It’s sort of HIMARS O’Clock:
Screenshots of the munition. Possibly a GMLRS. pic.twitter.com/aLUMFqHa9Z
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 16, 2022
Fine, it’s GMLRS O’Clock! I don’t have a GMLRS O’Clock graphic though, so we’re sticking with Boris Groh’s hungry, hungry HIMARS eying the Kerch Straits Bridge.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
World Food Day is celebrated on October 16. This day is established in memory of the establishment of the UN special structure dealing with poverty and famine – FAO. This is the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
For decades, the world has worked to solve the problem of famine. And it is unlikely that any of the founders of the UN could have thought at the time that in the XXI century all of us in the world will again be forced to fight the threat of mass famine, moreover artificial famine!
A famine for which only one country in the world is responsible – Russia – and its terrorist war against the free world.
When Russia blocked our Ukrainian ports and disrupted normal food supply chains, it returned the world to a situation as if these decades of work for international food security had never existed.
Fortunately, Ukrainian ports started working again for the export of agricultural products. Since July, we have been supplying exactly the amount of food that restores stability to the world market. And precisely to those segments of the food market that ensure the consumption of some of the most fragile countries in Africa and Asia.
And although our export capabilities are still far from complete, we managed to export almost 8 million tons of food by sea – that’s more than 300 ships. 60% of this volume was directed to Africa and Asia. This is the global mission of our country: and thanks to Ukrainian supplies, entire regions of the world maintain social and political security.
And I want to thank everyone who ensures this: first of all our farmers, our transporters, port workers, our diplomats and government officials. Of course, our defenders, who hold the south and restore safety to the sea. And I want to thank our partners who managed to help with this initiative. In particular, UN Secretary-General Guterres and President of Türkiye Erdoğan.
We must do everything so that Ukrainian grain exports only expand. These are jobs for our people and export income. Plus funds to ensure a sowing campaign next year. And for the whole world this is one of the key guarantees of stability.
The way Ukraine helps maintain normal life in the world only strengthens the reputation of our state and makes it easier for us to establish new ties in different regions. This upcoming week, I expect new international results for our state.
And for the past week, it is worth noting the strengthening of contacts with Saudi Arabia. There are significant agreements. Among other things, this is the decision of the partners to provide a package of humanitarian support in the amount of 400 million dollars. It is very important. Right now we have the most meaningful relations with Saudi Arabia in 30 years.
The situation on the frontline has not undergone significant changes over the past day. The key hotspots in Donbas are Soledar and Bakhmut, where extremely heavy fighting continues. The occupiers threw everyone they could against our forces, including 2,000 “prisoners” – they are among the mercenaries right there.
And these are “convicts” with long sentences for serious crimes. They are kept at the front not only with money, but also with the promise of amnesty.
This is how the Russian state sponsors terror – it looks for murderers in prisons and promises them freedom if they kill again. Does anyone in the world still doubt whether Russia should be officially designated as a terrorist state? I don’t think so.
I thank all our warriors who are heroically holding their positions near Bakhmut, near Soledar and in all other directions where military clashes are currently ongoing – in the east, in the south of the country.
Today, in the Southern direction, I especially want to celebrate the 60th Inhulets Infantry Brigade, the 17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Kostiantyn Pestushko, the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Zakarpattia Brigade and the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade named after Yakov Handziuk for coordinated actions in the Kherson direction and effective destruction of enemy equipment. I thank you, warriors!
I also thank the Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigade for successfully protecting our skies from Iranian drones and Russian aircraft.
Separately, I would like to note today those units that provided us with the result of replenishment of the exchange fund. This is extremely important – everyone who captures the Russian military provides us with the opportunity to release our heroes.
I thank the 54th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion named after Mykhailo Tysha, the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade and the 92nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, which during the offensive significantly increased our ability to return Ukrainians home.
We remember our people detained in Russia. We must liberate them, and we must liberate them all, leaving none to the enemy. But for this we need to capture the occupiers – as many as possible.
And one more thing worth talking about today.
Due to the Russian missile terror in some cities and regions of Ukraine, energy workers have to limit the supply of electricity so that the entire system works stably. But it will be possible to avoid such stabilization blackouts if all of us in Ukraine consciously treat our consumption during peak hours. This is a small thing for every person’s life – but extremely tangible within the entire energy system. For example, this Saturday residents of the Chernihiv region limited their electricity consumption by 20 percent. I am very grateful to you. And in general in the country on average – by 10 percent. Kyiv and the region – only by 7 percent. Please do more – if you have the opportunity. From 17:00 to 23:00 we must reduce our electricity consumption. This is a step that, along with others, will ensure the failure of Russian terrorist plans.
I am grateful to everyone who defends Ukraine!
I am grateful to everyone who fights, works and helps for our victory! Unity and joint actions are our strength, the strength of Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Last night in comments I posted reporting/analysis by Jay Smart that was then quote tweeted with further analysis by Chuck Pfarrer. Several of you reacted a bit strongly to this. I added those in comments because a few minutes before I did Cole started texting asking if I’d seen anything on it. I found three legit references. Smart’s, Pfarrer’s, and one by Konrad Muzyka. Muzyka runs a security consultancy in Poland and has been focusing on Ukrainian and Russian issues since the invasion. By legit, I mean I know who they are and I can validate their credentials even if I don’t always agree with their analysis.
