Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

The choice is between normal and crazy.

If you’re looking for someone who’s young and athletic, go watch a fucking movie.

President Biden is doing good where he can, and getting it done.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Another missed opportunity for Jamie Dimon to just shut the fuck up.

Dead end MAGA boomers crying about Talyor Swift being a Dem is my kind of music. Turn it up.

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

The arc of the moral universe doesn’t bend itself. it’s up to us.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Chutkan laughs. Lauro sits back down.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 263: Protect the Flag!

War for Ukraine Day 263: Protect the Flag!

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If you were wondering how the Ukrainians in Kherson managed to get their hands on Ukrainian flags so quickly once the Russians retreated it is because they protected their flags!

Before we move on, last night Kattails asked if I knew who did the poppy shaped calligraphy I used as the header image on Veterans Day. The artist is Satwinder Sehmi and he did the piece for the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I. Here’s his tweet from 8 NOV 2018:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

It is Sunday today. I’m in my office together with our team. The Office is working, Kyiv doesn’t stop, the country works non-stop. Look around – there are always people fighting and working without weekends for the sake of our victory.

The frontline has no weekends. Rescuers and sappers have no weekends.

Doctors helping the wounded have no weekends. Doctors helping our children have no weekends as well.

Ukrainian energy workers fighting against Iranian drones have no rest.

All our transport workers… truck drivers ensuring both the defense and the rear, Ukrzaliznytsia and all public companies.

Business, which helps. Volunteers we can’t do without. Military enterprises repairing and manufacturing equipment.

Diplomats working almost round the clock for 263 days already… Communication workers, security forces, hundreds and hundreds of other spheres, thousands of organizations and enterprises, millions of people.

All of us already feel the approach of our victory. Because we preserve our unity and know that we are rightfully on our land.

And I thank our commanders, intelligence and everyone involved for working out our next steps. Liberation steps.

Stabilization and restoration of law and order in 226 settlements will be ensured in the Kherson region. This is more than 100,000 local residents as of this time.

We are restoring communication, Internet, television. We are doing everything to restore normal technical capabilities for electricity and water supply as soon as possible.

We will bring back transport and postal services. We will bring back ambulances and normal medicine.

Of course, the restoration of the work of authorities, the police, some private companies is already beginning. And I thank the business, which is among the first to participate in the return of normal life.

Our presence will be felt! It will be felt that there is life.

But please do not forget that the situation in the Kherson region is still very dangerous. First of all, there are mines. Unfortunately, one of our sappers died, and four others were injured while clearing mines.

I urge all residents of Kherson to be very careful and immediately inform the rescuers about all dangerous objects.

Detention of Russian soldiers and mercenaries who were left behind in this territory and neutralization of saboteurs are also ongoing.

Investigators have already documented more than 400 Russian war crimes, the bodies of both civilians and military personnel are being found.

In the Kherson region, the Russian army left behind the same atrocities as in other regions of our country, where it was able to enter.

We will find and bring to justice every murderer. Without a doubt.

The fighting in the Donetsk region is as intense as in previous days. The level of Russian attacks is not decreasing. The level of resilience and bravery of our fighters is the highest. We do not allow our defense to be breached.

I thank each of our warriors for this!

As of now, the territory of five of our regions was hit by missile, air and artillery strikes of the occupiers during the day. These are Sumy region, Kharkiv region, Zaporizhzhia region, Luhansk region, and Donetsk region.

We do everything to make the enemy feel our retaliation. To the maximum.

Along the entire frontline, we ensure the destruction of enemy supply chains, ammunition depots, and enemy headquarters.

We have to reduce the potential of the occupiers every day – without days off! It saves the lives of our people.

And we are already very actively preparing for an important week for Ukraine – diplomatic week.

There will be a G20 summit in Indonesia and our position will be presented.

In a very meaningful way. We will give answers to many questions that are being asked now. Public answers. So that they are heard by all our people, all our partners, everyone who supports us.

Already on Tuesday there will be my address.

I am grateful to everyone who endures this marathon!

I am grateful to everyone who fights and works for our country and freedom for all our people!

