Before we dive into the Ukraine update, just a quick update from Tehran:
Dramatic scenes at the airport: "Elnaz, Ghahreman! Elnaz, Ghahreman!" Ghahreman means hero pic.twitter.com/fpxYYs8kGl
— Karim Sadjadpour (@ksadjadpour) October 19, 2022
I still can’t quite articulate it – it is percolating away in the back of my head – but something feels very different this time.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump (emphasis mine):
Dear Ukrainians!
Today was quite a fruitful day.
I met with the European Commissioner for Crisis Management. I thanked Mr. Lenarčič for all the assistance that was provided during the full-scale war. We discussed what other humanitarian needs of our people could be met with the help of our European friends. Of course, we touched on the situation with energy.
I spoke today with the President of Turkey. I thanked him for supporting our territorial integrity. We discussed the key security issues currently Ukraine and our entire region are facing. The key topics are efforts to further release our people from Russian captivity, defense cooperation, export of Ukrainian food.
I held negotiations with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Greece – he arrived on a visit to Kyiv for the third time since February 24. I thanked Greece for its support in the defense sector. We agreed to strengthen our cooperation in bilateral relations and at the level of the European Union, as well as at the level of NATO.
Tomorrow I will participate in the European Summit – I will contact my partners. The key topic, of course, is challenges to our energy, both Ukrainian and European. We will respond to the terrorist threat together.
Today, Andriy Yermak met with representatives of the embassies of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain at the Office and discussed the strengthening of our anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense.
We are working to guarantee the complete safety of the Ukrainian sky. We already have significant results: 233 Shahed UAVs and dozens of missiles were shot down during the month. Ten Iranian drones were destroyed today and this is only in the Kyiv direction. Another 11 Shahed UAVs were shot down thanks to the soldiers of the Pivden air command. Thanks guys for the great job!
There are results in other areas as well. But, unfortunately, there are also impacts. We have new damage to critical infrastructure. Today, three energy facilities were destroyed by the enemy.
Of course, we will do everything possible to restore the normal energy capabilities of our country. But it takes time. And this requires our joint efforts. Tomorrow they are needed even more than before.
There will be clarifications from the heads of regional administrations and government officials, but in general, it is necessary to be especially conscious of electricity consumption from 7 am tomorrow.
Please do not turn on unnecessary electrical appliances. Please limit your electricity consumption and use those appliances that consume a lot of energy. Tomorrow, it is very important that the consumption is as conscious as possible, and thus the schedules of stabilization blackouts will be shorter.
I held a general meeting on energy issues today – the Office, government, energy companies.
We are preparing for all possible scenarios in view of the winter season. We assume that Russian terror will be directed at energy facilities until, with the help of partners, we ensure the ability to shoot down 100% of enemy missiles and drones.
Separately, today I want to address our people in the temporarily occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine. In the near future, the occupiers will try to recruit men into their army. Everywhere is the same as in Donetsk and Luhansk. Please avoid it as much as you can. Try to leave the occupied territory.
If you cannot do this and find yourself in Russian military structures, at the first opportunity try to lay down your arms and come to Ukrainian positions. And most importantly, protect your life. And be sure to help our other people who are close to you. Our common task is to persevere. Stand against these weirdoes…
Russia avoided even the word “war” for six months, punished its own people with criminal cases for it, and now it declares martial law in the occupied territory.
The occupiers themselves brought the war to our land under their constant false pretense of alleged negotiations, and now they are signing some decrees cementing the war.
Well, what can I say? It’s just hysterics of the “Chekist comrades.” Hysterics, which will be greater the closer Russia’s defeat is.
In the evening, I signed another decree on awarding our soldiers. Seventy one servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were awarded state awards today.
I thank everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! I thank everyone who helps our defense!
And I would like to thank separately for the fact that it was the Ukrainian people who this year became the laureate of the special honor of the European Parliament – the Sakharov Prize. This award is given annually to those who have made the greatest contribution to the defense of democracy, human rights and European values. It is really important that all Ukrainian men and women – millions of our people who so bravely defend freedom were recognized in Europe this year.
Glory to our beautiful people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Putin decided to declare martial law in the Russian occupied territories of Ukraine, which is why President Zelenskyy is concerned that the Russian press gangs may quickly be put to work. And why he issued the guidance he did to any Ukrainians in those occupied territories impressed into Russian military service.
Putin says he's introducing martial law in the four partially occupied Ukrainian regions he annexed last month. This is portrayed as a technicality – he said it de facto already exists – but is a clear response to recent military setbacks as Ukraine's counteroffensive advances. pic.twitter.com/zTOanR1N1C
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 19, 2022
Putin's not calling it martial law, but he's also introducing sweeping limitations in six Russian regions on the Ukrainian border and Crimea.
These include "mobilizing" the local economy for the war effort and strict limits on travel.https://t.co/CaBgM8mbEn
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 19, 2022
The "other measures" could include, but not be limited to, sweeping censorship and wartime economic restrictions on things like "the free flow of goods, services, and funds," according to existing law.https://t.co/ak09nB0TfL
— max seddon (@maxseddon) October 19, 2022
Ukrainian SOF and the Ukrainian partisan underground are going to be busy…
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situation in Kherson:
NOTE: RU has accelerated evacuation of dependents and collaborators from Kherson, in apparent anticipation of a UKR offensive directed against the city. Reportage is limited to information disclosed this morning by the UKR General Staff. Updates will follow.
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 19, 2022
The Russians tried to bombard Kyiv again today:
Yeah!
5 out of 5 Russian missiles bound to hit Kyiv again have been intercepted today. https://t.co/AHFwQyBaOs— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 19, 2022
“All clear” in Kyiv.
Terrific work by @KpsZSU today.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 19, 2022
And again this evening in Kyiv:
We in Kyiv just had a 5-minutes-long air raid alert time 😀
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 19, 2022
Today, the enemy attacked Ukraine with strategic aviation. Six X-101/X-555 cruise missiles were launched from Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers. Ukraine was also attacked by "Shahed-136" kamikaze drones.
The Air Force of Ukraine destroyed:
4 X-101 cruise missiles;
10 "Shahed-136" drones.— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) October 19, 2022
Anti-aircraft defense of the Air Force of Ukraine sends greetings to the occupiers 😁
🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine!
☠️ Death to enemies! pic.twitter.com/m8bPYphrNE— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) October 19, 2022
Lord, guard and guide the men who fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)
I want to finish with a few excerpts from a column – what I would call a key leader analysis – about Putin at Just Security. But before that I want to explain something. Two nights ago in the comments there were some pretty strong reactions to the excerpts of Politico’s interview with Fiona Hill. Based on them, and the responses to them, I think I need to clarify a couple of things. Dr. Hill has now done at least two stints as a political appointee in the US government. The most recent was as the Senior Director for Russia and Eastern Europe on the National Security Staff (NSS) of the National Security Council (NSC).