As I indicated in the comments, I think there are two equally plausible explanations. The first is that Smart, Pfarrer, and Muzyka are correct and the Russians, with the Belarusians in tow this time, are staging for a relatively imminent attempt to make another push to Kyiv. This would be stupid, but we’ve not exactly seen smart out of the Russians since the re-invasion started. We’ve seen brutal. We’ve seen ineffective. We’ve seen horrific. We’ve rarely seen smart. The other option is that the Russians are once again using Belarus to stage troops being moved from Russia and by doing so near the border in combination with Belarusian forces, it serves to divert Ukraine’s attention and resources just in case Russia decides to do more than use these forces as a distraction.
With the clarity that only time can bring, Andrew Roth provides further information about what seems to be going on:
Interesting OSINT report about the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus: what we can see are mobilized Russian reservists arriving at training bases, not units with offensive capabilities at the borders. Raises questions: is Belarus supposed to be simply a training site? https://t.co/wHM4ib7Ksh
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) October 16, 2022
However, there’s also this, which could be an indicator of equipment being moved for the training of the Russian troops referenced by Roth or for a new assault as suggested by Smart, Pfarrer, and Muzyka:
The transfer of military equipment with new tactical signs was noticed near Minsk, Belarus. pic.twitter.com/a40UTGfkhn
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) October 16, 2022
This is something to continue to watch and see what develops.
One further point on this before we move on, when information comes in from credible sources and initial analysis is done, analysts often default to the most deadly course of action (MDCOA) that is plausible given the information at hand. I actually had to do this for a client on Friday. Basically I was provided with a set of verifiable facts and asked what it meant. I gave two plausible explanations. The most deadly one and a completely innocuous one/least deadly one. I explained that I could, with the data I had, make equally forceful arguments for each. I wasn’t trying to have my cake and eat it too. I was trying to give my client the best answer I could given the limited, though accurate and verifiable, information I was provided. In this case, while I gave you all both of those possibilities in the comments last night, Smart, Pfarrer, and Muzyka gave only the most deadly possibility. And the reason for that is, if you don’t do worst case while a war is raging, then you will definitely be unpleasantly surprised if/when it turns out the innocuous explanation wasn’t the correct interpretation of the information. Last, last thing on this: this type of work is as much artisanry as science. So just keep that in mind too. I’m not asking you to agree with everything or everyone I post, but please remember this type of analysis isn’t an exact science. And is as much art as science.
Here is the aforementioned Chuck Pfarrer’s, former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader, most recent assessments of the situations in Izium and Kherson:
IZIUM/1300 UTC 16 OCT/ UKR forces have consolidated control of the H-26 HWY and the rail line leading to the city of Svatove. RU combat engineers are constructing trench systems west of the P-66 HWY between Svatove and Kremenna, indicating a local shift to defensive operations. pic.twitter.com/hvHQGYfIsH
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 16, 2022
KHERSON/1415 UTC 16 OCT/ Today’s briefing of the UKR general staff reports a significant uptick in Close Air Support (CAS) and Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) sorties. 35 strike missions hit 24 RU military targets, including the interdiction of 8 RU air defense complexes. pic.twitter.com/cmGI1Aob8R
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 16, 2022
And for those who have been questioning Pfarrer’s sources, here you go:
OPSEC/ NOTE ON SOURCES: Today’s maps on Kherson and Izium reflect information revealed in [today’s] 16 OCT tactical brief of the UKR General Staff. To determine disclosure levels, you may wish to consult:https://t.co/EjejU4EFd9 pic.twitter.com/u7ytTRm6n5
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 16, 2022
This is interesting:
Comparison of Russian and Ukrainian attack schemes:
I decided to compare the offensive of Russia in the spring and the counteroffensive of Ukraine in September in order to understand the reasons for such different results 1/17 #RussiaUkraineWar #kharkivcounteroffensive pic.twitter.com/VcOIVOidfW— Volodymyr Dacenko (@Volodymyr_D_) October 15, 2022
Here’s the rest from the Thread Reader app:
2/ Russia
From the very beginning of the war, Russia built its offensive operations along the main highways and key population centers. This is understandable because the Russian offensive relied primarily on heavily armored vehicles.3/ In this war we saw tank columns trying to storm a city without any infantry, air, or artillery cover. Which is an absolutely failed strategy.
4/ This led to the fact that tank columns were ambushed. Large forces could be blocked in narrow directions, as we saw near Kyiv, where a column of equipment stretched for tens of kilometers.5/ Since May, Russia has somewhat changed its tactics, increasingly using assault groups of light infantry (mainly mobilized in Luhansk and Donetsk). The task of which is to find a weak spot in the defense for further breakthroughs of the main forces.6/ The attacks were accompanied by massive artillery fire. In May-June, Russia apparently reached the peak of the use of its artillery. At that time, the number of shots reached 50-65 thousand shells per day, if we rely on the data of the Ukrainian military.7/ But the concept of the Russian attack remained unchanged. Russia moves from one settlement to another, moving along the main roads.
The disadvantage of this strategy is:
1) high military losses (because the Russians carry out a lot of assaults, most of which are unsuccessful);8/
2) high dependence on Soviet artillery, which requires intensive logistics and a large number of warehouses;
3) the slowness of the war (instead of one attack, the Russians have to repeat the same sequence with each subsequent city).9/ All this led to the fact that in July-August Russia no longer had enough forces to continue the massive offensive. In July, the Russians called it an “operational pause”, but later the “pause” turned into a retreat and flight of Russian soldiers from Kharkiv Oblast10/ Ukraine
Ukraine has built a completely different concept of attack. Many mobile groups move not on the main roads but on forest and steppe roads. These groups “fill the space” between Russian forces, cut supply routes and create the effect of a local encirclement.11/ After breaking through the defensive line, the second offensive line attacks the Russian positions from different directions.