I am grateful to everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s today’s updated assessment from Britain’s MOD:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kherson, Bakhmut, and Izium:

Here’s more on the flag protection story:

Here’s the video with subtitles:

The Economist is reporting that donors are putting together a Marshall Plan for Ukraine to get ahead of the reality that is going to exist once the war ends:

THE FIELD next to Grigoriy Tkachenko’s fish pond is littered with spent 220mm rockets. His carp are dead: the Russian soldiers who occupied his farm in March and April fished for them by tossing grenades into the water. Russian shells blew holes in the farm’s new office and its automated milking stall. Mr Tkachenko reckons his losses at roughly $1m, including 158 cows, about half his herd. “The Russians killed them and ate the parts that were easy to butcher,” he says. “They left the rest to rot.”

Yet by mid-October the farm, in Lukashivka, 120km north of Kyiv, was bustling again. In a vast concrete storage shed, forklifts stacked crates of potatoes while workers supervised machines that use lasers to sort the spuds by size. Most of Mr Tkachenko’s fields were free of mines, his wheat, corn and sunflower crops had been harvested, his grain elevator had been fixed and his remaining cows were chomping away in their pens.

Ukraine, like Mr Tkachenko’s farm, is in a state of buzzing confusion. Ukrainians are scrambling to repair what Russia has broken and to keep the economy running. Steel plants pour white-hot metal to make rebar; restaurants serve food to the noise of air-raid sirens. Yet the destruction Vladimir Putin has wrought is immense. Entire cities are in ruins. Some 8m people, a fifth of the population, have fled the country. Ukraine’s government reckons GDP in 2022 will be 30% lower than in 2021. Counting only the damage done before June 1st, the World Bank estimated the costs of reconstruction at $349bn. Since then the bill has risen: for the past month Russian missiles have been smashing up the power grid.

Recovering from all this, Ukraine’s allies think, will require aid comparable to the Marshall Plan, the huge American programme that kickstarted Europe’s economic recovery from the second world war. Indeed, in some ways rebuilding Ukraine seems harder. Unlike the Marshall Plan, which started years after the war ended, aid to Ukraine is flowing while the shells are still flying. That makes attracting private money almost impossible, for now: foreign investment into Ukraine is barely 1% of its level in 2021. With the war slashing tax revenues and half of the government’s budget devoted to the army, Ukraine needs $3.5-5bn in aid every month just to cover its budget deficit.

Another problem is complexity. The Marshall Plan’s money came from America. In Ukraine aid has come mainly from America, but also from the EU, individual European and Asian countries and an array of multilateral institutions—the World Bank, the IMF, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank and others. For the war’s first eight months pledges came sporadically. Only now are the main donors planning regular meetings to co-ordinate.

Sceptics of reconstruction aid to Ukraine note that such funds did little good in war-ravaged Afghanistan and Iraq, or in disaster-struck Haiti. Donors in those places failed to help create functional states, and much of their cash was stolen. This is a big worry for Ukraine, long one of Europe’s most corrupt countries.

But Ukraine is not like Afghanistan or Iraq. There, donors were trying to impose a completely new system of government, which many locals resisted. Ukraine is more like post-war Europe, where an injection of funds helped locals rebuild prosperous, industrialised societies that they already knew how to build, because they had built them before war wrecked them. Ukraine was a democratic and fairly sophisticated middle-income country before the war, and making efforts to tackle graft. It seems plausible that Ukrainians can recreate what they had before and, with help, improve on it.

History offers useful lessons. Although the Marshall Plan is now remembered as a success, things were complicated at the time, says Margaret MacMillan, a historian at Oxford. “There were real strains within [the Marshall Plan], real difficulties, moments when it might have collapsed,” she says. There was bitter disagreement within America’s government over how to structure the programme, and within Congress over whether to fund it at all. European governments and voters were suspicious of the conditions attached to the aid. Only the threat of communism persuaded all sides to overcome their qualms. And though the plan was a success in West Germany, its results in some other countries were mediocre. To understand why it is worth trying to help Ukrainians rebuild, it helps to consider how difficult the Marshall Plan actually was.

Much, much, much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

No new tweet today, but here is a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Класно їдемо під класний трек з @Anton Ptushkin 🤗 #песпатрон #патрондснс

♬ dreams – el

The caption machine translates as:

Cool ride to a cool track with @Anton Ptushkin 🤗 #PatrontheDog #PatronDSNS

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

90Comments

  1. 1.

    MobiusKlein

    Damage  of 349 Billion Dollars as of  June 1 – that boggles the mind.

    Pales in comparison to the price of the arms sent.   The sooner they kick out RU, the less damage done.

