The Ukrainians sent two convoys of grain afloat from Odesa after Russia pulled out of the grain shipment agreement. Not only has Putin not done anything to those convoys, but Russia also reentered the grain export agreement. Part of the reentry to the agreement is to make it appear like Russia has some control here. With the two convoys that Ukraine sent this week outside of the agreement, it was clear that Russia does not, in fact, have control. The other part of the reentry is that Putin had been stealing significant amounts of Ukrainian grain and reselling it as Russian under the auspices of the agreement. You can’t continue your organized criminal activity under cover of the agreement if you’re not part of the agreement.
There is an important lesson here for the US and our EU and NATO allies. Putin doesn’t escalate if you stand up to him. He basically deflates and then (tries to) manipulate. The outstanding question is whether this lesson will be learned in DC, as well as the EU and NATO capitols.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!
Today, we have a significant diplomatic outcome for our country and the whole world – the Grain Export Initiative will continue being implemented. Russian blackmail has led nowhere.
The UN and Secretary General Guterres personally responded in a principled and effective way. The President of Türkiye, Erdoğan, also participated. Other key international actors also made timely and fair steps.
Once again, everyone saw that there is only one threat to global food security in our region, and that is the Russian Federation, and no one else.
This entire situation was immediately reflected in the stock exchanges’ indicators – we see some decrease in the price of both wheat and corn. Every time Russian blackmail intensifies, food prices rise. And every time the world does not give in to blackmail, foodstuffs become cheaper. And if there was no Russian attack on Ukraine, there wouldn’t even be a phantom threat of the global food crisis. Because every Russian missile that hits our ports, grain storage facilities, and power plants that power our agricultural production ultimately affects the standard of living of tens of millions of people in many countries. This includes Egypt, Algeria, Somalia, Sudan, Lebanon, Bangladesh, India, China, Indonesia, Vietnam… This year they overpaid tens of billions of dollars for food – and only because of Russia, only because of crazy Russian aggression that destabilizes international trade.
Today, I spoke with President Erdoğan, in particular, about the security of the grain corridor and the Black Sea in general, about the work of the Crimea Platform, about the return of Ukrainian prisoners of war and political prisoners – we remember each and every one who is in captivity, we will release everyone.
We also talked in detail about constant Russian provocations, about Iranian drones, about missile strikes by the Russian army. For example, this morning a Russian plane launched cruise missiles near Snake Island, and they actually flew over the grain corridor routes. And every such Russian launch – and they are almost daily – directly threatens food exports. And it is the partners’ responsibility to work together to reduce the Russian threat.
I held a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief today. The agenda of the meeting is quite obvious. This is the situation on the front lines, in particular in Donetsk region, where the fiercest fighting is going on.
By the way, I want to commend the fighters of the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade and the 79th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade for their steadfastness in repelling enemy attacks right there, in Donetsk region. It is especially difficult there these days – dozens of Russian attacks every day. Our guys are standing firm and not giving up a centimeter. This is true heroism. And I thank everyone who defends our Donetsk region!
Of course, we also discussed the situation in other areas at the meeting: Kharkiv region, Luhansk region, the south of the country, the situation on our borders. We are strengthening our positions everywhere and working towards the key goal – the complete liberation of the entire Ukrainian land.
I held talks with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain – he was in Ukraine today.
I thanked Spain for the new defense aid package for our country. We discussed what could further strengthen our defense. In particular, we are working together with Spain to really provide an air shield for Ukraine.
And it is very nice that today famous and talented historian Timothy Snyder became the new ambassador of our charity platform UNITED24. His name is well known in Ukraine. He is one of those who consistently defends the historical truth about Ukrainians and explains to the world why Ukraine is important.
Now that Mr. Snyder has joined the fundraising effort to strengthen our anti-drone defense, he will focus on the Shahed Hunter project.
I am sure that when we together provide Ukraine with reliable protection against this partnership – the Russian and Iranian regimes – it will be one of the strongest pages of our state history.
And one more thing I would like to pay attention to.
You probably heard today that the Kremlin is saying that they demanded security guarantees from Ukraine. We should think for a moment about their statements. Two hundred fifty two days ago Russia demanded security guarantees from the United States of America. After eight months of Russia’s so-called “special operation,” the Kremlin is demanding security guarantees from Ukraine.
These are really striking changes. This shows both the failure of Russian aggression and how strong you and I are when we remain united. Millions of Ukrainian men and women who fight and work for our freedom. And millions of people around the world who help us resist Russian terror. Together we will ensure the defeat of the terrorist state and its punishment for terror. And we guarantee that all of Ukraine is and will be free.
