Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Trump’s cabinet: like a magic 8 ball that only gives wrong answers.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

How stupid are these people?

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

I did not have this on my fuck 2025 bingo card.

You come for women, you’re gonna get your ass kicked.

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

The real work of an opposition party is to hold the people in power accountable.

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

We can show the world that autocracy can be defeated.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

“A king is only a king if we bow down.” – Rev. William Barber

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 327: Bakhmut & Soledar Grind On

War for Ukraine Day 327: Bakhmut & Soledar Grind On

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Apparently there was some confusion regarding how one orders the calendar with NEIVANMADE’s art. According to the tweet I posted last night, they’re available from Back and Alive, which is a charity supporting Ukrainian troops. Here’s the link to their website, but I can’t figure out how to order the calendars.

Before we get fully started, here’s the butcher’s bill for Dnipro:

More on Dnipro after the jump.

Finland’s Prime Minister speaks, everyone best listen!

A bit more from Politico Europe:

Russia would not have invaded Ukraine had it been a member of NATO, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said Tuesday, adding that was the primary motivation for her country’s application to join the military alliance.

Marin said she was “sure” that Vladimir Putin would not have launched the invasion had Kyiv already been a member. “We can look down the history and ask ourselves the question, should Ukraine already be a member of NATO?” she told the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, adding that “then there wouldn’t be a war in Ukraine and this is why also Finland, Sweden is ratifying a NATO membership.”

She added that in 2014 when Russia attacked Crimea, Europe and its allies should have acted more robustly. “We need to learn from this day,” Marin told the gathering of high-level politicians and business people in the Swiss Alps.

“We want to become a member of NATO because we don’t ever again want war in Finland,” she said, adding that she hoped the ratification process for Sweden and Finland would go “as fast as possible.”

Hungary and Turkey still need to ratify the joint NATO bid of Sweden and Finland.

While Budapest has said it would support the military bloc’s latest expansion and sign off on it early this year, Ankara has yet to follow suit.

“There shouldn’t be any problems and I have also personally talked with [Turkish] President [Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan and he said what he has said also in public, that there isn’t that big of issues with Finland, maybe some with Sweden, but for our perspective, it’s very important that Finland and Sweden are going to NATO together because we are sharing the same security,” Marin said.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Fellow Ukrainians!

Today the rescue operation in Dnipro has been completed.

79 people were wounded or injured by this Russian strike.

The list of the dead includes 45 Ukrainians, including 6 children, including a boy who was only 11 months old…

Children and civilians are enemies for Russia. Obviously, this could only happen because Russia has turned into an enemy of all mankind.

I thank each and every person in the world who helps us to defend ourselves against terror!

Today we heard very important news from Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte. The news is actually a continuation of our recent negotiations with him.

Ukraine will be provided with another Patriot battery. Thank you, Mark! That is, we already have three guaranteed batteries. But this is only the beginning. We are working on new decisions to strengthen our air defense.

Today, I discussed defense cooperation with Federal President of Germany Steinmeier. We are actively preparing for a new meeting in the Ramstein format. We are preparing new important diplomatic steps – we also discussed them today.

The annual forum in Davos, traditionally a powerful global political and economic platform, has started today.

The world hears Ukraine in Davos – they know what Russia has done to Dnipro, they know what terrorists are doing to Kherson, Kharkiv, our Donbas and other territories Russia brought death to.

And we are lobbying for increased global pressure on the terrorist state.

I am confident that following this week, the world will see more active and influential supporters of the establishment of a Tribunal for Russian aggression and a special mechanism to compensate for the losses from the war at the expense of Russian assets.

It is very important that the First Lady of Ukraine presented all the elements of our Peace Formula in Davos today, including the fundamental clause on justice, which envisages full liability of Russian terrorists for everything they have done.

And the world’s support for our diplomatic initiative is very much felt.

We are doing everything to ensure that this support becomes truly global and that steps to end Russian aggression and return security are taken by all influential actors in international relations.

Today, I held a meeting with the participation of the Prosecutor General and the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine to identify the culprits of the attack on Dnipro.

Every day there is more and more factual information and legal steps of our state. And all this will end with sentences for all these Russian murderers.