This requires high coordination of actions and reliable communication in order to understand where one’s own/someone else’s is.12/ Russia has very poor intelligence and coordination. After the breakthrough of the defense line, the military command often does not understand the operational situation, receives information with a significant delay, and therefore makes many wrong decisions13/ Often, the Russian military retreats when they should rush into battle. And vice versa – they continue the fight when they should retreat.
This leads to high military losses during the retreat.14/ Result:
Russia has a significant advantage in the number of armored vehicles and artillery, but this creates big problems for logistics. The Russian army needs a lot of fuel and ammunition.15/ Because of this, the Russian army is “clumsy”. Poor coordination, intelligence, and training of soldiers only worsen the situation.16/ The Ukrainian army is much more mobile and organized. Ukraine has better intelligence, which allows you to accurately assess the situation on the battlefield.17/ But the insufficient number of armored vehicles leads to the fact that a large part of the army is made up of light infantry, which is unprotected from artillery fire (especially during the offensive).
This morning it was reported that Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to Russia. There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as well, just as the USA and NATO countries provide.
— נחמן שי- Nachman Shai (@DrNachmanShai) October 16, 2022
Shai is the Israeli ambassador to the Jewish diaspora. Whether the Israeli government will heed his counsel I cannot say.
Here is the Middlebury Institute’s non-proliferation subject matter expert, Jeffrey Lewis’s, analysis:
We've created detailed models of both Iranian missiles, using official statements (in table below), mensuration, and computer modeling. Comments welcome; we're constantly iterating these models. I've shared the parameters of the models are in the next couple of tweets. pic.twitter.com/FR8myxwIPY
— Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) October 16, 2022
- The Fateh-110 is capable of delivering a 500 kg payload to about 300 km. Our model, below, suggests this might understate its performance. Combat use in Ukraine might answer some questions we have. sketchfab.com/3d-models/fate
- When @fab_hinzwas still at CNS, we made an estimate of the Fateh-110’s accuracy (circular error probable) based on the missile strike against Ain Al Assad. I think it’s quite likely the missile has a CEP of about 15 m, as Iranian sources have stated.
- The Zolfaghar can carry a 600 kg payload to about 700 km. Our model suggests that Iran achieved that by both making the missile bigger and, more importantly, by using a wound-filament airframe. sketchfab.com/3d-models/zolf
- One of the happier days I’ve had a work was when I learned our best measurers could reliably estimate the size difference between the Fateh-110 (610 mm) and the Zolfaghar (680 mm) under favorable conditions — a difference of just ~10 percent.
- Our performance estimates, using STK Missile Toolkit, indicate that the range extension is more about the reduced weight of the airframe than the larger size of the missile. Missile Toolkit is is one hell of a piece of software.
There are tables and images at Lewis’s thread if you want to see them.
Speaking of ATACMS, file this under plausible, but in need of further validation:
NOTE: ATACMS were provided to Romania in recent months. Many analysts, including Indications & Warnings, have concluded that UKR used ATACMs systems against the Saki airfield and the Kerch Straits bridge. https://t.co/Ap05mNnmu2 pic.twitter.com/BQgUcV2Na7
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 16, 2022
What’s Russian air defense doing?
SEADs of DESTRUCTION: UKR's Gen'l Staff revealed today thatin the last 24 hrs, eight RU air defense systems were destroyed in Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) missions. This TOR battery was hit in Kherson- likely by a NATO supplied HARM (High speed Anti-Radiation Missile). https://t.co/JwCrhyPS1p pic.twitter.com/VrHRkmGPsI
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 16, 2022
Blowing up!
And speaking of Kabooms:
Footage of Donetsk mayor’s office after Ukrainian strikes today. pic.twitter.com/uS2lnXlexA
— Leonid ХВ Ragozin (@leonidragozin) October 16, 2022
Nothing like a little urban renewal.
Bounty on Igor Girkin (Strelkov) has been increased to 100,000 USD. That will make a more valuable target for his “fellow” soldiers. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/UhPsjw8CgP
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 16, 2022
Girkin is one of the people responsible for Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014. He’s a member of the Black Sea Cossacks – one of the free ones, not the service ones* – and cut his teeth doing these types of dirty deeds in Moldova in the early 1990s when he helped the Soviet dead enders break away and form Transnistria. He is overdue for a comeuppance.
The last thing for tonight, before what you’re really here for (Patron…), is the AP’s deep dive into Russia’s theft of Ukrainian children: (emphasis mine)
Olga Lopatkina paced around her basement in circles like a trapped animal. For more than a week, the Ukrainian mother had heard nothing from her six adopted children stranded in Mariupol, and she was going out of her mind with worry.
The kids had spent their vacation at a resort in the port city, as usual. But this time war with Russia had broken out, and her little ones — always terrified of the dark — were abandoned in a besieged city with no light and no hope. All they had now was her oldest son, Timofey, who was still himself just 17.
The questions looped endlessly in her head: Should she try to rescue the children herself — and risk being killed, making them orphans yet again? Or should she campaign to get them out from afar — and risk them being killed or falling into the hands of the Russians?
She had no idea her dilemma would lead her straight into a battle against Russia, with the highest stakes of her life.