Eternal glory to all our heroes!
Eternal memory to all those who gave their lives for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Izium and Kherson:
IZIUM AXIS /1230 UTC 2 NOV/ UKR continues to interdict RU traffic on P-66 HWY. UKR air defense downs Russian Su-25 aircraft, Orlan-10 and Kyb UAVs. Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses airstrikes, and artillery, neutralize RU SAM sites. pic.twitter.com/nNGNDXe7Q4
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 2, 2022
KHERSON CITY/2 NOV/ UKR Partisans & deeply inserted SOF identified an S-300 SAM complex at the Kherson football stadium. This battery had been modified to bombard civilian areas of Mykolaiv. Provided with targeting data UKR precision strike neutralized the S-300 and its crew. pic.twitter.com/RAca940Nkp
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 3, 2022
KHERSON/1200 UTC 2 NOV/ RU is reported to have evacuated its occupation administration from Kherson. UKR troops captured an intact and abandoned Russian R-149MA1 brigade command vehicle. Artillery destroyed a Russian OSA-AKM, and a SEAD strike took out a Pantsir S-1 SAM complex. pic.twitter.com/szYQ5SHLEF
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) November 2, 2022
As you can see from the two assessments of Kherson made twelve hours apart, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces and, most likely, Ukrainian partisans, have been very busy!
Speaking of Putin deflating and trying to manipulate:
In damage control mode after being humiliated by Erdogan and Zelensky, Putin tries to say that Ukraine promised not to attack Russian ships that are raining missles on the country (Ukraine did not promise this at all). pic.twitter.com/NNz3OUZ46X
— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) November 2, 2022
Anyone who believes Putin’s whiny, self pitying excuse is an idiot.
What’s Ukraine’s air defense doing?
Anti-aircraft defense of the Air Force of Ukraine sends greetings to the occupiers 😁
🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine!
☠️ Death to enemies! pic.twitter.com/m8bPYphrNE— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) October 19, 2022
That pretty much sums it up!
Yesterday we noted that Iran is preparing to ship rockets and missiles to Russia so the latter can use them against Ukraine. Today CNN reports that the US has alleged that the DPRK has been shipping weapons to Russia and actively trying to hide the evidence.
WashingtonCNN —The US is accusing North Korea of secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells for the Ukraine war by concealing where they are being transported to, according to newly declassified intelligence.
US officials believe that the surreptitious North Korean shipments – along with drones and other weaponry that Russia has acquired from Iran – are further evidence that even Moscow’s conventional artillery arsenals have dwindled during eight months of combat. North Korea is trying to hide the shipments by making it appear as if the ammunition is being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa, the intelligence says.
The recent intelligence comes about two months after the US intelligence community said that it believed Russia was in the process of buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use on the battlefield, CNN and other outlets reported at the time.
“In September, the (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) publicly denied that it intended to provide ammunition to Russia,” the National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said in a statement to CNN. “However, our information indicates that the DPRK is covertly supplying Russia’s war in Ukraine with a significant number of artillery shells, while obfuscating the real destination of the arms shipments by trying to make it appear as though they are being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa.”
Officials did not provide evidence to support the new allegations. The declassified intelligence also did not provide details about how many weapons are part of the shipments, or how they would be paid for.
“We will continue to monitor whether these shipments are received,” Kirby said, noting that Russia has continued to look to actors like North Korea and Iran to sustain its aggressive war in Ukraine “amid supply shortages and the efficacy of international sanctions.”
More at the link!
As of right now, which is 8:15 PM EDT, there are no new posts on Patron’s official Twitter or TikTok accounts. So here’s some older material:
Patron the Dog is at our service here pic.twitter.com/gjRqikNJWZ
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 5, 2022
Someone is apparently writing Patron into lyrics!
Yet another bouncing track of Ukrainian wartime music by Yoxden – perfect to boost morale during the war!