The first thing I want to correct is the assertion that she went to work for Ambassador Bolton. As everyone here knows, I’m not a fan of Bolton’s, but Dr. Hill did not go to work for Bolton. She was already in her appointment when Bolton replaced LTG (ret) McMaster. I have some small modicum of understanding of how LTG (ret) McMaster tried to square the National Security Staff and the National Security Council away when he took over for LTG (ret) Flynn. Specifically, in regard to appointment’s like Dr. Hill’s, he was looking for the best qualified, high performing, experienced subject matter experts he could get – a lot of subject matter experts were unwilling to work in the Trump administration – and place them in positions where they could do quality work on behalf of the American people regardless of their personal political and ideological preferences. Dr. Hill, regardless of who was president and regardless of which party held the presidency, is one of those people in regard to Putin and Russia. This does not mean that she is infallible or should not be criticized, but she was in that position because through hard work in education, as a scholar, and as an analyst she’d earned the right to be there.
One final note or caveat. There are basically two types of people with PhDs or one or more masters in various fields and significant expertise working in various places in the US government. There are those of us on various career tracks and there are those that go back and forth at very senior levels between government service and academia or the think tank world. There isn’t one path that is better than another, they’re just different. There is one major difference: those of us making a career – or in my case a second career – spend far more time overall working for and in the government than those that go back and forth. And that, as well as which part of the government we work for, does have an effect on how we understand our areas of expertise and, quite frankly, what the respective parts of the government we work for and in should be doing and how they should be doing it.
You don’t have to agree with any of our analyses of any particular issue – we’re not infallible – but a little less dismissiveness just because you don’t agree might be appropriate.
Moving on, and trust me the above will make sense in the context of moving on, here’s some excerpts from Douglas London’s column on Putin from Just Security. London had a 34 year career in the CIA’s clandestine service and is now a professor of intelligence studies at Georgetown.
Assessing whether Putin will resort to nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons – a question that took on new resonance as his regime has faltered even before the Kerch bridge attack — is no easy task. Policymakers would do well to remember three fundamentals that guide Putin’s decision-making: 1) he is the product of the 1970’s and 1980’s KGB and stood witness in then-East Germany in 1991, when the world as he knew it ceased to exist; 2) ego, survival, greed, and ambition direct his moral compass; and 3) he has come to believe his own propaganda.
As a Russian-speaking CIA operations officer who spent much of my career pursuing and countering Russian intelligence officers of Putin’s era, and those who would follow, I don’t expect his next steps will be guided by Clausewitz’s strategic military teachings, Sun Tzu’s enlightened pragmatism, or Machiavelli’s guidance for princes. Putin will pay little heed to the limited, practical, battlefield utility of nuclear or chemical weapons, or overly concern himself that prevailing winds might bring the fallout’s enduring harm to his own people. Putin’s logic is simple: It’s all about him, his court’s blind, obsequious obedience, and reasserting control. There are no rules, only consequences, that shape his calculus. In Putin’s mind, the rules of the post-World War II order were designed by an elitist West to restrain and humiliate his country (never mind that his country helped shape and long participated in that order and those rules), negating any obligation he has to respect them, or the words and treaties of his predecessors.
Putin will not look to his own military for counsel. There is no love lost between the Russian leader and his armed forces. A Cold War-era KGB officer, he was indoctrinated with profound mistrust in them. His micromanagement of Russia’s military campaign, disinterest in its catastrophic losses, and reliance instead on the Federal Security Service, or FSB, for his war in Chechnya and initial strategy in Ukraine, reflect this attitude.
The fact that Putin’s recent choice of General Sergei Surovikin as the first overall commander of the military campaign in Ukraine hails from Russia’s Air Force speaks more to this dynamic than the candidate’s brutal Syrian war record. We in the West might think it odd to appoint an Air Force officer for a campaign in which Russia’s manned aviation has been largely ineffective and its rocket forces and kamikaze drones — courtesy of Iran — are punishing civilian targets while producing limited military gains. But unlike Russian Army ground force commander Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, another Russian general with a bloody reputation from Syria who was appointed in April to lead Russia’s fight in Ukraine only to be fired in June, the Air Force is a far less worrisome threat to Putin’s power. After all, tanks, soldiers, and guns are needed to storm the Kremlin, not planes, and the ground forces work for the Army, with problematic loyalty to an Air Force commander.
Indeed, if Putin is like others of his generation and profession — and his behavior suggests that he is — he will use nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons if he believes doing so is the only means to preserve his power as dissent increases within his own ranks and military options dwindle. For Putin, that translates into curbing Western support for Ukraine and demonstrating strength, control, and invincibility at home.
Even as the Soviet Union disappeared and the Russian Federation grew from its ashes, with dramatic societal and economic changes that altered its citizens’ lives for the better in the initial recovery from the devastating 1998 financial collapse, Russian intelligence officers emerging from the KGB’s demise behaved as if time had stopped in 1991. Their outlook and modus operandi were much the same as it had been during the Cold War. Russian agent recruitment operations still relied on, and indeed preferred, coercion and money to exploit the weaknesses and foibles of prey they believed easily intimidated, morally corrupted by progressive values, and inferior to themselves. Exploitable vulnerabilities and fear, Russian intelligence officers believed, offered better control over reporting sources than ideology.
To understand Putin, then, requires comprehending the mindset of a predatory intelligence officer. Putin is like a shark who must keep moving to survive. Only in his case, the reason Putin is an object constantly in motion is to outrun his failures, change the narrative in his favor, and keep adversaries at bay. He deals with misfortune by doubling down and redirecting energy into even more sensational initiatives. It is not in his nature to pause, reflect, and thoughtfully adjust to changing circumstances, or be influenced by experts he should respect. Rather, Putin prides himself on the ability to shift on the fly and go it alone, without ever showing weakness, let alone fear. Putin will therefore be inclined to charge ahead with whatever might overshadow his misfortunes and make others forget the burning houses left in his wake. But the more he blusters and threatens, the more we know Putin is struggling, weak, and threatened. A dangerous time, yes, but one that also offers opportunities for the West.
Putin’s threats should be taken seriously. But given how his military has performed in Ukraine, he is not likely to seriously seek a conventional war with NATO that he realizes would end poorly for him. That’s the very reason Russia officially adopted its nuclear first-use policy after the Cold War: in case Russia feels it is losing drastically in a conventional war. Dangerously, though, Putin counts on the West’s lack of stomach to bear such costs themselves and assumes the West would not retaliate in kind, therefore allowing him then to deescalate. Reckless as that might sound to the United States and its allies, it actually reflects Putin’s intelligence officer’s mindset, and that’s where the West must focus – he’s unlikely to act without leaving an escape route; appearances and the image he portrays is a critical component of his actions that allows for false posturing to conceal weakness.
