrorist state, the further strengthening of the defense capabilities of Ukraine, and the financial support for our state.
I thanked Mr. Chancellor for confirming the €5 billion macro-financial aid from the European Union. This is an important decision. A decision that will enable us to support Ukrainians and provide social payments for our people. I also thank the European Commission and all our partners in the EU for this financial package. The provision of another three billion euros is being discussed, we are waiting for the format of the decision.
The implementation of the grain export initiative, which is an important tool for our economy and for all partners of our state, continues. Ukrainian food was exported to three continents. To Africa, Asia and Europe. In detail, 54 vessels have already been sent to Asia, 16 vessels have already been sent to Africa, 32 vessels have already been sent to Europe, and part of this volume, by the way, is again sent to Asian and African countries afterwards.
Today Russia voiced another blatantly false statement that the absolute majority of Ukrainian grain is allegedly exported to European countries. Well, words of truth have not been heard at the official level in Russia for a long time, and this does not surprise anyone.
By the end of this month, at least 3 million tons of agricultural products can be exported from our seaports. And a significant part is for the poorest and most needy countries. In particular, the first cargo was delivered to Ethiopia. The route was not easy: first by sea, then by trucks. But hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians are actually saved from starvation.
Perhaps Russia is not OK with this and does not want to notice it. However, this is exactly what the world needs. It is necessary to save countries on different continents from chaos, it is necessary to save people from starvation.
Unlike Russia, we do not make a racist division of the world into those who deserve security and those who supposedly do not, into those who deserve to live without famine and those who supposedly do not. We support all people, all countries. Both those who help us and those who still refrain from helping us. Both those that are more stable and those that are less stable. I emphasize once again: Ukraine was, is and will be the guarantor of world food security.
I am thankful to everyone who defends our country!
I am thankful to each of our partners who help us fight for freedom!
Glory to Ukraine!
The Ukrainian MOD did not post an operational update today.
Here is the British MOD’s assessment for today:
And here is their map for today:
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the battler for Kherson:
KHERSON /1415 UTC 7 SEP/ UKR Air force is reported to have carried out 27 close air support missions against RU concentrations and HQ elements. Overhead imagery indicates that the road bridge at Nova Kakhovka has been severed. VDV reported defeated in Inhulets pocket. pic.twitter.com/7sGlrcxFT3
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 7, 2022
So there’s mixed reporting coming out of Kherson. Or, rather, what little reporting is coming out is mixed. The Washington Post published reporting focusing on the Ukrainian wounded from the battle for Kherson:
“They used everything on us,” said Denys, a 33-year-old Ukrainian soldier whose unit fell back from a Russian-held village after a lengthy barrage of cluster bombs, phosphorous munitions and mortars. “Who can survive an attack for five hours like that?” he said.
Denys and eight other Ukrainian soldiers from seven different units provided rare descriptions of the Kherson counteroffensive in the south, the most ambitious military operation by Kyiv since the expulsion of Russian forces at the perimeter of the capital in the spring. As in the battle for Kyiv, Ukraine’s success is hardly assured and the soldiers’ accounts signaled that a long fight, and many more casualties, lie ahead.
“We lost five people for every one they did,” said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.
Ihor had no military experience before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. He made a living selling animal feed to pig and cow farms. His replacement as platoon commander also has no previous military experience, he said.
The soldiers were interviewed on gurneys and in wheelchairs as they recovered from injuries sustained in the offensive. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid disciplinary action. Others, like Denys and Ihor, agreed to reveal only their first names. But most spoke plainly about the disadvantages they faced.
Russia’s Orlan drones exposed Ukrainian positions from more than a kilometer above their heads, they said, an altitude that meant they never heard the buzz of the aircraft tracking their movements.
Russian tanks emerged from newly built cement fortifications to blast infantry with large-caliber artillery, the wounded Ukrainian soldiers said. The vehicles would then shrink back beneath the concrete shelters, shielded from mortar and rocket fire.
Counter-battery radar systems automatically detected and located Ukrainians who were targeting the Russians with projectiles, unleashing a barrage of artillery fire in response.
Russian hacking tools hijacked the drones of Ukrainian operators, who saw their aircraft drift away helplessly behind enemy lines.
Ukraine has discouraged coverage of the offensive, resulting in an information lag on a potentially pivotal inflection point in the nearly seven-month conflict.