I want to thank all the employees of the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and all our partners, our intelligence, all special services that are working on the necessary materials for trials against rashists.

I would like to thank all volunteers, public figures, especially journalists who are helping the investigation.

And, of course, I thank all our warriors, each and every one of them who defends the state as part of all our defense and security forces, who is doing everything to oust the Russian army from Ukraine.

First of all, I thank the warriors who are now at the front, who are fighting for our freedom, who are true heroes!

When we oust the occupiers from our land, it will be a matter of time when justice will return, when sentences for Russian murderers will be pronounced.

Glory to all our heroes!

Eternal memory to all those whose lives were taken by Russian aggression.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments from Izium and Bakhmut:

Bakhmut:

This is the Belarusian regiment fighting on behalf of the Ukrainians.

Soledar:

We’ve got an identification on the Wagner commander in Soledar:

Here’s the rest from the ThreadReader App:

3/ In the video, Prigozhin doesn’t name him but calls him an experienced fighter who took Soledar “without chewing snot in a fortnight”.
4/ The Dossier Centre names him and says: “He was born in 1981 in Rostov region, graduated from Ulyanovsk Guards Suvorov Military School in 1998 and from Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School in 2003.
5/ “Elizarov served in the 108th regiment of the 7th Guards Airborne Assault Division in Novorossiysk, where he commanded a platoon and a company. He was also a team leader in the 10th Separate Special Forces Brigade in Molkino.
6/ “During his service he took part in combat operations in the North Caucasus. In 2014, Elizarov’s military career was derailed. He was accused of fraud with a service apartment – Elizarov provided false documents during its privatisation.
7/ “The court sentenced him to three years of suspended imprisonment and a fine of 100,000 roubles [$1,454 at today’s exchange rates]. Elizarov unsuccessfully sued the Ministry of Defence for the flat and was evicted in 2016.
8/ “Since at least 2016, Elizarov has been listed as a member of the Wagner, call sign Lotos, number M-0136. [Note – he was identified by his call sign of ‘Lotos’ in a recent post by the Wagner-linked Grey Zone Telegram channel.]
9/ “He fought in Syria, where he was wounded by shrapnel in his thigh in 2017, worked as a trainer in Central African Republic in 2018-2019, and commanded an assault unit in Libya in 2021.
10/ “In September 2022, Elizarov appeared with Prigozhin and the governor of the Volgograd region at the funeral of Wagnerite Alexei Nagin.
11/ “The video footage shows Elizarov wearing his awards – a Hero of the Russian Federation star and hero stars of the unrecognised Donesk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.”
12/ Meanwhile, while Elizarov’s star appears to be rising, Prigozhin’s appears to be falling somewhat in the aftermath of Soledar. A source tells the well-connected VChK-OGPU Telegram channel:
13/ “It has now become clear that Prigozhin’s influence is absolutely not as huge as everyone (and he himself too) thought. After Soledar, everything went totally different from the plan he had hoped for. It seemed that Prigozhin was about to replace Gerasimov with his own man.
14/ “But everything turned against Prigozhin himself and [Wagner]. Losses are hell, which is generally predictable and understandable given the task at hand. They are trying to cheer up the fighters morally, this was not much practiced in private military companies before.
15/ “But on the whole it is sad, of course. With such an approach the storming of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk will need more men than the ‘Musicians’ ever had at any one time.
16/ “A small observation – Wagner has come to be referred to internally as “the army” and the military uses the term “unit” [i.e. Wagner calls itself an ‘army’ while the actual Russian army calls Wagner a mere ‘unit’].
17/ “It’s hard to tell if this is just a war of words, or if it’s some kind of innuendo”. /end Sources: t.me/dossiercenter/…
t.me/vchkogpu/35965

For anyone wondering, ChrisOwiki is Chris Owens. Owens wrote the military history of L Ron Hubbards service in the US Navy. Which is, perhaps, one of the most niche topics one could pick!

Speaking of Wagner mercenaries, The Financial Times reports that one fled to Norway and is seeking asylum:

A former Russian paramilitary fighting in Ukraine has promised to give evidence against the notorious Wagner group after making a dramatic escape and seeking asylum in Norway.