You look like cheese
You smell
Full of holes
Ugh!Patron the Dog is unleashed
Hold on kitties
Patron the Dog is on the walk
You're doomed russkieshttps://t.co/eI40ePcolu— Kyiv Backstage. War & Society in Ukraine (@IvanDeinekoUA) October 24, 2022
Here’s a machine translation of the lyrics:
Song text Kolaba & Yoxden – Patron the dog DANCE (Lyric Video)
Intro: He is a terrible dream for the orcs
His name is the dog – “Patron”
On February 24, the dog “Patron” surrounded the column orks
We remember, we rejoice…
First verse: At night, the occupiers have a terrible dream (va)
Every day they fly by helicopter to Kherson
Everything is going according to plan in Chornobayivka, everyone is waiting (we are waiting)
Don’t forget tickets and flowers for the Kobzon concert Bridge:
Ra-ta -ta-ta-ta-ta Pee-pi-pi-ra-pa-pa
Patron is going for a walk
Hold on kittens
Ra-ta-ta-ta-ta-ta Pee-pi-pi-ra-pa-pa
Patron is going for a walk
You dog Dance guys
Second verse:
ZSU water on your lips with sausage
It’s because you came here with your Ossian sausage
But now, by the way, you remind me of siiir
Because you smell and you have a lot of holes (ph)
Bridge:
Okay then…
In case your interested, I’ll just repost Patron’s appeal for support:
Bad news days. Mines blew up many sappers: some died, and some are in hospitals. I’m personally acquainted with several of them. I feel like I'm not doing enough to keep them alive. We need more equipment and armored vehicles… @U24_gov_ua , @TarasChmut , please help me to help pic.twitter.com/pJ33cPfQA5
— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 26, 2022
And we’ll finish with some other music:
You were expecting Mozart?
Open thread!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
That is such an awesome stamp at the top.
I was wondering if Putin was going to try anything or not. I’m glad he folded like a cheap suit here. I wonder how his rivals feel about this backing down he often does when confronted?
Alison Rose
LOL putin is so fucking lame. And yet we have people in this country practically begging to lick his boots. To paraphrase some philosopher on this blog (because it ended up as a rotating tag), if Republicans had the capacity to feel shame, they’d die of it.
I would imagine the Ukrainian government is doing their best to get the US, EU, NATO, etc, to understand exactly what you’ve said here, Adam. I wonder if it will finally get through to some of TPTB.
That Patron song is a banger. I presume human-translated lyrics might make slightly more sense, but I don’t really care :)
Thank you as always, Adam.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Bleeding edge air defense used as a 40’s era V2
I suppose there is no point in attacking something that is sunk or out of ammo.
How bust ass do you have to be the North Koreans have to help you?
Hopefully this convey deal is a sign that Putin is waking up to he needs to get Russia out of this mess created he for it. At this point the deaths and injuries on both sides are war crime on Putin’s head because there is no point to any of this voilance now.
Andrya
Thanks be to G-d. I had been wondering if putin was a conniving, rational, avaricious dictator, or Hitler in March/April 1945- “if I can’t win, bring the world around me down to utter destruction”. (Ref: the Nero Decree.) Bottom line: putin is not Hitler, he’s a cowardly, money grubbing bureaucrat. He’s not going to blow up the world, because he only cares about money (for him), mansions, and yachts. He plans to die in bed (or maybe hopes to bribe G-d to let him live forever).
oldster
Good news: this weakened Putin, both inside Russia (the Telegram crowd are furious) and outside Russia.
Bad news: it shows the rising power of Erdogan.
I do not think that Erdogan is as dangerous or as evil as Putin is (inter alia, he probably has no nukes). During some aspects of this war, he has been a force for good.
But I do not trust him. He is already playing power-broker with the Bayraktars. And his power over the Black Sea means that even after Ukraine recovers Crimea, Erdogan will still have coercive power over Ukraine‘s access to the Mediterranean.
I understand why it‘s better to have him inside of NATO than not. But of all the NATO countries, he is currently running the most ambitious, aggressive foreign policy. He is striving to be a major power in an important part of the world. And have I mentioned that I don‘t trust him?
HinTN
@Andrya: Yep, and as bonkers as it is, we should be very thankful for that fact.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose:
Not as long as Jake Sullivan is the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (National Security Advisor).
Andrya
@oldster: I agree, even though I was glad that Erdogan helped Ukraine to break the grain shipment blockade.
My extended family includes Jews, Hispanics, and Kurds, as well as European ancestry. Erdogan inherited a situation where the antagonism between Kurds and Turks had been resolved, and ramped up Turkish anti-Kurdish sentiment to seize power (very similar to TFG using racism). Turkey, formerly secular, now discriminates against Baha’is, Christians, and former Muslims, as well as Kurds. Erdogan is moral scum, but I can still be happy that he totally pwn’d even worse moral scum. (Analogy: Awful though Stalin was, I’m still glad the USSR took the lead to defeat Nazi Germany.)
Geminid
From today’s Kyiv Post:
Turkiye also has a large air force that includes 308 F-16 fighter jets and 46 bombers, as well as refueling tankers, transport aircraft, and 120 attack helicopters. Most of the F-16s were manufactured in Turkey by Turkish Aerospace Industries, under license.