Russia’s open effort to adopt Ukrainian children and bring them up as Russian is already well underway, in one of the most explosive issues of the war, an Associated Press investigation shows.
Thousands of children have been found in the basements of war-torn cities like Mariupol and at orphanages in the Russian-backed separatist territories of Donbas. They include those whose parents were killed by Russian shelling as well as others in institutions or with foster families, known as “children of the state.”
Russia claims that these children don’t have parents or guardians to look after them, or that they can’t be reached. But the AP found that officials have deported Ukrainian children to Russia or Russian-held territories without consent, lied to them that they weren’t wanted by their parents, used them for propaganda, and given them Russian families and citizenship.
The investigation is the most extensive to date on the grab of Ukrainian children, and the first to follow the process all the way to those already growing up in Russia. The AP drew from dozens of interviews with parents, children and officials in both Ukraine and Russia; emails and letters; Russian documents and Russian state media.
Whether or not they have parents, raising the children of war in another country or culture can be a marker of genocide, an attempt to erase the very identity of an enemy nation. Prosecutors say it also can be tied directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has explicitly supported the adoptions.
“It’s not something that happens spur of the moment on the battlefield,” said Stephen Rapp, a former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes Issues who is advising Ukraine on prosecutions. “And so your ability to attribute responsibility to the highest level is much greater here.”
Even where parents are dead, Rapp said, their children must be sheltered, fostered or adopted in Ukraine rather than deported to Russia.
Russian law prohibits the adoption of foreign children. But in May, Putin signed a decree making it easier for Russia to adopt and give citizenship to Ukrainian children without parental care — and harder for Ukraine and surviving relatives to win them back.
Russia also has prepared a register of suitable Russian families for Ukrainian children, and pays them for each child who gets citizenship — up to $1,000 for those with disabilities. It holds summer camps for Ukrainian orphans, offers “patriotic education” classes and even runs a hotline to pair Russian families with children from Donbas.
“It is absolutely a terrible story,” said Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to the Mariupol mayor, who claims hundreds of children were taken from that city alone. “We don’t know if our children have an official parent or (stepparents) or something else because they are forcibly disappeared by Russian troops.”
The picture is complicated by the fact that many children in Ukraine’s so-called orphanages are not orphans at all. Ukraine’s government acknowledged to the U.N. before the war that most children of the state “are not orphans, have no serious illness or disease and are in an institution because their families are in difficult circumstances.”
Nevertheless, Russia portrays its adoption of Ukrainian children as an act of generosity that gives new homes and medical resources to helpless minors. Russian state media shows local officials hugging and kissing them and handing them Russian passports.
It’s very hard to pin down the exact number of Ukrainian children deported to Russia — Ukrainian officials claim nearly 8,000. Russia hasn’t given an overall number, but officials regularly announce the arrival of Ukrainian orphans in Russian military planes.
In March, Russian children’s rights ombudswoman Maria Lvova-Belova said more than 1,000 children from Ukraine were in Russia. Over the summer, she said 120 Russian families had applied for guardianship, and more than 130 Ukrainian children had received Russian citizenship. Many more have come since, including a batch of 234 in early October.
Much, much, much more at the link. Including video and pictures.
Your daily Patron!
Dancing Sunday from Ukraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/KZ3dPtIPXa
— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 16, 2022
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Ось так! #славаукраїні #песпатрон #патрондснс
The caption machine translates as:
That’s right! #SlavaUkraini #PatrontheDog #PatronDSNS
Open thread!
* To quickly explain and definitely oversimplify, free cossacks are those born into a cossack family. Service cossacks are non-cossacks who sign a contract to become cossacks.
bbleh
That thread from Dacenko is really interesting, and if it’s an accurate summary, very illuminating.
Alison Rose
The kidnapping and brainwashing of Ukrainian children alone ought to mean the Western world gives Ukraine any and every God damn weapon it wants.
(I say brainwashing because that’s sure what it sounds like to me–when they tell the kids that their parents abandoned them and don’t love them anymore and that they had to be rescued from their country since it’s full of Nazis……….yeah, they’re brainwashing. And it is utterly despicable and horrendous.)
Thank you for the explanation regarding Pfarrer’s (and others’) comments and analysis and all that. As I’ve said before, I know precisely fuck all about this kind of stuff, and I very much appreciate your explanations and input. The notion of presenting the worst-case scenario makes sense, even if it means I’m up way past my middle-aged bedtime most nights.
Also, I found my new favorite phrase thanks to this video from the In Ukraine FB page: “spineless apostles of appeasement” – yep.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Anonymous At Work
And, as always, thanks for these updates. You tend not to speculate and that takes efforts when the intelligence and reporting is being deliberately (and legitimately limited).
bbleh
@Anonymous At Work: re (1) by many reports Bakhmut was hell but have seen recent reports that RU efforts have stalled …
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: Belarus is considered by Russia to not just be part of the coalition of states that Russia is the head of, but actually sort of a dual sovereign part of Russia. Don’t think to hard about it, you’ll get a nose bleed.
Steeplejack
@Adam L Silverman:
C’mon, comrade, rus is right there in the name!
Origuy
I mentioned in an earlier thread that the shooting at a Russian camp that left 13 dead was apparently committed by two men who had joined from Tajikistan. Reportedly a Russian officer made a statement that “Allah is a coward”.
The rightwingers who laugh at diversity and cultural sensitivity training should see what happens without it.
Villago Delenda Est
Compare and contrast with Seb Gorka.