When Ihor fired on Russian soldiers with his Kalashnikov rifle this week, he said, it was his first time shooting at a human being. “You don’t think about anything,” he said. “You understand, if you don’t do it, they will do it.”
Despite the challenges, Ihor said he is eager to return to the front line as soon as he heals. “My people are there. How can I leave them?” he said.
Other soldiers won’t be returning to the battlefield.
Oleksandr, a 28-year-old former construction worker, lost his arm in a mortar blast during the counteroffensive last week. He winced with phantom pain in his hospital bed on Sunday, saying he felt a sting from the fingers and hand that were no longer connected to his body.
Oleksandr said the Russian artillery fire was relentless. “They were just hitting us all the time,” he said. “If we fire three mortars, they fire 20 in return.”
The Ukrainian soldiers said they had to carefully ration their use of munitions but even when they did fire, they had trouble hitting targets. “When you give the coordinates, it’s supposed to be accurate, but it’s not,” he said, noting that his equipment dated back to 1989.
Oleksandr had never traveled to Kherson before the war, but he said the goal of expelling Russian invaders was worth sacrificing a limb. “It’s our country,” he said.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine’s forces retook two villages in the Kherson region, and one of his aides posted an image of the Ukrainian flag being hoisted over the village of Vysokopillya over the weekend.
“Ukrainian flags are returning to the places where they should be,” Zelensky said in a video address. But it was impossible to gauge what progress Ukrainian forces have made in their push to expel the Russian invaders from Kherson.
The region, which was captured by Russia earlier in the war, forms a crucial part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s coveted “land bridge” to Crimea, the peninsula that Russia invaded and annexed in violation of international law in 2014.
However bloody the fight, the Ukrainian soldiers said they saw no alternative.
“If we don’t stop them, they’re going to just rape and murder our people like they did everywhere else,” said Oleksandr’s roommate in the hospital, a 49-year-old conscripted soldier who asked to be called by his nickname, “Pinochet.”
Much, much more at the link!
Balakliya:
Ukraine’s military is having significant progress at Balakliya.
The offensive action is already threatening to cut off Russian GLOCs leading to Izium, the key Russian-held point of pressure upon northern Donbas.
Tucker Carlson remains a master war expert. pic.twitter.com/EjbU3h36gR— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 7, 2022
Outskirts of Balakleya, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 artillery destroying what looks like 🇷🇺 S-300 missiles. pic.twitter.com/qT39F0VO5J
— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) September 7, 2022
Russian Aleksandr Kots confirmed much more sophisticated plans of Ukrainians to cut off the Izyum group; Balakliya not important to be taken at all costs; blames Ministry of Defence for hiding the bad news. pic.twitter.com/yM0roTgVbO
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 7, 2022
Kotenok adds this move creates a threat for the group of Russian forces in the Donbas as paths to both Izyum and the rear of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk Russian group will open with Russian defeat at Balakliya. pic.twitter.com/XD7Yt12Zmq
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 7, 2022
Wagner GREY ZONE – "do not expect good news today"
Recaps Ukrainian advance in Balakleya, mentions several downed Russian aircraft including an Su-25 and two helicopters. pic.twitter.com/w3pKAxvspp
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 7, 2022
Russian Starshe Eddy: "In Balakleya, Ukrainian command completely outplayed our command. Izyum is getting ready for a fight". pic.twitter.com/eMEhVEdDzI
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 7, 2022
Nova Husarivka:
📽️Ukrainian soldiers taking down Soviet Victory flag in Nova Husarivka, #Kharkiv Oblast. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/2uXm2jGhVs
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) September 7, 2022
Here’s an interesting thread about the battles in and for Kherson and Kharkiv:
1.The presence & quick deployment of operational reserves (including air power) by the defender along the attacker's vulnerable flanks can lead to a halt/collapse of the offensive & limits its overall impact.
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) September 7, 2022
3.The use of operational reserves by the attacker is equally important. Without follow-on forces that can be thrown into the fight, any offensive is in danger of sooner or later stalling given that breakthroughs in the front can neither be adequately exploited nor gains defended.
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) September 7, 2022
So a key question for both sides will be the geographical disposition & availability of operational reserves, or to pose Winston Churchill's question from May 1940,“Where is the strategic reserve?” (Or in his appallingly bad French, “Où est la masse de manoeuvre?”)
— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) September 7, 2022
There’s a lot of fighting to come in Kherson, Kharkiv, and, if the push through Kharkiv is successful, Donbas. There’s not a lot of clear reporting coming out of Kherson and, by comparison, a flood of info coming out of Kharkiv. So take deep breaths and expect that what might be reported in the morning may no longer be operable in the afternoon or evening. So pace yourselves.