  2. 2.

    Another Scott

    Repost from downstairs (with some hashtag links removed):

    Southern Axis Update:

    #Ukrainian officials stated that #Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the #Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in #Melitopol, #Zaporizhia Oblast, and #Mariupol, #Donetsk Oblast. /3

    https://t.co/GGc9qkyMUl

    — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) November 13, 2022

    So much for the triple rows of trenches, etc.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Thanks Adam.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    Oh my, the joy in that lady’s laugh as she unwraps the flag…that was beautiful. What a powerful moment.

    I was not surprised to hear Zelenskyy remind people basically not to try to pick up mines or trip wires or whatnot themselves. Remembering the early days when we would see regular folks just picking up mines and carrying them across the street, cigarettes hanging out of their mouths…it was awesome on the one hand, but also terrifying. Ukrainians aren’t afraid of shit, so I guess a “please we beg you do not touch the bombs” is sometimes necessary.

    Also, “neutralization of saboteurs” is QUITE THE PHRASE. If I were one of those saboteurs and I heard that…I think I’d have imploded on the spot.

    Thank you as always, Adam. It’s been said many times, but you deserve to hear it countless more: The work you do on these posts is invaluable and appreciated beyond words.

  4. 4.

    J R in WV

    Well, I opened this thread, and there were no replies at all… so I waited a few, read more of the tweets, the lady digging up her flag was so moving — tears !!!

    Thanks, Adam, for these reports, so valuable for all of us !!!

  6. 6.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, …

    Protests in Saudi Arabia – GT – “Tens of thousands of people in the city of Qatif, Saudi Arabia, came to the streets last night to protest the execution of eight opponents of the government and chanted “Death to Al Saud”.” https://t.co/79HxvjT9nG

    — Kombiz Lavasany (@kombiz) November 14, 2022

    I was wondering if there was a likelihood that the protests in Iran would spread. KSA has a large Shia population, and there is a history of protests in Qatif against the rulers in Riyadh (Google tells me that Qatif is 90% Shia).

    … gradually and then suddenly.

    (via LOLGOP)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  7. 7.

    dmsilev

    Russian zookeeper kidnaps animals from Kherson, Ukraine says

    Russia’s military has gained a reputation for looting its way across Ukraine, taking washing machines, electronics, cultural artifacts and even the bones of the lover of Empress Catherine II. But the latest theft — including seven raccoons, two female wolves, peacocks, a llama and a donkey from Kherson Zoo — entered the realm of farce.

    A private Crimean zoo, Taigan Lion Park, owned by Oleg Zubkov, filmed him inexpertly grabbing raccoons by their tails and dumping them into cages in a YouTube video headlined “We are in Kherson. Oleg Zubkov catches raccoons with BARE HANDS!!!”

    The occupiers stole everything from Kherson: paintings from art galleries, antiquities from museums, historic manuscripts from libraries. But their most prized loot was a raccoon they stole from a zoo. Steal a raccoon and Die. pic.twitter.com/1mqBrrKjHQ
    — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 13, 2022

  8. 8.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Another Scott: Lining up on a riverbank in fixed fortifications was about as dumb as it gets.  I figured that RU would want to be able to identify and intercept any attempt as a crossing, and interdict repair work on the sluiceway or bridges.  Beyond that, Zaporizhia on the map looked like a good target for a breakthrough, especially with the Kerch Bridge partially destroyed.

    My question is more on the UA side of strategy: What now?  Rebuild Kherson, harry and HIMARS the RU forces on teh south bank but I doubt there’s a breakthrough there possible.  Izium and Bakhamut fronts could use a boost, especially eforrts around Kremenna.  I’m jsut arm-chairing though and wondering how each side will hold up between now and the end of the muddy season.

  9. 9.

    Anonymous At Work

    @dmsilev: Unless they mean some rare species of raccoon, I’m pretty sure The South can donate replacement raccoons to Ukraine fairly swiftly.  If RU is hard-up for “exotic wildlife”, may I suggest air-dropping rabid raccoons?  A few dozen possums too.  Those suckers are scary enough when you know what they are; I can’t imagine the effect on someone who doesn’t know what one is.

  10. 10.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    @dmsilev: in suburban New York we have raccoons that we can give you for free! Rabid ones, even!

    oh I see Anonymous at work beat me too it.