Villago Delenda Est
@Origuy: Russian officer dumbass. “Allah” is Arabic for “God”. The same one the Russian Orthodox Church worships.
Emma from Miami
I try to be as measured in my opinions and judgment as is possible. In fact, friends often say that I would try to find a redeeming story for Pennywise the Dancing Clown. These days, though, I find myself hating the Russians. Logically I know there are millions of decent Russians in this world but watching this monstrosity day after day, night after night, i feel something good and human shrinking inside my soul.
Adam L Silverman
@Villago Delenda Est: Remind me to one day tell the story of how quickly he folded like a cheap suit and began to grovel when he cold emailed me pitching me to take his “course” on information warfare.
Andrya
@Villago Delenda Est: Roman Catholic Christians in Malta address God as “Alla”. (Maltese is derived from North African Arabic but with a lot of loan words, because Malta was for centuries a crossroads for anyone with a ship.)
Of course, T****’s idiot henchman Michael Flynn has said almost equally obnoxious things about Islam.
bbleh
@Adam L Silverman: somehow Seb Gorka and “cheap suit” seem to just … go together.
Villago Delenda Est
@Adam L Silverman: You sent me an email version of it, but I’m sure the Juicitariat would love to hear it.
Adam L Silverman
@Villago Delenda Est: That’s right. I had forgotten.
Andrya
@Villago Delenda Est: Yesss, yesss, Adam, please tell us! Gorka and the cheap suit! We wants it, precious, precious, Gollum, Gollum….
As always, Adam, thanks for doing this.
frosty
@Andrya: Yessss! And front page it too, don’t bury it in the comments.
Dan B
@Andrya: I hope those Maltese respond to Peter Thiel with NYET! Or whatever ‘no’ is in Maltese, to his citizenship request. It appears, however, that the EU may have words with Mr. Thiel.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman:
Pepperidge FarmBalloon-Juice Remembers:Glenn Greenwald’s Purge Binge.
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.
Dan B
It just occurred to me that the Zolfaghar missile with a 700 kilometer range could cause serious damage across almost the entirety of Ukraine. Is it vulnerable to the anti-missile equipment from Germany?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
This would actually be a smart move, as shocking as that concept is in reference to the Russian military, because dumping a lot of these almost worthless Conscripts into Belarus to threaten Kiev seems a lot more effective than putting them into combat. Given them some time to train up while at the same time tying down some UA units.
kalakal
With any luck the Iranian government will not be in any position to supply weapons to anyone fairly soon
Dan B
@Dan B: I looked up the Zolfaghar missile and there’s no info on speed but it is likely not hypersonic so vulnerable to an anti- missile system.
Alison Rose
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Honestly, sending a clowder of feral cats would probably be more effective than russian troops.
(Also: Please remember – Kyiv, not Kiev)
Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Good opportunity for the Wagner prisoners to take their issued guns and rob the Belorussians blind, and for the “Moblik’s to try to cross the border to Poland, Lithuania or Latvia.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Gods, some of these video like that one of the damaged mayors office are creepily like something out of a first person shooter game. All it needs is a HUD. Life imitating art, or something.
Alison Rose
Just realized it’s been a few days, maybe a week, since I saw G&T comment in one of these threads. Hoping they’re okay :/
bookworm1398
I continue to be puzzled by the Russia buying weapons from Iran thing. Is it an indication that Russian manufacturing is in much worse shape than I thought?
Yutsano
@Another Scott: Oof. I was enjoying the thread until I saw Mary G’s comment. We have really lost some great people along the way. Okay I’ll count Corner Stone in there too.
Sebastian
I am glad you got some rest, Adam. This post is one of your best. I have no words for how grateful and happy I feel for the privilege of having a front-row seat to such an analysis.
Jay
wombat probabilty cloud
@Sebastian: Ditto, and also would love to hear the Seb Gorka story.
Bill Arnold
@Dan B:
The distance from Northern Ukraine to Moscow and immediate surrounding area is less than 700 km. If Ukraine acquires, or builds their own, ballistic missiles (or even cruise missiles) with similar range…
(Perhaps a thermobaric warhead for maximum non-nuclear explosion per unit mass.)
I hope Russia is not so stupid as to go there. It would escalate, as noted above by Jeffrey Lewis above.
Sebastian
@Adam L Silverman:
Pretty please! Maybe a Christmas Special?
Can’t wait to hear that story.
Citizen Alan
@Villago Delenda Est: No fundamentalist Christian will accept that anymore than a Muslim will accept that Jesus was the Messiah.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Jay: Wanger is the one doing that mini offensive in the east that looks like a reenactment of the Battle of Verdun because the guy runs it trying to be Putin’s successor so he wants to be seen by the Russians as the hero who didn’t give up.
Jay
@bookworm1398:
In the Russian Military Modernization program, drones and loitering munitions were neglected, as Russian doctrine is arty centric and aviation acts as ground support, (flying arty).
Even using drones for surveillance or fire correction, was neglected. As a result, while drones are populated down to the squad level in NATO doctrine, the are not in Russian forces.
As a result of encountering Ukrainian drones, and their effectiveness, from Backtayars down to hobbiest drones, Russia tried to “binge” on drones.
Drones rely on either specialized military sensors/IC boards or dual use commercial. Sanctions have made their drone manufacturing/ramping efforts choke.
Iran has been cranking out drones and loitering munitions for over a decade, and seems to have established a “straw buyer” supply chain that evades sanctions.