Particularly worrisome is Russian messaging to normalize and justify Putin’s prospective use of a nuclear weapon. He’s certainly considering it; it would, after all, be reasonable to entertain and assess the utility of all the tools at his disposal. And I would not count on what ought to be a more logical aversion – that using nuclear weapons could cause pervasive harm not only to Russia’s people but also to its economy, damage that could include losing China’s support and that of India. The logic that holds that Putin would not risk losing his own extravagant wealth or undermining the country’s economic fortunes that underpin his internal support is our logic, not his. My experience with Russian intelligence officers is that they prize power and position over wealth. The former guarantees the latter.
Much, much more at the link!
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Open thread!
Steve in the ATL
I feel like I don’t even know you anymore
Edmund Dantes
Iran regime is stuck at that point that what they need to do to truly end it (without just waking away) is going to be so brutal that it will only delay the re-kindling (and probably be the fuel for it) of the very thing they are trying to stop.
trollhattan
Taking Kherson is a tall task but if Ukraine can do so, and drive Russians back across the Dniepro River before winter arrives, it would seem to be a significant accomplishment. LFG!
Anonymous At Work
Iran feels different this time because there’s direct anger without a single source, unlike in 2009, and there’s no leader to the protests. Mullahs can’t decapitate things, can’t bribe protestors. It’s not a great hope nor a good thing to hope that the Iranian people just snapped, up and down the social ladder.
Urza
I was having a conversation today with a coworker whose wife is Ukrainian, but he is conservative. He was saying the 2 oblasts that voted to leave had legit votes for it, even though the Ukrainian constitution doesn’t allow for it. Also that Crimea should have never been Ukrainian which seems like Russian propaganda.
tybee
thanks again for your posts
CarolPW
@Urza: What does his wife say?
Gin & Tonic
@Urza:
It is.
zhena gogolia
@Urza: Total B.S.
Andrya
@Urza: Beyond the fact that the Ukrainian constitution doesn’t allow for it, the people of Crimea voted in the early 1990s for independence. Since that time, huge numbers of people have left as refugees and russia has moved in many russians. This is as though the Biden administration forcibly removed a million Republicans out of Texas and then said “Whoopeee! We have a majority in Texas!”
zhena gogolia
@Urza: THERE WAS NO LEGIT VOTE
zhena gogolia
I’m sorry, I’m beat and too tired to read Adam’s post, which looks really interesting. Must go bed now. Glad about the air defense.
Princess
I really wonder how or if Iran’s experience with Covid has affected events that are happening now. I remember the mass graves being dug in March 2020 and I’m not convinced the statistics we have from Iran are anything like as grisly as what actually happened there especially in the early period when the government was pushing for voting and pilgrimages and people were dropping like flies. That kind of thing can leave permanent scars and change your attitude to government.
Alison Rose
I admit, I got a surprising giggle out of Zelenskyy calling them weirdoes. I suppose the Ukrainian word he used might have a slightly different context and that was just the best translation, but even so, I appreciated it. I highly approve of belittling and demeaning the shit out of the occupiers.
The Douglas London column is fascinating in a very staring-at-the-car-wreck kind of way. I do wonder if the billion words written and spoken all about who putin is, what motivates him, how he thinks, what he might do, what he can do, etc etc etc, is something he takes pleasure in. That is, if he is capable of experiencing any emotion other than spite and hate.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Medicine Man
My take-away from London’s analysis is that giving Putin any notion that he can wield NBC weapons and NATO will not respond is the most dangerous thing we can do right now.
Andrya
@Medicine Man: I totally agree. There is considerable evidence that if France/UK had pushed back against Hitler’s invasion of the Rhineland, WW2 (at least in Europe) could have been avoided. Sometimes appeasement is the most dangerous thing one can do.
SpaceUnit
Douglas London’s assessment of Putin feels right, unfortunately. I think his tentative failure to take over the US via trumpism and his failure to quickly conquer Ukraine by military force has rendered him a wholly untethered psychopath. Who can say what that asshole is capable of.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: The word he used is “неадеквати” – which very literally means “inadequates,” but in normal usage is more like “morons” or a similar English word that is now seldom used due to its insulting nature. The inadequacy being implied is in cognitive processing. I’d guess someone in his office is familiar enough with English to go for a softer touch on the translation. To me. “weirdo” would be “чувак.”
Manxome Bromide
@Gin & Tonic: If I’m sounding that out right, it looks something like “goovak.” Is this cognate with “goofball”?
Tony G
@CarolPW: Maybe he’s one of those guys who doesn’t care what his wife thinks, as long as she’s making him a sandwich.
Adam L Silverman
@Urza: All of that is Russian propaganda.
Carlo Graziani
I know what you mean — suddenly it feels not so much like the urban elite’s alienation from the regime, as the entire society’s. But our information is so constrained that one wants to guard against self-delusion.
The markers to look for are the usual ones that we know about: evidence that elements of the security forces, law enforcement, armed forces, intelligence units, etc. are turning against the regime. It’s the necessary condition for success of a popular revolution, if not the sufficient condition.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
Yikes!
“Our logic” = our bias. We’d better take the blinders off.
Hopefully the Biden admin’s open to seeing this situation clearly. The President’s public statements that have caused so much pearl-clutching among our media betters give me hope that this is the case.
Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
@Gin & Tonic: Dumbasses?
ETtheLibrarian
Replace Putin with tRump.
To understand Putin, then, requires comprehending the mindset of a predatory intelligence officer. Putin is like a shark who must keep moving to survive. Only in his case, the reason Putin is an object constantly in motion is to outrun his failures, change the narrative in his favor, and keep adversaries at bay. He deals with misfortune by doubling down and redirecting energy into even more sensational initiatives. It is not in his nature to pause, reflect, and thoughtfully adjust to changing circumstances, or be influenced by experts he should respect. Rather, Putin prides himself on the ability to shift on the fly and go it alone, without ever showing weakness, let alone fear. Putin will therefore be inclined to charge ahead with whatever might overshadow his misfortunes and make others forget the burning houses left in his wake. But the more he blusters and threatens, the more we know Putin is struggling, weak, and threatened.
Sounds like he is talking about both of them. No wonder tRump love Putin; kindred spirits.
Gin & Tonic
@Manxome Bromide: It’s “chuvak.”
Raoul Paste
This is really, really interesting reading. I rarely comment, but absorb these posts almost every night. Thanks
NotMax
Dunno whether or not this has been brought up.
Chetan Murthy
@NotMax: Hand-in-glove with the Goddamn GrOPers, they are. Hand-in-glove.