The details of another Russian war crime begin to emerge:
I express my deepest condolences to relatives and close ones of Paul Urie. He was a brave man who dedicated himself to saving people. Ukraine will never forget him and his deeds. We will identify perpetrators of this crime and hold them to account. They won’t escape justice 2/2
— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) September 7, 2022
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron:
Well, I'm back in black 🎸 pic.twitter.com/5O0JRq34Vi
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 7, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns
The caption is:
Open thread!
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
I know I’ll probably be disagreed with, but I was…I will say, disappointed that the Biden admin has put a firm no on designating russia as a state sponsor of terror. Yes, I read their justifications. I still do not like it. Because what other name can one possibly give to what russia has done, continues to do? And you’ve got putin out there being like “LOL we haven’t lost anything or anyone” — which is probably easy for him to lie about since it’s not like he gives a single shit about even his own people. He is a terrorist, and so is the country. But alas. Maybe this is why I am not president.
Seeing that photo of Patron really drives home just what an excellent likeness the little crocheted one I bought is–the creator did a fantastic job, and he is a nice little friend to have here.
Thank you as always, Adam. Hope you are well.
Gin & Tonic
I’m seeing a possible transliteration problem in the tweets from Dmitri. There are two towns in Ukraine with similar names in different locations. Балаклія (I’d transliterate it as Balakliya) is in Kharkiv Oblast, near Izyum. Балаклея (I’d transliterate it as Balakleya) is on the west side of the Dnipro, in Cherkasy Oblast. The fighting seems to be taking place in Kharkiv Oblast.
tybee
@Alison Rose 💙🌻💛:
I do not disagree with you.
Gin & Tonic
Things are going “boom” in Belgorod.
bluejersey43 (fka texasboyshaun)
Is it just me or does that HIMARS look like Twoey from Little Shop of Horrors?
“Feed me, Vova, feed me…”
Sister Golden Bear
@Gin & Tonic: Ivanova was wrong. “Boom today.”
Another Scott
Meanwhile, … WH.gov:
???
It’s a small world, but this seems very weird. Why would Iran be interested in Albania??
Ah, Wikipedia:
Everything’s connected – even more than we suspect, maybe.
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose 💙🌻💛
@Gin & Tonic: Well that was very pretty.
Martin
The accounting of Russian losses in the last week is pretty significant. I know Ukraine is under-equipped, but Russia can’t keep this going forever, and they aren’t making any headway anywhere.
Chetan Murthy
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/09/racial-and-ethnic-bigotry-all-too-real.html
Jay
@Martin:
somebody on I think twitter, posted an account of payments by the Russian Ministry of Finance, to the families of those killed in Ukraine, divided the numbers by the “compensation package”, to come up with a number just over 48,000,
dmsilev
@Jay: How many of those payments are to the families of actual dead soldiers, vs. payments to people who have ‘dead sons’ that never actually existed except as forged entries in some ledger?
kalakal
@Gin & Tonic: Just a blown fuse according to Pravda
kalakal
seem to have found the auto repeat function apologies
Chetan Murthy
Content warning: injured and possibly dying Russian soldiers on a pontoon ferry that got hit but good. DO NOT look at it if you’re squeamish at all, please. And also, I’m not posting the actual vid link; rather, it’s the last tweet in the article. Again, content warning, please be forewarned.
I’ll admit to this: it’s a coarsening of the spirit: more and more, I don’t mind seeing Russian soldiers in pain, near death, even dead. I just don’t mind it at all. Sure, it’s partially for Ukraine. But it’s also for us, for our country. I want Russia taken down to the studs, b/c it will take pressure off our Republic.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/7/2121408/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-rushes-toward-Kupiansk-Russia-s-logistical-hub?pm_campaign=blog&pm_medium=rss&pm_source=main
trollhattan
@kalakal: Still working on circuit-breaker technology.
Martin
@trollhattan: I’ve been near a substation when it did that during an ice storm. It’s attention-grabbing.
Martin
Kudos to Californians for again conserving enough to avoid blackouts.
The state has only had blackouts due to lack of generation one day since the Enron shenanigans back in 2000. I know there’s this right-wing propaganda that it happens all the time here, but most rolling blackouts have been due to wind/fire events to decharge power lines that were at high risk of being downed – not lack of generation.