  11. 11.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Chacal Charles Calthrop: True, and NYC may have a dense concentration in some parts but I give you DRUNKEN REDNECKS TRYING TO FEEL IMPORTANT.  Imagine being told by CIA agents with official badges and sunglasses that they need as many raccoons as the drunken redneck and his buddies can round up, “for the good of the country and national security, to launch at them Commie bastards in Moscow.”
    I’m not sure how one can make the common American raccoon an endangered species, but I’m pretty sure this is the recommended first step.

  12. 12.

    realbtl

    I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest alcohol may have been involved in the raccoon theft.

  15. 15.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Chetan Murthy: I don’t think many possums would be needed.  I figure running into one at night and hearing it hiss like a demon from hell, only scarier, would be enough to get an entire brigade to flee for the border.

  16. 16.

    trollhattan

    @dmsilev: Restocking the Russian Strategic Raccoon Reserve seems dubious. One cannot count on a raccoon, whatever the circumstances. Should said zoo require restocking, I may be of help.

    Curious, tactically, with the fall-winter transition which side benefits more? Most Ukraine woods seem deciduous and will be dropping leaves, making concealment less effective. Thermal imaging would likewise seem more effective as temps plummet–engines and even human bodies will be easier to identify. Going out on a limb (heh) to speculate it favors Ukraine.

    In February I had not clue one this fight would endure nine long months. Push those bastards into the sea, Ukraine.

  17. 17.

    CaseyL

    Rabid raccoons and irate possums, oh my!

    Reminds me of the stories about crazy stuff military researchers thought up during WWII.  My favorite was the idea of putting tiny bombs on bats and then dropping them over Japanese military targets.  IIRC, none of the crazy ideas were actually seriously considered; it was disinformation deliberately designed to keep the Japanese intelligence services guessing as to what the US would actually do.

  21. 21.

    Alison Rose

    As a random unimportant aside, I was recently made aware of pampushka and now 1) I want to eat them, and 2) If I ever do get a hamster like I’ve wanted for years*, that will be its name.

    *We had two hamsters, one after the other, when I was a kid, and I adored them. But as an adult, I’ve always had a cat, and it just feels kind of mean to keep a small furry creature in a cage in a home with a cat.

  22. 22.

    Martin

    @MobiusKlein:

    Damage  of 349 Billion Dollars as of  June 1 – that boggles the mind.

    Yeah, that’s a Musk-and-a-half.

    Reminder that we have the means to fix these things, just not the will.

  23. 23.

    Chetan Murthy

    @dmsilev: Wait, aren’t those delicious?  I’ve only had goose once, in 1993 (in France), so I don’t actually know.  But one would think ….. can’t we send them some animal that is all bones ?  How about armadillos ?

  27. 27.

    Amir Khalid

    I haven’t seen a valuation of Russian oligarchs’ assets seized in the West since the invasion. How much of the US$349 billion would they cover?

  28. 28.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Amir Khalid: IIRC, the RU central bank accounts at the Fed were already well in excess of $300B.  But somehow we’re not allowed to use those for Ukraine’s benefit.  For reasons.

  30. 30.

    oldster

    Earlier today I saw a tweet claiming that UKR troops had landed on a spit of land that lies opposite the mouth of the Dnipro south of Mykolaiv, and were advancing on the town of Heroiske. This is on the left (=south or east) bank of the Dnipro, at the very end where it empties into the Black Sea. Google “heroiske” to get the map location.

    The tweet was in German, and did not provide any authentication.

    However, later in the day I saw a tweet from the UKR govt. showing a video clip of UKR troops in zodiac boats crossing a big, big stretch of water. The title was something about the beauty of the Dnipro river. But given the length of the clip, the speed of the boats, and the absence of any shore in sight, they were crossing a stretch were it is very wide. There were a number of boats — four, five, many.  Ah, here it is:

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1591900962699894784

     

    Anyhow — looks like maybe the Ukrainians are carrying the fight to the opposite bank of the Dnipro. Not resting. Pushing forward.

    Slava Ukraini. Heroyam slava.

  31. 31.

    patrick II

    Alexander Dugin has called for the end of Putin. It seems abdication, overthrow, or death are all acceptable solutions to ending Putin’s leadership to Dugin. I am not surprised he feels that way, but surprised he said it.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @trollhattan:

    over the years, there have been a bunch of advances in “thwarting” IR systems. For an infantry person it can be as simple as a “space blanket”, for a tank or truck, a frame with a roof and sides of “thermal” fabrics.