Kent
In my mind the fact that here, in 2022, a nation is seriously considering first use of nuclear weapons in support of a policy of genocide means that they have forfeited any right to exist.
Russia must be utterly dismembered. There is no other alternative. There is honestly nothing else to say.
Cameron
@NotMax: If you go to any of the Russian-cheerleading sites, you’ll see this – it’s very real. Not just the Russians; it’s all the other folks (including plenty of Americans and Brits) who contribute to those sites.
Ksmiami
@Kent: exactly. The country is a menace to the world and needs to be destroyed utterly.
bookworm1398
I heard a theory today that Putin next focus will be on infrastructure attacks on NATO countries like the German train disruption. Seems simultaneously more and less dangerous than a nuke in Ukraine.
kalakal
@Carlo Graziani: The information we have is so limited that its very difficult to make an assessment but what seems off to me is the level of response. In the past the Iranian govt has shown no hesitation in cracking down very hard, very fast. I’m not implying they’ve suddenly become all touchy feely, far from it but after several days they’re still using riot squads/ snatch squads not troops with machine guns. I’m sure they want to do that but are worried that if they give those orders they may not be obeyed ( or only by some units) at which point it’s game over. Also in this instance it’s nationwide, they can’t isolate a couple of cities or a province, they have to keep the lid on everywhere and if they try extreme force could cause a nationwide explosion.
Another Scott
Thanks for London’s column. Some things to think about there.
My impression is that VVP took Nixon’s “madman” theory of international politics/war to heart. VVP’s tactics in every military conflict he’s been in has been to act as if he’ll keep killing civilians and destroying infrastructure until he gets what he wants and has no qualms about it. “At least it’s an ethos” as the saying goes. :-/ He doesn’t seem to recognize that history teaches us that most tyrants eventually over-reach and that he’s not the one with the strong hand here.
Jeffrey Edmonds at TheBulletin (from May):
Kinda relatedly, ICYMI, …
We need to vote the monsters out. And keep them out.
(via jonrog1)
Cheers,
Scott.
TurnItOffAndOnAgain
@Ksmiami: You can go in there first. We’ll be right behind you.
NutmegAgain
I need to say–I very much hope my comment yesterday regarding Fiona Hill, and comments about her on another blog, were clear that I was reporting in on somebody else’s opinion. I was very surprised by the take-downs of Dr Hill for all the reasons enumerated by commenters as well as Adam. I admire her greatly, and think she has integrity, terrific insights, and a real gift for presenting material clearly and comprehensively. I’ve never worked or consulted at high levels of government (although my dad did). However I do have a PhD and have done plenty of research sponsored/funded by an alphabet soup of Federal and state agencies. All in all I would never make (fundamentally anonymous) statements criticizing someone who is an expert in an area where I decidedly am not!
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you, that’s interesting to know. I’m sure you’re right about the calculation too–his team is clearly very skilled at hitting the exact right note in their communications.
Fake Irishman
@NutmegAgain:
that was the spirit in which I read your comments. I wouldn’t worry about it too much.
charon
@Another Scott:
Pootie believes Russian propaganda which largely reflects his own wishful thinking. So yeah, he really does not know that.
Alison Rose
@NotMax: Not surprising. I recall seeing online, at Pride events in Ukraine and especially during the petition to Zelenskyy to allow same-sex marriage, a lot of signs that said “Leave homophobia to russia” – I’m sure a lot of Ukrainians want to make it clear this is yet one more area where the two countries are NOT aligned.
YY_Sima Qian
@Anonymous At Work: Leaderless movements (or those weak/decentralized leadership) tend not to succeed. Or if they do succeed in overthrowing a regime, what follows is anarchy, then seizure of power by cynical charlatans or the most organized (&/or organize the fastest) gang(s). See the French Revolution, & to an extent the Russian February Revolution of 1917 & the Chinese Republican Revolution of 1911.
Calouste
Problem with that scenario for Putin is that if dissent is on the rise, there might already be enough dissenters that his orders won’t be carried out. Or people might have a more optimistic view of the situation and not carry out orders because they think the time to drop the big one hasn’t arrived yet.
Carlo Graziani
The London piece is good. Again, however, there is an element missing, in my opinion.
Putin has never been accustomed to dealing from a position of weakness before. His ruthless, violent, underhanded, duplicitous bullying style has been fruitful because prior to 2022 he never overreached and never confronted a superior correlation of force capable of dealing him a setback. All models of Putin’s behavior and mindset are based on observations of how he acted when he was riding high.
He’s entering the eighth month of a nearly continuous ass-kicking now. Everything he built for the past two decades is turning to shit, every assumption that he’s made about how Ukraine would collapse, how the West would back down, how China would rescue him, etc. have turned out upside-down-and-backwards wrong. And the party that he needs to intimidate is NATO, which he actually succeeded in reviving instead, and which can drop a much larger hammer on Russia than any punch Russia can swing.
Putin is weak, and feels weak, and afraid. That’s how a bully feels when intimidation stops working, and when nobody is afraid of his threats anymore. His cowardice is where maximum pressure should be applied now. He should be kept afraid. He should be threatened, because that is the language that he understands. Russian nuclear bluster should be ignored, and the US should make it perfectly clear — I believe that it already has — that Russian escalation beyond conventional thresholds will be met with immediate violent NATO response. He should be made so terrified of another rout that he starts finding reasons to pull forces out of Ukraine. The idea that we should be walking on eggshells because he might nuke someone is absurd and exactly the kind of ascendancy that he would like to have over the West, but doesn’t deserve.
We need to stop dealing with 2021 Putin. This is Putin now.
Steve in the ATL
@CarolPW: “I’m divorcing you”
Priest
Can we jump on the territorial upheaval bandwagon and cede Florida back to Spain? I’d have to do passport/customs to visit mom, but a small hassle in exchange for having the EU next door.
Chetan Murthy
@Priest: wait wait, why don’t we cede *all* the Blue states to ….. Sweden? [overwhelm their neo-fash, wot] ? EU passports all around! Huzzah! Or at least, cede California to … France ? *grin
Mike in NC
OT: spent most of the day trying to get my computer to recognize an SD memory card slot. Might just give up and hire somebody to fix it for me.
Carlo Graziani
@kalakal: That’s a very interesting take.
Andrya
@YY_Sima Qian: I have to disagree about the russian February 1917 revolution. I believe that Lvov and Kerensky’s fatal mistake was keeping russia in WW1- people had simply got fed up with feeding the young men of Europe into a meat grinder for no discernable reason. Horrific as the Bolshevik aftermath was, when Lenin said “land, peace, bread” it resonated.