Texas has had at least 3x as many blackout days due to generation than CA has and has had to ask their residents to conserve as recently as July. TX generates about ⅔ more power than CA does, despite having 10 million fewer people and lower GDP per capita.
When the emergency text went out yesterday due to the EEA 3 state, Californians cut power use by 1.2GW within 5 minutes. That’s almost enough to power Rhode Island.
Carlo Graziani
The thread on operational reserves is of general interest, but (in my opinion) has very limited applicability to the actual counteroffensive campaign in progress in the south, and none at all in the east.
Such reserves matters in two situations: One is when an attacker is attempting to produce a breakthrough for exploitation, using front-line engagements to locate a weak point that can be opened up, so that the reserve can pour through and exploit. This is the famous “breakout” scenario that Bradley accomplished at St. Lo, and that Soviet army doctrine called for in the event of war breaking out with NATO. The other situation is when a defending army is holding an extended line and needs a “fire brigade” to help out when a part of the line is overwhelmed. Gady’s Churchill quote refers to a famous lapse in this regard.
In the southern campaign, however, it seems likely that the Ukrainians are not in fact attempting a breakthrough. Rather, they are keeping up the combat operational tempo as high as possible so as to snap off the Russian logistical train west of the Dnipro, having dropped the bridges across the river and targeted any resupply mission of consequence. An operational reserve does not seem to be the correct concept for the Ukrainians to employ for this sort of campaign design. A phasing of geographic force efforts and fires to maximize Russian materiel burn rate seems more efficient to me, and I imagine was at least gamed in the run-up to the campaign. I know that US DOD planners helped them look at a few scenarios, according to reports from last week.
So far as what’s going on in the Donbas/Kharkhiv area, I think that, as Geminid put it in the yesterday’s thread, it’s “battlefield shaping” more than “campaigning”. It’s going to be mud season in a month or so, and everything is going to settle into slow-moving lines. The Ukrainians have an interior line advantage, and good intelligence can allow them opportunities for rapid exploitation at low cost. Small investments in shoving contact lines across awkward (for the Russians) boundaries now can pay big dividends for months, if they should cut logistically essential roads and railways. There happen to be a few places in the Donbas where the Russians have neglected to leave strongly held positions in their hurry to reinforce the south, and while these would be minor, correctable errors in August they are calamitous mistakes in September. For exploiting these sort of opportunities, it seems to me that the “operational reserve” concept is unhelpful.
Damien
@Chetan Murthy: That’s graphic?? What part? The fascist’s boots sliding around or when the guy filming kept saying “‘merp” like he’s Archer after a flash bang?
I try to keep in mind that these are people, just everyday joes doing what they’re told. But then I think about how a lot of the Nazi war machine was probably the same way, and I will gladly bask in the pain of any Nazi anywhere because they stand and put work into achieving evil ends.
Same deal here, blow up every single Russian soldier and put it on YouTube to dance music for all I care, until the invaders leave Ukrainian soil they have forsaken their right to live.
Grey Michael
Thank you for putting this together,Adam 👍
I’ve been waiting since the spring(as many people were) for the rumor of a summer offensive to prove true.
The fact that there’s two fronts, is a welcome surprise. The faster Ukrainians are freed from Russia-world the better.
Adam, is there a recent precedent for the thousands of people Russia kidnapped? I’ve never heard of a state doing such a thing since Hitler or Stalin. What are the chances the kidnapped Ukrainian citizens will be returned?
Omnes Omnibus
A Twitter thread on why the Excalibur 155 round may end up a bigger deal than HIMARS. This is amazing shit. Accurate conventional artillery rounds can hit big houses from 20 miles away most of the time. This can hit a parked car at that distance.
Mag
WaPo: Ukraine military chief says ‘limited’ nuclear war cannot be ruled out
Not something I wanted to read tonight.
Grey Michael
@Chetan Murthy: Hey Chetan, I’ve seen similar sentiments expressed by many, you’re far from alone in these feelings I think. So, while I’m replying to your comment, I want to say something in general to those who feel as you do.
Imo, we can wish Ukraine well in their fight against Russia without reveling in what it takes to achieve victory. Russia, Putin and his enablers if you like, they are our opponents not our teachers. I’d like to think we can oppose them wherever they cause problems and keep our humanity intact.
Make no mistake, we’re in Cold War 2.0, this will be a long fight; if we start to hate people at this stage, what will we be like by the end?