Origuy
@Alison Rose: G&T said they were taking a break from social media. I’m sure the stress is intensified for someone with personal interest.
Jay
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Origuy
@Citizen Alan: I’m sure that anyone who is saying аллах is referring to the Muslim idea of God. Certainly that’s how the Muslim Tajiks would take it.
Andrya
@Citizen Alan: It’s too late at night for me to check in with Muslim friends, but my understanding is that Islam DOES say that Jesus was the Messiah.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I agree w/ your take on the possibilities of a new offensive from Belarus, but I just disagreed w/ some of the quoted analysts that evacuation notices by Chinese/Serbian/Central Asia embassies in Kyiv is evidence one way or the other.
columbusqueen
OT, I lost my older tomcat, Tristan very suddenly in the early hours of the morning. The vet thinks he had a seizure that filled his lungs with fluid. I feel completely numb with the shock.
Andrya
@columbusqueen: I’m sorry. As an elderly person, I have lost a number of pets, but it never gets easier. I’ll say a prayer for you and for Tristan.
oldster
Russia’s new dependence on Iran may change the optics here at home.
Take Marjorie Taylor Greene (please!). She happily embraces her role as a Putin-supporter, and feels no shame in being pro-russian.
But what about when it turns out now that she is also pro-Iranian? That she’s fighting on the same side as the mullahs?
Does this offer any new paths for making her and putin’s other enablers (Tuckyo Rose, for example) look bad in the eyes of some of the Republicans who may flirt with putin, but will draw the line at Iran?
Jay
sdhays
@bookworm1398: Anything that depends on advanced electronics is subject to western sanctions since Russia has no native advanced technology industry and never expected the west to take this so seriously. And they’ve been burning through their stockpiles bombing playgrounds while the UAF have been kicking their asses, so they’re running out.
YY_Sima Qian
@Dan B: The Zolfaghar being a short to medium range ballistic missile, it might have a reentry velocity in the low hypersonic (as in just over Mach 5) range, & it does not seem to have terminal maneuvering capabilities. Thus, Ukraine’s early generation S-300 missiles should stand some chance of intercepting them. The new Germany IRIS-T SAMs are relatively short ranged and relatively slow. They are for battlefield air defense & point defense of key targets from aircraft, cruise missiles & attack drones, not ballistic missile defense.
The missile uses inertial guidance & possibly civilian GPS, Wikipedia shows CEP of 100 m. At this level of accuracy they are only good for large infrastructure targets, such as power plants & rail yards, & each will require some quantity of missiles to make an impact (especially if using unitary warheads, as opposed to cluster munitions).
Dan B
@Andrya: Prophet not messiah, as I recall. A holy man but not Allah.
Kelly
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: Wanger mercs? Excellent
YY_Sima Qian
I am not sure what the Iranian regime hopes to gain from supporting the Russian invasion w/ weapons, hard cash? They are alone in this, & their support is unlikely to change the course of the war.
Andrya
@Dan B: Definitely not Divine. A Messiah is not necessarily Divine. (There is no expectation in Judaism that the Messiah would be Divine.) In default of talking to an actual Muslim at this late hour, I checked the Wikipedia article “Jesus in Islam” (link). Wikipedia’s verdict: yes to Messiah, yes to prophet, no to Divinity.
John Revolta
@oldster: Been wondering about this too. No so much whether the GOPers are gonna switch to backing Iran- they switched to backing RUSSIA after all- but more how they’re gonna rationalize it.
Dan B
@YY_Sima Qian: Thanks for the clarification. It’s discouraging to hear since it means that Ukraine’s 50% success rate with intercepting missiles will mean more terror unless something new appears to shield them. Hello Israeli Iron Dome?
sab
@columbusqueen: I am so sorry.
Ksmiami
@Emma from Miami: it’s a shit country with a bunch of alcohol damaged serfs. My sympathy is gone
Chetan Murthy
@John Revolta: That’d be some wacky shit, if they switched to supporting eye-RAN. Can’t see it happenin’ … I mean, the place is filled with those people, knowhatimean?
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Iran is selling them, while still denying that they are selling them, so sanctions free cash, quick,
plus, Iran probably believes that a UNSC Veto Member now “owes” them one, but can they “collect”?
Roger Moore
@Origuy:
They don’t care. You see lack of cultural sensitivity as a mistake that’s interfering with the ability to achieve other worthwhile goals, like winning the war. They see things completely differently. To them, the purpose of the war is achieving cultural dominance. Acknowledging the validity of Tajik culture would by definition be a failure. You can’t win a war by sacrificing the thing you’re fighting for.
Alison Rose
@Origuy: Thanks, I must have missed that. Makes sense.
Also…just saw a NYT notification, more explosions in Kyiv. Fuck russia all to hell.
Alison Rose
@columbusqueen: I’m so sorry :(
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: To be honest, a 15m CEP for the Fateh-110 stated in the tweet above seems very generous. It’s not at all clear to me what the basis for this claimed accuracy is.
Steeplejack
@columbusqueen:
So sorry to hear this. My condolences.
🌈 🐾
Sebastian
@columbusqueen:
I am so sorry.
YY_Sima Qian
@Dan B: Iron Dome is designed to intercept incoming rockets & mortar rounds, not ballistic missiles traveling at multiple Mach numbers. Ukraine needs newer generation S-300s (such as the PMU3 version) or newer generation Patriot missiles (such as the PAC3) to intercept even the relatively unsophisticated ballistic missiles such as the Zolfaghar.