Fun story to share with everyone: in the late 1940s my father was a PhD candidate in history at Stanford University, where, of course, Kerensky was also teaching history, especially that of the russian revolution. My father knew Kerensky personally. In a seminar in “Early 20th Century Russian History”, taught by Kerensky, one student said “How could Kerensky have been so stupid?” (to stay in WW1). The student literally did not realize that it was the SAME KERENSKY. I asked my father how Kerensky took it, and he declined to elaborate.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani:
I’ve read that in the quarters where the elite live, the Basiji (“morals” police) don’t go: they know better than to arrest the female relative of some high-ranking official. And so, eventually the rest of the population realized this, and this has been some part of why they’ve been revolting. B/c they know that other Iranians get to live in freedom. It’s not the only reason: they want freedom, full stop. But knowing that others already have it, due to the corrupting nature of power, is added spur. Or so I have read.
Bill Arnold
@Kent:
Sure. Best, probably, if the Russian Federation false apart acausally (like radioactive decay), or at least with no obvious external causal influences.
Urza
@CarolPW: Never met her, seems to not speak English very well when I hear her in the background of meetings. Apparently had a nursing degree in Ukraine but having trouble doing it here for decent pay now that the kids are school age. Has a mother in Kyiv that refuses to move here, or move to Russia. Willing to put up with the bombing there so I don’t think there’s a way to convince her to leave.
wombat probabilty cloud
Too tired to be articulate, but _thank you Adam; especially for the nuance of the discussion about Dr. Hill. As a (retired) evolutionary biologist who had to balance scientific credibility with advocacy for conservation/environmental efforts, the difficult choices of context and allies are familiar. Also, the AFU cloud photo is f’king hilarious. Should be copied to Joni Mitchell.
Anoniminous
Nuclear Strategy 101: submitting to nuclear blackmail ensures the blackmail will continue.
Urza
@Tony G: Loves his wife, cares about Ukraine because of it, still picking up Republican propaganda to which he is devoted and brings up often before the invasion. I won’t start it but I have trouble not keeping my mouth shut when people spout it.
Urza
@Adam L Silverman: Do you, or anyone else, by chance have a wiki or some articles about the Crimea vote and the other vote as well as facts about Russia moving in its people to agitate at the time. I do recall it happening and read about it then, but it wasn’t exactly major news at the time.
Preferably irrefutable sources since at least some of the Russia didn’t do it is being said, or he thinks was said by his wife. And maybe that was her viewpoint at the time but who knows what news propaganda she was hearing and definitely has some family ties to Russia so might lean that way a bit before the invasion.
sdhays
@Carlo Graziani: I think Putin’s primary “strategy” is to keep as many balls in the air as he can until the West politically loses the will to continue. That’s his guiding light – that the West is weak and unable to bear any burdens for much time. I think he’s miscalculating how much time he actually has, even if he has some helpers in the American Congress in 2023. His army sucks and there’s a lot of support already committed.
If Republicans fail to take any house of Congress in November, he should then be very clear that he won’t be able to hold out long enough. Once he is able to face that reality (which won’t be right away, based on the lag we’ve seen on reactions to battlefield defeats), we’ll be in a totally new situation where his go-to strategy is dead.
I hope he just keeps deluding himself that the West will cave and rescue him until he completely destroys the Russian army and falls out a window without doing anything even more crazy. (Ok, I really hope he just dies tonight and whoever replaces him just pulls everything back to pre-2014 borders and everyone lives happily ever after, but that’s not realistic).
YY_Sima Qian
@Andrya: The February Revolution was largely leaderless, & Lvov & Kerensky were thrust into leadership of the Provisional Government as weak compromise figures. The Provisional Government itself was quite weak, having to share power w/ the Petrograd Soviet (initially dominated by Mensheviks). You are right that staying in WW I was a major cause of the eventual Bolshevik takeover, it was the only party adamant about exiting the ruinous war, & in that it had strong popular support. However, Bolshevik ability to organize & act radically placed them at an advantage against the other factions. The Provisional Government was not shy w/ violence, though.
The October Revolution did not result in outright Bolshevik victory, either, but years of blood letting in multiple multi-front wars (Reds, Whites, factions of local nationalists, invading foreign armies) across the carcass of the Russian Empire. If the Iranian regime collapses, we may well see similar dynamic play out, at a small scale.
One difference is that both late Russian Empire & late Qing Empire had very weak central authority, & so did the initial regimes that replaced them. Iran, AFAIK, does not have strong local power centers
Very interesting about the connection to Kerensky.
way2blue
@Anonymous At Work: I’m an ignorant westerner and don’t understand why wearing a hejab is compulsory. Is simply a symbolic way to show obedience to (male) religious rulers? As property?
@YY_Sima Qian: Is it feasible that the current government & power structure would agree to reforming their more onerous restrictions? Or would they perceive any compromise as showing weakness?
Cameron
@Priest: We could cede it back to UK, if you like – British ran Florida for about 20 years in the 18th Century. But I don’t suppose you’d like to frolic on the beach with Bojo and Liz.
Martin
Have to agree with some folks online that we have a wink and nod quid pro quo going on between Russia and the GOP. Russia tanks the election for Dems by forcing gas prices up (member of OPEC+) in exchange for the GOP cutting support for Ukraine should they win.
GOP opposing US interests in two regards here.
Jager
@Alison Rose:
All you need to know about Putin’s ego is that 8 years ago he scored 8 goals in a KHL All-Star game. There were a number of Russians on the team who had played in the National Hockey League, Pavel Bure the former All-Star from the Vancouver Canucks, would fly through the defense, Putin skating behind, drop a soft pass to Putin, who would put it past a seemingly blind goalie. 8 goals in a game, Putin must be pretty good at 62, right? I watched a video of the game, he can’t skate well enough to have made my high school team. Seems his vaunted military is just as soft as his game on the ice.
Cameron
@Martin: I think the GOP would ask for a bit more, if it could help the Russians set up a puppet government in Ukraine; specifically, some sort of BS accusations against the Biden family that the swinish oaf was demanding a couple years ago.
ian
@way2blue: It is a religious tradition. Orthodox Jewish women aren’t supposed to show their hair after marriage. Many Christian sects used to do similar traditions. Some traditionalist Quakers still do. Some Islamic societies don’t go for the hijab pretty much at all, it is rare to find it in Kosovo or Bosnia for example (and used to be rare in Turkiye, although that is changing). The problem is the extremists using domination of government to enforce their beliefs.
Here is a fun Wiki thread, if it helps.
way2blue
@sdhays: And also to toss out shiny objects (think Elon Musk) to try to get us all chasing our tails…
Cameron
@Jager: Christ, I remember that. What a fucking joke. Along the same lines, didn’t Chairman Mao once do a 20-mile swim at a rather advanced age? I guess when you got the power, then….well, you got the power.