Spadizzly
@Gin & Tonic: Just guessing that “kotenok” was translating Балаклія as “Балаклея” (at one point he typed “Бакалея” instead), as they are wont to do, and that’s what Dimitri was transliterating. Just my 2 UAH…
Omnes Omnibus
@Grey Michael: Thank you.
Chetan Murthy
@Damien: Different people have different reactions, and I wanted to make sure to err on the side of caution. In any case, I’m with you, and even more extreme, b/c the destruction of RU AF, the destruction of the Russian state, is the salvation of our Republic.
I have very selfish reasons for wanting them all destroyed, along with my slightly-altruistic motive of wanting the Ukrainian people to regain their entire nation.
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: Always the tube fan, eh?
So the HIMARS limitation is the missiles, not the launchers. Is it different with these Excalibur rounds? Can they be handed out like party favors, or are they another supply-chain proctological affliction?
Chetan Murthy
@Grey Michael: Putin and Russia attacked our country, decapitated our Executive Branch, and came close to reinstalling their puppet in 2020. That’s not an “opponent”: that’s a *sworn enemy*.
Every dead Russian soldier is an increased chance that Russia falls apart and stops trying to destroy my country.
And I’ll note that if RU succeeds in destroying my country, there’ll be a whole lotta dead Americans all over our country. All. Over.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: that thread notes that UA have (what?) 200 155mm tube artillery pieces, but only 16 HIMARS pieces. This gives UA the ability to put Excalibur rounds on a vastly larger terrain than HIMARS simply b/c the “launchers” are more numerous.
Omnes Omnibus
@Carlo Graziani: Even complicated rounds like these are faster and cheaper to make than rockets. And, yes, guns are the shit.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: It seems to be old technology for the USA. Wikipedia:
(Emphasis added.)
VVP really should quit and leave Ukraine while he has an army left. I guess he’s going to insist on learning the hard way…
Cheers,
Scott.
Spadizzly
@Chetan Murthy:
Right there with you. I’ve been there since at least 2014; even more so today, and I say that as someone who’s spoke ru for most of my life, and I’m 71. My wife and I were together for 3 years before she began to speak English and when our kids were very young, she would speak to them in her native tongue, and it was the most natural thing in the world.
putin and his fascist thugs blew all that up, to the extent that my wife and I won’t speak it (to each other) in public, and I tend to answer in Ukrainian. To say it’s complicated is an understatement, but when you see the invaders suffering, remember what they did in Kyiv, Irpin, Bucha, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol, Lviv, Odesa,…
Omnes Omnibus
@Another Scott: Yes, it isn’t new technology, but it will be new to that conflict and could be a difference maker.
Chetan Murthy
@Spadizzly: And I also think about what those same invaders will do thru their MAGAt proxies, in cities all over our country, if given a chance.
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: @Chetan Murthy: But the issue that I’m asking about (seriously) is what is the cost of fitting the Excalibur GPS target guidance gear to a 155mm shell, and are the kits produced in abundance or are they scarce?
Despite the apparent scarcity of HIMARS launchers, 16 is actually too many given the scarcity of available M-31 missiles, believe it or not. Their firing rate would allow them to shoot off the entire US 5-year production schedule in a few months, according to Gen. Hertling.
cain
@Mag: If they did that – the damage to our globe will be incalculable. They would have fucked all of us. Putin is a madman if he even thinks of considering this option.
cain
@Mag: If they did that – the damage to our globe will be incalculable. They would have fucked all of us. Putin is a madman if he even thinks of considering this option.
Spadizzly
@Grey Michael:
With all respect, if I came off as bloodthirsty in #33, let me be clear that I’m absolutely revulsed by torture–not to imply that it’s exclusive an ru phenomenon–yet numerous reports are out there describing the most unspeakable acts that a human can perform on another human being. I won’t describe them, nor will I link to any photos, nor would I click on any videos that purport to show them. At 71 years, I’m pretty damn sure that I would never be capable of that, and yet I take grim satisfaction watching ammo dumps light up, and tanks cooking in the breeze, but especially those videos where the invaders are shown to be denazifying and demilitarizing themselves in the most creative ways, such as standing in the blast zone of an RPG launcher.
But here’s the deal: the notion that Ukrainians and russians will somehow be “reunited” again as “brother nations” (Narrator: They never were) again has been foreclosed on, perhaps permanently, courtesy of one putler and this thugs.