Shalimar
Putin using THREE body doubles who have gone under the knife to look like him | World | News | Express.co.uk
MomSense
Patron shouldn’t be allowed to skip posting for a day. I’m too worried for him. Ugh
YY_Sima Qian
Putin didn’t even threaten to mine the sea approaches to Odesa, or make any claims to have done so. Clearly shows how weak his position truly is. Not only is Russia now a junior partner to China, it is becoming a junior partner to Turkey & India!
sdhays
@oldster: Minor point, but due to geography, Türkiye already has “coercive power” over anyone’s access to the Mediterranean (or to the Black Sea, for that matter).
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: Do you have thoughts on why that is? I don’t know much about him at all. It’s aggravating because it seems so simple and obvious what the right thing to do is, though I realize that’s from my perspective as a civilian with no diplomatic or military experience. But it is frustrating to hear the nice sentiments of support and then this brick wall when it comes to certain crucial aspects.
bbleh
So Putin is biznesman, not just tyrant. Offer him a sweetener, deals can be made.
(Gee, who else does this sound like? On the tip of my tongue …)
It is useful information, in more ways than one.
oldster
On a more cheerful note, I am delighted and amazed that the UA airforce is able to run successful SEAD missions against Russian AA batteries (per Chuck Pfarrer).
On day 1 of this war, it seemed obvious that the Russians would first demolish the Ukrainian airforce — it‘s SOP, it‘s what the US would do in the parallel situation. But from that same first day, Russia has never enjoyed air superiority. UA planes still fly missions
Running SEAD is even more impressive in a way, because it puts your avionics up against their best radar and targeting. Which means: it puts decades-old Ukrainian gear up against the most up-to-date equipment that Russia has. And they‘re still winning.
Has the US helped to make this happen? I‘m sure that we‘ve helped here and there. We certainly helped by persuading the UA military leadership that the invasion was real and was going to happen. That‘s part of why they dispersed their Air Force for survivability. Are we helping now with electronics? I have no idea. I hope so.
sdhays
@Geminid: Russia’s Black Sea is struggling against Ukraine’s non-existent navy. The idea that they would want to risk a Turkish naval response is just ludicrous. Not “inconceivable”, because this is Russia, after all, but ludicrous nonetheless.
oldster
@sdhays:
Oh, I realize alright. We had maps back in my day, too.
What worries me is that it is increasingly unclear to me that the US has any leverage at all over Erdogan. We need him more than he needs us. If he needs us at all. That‘s not a strategic relation I feel comfortable with.
Bill Arnold
@Alison Rose:
Are you talking about long-range (well, longer/intermediate range) missiles?
If the Russians start using Iranian ballistic missiles, the pressure to supply longer-range missiles will increase. Probably with one camp (fearful of very kinetic (I00 million degrees Kelvin) WWIII) arguing for some sort of geofencing of missiles supplied to Ukraine, either technically (if possible) or with assurances or both, boundaries to be negotiated. Problem for the restrainer camp is that Russia is launching long range missiles from well within(above) Russian territory. They are not showing any restraint in this regard.
The long-range Iranian drones were also a major escalation, though the response to that could be longer range drones/cruise missiles, and/or assistance (e.g. parts) with production of longer-range Ukrainian weapons.
oatler
from “No Peace No End” by R Thompson:
Geneva Convention they use as a pessary
Olive branch is a fashion accessory
In the big chess game there’s just one winner
And it’s always somebody else
Bill Arnold
@oldster:
Fairly sure that there are some methods of soft leverage available. Also, he’s a bit cult-leader-ish politically.
I share your worries.
Tony G
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): “Putin doesn’t escalate if you stand up to him.” One of the oldest stories in the world: A bully is a coward. I hope that the “Progressive Caucus” in the U.S. House of Representatives will take note — but I doubt that they will. Instead they’ll move on to their next media performance. I can understand (though I don’t agree with) people that get so fed up with politicians that they don’t bother to vote.
Jay
Tony G
@YY_Sima Qian: Russia, under Putin’s leadership, may soon become a junior partner to Kazakhstan and Mongolia.
Anoniminous
@Tony G:
US politics can be quickly summed-up in the old story:
“Where you going Mike?”
“Down to Flanagans to shoot some craps.”
“Flanagans!! Don’t you know those games are rigged?”
“Yes, but it’s the only game in town.”