I think Senator Chris Murphy has recommended relocating the Patriot batteries protecting the Saudi refineries from Iranian ballistic missile to Ukraine. Multiple birds w/ stone. Not sure if the Saudis own those batteries, though.
Redshift
Another piece of the Belarus puzzle, according to the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper:
This seems describe Belorussian preparations for potentially being attacked (shelter training, distributing military weapons to some sort of home guard, perhaps.) This could be in anticipation of a response to an attack or threat from Belarus, or an attack on Russian troops training there (similar to Belogorod), or could just be part of the propaganda effort. Hard to tell, but maybe it’s related.
Feathers
Josh Marshall is RTing people saying there have been several explosions in central Kyiv
Sebastian
@Ksmiami:
Someone wrote that Russia is a nation of Fetal Alcohol Syndrome. I find it hard to disagree.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: You could achieve ~ 15 m CEP w/ civilian GPS guidance. Chinese & Russian ballistic missiles have claimed such accuracies for 2 decades. However, the US can interfere w/ the resolution of civilian GPS signals in the launch areas, which presumably will be w/in Russia/Belarus, so not much collateral damage in doing so.
This is why China developed its own Beidou satellite navigation system, & Russia has kept its GLOSNASS.
phdesmond
@Andrya:
my understanding is that Muslims accept Jesus as a prophet. that’s a lower rank than a “savior.”
cain
Do we have to? I mean really.. I’m trying to drink booze here.
phdesmond
@Andrya: oh, didn’t know that!
Cameron
@Andrya: AFAIK, Islam does not have a Son of God; it recognizes Jesus as a prophet, but Muhammad (feel free to correct my spelling) was the ultimate prophet.
phdesmond
@Cameron:
Messiah is not the same as Son of God. andrya’s link to Wiki is worth a glance.
Andrya
@Cameron: I agree. I never said Islam recognizes Jesus as the Son of God- that is definitely not the case. I simply said that as far as I know, Islam recognizes Jesus as both a prophet and as Messiah- neither implies Divinity or being the Son of God.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: I believe that I had the more skeptical reaction to the possibility of a new offensive from Belarus. I probably stated it more dyspeptically than I ought to have, because Pfarrer, but I believe that the reasons are pretty soundly grounded in the political logic of Belarus’, and Lukashenka’s, extremely tenuous security situation, which can only be aggravated by permitting the Russians to open a new Kiev front — if the Russians were even capable of doing so without getting their clocks cleaned, which I’m pretty sure they are not.
Briefly, Belarus’ military is weak and inept; Lukashenka is wildly unpopular at home; his ally, Putin, has turned out to be unable to produce the quick triumph that he promised, and worse, now appears barely in control of Russia, and Russian forces could easily be heading for humiliating defeat within weeks; hundreds, possibly thousands of Belarussan citizens have joined the Ukrainian army to fight the Russians and are going to eventually return to Belarus with military training, a dislike for Putin’s allies, and itchy fist; so far Western sanctions on Belarus have been mild compared to sanctions on Russia, but declaring war on Ukraine would certainly change that, and make Belarusan territory open season for the Ukrainian military, including SOF; and all this would make Lukashenka’s position even more precarious than it is already.
He’s a coward, but not an idiot. Belarus started shipping its T-72s to Belgorod last week — east, not south. The Russians can have them, if they insist on staging their Gotterdammerung. Lukashenka would prefer survival, thank you very much. The
Benno
@Cameron: yes, Jesus was a prophet, just not the last prophet.
cain
@Benno:
The last prophet is the one that gets to turn off the lights. I suppose they’ll have to fight Jesus as well cuz he’s coming back one last time too. Of course, Krishna/Vishnu is also coming back – so there might be a free for all of dieties
Redshift
@Carlo Graziani: Yes, Lukashenko has a long history of doing enough to stay in Putin’s good graces, but not anything that would risk his own standing. It’s hard to see what advantage there could be for him in joining the war now in any capacity. He wouldn’t be joining the winning side, and Putin is less able than ever to threaten him if he doesn’t go along.
Chetan Murthy
@cain: The only real god is Sithrak! An insane god for an unjust world. Praise Sithrak!
Ishiyama
@Chetan Murthy: He wants you to suffer!
Chetan Murthy
@Ishiyama: Pray to Cthulhu! Pray to Cthulhu! Pray to be eaten first!
bjacques
@Chetan Murthy: And the uncoiling of the Midgard Serpent!
Stay tuned for our next thrilling episode:
Ragnarok ‘n’ Roll
Or
Armageddon Outta Here!
in all its insane glory:
https://view-comic.com/anarchy-comics-issue-4/
NotMax
@Benno
“Ladies and gentlemen, the Great Prophet Zar’quan!”
//
lowtechcyclist
@John Revolta:
Probably something like mullahs defending traditional values (anti-woman, anti-gay, and don’t even think about trans, and belief in a deity that backs those
valuesprejudices with the appropriate level of hatred and hostility) just in their own cultural metier.Fall in queue
@Andrya: Islam says that Jesus was a prophet, second in stature only to Mohammed, who is also a prophet. Islam is strident about monotheism and considers all that God-made-flesh business to be very silly.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I agree about Lukashenko. If there is a new Russian offensive from the north, the Belorussian Army is very unlikely to join in the effort.
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: G&T hasn’t been around at all. He did say he was taking a break from the internet. But I hope he comes back. I hope his loved ones are okay.
zhena gogolia
@columbusqueen: I’m so sorry!