Andrei Medvedev says he is a former commander of a Wagner unit who left the front lines in November and went on the run until he clambered across two border fences in northern Norway last week.

Tarjei Sirma-Tellefsen, police chief of staff in the Norwegian region of Finnmark, said a border patrol that also included the military arrested the man early on Friday after he illegally crossed from Russia.

Medvedev’s high-profile escape is the first known instance of a former member of Wagner defecting to the west since Russia’s president Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion last February.

In a video posted on Sunday by Vladimir Osechkin, an exiled Russian human rights activist, Medvedev said he fled from the front lines in November after four months fighting in Ukraine.

Medvedev claimed Wagner had extended his contract indefinitely after it expired and threatened him with extrajudicial reprisals if he refused to fight.

Much more at the link!

Dnipro:

Mariinka:

Saltivka:

Yes, Putin has ordered a significant increase in the size of the Russian armed forces. However, it is to be a three year build up, so this isn’t a call for a 1.5 million person mobilization right away:

He also did this:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

38Comments

  8. 8.

    Subsole

    Two things:

    It is grimly amusing to hear the Finns say they don’t want war with Russia. Given how the Finns fought last time, the Russians damn sure don’t want that war either…

    Second, whatever happened with that convict that was saying Prigozhin was one of the ‘Offended’? Any developments there??

  10. 10.

    John Revolta

    Even if Putin manages to strongarm another million and a half poor souls into his army, arming and equipping them is gonna be another story. I don’t think there are that many WWII rifles left to go around even now.

  11. 11.

    Adam L Silverman

    @John Revolta: There are, but you’ll have to hit every gun show in the US for the next couple of years and pay the markup from the collectors for them.

  13. 13.

    Wombat Probability Cloud

    @John Revolta: Likewise, thanks to Adam for his take on things every night. I don’t have the military experience to offer suggestions (conscientious objector of the war in Vietnam) but his posts are a daily reminder of how each of us can contribute more to support Ukraine.

  15. 15.

    Jay

    I’m in Davos to argue for the frozen Russian $350 billion to be used for the defence of Ukraine. But I won’t be doing it in the halls of the WEF because they raised the price of attendance to $250k for me (3x what they charged before). Russians are happy https://t.co/COKhr2p6UV— Bill Browder (@Billbrowder) January 16, 2023

  16. 16.

    pat

    I was talking to an acquaintance the other day and she said she knew some colleagues from Ukraine. We did not get into particulars but she did not seem to agree with my take on the war, and when she referred to Kyiv she called it Kiev. And she mentioned that Zelenskyy has a house in Israel.

    All of this made me think (later, when I was lying awake thinking about this exchange) that these Ukrainians probably came to the States when Ukraine was still a corrupt client state of russia.

    s

  17. 17.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @pat: Or maybe she is lying about what the purported colleagues from Ukraine had told her, to hide the fact that these are her own beliefs based on Russian disinformation.

  18. 18.

    Adam L Silverman

    @John Revolta: I’m not kidding. Big market for Mosin Nagants in the US. Or there was, I haven’t checked recently.

    Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.

  21. 21.

    Hoppie

    For anyone wondering, ChrisOwiki is Chris Owens. Owens wrote the military history of L Ron Hubbards service in the US Navy. Which is, perhaps, one of the most niche topics one could pick!

    Which included Hubbard’s ordering his ship to fire on the (Mexican) Coronado Islands just south of San Diego (thinking wrongly they were uninhabited American territory).  It is a landmark we point out to all of our fellow S(cience) F(iction) fans who visit SD.  On a half-way clear day you can see the Coronados from beer-bar Fathom on the fishing pier.

    And thank you Adam for the updates — I spend most of the waking day among you, the Grauniad (for the least toxic MSM take), and Kos.

  22. 22.

    Mike in DC

    Adam, do you think Putin wants to either have a clear win or an “exit ramp” by the time next year’s presidential elections roll around?  I know they’re basically a formality, but why provide an avenue for disgruntled Russian citizens to express their displeasure?

  24. 24.

    Carlo Graziani

    Owens wrote the military history of L Ron Hubbards service in the US Navy. Which is, perhaps, one of the most niche topics one could pick!