StringOnAStick
I have to wonder just how much cachet Russia arms technology has lost now that Ukraine has continued to best them. Must be a lot harder demanding top dollar (rouble?) on the international arms market, even from warlords who have to better hide their sources. All those buyers want stuff that keeps owners of similar stuff from thinking you’re beatable. Oh well, invisible hand and all that.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: I’ve found that who we would’ve called conservative nat-sec folks are the most liberal in their willingness to use national power to achieve strategic objectives in the global system. The ones we’d call liberal or progressive tend to be the most conservative in regard to doing so. With a few exceptions on either side,
Geminid
@oldster: Ukraine and Turkiye have had good political and economic relations since Ukraine’s independence. Their cooperation in the aerospace field includes a joint venture to produce Bayraktar drones in Ukraine. The factory was one of Russia’s first bombing targets early in the war. They also have agreed on a billion dollar project to build orbital launch vehicles. I imagine that is on hold for now.
Last month Ukraine’s First Lady and the head of its navy traveled to an Istanbul shipyard for the christening of the corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa, one of several Ukraine has on order from Turkiye. The ship still needs to be fitted out and won’t be delivered until 2024, but Ukraine’s Defense Minister has already designated the Mazepa’s home port: Sevastopol.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: Turkey is suffering from hyper-inflation. On the one hand, that means the EU has some economic leverage over Turkey (China too, which is likely why Turkey has suddenly gone quiet on the Uyghurs in Xinjiang over the past year). OTOH, it might also mean that Erdogan will look for foreign policy adventures to divert domestic dissatisfaction.
Jay
@oldster:
NATO have been providing ground launched and air launched AARM’s to the Ukrainian Military for a while now.
AARM’s can be directed extremely accurately towards any radio signal like Radar’s.
Recently, I saw a post of a UAF release showing tracking of a Russian MIG deep in Russian controlled Ukraine, which suggests that either the UAF had gotten better, (safer) at using Soviet era radars, or have gotten better sensors.
A key aspect of the NATO air defences supplied to Ukraine are “better” radars and sensors.
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: Interesting, and frustrating.
Anonymous At Work
@Bill Arnold: Edrogan doesn’t want to end up like Putin and his country doesn’t have the oil reserves or military to hold out like Putin. Edrogan only has leverage within NATO if he’s willing to veto new members and only Hungary (under openly fascist leadership and beholden to Putin) would back Edrogan up, mostly as a mutual-suicide pact.
And as long as the Kurds are our allies of sorts in the Middle East, the US has leverage over Turkey. Granting recognition to Kurdistan or removing PKK from terror watch list would make more than a few people crap minarets (pardon the obscenity but they would).
oldster
@Geminid:
Thanks, I had not known that stuff.
Eolirin
@Alison Rose: In most situations this is a good instinct, I think. This is just not most situations.
Jay
Anonymous At Work
How much is Putin gambling that the US election on November 8th and the subsequent new Congress on Jan 3rd will pull the plug on Ukrainian funding? His strategy seems to be “I have more bodies than you have bullets.” That *can* work but only in extreme circumstances and only if the Ukrainians give up. Going into this without a strategy makes me wonder what Putin’s ceiling will be.
Dan B
@Jay: This reads like Boris and Natasha level of incompetence. It’s a comedy of errors except the outcome is horrifying levels of disinformation.
Jay
Jay
Geminid
@Tony G: I guess you are referencing that letter about Ukraine sent and retracted last week. I would point out that it wasn’t the Progressive Caucus that sent it, but rather 30 of its members. And some of them were surprised to see their signatures attached to a new version of a draft they last saw over two months before. As far as I know, the other 67 or so Progressive Caucus members had nothing to do with this.
Jay
Anoniminous
@Adam L Silverman:
At least Biden is making sure Ukraine has some of the weapons & etc. they need. Roosevelt blocked the export of wool to Spain because it might be used for military purposes.
Eolirin
@Geminid: From my understanding, that thing was never supposed to be released. 30 members signed onto something in July, when circumstances were quite different, and then decided not to go forward with it. Some staffer(s) then released it without authorization months later and the WaPo posted a very misleading story about it. At least that’s the story they’re telling.
Jay
@Geminid:
@Tony G:
https://progressives.house.gov/2022/10/congressional-progressive-caucus-chair-statement-on-ukraine-letter
apparently the Caucus did not release the letter, instead it was “staffers” affiliated to a Consultancy/Think Tank, with out their knowledge.
Jay
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: It was published on their letterhead, and Pramila Jayapal was publicly crowing about it within an hour. Spare me the excuses.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: Mining Odesa would have been an open invitation to the Ukrainians to make some simple modifications to their drone navy, and mine the approaches to Sevastopol. A straight-up own-goal.
Steve in the ATL
@YY_Sima Qian: so are there deals to be had in turkey these days? I love currency arbitrage!