Chetan Murthy
@Cameron: Legend has it that Saddam Hussein swam the Tigris to escape his opponents after he failed a coup in 1959. These feats of strength seem to be endemic with dictators.
way2blue
@ian: Thanks for the link. Reminds me that Catholic women used to wear lace scarfs on their head at church.
cain
@Anonymous At Work: The leaders are women. They basically have to attack all the women because they are all in on it. Good luck with that.
Jinchi
I always assumed areas of a war zone were de facto under martial law.
Is there any fundamental difference between now and before Putin declared it outright?
cain
@bookworm1398: If he attacks NATO countries – that will put the GOP in an interesting position. Or maybe not, their voters seem like they’d welcome Russians as liberators in places like Florida.
Chetan Murthy
@cain: Heh, you and I both know that if that were even remotely likely, the MAGAts’d all be shitting their pants in fear, demanding we Do Something, Do Anything, to prevent it. The only reason they’re OK with cozying up to Putin, is they think he’ll help them win, and afterwards, well, he won’t stick around (or won’t be able to stick around) to demand his price.
It’s the MAGAt version of “Nach Hitler, uns”. “After Putin finishes the Dems off, we win!”
YY_Sima Qian
@way2blue: Sure, but large elements of the regime would have to give up the cause 1st, like what happened in Eastern Europe. However the Communist governments in Eastern Europe relied upon Soviet support to stay afloat. Once that external source of support vacated, the governments could not sustain themselves. The Iranian theocratic regime is indigenous, & won’t give in so easily.
These kind of transitions are very tricky when the overall economic environment is tough, as it is now. There is huge amount of pent up rage against the regime’s oppression, but there is also a great deal of discontent due to terrible economic conditions, & in this Iran is far from alone. Under these circumstances, the regime making concessions likely won’t appease the population, but instead signal weakness that will prompt greater demands, demands & expectations that the regime cannot meet since it cannot control the larger macro environment. (BTW, this is not making excuses for hardline stances by the regime, but to describe the dynamics at play, as I see it.) When South Korea & Taiwan transitioned to democracy in the 80s & 90s, they did so in very favorable economic conditions, as they were the primary beneficiaries of the wave of globalization & the building of the E/SE Asian supply chain ecosystem. Therefore, the hard authoritarian regimes could make piecemeal concessions to buy temporary tolerance of the population w/ rising expectations for liberalization. I do not see such conditions for Iran.
There is much anti-establishment discontent everywhere in the world right now, manifesting in ways unique to each society. Governments in Pakistan & Sri Lanka have fallen. Across the developing world countries are facing poly-crises. There are large protests against NATO across Europe, surely being stoked by Russian influence operations, but also because of rising anxiety due to high inflation & energy costs, & the prospect of a hard winter. The popularities of relative new governments in South Korea & Japan have nose dived. The Japanese LDP in particular is reeling from popular outrage at the revelations of long & deep relationship its leaders have w/ the anti-Communitst Unification Church (aka. the Moonies), ironically brought to the fore by Shinzo Abe’s assassin.
After someone (discontented, brave, & possibly mentally disturbed) put up banners on a overpass in Beijing during the 20th Party Congress denouncing Xi & his policies (also published a manifesto online that quickly spread outside of the Great Fire Wall), copy cat sloganeering have appeared as graffiti on wall & bathroom stalls across China. Still very much isolated incidents, by likely lone wolf actors, & the CCP regime’s controls & sensors are keeping a very tight lid. Still, we have not seen such phenomenon before. Why? Because Xi’s 3rd term (& possibly unto death) are actually upon us, but also because China is facing the most challenging economic conditions since the start of Xi’ tenure, even more than the capital flight of 2015.
So, the Iranian people have their specific grievances against the theocratic regime, but we should keep in mind that there are also larger macro forces feeding the discontent there, & everywhere.
Stephen
Trent Telenko has an interesting thread on what he thinks Russia is trying to do with those cheap Iranian drones – basically make Ukraine spend a lot of money (missiles etc being a crapload more expensive than the drones they’re knocking out).
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1582823094766358529
YY_Sima Qian
@Stephen: Definitely an interesting take. I don’t think money is the limiting factor for Ukraine, since the AD equipment are aid in kind from NATO countries. The limiting factor is the inventory of AD missiles in NATO stock, & the production rate. I think Telenko is right that Ukraine needs large quantities of cheap AAAs to defeat the Shaheed-136 attack drones – electro-optical/radar sensors mated to Cold War era AAAs would suffice, backed up by plentiful of manually aimed AA heavy machine guns manned by territorial defense forces (14.5 mm or 12.7 mm, which Ukraine & former Warsaw Pact countries should have plenty from Soviet days, w/ mountains of ammo) for point defense.
More effective are the Swiss Oerlikon 35 mm AAAs with AHEAD programmable munitions, which have proliferated across the world in recent years. Again though, stock & production rate of programmable munitions could suddenly become a bottleneck. Italian Oto-Melara 76 mm guns w/ AHEAD munitions would also be effective, but the number of systems available & stock of munitions are much more limited compared to the Oerlikon 35 mm,
The Shaheed-136 is a low & slow drone that is not hard to shoot down, but as Telenko said, they are dirt cheap, plentiful & have long range.
Adam L Silverman
@NutmegAgain: You we’re clear. My remarks are not meant to single you out as the culprit.
Gvg
@Priest: Fuck off. I am sick of this shit. I am an American citizen, as are all my fellow Floridians. You don’t get to give away my rights just cause there are some assholes here. Keep this in front of your face, I am an American!
Also keep in mind voter suppression and intimidation by the way. We voted Obama. We voted to give felons back their franchise by a pretty large margin which our legislature and Governor have not done in twisty ways that are possible due to gerrymandering. There is a lot more going on and not going on than you know and plenty of good people.
Don’t keep othering us. It’s barbaric.
Geminid
@way2blue: Iran’s protesters seem to believe the regime cannot be reformed and must be toppled. Now a common slogan is, “This is not a protest. This is a revolution.”
After 43 years, the Islamic Republic has grown more repressive. It has the forms of democracy- an elected Partliament and an elected President- but councils of clerics vet candidates and do not allow anyone who might rock the boat a place on the ballot. Standing bodies of clerics, like the Council of Guardians, and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khameini, can override any decision by civil institutions.
This spring’s election of Ebrahim Raisi as President (after the candidacies of all other viable contenders were denied) reinforced the belief of many that the regime cannot be reformed. In the 1980s Raisi’s lack of any legal education did not hinder his rise as a ruthless prosecutor of dissenters. Raisi’s participation in the secret trials and executions of several thousand political prisoners in 1987 earned him the nickname “The Hangman.”