    Good sign, in my opinion. Historians who drill down on niche topics are generally more serious scholars than those who choose the huge themes.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The Austrian Theresan Military Academy just posted a video that looked back at the war in 2022 & looking forward in 2023.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54daqNraMxE

    I think they give the Russian military far too much credit for its operational “successes” in Sieverodonetsk/Lysychansk or Bakhmut/Soledar, or strategic “successes” in damaging Ukraine’s power infrastructure. However, it is a useful reminder that underestimating Russian combat power in attritional warfare is dangerous, in spite of its obvious shortcomings. The Russians have shown they can adapt, & Ukraine needs a lot more help in terms of heavy equipment in the next weeks & months.

  26. 26.

    Carlo Graziani

    Yes, Putin has ordered a significant increase in the size of the Russian armed forces. However, it is to be a three year build up, so this isn’t a call for a 1.5 million person mobilization right away

    I have to admit that I was surprised at how effective the fall flash mobilization was at getting bodies to the front. My mistake was, I suppose, assuming that the Russians would want trained, capable soldiers, rather than mere self-propelling meat.

    It’s difficult to say what to expect of this 3-year expansion plan. Much depends on war developments. Russian planning appears to be based on the alternate-reality view that they are still winning the war, and will bring it to a successful conclusion soon. Otherwise they would be talking about 3-month planning horizons, not 3-year horizons. And their expansion plan necessarily depend on their rebuilding all the new-recruit training resources that they burned up when they sent everything to the front. That could only plausibly happen when the war is not sucking every resource from them to stave off defeat.

    In other words, they are smoking crack. Must be good stuff, though.

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Yeah, the 3-year horizon is detached from the reality of their pressing needs. However, they have mobilized for the short to medium term, too. As mentioned in previously updates, ~ half of the mobliks are getting trained in Russian & Belarus for the Spring-Summer campaign season. The 3-year plan may be Putin signaling that he intends to maintain a larger standing military (which given the diminished means requires a level of militarization of the economy akin to the fUSSR, & we know how that ended), after what he assumes to be victory in Ukraine (still detached from reality), against what he perceives to be the heightening threat of the expanded NATO (which his invasion precipitated, both the expansion & the current unity).

  28. 28.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The Russians have shown they can adapt, & Ukraine needs a lot more help in terms of heavy equipment in the next weeks & months.

    Yes. But the Ukrainians have demonstrated their flair for combined-arms warfare, which furnishes a powerful argument for their advocates. Not coincidentally, there is a clear shift in the character of the military aid in the live pipeline. The leading edge of the offensive ground assault supplies is visible (NATO-grade tanks, APCs, infantry obstacle-breaching vehicles, etc.) By late February, the upgunning could be affecting some battalion-level units.

    Much as the Russians may be planning their set-piece Spring campaign, I doubt very much that they will be allowed to complete their preparations, much less to ever take the initiative again in this war.

  29. 29.

    Andrya

    I’m surprised that putin announced the 1.5 million buildup so far in advance.  If I lived in russia and had a 14 -17 year old son- or even a 12 – 13 year old son- my number 1 priority, on hearing about the buildup,   would be to get that kid out of the country by any possible means whatsoever.  Is putin so wrapped in his deranged egotism/echo chamber that he doesn’t see that many russian families will respond that way?

    As always Adam, thanks for doing this.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I don’t disagree, but NATO grade armor have yet to arrive, & the numbers being discussed (in the dozens) are not nearly enough to be impactful beyond the tactical level. Ukraine needs hundreds each of main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, to stand up the 2 corps that could be used to thrust toward Kreminna or Melitopol directions. The unknown is whether the Russian Army can man the entire defensive perimeter, w/ the addition of the mobliks,  to prevent the kind of rout suffered at Kupyansk & Kherson. If they cannot, & there are thinly manned weak point, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will take advantage again, & what they have now + the AMX-10RCs/Bradleys/Marders that are coming will do a lot of damage.

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: A lot of people forget that, for all of Finnish Army’s successes & the Soviet Red Army’s failings, the Winter War ended w/ the USSR coercing Finland into accepting peace on terms very favorable to the former. Of course, the counter to that Ukraine is getting a lot more assistance than Finland did, Ukraine itself has more resources than Finland at the time, & modern Russia does not have nearly the resources to burn through that the USSR did.