Tony G
@Jay: Yeah, I read about that, but I’m not impressed by that excuse. They signed the letter and they hired the staffers and (presumably) supervised the staffers. Blaming “the staffers” is, in my opinion, deeply irresponsible. I was in a (low-level) technical supervisory position for ten years in a hospital I.T. department. If one of my crew screwed up (it rarely happened) then I took the blame because I had hired, trained and supervised the person who screwed up, and I therefore should have prevented the screw-up. I realize that that letter is already a couple of news-cycles ago, but it continues to annoy me for two reasons: 1) The Russian invasion of and war crimes in Ukraine is a deeply important struggle between fascism and anti-fascism. 2) I have generally supported on most issues the “progressives” in that caucus and it just annoys me that they chose to succumb to the worst rhetoric of the so-called-left. They should get off my lawn!
Cameron
Erdogan seems to keep a lot of irons in the fire – apparently things are heating up vs. Cyprus and Greece.
Tony G
@Geminid: Yeah, I read that. That means that the “Caucus” is poorly organized and lacks discipline. Again, I’m frustrated because I largely support the “Progressive Caucus” on most issues. If thirty members chose to embarrass the other members then throw them the hell out. The draft of the letter is the same both-siderism about the war in Ukraine that I’ve read from idiots like Media Benjamin. It just annoys the hell out of me.
Another Scott
@oldster: Erdogan is way, way out over his skis.
EuroNews.com (from 10/5):
The banksters eventually come calling…
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Eolirin: I have questions about that letter, but I think Democrats were right not to air this affair out so close to the election. Hopefully after the midterms Democratic Representatives will be more willing to expose how this matter went down,especially the role Caucus Chair Jayapal and the caucus staff played.
The caucus website and Twitter account enthusiastically promoted the letter as soon as it became public, while the members who ostensibly signed it seemed taken by surprise.
This was an effort by less than a third of the caucus, but you wouldnt know that from the staff’s pronouncements. They also highlighted the contributions to the letter made by four advocacy groups, one of which- MoveOn.org- immediately disclaimed participation.
Carlo Graziani
This Zelenskyy-ism had me do a double-take, then learn a little physical geography. I did not know that Ukraine is not, in fact, completely bereft of mountains. In the south-west corner of the country, a patch of the Carpathian range is in fact tucked away. Not sure who or what that Mountain Assault Brigade would assault there, but evidently they’ve found good use of their highland skills in the plains near Donetsk.
Steve in the ATL
@Another Scott: so what do I buy when I’m over there? Locally produced stuff, I assume.
Gin & Tonic
@Steve in the ATL: Baklava. Lots of baklava.
Steve in the ATL
@Gin & Tonic: indeed! But does it travel well? What about carpets or jewelry?
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: I’ve gone skiing in the Ukrainian Carpathians. They’re not the Dolomites, but there is decent vertical.
Gin & Tonic
@Steve in the ATL: Baklava travels very well. And you can’t eat carpet.
Geminid
@Jay: I don’t think that’s the whole story, and the source obviously is self interested. At the time, Democrats wanted to mitigate this affair’s impact because the midterms were approaching. I expect that a number of Democratic House members know the real story though, and that it will come out after the election.
Randal Sexton
@Adam L Silverman: This has piqued my curiosity – is this guy Jake Sullivan someone who should be paid attention to ?
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
Please cite Representative Jaypal “crowing” about the Ukraine Letter,……..
Jay
@Tony G:
the letter was written when there was a stalemate in Ukraine and NATO aid was just starting to arrive. At the time, to a lot of people, it seemed that a ceasefire was a possible option.
Look today at the number of people who still think you can cut a deal with Putin.
Carlo Graziani
I would like to know why Pfarrer is pesuaded that the targeting information on that S-300 came from “UKR Partisans and deeply-inserted SOF.”
For one thing, which is it, Partisans or SOF? There is a difference. Pfarrer’s description is characteristically vague, as it usually is when he’s guessing. More to the point, however, on September 15, the US announced a $600M security assistance package, using Presidential Drawdown authority, which included “four counter-artillery radars.” This seems like exactly the sort of mission for which those radars are designed, and a much more plausible guess.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnieper%E2%80%93Carpathian_offensive
BTW, did you see the footage of the Russian “ferries*” being hit by artillary in Kherson,………
*(they are actually surviving parts of the pontoon bridge that Russia built and Ukraine blew up, “warped” along by small craft or retrofitted with outboards)
Geminid
@Randal Sexton: Well, Jake Sullivan is the National Security Advisor, and heads a very large staff. He has no operational authority, but people are supposed to pay attention to him even if they don’t have to do what he says
I thought Sullivan did well in July when he briefed reporters on the upcoming transfers of Iranian attack drones to Russia. There was a lot of scepticism at the time, and some people thought Sullivan was just trying to distract from issues raised by the President’s immanent trip to the Middle East. But it turned out to be a timely and accurate heads up.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: Sadly the CPC web page and Jayapal’s Twitter have been scrubbed. And I’m not going to waste my time on the Wayback Machine. But we both know she was happy to push the letter until the shit hit the fan.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
AN/TPQ-36,
“Its maximum range is 15 miles (24 km) with an effective range of 11 miles (18 km) for artillery and 15 miles (24 km) for rockets. Its azimuth sector is 90°. ”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPQ-36_Firefinder_radar
Many of the strikes against Russian Air defences are beyond the range of the counter battery radars sent to Ukraine.