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Yesterday’s Washington Post article on these missile sales said that some Zolfagher missiles had “electrooptic guidance systems” that allow missile operators to guide their approach to target. Washington Post October 16.
The article did not say if the missiles supplied to Russia carried this system. It did report that “Iranian technical advisors have visited Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine to provide instructions on operating the drones.” So if Iran does have this system they may well want to help the Russians test it against Ukrainian targets and air defense.
Iran is a large country with a population of 85 million, a decent industrial base and plenty of capable engineers. Their government has devoted large amounts of these resources to its arms industry. The transactions with Russia will put profits into the hands of ownership which is generally well connected to the Iraninian Revolutionary Guard Corps and/or powerful civilian officials.
Carlo Graziani
This cannot possibly mean what it seems to imply — real-time operator steering. With a high-mach terminal approach, at best a time-delayed satellite link, but in the case of the Iranians a low-bandwidth over-the-horizon (UHF?) link, it seems simply technically non-feasible. It would seem a bad idea to insert a human operator even with real-time high-bandwidth comms, given the high velocity approach trajectory, because a small angular error would result in a large-distance miss.
Perhaps it means that the operators can program the guidance system to recognize the target based on satellite imagery and perhaps a trained convolutional neural net working with input from the optical feeds attempting to match the sat image?
Jinchi
@YY_Sima Qian: Among other things, the Iranians get the benefit of field tests of their technology in a battlefield environment against American countermeasures.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jinchi: Sure, but geopolitically there will be a price to pay. For one thing there will be much less sympathy from the European powers in any kind of confrontation w/ the US/Israel/Gulf States. Hitherto most countries outside of the Gulf States & Israel have blamed the US pulling out of the JPCOA for escalating tensions wrt Iran’s nuclear program. Perhaps Iran has calculated that they were not going to receive meaningful support/reprieve from the EU, anyway. The EU is far too beholden to the US’ extraterritorial sanctions.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I think WP’s reporters may be confusing guidance for the attack drones w/ guidances for the ballistic missiles.
Perhaps the Zolfaghers can perform maneuverable reentry, they do have control fins on the warhead. Unlike the obsolete Scud, the the warhead seems to detach from the booster prior to reentry, so it will present a relatively small, possibly maneuvering target for missile defenses. As I said, I think Ukraine needs S-300 PMU3s or Patriot PAC3s to have effective defenses against short to medium range ballistic missiles. Russia importing Iranian Zolfaghers suggests that they have run out of the Iskander ballistic missiles.
I don’t doubt that the Iranians can field effective ballistic missiles. They definitely have more dangerous weapons than the Zolfagher in their arsenal. Aside from indigenous efforts, they probably have received quite a bit of assistance from China & North Korea over the years. Still, CEP of ~ 100 m will limit their operational utility. More than adequate as a terror weapons against cities.
Bill Arnold
Cheryl Rofer linked to a good interview with Fiona Hill (in Politico, but a good interview). Worth a read (and maybe a second read).
Eight months into Russia’s war against Ukraine, POLITICO talks to the Russia analyst about whether Putin’s aims are evolving and what it would take to end the war. (MAURA REYNOLDS, 10/17/2022)
Broad set of topics covered; here’s one (that might be helpful in the leadup to the US midterm elections):
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
See this thread.
The basic argument, IIRC (it’s been a while) is that Trump threatened massive retaliation if any Americans were killed by Iranians, and the Iranians still hit Ain Al Assad with missiles. And no Americans were killed (some concussion damage though), and that this was the Iranian gamble.
Either improbably good luck[1], or accuracy similar to Iranian claims. (Or some combination.) A different type of missile, but it is possible that guidance systems are similar on other types.
[1] It’s worth noting that M. Pompeo claimed that the intent was to kill Americans, and that the Iranians were unlucky in their attack. (Pompeo is massively biased, rational but with really dumb priors IMO. Also, the Iranians are skilled at playing with complex odds.)
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: The Fateh-110 does indeed have 15 m CEP, but much lower range of 200 – 300 kms, depending on the version. the Zolfagher, however, has range of 700 kms. The longer the range, the more difficult to achieve low CEP, especially if the civilian GPS signal relied upon is degraded by the US.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Damn, someone was showing the Tankies twitter posts and what a trip.
The Tankies logic is just as convoluted as Q-anon’s. The usual, start with a conclusion and then go find the evidence to support their conclusion, and if there is no evidence; claim conspiracy. Also Hitler; one of them talked to Leni Riefenstah over breakfast once at a hotel fifty years ago, so that makes him the expert on Nazis and in his most informed opinion the United States is exactly the same as Nazi Germany!!! And a lot quotes apparently supporting their position from long and safely dead people, so totally 100% no quote mining going on there. Apparently, the Tankie consensus is the West sekreatly’ created the country of Ukraine seventy years ago as a tax haven (under the very noses of the Soviet Union at the height of The Cold War, sneaky Westerners)
The real thing that strikes me personally is lack of specifics in the Tankies claims. Everything was in these general terms and them never them showing specific examples . I suppose of a Tankie did that the discussion would get into why the US is doing that thing and what are the other actors in that thing are doing, and then the Tankies would have to concede agency to little brown people, slavs and other people who aren’t white Americans. Can’t have that.
The Tankies sure come across as pack of upper class WASP douches who went so far to the Right they ended up on the Left.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@YY_Sima Qian: Incidentally, the Iranians were back tracking today on that they sold the Russians these missiles.