    The NATO training mission in Britain, is sending all graduates of the program home with a full set of NATO winter gear, along with winter training from a bunch of NATO and future NATO members with lot’s of winter experience.

    Advantage Ukraine.

  34. 34.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Chetan Murthy:

    “Widespread Damage and Disease Across Central Asia and Eastern Europe as Unitarian Jihadists Introduce Invasive Species”

  38. 38.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    @Chetan Murthy: I confess the image of a bunch of grown Russian men shrieking in fear after finding aramadillos digging in their green spaces gave me joy. They are creepy looking.

  40. 40.

    oldster

    @patrick II:

    He’s already called for Putin’s ritual murder, when he alluded to “Fraser’s Rain King,” i.e. the mythical king in Fraser’s “Golden Bough” who is killed if he cannot make it rain.

    Dugin, Jordan Peterson and other fascist whack-jobs share a deep fascination with Fraser’s studies of myth. It’s a shame, because Fraser himself was a good scholar, unlike either Dugin or Peterson.

    But fascism and myth go together like republicans and corruption.

  41. 41.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Alison Rose: The plural would be pampushky. And you need the plural, because eating one is vanishingly unlikely.

    Honestly, they are basically jelly donuts.

  42. 42.

    Martin

    @Chetan Murthy: International law. Nothing stopping the UN from giving us permission to release it to Ukraine as war reparations. But that’s not our call. We at least try to play by the rules.

  43. 43.

    Martin

    @oldster: I would have expected them to pause at Kherson and not risk crossing, but maybe the best play is when you have your opponent on the run to keep chasing.

  46. 46.

    oldster

    @Martin:

    The report may be inaccurate, of course.

    But one thing I’m pretty sure of is that Valerii Zaluzhnyi is a better general than I am. If he thinks it’s the right call, I’m not going to second-guess him.

  47. 47.

    Ken

    @patrick II: I am not surprised [Dugin] feels that way, but surprised he said it.

    So am I, because he said it a couple of days ago and I was sure he’d promptly fall out a window onto some bullets and nerve toxin.

  52. 52.

    Jay

    @sab:

    woke possums are scary. big teeth, hissing, arched back,

    road possums are scary, because you try to swerve or straddle, but at the last moment they go that “anti-predator” jump and take out your radiator.

  53. 53.

    Alison Rose

    @patrick II: My only worry with that is–what comes after him? I don’t know how succession works in russia, but I assume whomever would take his place would be just as much of an evil shitboot as he is.

  54. 54.

    Martin

    @twbrandt (formerly tom):

    I think pączki are more like fastnacht. They both serve as part of the blow-out prior to lent, so they tend to be seasonal and are always sweet – donuts, basically. My understanding is that pampushka are more year-round and generally aren’t as sweet but can be sweetened to be a desert but can also be savory. Kind of like how a pie dough can be shifted one way or another with minimal changes. There’s really no such thing as a savory fastnacht or pączki.

  57. 57.

    Ben Vernia

    In addition to the Ukrainian Marshall Plan, the West must really put some effort into planning how to manage post-war Russian politics. Like most people, I want Russia — and specifically its leadership — to pay dearly for its violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, human rights, and the law of war. At the same time, recall how quickly the humiliation of Germany in the Compiègne Forest (and later at Versailles) devolved into the Dolchstoßlegende, or stab-in-the-back myth. Right-wingers seeking to lay blame assassinated Matthias Erzberger, the civilian signer of the armistice, less than three years after the end of the war. The same elements exist in Russia, and as bad as Putin is, we must try to obtain a stable Russia, even if it remains an adversary.

  58. 58.

    Anoniminous

    @Another Scott:

    Figures.

    The Ukrainians are ~15 kilometers from Volnovakha which is a railroad junction for East/West traffic from Donetsk and North/South traffic from Mariupol.  Either the Russians accept reality and pull back to defensible positions in the Isthmus  of Perekop and … the Kalka River?  Or they are going to lose all of the units now milling around in southwest Kherson Oblast.  Reports from Mariupol the Russians are turning the city into a major Army base.  Those reports are the main reason I think they want to hold along the Kalka.

    Isthmus of Perekop is going to be one bugger to crack.  Three of the most bloody battles of WW 2 happened there.  The problem is there’s no room to maneuver.  The attacker has to attack straight into killing zones.