A key role of SOF since WWII is to advise and train partisan groups, so at this time, it’s unclear if the more effective strikes are SOF, Partisans, or SOF/Partisan groups.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
and apparently all the news media sites were scrubbed as well,…….
bookworm1398
Cynical me notes that someone with foreknowledge of Russian statements could have made a lot of money in grain futures last week.
From Turkey, buy Turkish delight. Ceramics with the distinctive blue patterns. Antiques if you have some knowledge of that different ones are worth. And a drone to guard it all
Geminid
@bookworm1398: And if you are in the market for fighter jets, you can buy F-16s. Egypt bought 48 from Turkish Aerospace Industries. Gotta have a permit, though.
Geminid
@Jay: I think leadership sent the word out to House Democrats not to talk about the letter for now, so as to tamp down “Dems in disarray” stories. People will “spill the tea” after the election though.
Lyrebird
This machine translation line:
But now, by the way, you remind me of siiir
Is probably
But now, by the way, you remind me of cheeeeese
VOR
I suspect quality control on North Korean artillery ammunition is poor. This will impede accuracy and payload effectiveness.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Circumstantially, it appears that Ukrainian partisans are currently (especially after the HIMARS+GMLRS and M982 Excalibur (155mm) deliveries) most effectively operating as forward observers/artillery observers, taking advantage of advances in civilian encrypted communications – a good and timely and reported observation can call down PGM hellfire that e.g. IEDs usually can’t match. Not going to even think about speculating in public about their OPSEC and/or their interactions with UKR SOF, but the Russians in occupied Ukraine are clearly freaked out.
Geminid
@Carlo Graziani: Why not partisans and SOF? I expect that deeply inserted SOF would work alongside partisans.
I notice that the Institute for the Study of War maps that the Kyiv Post features still has that bluish blob west of Mariupol and between the Dnipro and the Sea of Azov. It’s designated “partisan activity.” I’m guessing this is a nominal location signifying a more widely dispersed presence of partisans and special forces behind the front lines.
Right now they mainly seem to be sneaking around and spotting stuff like that S-300 battery. There could be a fair amount of fighting power there, though, that can be put to use when the time is right.
Frankensteinbeck
@Andrya:
I don’t think it’s either/or. Putin does not seem to be completely irrational. He clearly holds his own life very dear, which is why I haven’t been worried about nukes. He is capable of at least some seeing when he’s beat.
But not much. He is a bully, sociopathic, power-hungry, wildly bigoted, and his dream is to rebuild the Soviet empire with himself at its head. He’s doing a whole lot of irrational shit, flailing and hurting everyone he can reach. He definitely has Hitler ambitions and motivations, more than a businessman’s.
Someone who has studied him closely could probably have predicted every move Russia has made so far. There are clearly patterns. The problem is, the people who have studied him closest are professionally trained to look for and expect the worst possible outcome.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Yes, at the Battle of Chesma in 1774 the Russian Fleet annihilated the Ottoman fleet and turned the Black Sea into a Russian lake, and now that’s over.
How long before there is talk of Russia as the “Sick man of Europe”?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Speaking of Russia and it’s warships, behold the tale of the time Stalin tried to get the US to build the world’s largest battleship for him. This monster really sounds like the Floating Fortresses in 1984.
J R in WV
@Geminid:
While I was in the US Navy way back in the 1970s, we had a port call at our home port by a Turkish frigate, or maybe a cruiser, in either case lots of Turk sailors on liberty in Key West, and not used to alcohol!
On the other hand, they brought a whole lot of hash-type intoxicating substances and we provided beverages. They had drums and their local folk instruments and sang and danced all over the island.
I don’t trust Erdogan but the Turkish peoples seem to be great.
Geminid
@J R in WV: Erdogan is a very controversial figure, both inside Turkiye and out. By the end of the last decade, he’d managed to alienate most of his neighbors, in particular Saudi Arabia and Israel. He was on the outs with the US also, on account of his country’s purchase of Russian anti-aircraft missile systems.