  32. 32.

    Geminid

    @YY_Sima Qian: Another difference in the Finnish-Russian “Winter War” was that Stalin was not trying to destroy Finland as a nation but instead wanted to extend the USSR’s border farther beyond Leningrad and gain control of strategic islands that controlled the sea access to Leningrad.

    British authors Anthony Read and David Fisher discuss the runup to the Winter War in their book The Deadly Embrace: Hitler, Stalin and the Nazi-Soviet Pact, 1939-1941 (1989). They say the Soviets first proposed a deal: they would swap land further north for an area near Leningrad in order to make that city more defensible, plus a strategically located Finnish island.

    According to Read and Fisher, Finnish Field Marshal Mannerheim recommended his government take the deal. They refused and Russia invaded. Mannerheim then led the valiant Finnish defense that eventually was overwhelmed by superior Soviet resources.

    The main focus of Read and Fisher’s book is the process that led Europe’s two biggest enemies to the temporary alliance embodied in the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, signed late August, 1939. It is a gripping account and I cannot recommend it highly enough.

  33. 33.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Geminid: That’s a good point! I will add the book to the reading list.

    I think Putin sought to occupy everything east of the Dnipro & along the Black Sea coast, leaving a rump Ukraine that is landlocked & run by a pliant government. Much more ambitious goals than Stalin had for Finland, w/ much less favorable balance of power.

  34. 34.

    PaulB

    Likely a dying or dead thread, but the claim about Zelenskyy buying a home in Israel originated on Instagram last October:

    “I see that Zelensky just bought his parents an $8,000,000 villa, complete with a salt water pool & 3 brand new vehicles,” reads text included in the post.”But let’s just keep on sending billions of our tax dollars for ‘foreign aid to Ukraine.'”

    The Instagram post now has an overlay pointing out that it’s “False Information.”

    USA Today, in a November fact check, pointed out that “The property pictured in the posts is still listed for sale on Sotheby’s international website.”

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2022/11/11/fact-check-false-claim-zelenkyy-bought-parents-8-m-home/10609965002/

  35. 35.

    Bill Arnold

    @PaulB:
    But that story and similar stories about supposed Zelinskyy mansions, which I too saw repeated among tankies and other propagandists for Russia, were about property in Ukraine (also Florida, because propagandists can’t resist Florida angles) The Israeli angle is unusual. And probably cluelessly anti-Semitic, given Israel’s official hostility frostiness towards Ukraine.

  36. 36.

    Bill Arnold

    @PaulB:
    There’s another story at some Russian propaganda outlet that I do not recognize that Z’s parents bought a “50 square meter” (538 square feet) “mansion” in Israel for 790k euros. Amusingly, the headline says 8m dollars. (They don’t say US dollars, so perhaps that part is true for some country’s dollars. And the headline is what people read.)
    I’m done digging. My opinion of such propagandists involves unhealthy thoughts of wood chippers and/or bullets to the back of the head. Also, it’s a work day.

  37. 37.

    Geminid

    @Bill Arnold: Israel is not especially hostile to Ukraine, and has given non-lethal aid. They just won’t supply weapons, even defensive anti-aircraft systems. Polls show that a majority of Israelis support Ukraine’s side in this war, but a majority also supports their country’s neutral posture.

    The new Foreign Minister did say that the country was tilting towards Russia now. I’m not sure if there have been practical consequences, although indirect assistance to Ukraine that neither country will acknowledge may be curtailed now. I just assumed the minister was speaking for Prime Minister Netanyahu, and no one inside Israel or out takes “Bibi” at his word.

  38. 38.

    Bill Arnold

    @Geminid:

    but a majority also supports their country’s neutral posture.

    Sure, but that “neutrality” is an arrangement with Russia to allow unimpeded Israeli military aircraft strikes north of Israel.
    The Russians could flex at any time, and apply additional conditions. Perhaps they already have.
    The overtly genocidal character of some(/too much) of the Russian state propaganda should be more concerning for Israelis, IMO. (I don’t read much Israeli media, though.)

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