And the Revolutionary Guard Corps has grown into a very powerful institution with its own commercial interests. Profits from the drone sales, for instance, will accrue to factory owners with close ties to senior IRGC officials. Civilian leaders like Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini have their own business networks. Khameini’s son has been identified as a powerful cleric and possible successor, and is also known as the manager of the grand Ayatollah’s business empire.
Ordinary Iranians know these things, and they can’t help but see resources the regime devotes to foreign military adventures because the regime brags on them.
The regime cries poor and blames western sanctions, but Iranians can see that their economic stress is not shared by the political elite, and results from choices the regime makes. A popular call and response chant has men shouting “Women, Life, Freedom” and women shouting back “Men, Prosperity, Nation.”
Iran is a relatively young nation demographically. I read that 45% of its people are age 35 or younger. The younger adults grew up with the Internet and smart phones and are well informed about matters inside and outside their country. They believe their nation deserves a modern economy and real political rights, and that these cannot be achieved under the Islamic Republic.
zhena gogolia
@Carlo Graziani:
I agree.
Chetan Murthy
@Gvg: I live in California. But I grew up in Texas (which is why I live in California). Which is a greater material danger to me and mine in California: Texas, or Iran? It’s not even a *contest*: Texas is a greater *material* danger. As Richard Haas (of the Council on Foreign Relations) put it: “The most urgent and significant threat to American security and stability stems not from abroad but from within.”
I’d cut @Priest: some slack: states like Texas are destroying our Republic, and those of us in states with functioning democracies are understandably concerned, because there’s literally *nothing* we can do to change this. I mean, it ain’t like I can set foot in the God-damned place: I don’t know how to shoot, I don’t own an arsenal, and I’m not rich enough to employ a private army.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Great stuff! However, I suspect the perspective you have described represent only a subset of the people marching against the regime, albeit one most likely to be amplified in western media & social media. Clearly, the protest movement right now is broad based, cutting across geographic, ethnic, age, & income strata lines. However, while they may shout the same unifying slogans, the priorities of their motivations may not be the same.
If the movement overthrows the regime (that is a big if, since the regime & especially the IRGC has yet to bring their considerable capabilities for violence to bear to ensure their survival), there will be a power vacuum & a period of chaos, at a time when economic conditions are already terrible to start w/. At that time, a substantial portion of the population will seek refuge in promises of order, & some populist strongman will likely emerge to take advantage. Numerous regional & global powers will also seek to take advantage of Iran’s moment of weakness to effect favorable outcomes, in parts of Iran or in whole. A substantial portion of the population will gravitate toward a populist strongman promising dignity & strength.
The moment after the fall of such a hard authoritarian regime, which has so thoroughly suppressed all organized opposition, is especially dangerous & unpredictable. Frankly, the kind of chaos & anarchy is not when liberalism tend to thrive & triumph.
The French marched under Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité during their Revolution, too. What followed was anything but. It took them nearly a century before they could establish a stable republic.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Along with the military harware you describe, effective drone suppression requires an upgraded detection system. Israel’s Defense Secetary, Benny Gantz, said yesterday that Israel is willing to help Ukraine in this area.
Speaking to a group of EU ambassadors to Israel, emohasized that his nation would maintain its policy of not providing weapons to Ukraine, and provide only humanitarian relief and defensive equipment- helmets, armored vests, etc. for use by civilian emergency workers. Gantz told the ambassadors that he’d approved a new package that day.
Gantz also said that Israel has sent Ukraine a request for information as to its requirements for drone detection and warning, and that Israel was willing to provide aid in that area based on systems it has developed for its own air defense:
The information generated would likely be used by Ukraine’s military as well.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Would be absolutely helpful.
Torrey
@Gin & Tonic:
@Alison Rose:
“Weirdo” to me has an odd 1950’s vibe about it and suggests more “doesn’t fit in” than lack of intelligence, lack of insight or wrong-headedness. If they were looking for a word indicating those types of stupidity, we have plenty that do so without insulting the wrong people: “nincompoop,” “nitwit,” “dumbass.” “SFB” works too, but I guess that’s too much to expect in a presidential address, however casual.
(One of my favorite such insults comes from Hawkeye in the tv program M*A*S*H. He is reported to have called a naval officer a “NINCOMPAC.” Having worked for the Navy many years ago, I still get a grin from that one.)
Torrey
@Torrey: Sigh. Things I did not have on my bucket list: criticizing the diction of (the translators for) the President of Ukraine.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: As you say, there is a “big if” regarding the fall of the Iranian regime. That prospect seems both inevitable and impossible. If the regime does fall, I am not so worried about the aftermath, although I can only guess at what will come next.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian:
To pick a nit: The October “Revolution” was a coup d’etat, and in no sense a real revolution. Without months of preparation and conspiracy by Lenin and the Bolsheviks, it would never have occurred. This is relevant because it is here that the analogy to the situation in Iran completely breaks down.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Not necessarily. An initial revolution overthrows the old regime, but a faction later seizes power in a coup amid the power vacuum. We are still in the early stages of the “February Revolution” in Iran, if it ever progresses that far.
Yes, your are right that the Bolsheviks seized power in a coup, rather than the glorious revolution of Soviet propaganda, but you cannot say it was without popular support.
@Geminid:
I for one am very worried about the aftermath should the theocratic regime fall, followed by power vacuum & anarchy. Not that I wish the the regime to persist, that is for the Iranians to decide, but we will all live with the aftermath, most of all the Iranians. Remember the heady days of the Arab Spring? Look at the years hence.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: The aftermath of a fall of the Islamic Republic could be very problematic indeed. Hopefully a general unity around principles of civil rights and democracy will result in a popularly elected and effective government.
It’s possible that leaders who’ve been under house arrest since 2009 can play a role in a provisional government. There might even be among the security forces a Persian version of General Monck, who brokered the instatement of Charles II when England’s Commonwealth failed, and then pulled back from politics.
I’m not saying here that Prince Reza Pahlavi will return; he has a following among expatriates but it is unlikely he’ll play much of a role. But one posssible scenario is that military leaders may recognize that a successful revolution is inevitable, and step in to help put the Islamic Republic down. They could leverage their influence to obtain their own “Act of Oblivion” that protects their persons and wealth.
It’s true that English politics of the 1660s seem far removed from Iranian politics of the 2020s, but so do French politics of the 1790s and Russian politics of 1917. The outcome in Iran will be conditioned by new dynamics as well as old ones.
charon
@way2blue:
The prophet Mohammed appears to have had a hair fetish and wrote or said something to the effect that modest women cover their hair. So a religious thing for people who take anything said by the prophet as controlling.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: We have the much more recent precedents of the Arab Spring, most of the protests movements were initially leaderless. The one in Egypt brought the Muslim Brotherhood to power, & ultimately ended in a military coup.