  59. 59.

    Carlo Graziani

    I have a feeling that Zelenskyy’s “No weekends” talk is a pep talk directed to troops who are disengaging from the Kherson fight, packing up their gear, getting on trains, and heading directly to another fight.

    My money says Svatove-Kreminna.

  60. 60.

    twbrandt (formerly tom)

    @Martin: thanks. To my English-speaking eyes (do eyes speak?), pączki and pampushka look sort of similar and I wondered if there was a relationship. Growing up in an area (Detroit) with a lot of Poles, I know that pączki are a tradition in preparation for Lent.

  61. 61.

    Anoniminous

    @oldster:

    The best way to cross a river is into a beach head and the best way to get a beach head is a hasty assault with everything you can muster as close as possible to the retreating enemy.  It is very risky but if it works it really cuts down on the casualties.

  62. 62.

    OverTwistWillie

     

    @Martin:

    We don’t know the cost of last week in fuel, shells, equipment and soldiers; or if the have the logistics and support units in place.

  63. 63.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Anoniminous: The issue is sustainment. There is no possibility that I can see of the Ukrainians laying down a sustained assault through that beachead, if the Russians should choose to challenge it. They don’t have the assault watercraft or the ferry capacity for their heavy weaponry, unless they’ve been preparing for exactly this and have a mini-Overlord ready to go.

    If they really did cross, I would have to guess it’s a feint to annoy the Russians, and keep them from redeploying.

  64. 64.

    OverTwistWillie

    A post from today’s GOS:

    Logistics is only boring in the sense that it doesn’t make for good Shoigu propaganda videos about wonder-waffles and other analo-govnet.  It is quite unbelievable that Russia has dismantled the Soviet non-rail logistics system (imperfect as it was) and replaced it with approximately nothing, almost like intentional sabotage.  Logistics, especially its organization at the operational level, was always the most emphasized subject in Soviet-style military education.

    Then again, they also dismantled the Soviet signals units and replaced them with basically cell phones.  I don’t quite understand this, I would almost suspect intentional sabotage, but it’s probably just a dismissal of the possibility of a major war combined with a rising demand for oligarch yachts and palaces.

    the jokes explained: “wonder-waffles” means things like T-14, potentially cool but produced as prototypes only or in very limited numbers, that feature prominently in Shoigu’s advertisements for the “second military in the world”. It is a reference to Hitler’s obsession with such things. “analo-govnet” is a reference to a phrase that universally occurs in Shoigu’s ads, “analogov net”, meaning “there are no analogues” [in the west]. When parsed as “analo govnet”, it instead means “anal shit.”

  65. 65.

    Anoniminous

    @Carlo Graziani:

    They don’t need heavy weapons.  Heroiske can be well protected with artillery fire from position in southwest Kherson Oblast.  In fact, they don’t want heavy weapons for exactly the reason you give.  Once the Ukrainians dig in it would be very difficult to kick them out.  There’s only one road on the north – Kherson facing – side of the peninsula and the rest of the approach is swamp.  The attacking force would be heading into a kill zone.

  68. 68.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Anoniminous: Yeah. I’m raising objections without clearly articulating what bothers me about the whole scenario, which is incoherent of me. Sorry.

    There’s no strategic objective of much value worth the pursuit across the river. Settling into yet another slugging match with the grouping south of the river doesn’t accomplish much, and there are already three stalemates (Donetsk, Bakhmut, and Svatove) in progress.

    I’ve already turned my cards face-up: I think it’s Svatove, and a big, fast drive on Starobilsk to sever the final Belgorod rail supply line. That’s one straightforward, achievable strategic objective that they could conceivably accomplish before the Russians pull their pants back up.

  69. 69.

    NutmegAgain

    I’ve been reading again all the stories of devastation left –rather, made purposely–by the Ruscist army and thinking especially about the landmines and tripwires. Just such awful havoc and violence, and aimed squarely at the civilians and folk who will be working on reconstructing their country, in every way.

    So I thought I would toss out the question here–suggestion(s) of places to donate that are specifically toward anti mine equipment. I realize I can go through the Patron-represented orgs, but also want to know if there are other good suggestions.

  70. 70.

    Amir Khalid

    @Ben Vernia:

    the West must really put some effort into planning how to manage post-war Russian politics.