In the last two years, however, Erdogan and his Foreign Minister have turned relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel around. The Saudi Crown Prince visited Turkiye this spring and announced a $10 billion investment in the country. When Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited Turkiye in March, Erdogan praised “a new era of relations” between the two countries, and just last week the Israeli Defense Minister visited his counterpart in Turkiye, the first such meeting in over a decade (Israel and Turkiye used to be strategic allies, but fell out over the Palestinian issue). Erdogan made a point of appearing publically with the two ministers.
Although Turkiye is the one NATO country that has not participated in the sanctions regime against Russia, the US has been very restrained in its criticism. And at the christening of the Turkish-built, Ukrainian warship Hetman Ivan Mazepa in Istanbul last month, Ukrainian first lady Ms. Zelenska generously praised her hosts as if they were her nation’s best friend.
Whether one likes Erdogan or not, Turkiye is the largest Black Sea power, and it along with Israel are the strongest military powers in the Eastern Mediterranean. With over 80 million citizens, a good industrial base and an educated population, Turkiye is also the most economically advanced nation in the Muslim world, even with its current economic difficulties.
Erdogan’s greatest faults may be his stubborness and pride. He is very proud of his nation, and not just because he is in charge. That pride and stubborness could be virtues in the case of the Ukrainian grain shipment program that he and the UN negotiated.
Uncle Cosmo
My sediments exactly. After 17 days in country in ’96 I left with a lot of respect for the Turks. Very hospitable folks. They reminded me of Americans (at least how we used to be) in that whenever they suffered some reversal of fortune, they’d say Inshallah (“god’s will”) & shrug their shoulders, pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and try again – rather than look for someone to blame.
Gold and silver (altın ve gümüş) are readily available, as is turquoise (for obvious reasons). I would avoid gold and the pricier carpets if you’re looking for a bargain – you really, really have to understand what to look for, and unless you’re already an expert (or willing to embark on a crash course) you’re likely to be disappointed (and curse the seller – NB it’s not their responsibility to keep you from paying more than you should for an item due to your own ignorance). Silver jewelry can be very nice and well appreciated and isn’t pricey.
Carpets? When I was in İstanbul there was a government carpet shop cattycornerd from Aya Sofia. Might still be there. Fixed prices but worth going through to get a quick rudimentary education and an idea of topside cost. I would check the carpet shops for kilims, flat-weave carpets that are less expensive and easier to transport but still very attractive.
Other things to look for are leather, ceramics, and silk. Note that in the bazaars, all the shops selling a particular type of good tend to be in the same general area, so you don’t have to scour the whole çarşı.
Bargaining: My advice is to examine everything on offer, If you see something you really like, the seller will always ask, How much would you pay me for that? If you want it, decide right then what it’s worth to you (NB not “what it’s actually worth” which will almost always be a good deal less) factoring in its souvenir value, and offer that price. If it’s accepted, buy it (don’t fuck around with the seller, that’s really bad form – these guys aren’t crooks, they’re businessmen) and don’t beat yourself up if you find something similar the next day at half the cost – it was what it was worth to you at that moment. (I would usually preface my offer with, “I’m not an expert in [item]; I can only tell you what it is worth to me. Even if it’s really worth much more.” And he’d say, “Yeah yeah sure sure, kaç para? [how much?])
Your offer almost surely will not be accepted: he’ll throw up his hands, roll his eyes and exclaim that’s less than he paid for it. Do not budge one lira – if he can move your offer at all, you will be enmeshed in endless rounds of haggling. My usual response was, I wouldn’t ask you to sell it for less than you paid for it, so I guess we have no deal, and thank you for the tea – then shoulder my rucksack and get up to leave. The response is almost always Wait! Wait! – and after he realizes you’re not budging, you’ll almost always get it for your price. (And he will still make a good profit.)
Another strategy: if you want multiple items, offer a price on one of the less pricey, then ask him about throwing in the pieces you really want. Yet another strategy is to go to the market early, identify the things you want, then come back 20 minutes before closing and bid low for the bunch – no one wants to pack up goods only to unpack them the next morning.
In ’96 I bought a regular carpet in Seljuk (& had it shipped, it arrived 3 months later in pristine condition), silver for all my lady friends from a dealer in Ankara who’d spent 20 years in Sydney & spoke Strine, two kilims and some nice ceramics for the house at the Grand Bazaar in İstanbul, and silk ties for my male friends (and myself) from the İpek Han in Bursa. I had to buy a second (cheap) suitcase to ship it all home but it was worth it. Happy shopping!