If the military/elements of IRGC bow to the inevitable & puts down the theocratic regime, we are more likely to end up w/ a military junta. At the very least, any new civilian government will be beholden to the men w/ guns, & easily overthrown if it fails to quickly deliver economic (hard under the current macro environment) & social advancement (much easier, but may enrage conservative elements if proceeded too quickly).
Perhaps such a junta would not be as irreconcilably hostile to Israel & the West, not as bent on closing to the nuclear threshold, is willing to loosen up on the social restrictions, & will sacrifice some of the fat cats of the old regime to appease the masses (despite being fat cats themselves). Maybe that is the best realistic outcome, the next stage in a long & arduous journey toward a better future. Much will also depend on if the US, Russia, Turkey, Israel & the Sunni Gulf States refrain from meddling.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: This is a very interesting discussion. I do believe that comparisons to the Arab Spring are inapt, for cultural and national reasons, and that there are likely more resilient institutions in Iran that could both forestall collapse/civil war and animate a more moderate (but hardy un-Islamic) government following the overthrow of the current regime by some set of security/military forces.
I think the Junta idea is about right, and probably not the worst outcome available. A democratic Iran in this decade is almost certainly too much to hope for.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: No comparison will be perfectly apt. Iran being a civilizational state (as opposed to arbitrarily drawn lines on the Sykes-Picot map) means that any anarchy/civil war is unlikely to permanently tear it asunder, & it will eventually reemerge again as a civilizational state at some point, though perhaps w/ changes at the margins. However, that does not preclude a period of anarchy & civil war. What mitigates against a civil war is that I don’t think the local power centers in Iran are strong, unlike Russia (in 1917 or 2022) or China (in 1911), but you could see violent separatist movements in border regions, financed by Turkey, Iraqi Kurds, or the Gulf States.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: One difference between Iran and the Arab Spring countries is Iran’s modernity. It was devloping a good industrial base before the mullahs directed it towards military ends. The population is educated, both formally through schooling and informally through the information revolution brought by the Internet.
Unlike the situations wwith the Arab Spring countries, Iran’s economy has a large upside. The nation is wealthy in terms of oil and gas deposits as well as human capital. An end to the Islamic Republic would result in economic progress, I think. Just agreeing to the new JCPOA would bring sanctions relief, and only freeze an expensive program that is of dubious benefit anyway.
Gin & Tonic
I know far too little about Iran to offer meaningful commentary, but for a (largely) leaderless popular revolution that caused a change in government for the better, we need not look further than Ukraine’s 2013-14 “Revolution of Dignity” (since these nightly threads are nominally about Ukraine anyway.)
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Isn’t the dynamic that forced positive changes in Ukraine post-2014 the existential threat posed by Russia, imposing some discipline on politics & engendered greater national unity? Also, Yanukovich & his clique did not have total control over every aspect of Ukrainian government at all levels. When he fled, there was still the civil service, the army, & the regional governments holding things together until a new election could be held. The entire polity did not collapse & have to be rebuilt from scratch. If the theocratic regime falls in Iran, there will be a massive power vacuum, & such vacuum is typically filled 1st by hard, brutal & cynical men.
The same applies should the CCP regime fall in China. There are no alternative sources of power & organization ready to step in & quickly fill the vacuum. The regime has thoroughly ensured such organized alternatives would not emerge,.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: While Iranian Kurdish resistance groups find santuary in Iraqi Kurdistan, I think the Iraqi Kurds would steer clear of supporting a separatist movement in Iranian Kurdish provinces. Iraqi Kurds have enjoyed an unprecedented autonomy ever since the 1stGulf War, but they are not entirely secure. Their biggest existential threat is a joint effort by the Iraqi and Iranian states to conquer them militarily. Their safest play is to support recognition of Kurdish rights by the Iranian government, at most some form of limited autonomy.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: Well, Russia has been an existential threat to Ukraine for most of the last 800 years, so while 2014 sharpened the point, that certainly wasn’t a brand-new phenomenon. It is true that Yanukovych and his party did not control all the levers of government, so there was underlying functional stability. But, as I recall a smart commenter writing somewhere “no comparison will be perfectly apt.”
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: You are right about the economic potential of Iran, but a lot depends on the macro environment, & right now things are precarious all around. If these protests were taking place in the late 90s or early aughts, during the height of the globalization wave, I would be more confident of a positive outcome. Alas, much of the world has taken a more protectionist, nativist, nationalistic & securitized turn.
Unless one already has strong liberal institutions & stable government (such as Norway), rich endowment in natural resources is rarely a blessing to a developing country w/ weak institutions. They become satrapies of oligarchs, & temptations for intervention by regional & global powers.
If a new government find itself on shaky ground due to strong economic headwinds, it will be awfully tempted to play the nationalist card to sustain legitimacy, even a nominally democratic government, & the nuclear program is the ultimate nationalist trump card.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: You are right about the Iraqi Kurds. I think they were somewhat standoffish from the YPG in Syria, at least overtly.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: The Iraqi Kurds know they walk a tightrope, and they will do only do so much to help their brethren in Syria, Iran and Turkiye.
I left the latter nation out as an existential threat to Iraqi Kurdistan. Even with US assistance, the three provinces of Iraqi Kurdistan would not be able to withstand an assault from Turkiye, Iran, and Iraq’s central government. But as long as the Iraqi Kurdish regional government does not threaten the security interests of Turkiye, that country will be happy to maintain its substantial trade ties and support.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Frankly, I have been surprised at Ukraine’s progress post-2014. I hadn’t followed development there at all until the current invasion, & like Putin my impression of Ukraine & especially its military was still stuck in 2014. After all, the Orange Revolution didn’t seem to move things forward much.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Not long after February 24, retired US general Mark Hertling wrote an article for The Bulwark about Ukraine’s army and its evolution from before 2014 up to the second Russian invasion this year. Hertling links to the article in the pinned tweet atop his Twitter feed, and its a very good read.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: I have read it. Good read indeed!
Ixnay
@Torrey: Weirdo, to me, has a spot on Bob Denver vibe to it. Gilligan as Putin in the biopic!
StringOnAStick
@YY_Sima Qian: I read the book “Reading Lolita in Tehran”, by a female Iranian literature professor who had to switch from being a college professor at a university to holding clandestine classes in her home after the Iranian revolution. Her description of pre-revolutionary life, the terror of the Shah’s regime and the hopes of the average person were searing, as was the realization that lurking in the protests were the religious fundamentalists who were organized enough to grab control in the immediate chaos once the Shah fell. I am hoping that such relatively recent experience with what can and did happen will be instructive, though the demographics lean towards those who were not born yet when the religious fundamentalists took power.
Gin & Tonic
@Ixnay: The original Ukrainian word most definitely does *not* have a Gilligan vibe.
YY_Sima Qian
@StringOnAStick: Thanks, I will have to check the book out.