    I’m not sure how the West can do that without occupying Russia. That would first require winning a war on Russian soil, which for obvious reasons the West has said it wants to avoid.

  71. 71.

    Anonymous At Work

    @sab: At night, when their ghost white face, elongated snout, and loud hissing noises surprise you from the bushes or a crawl space?  Pretty intense if you prepare yourself for the encounter.
    If you’ve only heard the word “Opossum” on American TV?

    Raccoons will go at you, geese know no fear, but possums will teach you the meaning of the phrase “soil yourself in terror”.

  74. 74.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Amir Khalid: That’s not entirely a given. We are seeing surface indications of power struggles in progress below the murky depths in Russia, and they have some considerable history of conspiracy, coups, and putsches (not so much of “Revolutions”, much as the Communists would have had us believe). When things break down for such regimes, they tend to go unexpectedly and fast, like earthquakes. I doubt Putin could buy life insurance at any price right now.

    Unfortunately, none of this is to say that we may have to look forward to managing democratic post-war Russian politics, or even undemocratic but Westernizing politics. We can expect to deal with a much weaker Russia, possibly decolonized of a few of its outlying possessions making a break for it while there’s a chance, and riven by internal factions. For the West, “managing Russian politics” may mean deciding whether any of these factions is worth supporting, or whether Western interests are served if they all lose.

    And yes, that is “political interference”. Turnabout is fair play. Putinism is going into the ground and staying there no matter what has to happen to drive the stake into its heart.

  77. 77.

    The Pale Scot

    @Another Scott:

    The links and names point to this being in Iran. The Sauds are scum that would have used chemical weapons on that crowd without hesitation. The Persians are a civilized nation. Not like the stone cold Wahibi sociopaths in SA

  78. 78.

    The Pale Scot

    @CaseyL:

    No, that was a real thing. When I first read about this project I was on the floor laughing my head for at least 15 minutes. Because the General who came to inspect the project insisted that flash photography be taken over the objections of engineers. The flashes freaked out the bats. They poured out of the building, roosting in various parts of the military base. Where they torched at least one building and a 2000 gallon fuel tank

    Excuse me, I have to lay on the floor and laugh, hopefully it will be a shorter length of time

  79. 79.

    The Pale Scot

    @Martin:

    but maybe the best play is when you have your opponent on the run to keep chasing.

    Don’t let them reset, don’t let them re-establish logistics. Chase them until you run out of gas

    John Christian Falkenburg

  80. 80.

    Alison Rose

    @NutmegAgain: If you donate through the United24 platform, you can specifically choose “defence and demining” for your donation. The push for a while has been for folks to set up monthly recurring $24 donations, which I’ve been doing for a few months. You can do it with a card or Paypal.

  81. 81.

    ColoradoGuy

    I’m wondering what will happen to the Republican party, as well as related disinformation ops like Tucker Carlson and QAnon, without KGB/FSB financing and cultural psyops expertise. If Russia is truly defeated, fascist parties worldwide could collapse without external aid and support.

  83. 83.

    sab

    @Anonymous At Work: I had a friend with a pet possum. He was adorable. And the ones that lurked outside my parents house were just kind of stupid. I admit I have never met one in a crawl space.

    Raccoons anywhere and everywhere scare me a lot.

  85. 85.

    oldster

    @Carlo Graziani:

    The best reason to think that the landing on Kinburn Spit and the  advance on Heroiske is a feint…

    is that we know about them.

    Ukrainian op-sec has been very good, and they don’t release videos of things they don’t want known by the enemy.

    So, it may be a feint to cover an eastern campaign, as you suggest.

    It may also be an attempt to draw out an enemy warship or two from Sebastopol, and bring it within range of shore batteries.

    And if the enemy don’t send warships and don’t respond to the landing, well, then a good general can always consider how to exploit an opening.

  86. 86.

    Another Scott

    @The Pale Scot: Interesting.  The tweet seems to be gone now, unless I mangled the link.  Let’s see…  I don’t see it at LOLGOP any more either.

    Thanks for checking.  It’s too easy for misinformation to be spread these days.  Sorry for contributing to the noise.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  87. 87.

    NutmegAgain

    @Alison Rose: Excellent, thank you. I’ve been meaning to look at their page… too busy winterizing (for which, in the context of all these posts, is something I am deeply grateful to be able to do…).

    Some folks on my list may get donations-as gifts, as well.

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