Слава України!
livewyre
@Chetan Murthy: That image is an example of what I think is meant by letting him be your teacher, let alone your imagination of him. If his forces can reach anywhere and do anything, what act is not justified in return, or in advance?
It’s not just killing or subversion of process that we’re being wronged by. It’s also a fascination with death and mechanical disassembly of other beings, for no other justification than them being the wrong kind, that wrongs us. No tormentor goes unscathed.
If we can be reduced to war of all against all, as long as our kind is the one that prevails, then that is a victory for the end – and for him. I seek a different role model.
livewyre
To extend a bit. Maybe it’s just themes of finality that are haunting me at the moment, and I don’t mean to step on anyone’s venting at the utter mindless horror that’s being wrought for the worst reasons humanity can come up with. I’m just exceedingly wary at anything that could cause anyone to share those reasons – anything that makes the thought of killing easier in general. Surely it’s to our credit that it’s so difficult in the first place.
These reasons are so miserable and grotesque that we’re tempted to think of anyone who could act on them as another kind – a lower, lesser kind. Demons, zombies, monsters. Not our kind. Not like us. Worthy of whatever treatment we can think of. It’s a hell of a temptation. It feels good to do that – intoxicating. We want more, even if it makes us feel sick at first. That part we can get used to. Then it’s just a matter of filling the need.
Just as well that our structures aren’t run by someone taken by that kind of motivation, right? At least, not anymore.
MobiusKlein
@livewyre: Perhaps the graphic images serve to remind us that war is not the video game stylized clean explosion of a tank, but the death or dismemberment of a mother’s son.
The goal must be victory over the opponent, not their death.
Martin
@Carlo Graziani: Excalibur seems to cost about $70K each. That’s a lot, but I’d bet if you factor in the reduced number of rounds to hit a target, the increased effectiveness of surprise, and the logistics cost, they aren’t really that expensive.
What I’m surprised by is why we aren’t flooding them with XM1156 kits. It’s really clever solution – it retrofits a conventional 155mm round with a GPS and fins by screwing into the fuse well. Costs about $6K each. Not as precise as Excaliburs, but probably close enough.
bjacques
I have to wonder if the foreign (and domestic) observers at the Vostok 2022 war exercises are furtively checking Twitter and TikTok (hell, even Balloon Juice and DailyKos) to check how Russia’s military are performing under actual battlefield conditions as opposed to the set pieces they’re paying to watch.
I know it wasn’t the intention, but the counter-offensive coinciding with Vostok is genius-level trolling.
*chef’s kiss
HeartlandLiberal
I check Twitter several times a day, hoping for the coming surrender of 10,000 to 15,000 Russian troops. I firmly believe it is coming. And it will be a massive moral and psychological blow to Russia, and the the war criminal Putin.
I also keep checking Twitter for news that Trump has been indicted and arrested, but that’s another story.
Chetan Murthy
@livewyre:
The RU AF are not my teachers. Instead, it is Srebrenica and what happened during Partition in India. That can happen in America, and it will, if the MAGAts have their way. An important part of preventing that outcome, is destroying their foreign support.
It can happen here. We have to stop RU from supporting our homegrown Fascists.
Chetan Murthy
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dr. luba
@Spadizzly: Late on a dead thread but…..My father grew up in Soviet Ukraine. His father was executed by the Russians, and his family were starved by them. Many in his village died. He grew up seeing corpses.
I have no compassion for those who bring about such nightmares.
Russia had a chance to become a decent modern democracy after 1991, and blew it. Ukraine has had numerous chances to become an autocracy, but the people have risen up in two revolutions since 1991. Each country has made its choice.
Carlo Graziani
According to the NYT this article in Ukrainian, authored by Zaluzhnyi, confirms that the attack on Saki naval air station was carried out by Ukraine SOF.
The Times didn’t retrieve a lot of details from the article. I wouldn’t expect a full translation, but if one of our Ukrainian speakers woukd look it over to see if there are any nuggets of information on the attack thst might be worth knowing about, I’d be very grateful.
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: I can’t read the NYT piece due to their paywall, but the Ukrinform article is the one that’s been referenced a lot the last two days, since Zaluzhniy says in it that “limited nuclear war” cannot be ruled out. I’m still hunting for a full English translation, but this Reuters piece hits more of the key points. It’s more of a perspective article than a strategy or tactics article, discussing how Ukraine should prosecute the war in 2023
ETA: There’s nothing of substance on the attack on Saki.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks.