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We’re watching the self-immolation of the leading world power on a level unprecedented in human history.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

With all due respect and assumptions of good faith, please fuck off into the sun.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Every decision we make has lots of baggage with it, known or unknown.

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We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

How stupid are these people?

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I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

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Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 322: Not Quite Clear On What Is Going On

War for Ukraine Day 322: Not Quite Clear On What Is Going On

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There’s a significant lag in accurate, verifiable information/news being reported out of Soledar and Bakhmut. As in 12 to 24 hours. It also doesn’t help that when I start putting these updates together it is early evening in the US and the middle of the night in Ukraine.

Most of what I’ve been seeing off and on today indicates the Russians are pushing hard and the Ukrainians are defending stalwartly, but what the situation is as of right now, I’m not 100% sure. I’ll have the details on that after President Zelenskyy’s speech. The video of which is below, the English transcript is, as always, after the jump:

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you health!

Several more stages of our diplomatic marathon took place today.

I spoke with Mrs. Čaputová, the President of Slovakia. About details of our defense cooperation and the diplomatic steps we have planned with the Europeans for the near future. Thank you to Slovakia for supporting the interests of Ukraine and the whole of Europe.

I also held talks with the Prime Minister of Albania, Rama. As always, I heard an understanding of our needs, an understanding of the Ukrainian position.

In general, thanks to the negotiations this week, we managed to significantly strengthen the resoluteness of our partners to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine. And we are working as hard as possible to ensure that it’s reflected in the decisions of the next meeting at Ramstein Air Base, the meeting of defense ministers, which will take place in the second half of January.

We are also preparing for Ukraine’s participation in the events of the World Economic Forum in Davos. This year, the traditional economic topics of the forum will obviously give way to security issues. And it’s important for us that there is an effective and clear Ukrainian answer to every question of the world regarding security. So be it.

I took part in a special solemn meeting of the Lithuanian Seimas. Lithuania celebrated the Day of the Defenders of Freedom – the anniversary of the events of January 1991, when people defended the independence of their state against the efforts of then Moscow to maintain control over Lithuania.

And today there was a very symbolic meeting, very emotional. I thanked our Lithuanian brothers for all their actions in support of Ukraine and our struggle for freedom and for all their words about the heroism of our people, which were and will be heard in Lithuania. Today, one of our greatest achievements in the time since February 24 was very clearly felt, namely: the context of European freedom, the context of the integrity of the European Union is simply impossible to imagine now without Ukraine. The fullness of Europe is, in particular, the fullness of integration with Ukraine. We will do everything to implement it in concrete decisions of the European community.

Of course, today, as every day, we are constantly in touch with our commanders, with the heads of intelligence and special services.

The tough battle for Donetsk region continues, the battle for Bakhmut and Soledar, for Kreminna, for other towns and villages in the east of our country continues. Although the enemy has concentrated its greatest forces in this direction, our troops – the Armed Forces of Ukraine, all defense and security forces – are defending the state.

I thank every soldier, sergeant, officer of brigades and other army units who are bravely and staunchly performing their tasks!

I thank the fighters of the Kraken unit for their decisive actions to destroy the enemy near Soledar! Thanks to the soldiers of the International Legion of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense and the Shaman unit, who are bravely defending Bakhmut!

Three hundred twenty-four days of the full-scale war, and how things have changed for Russia… They are already gnawing among themselves over who should be credited with some tactical advance. It’s a clear signal of failure for the enemy. And it’s another incentive for all of us to put more pressure on the occupier and to inflict heavier losses on the enemy. Thanks to everyone who makes it happen both on the front lines and all our other fronts.

That is why today I also want to mark the employees of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine. Those whose work is usually completely invisible. And about whom few people talk. But they really bring closer very important decisions of partners for Ukraine, for our defenders. Thanks for that!

I thank all the personnel of the Security Service of Ukraine, whose results in the fight, in particular, against collaborators and saboteurs, society sees.

Every step of the state in national defense is carefully prepared, and this gives us legal and fair results. This gives us a real increase in our independence, in all its aspects. Thank you for that!

Thanks to everyone who works for the victory of our country!

Glory to our soldiers!

Glory to Ukraine!

The BBC published an interview with Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense: (emphasis mine)

Ukraine has become a de facto member of the Nato alliance, the Ukrainian defence minister says, as Western countries, once concerned that military assistance could be seen as an escalation by Russia, change their “thinking approach”.

In an interview with the BBC, Oleksii Reznikov said he was sure Ukraine would receive long-sought weapons, including tanks and fighter jets, as both Ukraine and Russia seemed to be preparing for new offensives in the spring.

“This concern about the next level of escalation, for me, is some kind of protocol,” Mr Reznikov said.

“Ukraine as a country, and the armed forces of Ukraine, became [a] member of Nato. De facto, not de jure (by law). Because we have weaponry, and the understanding of how to use it.”

Ukraine, for years, has sought to join the military alliance between the US, Canada and 28 European countries, something President Vladimir Putin has described as a security threat for Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for fast-track accession, but it is unclear whether full membership is something the alliance members will seriously consider even after the war is over, despite pledges of support.

Article 5 of the Nato Treaty says an armed attack against any member should be considered an attack against all.

Mr Reznikov, however, denied that his comments would be seen as controversial, not only by Russia but, perhaps, by Nato itself, as the alliance has taken steps not to be seen as a party to the conflict.

“Why [would it be] controversial? It’s true. It’s a fact,” Mr Reznikov said. “I’m sure that in the near future, we’ll become member of Nato, de jure.”

The defence minister spoke in the capital, Kyiv, as Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to fight for the small town of Soledar, in the eastern Donetsk region, in some of the most intense battles in the nearly 11-month-old war.

The Russian offensive is led by the mercenary Wagner Group, whose founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, a long-time Putin ally, has become a vocal critic of the Russian army’s performance in Ukraine.

On Tuesday, Mr Prigozhin claimed that his fighters had seized control of the town, an allegation that was dismissed by Ukraine and, remarkably, by the Kremlin, in what was considered a rebuff to Mr Prigozhin.

The situation in Soledar was “very difficult”, Mr Reznikov said, but “under control”. He said Wagner fighters were being used in “wave after wave after wave” of attacks, leading to a high number of deaths, and that Mr Prigozhin was interested in the possible economic benefits of seizing the town, home to Europe’s largest salt mines.

“They’ll earn money from blood,” he said.

Soledar is about 10km (six miles) from Bakhmut, a strategic city where Ukrainian and Russian forces have been engaged in a months-long war of attrition that has caused widespread destruction and heavy losses on both sides. There, Wagner mercenaries have also been deployed in large numbers, and Mr Prigozhin is believed to have made the capture of Bakhmut a personal goal.

The group, Mr Reznikov said, “need to deliver some kind of proof to declare they’re better than the regular armed forces of the Russian Federation”. If seized, Bakhmut could pave the way for a Russian push towards Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, two Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk, a region that has been a key target for President Putin.

Mr Reznikov was speaking before Russia on Friday claimed it had taken control of Soledar. Ukraine disputed this and accused Russia of “information noise”.

Any gains would be, more than anything else, of extreme symbolic value for Russia. They would come after a series of humiliating setbacks, including a chaotic retreat from the north-eastern region of Kharkiv and the withdrawal from the southern city of Kherson, the only regional capital Russian forces had captured in the war.

Mr Reznikov spoke a day after the Russian defence ministry replaced the commander of its forces in Ukraine, a surprise announcement that was seen as a sign of a power struggle. Gen Valery Gerasimov, one of the architects of last year’s invasion, would return to the post that was being held by Gen Sergei Surovikin, who had been appointed in October.

The change, Mr Reznikov said, was a result of the “conflict between Mr Prigozhin and the armed forces of the Russian Federation”. Gen Surovikin oversaw the recent brutal attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure that, according to Mr Reznikov, “reduced the [Russian missile] stocks without any results”, repeating a Ukrainian claim that “they’re running out of missiles”.

Much more at the link!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Soledar, Bakhmut, and Kremenna. You’ll notice they range from ten hours ago to about 45 minutes or so ago.

This is one of the contributing issues in figuring out what is actually going on in Soledar and Bakhmut:

As I wrote last night, a significant reason for this Russian assault is not because Soledar or Bakhmut or so important in regard to their theater strategy. Rather, should his Wagner PMCs be successful, Prigozhin can then claim that his forces, not the Russian military, was able to take and hold a Ukrainian municipality. Even if it is only held for a short period of time.

Ukrainian SOF and the Ukrainian partisan underground are on the hunt!

This just about sums things up:

Similarly, Bloomberg is reporting that Germany will make a decision on whether to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine next week before the next conference at Ramstein Air Force Base:

Germany will make a decision on sending Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine in the next week, as European allies assess how to help the government in Kyiv in the event fighting builds in the spring.

With calls increasing for Berlin to provide heavy tanks, Germany will likely decide to supply the Leopards, according to two officials familiar with the government’s thinking.

Berlin will make a decision before a meeting of senior defense officials from allied nations at the American airbase in Ramstein on Jan. 20, according to a German official familiar with the plans, who asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his German counterpart Christine Lambrecht will also meet in Berlin the day before.

At the Ramstein meeting, Lambrecht will send a clear message on the Leopards, the official said. As of Thursday, Berlin still hadn’t made a concrete decision, but pressure is mounting for Germany to send heavy tanks, according to another European official.

The UK is prepared to send its own Challenger 2 battle tanks to Ukraine as part of a joint agreement with other allies, the official said.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has come under increasing pressure to allow the delivery of battle tanks to Ukraine, one week after he announced that Germany would supply armored vehicles and an additional Patriot air system to Kyiv.

Now there are signs that Scholz may be willing to back down from his initial opposition to sending Leopard tanks or that he may allow countries like Poland and Finland to re-export their own Leopards to Ukraine, a move that would require Berlin’s consent.

“Germany should not stand in the way, when other countries decide to support Ukraine, regardless of what Germany decides,” Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said Thursday with regard to Poland’s request to send Leopard 2 tanks. Justice Minister Marco Buschmann also said in an interview on Friday that sending Leopard 2 tanks “should not be a taboo.”

German government spokeswoman Chistiane Hoffmann said that the Polish government has so far not made an official request and made clear that sending these tanks without Germany’s permission would be “illegal.”

It appears that Germany’s Leopard 2s have decided to take matters into their own treads!

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has some suggestions for the Germans, and everyone else, who are dragging their feet on sending tanks to Ukraine:

For those of you wondering about economic sanctions:

As the sanctions and the costs of the invasion of Ukraine take their toll on Russia’s economy, the country is more dependent than ever on revenue from fossil fuel exports. The EU has taken massive steps over the past year to cut off its dependence on fuel imports from Russia and cut off financing for the Kremlin’s unprovoked and illegal assault against Ukraine and Europe. The short-term windfall generated to Russia by sky-high fossil fuel prices in 2022 is starting to wear out, in part due to reductions in fossil fuel consumption prompted by the high prices. Further cuts to Kremlin’s revenue will therefore materially weaken the country’s ability to continue its assault and help bring the war to an end. CREA’s briefing assesses the impacts of measures taken by the EU and Ukraine’s other allies to date, and identifies further options to drain Kremlin’s war chest.

Key findings include:

  • Russia’s earnings from fossil fuel exports fell 17% in December, to the lowest level since the start of the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
  • The EU oil ban and price cap are costing Russia an estimated EUR 160 mn/day. The fall in shipment volumes and prices for Russian oil has cut the country’s export revenues by EUR 180 million per day. Russia managed to claw back EUR 20 million per day by increasing exports of refined oil products to the EU and to the rest of the world, resulting in a net daily loss of EUR 160 million.
  • The measures caused a 12% reduction in Russia’s crude oil exports and a 23% drop in selling prices, for a 32% drop in Russian crude oil revenues in December.  Germany’s stoppage of pipeline oil imports shaved off another 5% at the end of December.
  • Russia is still making an estimated EUR 640 mn per day from exporting fossil fuels, down from a high of EUR 1000 mn in March to May 2022. The EU’s ban on refined oil imports, the extension of the price cap to refined oil and reductions in pipeline oil imports to Poland will slash this by an estimated EUR 120 mn per day by 5 February.
  • The EU remained the largest importer of oil from Russia in December, when pipeline crude oil and all oil products are included. This will have changed as Germany ceased to import Russian pipeline oil at the end of December and the EU oil products ban enters into force in February. Japan became the largest importer of LNG from Russia as European buyers cut purchases. China, South Korea, Turkey, India and Japan were the largest importers of coal.
  • Russia has so far made EUR 3.1 bn shipping crude oil on vessels covered by the price cap, resulting in approximately EUR 2.0 bn in tax income to the Russian government. This tax income can be eliminated almost completely by revising the price cap to a level that is much closer to Russia’s costs of production.
  • Lowering the crude oil price cap to USD25–35, still well above production and transport costs in Russia, would slash Russia’s oil export revenue by at least EUR 100 mn per day.
  • The price cap coalition has a strong leverage to push down the price caps — Russia has not found a meaningful alternative to vessels owned and/or insured in the G7 for the transportation of Russian crude and oil products from Baltic and Black Sea ports.
  • In the Pacific, Russia continues to use UK-insured tankers to sell oil to China, although the market price for the oil is above the price cap level. New measures are needed against insurers and tankers engaged in this trade.
  • Further measures available to the EU and allies can cut Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues further by an estimated EUR 200 mn per day, from the level projected after the oil products import ban and price cap.

Policy recommendations

  • Reductions in fossil fuel demand have played a key role in enabling the implementation and effectiveness of the import bans. It is essential to make these reductions more sustainable economically and socially by further investing in energy efficiency, energy savings and clean energy.
  • Revise the oil price cap down to USD25–35 per barrel of crude oil and USD5/barrel higher for refined products. This level substantially reduces Russian mineral tax revenues while keeping Russian oil production economically viable.
  • Strengthen the implementation of the price cap by increasing penalties for tankers violating the cap, as well as strengthening disclosure requirements or requiring payments to be made through an intermediary.
  • Introduce additional sanctions to limit Russian seaborne oil trade. This includes restrictions on sales of tankers, to prevent Russia, its allies and related traders from acquiring old tankers to use to circumvent the cap, as well as prohibiting transhipment of Russian oil in territorial waters and exclusive economic zones of price cap coalition countries. Restrict the use of tankers without adequate insurance coverage and ensure the enforcement of environmental norms for tankers in the Baltic and Black Seas.
  • Institute price caps and/or import restrictions for pipeline oil, pipeline gas and LNG from Russia to the EU.

 

Ukrainian combat engineers, Castor Fiber Division, are on the job!

VOLYN REGION, Ukraine, Jan 12 (Reuters) – Burst river banks, thick mud and waterlogged fields could be seen for miles around northwest Ukraine’s border with Belarus on Thursday, making the prospect of a Russian assault from across the border unlikely for now despite recent warnings from Kyiv.

Ukrainian officials have warned of a new looming Russian assault, with Belarus to the north named as one possible launchpad, as Moscow seeks to revive its faltering invasion.

Russia and its close ally Belarus have beefed up their joint military grouping in Belarus and plan to hold joint aviation drills there from next Monday.

Against this backdrop, the borderland’s thick forests and treacherous swamps are guarded by the Volyn territorial defence brigade, one of hundreds of Ukrainian units recruited from local people willing to defend their communities.

On the sidelines of training exercises several kilometres south of the Russian border, soldiers and officers from the unit told Reuters how the unusually mild winter had given them a considerable tactical advantage.

“On your own land, everything will help you to defend it – the landscape, lots of rivers, which have burst their banks this year,” said Viktor Rokun, one of the brigade’s deputy commanders. The fields and trees around him were submerged in murky lakes of cold water.

The unit’s spokesman, Serhiy Khominskyi, said that help in making the terrain unpassable had also come from an unlikely ally: the local beaver population.

“When they build their dams normally people destroy them, but they didn’t this year because of the war, so now there is water everywhere,” he said.

Here is some found footage of the Ukrainian Castor Fiber Division in action!

And obligatory!

He's a beaver. He shouldn't be saying anything!

Happy Lithuania Freedom Day!

A Kyivan valkyrie has sadly gone to join her sisters:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Цей рік змінив кожного 🇺🇦 #песпатрон #славаукраїні

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The caption machine translates as:

This year has changed everyone 🇺🇦 #песпатрон#славаукраїні

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

100Comments

  2. 2.

    Feathers

    Beavers can fuck a landscape up. To be honest, from the beaver’s POV they are perfecting it.

  3. 3.

    Chetan Murthy

    IIUC,  also Caltech’s ?  Uh,  gotta ask: what’s the movie gif from ?  I don’t recognize it.  Maybe b/c I’m ollld, maybe b/c I’m just not much of a moviegoer.

  4. 4.

    Medicine Man

    I’m torn up by what Ukr is going through. Feel as though it is our entire shame that this looks like a proxy anything. We could and should be doing things directly to put an end to this bull.

  11. 11.

    Ixnay

    As always Adam, you are providing an invaluable service. Thank you. I read it every day. Lurker out.

  12. 12.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Chetan Murthy: Yep, it’s on Disney+. They did a good job. If you can tolerate, as an adult, Lewis’s somewhat heavy handed Christian allegory – as in ignore it/tune it out/not let it mess up the story – then you’ll enjoy it.

  14. 14.

    planetjanet

    Ukraine’s MOD has an amazing social media team.  That what is a tank video had me laughing out loud.  Oh, my.  Thank you, as always Adam for your incredible work.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I think Mr. Reznikov is engaging in a messaging exercise to shape the information battlefield, both internally to Ukrainians & externally to Russia & NATO. I.e., not it be taken literally.

    The most important feature of the NATO alliance is treaty commitment to mutual defense, including directly joining hostilities against any invading foe in the pursuit of common defense. Ukraine’s relationship to NATO now may be closer to that of Israel/Saudi Arabia/Singapore, “major non-NATO ally” but no treaty obligation for mutual defense. After the war, though, I can’t see what will stop Ukraine from joining NATO & the EU, Russia will not be in a position to stop such a development. Unless Ukrainian not officially joining NATO is part of the negotiated end to the war in exchange for Russian withdraw to pre-2014 internationally recognized borders (Crimea TabD).

    I am also somewhat surprised that Japan has been the largest purchaser of Russian LNG, given there is actually a massive LNG pipeline (Power of Siberia) connecting Russian gas fields in Eastern Siberia to China. The analysis is in terms of value rather than volume, so perhaps a Japan has been paying higher prices on the spot market than China’s long term deal.

    Price cap on Russian oil is an interesting & potentially highly impactful instrument, & not just wrt Russia. Countries like China & India have little incentive to help Russia here, since the lower the cap, the harder bargain they can drive with Russia for their own purchases, an outcome that aligns w/ the intent of the price cap. It also placed Russia oil in greater price competition against Saudi oil, & could complicate their efforts at price collusion.

    Not that cheap oil is good for the planet. Policy making is all about unpalatable trade offs. Or at least they should be. If there are no unpalatable trade offs to major policy decisions, then policymakers are probably missing something (such as 2nd/3rd order effects & unintended consequences) & rushing headlong toward a mistake.

  16. 16.

    Mike in NC

    Our next door neighbor never fails to crack everybody up when he claims that the dirtiest thing ever said on network TV happened when June Cleaver said to Ward, “You were a little rough on the beaver last night”.

  17. 17.

    Argiope

    Adam, you’ve outdone yourself tonight.  This post has everything: beavers, tragedy, comedy (the Abrams RV!), and strategy.  I laughed, I cried (that beautiful soldier was my daughter’s age), I learned a lot.  Thanks, as always.  And just to share some good news: we have a new citizen today, a young woman born and raised mostly in Cuba who was sworn in this morning in Miami.  She’s looking forward to voting for Democrats.  She’s my daughter’s girlfriend and a bright, creative, incredible young person.

  19. 19.

    Martin

    Adam, perhaps I missed it, but the willingness to send Leopards and Bradley Fighting Utility Vehicles is probably based on some change in the overall landscape – either a bad one for Ukraine that they need the extra help, or a good one for Ukraine in that they have opportunities that these would be useful. Is there a quick answer to what that change in situation might be? I don’t believe in coincidences on this kind of stuff.

  21. 21.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: The series suffered a major problem that most trilogies don’t have: it wasn’t supposed to be a trilogy. I think the plan was to do all seven books, which would’ve worked because the books themselves have the original four main characters aging out by book five. I thought two was solid and three was enjoyable if okay, but the first was the best. It is also the most straightforward to do. I would’ve liked to have seen the Silver Chair though.

  23. 23.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Martin: The latter. The Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to do combined arms warfare. The only thing they’re really lacking at this point is tanks within their armor corps. Tanks would provide a major advantage to them. Especially, because the Russians have demonstrated they cannot do combined arms warfare to save their lives. Both literally and figuratively.

  26. 26.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I am bemused by the handwringing from certain NATO countries about sending main battle tanks to Ukraine. They have already sent large numbers of tube & rocket artillery capable of precision strike to dozens of KMs, & they are worried about tanks whose main guns have 4 KMs range? Are they afraid the Ukrainians will use these tanks to march on Moscow?

    Why would Ukraine continue hostilities after the Russians have withdrawn beyond pre-2014 borders. After all the destruction & suffering, surely Ukraine will want to focus on reconstruction. Even if Ukraine for some crazy reason does try to march deep into Russia, against all NATO advise, the US/EU can always leverage the desperately needed financial aid & reconstruction fund to put a stop to it (not to mention withholding the 120 mm main gun ammunition, which Ukraine cannot produce). Don’t policymaker looker at the big picture, anymore?

  27. 27.

    Martin

    @Adam L Silverman: Excellent, thanks. Here’s hoping they can hold the line in the north and not have to retake any of these hills a second time.

    Thankfully there seems to be no direct escalation from Russia from the contribution of this additional equipment – nothing they wouldn’t have otherwise done. Seems we still have a LOT of equipment that was commissioned with the explicit purpose of destroying Russian equipment that is missing its opportunity to fulfill its specific destiny.

  28. 28.

    Gin & Tonic

    Interesting thread here about Kazakhs helping Ukraine. Read the whole thing to get the backstory.

    🇺🇦🇰🇿Kazakhstan set up 2 Yurts of Invincibility in Bucha & Kyiv, there are plans to set them up in other cities of Ukraine.

    Russia is furious w/ another “stab in its back” from an ally. But Moscow doesn’t understand that its aggression makes ties between the 🇺🇦🇰🇿 ppl stronger
    🧵 pic.twitter.com/2v2WPppAyM
    — Temur Umarov 马铁木 (@TUmarov) January 13, 2023

  32. 32.

    Tony G

    @Chetan Murthy: Yeah, I had the same reaction for the same two reasons.  (I somehow thought that the clip was from “The Princess Bride”.  That’s how clueless I am about movies.)

  33. 33.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Tony G: Well, I’ve seen The Princess Bride.  TBH, the two reasons I never thought about seeing TLTWATW was (a) kids’ movie (never read the books), (b) Christian proselytization.  Not up for either.

  34. 34.

    Tony G

    I’m waiting to see how long it will take before the Russian Army and the Wagner Group mercenaries start firing on each other.

  36. 36.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: Biden’s National Security Advisor has a very low tolerance for risk. In the case of Germany, Olaf Scholz also has a low tolerance for risk.

  37. 37.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    1. Ugh on Soledar, being overran with sheer bodies.  Read the report that the RU were armed with no armor, no winter gear, a simple assault rifle with a single magazine.
    2. If Soledar falls, will any high ranking military officers come down with windowitis?
    3. Bigger concern is Belarus.  Russia has decided whether they want Belarus to enter and offer a new front (this is #4 or #5 that they’ve made this threat).  Any threat from Belarus opening its borders and trying to help Russia?
  38. 38.

    Another Scott

    @Gin & Tonic: Made me look.

    RFERL.org (from January 11):

    On January 11, in response to a question from an RFE/RL correspondent at a briefing in Astana, Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov said there was “nothing to explain.”

    “The yurt was placed there. So, what is the problem? It is there. The help was provided. It is an imitative of private Kazakhstani companies. They organized it, transported it, and are providing the assistance. The situation in Ukraine is obviously complicated. Maybe for some the information [about the yurt] looks different. However, we do not see any problem here,” Smadiyarov said.

    (Emphasis added.)

    Indeed. What’s the problem? :-)

    There are 8 photos with the story. The baursaki looks yummy. The inside of the yurt is quite impressive!

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  40. 40.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Some of the trilogies in cinematic history weren’t planned as trilogies, either. The sequels were money grubbing enterprises. For some of the planned trilogies, the creative teams suffered from hubris & lack of restraint w/ the sequels.

    IMHO, the only trilogy that’s has managed to be consistently superb is Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings trilogy. Even then, you could see the corrosive effect of massive success in the Hobbit trilogy that followed. The latter should never have been a trilogy, & it was Jackson (& creative team) unbound on full display.

  41. 41.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anonymous At Work: 1) Prigozhin is trying to make up with quantity what he can’t do with quality. 2) If you’re referring to Russian generals, I doubt it. 3) Belarus is only a factor in terms of Russia using it as a base of operations to attack from the north.

  43. 43.

    Cheryl from Maryland

    @Adam L Silverman: I really liked the second one, mainly because the Telmarines had a 17th C Spanish vibe.  I was reading Perez-Reverte’s Alatriste books at the same time, so …

  45. 45.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Adam L Silverman: In the case of tanks I think the story is a bit more complicated than “NSC risk aversion”.

    DOD has Abrams for MBTs, and they are absolutely correct that these would be a terrible choice for Ukraine—jet-fueled, over-engineered monsters that only a military operating in the infinite-resource approximation (i.e. the US) can sensibly adopt.

    On the other hand, the US has been encouraging allies with supplies of non-stupid tanks to step up. The public pressure on Germany has been discreet, but firm, and coupled to whatever arm-twisting has happened back-stage finally seems to be having some effect on that apparatchik, Scholtz.

    I agree that the consensus seems to be building for a qualitative leap in the 2023 campaign, and that now is the time to let the Ukrainians level up their toys. They may not be a NATO member, but there can be no doubt that they are a NATO client state, and that if they are defeated or stalled, so is NATO.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Although I don’t think you are necessarily wrong in the substance (for the current moment), I don’t think Ukrainians take kindly to be called anyone’s “client state”.

  49. 49.

    Chetan Murthy

    It is rapidly becoming a commonplace, that we learn that yet another achievement attributed to the USSR (and hence, implicitly to Russia) was actually achieved by Ukrainians.  Here’s another:

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2023/01/12/7384509/

    On Jan. 12 is the birthday of Serhiy Korolyov, a Ukrainian engineer who launched humanity into space.
    Three of the most significant achievements at the dawn of the space era were masterminded by him. Sputnik. Gagarin. And Leonov’s first-ever spacewalk. Korolyov was the genius behind the technology that made these and many other leaps possible.

    The article goes into his life.  Geez, the USSR was a fucking savage place.  Just treated people like so much hamburger.

  50. 50.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: I see your point, but we need some kind of term. Ukraine-the-nation is an independent, free country with full diplomatic, political, and security relations with its peers. Ukraine-the-country-at-war has a clear transactional relationship with NATO, and the volume of best-in-class weapons that have and will be sent there are not going out of sentiment or charity.

    In the cold light of day, for NATO, Ukraine is playing the role with respect to Russia that Afghanistan played with respect to the Soviet Union. It’s the place where their system goes to bleed to death. That’s the value proposition. There is also political sentiment that operates at a parallel, perhaps higher level. But that Tweet about “Destroying the Russian army without losing a single American soldier” is spot-on. We should be grateful to Ukrainians—I certainly am—but we should not be sentimental about war.

  51. 51.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: Carlo, I agree with you, but would just add an amendment: from what I understand, we aren’t actually sending “best in class” weapons, are we?  We’re sending the stuff in stockpiles that we didn’t actually plan on using ?  OK, I mean, besides all the artilllery shells …. except even those, we didn’t plan on using, b/c we planned on using air power for that job.  Ditto antitank weapons.  Etc.  I guess NASAMS are best-in-class, and Patriots will be also ?  But most everything else so far hasn’t been, isn’t that correct ?

  52. 52.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chetan Murthy: You can’t really separate Soviet era achievements (& crimes for that matter) & neatly attribute them to its constituent SSRs, except for territories not yet incorporated into the USSR at the time. (I.e., the Baltic States had nothing to do w/ the Holodomyr.) I mean, Stalin was a Georgian.

  53. 53.

    Kent

    @Adam L Silverman:@YY_Sima Qian: Biden’s National Security Advisor has a very low tolerance for risk. In the case of Germany, Olaf Scholz also has a low tolerance for risk.

    Failure to act also entails risk.  That is what some of these people seem like they fail to understand.

  55. 55.

    Ruckus

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I’d ask what about the risk of doing nothing?

    Also we aren’t talking about security of say, my apartment, we are talking about the security of large chunks of the world and humanity, including that of many countries if not directly for sure indirectly, and very few steps away from directly.

  56. 56.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Individuals, sure, but the Soviet space program was not an individual effort. Ukraine can rightly celebrate Korolyov’s individual contribution to mankind’s advancement. By the same token, Soviet era achievements should not simply be bequeathed to Russia, which is what I think you are pushing back against.

    However, Soviet era crimes were not just the handiwork of Russian’s either. On the one hand, it was not just Russians that defeated the Nazis on the Eastern Front. On the other hand, it was not just Russians that brutalized their way across East Prussia.

  57. 57.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Ruckus: What would Olaf’s thought process look like?  Maybe something like this:

    someday this war will be over, and when that time comes, having Russia like kindly disposed toward us will be lucrative
    And meanwhile, well y’know, it ain’t like Ukraine is gonna capitulate to Russia: at this point, they’re pot-committed: if Russia wins, they’re all gonna get murdered and turned into slaves,  so they’re gonna fight until the last Ukrainian
    So gee, where’s the upside for *me* in helping them win faster?  I just lose points with Russia in the after-game for doing that, and I don’t win any points with UA — I mean, either way they’re gonna need my money to rebuild
    I can’t LOSE by being …. miserly in giving weapons to UA, as long as I make sure UA doesn’t end up losing.  And hell, the US will guarantee that for me!

    It’s a profoundly immoral calculus, but I think it’s close to where Scholz sits.

    Sullivan (US NSA), I think, is just afraid of being the man who destroyed the world (nuke war).  And while I think he’s wrong, I can’t fault his motivations.  Just his judgment

    ETA: and the “tell” (for me) is that he refuses to allow other EU/NATO countries to to donate Leopards.

  58. 58.

    livewyre

    Yeah, I’m philosophically extremely wary about attributing raw merit to individuals or ethnicities. It elides the horizontal social component of any form of achievement in the way that knowledge accumulates, either viewing it only generationally or in complete isolation. And historically, where ranking goes, culling follows.

  59. 59.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: With very few exceptions, every NATO-standard weapons system, including all the systems supplied to Ukraine, outclass their Russian equivalents by every performance measure. Ukraine now has howitzers and artillery rockets that do things the Russians only dream of. They have radar suppression weapons that blind the Russians and make their air defense, air cover, and air-to-ground attack capability minimal. They are acquiring world-class air defenses, infantry protected mobility vehicles, and, as of this week, Leopard and Challenger tanks.

    All this has happened in less than a year despite the insane difficulties that would be involved in rolling out the logistics for each of these systems in peacetime, to a full NATO ally. And it seems perfectly clear now that there’s a pipeline, out of sight of Twitter and the media, that is operating to deploy stuff at a rate that makes sense and that has nothing to do with what people in the media scream about.

    I’m getting a bit impatient with the “get on with it” exhortations, which often appear to me to willfully ignore everything that has been accomplished by the Biden administration to support Ukraine, and—nobody ever seems to remark on this part—to deter the Russians from NBC use to shore up their failing war.

    Results count, and the US—under the leadership of Biden and his NSC—have succeeded spectacularly, in marshalling sanctions, keeping allies in-step, and keeping Ukraine armed and un-nuked. I can’t think of another President in our lifetime who would have done as well, not even “Poppy” G.W. Bush, who would have started listening to the Realists back in May. As far as I’m concerned the administration has earned a little trust of its judgment on Ukraine. It’s certainly earned a lot less carping.

  60. 60.

    Ruckus

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Worse than so much hamburger, they treat them like the after effect of eating hamburger.

    The only thing the upper management of Russia has respect for is their bank accounts. Every thing else is only a way to make those accounts bigger, and when those accounts get rapidly smaller or useless, that’s when they seem to care about anything else at all. And at that point they seem to take a management position that proves my point in response to you. It starts to smell worse.

  61. 61.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: Carlo, I didn’t mean to criticize the US, or NATO.  What I meant, was only that NATO isn’t giving UA their best weapons.  That’s all I meant.

    But I do criticize Germany, b/c they’re literally preventing other countries from giving weapons.  Just as I criticize Switzerland.

  62. 62.

    Mallard Filmore

    Soledar:

    Prigozhin can then claim that his forces, not the Russian military, was able to take and hold a Ukrainian municipality.

    Two days ago I posted a YouTube link that said Soledar was falling.  The claim was that a rear guard of about 100 soldiers was left behind so that an evacuation could take place.  This next link says the rear guard was successfully extracted but the town is in RU hands.

    https://youtu.be/3msby0KF1HE

    “Update from Ukraine | Why Wagner lost in Soledar? Prigozhyn’s Victory was stolen | End of Drama”

    channel of “Denys Davydov “

  63. 63.

    Another Scott

    @Carlo Graziani: My impression, based on just things I scan here and a few other places, is that NATO is amazingly unified and keeping that unity is Job 1.  And keeping it takes time.

    I expect Leopards are going to Ukraine very, very soon.  A lot of the commentary and criticism over the past few weeks is to prepare the public for the transfers, so that it’s “old news” in a way, when it officially happens.

    Ukraine seems to have a wide arms pipeline…

    (Striping hastag links.)

    #Ukraine: Another type of 🇮🇷 Iranian-made ammunition was spotted in use with the Ukrainian army – this time 122mm HE-FRAG “Grad” rockets of the Arash family, made in 2022.

    Perhaps Iranian sales aren’t based on geopolitics? pic.twitter.com/a5L9qFRwZk

    — 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) January 13, 2023

    Maybe they’re quiet official sales, maybe they’re black market, maybe they’re captured from VVP’s forces, maybe something else, but it’s interesting.

    (via Oryx)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  64. 64.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: If it sounds like I’m yelling, I’m not really, or at least not at you. It’s the text effect—no affect. We should all do this in person, over beer.

    I do find the unwillingness to give Biden and Sullivan the benefit of the doubt a bit frustrating, though, given the spectacular things that they accomplished with respect to Ukraine in 2022.

  66. 66.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: In the spring, I was also skeptical. By the time of the deployment of HIMARS, it was clear that there was no grounds for skepticism.  It’s helped that Kos over at the Great Orange Satan has spelled-out the logistics issues for a lot of Western gear.  So I agree with  you about Biden/Sullivan.  Which confidence I do *not* extend to Scholz.  That fucker needs to get hit upside the head with a cluestick or ten.

  67. 67.

    cain

    @Chetan Murthy: I did like the TLTWSTW as a kid – but I never associated it with Christianity – I think you only see it if you are a Christian. Also, with stuff like witches, and what not  – youd think it is a material that you won’t likely see a Christian wanting to expose their kids too.

  68. 68.

    livewyre

    @Carlo Graziani: At the risk of cross-pollinating a bone of contention (with a hybrid metaphor): this reminds me of the Trump investigations, both in that on one hand the officials in charge aren’t getting credit for the details of the process that they’re legitimately responsible for, and that on the other hand maybe they’re better off without it and we shouldn’t need to put faith in them as long as the results speak for themselves. Hoping for a decisive outcome in both cases, naturally.

  70. 70.

    Ruckus

    @Carlo Graziani:

    My point is I know there are a lot of roadblocks and issues to just giving them everything but we’ve been seeing this for close to a full year now and while there are risks that Russia may go fuller moron here, it takes some time to make any thing we give them in the direction of warfare useful on the ground, the longer we stand still is the more death and destruction of all concerned. It doesn’t appear that Russia has lost much outside of Ukraine, although there have been some strikes, it is a rather bigger country than Ukraine (140M vs 41M) and as vlad has really zero regard for the vast majority of that 140M, he likely thinks it’s his right to throw the vast majority of his citizens in a war that benefits no one but the wealthy of his crew. And sure he’s quite likely to lose a lot but I’d also bet that he would care less if the vast majority die so he won’t be known as a loser.

    My entire point here is that ending this asap seems to be better for all concerned – other than vlad. And I just can’t seem to raise one iota of concern for him. Not even the smallest iota in the world.

  72. 72.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: I think that Scholz is ultimately a lost cause. He can’t evolve beyond his political education, which is the Willy Brandt-ist Ostpolitik, revised for current circumstances, but essentially a national consensus in Germany for so long that breaking with it is kind of like breaking wind at a Buckingham Palace tea party—it’s just not done.

    There are hopes for the next generation of German politicians, though.

  73. 73.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Ruckus: I don’t believe that anyone disagrees with that, including inside NSC. But we should keep in mind that the very senior people see, control, and understand a lot of factors that we can’t and won’t see. So the real issue is this: during the course of this year, have they earned enough of your trust in the proposition that they know what they are doing?

    Simple question, really.

  74. 74.

    way2blue

    @Chetan Murthy:

    I read the Narnia series to my kids at bedtime (as well as the Harry Potter series).  Narnia become a slog, but its Christian allegory went over our heads…

  75. 75.

    Another Scott

    A couple of links from the KyivIndependent News Feed:

    Bloomberg – Germany to give final decision on Leopard tank delivery to Ukraine next week:

    Germany will likely finalize their decision on supplying Ukraine with Leopard main battle tanks in the next week, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 13, citing two unnamed officials familiar with the matter.

    According to the officials, Berlin will decide ahead of the Ramstein defense summit on Jan. 20. The day before the gathering, German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht will meet with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

    Lambrecht will send “a clear message” at the Rammstein meeting regarding the Leopards, the report reads.

    […]

    Media – German defense minister to resign:

    Germany’s defense minister Christine Lambrecht plans to resign, German media reported on Feb. 13, citing a German government source, causing uncertainty at a time when Germany is weighing sending battle tanks to Ukraine.

    Ukraine and its European allies have been putting pressure on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to supply more military aid to Ukraine, including tanks.

    In recent weeks, several European countries have signaled a readiness to supply German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine. As the tanks are produced in Germany, sending them to Ukraine requires approval from the German government.

    Lambrecht had long been criticized for her response to the war in Ukraine. Calls for her resignation grew following a New Year’s Eve message posted on social media, during which Lambrecht mentions the war in Ukraine with fireworks in the background.

    In the video, Lambrecht also said that for her, the war in Ukraine was associated with “many special impressions, many encounters with interesting, great people,” confusing and angering many.

    A defense ministry spokesperson described the reports as “rumors that we don’t comment on,” Reuters reported.

    The announcement, and press conference next week, should be very interesting.

    Finally, Oryx often makes the point that (IIRC) Germany is #3 in supplying weapons to Ukraine (behind the US and the UK). They can probably do more, but so can France and Italy and … (and the USA).

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  76. 76.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: It’s been reported that we’ve interdicted a couple of large Iranian weapons shipments over the past couple of years. My guess is if anything Iranian is turning up in Ukrainian hands, it probably sources to those seized shipments.

  79. 79.

    way2blue

    I would like to think that the U.S. is already training Ukrainians on utilizing/maintaining their more sophisticated tanks et cetera even though it’s not yet ready to provide them.  So the start-up time is short if/when they’re finally sent to Ukraine.  Figther jets too…

  80. 80.

    Citizen Alan

    @YY_Sima Qian: The story I was always told was that the studio told Peter Jackson “We’ll let you make it as a trilogy. If you won’t do that, we’ll get someone cheaper to cram it all into a single movie.” And he couldn’t bear to see a crappy version of The Hobbit after putting so much of himself into LotR, so he decided to do it and just try to make the best of it. And it had its moments, IMO, though overall it was not a success. And in his defense, a lot of the problems were baked into the source material (15 male leads, most of whom get minimal character development–and to make things worst, most of them have rhyming names— and no female characters at all in the original text).

  81. 81.

    Ruckus

    @Carlo Graziani:

    You are of course correct, their picture is likely quite different and more complete than ours, but then this is a blog on the internet so….

    I’m sure there are things that no matter where we view from or our backgrounds that we are going to take wrong or at least with fewer actual facts, because we have zero access to them. We are most often giving our opinions rather than true systematic thought. As I am doing on this thread…..

  83. 83.

    Eolirin

    @YY_Sima Qian: Given how LotR was made, it’s not terribly surprising. It’s better to think of that as one really massive film that got cut up into parts than a normal trilogy. Completely different processes involved.

  85. 85.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Citizen Alan: The overwhelming CG, the unnecessary narrative digressions, the pointless extra characters (including fan service from the LoTR trilogy) on top of the already huge ensemble from the source material, the interminable run times, those were all creative decisions by Jackson & team. The films just feel bloated in every aspect. He could have chosen to make a trilogy w/ 1h45m run time each. Sometimes I do wonder if the Hobbit was turned into a pork barrel project for the New Zealand economy & Jackson’s myriad production companies.

    They had their moments, though, well worth the ticket price & purchase on iTunes. There are definitely worse movies out there. I just do not rewatch them nearly as often as I do the LOTR films.

  86. 86.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Eolirin: Definitely, I used to rewatch all of the appendices of the Extended Edition DVDs every year. That is ~ 18 hrs(?) of materials by themselves. The original trilogy was my introduction to Tolkien. As soon as I walked out of the screening for the Fellowship of the Ring, I just had to run to the nearest bookstore to buy the book trilogy, which I devoured in a few days. Then the Hobbit, then the Silmarillion, the Unfinished Tales, the Children of Húrin, Beren and Lúthien, & the Fall of Gondolin.

    It’s been a while since I have returned to Tolkien’s sub-creation, though.

  87. 87.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: “Major non-NATO ally” should suffice. Sometimes one supports an ally this doing the dying so that one does not need to shed blood. “Client States” have much more limited agency of their own, just a step above protectorates & trustee territories.

  88. 88.

    Fall in queue

    @Another Scott:

    I feel that one thing people forget in these discussions is that while Germany is not a small country, its economy is still barely a fifth the size of the US economy. It’s an interesting exercise to look at support for Ukraine, scaled by GDP:

    https://app.23degrees.io/view/F1tc2gv8QzFCs1ij-bar-stacked-horizontal-figure_3_4_csv_v2-1

    In the terms, Germany actually comes in a bit ahead of both the UK and the US.

    This is not to say they shouldn’t be doing more (they should!), but just to give some perspective.

    For what it’s worth, my sense is that the issue is less with Scholz or his government specifically, and more with modern Germany’s long standing ambivalence over its place in Europe.

     

     

     

  90. 90.

    Bupalos

    @Carlo Graziani: well, we’re arguing counterfactuals, but it’s very difficult to see how Russia could accomplish any of its goals via nukes. There is an avalanche of consequences perched over Russia’s head that would fall that is not primarily created by The United States or the Biden administration. The idea that our actions and inactions are the primary determinant of Putin’s actions is, I believe, born out of a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation and of Putin. I thus think that our restraint in fully arming Ukraine is foolish.

  92. 92.

    Chief Oshkosh

    @Chetan Murthy: I wonder what Scholz would do if the various countries who’ve stated that they want to send Leopards to Ukraine just do it. What’s Scholz going to do? Attack them? With what? Threaten to not sell them expensive, profitable German-made equipment in the future? Ha.

    Nah. Those countries should just send the tanks. Schoz will decry it in public, but likely will wet his beak on all the parts and munitions sales that will go on “behind his back.”

  93. 93.

    davecb

    @Kent wrote ​

    Failure to act also entails risk. That is what some of these people seem like they fail to understand.

    Military “appreciations” always include a course of action that is “don’t do anything”, so the people doing the planning are forced to consider the cost and risks that come with inaction.​

  94. 94.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: I also felt that Jackson took liberties with the text that were probably driven by the limitations (!) of the runtime.

    It would have been interesting to see what he could have done given a 5-year TV series of 1 hour episodes instead. The new format does give directors of novel adaptations a great deal of freedom that was never available when their output had to be shown in theatres.

    I didn’t like Jackson’s LOTR, but I was awestruck by They Shall Not Grow Old. What he and his team accomplished with 1914-1918-vintage hand-cranked footage, both technically and artistically, beggars belief.

  95. 95.

    Geminid

    There are reports of a devasting Russian missile strike in Dnibro city that collapsed part of an apartment block. First reports were of two persons killed and 27 injured; rescue and recovery efforts are under way.

  97. 97.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Bupalos:

    @Carlo Graziani: well, we’re arguing counterfactuals, but it’s very difficult to see how Russia could accomplish any of its goals via nukes. There is an avalanche of consequences perched over Russia’s head that would fall that is not primarily created by The United States or the Biden administration.

    It is equally difficult to see how Russia could accomplish any of its goals by bombarding Ukrainian urban infrastructure with intermittent missile barrages. And yet their decision process has led them to conclude that this is part of a winning strategy.

    Alluding to a vague “avalanche of consequences” ignores the plain fact that Russia has acted heedless of consequences in this war. There is a real question here that is routinely ignored in discussions of the progress of the war: Russian army officers train according to doctrine inherited from the Soviet army, which always regarded nuclear and chemical weapons as valid tactical tools, employable to create conditions favorable for advance/exploitation. They still have the gear in storage somewhere, and all the relevant field manuals. Their war has been in trouble, and all their objectives stymied since April. It is a virtual certainty that STAVKA has examined proposals for NBC use at some stages of the war, if only out of desperation. And their other madcap acts of desperation, such as flash-conscription, or urban missile attacks, are clearly either hopeless or fraught with self-destructive consequences, or both.

    Moreover, at the time of the Kerch bridge attack, which many Russians took as  psychological blow analogous to that inflicted by the 9/11 attack on the US, there were many calls for use of nuclear weapons in retaliation, and there seemed to be a clear danger of wild overreaction by the Russians.

    And yet there has been no  use of NBC, whether on the battlefield or for retaliation—just threats. You don’t find that odd?

    I feel, and have felt since last spring, that the reason for this restraint has nothing to do with fear of uncertain possible consequences, but rather with the terror of one certain inescapable consequence. Which is due to the fact that NBC use is one of a small number of bright red lines for triggering direct NATO intervention that the Biden administration communicated to the Russians at all levels early in the war. The administration set out the conditions for deterrence, and as a consequence the Russians were, and are, deterred.

  98. 98.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I really enjoyed They Shall Not Grow Old. That documentary felt like Jackson returning to his simpler roots, leveraging the immense resources he had accrued from his success.

    I think even a 5 seasons long TV series would (& IMO should) have skipped Tom Bombadill & left the Shire w/ in haste.

    Seeing what Amazon has done w/ Rings of Power, ughh! Such spectacular failure on almost every level & every aspect of filmmaking, except perhaps set design. Give Jackson US$ 1B! & give him the rights to the Silmarillion to tell a proper tale.

  99. 99.

    the pale scot @ gmail

    @Carlo Graziani:

    And yet there has been no  use of NBC, whether on the battlefield or for retaliation—just threats. You don’t find that odd?

    I ‘d assume that the current RU army is completely unequipped for NBC warfare. Any equipment is from the Cold War, probably from the 60’s-70’s They’d kill more of their own on the battlefield, especially with chemicals. They could use them on civilian targets, ensuring that everyone with the exception of NK and Maybe Iran mobilizes against them

  100. 100.

    Bill Arnold

    @the pale scot @ gmail:

    They’d kill more of their own on the battlefield, especially with chemicals.

    Soviet, and perhaps current Russian doctrine has been to use nuclear weapons on enemy force concentrations, then seize the blasted hellscape with troops in armored personnel carriers, which provide some (not full) protection from prompt fallout. With protection to at least keep troops from breathing radioactive dust. Their troops are expendable.
    Since Ukrainians do not fight with massed formations, this has not really been even an option.
    As far as attacks on civilian populations, e.g. cities, the presumption of Russian rationality is too weak IMO to justify Western recklessness, given that some estimates of casualties in a thermonuclear war run into the billions, mostly through starvation and other disruptions, and more if civilization collapses enough to disrupt remaining agriculture/transportation, etc. (Estimates vary; different atmospheric models are involved and there are also agendas involved and political motivations for minimization of casualty estimates and risk estimates. Regional thermonuclear wars could also be quite bad even outside those regions.).
    Basically, given the range of estimated numbers and risk estimates, (and loosely borrowing from e.g. physics), “expectation values” vary widely, but e.g. a 2 percent risk of thermonuclear war for some course of action could be equivalent to killing 40 million humans.

    I’m not saying that Sullivan and crew’s estimates are correct, but I am sure that they are making them in good faith and are not pulling them from ideological asses. (The Reagan 80s were pretty bad; ideological asses were in power.)

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